PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 07-23-2001 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/3155_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Follow up is important Market Sentiment: Relatively Speaking Play-of-the-Day: Alliant Techsystems - ATK (Bullish) Watch List: Check Out Our New Format ----------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Market Numbers ----------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 07-25-2001 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10405.67 +164.55 10405.67 10241.19 1.25 bln 1896/1167 NASDAQ 1984.32 + 25.08 1984.98 1942.58 1.68 bln 1912/1758 S&P 100 613.95 + 9.79 613.99 603.79 totals 3808/2925 S&P 500 1190.49 + 18.84 1190.52 1171.28 RUS 2000 476.99 + 2.73 476.99 471.52 DJ TRANS 2865.00 + 1.55 2866.27 2841.88 VIX 26.70 - 0.93 28.49 26.46 Put/Call Ratio 0.64 ----------------------------------------------------------------- =========== Market Wrap =========== Follow up is important by Jeff Bailey Let's wrap up some observations made from this morning and then again at 01:30 EST. Let's also try and bring into the fold what took place in the bond market today, because I don't want bullish traders to get a false sense of security with today's higher bond yields. The way the trading day unfolded was interesting and hopefully we all understand that the longer-term trend must start with the short term. Sometimes I think its is easy to talk about levels during market commentary and then never think of them again. Let's start with the bond market as that was our first alert for a potentially higher stock market. We'll then talk abut that darned Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) and how it got turned around and totally erased an earlier loss of 2.5% and ended up with a gain of 0.91%. Then we'll see if some levels from the SOX.X and bond yield levels become meaningful with the S&P 500 and things mentioned this morning at 09:00 EST. What we're doing is looking at the MARKET in three-dimensions. Not just because we're talking about three different indexes, but because we're looking at different parts that make up the whole. Just as the X-ray allowed doctors to look at the patience insides, the MRI provided the ability to look at the patient in 3-dimensions. All the parts make up the whole and the bond market is a part of THE MARKET we invest our hard earned money. First of all, before the stock market opened, the first "upside" alert that hit my trade station was the upside action in the 10- year YIELD ($TNX.X) at 5.117%. This was mentioned in the second paragraph of the 09:00 Update. I've felt for sometime that for stocks to do well, we needed to see a higher YIELD. By today's end, the 10-year YIELD finished at 5.159% (higher than first alert at 5.117%). Often times, I get questions on why I look at charts on 60-minute time frames for bond YIELDS. These questions usually come from investors or longer-term swing traders. I agree that what happens in a 15-minute time frame is rather meaningless to the longer-term trader, but we do have a diverse group of subscribers. If we believe that the longer-term trend starts with the short-term, perhaps some of what we saw take place in the bond market makes sense as it relates to what I've been talking about. That would be the "not so popular" belief of HIGHER YIELDS makes for HIGHER STOCK PRICES. This logic is simply based on supply/demand. Sell the bond (higher yield results) and buy the stock or buy the bond (lower yield results) and sell the stock. 10-year Treasury YIELD Chart - 15-minute interval It doesn't always unfold this nicely, but I show the 15-minute interval chart to help bring in perspective just how the bond YIELD action can influence the stock market bias. I've said before that equity bears are looking over their shoulders at the bond market. Right now I feel the biggest threat to a short position I hold would be for some institution to unload $1 million worth of 10-year notes that is only yielding 5.1%, take that cash and buy $1 million worth of the stock I'm short! Study the time line that I've marked on the chart. I've tried to highlight "key" inflexion points. The four "key points" are the alert at 08:20 EST, the jump in yield at 10:05, then the pullback in yield to 11:05, then a small breakout in yield at 01:50 (all times are EST and come at the end of the 15-minute interval). Remember that the bond market opens before the stock market and closes before the stock market. Now! Of the four "key" inflexion points, the one that is probably MOST KEY is the 5.146% YIELD at 01:50 EST. Remember that "rolling retracement" update today at 01:30 EST? We rolled down retracement in the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) to try and define some levels of market maker support. We needed to do this because the SOX was breaking down and we didn't have anyway to assess risk in the sector/index. The first level we were monitoring then (and will continue to want to monitor) is the 528 area. Semiconductor Index Chart - 15-minute intervals The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) was the topic of conversation today as this index looked to be breaking recent lows and leading sector losers. It also seemed to be putting pressure on the NASDAQ Composite. As we look at various broader market indexes, it's probably unfair to think that the SOX by itself was pulling the SPX back to breakeven levels after a higher open and early advance. I'd also argue that the recovery in the SOX from the lows of 530.86 was just a turning point that the market had decided upon. I'd argue it was the YIELD action in the bond market and perhaps the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) at approximately 01:50 EST that had stocks finding bidders (perhaps bears looking over their shoulder) and that had stocks recovering. When you study the chart of the 10-year YIELD, notice how that little break higher at 01:50 EST probably set off some short-covering by bears when they felt, "uh oh, it looks like the bond market is going to see further selling and I can lock in some gains in semiconductor stocks near a retracement support level" and perhaps market makers started lightening up on their offers in four-lettered semiconductor stocks (and other NASDAQ stocks). I'll admit, it's rather "simplistic" to think this way, but that's the way market makers think. All a market maker cares about is support and resistance levels by witch they will manage their inventory risk. Market participants that are bearish have all the recent bad news in earnings and economic slowing in their favor. Their only threat is money coming into the stock market from participants that think stocks offer a more favorable risk/reward compared to the YIELDS (reward) and safety of the treasury. When the 10-year YIELD kicked higher, I think that's when many market makers lightened up on their offers, took in some stock near support (as it relates to the SOX) and started adjusting inventory should a prolonged bout of selling continue in the bond market (higher YIELD). A market maker is no fool. If he/she thinks there will be buyers for stocks based on the selling of bond, they'd want to have some inventory of stock to sell their customers without having to short it to them and take on that risk (a market maker can either sell long to provide liquidity to a buyer, or sell short to provide liquidity to a buyer). DIVERGENCE! I think last night I said something like, "I've profited more from divergence that I have from similarity." Today we saw DIVERGENCE for a little while as it relates to the scenario of higher bond YIELD creates a higher stock market. After all, the 10-year bond YIELD never went red today, but the SOX sure as heck did and so did the NASDAQ and the QQQ. That is DIVERGENCE for my scenario and all of a sudden I got the feeling that the break to new intra-day highs for the 10-year YIELD all of a sudden had market participants buying some stocks or at least had some market participants not selling as much stock (in the belief that money may be freeing up from bonds and that money may go into stocks.) By sessions end, the bulk of the day's divergence was erased and stock ended higher. OK, this is a very short-term perspective, but hopefully you can now begin to understand how even the short-term can eventually turn into the long-term. If the market is so focused on what the heck bond YIELDS are doing on a 15-minute basis, then perhaps we can continue to use the power of this indicator to better asses how the market is going to react. I look at the bond market differently than stocks. In a way they are the same, but they are also very different investment instruments. The understanding of the difference between a stock and bond is like night and day. The stock has no guarantee of return, while the bond is a guarantee of stated coupon YIELD and return of face value of the bond. If you can look at some other stocks and try to see what happened to their price action around 01:50 EST. Was there a support level nearby? Did the stock seemingly find buyers out of nowhere like most other stocks seemed to find. Did the stock just continue lower and didn't seem to care what the broader stock or bond market was doing? Aha! If you find a stock that continued lower and didn't seem to care about the higher bond YIELD and the turn higher in stocks at 01:50 EST, then that's DIVERGENCE and that might be tomorrows opportunity. If the market was willing to sell a stock even though the bulk of the market direction had turned higher, that might mean the MARKET has more stock to sell. Tomorrow an equity bull wants to see more selling in bonds I think. Today was just one day. That is very short-term, but we all know that the longer-term is built one day at a time! ================ Market Sentiment ================ Relatively Speaking by Jeffrey Canavan On a relative strength basis the Russell 2000 has been outperforming the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, but could small caps be losing their appeal? Yesterday the Russell 2000 fell 1.6% more than any other major index. Today the Russell 2000 gained a measly 0.57%, while everybody else gained well over 1.2%. Relative Strength Charts of Russell 2000 to S&P 500 and Nasdaq Looking at the first chart, we can see that the Russell 2000 has been gaining relative strength against the S&P 500 since December of 2000. That means that small caps stocks have been gaining more, or falling less, than the S&P 500. But that trend spiked in June, and has been falling since. Now the long-term up trend is in jeopardy. If that trend is broken, the S&P 500 might be a better place to look for bullish stocks, and the Russell 2000 better for shorting. The Russell 2000 has also been smoking the Nasdaq Composite, but that trend has flattened out a little since early April. If technology is starting to outperform, small caps must be in trouble. Small caps will continue to go as the rest of the market goes, but their period of outperforming may be coming to an end if these trends are broken. *************************Sector Watch**************************** Weekly Daily Overbought Support Resistance Trend Trend Oversold DJIA Bearish Bearish Oversold 10,200 10,600 NASD Bearish Bearish Oversold 1,940 2,125 S&P 500 Bearish Bearish Oversold 1,170 1,205 Rus 2000 Bearish Bearish Oversold 465 485 Semis Bearish Bearish Neutral 525 585 Biotech Bearish Bearish Neutral 490 550 Internet Bearish Bearish Oversold 140 170 Networking Bearish Neutral Neutral 300 365 Software Bearish Bearish Oversold 180 200 Banking Neutral Neutral Neutral 625 670 Retail Neutral Bullish Neutral 875 920 Drugs Bearish Neutral Neutral 380 410 Percent Change Last Last Last Relative Strength 5 Days 10 Days 30 Days vs S&P 500 DJIA (3.4%) 0.6% (6.2%) Positive NASD (1.6%) 0.6% (8.6%) Neutral S&P 500 (1.4%) 0.8% (5.2%) N/A Rus 2000 (3.3%) (0.8%) (6.4%) Neutral Semis (1.8%) (0.9%) (15.5%) Negative Biotech (2.3%) (3.4%) (14.2%) Negative Internet (10.0%) (9.7%) (30.4%) Negative Networking (1.2%) 1.5% (23.0%) Neutral Software (1.7%) (3.2%) (17.3%) Negative Banking (1.8%) 2.4% 0.4% Positive Retail 0.4% 8.1% 0.5% Positive Drugs (2.2%) 1.5% (4.1%) Neutral ***************************************************************** =============== Play-of-the-Day =============== Alliant Techsystems - ATK Close:$95.44 Change:+1.52 Stop:$92.50 NEW Comments When Originally Selected on July 24th: Company Description: Alliant Techsystems is the Pentagon's largest ammunition supplier and the world's largest manufacturer of solid-fuel rocker engines. This Hopkins, Minnesota-based firm has three business groups: aerospace systems, conventional munitions, and defense systems. The company's aerospace group makes solid propulsion systems for space vehicles, strategic missile systems, and reinforced composite structures for aircraft and spacecraft. Its conventional munitions group makes ammunition ranging from small arms to tank ammunition for the M1A1 Abrams (the US's main battle tank). Alliant Techsystems' defense systems group turns out smart munitions, electronic systems, and batteries. The US government (and its contractors) accounts for about two-thirds of the company's sales. Fundamentals: It's mid-2001 acquisition of Alcoa's Thiokol rocket engine unit should cause a 50-percent pop in revenue for the fiscal 2002 year ending in March. Analysts forecast the firm will earn $5.34 per share in the current fiscal year on revenue of $1.6 billion. Last year the firm earned $4.80 per share on sales of $1.1 billion. This gives the shares a current P/E of 19.8 and an estimated 2002 P/E of 17.9. This is inline with the industry average P/E of 17.07. Why We Like It: We liked this stock when we first selected it in June, we liked it when we booked some profits on a dip and we still like it now that it is bouncing off of support. The reason we are so bullish has not changed. At their annual meeting on August 7th, shareholders are scheduled to vote on increasing the number of outstanding shares by 40 million from the current 14.2 million. This sets the stage nicely for a stock split. Another sign that encourages us that a split may be in the cards is historical. In November 2000 the company split 3 for 2. That split was declared when the stock price was $89.00 - below current levels. Combine the company's strong fundamentals, a defense friendly political environment, bullish short-term technical momentum with split potential and there is much to be bullish about this stock. Strong downside support is nearby at $92.50 and upside resistance at $100.00. We will tighten up our stop when $100 comes near. For now we will start this play with a stop just below support at $91.50. Updated Comments: A $1.37 first day gain was a good start for this Bullish selection. Volume was solid at 148k shares traded as compared to the 136k daily average. Our outlook remains the same. We see a short-term test of $100 with a good likelihood of besting the 52-week high of $102.00. We will shimmy our stop up to $92.50. Picked on July 24th at $95.44 Gain Since Picked +1.35 Earnings Date 8/8 (Confirmed) ========== Watch List ========== We're are offering a slightly different format on the daily Watch List tonight. With a 164-point relief rally on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the everyday investor might believe that the whole market must have rallied today. This is far from the truth. The DJIA is only comprised of 30 stocks. They are 30 stocks picked to help represent the market as a whole but they are still just 30 stocks. Today's rally was built on the positive performances of half the DJIA components. Leading the way were AA +4.91%, T +3.54%, SBC +6.32%, HD +4.39%, WMT +3.76%, MCD +3.20%, and MMM +3.08%. Obviously this is not all the winners but they are some of the bigger movers in the Dow. Tonight we are going to list two sections. These are by no means exhaustive lists of possible plays but merely some of the more defined opportunities with clear trigger points. Trade cautiously as many of these opportunities could work well with very tight stops. If you like this new format or prefer the old one, please send an email to james@PremierInvestor.net ------------------------------------------------------ The List to Watch if You Think the Market is Going Up! ------------------------------------------------------ Sun Microsystems - SUNW - close: 15.56 change: +0.66 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: SUNW just finished its second up day in a row. It managed to close right on its most current down trending resistance line (of lower highs). Bullish tech traders could watch SUNW for a break above $16 as a potential long-play. Once over $16, potential resistance is at $17 and again near $19.25. --- Oracle Corp. - ORCL - close: 19.29 change: +1.08 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: Oracle has been on and off the watch list for weeks as it continues to consolidate under heavy resistance at $20. The stock set a new higher low yesterday near $18 and today's 5.9% move is impressive. Our potential trigger to go long is still a close over $20. --- Microsoft Corp. - MSFT - close: 67.34 change: +1.02 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: Shares of MSFT also participated in the rally today but only managed to add a point after bouncing off its 100-dma near 65.46. If the stock can continue to climb, the top of its current range is between $73 and $74. A potential trigger to go long would be a close over $68. --- Siebel Systems, Inc. - SEBL - close: 33.69 change: +2.66 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: Now that earnings are already past for SEBL, the worse may be over. The stock put in a potential bottom yesterday with its intraday dip to $30. If the bulls can keep this rally alive then shares of SEBL might be able to reach $40 again. A nice trigger point would be a close over $34. --- VERITAS - VRTS - close: 39.06 change: +1.68 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: Another stock that suffered a large drop after is earnings report is VRTS. Shares of VRTS may have put in a bottom with its intraday low near $34 back on the 19th of July. The stock has quietly been inching higher since and if the market is going to climb higher the stock might be able to fill the recent gap. This would mean a potential climb back to the $48-$50 area. An easy trigger point to go long would be a close over $40. --- VeriSign - VRSN - close: 47.24 change: +2.88 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: This one requires extra care as earnings are expected tomorrow, July 26th. Short-term direction will be a result of how the company reports and if there are any snags in their outlook going forward. Looking at the stock, shares have been building a small base at $42. A positive close in the $48 to $50 area (conservative traders should wait for it to close over $50) could herald a new trend and the stock could appreciate to resistance near $60. --- Check Point Software - CHKP - close: 39.50 change: +1.63 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: CHKP is another stock that has been fighting its way back after the negative reaction to its earnings report. CHKP is currently a short-play on PremierInvestor.net but if the stock closes hits $40, PI will likely close the short play and bulls can look at this as a potential trigger to go long the stock. There is mild resistance at $42.50 but above this the stock could climb to $50 or higher if the market puts in a prolonged rally. Then again, if the market sours again the stock should return to $35 and we'll be looking for new lows. --- Nokia Corp. - NOK - close: 19.61 change: +0.41 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: NOK's next bullish move could be dependant on the development and implementation of the next generation of handsets and the new wireless networks build to make them work (both referred to as 3G or third generation). The stock has been consolidating in a tight range between $19 and $20. Our potential bullish signal will be a strong close over $20. There is obvious resistance at the $21.50 level but beyond that is anyone's guess. --- Procter & Gamble - PG - close: 70.00 change: +1.91 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: Shares of PG closed with an impressive 2.8% gain climbing throughout the day with a strong finish in the last forty minutes of trading. Without looking at the news to see what has powered the move we see that there was a similar move in the Retail Index (RLX.X). PG's stock has seen a strong climb from its recent June low near $62 and the stock has been consolidating around its 200-dma and support at $68. A bullish trader's potential trigger event would be a close over $70. Strong overhead resistance can be seen between $76 and $78. --- eBay Inc - EBAY - close: 61.76 change: +0.04 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: This one belongs on both the UP list and the DOWN list. If the market continues up, shares of EBAY could find a bottom at $60 and the upside potential is a short term gain to $68-$70. If the market falls then a breakdown below $60 could easily lead to a drop to $55 where traders should see the next support level. Beyond that, shares could stall at its 200-dma currently resting near 48.75. --- Xilinx, Inc. - XLNX - close: 36.46 change: +0.58 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: As with most semiconductor stocks, traders should watch both the broader market and the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) for direction of XLNX. Shares of XLNX are trading near support at $35. As with EBAY above, this one could easily go either way. If the market has a prolonged rally (and the SOX cooperates) then XLNX could see a potential $40-$42. If the market and the SOX falls, then XLNX is likely to retest April lows of $30. -------------------------------------------------------- The List to Watch if You Think the Market is Going Down! -------------------------------------------------------- Applied Materials, Inc. - AMAT - close: 43.59 change: +0.64 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: You should recognize this one as another semiconductor company. AMAT has been in a downtrend for a few weeks and is currently near the top of its channel. Shares didn't do much today with the rally and if the market drops AMAT should fall to $40 and potentially drop to $37. Keep your eye on the SOX. --- Maxim Integrated Products - MXIM - close: 38.16 change: -3.88 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: We're not trying to pick on semiconductors but there are several in this group that really don't look very healthy. Shares of MXIM fell over 9% today, which is pretty negative in the face of a market rally. If the drop continues, shares of MXIM are likely to hit April lows of $34. We would not be surprised to see shares rally back to 39.25 before rolling over again. --- Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 26.47 change: +0.32 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: For many traders, Disney's stock really doesn't move fast enough to make it exciting to trade. Despite this, shares are once again knocking against support at $26. The stock has managed to bounce here multiple times since last December. If shares breakdown below $26, investors could see a drop to $23.50 or almost a 10% move. --- BEA Systems - BEAS - close: 19.90 change: -1.28 POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: BEAS is currently a long play on PremierInvestor.net but our stop is at 19.50. If the stock trades through out stop then traders should be watching for shares to potentially trade to $15. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 07-24-2001 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/3155_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: Split Trader Split Announcements: None New Plays: Biomet, Inc. - BMET (Split Run) Play Updates: See Play of Day in section 1 -ATK Closed Plays: No closed ST plays Net Bulls New Plays: No new NB plays Play Updates: Updates to stops Closed Bullish Plays: PCLN, BEAS Closed Bearish Plays: Skillsoft Corporation - SKIL Stock Bottom / Active Trader New Plays: No new play for SB Play Updates: Stops updated Closed Long Play: AmeriPath - PATH ================================================================= Split Trader (ST) section ================================================================== =================== Split Announcements =================== ============ ST New Play ============ ------------------- New Split Run Play ------------------- Biomet, Inc. - BMET Close:$48.83 Change:+1.98 Stop:$45.50 Company Description: An aging population means business is booming for this maker of artificial knees, hips, shoulders, fixation devices (bone screws and pins), orthopedic support devices, dental implants, and operating- room supplies. Through its EBI subsidiary, the firm also sells electrical bone-growth stimulators and external devices, which are attached to bone and protrude from the skin. Subsidiary Walter Lorenz Surgical markets craniofacial implants and bone substitute material for craniomaxillofacial surgery. Reconstructive devices account for some 60-percent of sales, and the US is its largest market (about 70- percent) of sales). Fundamentals: On July 9th, the company announced record fourth-quarter and fiscal year profits. Quarterly net income increased 17-percent to 33-cents per share. For the fiscal year ended in May 2001, the company earned $1.20 per share on sales of $1.0 billion. In the current year, analysts expect the company to earn $1.38 per share on $1.2 billion and $1.58 per share in 2003. This gives them a current P/E of 41 and a forward one of 35. The industry average P/E is 30. Why We Like It: There are several reasons to like Biomet, it is one of the better revenue and earnings producers in the medical device industry, it is taking market share (particularly in the knee implant and spinal segments) and margins are widening. However, its recent short-term bullishness is coming from a cash dividend of $.135 per share payable July 27th and a 3:2 stock split to be issued on August 7th. On Wednesday, the shares jumped $1.98 on a spike in volume to 2.4 million shares traded. The volume is more than twice that of the previous day, and the highest daily volume since June 12th. The session high and close came within a hair of the 52-week bests set in late-June. Clearly, these shares have got it going and should be able to maintain their bullish momentum into the split date. We will start these shares with a stop at $45.50. Picked on July 25th at $48.83 Earnings Date N/A (Not Confirmed) =============== ST Play Updates =============== ----------------------- Split Candidate Updates ----------------------- See Play of Day in section 1 ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) section ================================================================== =============== NB Play Updates =============== ----------------------- NB Bearish Play Updates ----------------------- Change stops: Checkpoint (CHKP) to $39.75 Brocade (BRCD) to $30.88 =============== NB Closed Plays =============== ----------------- Closed Long Plays ----------------- PriceLine.com - PCLN - Close:$8.27 Change: +0.34 Stop:$7.45 Too little, too late - at least for us. An early morning swoon to the $17.40 session low barely tripped our $17.45 stop. This is too bad as the shares made an abrupt reversal and ran strong for the remainder of the session. The shares look good again for a test of $9.00 and possibly $10.00. Picked on July 13th @ $ 8.70 Gain since picked: - 1.25 Earnings Date: 7/31 (not confirmed) === BEA Systems - BEAS - Closed 21.18 Change: +0.47 Stop: 19.50 Tuesday's bearish momentum finally pushed the shares past our stop. There was big time resistance at $20 and so our stop was just a hair below it at $19.50. That the bearish momentum was strong enough close underneath $20 was a bad omen for longs. The next support level is at $17.50. Picked on July 20th @ $23.01 Gain since picked: - 1.83 Earnings Date: 08/14 (not confirmed) -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Skillsoft Corporation - SKIL Close:$30.80 Change:+2.79 Stop:$31.00 This one just did not work. Shares often suffer in the days following the announcement of a secondary offering and SKIL was no exception. It had a technical picture that was a thing of beauty to a bear. That picture was altered abruptly when the offering was executed on Wednesday. The shares were fully subscribed causing the stock to rise and shorts to cover. The newfound bullish momentum tripped our stop at $31.00 leaving us with a loss. Picked on July 24th at $28.01 Gain Since Picked: -2.99 Earnings Date N/A (Not Confirmed) ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== =============== AT Play Updates =============== ------------------ Long Play Updates ------------------ Change stop for Anadarko Petroleum (APC) to $52.00 ------------------ Short Play Updates ------------------ Change stops: CSG Systems (CSGS) to $49.00 Professional Detailing (PDII) to $67.25 =============== AT Closed Plays =============== ---------------- Closed Long Play ---------------- AmeriPath PATH Close:$33.02 Change:-2.18 Stop:$34.00 A mixed picture in healthcare continued today and AmeriPath was pushed past our $34.00 stop leaving us with a $3.05 per share gain on this play. Support exists at $32.50 and $30. Once the sector weakness passes we would not be surprised to see these shares put together an old-fashioned pre-earnings announcement rally. Picked on July 11th at $30.95 Gain since picked: +3.05 Earnings Date 7/31 (Confirmed) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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