PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 07-11-2001 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/3512_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Will the market be convinced? Market Sentiment: Rock Paper Transports Play-of-the-Day: ERTS - Not Playing Games Here Watch List: Four out of Five in the Green! ----------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Market Numbers ----------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 07-11-2001 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10241.02 + 65.38 10274.02 10120.89 1.38 bln 1341/1747 NASDAQ 1972.04 + 9.25 1975.79 1934.67 1.73 bln 1550/2168 S&P 100 607.01 - 1.78 610.95 601.05 totals 2891/3915 S&P 500 1180.18 - 1.34 1184.93 1168.46 42.5%/57.5% RUS 2000 475.83 - 2.31 478.14 471.36 DJ TRANS 2819.79 + 44.10 2825.04 2773.84 VIX 26.98 + 0.45 28.21 26367 Put/Call Ratio 0.74 ----------------------------------------------------------------- =========== Market Wrap =========== Will the market be convinced? by Jeff Bailey Will today's late breaking news from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and its good news that revenues will exceed the markets expectations be enough to drive stocks higher and create a prolonged rally? Many investors have gotten gun shy in recent months as stocks just haven't been able to hold the higher ground. Tomorrow could be a key day. I think the good news from Microsoft is going to be help, but what takes place in the bond market is going to be most important. At this point, the MARKET has the ability to put a real hurt on bearish stock traders. Last week I thought the biggest threat to a bearish trader was bond YIELDS and the potential selling of bonds. That type of action would free up a lot of cash that could then be put to work in stocks. Sure, there's little question that shares of Microsoft (MSFT) are going to surge, but is it enough to drive other stocks higher? I still believe the answer will be found in the bond market. The question isn't necessarily "Will the good news from MSFT drive stocks higher." In my mind, the question should be, "Will the good news from MSFT be enough to get the MARKET to sell bonds?" Tomorrow, if I see stocks jump higher at the open of trading, but see bond YIELDS just sitting there, then I will begin to question the prolonged capability of any type of market rally. If on the other hand, I see a good round of selling and see the 30-year bond YIELD ($TYX.X) break the 5.775%-5.8% level, then I would trade bullish with some conviction. Tomorrow, the smart trader will be watching bond YIELDS closely. If he/she sees selling in bonds and YIELDS rise they will begin implementing bullish positions on a disciplines basis. Remember, we have some retail sales numbers that are due out tomorrow. I do feel the bond market will be more concerned with the state of the consumer than it will be with revenues at Microsoft. I'll regret saying this, but I feel that the bond market is much smarter than the stock market. Heck, I'm the first to admit that I am not an active bond trader. I've got some in my retirement account, but I chose what type of bond or bond mutual fund to be invested in at various times of a market cycle. The reason I've always felt the bond market is smarter that the stock market is this. The bond market is only concerned with were interest rates are going to be in the future. The only reason bond YIELDS rise is due to "fear" of economic growth and/or inflation. Is today's good news from Microsoft company specific, or is it a general statement that the economy is starting to do better and Microsoft just happens to be at the head of the proverbial food chain? I think we'll find the answer in the bond market and be able to trade with some confidence as things unfold. 30-year Treasury YIELD Chart - 0.25 box size The supply demand chart of the 30-year YIELD (TYX.X) still gives hopes to equity bulls. Subscribers that may have been reading my commentary over the past year have learned that stocks usually follow the direction of YIELD. Stock traders that have attended some of my seminars on point and figure charting understand what is going on in the above chart, but I'll try and review what a bullish equity trader wants to see take place in the next couple of trading sessions. The longer-term upward trend as indicated by the bullish support (blue +) is upward trending and the recent test of this trend at 55.75 (5.575%) held. The past week or so we've seen this bond YILED pull back and stocks have certainly followed. I would argue that the recent bad news in the markets have cause some market participants to run back into the bond market with their cash and stocks have suffered the consequences. However, an equity bear (on that is short stocks) is certainly aware that if bond YIELS reverse higher (I've put in some pink X's on the chart) then that equity bear gets the distinct feeling that cash is being freed up from the bond market, and now he/she has some competition. Yes, very much the old supply/demand theory at work here. If we see bond YIELDS turn higher tomorrow and get some aggressive selling in the bond market look for equity bears to get aggressive with their covering. At the same time, the good news from MSFT should bring in some bullish money. Together, the two could create a VERY BIG rally for stocks. The way to NOT GET "DUPED" is to keep an eye on the bond market! If you're short this market, you are also watching bond YIELDS carefully. DON'T try and stick your head in the sand if a stock is moving against you and you're seeing selling in bonds! Don't get the false sense of security that "this won't last." Stay disciplined! Just remember that the NASDAQ Composite is down more than 50% from its highs. You don't want to get blown up and holding a bunch of bearish positions when you could be playing the long side. When you entered the bearish trade, you set a stop. This was a predefined level of risk you were willing to take when you entered the trade. ================ Market Sentiment ================ Rock Paper Transports by Jeffrey Canavan Based on today's performance, sexy sectors like gold, paper products, and transports were the only the only places to be long. Rock beats transports, and nuggets of gold were the best stocks, up 2.91%. Gold looks like it has a little bit of upside potential, but all of these groups are starting to look a little overbought from a bullish percent standpoint. Paper may cover rock, but Microsoft crushes all. The software behemoth announced that fourth quarter revenues will top estimates, and most of techland should benefit tomorrow. Adding to the bullish ecstasy was Yahoo and Motorola, both of whom posted better than expected earnings. Internet and cell phone stocks should prosper, but Motorola did warn about slowing semiconductor sales, so that sector may be hurt slightly. If the triple Qs $2.00 gain in after hours trading is any gauge, we should be in for a good day tomorrow. How long the Microsoft euphoria will last remains to be seen. Bounce, rally, or perhaps Nasdaq 6000? Before we get ahead of ourselves, we must first overcome the technical damage that has been done in recent days. Even closing on a strong note tomorrow could be a challenge. One day at a time. *************************Sector Watch**************************** Weekly Daily Overbought Support Resistance Trend Trend Oversold DJIA Bearish Bearish Neutral 10,200 10,500 NASD Bearish Bearish Oversold 1,940 2,000 S&P 500 Bearish Bearish Neutral 1,170 1,200 Rus 2000 Neutral Bearish Oversold 465 485 Semis Bearish Bearish Oversold 525 585 Biotech Neutral Bearish Netural 510 550 Internet Neutral Bearish Oversold 160 186 Networking Bearish Bearish Oversold 300 365 Software Neutral Bearish Neutral 188 210 Banking Bullish Neutral Overbought 625 650 Retail Bearish Bearish Neutral 815 850 Drugs Bearish Neutral Oversold 375 400 Percent Change Last Last Last Relative Strength 5 Days 10 Days 30 Days vs S&P 500 DJIA (3.1%) (2.2%) (7.2%) Negative NASD (7.9%) (4.5%) (9.4%) Neutral S&P 500 (4.4%) (3.0%) (6.9%) N/A Rus 2000 (4.2%) (3.1%) (5.3%) Positive Semis (13.3%) (8.6%) (11.0%) Negative Biotech (12.6%) (8.8%) (12.8%) Negative Internet (12.1%) (10.4%) (24.1%) Negative Networking (14.0%) (8.2%) (29.2%) Negative Software (11.4%) (9.9%) (12.9%) Neutral Banking (3.7%) (2.1%) (3.1%) Positive Retail (3.9%) (3.7%) (7.1%) Negative Drugs (0.8%) (2.7%) (5.2%) Positive ***************************************************************** =============== Play-of-the-Day =============== Electronic Arts - ERTS Close:$53.93 Change:+2.92 Stop:$50.00 Original Comments When Selection on July 7th: Company Description: The Redwood City, California-based Electronic Arts is the worlds' largest publisher of video games. They have over 100 titles including the popular John Madden football games, Command & Conquer and SimCity. Over half of company revenue comes from games developed for console systems like the Sony Playstation (41-percent of sales), the Nintendo N64 and Microsoft's soon to be released xBox. Electronic Arts also acts as distributor for over 1,000 titles for 3rd party developers. The company is diversifying its business by operating a game channel for AOL and by creating its own EA.com subscription game site. However, it is the coming war between the deep pocket game console developers that ought to bring a smile to ERTS shareholders. Microsoft has said it will spend $500 million to promote its xBox console scheduled for release in early November. You can be certain the equally flush Sony will respond to protect their lucrative Playstation franchise and to launch their new Playstation 2. As a games developer for all the platforms, Electronic Arts is in a win-win situation. Fundamentals: In the fiscal year ended last March, the firm earned 4-cents per share on sales of $1.3 billion. The analysts' consensus forecast for the current year is for earnings of 61-cents per share on revenue of $1.6 billion. They predict the good times will continue the following year with earnings of $1.48 per share on revenue of $2.2 billion. Although the shares sport a high current P/E of 89 and a forward one of 37 for 2001, the firm's superior growth rate and recession resistant business model make the valuation reasonable. Strategy: For five consecutive years ERTS shares have increased an average of 25-percent from July 1st to September 30th. Taking out 1998's anemic rise of 2-percent and the average becomes 31-percent. This makes sense, as this quarter is when retailers stock up for the holidays. As a beneficiary of the massive amounts of holiday advertising in the hotly contested game console market, there is little reason to think that ERTS sales and shares will not have a similar rise this year. As far as an entry point is concerned, since last April $53 has proven to be a resilient support level and it held up well last week. On Friday, the shares went counter to the bear market and rebounded off of this level on high volume of 2.6 million shares traded. A good entry point would be following a confirmation of this bullish breakout with a close above $54.84 on a similar spike in volume. Our price objective is in the range of $63 to $67. To avoid getting whipsawed put we will set a stop at $50.00. Updated Comments: This Bullish selection still looks good. ERTS share rebounded sharply off of critical support at $51.00. A move past $54.86 on strong volume would confirm a bullish reversal out of recent congestion. This leaves intact our scenario for a repeat of the historical July to September rally for shares of this games publisher. We have a short-term target of $58 and an intermediate target in the range of $63 to $67. We are also maintaining our stop at $50.00. Picked on July 7th at $54.38 Gain since picked (0.45) Earnings Date 7/26 (Confirmed) ========== Watch List ========== America Online - AOL close: $48.50 change: -1.68 WHY WE LIKE IT: Post-market news could herald a change in investor sentiment for AOL. After losing 3.34 percent today, shares of AOL could reverse course. YHOO's earnings announcement after the close prompted a bullish response when they beat estimates by a penny and posted a profit for the quarter. This could help spur excitement for AOL's own earnings announcement expected next Wednesday on July 18th. However, even bigger than YHOO's surprise was MSFT's news. The fact that MSFT pre-announced that they would have a good quarter is great. But MSFT's statement that they would allow computer manufacturers some "flexibility" about what software they bundle with Windows was a major victory for AOL who has been battling MSFT on a number of issues. POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: Shares of AOL fell to an intraday low of $47.63 which was a clean bounce off of support in the form of its 200 & 100-dma's. Technically the stock should have resistance at $50 but today's after hours news could fuel enough buyers to easily push it over this level. A close over $50 would be our potential trigger to go long. Overhead resistance would then rest between $55 and $57.50. --- Cabletron Systems - CS close: $22.50 change: +0.59 WHY WE LIKE IT: There appears to be some positive sentiment towards Cabletron's plans to break itself up. Currently, CS has four operating subsidiaries - Aprisma, Enterasys, Riverstone and GNTS. After the break up, expected by the end of the month, there will only be Riverstone and Enterasys. Current shareholders of CS will receive 1.02 shares of Riverstone and 2 shares of Enterasys (new symbol will be ETS). POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: The trigger point for this play is pretty simple. If shares of CS can close above resistance at $23 then the bulls should have the green light. Since this is a short term trading strategy we would exit the play before the planned break up on Aug. 6th. --- Altera Corporation - ALTR close: $28.91 change: +1.92 WHY WE LIKE IT: Altera produces programmable logic devices or PLDs. This is part of the semiconductor industry, which was one of the few sectors that closed positive today (SOX $557.97 +15.56). If the chips are coming back then ALTR could be one to watch. POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: Shares of ALTR have been stuck in a wide range for months. However, the stock has been creating a very long, drawn out pennant formation with lower highs and higher lows (since about early April). We would like to see shares close strongly over resistance at $30. This would put it above the down trending line of lower highs and above its 200-dma of 28.93. For the more conservative one could wait for a close over $30.75 which would be the highest closing price since Feb. 15th, 2001. --- Taro Pharmaceutical Industries - TARO close: $83.26 change: +2.10 WHY WE LIKE IT: Here is one drug stock that is bucking the trend in its sector. TARO primarily manufactures, markets and distributes OTC and prescription drugs in the U.S. Currently, TARO has a 2:1 stock split payable on July 26th which just so happens to be the same day they are expected to announce earnings. This double- whammy could continue to spur excite for investors up to the 26th. POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: The stock has had an amazing run. You could have purchased shares of TARO for less than $20 just last October. The stock hit resistance at $90 on June 29th and again on July 1st. Charts will show you the share price suffered some profit taking but its trying to build new support around $80. Those looking for a short-term trade might consider a run up to $90 if shares close over $84. You might even look for a dip tomorrow as everyone goes crazy over tech issues. More conservative traders can consider a play if the shares close over $90. Take this one word of caution. Get out before the July 26th earnings announcement and 2:1 stock split. You don't want to be a victim of "sell the news" once these two events pass. --- THQ Inc - THQI close: $58.00 change: +0.97 WHY WE LIKE IT: Several analyst believe that the electronic game industry, while having a great run so far, still has plenty of room to go. If you believe that then pay attention to THQ Inc. The Company publishes titles for Sony's PlayStation and PlayStation 2, Nintendo 64, Nintendo Game Boy Color and personal computers. Indeed, if the gaming sector has seen the same move that shares of THQI have seen then it has been a good year. Mid-December of 2000 you could have bought shares of THQI for only $18.00. We can expect earnings for THQI on Thursday, July 19th next week. POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: The stock has been consolidating under resistance at $60 for about four weeks now. We're starting to see higher lows and if shares can close above $60 and stay there then we might actually see an earnings run. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 07-11-2001 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/3512_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: Split Trader Split Announcements: Alliance Gaming - ALLY New Plays: No new ST plays Play Updates: No new updates for ST Closed Plays: ESI - Getting an Education Net Bulls New Plays: IBM Corporation - IBM (Bullish) Play Updates: No new updates for NB Closed Plays: Yahoo - YHOO Stock Bottom / Active Trader New Plays: PATH - Year Long Bull Run Continues (Bullish) Play Updates: No new updates for SB / AT Closed Plays: Intuitive Surgical - ISRG ================================================================= Split Trader (ST) section ================================================================== =================== Split Announcements =================== Las Vegas Gaming Company Announces 2-for-1 Stock Split During regular trading today, the Board of Directors of Alliance Gaming Corp. (Nasdaq:ALLY) declared a 2-for-1 stock split on its common shares. The additional shares are payable on August 20 and the stock is expected to trade on a split-adjusted basis on August 21. There are currently 11 million shares outstanding, 6 million in the float, and 50 million shares authorized. Alliance also stated today that on August 16 it would announce earnings for fiscal year ended June 30, 2001. The Company is expecting to earn approximately $2.21 per share (pre-split). ALLY shares opened at $31 today, down from the previous close of $32.43. Trading is currently at $32.15 on very heavy volume of 1.5 million shares; the average 3-month volume is 289.5 thousand. About the Company: Alliance Gaming is a diversified gaming company with headquarters in Las Vegas. The company is engaged in the design, manufacture, distribution and operation of advanced gaming devices and systems worldwide, is the nation's largest gaming machine route operator, and owns and operates two casinos. =============== ST Closed Plays =============== ----------------------- Closed Split Candidate Play ----------------------- ITT Educational Services ESI Close:$43.30 Change:-0.85 Stop:$41.88 ITT shares have been banging against resistance at $45. On Wednesday, the shares banged off hard and ran over our stop in the process. There is hope for longs. After reaching the session low of $41.00, the shares rebounded strongly. Unfortunately the general market may decide the next direction of ESI shares. If the general market finds its legs, it may assist this play back to its feet and set up another test of $45, otherwise the shares could bust through $42.50 and stay there. Picked on June 12th at $43.70 Gain since picked: (1.20) Earnings Date 7/19 (Not Confirmed) ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) section ================================================================== ============ NB New Plays ============ -------------- New Long Plays -------------- IBM Corporation - IBM Close:$103.85 Change:+1.89 Stop:$99.00 Company Description: International Business Machines is the largest technology company in the world. It touts itself as a form of one-stop shop for computer technology. It sells a wide variety of computer hardware, system and application software, and services. Big Blue is so large, diversified and entrenched in the world's corporate hallways, that it has been considered one of the more defensive plays in the tech sector. Over 60-percent of company revenue comes from outside the domestic market where the economy has been stable. Investors also like IBM because of their successful expansion into e-business and the low valuation of the shares. In a cost cutting move, the company recently announced the layoff of 1,500 workers from their Global Services unit Fundamentals: For the 2000 fiscal year the company's net income increased 5-percent to $8.07 billion on a 1-percent jump in revenue to $88.4 billion. Analysts expect company earnings to rise from $4.44 in 2000 to $4.83 in 2001 and $5.45 in 2002. This gives IBM shares a low current P/E of 22 and a forward P/E of 19. Strategy: For long-time IBM shareholders $100 has been a magic share price. This level has proven to be formidable resistance as the shares rise and strong support on a downswing. With Wednesday's close of $103.85 the shares are approaching this level once more. This sets up a low risk to reward play for long investors. Conservative investors know that they can move into a solid tech play with protection from a nearby historically important level of support. The upside looks good. Strong above average volume on Wednesday of 89 million shares traded (the average is 69 million) suggests the shares have enough momentum to make short work of resistance at the 200-day moving average of $104.66. Once past this level, the next areas of resistance are at $109 and $112.50. We see a reasonable target price range as being between $112 and $116. We are setting our initial stop to $99, which is just below the before mentioned magic number. Picked on July 11th $103.85 Earnings Date 7/18 (Not Confirmed) =============== NB Closed Plays =============== ----------------- Closed Long Plays ----------------- Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO Close:$17.03 Change:-0.80 Stop:$17.25 We were concerned the anemic earnings report from web advertising broker Doubleclick (NASD:DCLK) might stop out our advertising dependant Bullish selection. That is exactly what happened as Yahoo shares gapped down at the open past our $17.25 stop. This kept us from enjoying the after market reaction to the positive Yahoo earnings report. We closed the play at the opening price of $16.94. Picked on June 25th at $19.77 Gain since picked (2.83) Earnings Date 7/11 (Not Confirmed) ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== ============ AT New Plays ============ -------------- New Long Plays -------------- AmeriPath - PATH Close:$30.95 Change:+0.58 Stop:$27.00 Company Description: AmeriPath contracts with more than 200 hospitals to manage their anatomic pathology practices in some 20 states. Over 400 pathologists in AmeriPath's network diagnose diseases by examining cells and tissues. The work is performed in hospitals and outpatient laboratories. PATH operates more than 40 outpatient labs that account for some 40-percent of sales. The company manages the non- medical aspects of the practices, including payroll, staffing, supply, financial reporting, and administration. AmeriPath continues to develop its regional network of practices through acquisitions. They currently have 49 practices in 21 states. Fundamentals: Higher physician compensation and a $7.1 million merger expense combined to drop income 47-percent in the first three months of the year to $3.2 million. But do not be fooled, this company has a strong fundamental picture. Revenue in the same period jumped 32- percent to $98.7 million. After earning $1.16 per share on revenue of $330 million last year, analysts expect the company to earn $1.40 per share on sales of $400 million in the current 2001 fiscal year. Next year the company is projected to earn $1.65 per share on sales of $445 million. This gives the shares a current P/E of 26 and a forward 2001 P/E of 22. These numbers are low in comparison to the industry average P/E of 38 and inline with a 2001 earnings growth rate of 23-percent. Strategy: These shares have been on a rally climbing 342-percent since May of 2000. On Tuesday the share pushed north once more when they closed above resistance at $30 on a solid spike in volume. Wednesday confirmed the Bullish momentum when the shares gain 58-cents and closed at the session high establishing a new 52-week closing high. We have a target price of $36. Former resistance at $30 has now become downside support with additional strong support at $28. We are starting out with a stop of $27. Picked on July 11th at $30.95 Earnings Date 7/31 (Not Confirmed) =============== AT Closed Plays =============== ---------------- Closed Long Play ---------------- Intuitive Surgical - ISRG Close:$13.00 Gain:-0.76 Stop:$12.90 ISRG dipped below support at $13.00 and knocked off our tight $12.90 stop. We close this Bullish play with a $1.85 per share gain. Picked on June 17th at $11.05 Gain since picked: 1.85 Earnings Date 7/26 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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