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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 07/10/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 07-10-2001
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap: Selling their winners is sign of nervousness 
Market Sentiment: Tips When Entering Bear Country 
Play-of-the-Day: AstroPower - APWR 
Watch List: Make Money in Tech Stocks!

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       7-10-2001          High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10173.08 -123.76 10335.63 10162.71 1.24 bln   1223/1861	
NASDAQ   1963.00 - 63.92  2045.12  1960.15 1.62 bln   1370/2364
S&P 100   608.43 -  9.50   620.96   607.59   Totals   2593/4225
S&P 500  1180.93 - 12.26  1203.43  1179.93             
RUS 2000  478.12 -  7.84   487.38   477.50 
DJ TRANS 2775.98 +   .98  2789.17  2764.15 
VIX        26.53 +  1.98    26.70    24.31 
Put/Call Ratio      0.94
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Selling their winners is sign of nervousness by Jeff Bailey

We're starting to see stock after stock that had been holding up 
against the NASDAQ's downward trend finally start to see some 
meaningful selling.  Often times, this also gives hint that the 
"Last of the Mohicans" are starting to throw in the towel as they 
sell their winners and hold onto the losers.

eBay Chart - $1 box



Shares of eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) have held up remarkably well 
considering what has been happening to the broader NASDAQ 
Composite (COMPX) and even the CBOE Internet Index (INX.X).  
However, the buying in bonds has left little money to find its 
way into shares of eBay and all that is left are sellers.  Often 
times what happens is that some market participants continue to 
hold onto their losing trades and when the margin calls come in, 
they end up selling their winners.  eBay has been a big winner 
since giving its first "buy signal" back in early April where it 
established a bullish price objective of $64.  Unless the market 
begins selling bond, eBay might also achieve one of its latest 
bearish price objectives.  The current bearish price objective 
using the vertical count technique from the point and figure 
chart indicates a potential long-term bearish price objective of 
$48.  This vertical count could grow as the sell signal column 
was just established today.  Since this is the case, I also like 
to look at any other sell signals to help me in my analysis.  
I've pointed out this sell signal (column of O's from 63-59) that 
indicated a bearish price objective of $53.  A trader can now 
begin assessing potential risk/reward profiles for this stock.  
Just remember that eBay didn't run from $41 straight to $64 (and 
higher to $71) there were pullbacks along the way.  I don't know 
the future, but I'm thinking there will be some rallies in the 
stock before or if it trades $53-$48.  Remember, this has been a 
strong stock in a weak market.  Should the market strengthen, a 
trader needs to be ready to lock in gains on the stock or keep 
his/her losses small.

CBOE Internet Index - last six months



Last Thursday's wrap title "Internet turnaround looks to be all 
talk" looks to have come to fruition.  I didn't get a lot of fan 
mail for that one, but today's breaking of the 173 level is hint 
that this index is lower and bearish traders will surely be 
targeting the 161 level short-term.

When comparing the CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) to eBay (EBAY) it 
becomes readily apparent just how strong shares of EBAY have 
been.  Today's breaking of the 173 level in the INX.X and the 
triple bottom sell signal in EABY at $60 are not a coincidence.  
What we're seeing here is that Internet players that have held 
onto many of their losing stocks in the group have finally had 
enough, and now they're ready to lock in profits on EBAY.  EBAY 
is analogous to the sledge hammer with many internet stocks being 
the nails.  If the Index is going to head lower, I'm expecting 
EBAY to provide the downward thump that drives the nails into the 
wood.

It's not just EBAY and the Internets either.  At this point of 
the market decline, you can look at the Networking Index (NWX.X) 
which has been the weakest of technology sectors.  Then start 
looking at stocks like Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO).  Not that 
CSCO has been anywhere near as impressive as EBAY, but it is the 
big gun in the networking sector.  Notice how the NWX.X broke to 
another 52-week low today, but CSCO still trades some 20% above 
its 52-week low of $13.18.

Once you start looking at some of the technology indexes and how 
technically weak they are beginning to get once again, then start 
looking at some of the broader indexes that contain stocks from 
several sectors.  This goes hand-in-hand what we try and teach 
every day in our commentary.  MARKET, SECTOR and STOCK.  

What I think will turn things around is what I've been writing 
about for at least 9 months in OptionInvestor.com, 
IndexSkybox.com and now PremierInvestor.net.  We've got to see 
the MARKET sell bonds.  

This morning's higher stock prices were quickly reversed when 
bond YIELDS all turned red.  Heck, the 5-year YIELD never did get 
green as MARKET participants immediately were gobbling up the 5-
year bond from the open.  I firmly believe that this morning's 
higher stock prices were a "head fake" put on by market makers 
roping the smaller investor into a trap.  That is unless the 
smaller investor was watching bond YIELDS and saw that the market 
had an appetite for bonds instead of stocks.

WATCH THOSE BOND YIELDS!  I felt that the 30-year YIELD needed to 
get above the 5.8% YIELD level for stocks to have a chance at a 
rally.  That was at 30-year YIELD 5.769%.  We've now witnessed 
the 30-year YIELD fall (buying in bonds causes YIELD to fall) to 
5.664% and the first level of support I see is at 5.62%, which is 
the rounding 200-day MA.  Suffice it to say.  Until I see 
something happen in the bond market that spells of selling, I'm 
going to be wearing a long fuzzy muzzle and have some relatively 
long claws growing out the end of my fingertips.  That's a 
description of a bear.

Joe Kernen from CNBC made an interesting comment today.  He asked 
the question "what if everyone just stopped selling even though 
there is bad news?"  I think his thought was, if everyone just 
stopped selling their stocks, then they would go higher.  I've 
thought this from time to time and that would be wonderful.  

I also remember thinking "I wish everyone would quit buying 
JDSU so I can get some on a pullback at $80 before it goes to 
$140."  In the end, there is nothing you or I can do to control 
stock prices.  All we can do is trade the trend.  Oh... and watch 
those bond YIELDS!


================
Market Sentiment
================

Tips When Entering Bear Country by Jeffrey Canavan

According to the Alaska Outdoor Journal, bears are curious, 
intelligent, and potentially dangerous animals.  Respecting bears 
and learning proper behavior in their territory will help so that 
if you encounter a bear, neither of you will suffer.  

Here are some tips.

Bears Are Always Looking for Something to Eat
Bears have about 6 months to fatten up for the long winter, and 
human food, garbage, and stocks make for an easy meal.  Don't be 
foolish and let bears feed on your portfolio.

Don't Crowd Bears.  
Bears are defensive of their personal space, and can react 
aggressively if that space is violated.  There is no need to 
approach a bear and try to rip a stock from its mouth.  
Eventually the bear will get bored and walk away from the stock, 
making it safer to pick up.

Keep a Clean Campsite
Bears have keen noses, so wash your dishes, keep your stops 
close, and avoid smelly food like bacon, fish, or shares of 
Lucent.

Bears Don't Like Surprises
If you enjoy hiking, camping, or buying stocks in bear country, 
make your presence know by singing, talking loudly, or tying a 
bell to your portfolio.  If possible, travel with a group, 
preferably an institution.   Groups are noisier and tend to scare 
bears away.

Don't Run 
Bears often make bluff charges, sometimes coming within 5 feet of 
stops, without making contact.  But like dogs, bears will chase 
fleeing stocks.  Bears have been clocked at speeds up to 35 mph, 
and can easily run down a bull.

Play Dead
If you have followed all the above tips, but you are still 
attacked by a smaller bear, like a black bear, fight back 
vigorously by hedging your position.  If you are attacked by a 
brown, kodiak, or grizzly bear, lie flat on your stomach, curl up 
in a ball, put your hands behind your neck, and kiss your butt 
goodbye.  

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility  
VIX   26.53  
VXN   56.20

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total           .94        539,497       505,530
Equity Only     .92        447,667       410,670
OEX            1.32         16,297        21,435
QQQ             .41         60,611        24,848

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          36     - 6      Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    34     - 2      Bear Confirmed
DOW           34       -      Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       54       -      Bear Alert  

Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 
30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

10-Day Arms Index  1.34  

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1221           1860
NASDAQ    1370           2368

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE        79            64
NASDAQ      67           100

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Advisory Sentiment   Bullish   Bearish  Correction  
                       50%      25.5%      24.5%

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/03/01
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong. 

S&P 500
The net bearish position of commercial traders increased for the 
third straight week.  We are still far away from the most bearish 
reading of the year (111,956), but this is a trend bullish traders 
want to see reversed.  Also disturbing for bulls is the fact that 
small traders, who tend to be wrong, have over twice as many long 
positions as short positions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
6/19/01      301,376   371,121   (69,745)   (10.37%)
6/26/01      307,889   379,955   (72,066)   (10.48%)
7/03/01      316,543   395,410   (78,867)   (11.08%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 41,144) - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      % of OI
6/19/01        128,296    56,038    72,258     39.20%
6/26/01        130,914    56,269    74,645     39.88%
7/03/01        133,098    54,865    78,233     41.62%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01
 
NASDAQ-100
I must admit that this data is a bit baffling.  Commercial 
traders have been slowly reducing their net bearish position for 
the past six weeks.  This is the only index where institutions 
are getting less bearish.  Could it be that the "smart money" is 
getting less bearish on technology?
  
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
6/19/01       23,480    34,097    (10,617)  (18.44%)
6/26/01       26,263    35,690    ( 9,427)  (15.22%)
7/03/01       26,544    34,880    ( 8,336)  (13.57%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net      % of OI
6/19/01       14,284     8,403    5,881      25.92%
6/26/01       10,519     6,064    4,455      26.86%
7/03/01       10,443     7,063    3,380      19.31%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01


DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
It looks like institutions have given up on the Dow based on the 
increase in their net bearish position, and the performance of 
IBM lately.  At the same time, small traders are on the brink of 
turning net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
6/19/01       12,346    10,470    1,876      8.2% 
6/26/01       11,371    12,759   (1,388)    (5.8%)
7/03/01       12,761    14,623   (1,862)    (6.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
6/19/01        3,844     7,555    (3,711)    (32.56%)
6/26/01        4,756     6,341    (1,585)    (14.28%)
7/03/01        4,708     5,715    (1,007)    ( 9.66%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01
-----------------------------------------------------------------


===============
Play-of-the-Day
===============

AstroPower - APWR Closed:$44.72 Change:-4.76 Stop:$48.00

Original Comments When Selected On July 5th:
The Newark, Delaware-based AstroPower is the largest manufacturer 
of solar electric power products based in the U.S. with a 24-percent 
share of the domestic market.  This places them just behind industry 
leader Siemens Solar (37-percent) and almost even with BP 
(25-percent).  The company makes photovoltaic solar cells, modules 
and panels.  Their proprietary manufacturing process allows them 
to continuously produce silicon sheets and make the cells virtually 
any size.  European sales account for over 50-percent of sales.  
The company has been active in developing partnerships with 
homebuilders such as U.S. Homes, Shea Homes and Pardee Homes, to 
install solar systems into new homes.  

On a fundamental basis, AstroPower shares are expensive.  Although 
2001 revenue growth of 59-percent is certainly healthy, it is not 
high enough to justify a forward P/E of 87 for 2001 and 52 for 2002. 
Particularly when compared to the industry average P/E of 32.  
Still, AstroPower financial performance is impressive.  After 
earning 27-cents per share on sales of $46.6 million in 2001, 
analysts forecast the firm will earn 53-cents on sales of 
$74 million in 2001 and 93-cents on $107 million in 2002.  The 
company has a strong balance sheet with $86 million in the bank 
and no long-term debt.

The reason for this Bearish selection is a sharp deterioration of 
the technical picture for APWR shares.  Although the shares rallied 
from the session low of $36.25 on June 20th to reach a high of 
$54.99 last Friday the 29th, it was still within a larger downtrend 
that extended back to May 18th.  To confirm a bullish reversal of 
that downtrend required the shares to break the upper trend line at 
$52.00.  The June 29th high and subsequent $52.14 close represented 
a failed attempt to break that trend  line.  Since then, profit 
taking has set in and selling pressure has been on the rise with 
three consecutive losing sessions on increasing volume.  A 
one-minute chart of trading on Thursday seals the bearish case with 
weak downward pressure throughout with little resistance by the 
bulls.  Downside support exists at $47.50 and we would recommend 
waiting for a move through this level before taking a position.  
The following level of support is the 200-day moving average of 
$39.94.

Updated Comments:
Good things happen to bears who wait.  After teasing us with false 
bearish starts, AstroPower shares finally succumbed to market 
weakness and dropped $4.76, giving us gain to date of $3.87 per 
share on this short play.  The chink in seller sentiment that we 
can see is unimpressive volume of 220k shares traded.  The daily 
average is 322k traded.  The good news is that this volume still 
represents a spike over the previous day's volume of 164k traded.  
An additional jump in volume on Wednesday with further price 
depreciation would be a good sign the bears are not done.  If so, 
our next target would be a test of support at the 200-day moving 
average currently at $40 and a possible run at the June low of 
$36.25.

Picked on July 5th at $48.59
Gain since picked       3.87
Earnings Date           7/31 (Not Confirmed)




==========
Watch List
==========

Quest Software Inc. - QSFT $31.96 -0.29 

WHY WE LIKE IT:  If investors are going to run from tech we might
as well profit from it.  QSFT has been rolling over since the 
recent high on June 29th.  We saw a bounce at $32 and now shares
appear to be headed for $30.  This is a bet to single out a 
good potential short in a sea of potential shorts.

POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  Looking back to the first eleven days
of June we can see that bulls had tried to build a measure of
support at $30.  This will be the trigger.  If shares of QSFT
close below $30 then we'll consider it for a short play.  Our
target would be $24 to $25.  One can probably look to MSFT to
lead the way for software companies who incidentally has a 
pretty similar chart.




---

eBay Inc. - EBAY $60.25 -4.23  

WHY WE LIKE IT: Tech troubles = Internet weakness.  Pretty 
simple formula.  While eBay is one of the largest and most 
successful Internet companies still in existence (having real
revenues doesn't hurt either) they are still subject to the 
woes of their sector mates.  If Yahoo doesn't do well tomorrow
with their earnings announcement then investors could flee
from shares of eBay despite the fact they have different 
business models.  FYI: eBay is due to announce earnings on
July 19th, after the close.  EPS estimates are for $0.09.
Date not confirmed.

POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  Yesterday's close under support at
$65 followed by today's big drop straight to $60 could has 
probably got weak-handed bulls running scared.  We're going to
be very specific with our possible trigger point.  The low
on May 30th was $58.58.  If shares of EBAY close under 58.58
then we'll consider it for a short play.  Next support (or
our first target) would be $55 and the stock might actually go
as low as $50.





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The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 07-10-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/6940_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Split Trader
  New Plays: JCI - In The Drivers Seat.
  Play Updates: Splitting Headache
  Closed Play: No new closed play for ST

Net Bulls
  New Plays: No new plays for NB
  Bullish Play Updates: Two Near Support 
  Bearish Play Updates: Bearish Plays Gain On Tech Weakness  
  Closed Play: ADP - Sharp Open Followed By Steep Drop

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: SGU - Fat Dividend and Bullish Break
  Bullish Play Updates: Bulls Bewildered
  Bearish Play Updates:  APWR, QLGC
  Closed Plays: GLW, SHLR - The Roof Sprung a Leak


=================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

============
ST New Plays
============

  -------------------------
  New Split Candidate Plays
  -------------------------

Johnson Controls, Inc. - JCI $76.20 +1.55 Stop: $73.00

Company Description:
Johnson Controls makes car seats, interior systems, and batteries 
for automobiles and environmental control systems for commercial 
buildings.  Over one-third of the cars made in North America have 
JCI electronics.  More than 40-percent of sales are to General 
Motors, Ford, and DaimlerChrysler.  Johnson Controls sells the 
majority of its batteries through the replacement market via 
retailers such as AutoZone, Sears, and Wal-Mart.  In addition to 
making systems that regulate temperature, lighting and detect 
fires, Johnson Controls also offers facility management for 
commercial buildings through its controls division.  The company is 
also developing interior systems with electronic gadgetry so that 
its customers can offer more distinctive products.  Johnson 
Controls is also entering the retail store market by way of its 
controls group's integrated systems; the systems allow for remote 
monitoring, diagnostics, and service dispatch via the Internet. 

Fundamentals:
Last year the company earned $5.09 per share on sales of $17 
billion.  In the fiscal year ending September 2001 the analysts' 
consensus forecast is for the firm to earn $5.08 per share on sales 
of $18.3 billion and $5.66 per share on $19.1 billion in 2002. This 
gives the shares a P/E 14.9, less than the industry average P/E of 
18.  The company has a $1.24 per share annual dividend.

Strategy:
Several catalysts are driving JCI share higher.  The first is the 
general good health of the automotive industry.  The second factor 
is the fiscal third quarter earnings announcement scheduled for 
July 18.  The company has a consistent record for beating analyst 
expectations.  The consensus estimate is for quarterly earnings of 
$1.44 per share on sales of $4.7 billion.  The final catalyst is 
speculation about a possible split.  The last time the firm split 
was in April of 1997 when the shares were selling at $87.50 at 
announcement time.  It was a 2:1 split and was announced at the 
company's earnings report.  With 86.9 million shares outstanding 
and an additional 300 million authorized, there are enough shares 
available to accommodate another move.  

Regardless of the reason, JCI shares have significant momentum.  
On Tuesday they broke through significant resistance at $75 to set 
a new 52-week high of $76.50.  This topped the previous high of 
$76.10 set just last July 5th.  However, whereas the previous high 
came from a session that closed at $74.96, there was more conviction 
attached to Tuesday's move with a close above the old high at $76.20. 
Above average volume of 648k shares traded (the average is 358k) 
further confirms the bullish sentiment.  The former resistance level 
of $75 now becomes support in the event of a bearish reversal.  To 
avoid getting whipsawed out, we will place our initial stop at $73.00.
. 
Picked on July 10th at $21.18
Earnings Date            7/18 (Confirmed)




===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  Split Candidate Updates
  -----------------------

Alliant Techsystems ATK Close:$86.27 Gain:+0.27 Stop:$84.00

There weren't many, but Alliant was one of the stocks that finished in 
positive territory today.  It was only a paltry 27-cent gain, but 
perhaps it's enough to stop the mini-decline this stock has been in. 
The MACD oscillator looks oversold, but can ATK withstand the overall 
market decline until it turns up from oversold territory?  We shall 
soon find out.

Picked on June 29th at $89.90
Gain since picked:      -3.63
Earnings Date           8/9/01




===

ITT Educational Services ESI Close:$44.15 Gain:-0.45  Stop:$41.88

ITT continues to have trouble breaking through resistance at $45. With 
today's widespread selling, a 45-cent decline could have been worse.  
Support still looks strong at $41.88, and the 50-day moving average is 
quickly rising to offer additional support.

Picked on June 12th at $43.70
Gain since picked:      +0.45
Earnings Date           7/19/01




===

Fiserv Inc. FISV Close:$59.94 Gain:0.00  Stop:$56.50

Fiserv started out the day well, but ran into resistance at the 50-
period moving average on the 60-minute chart.   FISV may have to 
withstand a couple of days of overall market selling, but support looks 
strong at $57.50.  The more important 50-day moving average is also 
moving up to support any declines.

Picked on July 10 at   $59.94
Gain since picked:       0.00
Earnings Date           7/23/01





==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------------

Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO  Close:$17.88 Change:-0.74 Stop:$17.25

Late-Tuesday, web advertising broker Doubleclick (NASD:DCLK) beat 
earnings estimates, but reaffirmed the slump in Internet 
advertising when it reported a 20-percent drop in quarterly 
revenue,  This news bodes poorly for Wednesday's earnings from 
our advertising dependant Bullish selection.  Given Tuesday's 
close is so near our stop we are going to maintain it at $17.25.

Picked on June 25th at $19.77
Gain since picked       (1.94)
Earnings Date            7/11 (Not Confirmed)
 



===

Electronic Arts  ERTS Close:$54.38 Change:+1.39 Stop:$50.00

Tuesday session low of $50.55 moved perilously close to our 
$50.00 stop.  Fortunately, the shares accomplished a small 
bullish reversal in the final 30-minutes of the trading day.  
We are still optimistic that if this play can whether the 
current market slide, the intermediate prospects for a rally 
through to September remain intact.  

Picked on July 7th at $54.38
Gain since picked      (3.37)
Earnings Date           7/26 (Confirmed)




  -----------------------
  NB Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------------

Computer Sciences Corp - CSC Close:$34.25 Change:+-0.77 Stop:$35.00

CSC shares seem bound and determined to stay range bound between 
$33 and $35.  Tuesday's slight gain moved the shares closer to the 
top of the upper trading range.  We are hopeful our Bearish 
selection does not have the momentum for a break through.  We are 
maintaining our stop at $35.00.   

Picked on June 21st at $35.00
Gain since picked:       0.75
Earnings Date            N/A (Not Confirmed)




===

Emulex Corp - EMLX Close:$27.61 Change:-1.19  Stop: $32.00 New

EMLX shares started the day attempting to conduct an early 
morning session high of $30.93.  The attempt failed and the 
selling pressure resumed.   The $27.61 close is near significant 
support at $27.50.  A down side break would put the next support 
level at $23.00.  Just in case the shares reverse we are tightening 
up our stop to $32.00.  More conservative traders may consider 
setting their stops tighter to protect gains.  We are up $8.21 
per share to date on this Bearish selection.

Picked on July 5th at $35.82
Gain since picked:     $8.21
Earnings Date           8/02 (Not Confirmed)




===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Automatic Data Processing - ADP Close:$52.45 Change:-0.59 Stop: $52.90 

ADP made a momentary move to the plus side on Monday.  The Bullish 
momentum extended into Tuesday's open driving the shares to a $53.30 
session high before selling momentum set in for the remainder of the 
session.  Unfortunately, the session high was sufficient to trip our 
$52.90 stop.  

Picked on June 29th at $49.70
Gain Since Picked       (2.75) 
Earnings Date            8/13 (Not Confirmed)
 




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  --------------
  New Long Plays
  --------------

Star Gas Partners L.P. - SGU $21.18 +0.23 Stop: $19.50

Company Description:
Star Gas sells home heating oil, propane, natural gas, and 
electricity to some 705,000 commercial, industrial, and residential 
customers east of the Mississippi.  Its Petro Holdings subsidiary 
provides heating oil to 385,000 clients in the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic.  Star Gas Propane distributes retail propane to 210,000 
customers throughout the Midwest and Northeast.  Star Gas' 73-
percent owned Total Gas and Electric subsidiary sells natural gas 
and electricity to 110,000 customers in Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern 
states and Florida.  Director Audrey Sevin owns 44% of Star Gas; 
CEO Irik Sevin, 15.5%. The company has been active in the 
acquisition front.  During the past 20 months they acquired 24 
heating oil and propane companies.  These acquisitions contributed 
two-thirds of the company growth. 

Fundamentals:
At its second-quarter earnings release in April the company 
announced record results and a dividend of $0.575 per share.  
Earnings increased from the $2.80 per share from the year ago period 
to $2.90.  For the upcoming earnings announcement on July 26th, 
analysts expect the company to lose $1.51 per share.  For the 2001 
fiscal year ending in September, the consensus analyst forecast is 
for the firm to earn 70-cents per share and 74-cent in 2002.  Last 
year, the company earned 23-cents per share.  This gives the shares 
a current P/E of 30.  The industry average P/E is 51.  The company 
pays a $2.30 annual dividend.     

Strategy:
Sometimes it really is better to be the turtle rather than the 
hare.  This is not a fast moving play.  It just keeps inching up. 
Since closing at $13.00 on April 4th of 2000, these shares have 
ignored the volatility of the overall markets to gain 63-percent.  
On top of a 10.8-percent annual dividend, this has been one sweet 
play for shareholders.  What has caught our eye is the textbook 
bullish wedge that has formed on the Candlestick chart since May.  
This pattern is characterized by a series of higher lows and 
relatively flat highs.  As the pattern develops, volume drops off 
until a spike in volume signifies the shares are ready to break, 
normally to the positive side.  In SGU's case, the highs have been 
hugging the short side of $21.  Just like the book says, the 
shares closed above $21 on Tuesday for the first time since mid-May 
on twice the normal volume.  This suggests the turtle is ready to 
resume its slow climb up.  The prospects of another Fed cut should 
keep the turtle moving as that fat 10.8-percent dividend looks 
better and better to investors.  

Picked on July 10th at $21.18
Earnings Date            7/26 (Confirmed)




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Long Play Updates
  -----------------

Intuitive Surgical ISRG Close:$13.76 Gain:-0.19 Stop:$12.90

ISRG bounced off support yesterday, and gained 74 cents. 19 cents 
of that was given back today, but overall it is still an up week.  
Since we have already raised our stop to lock in a gain, we are 
willing to give this stock a little room to breath. But not too 
much, our stop still remains at $12.90. 

Picked on June 17th at $11.05
Gain since picked:      +2.71
Earnings Date           7/26/01




===

Nasdaq-100 Tracking Stock QQQ Close:$40.50 Gain:-1.51 Stop:$40.00

Things aren't looking good for the Nasdaq-100 or its tracking stock the 
triple Qs.  Previously $41 had been sturdy support, but now that that 
level is lost, it could be trouble.  There is some very mild support 
around $40, so we'll see if it can hold.  

Picked on July 6th at  $41.65
Gain since picked:      -1.15
Earnings Date             N/A




===

Tenet Healthcare THC Close:$51.75 Gain:+1.60 Stop:$49.75

After coming precariously close to touching our stop, THC gapped up 
today, and finished higher by $1.60.  The No. 2 hospital chain 
announcing that fourth quarter earnings would be higher than expected 
sparked the jump.  Higher not lower!  What a refreshing change.

Picked on June 17th at $51.09
Gain since picked:      +0.66
Earnings Date           7/25/01





  ------------------
  Short Play Updates
  ------------------

AstroPower - APWR Close:$44.72 Change:-4.76 Stop: $48.00

Good things happen to bears who wait.  After teasing us with false 
bearish starts, AstroPower shares finally succumbed to market 
weakness and dropped $4.76, giving us gain to date of $3.87 per 
share on this short play.  The chink in seller sentiment that we 
can see is unimpressive volume of 220k shares traded.  The daily 
average is 322k traded.  The good news is that this volume still 
represents a spike over the previous day's volume of 164k traded.  
An additional jump in volume on Wednesday with further price 
depreciation would be a good sign the bears are not done.  If so, 
our next target would be a test of support at the 200-day moving 
average currently at $40 and a possible run at the June low of 
$36.25.

Picked on July 5th at $48.59
Gain since picked       3.87
Earnings Date           7/31 (Not Confirmed)




===

QLogic -QLGC Close:$47.93 Change:-0.13 Stop:51.00 *new*

The selling pressure stills rules, but a late day rally on Tuesday 
may mean bears are losing conviction.  It is time to tighten up 
stops on this Bearish selection to protect our handy $14.60 per 
share gain to date. 

Picked on July 2nd at $62.53
Gain since picked:    +12.62
Earnings Date          N/A (Not Confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  ----------------
  Closed Long Play
  ----------------

Schuler Homes, Inc. SHLR Close:$14.55 Gain:+0.15 Stop:$13.75

SHLR temporarily dipped below the 50-day moving average and 
touched our stop before managing a close above the 50-dma.  The 
measly 18-cent gain might only be enough to pay the commission 
and buy a pizza, but it's better than a sharp stick in the eye.  
Homebuilders still look like a good play, and another one may be 
find its way back onto our play list before too long.

Picked on June 25th at $13.57
Gain since picked:      +0.18
Earnings Date            N/A 




===

Corning GLW Close:$14.12 Gain:-0.98 Stop:$14.50

Corning warned.  Stock Fell.

Picked on June 28th at $15.80
Gain since picked:      -1.30
Earnings Date            N/A





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