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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 08/14/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Tuesday 08-14-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section one:

Market Wrap: Earnings abound in after-hours
Market Sentiment: You are Getting Very Sleepy 
Play-of-the-Day: Univ. of Phoenix - UOPX (Bullish)
Watch List: Appears in Monday, Wednesday and Weekend Edition

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       8-14-2001          High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10411.34 -  3.74 10478.81 10386.92  .96 bln   1900/1203	
NASDAQ   1964.68 - 17.72  1998.59  1961.53 1.21 bln   1791/1839
S&P 100   606.98 -  3.47   614.59   605.58   Totals   3691/3042
S&P 500  1186.62 -  4.56  1198.79  1184.26             
RUS 2000  479.95 +  2.59   482.61   477.60 
DJ TRANS 2859.16 + 23.75  2866.84  2835.46 
VIX        23.01 -   .23    23.30    22.84 
Put/Call Ratio      0.74
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Earnings abound in after-hours by Jeff Bailey

Stocks are receiving a rather bullish after-hours response from 
traders.  It's perhaps not that the earning's news is all that 
positive, but more likely not any worse than previously expected.

After reaching a high of $115 on April 7, 2000, it was a downward 
run for Applied Materials (AMAT) when the stock reached a low of 
34.12 on December 21, 2000.  Since that time, the worlds largest 
chip equipment company as been setting a series of higher lows, 
as investors continue to look for a turnaround.

Today, after the close of trading, Applied Materials reported 
what many market participants probably knew.  Net Income 
(including charges) for the latest quarter was 29 million, or 3 
cents a share, compared with net income of 604 million, or 70 
cents a share, during the same quarter last year.  While the 
stock price has lost roughly 70% of its value in the past 16 
months, the bottom line has suffered equally.  

Just as the downward trend was developed when the fundamentals 
looked sound, an upward trend has been in place, even though the 
fundamentals are poor.  For those that believe the market is 
forward looking, this kind of action can be viewed as positive as 
long as the trend holds.  Currently, I've got a simple upward 
trend on my chart for Applied Materials (AMAT) anchored from the 
December 21st lows of 34.12 and attached to the April 4th low of 
36.56.  This leaves traders and investors with a gradual upward 
trend currently residing at the 40 level.  

Applied Materials Chart - last 11 months



The key term here is "gradual" upward trend.  When many analysts 
say "don't expect to double your money in the next 90-days in a 
semiconductor stock" the technicals seem to point that out also.  
Applied Materials (AMAT) is what I'd consider the "key" stock for 
traders to understand and monitor for the semiconductor equipment 
segement.  The stock closed out near our estimate of $44.33 from 
the 01:30 EST update and is trading higher to $44.95 in after-
hours trading.  As you can see, this stock is currently in a 
wedge and about the only way to really get a feel for trading is 
from retracement brackets.  Trader's that may have implemented an 
options straddle from the 01:30 EST Update, may be wise to sell 
the call portion of that option tomorrow should the stock trade 
in the $47-$49 range.  This would have the trader removing the 
bulk of risk from the straddle trade.  I'll try and cover how 
this strategy would be playing out tomorrow in the 01:30 EST 
Update.

BEA Systems reports in line, but warns on Q3

Shares of applications software maker BEA Systems (NASDAQ:BEAS) 
are also trading higher in after-hours trading to $19.60 after an 
expected disappointing result.  Yesterday, the stock set a 52-
week low when it traded below $18.10 and this evening after hours 
trading looks to be short-covering.  BEAS reported net income 
(excluding special items) of $43.9 million, or 10 cents a share, 
which beat estimates by a penny.  In the same period a year ago, 
BEAS posted comparable net income of $21.9 million, or 5 cents a 
share.  "What" you say?  Net income doubled, but the stock is 
trading near a 52-week low set just yesterday and trades down 
nearly 80% from its 52-week high of $89.50 set back in October!  
What's up with that?

Oh... outlook going forward.  On a cautionary note, BEA Systems 
said that in light of a weakening economic environment, it now 
envisions flat revenue in the 3rd quarter.  The company also 
warned that it expects mid-single digit growth in the fourth 
quarter.  Based on top line guidance (revenue), many analysts 
then predict the company to earn 39 to 40 cents a share for the 
full year.  Even at $18.61, shares of BEAS will be trading at 
nearly 46 times forward earnings.  Some feel that is still a 
"rich" price to be paying for single digit growth.

Could be set for trader's rally

Tomorrow's trading could see stocks actually find some buyers.  
The big question is will it be bears buying back there shorts on 
some of the stocks that reported less than spectacular news after 
the bell?  This seems to have been the theme of late.  I'd 
encourage traders to try and stick with stocks that are in some 
type of upward trend where the group (sector) is also in some 
resemblance of upward trend.

For software stocks as reflected by the GSTI Software Index 
(GSO.X) the only resemblance of an upward trend there is one that 
would have been attached to Monday's low.  In essence, a trader 
trading bullish in the software group is buying a sector trend 
that may be just two day's old.  I'd remain cautious of software 
stocks at this time.  

Recently, the CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) has looked like it 
wants to try and retest the lows set in early April (see July 
5th, July 10th market wraps).  Shares of Yahoo! Inc. 
(NASDAQ:YHOO) look to be dragging things lower here as this stock 
traded $15 today and closed at $14.93.  While the stock did 
recover somewhat in after-hours trading to $15.07, the stock 
looks technically weak.  I'd consider the stock a good short 
candidate on any type of rally near the $16 level.

The Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) showed renewed life today, up 1.55% 
as shares of Hutchison Technology (NASDAQ:HTCH) rose 3.98% to 
$19.55 (see July 30th market wrap) and index component Storage 
Technology (NYSE:STK) challenged downward trend at $14.60 to 
close up 3.83% at $14.62.

The market internals remains somewhat suspect based on the 
bullish percent charts.  Last Friday, the NASDAQ-100 bullish 
percent ($BPNDX) reversed back into a column of O's after 
reaching the 51% level and are back in "bear confirmed" status.  
The other bullish percent charts and reading have shown little 
change in the past several sessions.  This type of activity 
should keep trader rather flexible in their trading and paying a 
lot of attention to risk/reward analysis in their trades.  Stocks 
that reach the upper end of a retracement range have been 
susceptible to pullbacks.  There are encouraging signs from 
previously mentioned stocks like Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) (Active 
Trader section 7/26) and Telefonos De Mexico (NYSE:TMX) as these 
stocks have been able to hang around the upper ends for their 
ranges.  Should we start to see some stocks like NKE and TMX get 
above their current trading ranges, then I think traders can 
begin to give stocks a little more room to breath and not be so 
quick to take profits.

Until that time however, it's still a much better idea to book 
the 7-10% gains when you get them, especially if the stock is in 
the upper end of a trading range.  There is usually an 
opportunity to get back on board when the pullback occurs.  So 
far, there have been plenty of pullbacks and the "greedy" trader 
looking for the gorilla short-term trade has seen nice profits 
erode.

Once you or I sell a bullish trade for a gain and it breaks out 
of a trading range after we sell it, then and only then do I 
begin to get the feeling that the market is getting more 
aggressive on the buy side.  From what I'm seeing right now, that 
has yet to develop.


================
Market Sentiment
================

You are Getting Very Sleepy by Jeffrey Canavan

Reportedly volume at the NYSE was 962 million, but it felt more 
like 9.62.  It was hypnotic staring at my trading screen watching 
the Dow go up 5, down 2, then up 6.  At times I was convinced 
that my computer had frozen, but then minutes later something 
would actually change on my screen.

The day had some promise when July retail sales came in better 
than expected, and Home Depot posted a 10% increase in earnings, 
but the Wal-Mart had to come out and negate all that by lowering 
their guidance for the remainder of the year.  Traders then 
decided to make like a turtle, and hide in their shells.  Perhaps 
if we drop down to a 60-minute chart we can find some movement.  

Dow Jones Industrial 60-Minute Chart



The most obvious reason for the Dows inability to move higher is 
the two-month downtrend holding back any advances.  The next 
reason could be that the Dow is unable to penetrate the neckline 
of a head and shoulders bottom that is also a 61.8% retracement 
of the August decline. Even if this is a head and shoulders 
bottom, the upside target is only 250 points higher.  With the 
Dow failing to follow through these past two days, it now becomes 
a 50/50 proposition whether the index rises to test resistance at 
10,600, or falls to test support at 10,200.  A close above 10,450 
would be a promising short-term sign, and close below 10,354 
would be less promising.

Nasdaq Composite 60-Minute Chart



It's a similar story for the Nasdaq.  After completing a small 
head and shoulders bottom, the Nasdaq failed to retrace more than 
38.2% of its August losses.  Also helping to turn back the index 
was the 50-period moving average, and psychological 2000 level.  
In the short-term, the Nasdaq needs to hold above 1960, and 
closing above 2,000 would be even better.

With Applied Materials, BEA Systems, and Nvidia posting better 
than expected earnings after the bell, the Nasdaq has a chance to 
move higher tomorrow.  Whether the Nasdaq can hold any gains 
before investors start to worry about what Dell says on Thursday 
will be the test.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

VIX   23.01
VXN   48.44

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total           .74        520,181       383,809
Equity Only     .66        436,455       287,898
OEX            1.01         20,540        20,690
QQQ             .56         45,406        25,541

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data
The Nasdaq-100 has reversed into bear confirmed status.

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          34       -      Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    42      -8      Bear Confirmed
DOW           36       -      Bull Alert
S&P 500       54       -      Bull Confirmed  

Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 
30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.19
10-Day Arms Index  1.19 
21-Day Arms Index  1.14
55-Day Arms Index  1.10

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1899           1206
NASDAQ    1789           1841

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      175             28
NASDAQ     95             82

        Volume
NYSE      962
NASDAQ   1228

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Advisory Sentiment 

Bullish  Bearish  Correction   Net   Change 
  46.0%    27.0%     27.0%    19.0%   +0.4%

A bearish reading of 25% to 30%, combined with a bullish reading 
greater than 55% is typically considered bearish by contrairians.  
A net percentage greater than 30% is also viewed as bearish. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/07/01
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500
The net bearish position of commercial traders increased slightly, 
but that was the result of more long positions being dumped than 
short positions, and not a significant amount of new shorts being 
added.  The % of Open Interest for small traders is at bullish 
levels similar to February and March.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
7/24/01      317,241   392,146   (74,905)   (10.56%)
7/31/01      335,532   409,352   (73,820)   ( 9.91%)
8/07/01      331,881   406,210   (74,329)   (10.07%)


Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 41,144) - 5/1/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
7/24/01      141,372     61,665   79,717     39.26%
7/31/01      129,648     54,552   75,096     40.77%
8/07/01      128,454     53,191   75,263     41.43%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01
 
NASDAQ-100
Commercial traders added a few long positions and dropped a few 
shorts, but the most encouraging sign is the fact that small 
traders are starting to give up hope.
 
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
7/24/01       27,396     39,198   (11,802)  (17.72%)
7/31/01       28,009     39,613   (11,604)  (17.16%)
8/07/01       28,867     38,956   (10,089)  (14.88%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
7/24/01       12,170     7,744    4,426      22.23%
7/31/01       11,216     8,938    2,278      11.30%
8/07/01        9,715     8,098    1,617       9.08%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials continue to get slightly more bullish, small traders 
continue to get more bearish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
7/24/01       16,080    12,812    3,268     11.3%
7/31/01       17,748    13,669    4,079     13.0% 
8/07/01       18,644    13,733    4,911     15.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
7/24/01        5,599     9,526    (3,927)   (25.96%)
7/31/01        5,049     9,079    (4,030)   (28.52%)
8/07/01        4,841     9,909    (5,068)   (34.36%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01
----------------------------------------------------------------- 


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

Univ. of Phoenix - UOPX - close: 35.00 change: +1.75 stop: 31.00

Original Comments When Selected on August 13th:

Company Description:
This tracking stock for Apollo Group's University of Phoenix 
Internet subsidiary offers degree programs to more than 16,000 
students who access class notes and lectures from home through the 
Internet.  The firm offers ten web degrees in business, education, 
information technology, and nursing with a faculty of 1,200.

Fundamentals: 
Analysts forecast the firm will earn 32-cents per share in the 
fiscal year ending August 2001 on revenue of $171 million and 48-
cents on $254 million in 2002.  As the tracking stock was created 
in 2000, the company has not split out earnings per share for that 
fiscal year, however they have provided 2000 sales figures for the 
unit of $103 million.  On July 20th the company shares split 3:2. 

Why We Like It:
Add education to the short list of business areas including travel, 
books and flowers that are retail e-commerce winners.  Working 
adults wanting to upgrade their education are finding it easier to 
sign on to their computer than show up to class.  And whereas the 
tough economic times are hurting most businesses, for online 
educators the uncertainty creates a ready stream of customers.  

This means the University of Phoenix Online is not your typical 
dot-bomb, it is profitable with a 2001 forecast sales growth rate 
of 66-percent and 48-percent for 2002. 

UOPX shares rose from $15.09 on March 9th to close at $37.98 on 
July 30th.  Recent weakness has dipped the shares back to support  
near $32.00.  A strong move up on Monday on rising volume sets up 
an attractive risk/reward play.  A continuation of the Bullish 
momentum should not meet upside resistance until a 14-percent pop 
to $38.00.  For investors with a longer-term outlook a point and 
figure analysis suggests an extended price objective of $50.00.  
The nearness of downside support means we can protect ourselves 
with a stop at $31.00.  

Updated Comments:
Investors are giving UOPX high marks as shares buck the trend of
current market conditions. The stock is up nicely for the second
day in a row on rising volume.  Volume was actually 1/3 higher 
than average as shares closed above potential resistance at $34.
We are looking for shares to continue their climb to $38 or if
the stock takes a breather we'll look for a bounce at $34.

Picked on August 13th at $33.25
Gain since picked:        +1.75
Earnings Date:             N/A  





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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 08-14-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/9610_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Split Trader
  Split Announcements: NVidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA)
  New Plays: None
  Play Updates: GD, SSP
  Closed Plays: None

Net Bulls
  New Plays: Verisign Inc. - VRSN (Bearish)
  Bullish Play Updates: UOPX, VTSS
  Bearish Play Updates: PeopleSoft - PSFT
  Bullish Closed Plays: eBay Inc - EBAY
  Bearish Closed Play: PanAmSat Corp. - SPOT

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: Ballard Power - BLDP (Bearish)
  Bullish Play Updates: NEM, PEP, RAIL
  Bearish Play Updates: BZH, CHV, RIG
  Closed Plays: None

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) 

=================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

===================
Split Announcements
===================

Tuesday, August 14, 2001, After Hours
 
Graphics chips designer sees pretty picture with 2:1 split
 
NVidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been an investor favorite for
2001. Shares closed at $85.85 today - up over 53 points for
the year. You may recognize the company among all the press
for Microsoft's upcoming XBox console game system. NVDA makes
the graphics chip for the XBox as well as PCs and workstations.
 
The split announcement game after the bell with the company's
2Q earnings report. Revenues were up 53% and earnings were 
39 cents a diluted share or $33.6M versus 28 cents or $22.5M
for 2Q last year. NVDA has been somewhat shielded by the 
slowdown in PC sales due to their expanded product lines and
this allowed them to raise their earnings guidance for the next 
two years based on expected sales.
 
The Board of Directors approved the 2-for-1 stock split as
a 100% stock dividend. The shareholder record date is Aug. 28th
and the payable date will be on or near Sept. 11th, 2001.
Thus shares should be trading at their new split price in mid-
September (this is a correction to the split alert that was
published earlier).
 
ABOUT THE COMPANY:
NVIDIA Corporation, based in Santa Clara, CA., is the global 
leader in advanced graphics and multimedia processing technology 
for the consumer and professional computing markets. Its 2D, 3D, 
video and multimedia capabilities make NVIDIA one of the premier 
semiconductor companies in the world. NVIDIA offers a wide range 
of products and services, delivering superior performance and 
crisp visual quality for PC-based applications such as 
manufacturing, science, e-business, entertainment, and 
education. (source: NVidia corp.)
 
 


===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  Split Candidate Updates
  -----------------------

General Dynamics - GD - close: 82.74 change: -1.59 stop: 79.00

Nervous investors decided to take a little money off the table
this week with shares of GD slipping below the $83 level.  Today's
move was a continuation of a late day dip on Monday despite the
Dow's sideways trading this week.  As usual whenever there is
news on Warren Buffet's positions it could affect a stock's share
price.  The media informed us today that of the several stocks
Warren had been selling recently, GD was one of them.  This 
potentially negative pressure could carry over into Wednesday's
trading.  Be careful if you're looking for a new long position.
If you're optimistic we could see a bounce at $81.50.  We're
going to leave our stop at $79 for the moment in case shares dip
to $80 before bouncing.

Picked on August 8th @ $  83.85
Gain since picked:      -  1.11
Earnings Date:         10/17/01 (not confirmed)




---

E W Scripps - SSP - close: 69.93 change: -0.71 stop: 69.00 

Scripps is another victim to spooked investors not willing to 
place any big bets and scalp any gains.  The stock had finally
started to move late last week and now it's back to support at
the $70 level.  Well, actually, it closed just under $70 which
causes us some concern for Wednesday's trading.  However, 69.50
has been the real bottom for the month of August so the stock
is hopefully preparing for a reversal.  We will leave our stop
at $69.  We don't recommend any new entries until stock confirms
upward direction.

Picked on August 2nd @ $  70.21
Gain since picked:      -  0.28
Earnings Date:          7/12/01 





==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  ---------------
  New Short Play
  ---------------

Verisign Inc. - VRSN Close:$48.98 Change:-0.63 Stop: $52.50 

Company Description:
VeriSign has two very successful product lines; securing Internet 
financial transactions and maintaining the registry of Internet 
Domain names.  Anyone who has used the Internet to trade a stock 
or make a purchase has probably had VeriSign's encryption and 
digital signature technology to thank for making certain the 
transaction did not fall into criminal hands.  They are the 900-
pound gorilla of ensuring the security of Internet financial 
transactions.  Clients and partners are a who's who of Internet 
giants including eBay, Charles Schwab, VISA, Ariba and Commerce 
One.  

Almost 30-percent of their revenue comes from registering the 
.com Internet extension and maintaining a database of web names 
called the registry.  The shares have rock and rolled in the past 
due to long-running negotiations with the Commerce Department that 
have alternately had them retaining, or losing, some or all of 
this lucrative monopoly.  The company has concluded these 
negotiations with an agreement that allows them to substantial 
keep the .com business.

Fundamentals: 
Analysts project the company will earn 63-cents per share on sales 
of $989 million and $1.04 on $1.4 billion in 2002.  Last year, the 
company earned 32-cents in sales of $474.8 million.  The shares 
have a current P/E of 153 and an estimated 2001 P/E of 78.  This is 
expensive when compared to the industry average P/E of 41.     

Why We Like It: 
Long-term Verisign is one of the premier tech firms, short term, 
its shares are suffering from significant selling pressure.  Three 
times during Tuesday's trading session the shares attempted to best 
$51 only to be turned back by the bears.  The final failure was a 
doozy as the shares did a dead drop from $51.07 at 2:45 EST into 
the $48.97 close.  Much of this decline was caused by nervousness 
going into Bea Systems' (BEAS) earnings announcement and the actual 
announcement turned out to be a mix of good and bad.  However, 
there was nothing in the announcement that is likely to reverse the 
intensity of the move.  We see a good probability of a test of 
support at $42.50.  If a bearish wind hits the overall market, the 
next support level is at $37.63.  The big test of this bearish 
scenario will come from support at $47.37.  Traders can reduce risk 
by waiting for a break through this level before taking a 
position.  Unfortunately, VRSN is a volatile play so we need to set 
our stop at $52.50 to avoid getting whipsawed out.     

Picked on August 14th at $48.98
Earnings Date             10/25 (Not Confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------------

Univ. of Phoenix - UOPX - close: 35.00 change: +1.75 stop: 31.00

Investors are giving UOPX high marks as shares buck the trend of
current market conditions. The stock is up nicely for the second
day in a row on rising volume.  Volume was actually 1/3 higher 
than average as shares closed above potential resistance at $34.
We are looking for shares to continue their climb to $38 or if
the stock takes a breather we'll look for a bounce at $34.

Picked on August 13th @ $33.25
Gain since picked:      + 1.75
Earnings Date:             N/A  




---

Vitesse Semi. - VTSS - close: 19.24 change: -0.81 stop: 17.00

Traders should remain patient when choosing their entry point on
VTSS.  That NASDAQ continues to languish and the SOX failed to 
close over the 600 level today despite the recent upgrade by 
Goldman Sachs.  Shares of VTSS slipped over 4% today and we may 
yet get an opportunity to target shoot into a play with a bounce 
at $18.  The entry points are simple depending on your aggressive-
ness.  Go long on a bounce between $18 and $20 or wait for the 
close over $20.  As always, when playing a semi stock, watch 
the SOX and the NASDAQ for confirmation.

Picked on August 10th @ $19.25
Gain since picked:      - 0.01
Earnings Date:            N/A  





  -----------------------
  NB Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------------

PeopleSoft - PSFT - close: 40.61 change: +0.30 stop: 42.50 

Oversold bounce? Considering that shares had dropped heavily
the previous week and were sitting at their 200-dma a bounce
was a strong possibility.  Monday's gain in the GSO software
index gave bulls hope that the group may have bottom and could
have prompted some shorts to do a little covering in PSFT.
With the industry looking for the BEAS earnings report today
to help offer some guidance we were not surprised that shares
of PSFT traded sideways.  Investors may have to look elsewhere
now that the BEAS report is out.  They managed to beat lowered
estimates but warned about the second half of the year.  This
was not a surprise as analysts had already warned that they 
expected BEAS to lower estimates for the 2nd half of 2001.  The
short-term direction of the software group is now in question.
Do buyers step in expecting all the bad news to already be 
factored in?  Or do the sellers overpower them with the bleak
outlook for the next six to nine months in this sector?  Looking
at a chart of the GSO we can see that it remains under previous
support of 180 and could potentially fall to the April lows of
155 if the bears can break it down past the previously placed
support in March at 175.

Picked on August 7th @ $42.38
Gain since picked:     + 1.77
Earnings Date:           N/A  





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  -----------------
  Closed Long Plays
  -----------------

eBay Inc - EBAY - close: 61.37 change: +0.64 stop: 59.00

What can you do?  This market refuses to let anything run (up) 
for more than a couple of days and this certainly includes 
anything related to tech issues.  In the news today was word
that eBay Inc had extended and expanded its current marketing
deal with AOL Time Warner for another three years.  This is
probably a positive move for eBay as they can reach a large 
number of new potential customers across the various media
outlets owned by AOL.  It's possible that this news may have
helped shares close in the green today unlike its partner AOL
who suffered a 7.7% decline under rumors of declining ad sales
and potential layoffs.  Back to EBAY, traders can easily see
that support at $59.50 - $60.00 remains intact.  Unfortunately,
the bearish trend of lower highs remain.  The stock has been
stuck in a $5 trading range for a couple of weeks and until
the bulls can breakthrough $65 the stock isn't going anywhere
(except maybe down).  We're going to close the play now with a
$1.47 loss and look for other equities that are moving now.

Picked on August 9th @ $62.84
Gain since picked:     - 1.47
Earnings Date:           N/A  




  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

PanAmSat Corp. - SPOT close: 33.00 change: -0.83 stop: 34.00

Sometimes even when you are right, you are wrong.  Our bearish 
selection opened up strong, tripped our $34.00 stop, announced its 
CEO left and gave back the day's gain.  

Picked on August 3rd @ $31.58
Gain since picked:     - 2.42
Earnings Date:           N/A  





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  ---------------
  New Short Plays
  ---------------

Ballard Power - BLDP Close: $32.02 Change: -2.18 Stop: $35.05

Company Profile:
Ballard Power Systems is engaged in the development and 
commercialization of proton exchange membrane fuel cells and 
related power generation systems for stationary, transportation & 
other applications. 

Fundamentals:
For the 3 months ended 3/31/01, revenues rose 86% to C$20.0M. Net 
loss rose 52% to C$22.0M. Results reflect increased sales of fuel 
cells to auto manufacturers and company partners, offset by 
increased R&D activities undertaken by associated companies.  
Analysts expect company earnings to rise from a loss of -$0.92 in 
2001 to a loss of -$0.86 in 2002.  P/E figures can not be 
calculated due to the fact that the company is not profitable.

Strategy:

What energy crisis?  So far this summer, California has not seen a 
black out and the per gallon cost of gasoline has yet to reach the 
much discussed $3.00 level.  News that the state's regulatory 
officials have over purchased energy on the open markets has 
translated into a plea with consumers to use more electricity so 
that losses on the purchase prices can be mitigated.  What a 
comedy of errors!  And will this translate to the overall economy?  
At any rate, manufacturers of alternative energy sources have been 
sold off since the middle of May and it looks as if losses will 
increase in coming quarters.  Current legislation favors the 
exploitation of existing resources and the call for energy 
conservation in this country tends to go unheeded.

Today's break through long-term support at $33.00 could signify 
that the floor is falling out from under BLDP.  Strong volume 
today, as well as over the last week on down days has reinforced 
our conviction of further declines.  Further, slowing auto sales, 
coupled with GM's entry into the fuel cell market could spell 
disaster for the small Vancouver Canada based company.  We like 
BLDP to test the psychologically significant price level of $30.00 
in upcoming days.  While this might be the perfect area to cover 
the short, should you maintain a short-term perspective, lower 
lows could be here in the coming weeks.  A move to $28.00 
represents our longer-term target.  Thinly traded, BLDP can move 
quickly.  As such, we'll use today's high of $35.05 for our stop 
loss.

Picked on August 14th $32.02
Earnings Date         11/06 (Unconfirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Long Play Updates
  -----------------

Newmont Mining NEM Close:$20.45 Gain:-0.51 Stop:$18.50

Up, down, up, down.  It's been a wild four days for gold stocks.  
Through it all, Newmont closed at $20.44, above the 50-day moving 
average, but below resistance at $20.64.  As the dollar continue drop, 
gold, and gold stocks, should continue to be an attractive investment.

Picked on July 14th at $20.50
Gain since picked:      -0.05
Earnings Date            11/1/01 (unconfirmed)




---

Pepsi PEP Close:$45.55 Gain:+0.50 Stop:$43.00

Pepsi gained 50 cents today, which puts the stock back above the 200-
day moving average.  There is plenty of support around in the $43 to 
$45 range to bolster this stock until it cracks near term resistance at 
$46.  

Picked on August 10th at $45.66
Gain since picked:        -0.11
Earnings Date               N/A




---

RailAmerica RAIL Close:$13.60 Gain:+0.05 Stop:$12.90 NEW

RailAmerica's second quarter earnings came in at $0.19, compared to 
$0.24 for the some quarter last year.  The decline was most attributed 
to a decline in the Australian and Canadian currencies, as well as the 
selling of certain operating entities.  On a "same railroad" basis 
adjusted for currency fluctuations, revenues and carloads rose 5 
percent.  

Picked on July 14th at $11.41
Gain since picked:      +2.31
Earnings Date            N/A





  ------------------
  Short Play Updates
  ------------------

Beazer Homes BZH Close:$61.36 gain:+0.36 Stop:$65.00 NEW

After losing support on Monday, Beazer has been unable to climb 
back above $62.  A bearish article in Baron's over the weekend 
reported that hedge fund manager Doug Kass was shorting 
homebuilding stocks, which fueled investors fears that the 
economic slowdown is starting to affect the housing industry.  We 
will find out on Thursday when housing starts data is released.

Picked on August 6th at $65.08
Gain since picked:       +3.72
Earnings Date             N/A




---

Chevron CHV Close:$92.24 Gain:+0.54 Stop:$93.00

Chevron continues to inch closer to our stop as crude oil prices 
hover around the $28 a barrel mark.  Also affecting Chevron stock 
is its pending merger with Texaco.

Picked on August 2nd at $91.05
Gain since picked:       -1.19
Earnings Date             N/A




---

Transocean Sedco Forex RIG Close:$30.47 Gain:+0.70 Stop:$31.00 NEW

Oil service stocks got a boost today, and RIG gain 70 cents..  
The two-month downtrend is looming overhead to minimize further 
gains, but we are lowering our stop to $31 just in case.

Picked on July 31st at $32.00
Gain since picked:      +1.82
Earnings Date            N/A





==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

  ---------------------------------
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  ---------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
AVX       Avx Corp                  22.52  +0.56
STR       Questar Corp              23.55  +0.55
EPD       Enterprise Products       46.40  +1.45
CNX       Consol Energy             26.50  +2.00
SKX       Skechers Usa Inc          22.35  +2.09
FTS       Footstar Inc              36.80  +0.95

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
BBI       Blockbuster Inc           19.80  +1.81
ODP       Office Depot Inc          13.39  +1.08
LBRT      Liberate Technologies     13.00  +1.14
VANS      Vans Inc.                 17.36  +1.16
BCGI      Boston Communications     16.10  +1.59
XCAR      Xcare.net Inc             13.99  +1.34

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
Q         Qwest Communications      26.00  +1.34
BKS       Barnes & Noble Inc        39.95  +4.30
NTIQ      Netiq Corp                38.85  +1.55
VCI       Valassis Communications   35.47  +1.03
VAL       Valspar Corp              36.33  +1.17
EXPD      Corporate Exec Board Co   42.03  +1.78
WEBX      Webx Communications       21.60  +2.62

  -----------------------------------------
   Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
 -------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
AOL       AOL Time Warner           39.65  -3.34
PGN       Progress Energy           41.16  -1.05
TSG       Sabre Holdings            46.00  -3.15
WPI       Watson Pharmaceuticals    60.50  -2.83
BLDP      Ballard Power Systems     32.02  -2.18
RDA       Reader's Digest Assn Inc  20.20  -1.35

  ------------------------------------------------------------
   Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
  -------------------------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
NBR       Enbridge Inc.             26.04  -0.42
OLDB      Old National Bancorp Inc  26.08  -0.17
EASI      Engineered Support Sys    41.01  -4.21
DQE       Dqe Inc.                  20.80  -1.23


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