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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 07/19/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 07-19,2001
                                                   section 1 of 2
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In section one:

Market Wrap: Microsoft's Revenues Rse 13%e
Market Sentiment: At Least Somebody is Confident
Play-of-the-Day: Check Point Software - CHKP (Bearish)
Watch List: Drugs, Tech and Wireless

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U.S. Market Numbers
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
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         7-19-2001        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10597.13 + 40.17 10679.12 10523.92 1.34 bln   1772/1266	
NASDAQ   2046.35 + 30.42  2079.33  2027.11 1.97 bln   2133/1511
S&P 100   626.44 +  4.02   632.23   622.11   totals   3905/2777
S&P 500  1214.06 +  7.31  1225.04  1205.80             
RUS 2000  487.64 +  3.92   491.13   483.62
DJ TRANS 2981.28 +  6.62  2998.12  2965.32 
VIX        26.47 +   .16    26.50    25.06 
Put/Call Ratio      0.76
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===========
Market Wrap
===========

Microsoft's revenues rise 13%

After the close of trading, Microsoft (MSFT) reported revenues 
for the latest quarter completed June 30th of $6.58 billion, 
which represented a 13% increase compared to the same quarter a 
year ago.  Operating income also showed growth at 2.75 billion 
compared to 2.55 billion in the year ago period.  Shares of 
Microsoft had traded higher throughout the regular session and 
close at $72.51, but after releasing its latest quarterly 
earnings, the stock fell to $69.60 in after hours trading.

What seemed to have found some sellers coming to the table after 
yesterday's release of earnings was cautionary statements by 
management that the current quarterly revenues might be a little 
lower than previously expects.  Management offered guidance for 
the quarter ending September 30, 2001 saying that it expects 
revenues to come in at the $6.0-$6.2 billion range and for 
diluted earnings to be 39-40 cents a share.

While today's earning report from Microsoft looks strong compared 
to some recent reports from software companies like Veritas 
(VRTS) and Siebel Systems (SEBL), the slightest inkling of 
weakness in the software groups seems to be a big reason for 
market participants to sell their stock.

Earnings season remains busy with Sun Microsystems (SUNW) 
reporting better than expected earnings after the bell.  The 
leading maker of UNIX-based workstation computers, servers and 
storage devices reported net income of $134 million and earnings 
of 4 cents a share on revenues of $4 billion.  Analysts were 
expecting revenues to be between $3.8 and $4 billion and earnings 
per share of 3 cents.  Yesterday's revenue and earnings from Sun 
Microsystems reflect what a tough 12 months it has been for many 
technology stocks.  A year ago, shares of Sun Microsystems were 
trading near the $50 level and had reported net income of $717 
million.

There were very few stocks that really jumped out at me today 
that seemed to say "buy me."  There were quite a few stocks that 
rallied to resistance levels, but the market seemed very hesitant 
on the buy side and unable to push them higher.  I think this was 
more true on the technology side than anywhere.

One stock that didn't have trouble finding buyers was a stock we 
mentioned July 12th in the 09:00 AM update.  I had run a chart 
scan for the point and figure chart pattern "bearish signal 
reverse" trying to find some stock ideas that depicted a powerful 
chart pattern that a bullish trader might take a look at in this 
market environment.  One of the four stocks highlighted was Pulte 
Homes (NYSE:PHM).  On July 12th, the stock opened for trading at 
$42.30, today it closed at $48.01.

Pulte Homes Inc. Chart - $1 box



The above is a big chart of Pulte Homes (PHM) but I'm showing it 
for a reason.  First off, lets discuss what recently took place 
in PHM.  For those that shunned this stock because it wasn't 
technology, perhaps today's close at $48 after giving the bearish 
signal reverse pattern at $43 and 11% gain becomes interesting.  
Mind you, not every stock that gives this pattern doubles its 
price in 5-days.  PHM is not a technology stock and perhaps 
that's exactly what the MARKET seems to like about it.  The 
homebuilders look to be benefiting from lower bond YIELDS.  
Mortgage rates track the 10-year and 30-year YIELDS and recently 
declining bond YIELDS may be the catalyst for this stock and 
others in the group.  As mortgage rates decline, that opens up 
the opportunity for homebuyers looking to upgrade the size of 
their home, or make buying a house more affordable for the first 
time buyer.

What we found attractive and worth mentioning about PHM is the 
trade setup and technicals in the point and figure chart.  The 
recent holding of the bullish support trend was a plus in 
addition to the bearish signal reversed.

Now, when was the opportune time to buy PHM?  When you look at 
the above chart, the opportune time to have bought the stock was 
clear back in March of 2000 when the stock broke above its 
bearish resistance trend (red +) and gave a triple top buy signal 
at $19.50.  One wonders where in the heck did the money come from 
to buy shares of PHM back in March of 2000, when a lot of money 
started pouring into the bond market and driving YIELDS lower?  
Remember, in March of 2000, the 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) was at 
6.1% and today it's at 5.5%.  I think some of the money that 
rolled into PHM back in March of 2000 came from some NASDAQ 
stocks.  Where was the NASDAQ trading in March of 2000?  On March 
10, 2000 the NASDAQ Composite traded at a 52-week high of 5,132.  
Today it trades at 2,046.

Aha!  DIVERGENCE!  I think a trader and more importantly an 
investor can now build some trading scenario's based on the 
following.  When PHM and probably the entire housing group shot 
higher in March of 2000, the NASDAQ Composite obviously reached a 
peak.  Could I not then build a scenario that says, "when PHM 
reaches its peak or breaks bullish support, the NASDAQ Composite 
might be ready for a recovery?  Perhaps we now have another 
indicator to measure against in the future.

Do you wish you had bought 100 shares of PHM or 1 longer-term 
call option on PHM when it broke above bearish resistance and 
traded $19.50 back in March of 2000?  I wish I had.  I think I 
could have made some good money then.  Heck, a trader made decent 
money in the last week on the stock.  Now study and understand 
what took place back in March of 2000 and see if this stock 
interests you.  It's not "technology," but that might not be all 
that bad.

Nike Chart - $1 box



Using pattern recognition from PHM, a technical trader might 
build the case for being technically bullish in shares of Nike 
(NYSE:NKE).  This stock has certainly been moving against the 
broader market trend recently.  Yesterday morning in the 09:00 
EST update, I pointed this stock out as a potential bullish trade 
based on the breaking of bearish resistance and the triple top 
buy signal at $46.

Today I was thinking... "what could possibly be the fundamental 
catalyst for this stock?"  Certainly not mortgage rates.  All I 
could come up with is perhaps the stock is beginning a run just 
before the "back to school" shopping sprees begin.  Today at 
01:30 I showed a bar chart of the stock, but this Pulte Homes 
thing really has my interest.  Finally, in a bull market, the 
triple top buy signal on average is profitable 87.9% of the time 
for an average gain of 28.7% over a 6.8 month time frame.  This 
is according to a study conducted by Professor Earl Davis at 
Purdue Universty.  While the broader market is by no means in a 
"bull market" neither is the group of stocks that Nike belongs to 
currently.  Dorsey Wright and Associates has this stock 
categorized as belonging to the Textiles/Apparel group.  
Currently, 47% of the stocks in this group are showing buy 
signals on their charts after having reached the 60% level in 
March.  You can see from the above chart that NKE was moving 
against the bullish percent chart back in March when the stock 
got hammered from $56 down to $38.  That's what I call 
DIVERGENCE!  It looks like NKE is diverging once again and the 
stock looks to be a leader in the group.  If the group turns 
higher, it might just be NKE leading the charge!

The Nike January 2002 $45 calls (NKEAI) closed with an ask of 
$7.20.  I point out the January expiration just in case the 
economy recovers and we have a blowout holiday shopping season.

Hopefully subscribers are tying to learn and apply some of the 
things we talk about in the market commentary.  Even if a trader 
"only trades technology stocks," then try and use some of the 
pattern recognition techniques from above.  If you hit big on a 
technology stock, then try to duplicate that result.  Was there 
something in that chart that was a clear sign that something big 
was about to happen?  If so, look for similar signs in other 
stocks.


================
Market Sentiment
================

At Least Somebody is Confident

The Conference Board's Measure of Business Confidence, which 
tracks CEOs' confidence in the economy, climbed 7 points last 
quarter to a reading of 52.  Readings above 50 reflect a positive 
outlook. 

Chief executives were a little less upbeat about their own 
industries. 22% felt that conditions have improved from last 
quarter, and only 60% of CEOs expect profit increases over the 
next 12 months, down 11% from last year.  The service sector was 
the most optimistic, 72% expect profit increases, and the non-
durable goods sector was the most pessimistic, with only 44% 
expecting profits to rise.

Market participants were confident for most of the day, but that 
confidence wavered slightly towards the end of the day.  They 
were able to regroup, and close the major indices higher.  Not 
much, but higher.

That confidence will be put to the test tomorrow after Microsoft 
guided revenues lower for next quarter.  Good news from eBay and 
Sun might help to minimize the damage of poor news from Gateway 
and Nortel.   Based on after market trading in the Nasdaq-100 
(AMEX:QQQ), down $1, we should be in for a lower opening.  

But the markets have been languorous lately. After an initial 
sell off, bears may very well take their profits by lunch to get 
an early jump on beach traffic, leaving the markets free to drift 
higher.  At least that's been the pattern this week; wait for an 
extreme to be set in the first hour, and then fade it.  Options 
expiration tomorrow may put a dent in that pattern. 

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Market Volatility  
VIX   26.47
VXN   54.59

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          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total           .76        935,680       711,023
Equity Only     .68        769,448       523,743
OEX            1.04         41,211        42,779
QQQ             .59         62,473        36,562

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Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          36       -      Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    26       -      Bear Confirmed
DOW           30       -      Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       50       -      Bear Alert  

Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 
30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

10-Day Arms Index  1.11  

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

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        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1687           1334
NASDAQ    2036           1561

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      143             36
NASDAQ    135             72

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Advisory Sentiment 

Bullish  Bearish  Correction   Net 
  51%     25.0%      24.0%    26.0%

A bearish reading of 25% to 30%, combined with a bullish reading 
greater than 55% is typically considered bearish by contrairians. 
 A net percentage greater than 30% is also viewed as bearish. 

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Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/03/01
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong. 

S&P 500
Commercial traders have stopped their bearish trend, but no enough 
to signal any meaningful reversals.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
6/26/01      307,889   379,955   (72,066)   (10.48%)
7/03/01      316,543   395,410   (78,867)   (11.08%)
7/10/01      309,374   385,178   (75,804)   (10.91%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 41,144) - 5/1/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
6/26/01      130,914     56,269   74,645     39.88%
7/03/01      133,098     54,865   78,233     41.62%
7/10/01      135,587     59,889   75,698     38.72%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01
 
NASDAQ-100
Institutions have decreased their net bearish position for seven 
straight weeks, and small traders are about to turn net bearish.  
The overall picture is still net bearish, but things are looking 
up.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
6/26/01       26,263     35,690   ( 9,427)  (15.22%)
7/03/01       26,544     34,880   ( 8,336)  (13.57%)
7/10/01       26,688     34,640   ( 7,952)  (12.97%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
6/26/01       10,519     6,064    4,455      26.86%
7/03/01       10,443     7,063    3,380      19.31%
7/10/01        9,073     7,486    1,587       9.58%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01


DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Institutions have quickly reversed their position back to net 
bullish.  I would like to see this trend persist for a few more 
weeks before I buy it.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
6/26/01       11,371    12,759   (1,388)    (5.8%)
7/03/01       12,761    14,623   (1,862)    (6.8%)
7/10/01       13,743    12,999      744      2.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
6/26/01        4,756     6,341    (1,585)   (14.28%)
7/03/01        4,708     5,715    (1,007)   ( 9.66%)
7/10/01        5,048     7,835    (2,787)   (21.63%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01
-------------------------------------------------------------


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================

Check Point Software - CHKP Close:$39.91 Change:-0.18 Stop:$44.50

Original Comments When Selected on July 18th:

Company Description:
The Israeli-based company makes firewalls that form a kind of 
electronic moat around networks protecting them from hackers and 
viruses.  Its FireWall-1 product protects networks from unauthorized 
access and security threats while its VPN-1 software sets up virtual 
private networks for secure internal and remote communications.  
The company sells its products through resellers, manufacturers and 
systems integrators such as IBM and EDS.  Competitors include RSA 
Security, Symantec and Internet Security Group.
 
Fundamentals:
At its second-quarter earnings announcement on July 23rd, analysts 
expect the company to earn 32-cents per share on revenue of $150 
million.  In the same period a year ago the company earned 17-cents 
per shares on revenue of $91 million.  For the year, analysts 
forecast the company will earn $1.28 per share on sales of 
$630 million.  Last year, the company earned 84-cents per share on 
revenue of $425 million.  The company has an estimated forward 2001 
P/E of 31.  The industry average P/E is 45.

Why We Like It:
Once the beneficiary of investors confidence in its predominate 
position in the recession resistant security sector, it is now 
being hammered as investors have realized no place is safe from 
corporate budget cutters.    The shares have been sliced almost 
in half from its $80.16 high from April 19th.  The catalysts have 
been a string of earning warnings and anemic reports from Checkpoint 
and its rivals.  Checkpoint warned in early July that revenue, 
although sharply higher than last year, would be would be slightly 
below expectations.  Late-Wednesday, competitor Internet Security 
Group followed through on its warnings when it reported a second-
quarter loss.  With the complete absence of good industry news there
is also an absence of a catalyst for a bullish reversal.  This 
means CHKP shares should remain weak at least through to its earnings 
report.  

By the end of Wednesday's trading, Checkpoint shares close of $40.09 
left it staring off the edge of a precipice.  Once through the $39.50 
session low of last April 3rd and the $38.65 session low of April 4, 
2000 there is little support until $30.00.  Rising bearish sentiment 
is clearly in evidence.  This is shown by the lack of resistance on 
the part of bulls during Wednesday's trading session and a spike in 
volume from 6 million on Tuesday to 9.5 million on Wednesday.  We 
will set our initial stop on this Bearish selection to just above 
recent session highs at $44.50.

Updated Comments:
The teeter-totter continues for our Bearish selection as it dances 
near the edge at $40 with only a branch to grab at $30 to hamper 
its way down.  The outlook has not changed much from when we first 
identified this play on Wednesday.  A good earnings report from 
rival Symantec gave the bears a scare driving the shares up in 
morning trading to a session high of $$42.65, however the bears 
reasserted themselves and pushed the shares down for the better 
part of the remaining trading day.  Although the two companies are 
in the software security market, they are in different parts of 
it.  Checkpoint is strong in large-scale networks and the Internet,
while Symantec derives most of its revenue from selling to 
individual PC's.  Symantec has designs on Checkpoint's market - 
but it's not a factor yet.  In the meantime, Checkpoints market 
and real rivals are suffering.  We see little reason to alter our 
belief that Bearish sentiment is likely to increase for Checkpoint 
shares at least through to its July 23rd earnings release. 

Picked on July 18th at $40.09
Gain Since Picked       +0.18
Earnings Date            7/23 (Not Confirmed)





==========
Watch List
==========

Johnson and Johnson - JNJ - close: 54.20 change: -0.20

WHY WE LIKE IT: The Drug sector has seen a bounce the last couple
of days and JNJ is part of the reason.  On Tuesday, the drug
maker announced their earnings and everyone was happy to hear that
profits were rising on strong sales of drugs and medical devices. 
Earnings would have been even better if it wasn't for JNJ's 
$10 billion acquisition of Alza corp.  So can the stock keep up
some of its recent gains?  We hope so.  Investors have not 
witnessed any massive selling now that the earnings news is out
and if the technology sector rolls over traders will probably 
run for the safety of drugs.

POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  The stock saw some late day buying on
Thursday despite closing in negative territory.  Traders have a
choice to try and target shoot into a long position with a dip
between 53.00 and 53.50 or a higher close over 55.00.  Keep a 
close eye on the remaining big drug companies that have yet to
announce.  MRK, SGP and BMY all have earnings coming with MRK
expected tomorrow.  If any of these companies falter bad enough,
JNJ could fall with them even though they had a positive earnings
report.




---

Macrovision Corp. - MVSN - close: 70.00 change: -0.19

WHY WE LIKE IT:  Looking at the chart of MVSN might make one
think that they have been immune to all the trouble other software
security firms have been feeling.  Macrovision has avoided the 
selling since they specialize in video copyright technology.
The stock recently broke through heavy resistance at $60 in June.
The month of July has seen the stock trying to hurdle resistance 
at $71 while confirming a quick retest of support at $60 on 
July 11th (we bet that was a surprise, see a chart).  

POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  Earnings are not expected for MVSN until
July 30th.  That gives us over a week to see if an earnings run 
will develop.  Our potential trigger will be a close over $72.




---

PeopleSoft Inc. - PSFT - close: 35.81 change: -3.93

WHY WE LIKE IT:  PSFT is a potential short play.  The stock has
made a huge come back from its low of $17.50 back on March 16th,
2001.  However, the trend appeared to reverse after hitting its
recent high just north of $50 at the end of June.  The month of
July has seen PSFT suffer a 19% haircut as of Wednesday's close.
Today the stock was hammered for another 9.88% loss on no news.
All we could find were potential rumors of a coming lawsuit or 
worse - potential accounting issues.  The media has not reported
on the rumors but the stock fell through support and its 200-dma.  
Volume was huge with 23.8 million shares versus the normal 
7 million.

POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  The chart looks pretty ugly and if the
rumors are true then PSFT could be trading for a lot less soon.
The trouble is rumor plays are so dangerous and short-term traders
could really get whipsawed easily.  Technicians could argue that
PSFT has support at $35, $32.50, and $25.  Well, we'd be happy to
short it to $25 but these concerns could evaporate if something 
doesn't confirm them.  Watch for a close under $35 and we'll
re-evaluate.  FYI: earnings are expected on July 24th.




---

AT&T Wireless Svcs - AWE - close: 17.39 change: +0.84

WHY WE LIKE IT:  This AT&T spin-off is finally on its own.  Parent
company AT&T finally set its wireless division free on July 9th.
This sounds great, right?  Well the logistics behind it meant a
huge increase in the float of AWE shares - an increase from 800 
million to 2 billion.  That's a lot to swallow for a sector of the
market that hasn't been doing so hot.  To make things better for
longer-term investors, Standard and Poors added AWE to the S&P 500
index now that the spin-off is an independent.  This should help
handle some of the volume as index fund managers might need to 
purchase a few more shares of the new addition.  Through it all,
most expected the stock to consolidate lower as the extra shares
hit the market.  The last couple of weeks have seen AWE range-bound
from $15.80 to $17.20.  That is until today.

POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  The stock gapped higher today and managed
to close at the high of trading.  This put it above resistance at
$17.20 and above its 50-dma.  The stock should appreciate to $18
and beyond that a potential move to $20.  We're going to be 
watching AWE to see if today's close can hold and if the bulls can
start to push the stock higher.  Look for earnings on July 24th.




---

Qlogic Corp. - QLGC - close: 45.70 change: +1.36

WHY WE LIKE IT:  Qlogic has been a recent play on PremierInvestor
so we'll keep this short.  Shares are breaking down and yester-
day's drop was on very strong volume.  Today's trading looked 
more like an oversold bounce than anything else.  With gloomy
news from tech heavyweights like MSFT and EMC, QLGC could 
quickly feel pressure as investors look for safer havens than 
tech stocks (again).  

POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  The stock price appears to have found
some support near $44.  Coincidentally, the 100-dma is below it
at $42.90.  One can argue that the stock should find support at
$40 but the question is will it hold or would it just be a speed
bump on the way down.  Our potential trigger will be a close
under $44.  Expect earnings on July 24th.




---

Bristol Myers Squibb - BMY - close: 55.55 change: +0.63

WHY WE LIKE IT:  As we mentioned earlier, the Drug sector has
managed a bounce with the positive earnings announcements from
JNJ and PFE offering hope where other companies are lowering
guidance.  BMY's stock has responded well and is off its recent
lows near $52.  We like BMY because the stock is climbing on
stronger than average volume.  Yesterday put the stock over
resistance of its 50-dma and today put the stock over 
resistance at $55.  

POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  BMY is due to announce earnings on 
July 25th.  We are merely watching to see if the rally in the
stock can continue.  Looking at the intraday chart, BMY looks
pretty strong closing at its high for the day.  Aggressive 
traders may want to jump at the stock now with a tight stop.
Watch out for its 100-dma directly overhead at 56.54 and BMY
could see more resistance at $57.50 but if the Drug sector
continues to climb BMY bulls are probably hoping for a run up
to $60.





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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 07-19-2001
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section two:

Split Trader
  Split Announcements: CHZ, SPRI, DCOM 
  New Plays: TRC Companies, Inc. - TRR
  Play Updates: Raising Stops
  Closed Plays: Johnson Control - JCI 

Net Bulls
  New Plays: No new play for NB
  Bullish Play Updates: PCLN, TTWO
  Bearish Play Updates: CHKP, BRCD
  Closed Plays: No closed play for NB

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: Fleming Companies - FLM (Bullish)
  Play Updates: LH, PATH, RAIL, SGU, THC
  Closed Plays: No closed plays


=================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

===================
Split Announcements
===================

Chittenden Declares Stock and Cash Dividends with Earnings

Bank holding company Chittenden Corporation (NYSE:CHZ) reported on 
Wednesday second quarter earnings in conjunction with a 5-for-4 
stock split and regular quarterly dividends. Net income of $0.55 
per diluted share increased two cents over the prior year, with 
total net income for the 2001 second quarter of $14.3 million 
sinking slightly to last year's $14.5 million.  The company 
attributes the decline to its share repurchase program. 

Chittenden also announced a 5-for-4 stock split, payable September 
14 in the form of a 25 percent stock dividend. The Company has an 
extensive split history, but this will be the first split since 1997. 
There are approximately 27 million shares currently outstanding 
and a float of 20 million. As approved by the Board, CHZ 
shareholders of record as of August 3 will also be eligible for 
a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share (pre-split) , to be 
paid on August 17.

CHZ shares opened the day's trading at $33.60, just off the 52-week 
high of $34.09 which was hit on June 28. Trading is light, with 
just 8 thousand shares changing hands; the average 3-month volume 
is 28.8 thousand.

Chittenden is a bank holding company with total assets of $3.9 
billion at June 30, 2001. Its subsidiary banks are Chittenden Bank, 
The Bank of Western Massachusetts, Flagship Bank and Trust Company, 
and Maine Bank & Trust Company. Chittenden Bank also operates under 
the names First Savings of New Hampshire and Mortgage Service Center,
 and it owns The Pomerleau Agency, 
and Chittenden Securities, Inc

 
 

===

Sporting a 2-for-1

Truck bed liner and raceway company, Sports Resorts International 
(Nasdaq: SPRI) announced the Board of Director's approval of the 
company's first-ever 2-for-1 stock split. However, the motion is 
pending shareholder's vote to increase the number of authorized 
common shares to 70 million.  A meeting date has not been 
determined but it is expected to be completed by late August.  
There are currently 35 million shares authorized and 24.2 million 
shares outstanding.

SPRI shares are up +0.50 by midday trading on Thursday to $14.04.  
Average volume is 18.9 thousand, with the current volume at 15.9.

About the Company:

Previously known as The Colonel's International, Inc., Sports 
Resorts, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the manufacture 
and sale of truck bed liners and the operation of a sports 
facility and raceway. The company is currently developing a plan 
for a $200 million sports and entertainment complex in Mt. Morris 
Township, Michigan.

 


===

Dime Community Announces Company's First-Ever Stock Split

During regular trading today, Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. 
(Nasdaq:DCOM) declared a 3-for-2 stock split, payable in the form 
of a 50 percent stock dividend. Stockholders of record on July 31 
will receive dividends on the payable date of August 21.

As of the execution date on August 22, there will be 
approximately 17 million common shares outstanding and a float of 
8.4 million. There are 45 million shares currently authorized for 
issuance.

Dime recently released fiscal fourth quarter earnings which 
reportedly increased 19% year-over-year and scored as the fifth 
consecutive year of record performance.  Earnings were $25.2 
million during the fiscal year ended June 30, 2001, compared to 
$22.4 million during fiscal 2000, a 13% increase. Earnings per 
diluted share increased 19% to a record $2.26 compared to $1.90 
per diluted share during the previous fiscal year. Return on 
average assets expanded 4 basis points to 0.97% during the year 
ended June 30, 2001.

DCOM opened Thursday's trading at $37.40 and is up +0.80 by 
midday to $38.07 on heavy volume of 90.9 thousand shares.

Dime Community Bancshares, Inc., a unitary thrift holding 
company, is the parent company of Dime Savings Bank of 
Williamsburgh, Brooklyn, New York, founded in 1864.

 



============
ST New Plays
============

  -------------------------
  New Split Candidate Plays
  -------------------------

TRC Companies, Inc. - TRR Close:$45.99 Change:+1.39 Stop:$42.00

Company Description:
This environmental services firm provides management, engineering, 
construction, and remedial services, such as air pollution control, 
management of solid and hazardous waste, and infrastructure 
improvements. Customers of the Windsor, Connecticut-based company 
include private companies, utilities, and government agencies.  TRC 
operates throughout the US, and the US government accounts for about 
9-percent of sales.  TRC has grown mainly through acquisitions, but 
its Exit Strategy Program has also created new business for the 
company including a $103 million contract with Consolidated Edison 
to clean up a site in New York City and a $21 million contract with 
Lockheed Martin to clean up sites in California, Massachusetts, and 
New Jersey.  The program allows customers to assign cleanup and 
remediation duties solely to TRC, which provides everything from 
technical expertise to cost cap insurance. 

Fundamentals: 
At its fiscal fourth quarter and 2001 year end earnings report on 
August 8th, the company is expected by analysts to announce 
quarterly earnings of 32-cents per share and annual earnings of 
$1.90 per share.  In the fiscal year ending in June 2002 the company 
is expected to earn $1.63 per share.  Last year, the company earned 
20-cent in the fourth quarter and 65-cents per share for the year.  
The company has a 2001 P/E of 42 and a 2002 P/E of 28.  The industry 
average P/E is 38.  The company has insignificant debt and a gross 
profit margin of 37.55-percent, which is twice the industry average 
of 16.43-percent.

Why We Like It: 
After a sharp move up from $39 to $43.75 on July 11th the shares 
settled in to a period of consolidate between roughly $42.50 and 
$45.00.  On Wednesday, the shares gave indication of a positive 
breakout when the stock closed up only 50-cents but on a sharp spike 
in volume to 169k from 74k of the previous day.  Thursday saw a 
follow through on the bullish momentum with a $1.39 per share pop 
on still solid volume of 143k.  The average daily volume is 169k.  
If the shares can maintain volume they should have enough momentum 
to best bullish resistance at $47.50 and put in a test of the $56.50 
52-week high set on June 6th.  On a fundamental basis the company is 
solid, with superior earnings growth.  The environmental industry is 
booming as products and services remains strong despite the weak 
economy.  We are setting an initial stop of $42.00. 

Picked on July 19th at $45.99
Earnings Date            8/8 (Not Confirmed)





===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  Split Candidate Updates
  -----------------------

Alliant Techsystems ATK Close:$94.90 Gain:+1.51 Stop:$93.45 NEW

Alliant just keeps moving higher.  Today it gained another $1.51, which 
put this stock above its 50-day moving average.  But we are now 
approaching a congestion area between 95 and 100 that has posed 
problems in the past, so we are moving up our stop to $93.45 to lock in 
some profits.  The stock could continue to move higher, but volume is 
light, and it is starting to look a little top heavy.  

Picked on July 12th at $89.90
Gain since picked:      +5.00
Earnings Date           8/9/01




===

Cerus Corporation CERS Close:$73.28 Gain:+1.97  Stop:$69.50 NEW

Cerus had good day, gaining $1.97, but it was on light volume.  
CERS is quickly approaching resistance at $76, so we are going to 
move up our stop to $69.75.

Picked on July 13th at  $69.25
Gain since picked:       +4.03
Earnings Date           7/24/01




===

NVR, Inc. NVR Close:$175.00 Gain:+5.50  Stop:$167.25 NEW

NVR continues to advance, and volume continues to pick up.  Things are 
looking good.  NVR did give back some of today's gains, but rallied in 
the last half hour of trading.  $180 could present some mild resistance 
since it is the location of some previous lows and is the 68.2% 
retracement level.  Just to make sure this doesn't turn into a losing 
pick, we are going to raise our stop to $167.25.  This is just below 
the gap that formed two days ago, and should be hit unless the picture 
abruptly changes.  

Picked on July 10 at   $166.30
Gain since picked:       +8.70
Earnings Date             N/A





===============
ST Closed Plays
===============

  ----------------------------
  Closed Split Candidate Plays
  ----------------------------

Johnson Control - JCI Close:$78.37 Change:+0.15 Stop:$77.50

Wednesday's take-no-prisoners down day tripped our $77.50 stop 
leaving us with a $1.30 per share gain.  We had tightened up the 
stop as we took a trend of decreasing volume over four consecutive 
days as a sign the bulls were running out of fuel.  However, 
Thursday seemed to arrest the slide and may be a sign of a bullish 
resurgence.

Picked on July 10th at $76.20
Gain since picked:      +1.30
Earnings Date            7/18





==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------------

PriceLine.com - PCLN - close: 8.42 change: -0.41 stop: 7.45 *new*

Are those dark clouds on the horizon?  Rival website destination
Travelocity (TVLY) announced earnings today reporting 8 cents a
share.  That was 3 cents over analyst estimates.  Revenues rose
76% which would have to be considered good news in any sector.
Optimistically, one would hope that PCLN would have rallied on
the news.  It's quite possible that investors are more concerned
about Pricelines' newest rival, Orbitz.  The month-old, mega-site,
is controlled by five airline carriers that represent almost 85% 
of the U.S. market.  Not only could PCLN investors be concerned 
about losing marketshare to Orbitz but discount travel firm, 
Hotwire just signed a customer-sharing deal with Orbitz.  Shares 
of PCLN hit a low of $8.04 and closed down over 4.6% on the day 
at 8.42.  Competition may really be heating up for PCLN and we're 
going to raise our stop to 7.45.

Picked on July 13th @ $ 8.70
Gain since picked:    - 0.28
Earnings Date:       7/31/01 (not confirmed)




===

Take-Two Interactive - TTWO - close: 20.15 change: +0.33 stop: 17.50

If this was a video game, our warning beacon just went off.  The
first half of the trading day was pretty exciting with shares
of TTWO up over five percent but minutes before 2:00 p.m. someone 
hit the "sell" button and the midday gains just evaporated.  Odds 
are the bulls just couldn't keep the stock up as the NASDAQ 
continued to fade into the afternoon.  In the news, TTWO announced 
they would acquire Hong Kong based Techcorp Limited, a game 
accessory and design firm.  

Picked on July 13th @ $19.96
Gain since picked:    + 0.19
Earnings Date:       late August (not confirmed)





  -----------------------
  NB Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------------

Check Point Software - CHKP Close:$39.91 Change:-0.18 Stop:$44.50

The teeter-totter continues for our Bearish selection as it dances 
near the edge at $40 with only a branch to grab at $30 to hamper 
its way down.  The outlook has not changed much from when we first 
identified this play on Wednesday.  A good earnings report from 
rival Symantec gave the bears a scare driving the shares up in 
morning trading to a session high of $$42.65, however the bears 
reasserted themselves and pushed the shares down for the better 
part of the remaining trading day.  Although the two companies are 
in the software security market, they are in different parts of 
it.  Checkpoint is strong in large-scale networks and the Internet,
while Symantec derives most of its revenue from selling to 
individual PC's.  Symantec has designs on Checkpoint's market - 
but it's not a factor yet.  In the meantime, Checkpoints market 
and real rivals are suffering.  We see little reason to alter our 
belief that Bearish sentiment is likely to increase for Checkpoint 
shares at least through to its July 23rd earnings release. 

Picked on July 18th at $40.09
Gain Since Picked       +0.18
Earnings Date            7/23 (Not Confirmed)




===

Brocade - BRCD Closed:$32.10 Change:+1.96 Stop:$35.00 new

We did not feel the early rally on Thursday was going to have 
legs so we moved our stop out of harms way.  The late fade on 
Thursday justified our belief and confirms the rising bearish 
sentiment.  .

Picked on July 16 at   $34.06
Gain/loss since picked: +1.96
Earnings Date            8/14 (Not Confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  --------------
  New Long Plays
  --------------

Fleming Companies - FLM Close:$37.30 Change:+0.76 Stop:$35.50

Company Description:
Fleming supplies more products for your home than any other company 
you've never heard of.  This Lewisville, Texas company is the 
nation's second largest wholesale food distributor.  The company 
supplies brand-name and private-label food and general merchandise 
to about 7,000 US retailers, including mass merchandisers (Kmart is 
a new $4.5 billion dollar account), independent retailers, its own 
franchised stores (Piggly Wiggly and IGA), limited assortment 
stores, and convenience stores.  It also owns more than 90 stores 
that operate under the Food 4 Less, Rainbow Foods, and Yes!Less 
banners. In addition, Fleming also offers a wide array of marketing, 
consulting, and insurance services to food retailers.   After losing 
several of its largest customers (Randall's Food Markets, Furr's 
Supermarkets), the company is restructuring itself to become more 
efficient.  It is cutting unprofitable company-owned retail chains 
and consolidating distribution facilities. 

Fundamentals: 
When the company reports second-quarter 2001 earnings on August 1st 
it is expected to have increased quarterly earnings from 35-cents per 
share the previous year to 42-cents.  On an annual basis, the firm is 
expected to jump earnings from $1.56 per share in 2000 to $1.96 in 
2001 and $2.57 in 2002.  They have a current P/E of 24 and a forward 
2001 P/E of 19.  This is inline with the industry average P/E of 19. 
However, their earnings growth rate is well above the industry 
average.  Their 2001 earnings growth rate is 25.6-percent against 
the 9.8-percent industry average.  Much of this can be attributed 
to the success of their expense reductions and the expected $180 
million in savings from the KMart deal.  

Why We Like It: 
The economy may suffer, but people have to eat making Fleming a 
true economic turndown resistant company.  In addition, the 
significant progress the company has made to cut costs and the 
prospects of further reductions are good harbingers of the future.  
Also promising is conversations with Kmart about Fleming providing 
health and beauty products - a $2 billion opportunity.  The company 
is also aggressively pursuing the convenience store market, and 
expects to increase annual sales to this area from the current 
$1 billion level to over $3 billion in future years.  

On Thursday, the stock broke out of a $35 to $36.90 range it had 
been in since the beginning of July.  It also set a new 52-week 
high eclipsing the $36.90 from July 13th.  The move was accompanied 
by solid volume of 454k traded, which is above the average volume of 
422k.  This suggests the shares are ready to rally into the earnings 
announcement.  We will set an initial stop at $35.50.   

Picked on July 19th at $37.30
Earnings Date            8/1 (Not Confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Long Play Updates
  -----------------

Laboratory Corporation - LH Close:$85.10 Change:+0.32 Stop:$82.00

LH was up $1.62 at one point today, but like many stocks today, 
it faded into the close.  It still closed up 32 cents, but I 
would rather not have seen the late day weakness.  The good news 
is that volume was like, and support is strong at $82.50, if 
needed.

Picked on July 13th at $83.98
Gain since picked:      +1.12
Earnings Date           7/23/01




===

AmeriPath - PATH Close:$33.89 Change:+0.05 Stop:$31.95

AmeriPath took a breather for the second straight day.  After 
running up for 8 straight days, it was due.  Watch for PATH to 
take out today's low of $32.95 as an initial sign of weakness.

Picked on July 11th at $30.95
Gain since picked:      +2.94
Earnings Date           7/31/01




===

RailAmerica - RAIL Close:$12.65 Change:+0.20 Stop:$10.25

Rail continued to consolidate for the third straight day.  By 
holding above the 50-day moving average, it should break out to 
the upside.  Resistance at $12.90 will be the test.

Picked on June 14th at $11.41
Gain since picked:      +1.24
Earnings Date            N/A




===

Star Gas Partners - SGU Close:$20.76 Change:-0.17 Stop:$19.50

Nothing new here.  The shares continue to move sideways on light 
volume.  We are waiting for a spike volume to indicate the Bulls 
are ready to become active and start the next leg up..

Picked on June 17th at $21.18
Gain since picked:      -0.42
Earnings Date            7/26




===

Tenet Healthcare - THC Close:$54.78 Gain:-0.97 Stop:$53.75 

After a nice run, these shares are starting to look tired.  They 
may need to touch base with support at $52.50 before resuming 
their well established longer-term up trend.  We have our stop at 
a snug $53.75. 

Picked on June 17th at $51.09
Gain since picked:      +3.30
Earnings Date           7/25/01





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