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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 08/09/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Thursday 08-09-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap: Market's uncertain regarding stem cell stocks
Market Sentiment: To Hold or Not to Hold 
Play-of-the-Day: Chevron Corp. - CHV
Watch List: Innie, Minnie, Miney, Moe.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       8-9-2001          High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10298.56 +  5.06 10312.19 10205.56 1.10 bln   1725/1358	
NASDAQ   1963.32 -  3.04  1971.61  1941.24 1.43 bln   1680/1985
S&P 100   607.83 +  0.30   608.74   602.76   Totals   3405/3343
S&P 500  1183.43 -  0.10  1184.71  1174.68             
RUS 2000  474.17 +  1.55   474.17   469.50 
DJ TRANS 2834.63 - 47.41  2885.96  2830.64 
VIX        23.64 -  0.72    25.01    23.42 
Put/Call Ratio      0.76
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Market's uncertain regarding stem cell stocks by Jeff Bailey

Shares of publicly traded stocks involved with stem cell research 
found buyers ahead of President Bush's scheduled announcement on 
whether he will allow federal funding for the controversial, yet 
promising research.  Shares of StemCells Inc. (NASDAQ:STEM) 
jumped 36% to close at $6.45, while shares of Aastrom Biosciences 
(NASDAQ:ASTM) surged 26% to close at $2.25 and Geron 
(NASDAQ:GERN) vaulted higher by 15% to $14.94.  

While today's gains are impressive impressive, the charts of 
these three stocks indicate that uncertainty does exist.  After 
you look at their financial statements, you certainly see why 
these stocks are traded purely based on the promises that stem 
cell research may provide.

When traders or investors begin thinking of where to place their 
bets on such a speculative venture, what's the best way to place 
your bet?  Unless you are well read on the topic or you're a 
biologist that understands this research it would be tough to 
make an educated bet on which company (if any of these three) 
will be the winner.  If however we feel that the MARKET is all 
knowing, then perhaps there's something in the charts that might 
lead us down the path of stem cell prosperity.

Geron Corporation - $1 and $0.50 box



I'm not playing favorites, but I did glance at the financials of 
the three companies mentioned above.  Geron Corporation (GERN) 
reported revenues of $1.8 million for the three months ended 
March 31, 2001 (most revenue of the three) and approximately 108 
institutions own 19% of the stock's float. (STEM 26 inst. 7% of 
float, ASTM 25 inst. 5% of float).  I'm guessing that the some of 
the institutions that own these stocks have analysts with 
biomedical backgrounds that understand the technology much better 
than I do.

A betting trader might want to try and stack as many odds in his 
favor as possible if he is going to speculate and a very brief 
process of elimination does show this company with the largest 
base of revenue (they lost $7.4 million on the bottom line for 
quarter ending 03/31/01).  Next closest was Aastrom Biosciences 
with quarterly revenue of $653 million.

Institutional sponsorship is also greater for Geron (GERN) by a 
rather wide margin.  To me, the appearance of greater 
institutional sponsorship at least give some resemblance of 
interest.  If things work out for the company and President 
Bush's decision is favorable for further stem cell funding, then 
I at least have the feeling there are approximately 108 
institutions that are familiar with the company and its stem cell 
process.

Thinking of shorting a biotech?

Think again please.  While some biotech stocks may not be around 
a year from now and sometimes their research seems far-fetched.  
A trader is wise to play the bearish side ONLY with options.  A 
friend of mine was very well informed regarding solid tumor 
therapies being developed by several young biotechnology 
companies.  He "knew" that the company he was buying stock in had 
the "blockbuster" treatment that would cure solid tumor cancer.  
He also "knew" that a company by the name of EntreMed Inc. 
(NASDAQ:ENMD) and their solid tumor treatment didn't hold a 
candle to the competition.  While my friend "knew" all of this, 
the market felt differently about his knowledge.

EntreMed, Inc. Chart - December 1999-January 2000




While some traders and investors "knew" that EntreMed's 
treatments and trials were suspect, the market sure seemed to 
think differently.  My education and thoughts on shorting 
biotechs didn't begin just recently (December 2000).  No, my 
beliefs were founded long ago, but EntreMed's stock price action 
over time has at least warned me of the danger.  If you're 
thinking that "this only happens to the other guy" please 
reconsider.  I love to short stocks, but I'll leave the shorting 
of biotech stocks to those with very deep pockets.  If you think 
a run from $34 to $69 is bad, then look at the chart below.  

EntreMed Inc. Chart - Spring of 1998



This was my first observation on an up close view of what can 
happen when a trader is short a biotech stock.  In my years of 
trading, I had never witnessed anything like it.  My friend (even 
before this day) had explained to me that EntreMed's technology 
was years behind other technologies.  Things can change quick 
overnight for a biotech stock if the MARKET thinks the company 
has a blockbuster therapy or drug for saving/extending lives.  
Again... a good way to play these types of stocks is with options 
(if options are available on the stock).  Since risk is unlimited 
in a short, I prefer to play the downside in a biotech stock with 
a put option.  From the bullish side, the most you can lose is 
your initial investment.  Perhaps this is a good lesson on risk 
management that will save you lots of headaches and cash.

I'm not "friend bashing" in the above commentary.  This friend 
truly is knowledgeable on the various processes and treatments of 
solid tumor cancer treatment methods and how the drugs are 
designed to attack the cell or starve its blood supply.  The 
other thing I learned from EntreMed is "trade what you observe, 
not what you believe."


================
Market Sentiment
================

To Hold or Not to Hold by Jeffrey Canavan

That's the question facing the markets on Friday.  We've heard 
enough people spout that the bottom is here and the worst is 
over, but now is the time for them to put their money where their 
mouth is.  But should we?

Dow Jones Industrial Daily Chart




The Dow gained five points today.  Not great, but considering the 
Dow was down over 80 points today, it was a small victory.  What 
that price action formed was a hammer.  This one-day candlestick 
pattern signals that perhaps buyers have been able to wrestle 
back control from sellers.  This pattern is just a potential 
turning point, and requires bullish confirmation tomorrow.  
Should that fail to happen, like it did on June 11th, keep a 
close eye on support in the 10,200 to 10,120 area.

Nasdaq Composite Daily Chart




Similar story over at the Nasdaq, early morning sell off followed 
by an afternoon rally.  The Nasdaq finished 3 points in negative 
territory, but formed what is known in candlestick lingo as a 
doji.  Same interpretation as the hammer, after an extended 
decline, buyers have fought back to end the day in a draw, 
signaling a possible turning point.  Combined with a stochastic, 
one-day candle patterns have done a good job of marking turning 
points (see chart above).  If the Nasdaq doesn't turn, monitor 
support at 1,934 for signs of additional weakness. 

So if buying at support and selling at resistance has been the 
way to play this market, we should be at a buying point, most 
likely a short-term one.  Going long in the face five straight 
days of selling is a tough thing for any trader to do, and can 
lead to painful losses if done too soon.  Since the bond market 
opens before the stock market, look for rising bond yields as a 
potential reversal sign.  The PPI number also comes out before 
the bell, so keep an eye on how bonds and stock index futures 
react to that news.  The first hour of trading has been an awful 
indicator of how the day is going to go, so it might be wise to 
wait for all the rookies to place their orders first.  

Depending on your trading time frame, bears may want to consider 
lowering stops or locking in profits should we get a reversal.  
Aggressive bulls may want to consider small long positions (1/4 
the size of normal) as market conditions dictate.  Conservative 
bulls should start lining up long candidates with good 
risk/reward ratios and support close by.  Based on today's up and 
down trading, and the fact that tomorrow should be a light volume 
summer Friday, getting an early jump on weekend traffic doesn't 
sound bad either.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

VIX   23.64
VXN   48.15

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total           .76        584,760       446,984
Equity Only     .69        491,696       341,601
OEX            1.09         19,619        21,363
QQQ            1.61         35,901        57,962

1.61 is one of the most bearish readings in the triple Qs this 
year.  Another possible sign of a turning point?

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          34       -      Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    50       -      Bull Alert
DOW           36       -      Bull Alert
S&P 500       54       -      Bull Confirmed  

Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 
30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  0.96
10-Day Arms Index  1.21  
21-Day Arms Index  1.13
55-Day Arms Index  1.07

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1723           1363
NASDAQ    1681           1984

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      143             59
NASDAQ     55             99

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Advisory Sentiment 

Bullish  Bearish  Correction   Net   Change 
  52.6%    23.7%     23.7%    28.9%   -0.4%

A bearish reading of 25% to 30%, combined with a bullish reading 
greater than 55% is typically considered bearish by contrairians.  
A net percentage greater than 30% is also viewed as bearish. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/31/01
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500
There were no significant changes in the bullish percent data this 
week.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
7/17/01      336,836   403,561   (66,725)   ( 9.01%)
7/24/01      317,241   392,146   (74,905)   (10.56%)
7/31/01      335,532   409,352   (73,820)   ( 9.91%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 41,144) - 5/1/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
7/17/01      122,525     50,211   72,314     41.86%
7/24/01      141,372     61,665   79,717     39.26%
7/31/01      129,648     54,552   75,096     40.77%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01
 
NASDAQ-100
There were no significant changes in the bullish percent data 
this week.
 
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
7/17/01       26,721     37,225   (10,504)  (16.43%)
7/24/01       27,396     39,198   (11,802)  (17.72%)
7/31/01       28,009     39,613   (11,604)  (17.16%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
7/17/01       11,680     8,183    3,497      17.61% 
7/24/01       12,170     7,744    4,426      22.23%
7/31/01       11,216     8,938    2,278      11.30%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
There were no significant changes in the bullish percent data this 
week.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
7/17/01       14,145    12,963    1,182      4.4%
7/24/01       16,080    12,812    3,268     11.3%
7/31/01       17,748    13,669    4,079     13.0% 

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
7/17/01        5,255     9,144    (3,889)   (27.01%)
7/24/01        5,599     9,526    (3,927)   (25.96%)
7/31/01        5,049     9,079    (4,030)   (28.52%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01
----------------------------------------------------------------- 


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================

Chevron Corp. - CHV Close:$90.59 Change:+0.58 Stop:$93.00  

Original Comment When Selected on August 2nd:

Company Description:
The third largest US integrated oil company (behind Exxon Mobil and 
Texaco) runs more than 8,100 gas stations and has proved reserves of
5 billion barrels of oil and 9.5 trillion cu. ft. of natural gas.  
It will expand even further by buying Texaco, and the new 
ChevronTexaco will be the world's fourth-largest integrated oil 
company, behind Exxon, Mobil, Royal Dutch/Shell, and BP.  Overseas,
Chevron is pursuing an exploration and production strategy in such 
lucrative areas as Kazakhstan and Angola, and it holds a 50-percent 
stake in Caltex, a global refiner and marketer jointly owned by 
Texaco. Chevron has also combined its chemicals operations with 
those of Phillips Petroleum.

Fundamentals: 
Analysts forecast the company will earn $7.86 per share in 2001 and 
$5.98 in 2002.  Last year, the company earned $8.13 per share.  The 
company has a current P/E of 11 and a forward 2001 P/E of 12.  The 
average P/E for the industry is 14.  

Why We Like It: 
The shares are showing a topping pattern with consecutive trading 
sessions of lower closes and session highs.  After a sharp move up 
from $84.75 on July 24th the shares are over extended and ready to 
test lower levels.  The next support level is the 200-day moving 
average of $87.77.  Critical support exists for the shares at $85; 
if the bears pick up steam, a move through this level would make 
likely a test of $80.

Updated Comments:
Oil stocks got a brief reprieve today, and Chevron gained 54 
cents.  That wasn't even enough to recoup 50 percent of 
yesterday's losses.  As the 50-day moving average continues to 
fall, this stock still looks like a good short candidate.

Picked on August 2nd at $91.05
Gain since picked:       +0.52
Earnings Date             N/A





==========
Watch List
==========

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 65.72 change: +0.63

WHAT TO WATCH:  Honestly?  You should be watching the NASDAQ.
Shares of QCOM have held up pretty well the last few days only
dipping on Wednesday when selling pressure was the strongest.
If the NASDAQ can reverse course and begin its multi-day journey
back to the top of its trading range (2100) then QCOM might be
able to breakthrough resistance at $69/$70 and really have room
to move.  On the other hand if the NASDAQ collapses further then
QCOM will not be immune for long and shares could trade as low
as $57.50 or worse.




---

Check Point - CHKP - close: 40.51 change: +0.81

WHAT TO WATCH:  With the GSO software index hovering at support
near 180 and shares of CHKP hovering at $40 the stock could go
either way.  If the NASDAQ rallies up, then CHKP could trade up
to $45/$46.  If the NASDAQ breaks down then CHKP could drop to
$35 again.  Not a bad move either way if you can catch it.




---

Qwest Comm. - Q - close: 24.29 change: +0.09

WHAT TO WATCH:  Investors should be looking for a close over $25.
You upward target depends on how much you believe in the company's
fundamentals.  Many analysts feel that the sell-off in Qwest 
shares are way overdone.  From the end of April, shares have 
fallen from almost $42 to $23 just a few days ago.  One possible
culprit was a sell-off in rival Global Crossing (GX).  Last week
GX announced they would be forced to slash their own growth
outlooks.  In contrast Qwest just confirmed their own growth
outlook for 2002 two days ago (Reuters).  We feel that we might
be looking at a potential bottom in Q so it's worth keeping an
eye on the stock over the next few days (market permitting).




---

Texas Instruments - TXN - close: 34.20 change: +0.54

WHAT TO WATCH:  There always seems to be trading opportunities
in the semi stocks and TXN may be one to watch now.  Keeping 
your eyes on the NASDAQ and the SOX, TXN could go either direction.
If the sector/market rallies, then TXN could return to $38 or
its 200-dma (38.31).  If the sector/market falters, then TXN could
fall to support near $30/$29.50.




---

Intl. Business Machines - IBM - close: 104.08 change: -0.11

WHAT TO WATCH:  Yet another stock teetering on support, IBM 
bounced off support at $103 for the sixth time since the middle
of July.  Today marked the fifth down day in a row for the stock
and its second day under its 200-dma (104.36).  The broader
market will be the key but whatever direction IBM decides to go
traders could see several points.  Upper resistance is at $110
while short-term support is scattered between 103 and 100.  
However, below 100 the stock could fall to 95 or 90.





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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 08-09-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/8476_2.asp
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In section two:

Split Trader
  Split Announcements: CONMED (CNMD), John Nuveen Co. (JNC)
  New Plays: General Dynamics Corp - GD (Bullish)
  Play Updates: SBIB, SSP
  Closed Plays: None

Net Bulls
  New Plays: Ebay - EBAY (Bullish)
  Bullish Play Update: Microsoft Corp. - MSFT
  Bearish Play Updates:  SPOT, PSFT
  Closed Plays: None

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: Newmont Mining Corp - NEM (Bullish) 
  Bullish Play Updates: GCI, RAIL
  Bearish Play Updates: BZH, CHV, RIG 
  Closed Plays: None

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) 

=================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

===================
Split Announcements
===================

CONMED Declares Stock Split

The Board of Directors of medical technology company CONMED 
Corporation (Nasdaq:CNMD) announced its approval of a 3-for-2 
stock split of its common shares, payable in the form of a 50 
percent stock dividend on September 7, 2001. Upon the expiration 
date of September 10 there will be 25 million shares outstanding 
and a float of 11.5 million. The last split announced was a 3:2 
in December 1995 at the $30 level.

On August 1, CONMED announced that its subsidiary, Linvatec 
Corporation, released the UltraSorb Suture Anchor for rotator 
cuff repair, offering many advantages over current suture 
products.  Joseph J. Corasanti, President and CEO of CONMED 
comments, "Our shoulder surgery offering is among the fastest 
growing of any of our arthroscopic products. The bioabsorbable 
UltraSorb implant adds to the depth of our shoulder line because 
of its ease-of-use and strong fixation capabilities." Approximately 
400,000 rotator cuff repairs are performed globally each year.

Upon today's split announcement, shares traded down  -0.71 after 
opening lower to $30.92.  133 thousand shares change hands on the 
average.

About the Company:

CONMED is a medical technology company specializing in 
instruments and implants for arthroscopic sports medicine, and 
powered surgical instruments for orthopedic, ENT, neuro-surgery, 
and other surgical specialties. The Company is also a leading 
developer, manufacturer and supplier of advanced medical devices, 
including RF electrosurgery systems used in all types of surgery, 
ECG electrodes for heart monitoring and minimally invasive 
surgical devices. Headquartered in Utica, New York, the Company's 
2,400 employees distribute its products worldwide from eight 
manufacturing locations. (company press release)

 


===

Money Manager John Nuveen Company Declares Stock Split,
Increases Share Buyback Program

During regular trading on Thursday, The John Nuveen Company 
(NYSE: JNC) announced a 3-for-2 stock split of its common stock, 
payable September 27, 2001. This is the Company's first split 
announced since public trading began in 1992. JNC also authorized 
an increase in its common share buyback program for up to 2.75 
million additional shares in the open market.  Approximately 
290,000 shares are currently available for purchase under the 
previous program.

The Company has also declared a regular quarterly cash dividend 
of $0.36 per share to be paid September 14 to shareholders of 
record as of September 4. Fractional shares will be paid out in 
cash.

Chairman and CEO Tim Schwertfeger comments, "We are very pleased 
that Nuveen's continued growth and strong performance have 
created the opportunity for a stock split. This action is a 
reflection of our confidence in the continuing momentum of our 
business. The high quality orientation of our investment 
products, particularly in today's market environment, positions 
us well with financial advisors and their affluent and high net 
worth investors seeking to rebalance and moderate risk in their 
portfolios. We believe that over time the split will help to 
create a more liquid market in our Company's stock for current 
and prospective shareholders." 

The John Nuveen Company currently has 31 million shares 
outstanding, a float of 3.4 million, and 150 million shares 
authorized for issuance. The stock averages a volume of 38 
thousand shares on a 3-month basis and has a 52-week range of 
$43.00-$63.80.  JNC closed up +0.33 to $63.05 on Thursday.

 


============
ST New Plays
============

  -------------------------
  New Split Candidate Play
  -------------------------

General Dynamics Corp - GD Close:$83.85 Change:+1.84 Stop:$79.00

Company Description:
Falls Church, Virginia-based defense manufacturer operates in four 
primary areas: marine (warships and nuclear submarines), aerospace 
(business jets), information systems and technology (command and 
control systems), and combat systems (tanks and amphibious assault 
vehicles).  Almost 60-percent of its revenue comes from the US 
government, and it is the largest shipbuilder for the US Navy.  The 
company's Bath Iron Works subsidiary builds the Navy's class DDG 51 
destroyers.  Another subsidiary, Electric Boat, builds Seawolf 
class attack subs.  The company's Land Systems subsidiary builds 
the M1 series tank.  GD has been focusing on its commercial 
aircraft and defense-related electronics operations, but it's also 
expanding into munitions for tanks and other weapons systems.  The 
company has announced a tender offer good through August 17th of 22 
million shares for rival Newport News Shipbuilding (NNS).  This 
equates to approximately $2.1 billion, or 10 times operating 
earnings.

Fundamentals: 
Analysts forecast the firm will earn $4.56 per share on sales of 
$11.9 billion and $5.17 on $12.5 billion in 2002.  Last year, the 
company earned $4.03 on $10.4 billion.  This gives the company a 
current P/E of 20.8 and a forward 2001 one of 18.  This is inline 
with the industry average P/E of 20.  Other fundamental industry 
comparisons are gross profit margin (company: 23.89-percent, 
industry: 19.48-percent), return on equity (24.4-percent, 4-
percent), price/sales ratio (1.55, 0.89), price/book ratio (4.18, 
2.58), price/cash flow ratio (14.42, 11.65) and debt/equity 
ratio(0.28, 0.87).   

Why We Like It: 
This defense monster has one of the best balance sheets in the 
industry and strong cash flow.  The shares have been consolidating 
just short of resistance at $84 in a range of roughly $84 to 
$81.50.  On Thursday, the shares put in a strong day from the 
opening bell through to the close with nary a dip in-between.  
Volume spiked from 595k on Wednesday to 920k on Thursday.  This is 
consistent with other recent bullish indications; as the shares 
have consolidated, on down days volume has been consistently lower 
than on up days.  Taken as a whole, it looks as if the bulls are 
gearing up for another run at besting $84.  Conservative traders 
can wait for a close above $85 before taking a position.  Our 
longer-term price objective is $95; intermediate resistance is at 
$88.00.  We will begin with a stop at $79. 

Picked on August 8th at $83.85
Earnings Date            10/17 (Not Confirmed)





===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Split Run Updates
  -----------------

Sterling Banc. - SBIB - close: 21.84 change: -0.35 stop: 21.35 *new*

If you remember our write up on Tuesday (Aug. 7th) we felt that
SBIB might make a good trade up into its payable split date of
September 19th.  However, with the continuing broader market 
declines, only the rarest of stocks even with an upcoming split 
will not be able keep a strong uptrend.  If the Dow and the NASDAQ
break down below strong support then we could see a sharp round of
panic selling as SBIB investors rush in to lock in any profits from 
the last several weeks.  The last few days have almost produced
what some candlestick fans might call an "evening star".  This is
a potential bearish reversal signal.  We think it's just a little
profit taking from the big breakout three days ago.  However, to
better protect trading capital we suggest moving the stop up.
The newsletter will place ours just under the 10-dma (which is at 
21.41) or 21.35.  Traders with a bullish bias should be hoping
for a bounce at 21.50.  There is more support at 21 but we'd 
rather be out sooner and re-evaluate later.

Picked on August 7th @ $  22.09
Gain since picked:      -  0.25
Earnings Date:             N/A  





  -----------------------
  Split Candidate Updates
  -----------------------

E W Scripps - SSP - close: 70.05 change: -0.08 stop: 69.00 *new*

The company put out a press release with July's revenues with
mixed results.  Revenues for July were $112M, down 1.9% from a 
year ago.  Newspaper revenues were down 2% versus a year ago.  
However, Scripps Networks, their TV division, saw revenues up 
15% to almost $27M.   Shares dipped in early trading but bulls
managed to keep the stock above support of $70.  If you haven't
looked at a chart of SSP lately, maybe you should.  The stock
has been holding up rather well compared to the rest of the
market.  Considering the current environment we're going to 
snug our stop up very tight at $69.  This should limit our
exposure just under $1.25.

Picked on August 2nd @ $  70.21
Gain since picked:      -  0.16
Earnings Date:          7/12/01 





==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  --------------
  New Long Play
  --------------

Ebay - EBAY Close: $62.84 Change: +0.45 Stop: $59.00

Company Description:
eBay Inc. has developed a Web-based community in which buyers and 
sellers are brought together in an auction format to buy and sell 
items such as antiques, coins, collectibles, computers, 
memorabilia, stamps and toys. 

Fundamentals:
For the 3 months ended 3/31/01, revenues rose 79% to $154.1M. Net 
income totaled $21.1M, up from $1.8M. Results reflect an increased 
number of registered users, higher gross merchandise sales and 
improved operating margins.

For the 2001 fiscal year the company's net income is estimated to 
increase 114-percent, while it is anticipated that 2002 net income 
will rise by 60-percent.  Analysts expect company earnings to rise 
from $0.45 in 2001 to $0.72 in 2002.  The current P/E is 139 and 
the forward P/E is 87.

Strategy:

After reaching a near term high of $71.30 in the middle of June, 
shares of EBAY took a well deserved breather, retracing recent 
gains back down to support at $60.00.  The consolidation phase 
that the stock has seen this month has dragged shares under the 20 
and 50 DMAs and could represent a strong opportunity for investors 
at current levels.  Perusing through technical indicators, 
Stochastics show that EBAY has returned to what could be a 
profitable trading range.  With MACD sitting at the break even 
line and support being reinforced over the last three weeks, all 
that remains is a catalyst to remind buyers.

We like EBAY at current levels and are convinced that if buyers 
return to the tech markets in the month of August, the blue chip 
types are likely to be some of the strongest beneficiaries.  
Bearing this in mind, as well as the strong support we see at 
$60.00, we'll place our stop at $59.00.  Short-term traders might 
wish to wait for a minor pullback, but resistance probably won't 
arrive until shares clear $65.00.  It is at this approximate level 
that a short-term exit would be most favorable.  However, the 
longer-term investor may wish to hold on until the next level of 
resistant at $69.00 or longer until the recent high of $71.30 is 
reached.  Either way, do remember to protect the downside with a 
stop at $59.50.


Picked on August 9th $62.84
Earnings Date          10/18 (Unconfirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------------

Microsoft Corp. - MSFT - close: 65.01 change: +0.15 stop: 64.00

As usual there was a rain of news articles about Microsoft
relating to everything from the court case, the Windows XP launch,
the icon debate and AOL and MSN's customer satisfaction.  The
stock didn't move much which probably helped both the Dow and
NASDAQ remain above their current support levels.  The intraday
low did come within 30 cents of our stop but we remain in the
play.  As long as you keep a tight stop this may be a good 
entry point if you just have to trade something.  Otherwise, look
for shares to cross back over $66 or $67 before making any moves.

Picked on August 2nd @ $67.45
Gain since picked:     - 2.44
Earnings Date:          07/19 (confirmed)





  -----------------------
  NB Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------------

PanAmSat Corp. - SPOT - close: 32.38 change: +0.43 stop: 34.00

As you know, Hughs Electronics (GMH) owns a majority stake in
SPOT.  EchoStar (DISH) is trying to purchase GMH for its DirecTV
division.  However, a study was just released that said if this
merger came to pass, the new marriage would create monopolistic
conditions for certain areas of the population.  This was the
exact argument DISH tried to use against News Corp's bid to
acquire GMH.  Shares of SPOT managed a small gain on the day 
but the stock closed off its highs and below resistance in the
33.00-33.50 area.  More conservative traders looking to capitalize
on any move may want to wait for shares to fall below 31.50 to
confirm SPOT's weakness.

Picked on August 3rd @ $31.58
Gain since picked:     - 0.80
Earnings Date:           N/A  




---

PeopleSoft - PSFT - close: 40.71 change: +1.20 stop: 45.50

PSFT managed a small bounce today after falling 6.5% on Wednesday
during the software sector's punishing decline with the NASDAQ's
breakdown mid-week.  The retracement from $45 to $40 is complete
and PSFT almost hit its 200-dma yesterday with a low of 38.54.
Mid-afternoon today a story was released that said the U.S. Dept.
of Defense had made a deal with PSFT to use the PeopleSoft 8
Human Resources Management Systems for DoD's 3.1 million military 
personnel HR and payroll needs.  This is likely to be a significant
account for PSFT but details including the final contract amount
was not released.  Alas the good news could not shake PSFT's stock
out of its trend of lower highs.  Bears should be looking at two
key levels now for the next move down.  $40 is the first hurdle
followed by the 200-dma currently at 38.23.  New entries should be
made carefully as the stock will likely find some amount of 
support in 2.50 increments (40.00, 37.50, 35.00, 32.50, etc...).
  
Picked on August 7th @ $42.38
Gain since picked:     + 1.67
Earnings Date:           N/A  





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  --------------
  New Long Plays
  --------------

Newmont Mining Corp - NEM Close:$20.50 Change:+1.36 Stop:$18.50

Company Description:
The company is the world's second largest gold producer, its Carlin 
(Nevada) Trend and other North American operations produce about 
65-percent of its total gold production. Newmont acquired Battle 
Mountain Gold, with four mines (two in Canada and one each in 
Bolivia and Australia) in 2001. Newmont also has a 51-percent stake 
in Peru's Yanacocha Mine and produces gold through operations in 
Mexico (44-percent owned La Herradura), Uzbekistan (50-percent 
owned Zarafshan-Newmont), and Indonesia (80-percent owned 
Minahasa). Batu Hijau, a 56-percent owned Indonesian mining 
project, produces gold and copper. Newmont's proven and probable 
reserves total 66.3 million ounces of gold and 6.1 billion pounds 
of copper. Over the next five years, the company has plans:  to 
produce at least 5 million oz. annually; reduce cash costs to below 
$160 an oz.; raise annual production at Yanacocha in Peru to over 
2.5 million oz.; cut the ratio of net debt to total capital to 25% 
to 30% within three years; and reinforce its commitment to 
community development, environmental responsibility and employee 
safety.

Fundamentals: 
Analysts project the company will lose 9-cents per share this year 
on sales of $1.7 billion and to earn 35-cents on $1.9 billion in 
2002.  Last year, the company lost 8-cents on $1.55 billion.  
Analysts estimate the company will sport earnings growth of 28.5 
percent for the next five years as opposed to the industry average 
of 13.86-percent.

Why We Like It: 
There are a number of factors boosting the shares of gold 
producers; a weakening dollar, slumping US equities and low 
yielding bonds are losing their attraction for many investors.  In 
addition consumption is outstripping production and gold 
inventories at COMEX warehouses are dropping.  This has driven gold 
futures to climb $6 an ounce on Thursday to their highest level in 
six weeks.  Newmont Mining shares joined in and pulled out of a 
base to gain $1.36 on the day.  Trading volume 74-percent higher 
than the daily average, suggests the bulls are running.  With 
strong momentum and a positive business outlook, we have a shorter 
-term price target of $24 and a longer term one of $29.00.  
Conservative traders can wait for a break above $21 to present an 
attractive entry. 

Picked on August 9th at $20.50
Earnings Date            11/1 (Not Confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Long Play Updates
  -----------------

Gannett GCI Close:$67.18 Gain:-1.93 Stop:$66.50 NEW

Media stocks attracted some selling today after Dow Jones & Co. 
reported that advertising lineage in the Wall Street Journal fell 30%.  
Since Gannett derives a good portion of its revenues from advertisers, 
today's drop was mostly due to that news.  Support at $68 was lost, so 
in light of this new data, we are raising our stop to $66.50.

Picked on August 3rd at $68.53
Gain since picked:       -0.62
Earnings Date             N/A




RailAmerica RAIL Close:$13.30 Gain:+0.20 Stop:$12.00

RAIL had a decent day, gaining 20 cents to $13.30.  That moves the 
stock further away from support, but resistance at $13.77 is still a 
hindrance.  The 50-day moving average flattening out, and the CEO 
selling 80,000 shares flashes some signs of caution for this stock.  

Picked on July 14th at $11.41
Gain since picked:      +1.72
Earnings Date            N/A





  ------------------
  Short Play Updates
  ------------------

Beazer Homes BZH Close:$64.74 Gain:+0.97 Stop:$70.00

Beazer gained 97 cents today, but failed to climb back above the 
50-day moving average, and long-term up trend.  If poor housing 
data comes out next week, this stock could be doomed.  Canadian 
housing starts fell 13.7% percent last month.  

Picked on August 6th at $65.08
Gain since picked:       +1.98
Earnings Date             N/A




---

Chevron CHV Close:$90.59 Gain:+0.58 Stop:$93.00

Oil stocks got a brief reprieve today, and Chevron gained 54 
cents.  That wasn't even enough to recoup 50 percent of 
yesterday's losses.  As the 50-day moving average continues to 
fall, this stock still looks like a good short candidate.

Picked on August 2nd at $91.05
Gain since picked:       +0.52
Earnings Date             N/A




---

Transocean Sedco Forex RIG Close:$29.75 Gain:+0.50 Stop:$36.50

Oil Service stocks also got a break from the selling, and RIG 
gained 50 cents.  That doesn't even put a dent in the recent 
losses.  The trend for this stock still looks bearish.  

Picked on July 31st at $32.29
Gain since picked:      +2.65
Earnings Date            N/A





==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

  ---------------------------------
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  ---------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
MGA       Magna International Inc   64.20  +0.70
ROST      Ross Stores Inc.          25.18  +1.08
PC        Perez Companc Sa          13.50  +0.57
PSS       Payless Shoe Stores       57.78  +0.68
FED       Firstfed Financial Corp   34.25  +1.19
WTSLA     Wet Seal Inc Cl A         15.40  +1.70

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
DDS       Dillards Inc              16.51  +1.37
WFII      Wireless Facilities Inc    9.69  +1.72
GERN      Geron Corp                14.94  +2.04
OATS      Wild Oats Markets Inc     11.95  +1.78
STEM      Stemcells Inc              6.45  +1.72

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
AEG       Aegon Nv                  29.46  +1.40
TJX       Tjx Companies Inc         35.35  +1.32
NFS       Nationwide Fin Srvc Inc   46.45  +1.01
ASD       American Standard Cos     70.25  +1.99
NEM       Newmont Mining Corp       20.50  +1.36
GPT       Greenpoint Financial Corp 43.70  +1.45

  -----------------------------------------
   Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
 -------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
GS        Goldman Sachs Group       80.05  -1.75
GPS       Gap Onc                   25.60  -1.57
PVN       Providian Fin Corp        46.12  -1.12
BBY       Best Buy Co Inc           61.53  -1.37
CVC       Cablevision Systems Cl A  51.85  -2.00
TSS       Total System Services     31.97  -1.21

  ------------------------------------------------------------
   Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
  -------------------------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
RX        Ims Health Inc            24.80  -0.45
TROW      T Rowe Price Assoc.       36.85  -0.50
SPW       Spx Corp                 121.60  -3.52
PNR       Pentair Inc               36.37  -0.18
RNF       Raymond James Financia   l28.60  -1.90
HBC       Hsbc Holdings Plc         59.15  -0.75

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