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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 07/30/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 07-30-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
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In section one:

Market Wrap: Stocks Traded Tight Range
Market Sentiment: ARF!
Play-of-the-Day: AmeriSource Health - AAS (Bullish)
Watch List: Volume Holds The Key

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
        07-30-2001        High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10410.72 - 14.95 10440.48 10361.45   1.07 bln   1678/1451
NASDAQ   2017.84 - 11.23  2039.01  2009.94   1.36 bln   1848/2049
S&P 100   618.89 -  1.27   621.73   616.80   totals     3526/3500
S&P 500  1204.52 -  1.30  1209.05  1200.41             
RUS 2000  484.71 -  0.30   485.54   481.34
DJ TRANS 2912.22 +  2.34  2918.06  2906.04 
VIX        24.03 -  0.70    25.07    23.99 
Put/Call Ratio      1.72
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Stocks Traded Tight Range

Stocks traded in a tight range today as bulls and bears seemed to 
lack conviction and were unable to really get any type of a move 
going.  Earlier in the day, the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 
seemed to try and assert itself as the tech leader, but by 
sessions end, the group finished up fractionally with the AMEX 
Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) leading the sector gainers list with a 
rise of 1.74% to close at 84.77%.

Disk Drive Index - last 10 months



The DDX.X used to be a group of stocks that trader loved to 
trade.  When the PC industry does well, this group of stocks does 
well.  Group components are some names that traders will 
remember, but have long forgotten.  Like many industries that go 
have their up and down cycles, these stocks have seen better 
times.  The group seems to have its supporters at the $78-$80 
level and there's some upside to retracement levels at $96 and 
$104.  Those stock symbols that are components of this group 
include ADPT, ADIC, HTCH, IOM, FLSH, MXO, DSS, RDRT, SNDK, and 
STK.

Some of the above stocks can provide wild trading from time to 
time.  Shares of Disk Drive Index component of Hutchison 
Technology (NASDAQ:HTCH) jumped 6.8% today to $18.50 and this 
stock has been acting well relative to the group and the market 
on a longer-term basis.  The stock is rather thinly traded and 
provides wild swings.  Today's volume of 401,400 shares is well 
above the 3-month average daily volume of 103,000 shares.

Hutchinson Technology Chart - last 10 months



Hutchinson's chart is interestingly bullish as there aren't too 
many computer related technology stocks that are trading above 
both their 200-day and 50-day moving averages.  The company 
manufactures the bulk of the industries suspension system 
assemblies using proprietary technology that facilitates the 
precise specifications that are critical to maintaining 
microscopic clearance between the head and disk.

What may be interesting to investors is how this group of stocks 
(disk drives) is acting relative to its demand channel and some 
of the personal computer makers.  From time to time we've talked 
about similar technicals developing in shares of Dell Computer 
(NASDAQ:DELL).  While Dell Computer doesn't buy suspension 
assemblies direct fro Hutchinson (HTCH), most of the world's disk 
drive manufacturers do.

Dell Computer Chart - last 10 months



Shares of Dell Computer (NASDAQ:DELL) have been quietly inching 
higher in recent months and have diverged from the recent NASDAQ 
decline in July.  A bullish trader in Dell would have like to see 
the stock break above its 200-day moving average in late June on 
BIG volume of 75,000,000 shares plus, but the recent pullbacks to 
61.8% retracement indicated that the stock may be getting some 
sponsorship.  Earning for Dell Computer are due on August 16th 
(unconfirmed at this point) and we may have to wait until then 
for institutions to really cast their vote for the stock on a 
longer-term basis.  Still, it's interesting to note that a disc 
drive component stocks is acting well along with a personal 
computer manufacturer.  Could it be that this sector of 
technology is starting to turn around?  Looks like signs of a 
turnaround are in the making to me.

Of the major PC manufacturers Dell Computer (DELL), Apple 
Computer (NASDAQ:AAPL), Compaq Computer (NYSE:CPQ) and Gateway 
Computer (NYSE:GTW) shares of Dell look to be the most 
technically sound.  Should the remaining three-horsemen start to 
mimic some of the technicals found in Dell, look to play some of 
the disk drive stocks in unison.

As for the broader market today, there really didn't seem to be 
any market moving stocks doing much.  The current market 
environment seems to be lacking any type of "market moving news" 
to really get traders off their stools.  

Tomorrow after the bell, KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) is expected to 
release earning after the closing bell and that might be the only 
technology stock that traders are looking to for some type of 
blockbuster news.  The average estimate of analysts are looking 
for the company to report earnings of 26 cents a share, which is 
well below last year comparison quarter when the company reported 
a profit of 47 cents a share.  Today, shares of KLAC finished the 
session with a 2.46% gain to close at $55.24 after trading as 
high as $57.20.


================
Market Sentiment
================

ARF!

The dog days of summer are upon us, and Jim Oberweis, President 
of Oberweis Asset Management, sums up the prevailing market 
sentiment, "The biggest thing on investors' minds is how busy the 
golf course is."  Paltry Volume of 1.3 billion on the Nasdaq 
echoes that sentiment.

Now that earnings season is drawing to a close, it's up to 
economic data to spur some market interest.  On the slate for 
this week is personal income, the Chicago Purchasing Managers 
Index, consumer confidence, and unemployment claims.  Now that we 
have enough rate cuts under our belt, investors want to see these 
numbers coming in better than they have in the past.  

Semiconductor Index Daily Chart



But can these economic numbers spark enough interest to push 
sectors past resistance?  The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) was one 
of today's better performing sectors, up 0.65%, but look at the 
overhead resistance - downtrends, moving averages, retracement 
levels, and a stochastic that is quickly approaching overbought.  
That's asking a lot of economic data.  If the SOX can climb above 
615, it could be viewed as a small double bottom, but a trading 
range between 615 and 530 looks just as probable.  

Not all sectors have as much resistance converging in one area, 
but there is enough resistance nearby to limit the upside of most 
sectors.  Listless days like today don't help.

*************************Sector Watch****************************

            Weekly   Daily     Overbought    Support  Resistance 
            Trend    Trend      Oversold                         

DJIA        Bearish  Bearish    Oversold      10,200   10,600
NASD        Bearish  Bearish    Neutral        1,940    2,125
S&P 500     Bearish  Bearish    Neutral        1,170    1,205
Rus 2000    Bearish  Bearish    Neutral          465      485

Semis       Bearish  Bearish    Neutral          550      615
Biotech     Bearish  Bearish    Neutral          490      550
Internet    Bearish  Bearish    Oversold         140      170
Networking  Bearish  Neutral    Neutral          300      365
Software    Bearish  Bearish    Neutral          180      200
Banking     Neutral  Neutral    Neutral          625      670
Retail      Neutral  Bullish    Neutral          875      920
Drugs       Bearish  Neutral    Neutral          380      410


               Percent Change
            Last    Last    Last    Rel Strength   Point and 
           5 Days  10 Days 30 Days   vs S&P 500   Figure Signal
DJIA       (1.5%)   (1.2%)  (2.6%)    Neutral         Buy
NASD        1.5%    (0.6%)  (0.5%)    Neutral         Sell
S&P 500     1.1%     0.2%   (0.8%)      N/A           Sell
Rus 2000    0.4%     0.2%   (2.1%)    Neutral         Sell

Semis       8.6%     8.5%   (0.5%)    Neutral         Sell
Biotech     1.8%     6.0%  (11.3%)    Negative        Buy
Internet  (10.7%)  (14.8%) (19.2%)    Negative        Sell
Networking  0.4%     1.1%   (5.3%)    Neutral         Buy
Software    4.7%    (3.3%)  (7.2%)    Negative        Sell
Banking     1.6%     2.4%    4.5%     Positive        Buy
Retail      1.9%     2.6%    5.0%     Positive        Buy
Drugs       0.8%     4.0%   (2.6%)    Neutral         Sell

*****************************************************************


===============
Play-of-the-Day
===============

AmeriSource Health - AAS Close:$59.47 Change:+0.86 Stop:$56.50 NEW

Original Comments When Selected on July 26th:

Company Description:
The Chesterbrook, Pennsylvania-based firm is the holding company 
for AmeriSource Corp., the forth-largest distributor of 
pharmaceuticals and health care products in the US (McKesson HBOC 
is the largest). AmeriSource supplies hospitals, managed care 
facilities, drugstores, nursing homes, clinics, supermarkets, and 
mass merchandisers through nearly 25 distribution facilities. The 
company also offers a variety of value-added products to enhance its 
own profitability and bolster customer loyalty. These include the 
ECHO Suite, which is a software system for ordering and inventory 
management assistance; the Family Pharmacy program, which provides 
online shopping through familypharmacy.com and helps connect 
independent and small chain drug stores to various merchandising and 
other services; and Pharmacy Healthcare Solutions, which offers 
hospital consulting aimed at improving operational efficiency.  
The federal government, which includes the Veterans Administration,
 accounts for about 20-percent of sales.   

AmeriSource has announced that it is acquiring Bergen Brunswig, a 
major drug-distributor rival. The company created by the merger will 
be called AmeriSource-Bergen.  Pending regulatory approval (expected 
sometime this summer) the combined entity will have revenues in the 
vicinity of $35 billion.  Under the terms of the agreement, which 
has been unanimously approved by both Boards of Directors, each share 
of Bergen Brunswig common stock will be converted into 0.37 share of 
AmeriSource-Bergen common stock while each share of AmeriSource 
common stock will be converted into one share of AmeriSource-Bergen 
common stock. The new Company will have approximately 103 million 
shares outstanding, with current AmeriSource shareholders owning 
approximately 51-percent of the combined company and current Bergen 
Brunswig shareholders owning about 49-percent.

Fundamentals: 
Earnings projections have not been made for the combined entity.  
However, AAS Chairman David Yost said, " This combination of two 
strong, service-oriented companies boosts our confidence that we 
can achieve a long-term earnings per share growth objective of about 
20 percent."

As a separate entity AAS is expected to earn $2.27 per share on 
sales of $13.8 billion in the fiscal year ending in September 2001.
Last year, the company earned $1.89 on sales of  $11.6 billion.  

Bergan Brunswig (BBC) is expected to earn 80-cents per share on sales 
of $20.2 billion.  Last year, BBC earned 60-cents per share on sales 
of $22.8 billion.  

Why We Like It: 
The combination of these two companies ($34 billion in sales) should 
put it on a par with the industry giant McKesson HBOC (MCK $35.3 
billion in sales).  Investors evidently like the merger, since it 
was announced in March, AAS shares have climbed steadily from near 
$43.39.  To be fair, AAS shares have been on a solid winning streak 
since hitting $12.00 on March 14th of 2000.  

Wednesday saw the shares reverse a dip when the companies reported 
solid reports.  On Thursday, the shares built on the momentum and 
seem poised for the next leg up.  In the short-term, if the shares 
can push through $59 while maintaining strong volume (725k is daily 
average), then they are likely to make a run at resistance at $62.50 
and the longer-term upper trend line at about $65.00.  We suggest 
traders wait for this break of $59 before taking a position.  Solid 
support from a bearish reversal exists at $55.00, the 200-day moving 
average of $50.99 and the lower trend line at about $50.00.  We will 
start this Bullish play with a stop at $52.00.

Updated Comments:
Monday produced the break above $59 we were waiting for.  Volume 
was solid at 747k traded.  Our outlook remains the same.  We see a 
test of $62.50 and possibly $65.00.  We are tightening our stop to 
$56.60

Picked on July 26th at $57.50
Gain Since Picked        1.96
Earnings Date            7/25 (Confirmed)





==========
Watch List
==========
Wellpoint Health Network - WLP close: $105.50 change: +2.49

WHAT TO WATCH: This one has been stair stepping up since mid-May.  
After consolidating within a tight range for the last two weeks, 
Monday's strong move on rising volume suggests these shares are 
ready for the next leg up.  Watch for a solid volume move above 
$106 to provide bullish confirmation.



---

International Flavors & Fragrances - IFF close: $28.53 change: +0.69

WHAT TO WATCH: These shares closed Monday a hair above big time 
resistance at $28.00 to close just 2-cents short of setting a new 
52-week high.  However volume was lame at 201k shares traded (a 
normal day id 417k).  So we are uncertain if these shares can 
maintain their bullish momentum.  If they can, we have a bullish 
price target of $37.  Our bullish trigger will be a close above 
$29.00 and volume above 300k.



---

THQ Inc. - THQI close: $52.26 change: -2.63

WHAT TO WATCH: We are watching this video game publisher as a 
potential short.  We want to be careful; generally we are bullish 
on the games business with holidays and an advertising battle 
between Microsoft and Sony for dominance in the game console 
looming.  Still, the deteriorating technical picture for these 
shares gives us the impression they want to at least test support at 
$46 and possibly $40.  The jury is not in yet, although the shares 
dropped $2.63 on Monday, they did so on light volume of 433k traded, 
(average is 739k).  This could be a temporary respite after three 
consecutive gainers or the beginning of a bear mauling.  The price 
is right now, so the time to consider a short would be any kind of a
down day with a spike in volume.   






-------------------------
-- Continuing to Watch --
-------------------------

Some stocks on the Watch List will be carried over from one day
to the next if they continue to show potential but have not yet
breached the trigger point.  Some stocks have met our conditions 
for a trigger point but other factors hold us back from making it
a full-time stock pick.

-------------------------
Vitesse Semiconductor - VTSS - close: 19.62 change: +0.30

UPDATE: No change from Friday.

Friday, July 29th's write up:

WHAT TO WATCH: With semiconductors in the news lately and the
semi index making gains, traders are watching for stocks that 
have room to move.  VTSS has been very beat up and the stock
has been trying to pick its way higher after its recent low 
near $15 a couple of weeks ago.  Our potential trigger to
watch on VTSS is a strong close over $20.  If this is 
accomplished, watch for resistance at $22 and $24.




---

Micromuse - MUSE - close: 14.78 change: -0.31

UPDATE: This one could be slipping away.

Friday, July 29th's write up:

WHAT TO WATCH:  Talk about beat up, MUSE has been crushed along
with several other has-been high flyers.  This software solutions
company received a string of downgrades after warning that revenues
would drop in the current quarter and there was no relief until
March 2002.  It's possible investors feel there isn't any bad
news left to damage this company's prospects and the stock gained
over 11% in Friday's trading.  After spending two days bouncing
at $13 these hopeful investors might be right.  The stock has
resistance at $16 and again at the top of its gap at $17.50.
Watch for a close over $16 and let the stock fill the gap if we're
lucky it might be able to trade to $20 before pulling back.



---

Rite Aid - RAD - close: 8.97 change: -0/09

UPDATE: No change from Friday.

Friday, July 29th's write up:

WHAT TO WATCH: The retail drug store chain with 3800 stores has
seen a very strong move from its late December 2000 low of 1.50.
With a run like that it's no surprise to see the stock 
consolidating from its high of $10 last month.  The stock appears
to have finished retracing and has cleared resistance at $9.
Conservative traders may want to wait another day to confirm
the move but we are encouraged by the very high volume on Friday.
7.2 million shares traded versus the average 4.1 million.  
Depending on your time horizon, traders can play the short-term
move as it makes a run for $10 or wait for the stock to clear $10
and see how far it can go.




--- 

Cisco Systems Inc. - CSCO - close: 18.89 change: -0.17

UPDATE: The recent strength may be running out of steam, but its 
not dropped off our radar yet.
 
Thursday, July 26th's write up:

WHAT TO WATCH:  It seems that everyone is watching Cisco these 
days.  The stock has been unable to mount a serious comeback
after its recently failed rally from $14 to $24 (April/May).  
Traders should be watching for CSCO to close over resistance at 
$20.  Short-term players can probably play the 10% move to $22 
wherein lies the next level of serious resistance.  





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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 07-30-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/073001_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Split Trader
  Split Announcements: Pool Corp. - POOL
  New Plays: No new plays for ST
  Play Updates: See Play of Day - AmeriSource- AAS in section 1
  Closed Plays: No closed plays for ST

Net Bulls
  New Plays: No new NB Plays
  Play Updates: Stop updated for RF Micro Devices (RFMD)
  Closed Plays: InterCept Group - ICPT

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: Professional Detailing - PDII (Bearish)
  Play Updates: Stops updated
  Closed Plays: Anadarko Petroleum - APC


=================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

===================
Split Announcements
===================
POOL shares have no problem swimming upstream

The Board of Directors of SCP Pool Corp. (Nasdaq:POOL) announced 
a 3-for-2 split of its common stock.  The additional shares will 
be distributed on September 7, 2001 and the stock is expected to 
trade on a split-adjusted basis on September 10, 2001. The 
resultant outstanding shares will total 25.7 million. 

Chairman of the Board, stated, "This marks the fourth stock 
split since SCP's initial public offering in October 1995. We are 
gratified that the Company's continued growth has enabled the 
Board to declare another stock split." The three prior splits 
were announced when trading was at $25 - $35.

After breaking out of a long-term channel in 1999, shares have 
almost quadrupled in price. The 52-week range runs from $22.75 to 
$39.50. Today, POOL closed down -0.04 to $38.56 on light volume 
of 24 thousand shares; the 3-month average volume is 132,500. 

About the Company:

SCP Pool Corporation is the largest distributor of swimming pool 
supplies and related products. Through 164 service centers in the 
United States and Europe, the Company distributes more than 
60,000 national brand and private label products to over 38,000 
customers. 




===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  Split Candidate Updates
  -----------------------

See Play of Day  - AmeriSource - AAS in section 1


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================


===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------------

Change stop for RF Micro Devices (RFMD) from $25.00 to $26.50


===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  -----------------
  Closed Long Play
  -----------------

The InterCept Group - ICPT - close: 33.50 change: -1.50

Our initial play write-up cautioned to wait for a break above $36 
before going long and we hope you took the warning to heart. The 
stock tripped our tight stop of $33.75 on Monday and continued down 
to close the day at $33.50. Low volume will probably keep ICPT 
trapped in its current range for a while.
 
Picked on July 27th @ $35.00
Gain since picked:     -1.25 
Earnings Date:          7/25  (not confirmed)


==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  ---------------
  New Short Plays
  ---------------

Professional Detailing - PDII Close:$63.12 Change:-1.58 Stop:$68.00

Company Description:
Professional Detailing, Inc. provides customized product detailing 
programs and other marketing and promotional services to the 
United States pharmaceutical industry.  This allows pharmaceutical 
firms to focus on drug development rather than sales and marketing. 

Fundamentals: 
For the 3 months ended 3/31/01, revenues totaled $173.1M, up from 
$71.3M. Net income rose 95% to $10.9M. Revenues reflect the recording 
of product sales of Ceftin for the first time. Earnings were 
partially offset by higher facilities expansion and field selling 
expenses.

For the 2001 fiscal year the company's net income is 
expected to increase 22-percent.  Analysts project company 
earnings to rise from $2.40 in 2001 to $3.14 in 2002.  This 
gives PDII shares a low current P/E of 29 and a forward 2001 P/E of 22.

Why We Like It: 
This former profitable Bearish selection earned its way back on 
the short list when it produced a downside break of support at 
$65.00.  The stock had been hugging this level for the last six 
trading sessions. This follows a drop from $90.70 reached at the 
end of June.  The culprit is contract cancellations including one 
from Pfizer, which was responsible for 5-percent of revenue.  A 
Point and Figure analysis suggests a bearish target objective of 
$55 with the possibility of a meltdown to $48.00.  We will watch 
as it approaches support at $60.  However, rising selling momentum 
appears sufficient to punch through.  Protection from a surprise 
Bullish reversal exists between $65.00 and $67.00.  We will start 
this play with a stop at just above this level at $68.00.


Picked on July 30th at $63.12
Earnings Date            N/A (Not Confirmed)




===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Long Play Updates
  -----------------

Updated stops:
  GBC Bancorp (GBCB) from $28.50 to $29.50
  RailAmerica (RAIL) from $11.50 to $12.00


===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  ----------------
  Closed Long Play
  ----------------

Anadarko Petroleum - APC Close:$57.80 Change:-0.76 Stop:$57.50
 
We enjoyed a very lucrative run with Anadarko last week and 
are pleased to take our six point gains off the table. The 
stock had begun to run out of gas on Friday so our stops 
were tightened, but the downgrade by First Union was the 
final kicker to end this run-up.

Picked on July 20th at $51.50
Gain since picked:      +6.00
Earnings Date            7/26 (not confirmed)


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to remove@PremierInvestor.net
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact advertising@PremierInvestor.net.

*****************************************************************


Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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