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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 07/31/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Tuesday 07-31-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap: Consumer And Investor Confidence Is Shaky
Market Sentiment: Goodbye July
Play-of-the-Day: Ebay - More Up Than Down 
Watch List: Range Bound?  Not these Stocks.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       7-31-2001          High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10522.81 +121.09 10595.05 10402.97 1.13 bln   1893/1221	
NASDAQ   2027.12 +  9.28  2057.10  2014.06 1.58 bln   1935/1813
S&P 100   622.16 +  3.27   628.90   618.89   Totals   3828/3034
S&P 500  1211.23 +  6.71  1222.74  1205.32             
RUS 2000  484.78 +  0.07   489.15   483.07 
DJ TRANS 2906.18 -  6.04  2924.63  2891.92 
VIX        23.87 -  0.16    25.02    23.43 
Put/Call Ratio      0.60
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Consumer And Investor Confidence Is Shaky by Jeff Bailey

Today's consumer confidence number shows a consumer that is 
relatively uncertain about the future.  This morning's reading of 
116.5 was less than the 117.5 level many economists were 
expecting and also below June's upwardly revised number of 118.9 
(previously reported at 117.9).  In February, consumer confidence 
had reached its lowest point since 1996, when confidence sunk to 
a level of 109.2.  Director of the Conference Board, Lynn Franco 
said, "The moderate decline in confidence signals slow economic 
growth ahead."

Much of the lower confidence numbers looks to be coming from 
consumer's worrying about the potential for job growth.  The 
index that measures expectations for job growth fell to 14.9 from 
15.6.  This index had been showing gains for the past three 
months, but today's data seems to show the consumer having second 
thoughts.  The lack of confidence didn't keep Americans from 
spending though (ah, the American way of life) as spending rose 
0.4%, which outpaced the 0.3% rise in incomes.

While spending more than you'd expect to make doesn't make a lot 
of sense, this morning's higher stock prices had many market 
participants scratching their heads wondering what was going on.  
The only reason I could come up with was that the market just 
lacked enough aggressive sellers and was waiting for a level 
where risk/reward on the short-term basis became unfavorable for 
holding stocks and where bears could establish some shorts and 
have some downside.  I think we got this at the 200-period MA on 
the 60-minute chart in the QQQ.

NASDAQ-100 Trust (QQQ) - 60-minute interval



Today's broader market rally lacked volume and you can really see 
that in the QQQ.  The initial upward move came on volume, but 
after two hours of trading, volume really dried up.  The 
correlation of past events and outcome of this index rallying to 
its 200-pd MA on the above chart and today's light volume surely 
had some short-term bears initiating trades near the 200-pd MA.  
Once an hourly low was broken to the downside at $42.50, volume 
began picking up, but this time is was on the downward move.

When the consumer confidence numbers were released, I remember 
looking at the Nasdaq-100 Trust (QQQ) as it was trading lower by 
about 0.5% at $41.75.  The immediate "belief" was that the 
numbers were bad, but within 2-hours, the QQQ had shot to a 
session high of 42.78.  The only resistance I found in our charts 
was the 200-pd MA on the 60-minute chart.  I'd point out that 
this time frame chart also shows this moving average coming into 
play from the bearish side back on June 13th.  At that time, the 
QQQ was trading at the 44.25 level and several days later the QQQ 
was trading near 41.00.  While 3.25 doesn't seem like a lot, that 
is a 7% decline and represented an attractive gain for a bearish 
trader.

I followed the QQQ rather closely today and eventually the 
NASDAQ-100 Trust (QQQ) and broader NASDAQ Composite ($COMPX) did 
see selling take hold into the close of trading.  I noticed that 
shares of Qualcomm (QCOM) were trading in the red for most of the 
session and that another large component, Oracle (ORCL), also 
showed quite a bit of weakness.  These are two big stocks that 
carry a lot of weight in the NASDAQ-100 and their lack of 
participation and trading against the broader NASDAQ trend is of 
concern.

Oracle Chart - last six months



It's very tough to judge risk/reward for an upside move in shares 
of Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) as the stock looks stuck in no mans land.  
In an uncertain market environment like we're in right now, these 
types of technicals are often avoided by bullish traders as first 
support is down at $17.59 and risk/reward is 50/50 at best.  I 
think some bearish traders used that to their advantage today 
when the QQQ got stuck at its 200-pd moving average.

What continues to trouble me about any type of prolonged rally 
right now for stocks is shown in tonight market sentiment data.  
Jeff Canavan talks about June inflows into mutual funds.  For 
June, inflows amounted to a measly $10.6 billion, which is well 
below May's inflows of $18.1 billion.  With treasury bond YIELDS 
continuing to fall, this has me thinking that most of the $10.6 
billion was slated for bond funds.  Today, right at the close of 
the bond market (03:00 EST) we saw the 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) 
trade the 5.502% level, which violates the most recent relative 
low of 5.504% found on July 20th.  We've now seen the 5-year 
YIELD ($FVX.X), 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) and 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) 
all break recent relative lows in the past three sessions.  With 
very little money coming into the market, and bond YIELDS 
continuing to fall, my past observations tell me that stock will 
eventually suffer the consequences and follow bond YIELDS lower.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Goodbye July by Jeffrey Canavan

And so we end another month of trading.  When we add up the 
numbers, the Dow gained .002%, the S&P 500 lost 1.1%, and the 
Nasdaq finished 6.2% lower.  This is the fourth straight year the 
Nasdaq finished the month of July lower.

So what will August hold?  Based purely on the numbers since 
1950, August is the second worst month of the year for the Dow 
and S&P 500, with September being the worst.  Over the past ten 
years, the Dow has closed the month of August higher 6 times, 
with the best gain being 6.6%.  The Dow has only closed lower 4 
times, but the biggest loss was 15.1%.  When we average it out, 
the Dow lost an average 1.1% in August over the past ten years. 

The Nasdaq faired a little better over the past ten years, 
closing higher seven times and lower 3 times, for an average gain 
of 1.4%.  Last year the Nasdaq gained 11.8%, but lost 19.8% in 
1998.

But enough about history, what about the future?  Early in the 
day it looked like the major indices were poised to crash through 
resistance, but the fade into the close doesn't bode well for the 
first day of August.  We have a lot of overhead resistance to 
deal with, and it may take several attempts to break it all.

Based on the latest data from the Investment Company Institute, 
we are going to need some more fuel to crack those levels.  After 
contributing $18.1 billion into stock funds in May, investors 
only placed $10.6 billion into stock funds in June.  That 
compares to levels well over $30 billion in early 2000, and is a 
decline for the second straight month.  Basically, investors on 
the sideline are still hesitant about getting back in the game. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility
The VIX has dropped for 5 straight days, which hints that bullish 
traders are starting to get a little complacent.
 
VIX   23.87
VXN   48.35

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total           .60        608,410       363,358
Equity Only     .51        541,676       274,615
OEX            1.18         13,638        16,135
QQQ             .27         84,181        23,007

3 of the 4 put/call ratios also hint at bullish complacency, but 
not enough to signal a turning point.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

The Nasdaq-100 has reversed into bull alert status.

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          34       -      Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    38       -      Bull Alert
DOW           36       -      Bull Alert
S&P 500       48       -      Bear Alert  

Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 
30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

10-Day Arms Index  1.15  

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1897           1216
NASDAQ    1928           1819

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      152             24
NASDAQ    156            100

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Advisory Sentiment 

Bullish  Bearish  Correction   Net   Change 
  52.6%    23.7%     23.7%    28.9%   -0.4%

A bearish reading of 25% to 30%, combined with a bullish reading 
greater than 55% is typically considered bearish by contrairians.  
A net percentage greater than 30% is also viewed as bearish. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/24/01
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500
The three-week reduction in the net bearish position of 
commercials came to an end. This wasn't the result of new short 
positions being added, but rather more long positions being 
dropped than short positions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
7/10/01      309,374   385,178   (75,804)   (10.91%)
7/17/01      336,836   403,561   (66,725)   ( 9.01%)
7/27/01      317,241   392,146   (74,905)   (10.56%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 41,144) - 5/1/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
7/10/01      135,587     59,889   75,698     38.72%
7/17/01      122,525     50,211   72,314     41.86%
7/24/01      141,372     61,665   79,717     39.26%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01
 
NASDAQ-100
The net bearish position of institutions has increased for the 
third week in a row.  (11,802) is the third highest bearish 
reading of the year. 

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
7/10/01       26,688     34,640   ( 7,952)  (12.97%)
7/17/01       26,721     37,225   (10,504)  (16.43%)
7/24/01       27,396     39,198   (11,802)  (17.72%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
7/10/01        9,073     7,486    1,587       9.58%
7/17/01       11,680     8,183    3,497      17.61% 
7/24/01       12,170     7,744    4,426      22.23%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01


DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Institutions added a few more long positions, increasing their 
net bullish stance on the Dow.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
7/10/01       13,743    12,999      744      2.8%
7/17/01       14,145    12,963    1,182      4.4%
7/24/01       16,080    12,812    3,268     11.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
7/10/01        5,048     7,835    (2,787)   (21.63%)
7/17/01        5,255     9,144    (3,889)   (27.01%)
7/24/01        5,599     9,526    (3,927)   (25.96%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01
----------------------------------------------------------------- 


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

Ebay - EBAY Close: $62.57 Change: +1.53 Stop: $59.50

Company Profile:
eBay Inc. has developed a Web-based community in which buyers and 
sellers are brought together in an auction format to buy and sell 
items such as antiques, coins, collectibles, computers, 
memorabilia, stamps and toys. For the 3 months ended 3/31/01, 
revenues rose 79% to $154.1M. Net income totaled $21.1M, up from 
$1.8M. Results reflect an increased number of registered users, 
higher gross merchandise sales and improved operating margins.

Fundamentals:
For the 2001 fiscal year the company's net income is estimated to 
increase 114-percent, while it is anticipated that 2002 net income 
will rise by 60-percent.  Analysts expect company earnings to rise 
from $0.45 in 2001 to $0.72 in 2002.  The forward 2001 P/E is 139 
and the 2002 P/E is 87.

Why We Like It:
After reaching a near term high of $71.30 in the middle of June, 
shares of EBAY took a well deserved breather, retracing recent 
gains back down to support at $60.00.  The consolidation phase 
that the stock has seen this month has dragged shares under the 20 
and 50 DMAs and could represent a strong opportunity for investors 
at current levels.  Perusing through technical indicators, 
Stochastics show that EBAY is in what could be a profitable 
trading range.  With MACD sitting at the break even line and 
support being reinforced over the last two weeks, all that remains 
is a catalyst to remind buyers.  Tonight's better than expected 
earnings announcement from PCLN could provide the needed impetus 
in trading tomorrow.

We like EBAY at current levels and are especially pleased with 
recent volume trends.  If buyers return to the tech markets in the 
month of August, the blue chip types are likely to be some of the 
strongest beneficiaries.  Bearing this in mind, as well as the 
strong support we see at $60.00, we'll place our stop at $59.50.  
Short-term traders might wish to wait for a minor pullback, but 
resistance probably won't arrive until shares clear $65.00.  It is 
at this approximate level that a short-term exit would be most 
favorable.  However, the longer-term investor may wish to hold on 
until the next level of resistance at $69.00 or longer until the 
recent high of $71.30 is reached.  Either way, do remember to 
protect the downside with a stop at $59.50.

Picked on July 31st at $62.57
Earnings Date           10/18 (Unconfirmed)





==========
Watch List
==========

Johnson and Johnson - JNJ - close: 54.10 change: +1.18

WHAT TO WATCH:  We've mentioned it before...drug stocks are one
of the few sectors where most of the companies are meeting or 
beating earnings expectations and confirming guidance going forward.
Shares of JNJ may be done consolidating after building on recent
lows near $52.  Traders can watch for the breakout over $55 as
a trigger for a potential long play.




---

Barnes & Noble - BKS - close: 39.20 change: +1.18

WHAT TO WATCH:  Barnesandnoble.com (NASDAQ:BNBN) turned in a 
a narrower expected loss with improving gross margins.  This has 
brought new attention to majority shareholder Barnes & Noble 
(NYSE: BKS).  Surprisingly, even news that BKS CEO Leonard Riggio 
has plans to sell 470K shares this week has not deterred the new 
bullish surge in the BKS stock.  Depending on your aggressiveness, 
traders can watch for a close over $40 or wait for a close over 
$41 which is true resistance for BKS (or very aggressive traders 
can jump in now and ride the climb up).




---

Perrigo Co. - PRGO - close: 16.57 change: +0.87

WHAT TO WATCH:  Our Watch List feature is not designed to produce 
in-depth reports on what moves a company or its fundamentals.
Thus, with a quick glance at the news, we can't find what drove 
shares of PRGO up over 5.5% today.  Volume was double the norm
but not knowing what the catalyst was for the move is a big caution 
flag.  Today's trading was a clear breakout over resistance at 
$16 but higher resistance at $17 remained intact.  If this stock
interests you look for a pullback and a bounce off of $16 or a
strong close over $17 as a potential trigger to go long.  The
stock price has had a nice run up since mid-April which might
tempt you to do a little investigating.




---

Nokia Corp - NOK - close: 21.81 change: +0.18

WHAT TO WATCH: NOK has been on and off the watch list for a 
few weeks.  The stock has been climbing and it has made it
past resistance at 21.50.  Now bulls are going to have to work
through potential selling between $22-$22.50.  There is usually
news on NOK and the latest is a milestone step forward in the 
GSM networks for the 3 generation phones and service.




---

CVS Corp. - CVS - close: 36.01 change: -0.71

WHAT TO WATCH: Oversold?  You betcha but shares don't show any
signs of stopping their decline.  Last week CVS mistakenly 
told an institutional investor that their 2002 earnings were
going to be lower than originally expected.  Because this was
material news, CVS is obligated to share this with all investors
both big and small.  They quickly moved to rectify the situation
and published a press release to all investors about their future
earnings expectations.  Their stock price has crumbled from $40 
down to support at $36 on heavy volume.  If the decline continues
a potential trigger to short would be a close under $36.  You 
will want to trade with stops as the stock is way oversold and
is in need of a relief rally even if the trend remains down.
The company announced their earnings for the quarter today
but the news failed to offer any strength to the stock price.




---

EOG Resources - EOG - close: 35.35 change: -0.05

WHAT TO WATCH:  A common dilemma for investors lately has been 
the energy group.  Higher energy prices earlier in the year have
most companies producing great earnings reports but shares have
been trending down for weeks.  Shouldn't it be the other way
around?  The recent downturn in energy prices has analyst concerned
that earnings will not be as robust in the coming quarters.
EOG has shown a nice rally from earlier lows near $31 but the
run could be over.  If shares breakdown below $35, they could
return to $31 or lower.  Watch for some support at $34 which
was formed on the 26th and 27th of July.





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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 07-31-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/2859_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Split Trader
  Split Announcements: Microsemi - MSCC
  New Play: Tenet Healthcare - THC (Bullish)
  Play Updates: BMET, ATK, AAS
  Closed Plays: No closed Split Trader Plays

Net Bulls
  New Plays: Ebay - EBAY (Bullish)
  Bullish Play Updates: AHAA, RFMD, EMC
  Closed Plays: No closed NetBulls plays

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: Transocean Sedco Forex - RIG (Bearish) 
  Bullish Play Updates: GBCB, NKE, RAIL
  Bearish Play Updates: PDII


=================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

===================
Split Announcements
===================

Microsemi Gets the Go Ahead for Stock Split

Microsemi Corporation (Nasdaq:MSCC) announced today that its 
shareholders have approved an amendment to increase the company's 
authorized shares from 20 million to 100 million. The proposal to 
execute a 2:1 split was originally declared on May 11, 2001 but 
was contingent upon receiving the necessary votes at today's 
shareholder meeting. The 100 percent stock dividend is payable 
August 28 and the stock will trade on a split-adjusted basis on 
August 29.

 


============
ST New Plays
============

  -------------------------
  New Split Candidate Play
  -------------------------

Tenet Healthcare - THC Close:$55.51 Change:+1.42 Stop:$53.00 

Company Description:
This is one of the largest hospital chains in the US. Tenet owns 
or operates about 110 hospitals in 17 states, as well as one in 
Barcelona, Spain.  In addition, subsidiaries own or operate 
clinics, HMOs, a PPO, home health care programs, a managed care 
insurance company, outpatient surgery centers, and rehabilitation 
and specialty hospitals.  In response to decreased Medicare 
funding (more than 30% of Tenet's revenues), the company is 
closing its medical practice management business and is divesting 
facilities to cut costs.  Tenet has formed a joint venture with 
Ventro to sell medical supplies to health care providers on the 
Internet

Fundamentals: 
Analysts forecast the company will earn $2.74 per share in the 
current fiscal year ending May 2002 and $3.22 in 2003.  They 
project revenue of $13 billion for 2002.  In the fiscal year ended 
May 2001 the company earned $2.30 on sales of $12.1 billion.   The 
shares have a current P/E of 24 and a forward one of 20.  These 
are inline with the industry average P/E of 22.  The company has a 
forward earnings growth rate of 19-percent, well ahead of the 
industry average rate of 14-percent.

Why We Like It: 
Tenet Healthcare shares have been on a long-term bullish trend 
extending from February 2000.  For most of July the shares have 
been consolidating in the $54 to $56 range.  A strong performance 
on Tuesday with solid volume and strength in the healthcare sector 
suggests the shares may be ready for the next leg up.  We see a 
short-term price objective of $59 and an intermediate one of $65.  
A good entry point would be following a break of $56.50 on volume 
in excess of 2 million shares.  We will start this play with a 
stop at $53.00.

Picked on July 31st at $55.51
Earnings Date           07/11 (Confirmed)





===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Split Run Updates
  -----------------

Biomet Inc. - BMET - close: 48.55 change: +0.12 stop: 46.50 *new*

Surprise, surprise, USB Piper Jaffray, who makes a market in
BMET, chose to downgrade the stock from a Strong Buy to a Buy
on valuation concerns.  Strangely enough, their analyst did
not lower their current price target of $53 on the stock.
While this is frustrating for us this dip back to $48 may be
an opportunity for latecomers to the play.  If a downgrade
can only knock it down a couple of bucks then there may be
a lack of real sellers.  Everyone could be holding on for its
stock split next week.  We're going to notch our stop up a 
dollar to $46.50 just to be on the safe side.

Picked on July 25th @ $48.83
Gain since picked:    - 0.28 
Earnings Date:        N/A    (not confirmed)





  -----------------------
  Split Candidate Updates
  -----------------------

Alliant Tech - ATK - close: 99.20 change: +0.30 stop: 97.50 *new*

This is it!  ATK is at the make it or break it point.  The stock
has been incredibly strong and bulls should be excited that we
actually saw greater than average volume yesterday when it 
appeared to put in a tight bottom at $98.  Obviously, the stock 
is very extended so we've decided to raise our stop to $97.50 to 
protect the play's current gains.  Remember that $100-$101 is the 
resistance that shares need to breakthrough.  New players should 
wait for that breakout.  We're encouraged that even though the 
stock price fell back from its intraday high of 100.20 today it 
held its intraday low of 99.00 in the afternoon dip.

Picked on July 24th @ $ 95.44
Gain since picked:    +  3.76
Earnings Date:        8/08/01 (confirmed)




---

AmeriSource - AAS - close: 58.14 change: -1.33 stop: 56.50 *new*

The Drug sector was on quite a roll today adding over 2% to the 
DRG.X index.  So why didn't AAS participate?  It's possible that
investors we're not pleased by the announcement of AAS and 
Bergen's decision to offer $400 million in new debt once their
merger is completed at the end of August.  Today's move solidifies
resistance at the $60 mark as the next major hurdle for the stock
price.  Normally, we wouldn't be too concerned but the DRG has 
been climbing for five days in a row.  Today's big move would have
been higher but the DRG's advance wilted under the shadow of
its 200-dma looming overhead at 405.  If the drug sector is due
to consolidate for a couple of days we don't want AAS to retrace
to far on us.  We're going to protect ourselves and move our stop
up to $56.50.

Picked on July 26th @ $ 57.50
Gain since picked:    +  0.64
Earnings Date:        7/25/01 





==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  --------------
  New Long Play
  --------------

Ebay - EBAY Close: $62.57 Change: +1.53 Stop: $59.50

Company Profile:
eBay Inc. has developed a Web-based community in which buyers and 
sellers are brought together in an auction format to buy and sell 
items such as antiques, coins, collectibles, computers, 
memorabilia, stamps and toys. For the 3 months ended 3/31/01, 
revenues rose 79% to $154.1M. Net income totaled $21.1M, up from 
$1.8M. Results reflect an increased number of registered users, 
higher gross merchandise sales and improved operating margins.

Fundamentals:
For the 2001 fiscal year the company's net income is estimated to 
increase 114-percent, while it is anticipated that 2002 net income 
will rise by 60-percent.  Analysts expect company earnings to rise 
from $0.45 in 2001 to $0.72 in 2002.  The forward 2001 P/E is 139 
and the 2002 P/E is 87.

Why We Like It:
After reaching a near term high of $71.30 in the middle of June, 
shares of EBAY took a well deserved breather, retracing recent 
gains back down to support at $60.00.  The consolidation phase 
that the stock has seen this month has dragged shares under the 20 
and 50 DMAs and could represent a strong opportunity for investors 
at current levels.  Perusing through technical indicators, 
Stochastics show that EBAY is in what could be a profitable 
trading range.  With MACD sitting at the break even line and 
support being reinforced over the last two weeks, all that remains 
is a catalyst to remind buyers.  Tonight's better than expected 
earnings announcement from PCLN could provide the needed impetus 
in trading tomorrow.

We like EBAY at current levels and are especially pleased with 
recent volume trends.  If buyers return to the tech markets in the 
month of August, the blue chip types are likely to be some of the 
strongest beneficiaries.  Bearing this in mind, as well as the 
strong support we see at $60.00, we'll place our stop at $59.50.  
Short-term traders might wish to wait for a minor pullback, but 
resistance probably won't arrive until shares clear $65.00.  It is 
at this approximate level that a short-term exit would be most 
favorable.  However, the longer-term investor may wish to hold on 
until the next level of resistance at $69.00 or longer until the 
recent high of $71.30 is reached.  Either way, do remember to 
protect the downside with a stop at $59.50.

Picked on July 31st at $62.57
Earnings Date           10/18 (Unconfirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------------

Alpha Ind. - AHAA - close: 38.12 change: +0.92 stop: 35.50 *new*

Right on the money!  Friday we discussed how AHAA would likely
continue to pullback before continuing its uptrend.  We also 
mentioned how a bounce between $36 and $37 could be the ticket
for a new entry point.  This is exactly what we have seen so
far this week.  The stock has consolidated from its recent high
near $40, shares saw a little profit taking and now buyers are
stepping back in.  Today's move up was on stronger than average
volume which is what you want to see.  We're going to raise our
stop to $35.50.  More conservative traders not wanting to risk
this much or new readers to this play may want to consider a 
tight stop at 36.50 which is just under today's low.  Next big
resistance is $40 but we might see shares stall a little at
$39.  

Picked on July 24th @ $36.00
Gain since picked:    + 2.12
Earnings Date:         10/17 (not confirmed)




---

RF Micro Dev - RFMD - close: 27.36 change: -1.04 stop: 26.50 *new*

Readers were again alerted on Friday that shares of RFMD would 
likely pullback from last week's gains.  The stock price has 
retraced enough to fill the gap we saw Thur/Fri and our next 
level to watch will be $26-$27.  The stock has been consolidating
on declining volume but we need to see it find support and firm
or bounce upwards again.  If we had to make a guess, we'd look
for the bounce or reversal tomorrow between $26.50 and $27.
The semiconductor sector has not done much the past two days and
today's trading on the SOX indicates a doji candlestick.  This 
could be signaling that the group is tired and needs to pullback
some more.  If the SOX falls too fast, RFMD could easily hit $25.
If RFMD breaks $25 then short-term bulls are in trouble.  We will
move our stop up to 26.50 to protect our capital and risk getting 
swung out on a wild intraday dip.

Picked on July 26th @ $27.79
Gain since picked:    - 0.43
Earnings Date:         07/17 




---

E M C Corp. - EMC - close: 19.72 change: +0.19 stop: 18.50

No love for the big boys.  Monday and Tuesday have not produced
much that the tech bulls can gloat over.  EMC is no exception.
With the NASDAQ moving sideways, shares of EMC are doing the same
except EMC has slipped below resistance at $20 again.  New 
readers to this play should wait for shares to close strongly
over $20 before considering a new long play.  We're going to 
keep our stop at 18.50 but if you're concerned you might be able
to get away with a stop just under 19.25 which appears to be 
the intraday bottom for the last two days.

Picked on July 27th @ $20.01
Gain since picked:    - 0.29
Earnings Date:         07/18 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  ---------------
  New Short Play
  ---------------

Transocean Sedco Forex - RIG Close:$32.29 Change:-4.14 Stop:$36.50

Company Description:
This Houston, Texas-based firm is one of the world's largest 
offshore drilling contractors specializing in deepwater drilling. 
The company has over 170 mobile offshore drilling units and a 
fleet which includes 50 semisubmersibles, 58 jackup rigs, and 16 
drillships operating in the world's major offshore oil-producing 
regions. Transocean Sedco Forex also provides well management 
services. The company was formed in 1999 when Transocean Offshore 
merged with Sedco Forex, which had been spun off from 
Schlumberger. It has expanded with the acquisition of competitor 
R&B Falcon.

Fundamentals: 

On Tuesday the company reported strong quarterly earnings but 
warned that that it expects full-year earnings for 2001 and 2002 
to fall short of analysts' estimates.  The company blamed a recent 
downturn in Gulf of Mexico drilling activity and slow recovery 
elsewhere.  "Many of your forecasts are simply too aggressive on 
how fast all this is going to happen," CEO Michael Talbert told 
analysts during the conference call.  In a statement he said, 
"Although additional exploration and production dollars could be 
forthcoming, we are at present witnessing reduced customer 
spending," he added,  "This development is causing utilization and 
day rates for shallow water drilling rigs to decline."  Talbert 
gave guidance that he believes earnings will be at the bottom of 
First Call estimates.  Those estimates call for 2001 earnings from 
$1.02 to $1.50 per share (consensus is $1.28) and the 2002 range 
to be from $2.17 to $3.40 (consensus is $2.91). 

Why We Like It: 
Even at the current consensus estimates RIG shares are expensive. 
They give the company a forward 2001 P/E of 25 as compared to the 
industry average of 14.  Keep in mind; this consensus estimate is 
going to drop as the 26 analysts covering the company revise their 
estimates downward over the next few days.  This should keep solid 
selling pressure on the shares.  Look for a test of the $27.50 to 
$24.00 support range. Given the shares sharp drop on Tuesday, wait 
for a bargain hunter's bounce to present a more advantageous entry 
point.  We will start this play with a stop at $36.50.

Picked on July 31st at $32.29
Earnings Date           07/31 (Confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Long Play Updates
  -----------------

GBC Bancorp GBCB Close:$33.37 Gain:+0.90 Stop:$32.40 NEW 

GBC Bancorp kept its momentum streak alive today, gaining another 
90 cents today.  Light volume has me questioning this stocks 
ability to keep the drive alive, but nevertheless, GBCB took out 
another resistance level at $32.50.  We will place our new stop 
just below this level at $32.40.

Picked on July 27th at $31.10
Gain since picked:      +2.27
Earnings Date            N/A




===

Nike NKE Close:$47.55 Gain:+1.45 Stop:$44.00

Nike finally got a little spring in its step, gaining $1.45, which 
stops a two-day mini skid.  Nike was one of the few stocks that did 
give back most of its gains, and closed near its high.  Resistance 
around $48 must be cleared before this stock can jump higher.

Picked on July 14th at $47.84
Gain since picked:      -0.29
Earnings Date            N/A




===

RailAmerica RAIL Close:$13.02 Gain:-0.19 Stop:$12.00

RailAmerica bucked the trend today of rallying early, and selling 
off late.  Instead this stock sold off early, and rallied into the 
close. RAIL had dipped as low as $12.50, but climbed back above 
support at $13.00. 

Picked on July 14th at $11.41
Gain since picked:      +1.61
Earnings Date            N/A





  ------------------
  Short Play Updates
  ------------------

Professional Detailing PDII Close:$64.50 Gain:+1.38 Stop:$68.00

Professional Detailing mounted a small one-day rally, but failed 
to take out Monday's high.  The stock did set a lower low for the 
third straight day, and resistance at $67.75 hasn't been touched 
in six days.

Picked on July 20th at $63.12
Gain since picked:      -1.38
Earnings Date            N/A





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