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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Monday 08-20-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section one:

Market Wrap: Stock edge higher on light volume
Market Sentiment: Nobody Home
Play-of-the-Day: Integrated Silicon - ISSI (Bullish)
Watch List:. Patterns Galore


-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       08-20-2001          High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10320.50  +79.30 10320.00 10210.40 1.81 bln   1775/1343
NASDAQ   1881.35 + 14.34  1881.62  1854.62 1.86 bln   3726/412
S&P 100   599.00 +  5.13   599.00   593.00   Totals   5501/1755
S&P 500  1171.41 +  9.44  1171.41  1160.94             
RUS 2000  478.88 +  3.22   
DJ TRANS 2840.87 + 15.77 
VIX        25.14 -  1.60    
Put/Call Ratio      1.09
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Stock edge higher on light volume by Jeff Bailey

At this point, equity bulls will take what they can get, but 
today's light volume move higher for the broader market is going 
to have many traders still skeptical that the worst is behind.  
Volume on the New York Stock Exchange was 877 million shares and 
the NASDAQ managed to trade just over 1.1 billion shares.  
Breadth was decidedly positive on the NYSE by an 18 to 13 margin, 
while the NASDAQ was fractionally bullish with 19 stocks 
advancing for every 18 that declined.

Perhaps today's most impressive performance for the major indexes 
was found in the Dow Industrials Average (INDU), which gained 79 
points to close at 79.29 (up 0.77%).  The 0.77% isn't that 
impressive on the cover, but when one considers that Dow 
component General Motors (NYSE:GM) fell more than 5%, today's 
gains for the Dow Industrials could have been considerably more.

General Motors Corp. - last eleven months



Auto stocks as a group had a tough day today.  Analysts warned 
that the auto industry could be on the verge of its first full-
scale downturn since the early 1990's, mostly due to the effects 
of rising unemployment, slowing economic growth and moderating 
consumer confidence.  Shares of Ford Motor (NYSE:F) fell 5.99% to 
close at $20.40, its lowest close in over 3 years.  
DaimlerChrysler (NYSE:DCX) rose fractionally to finish at $43.81, 
after its shares got hit to the downside on Friday.

Tomorrow's Fed meeting and perhaps further stimulus from the Fed 
in the form of a rate cut can't come soon enough for companies 
still having difficult times in the current economic climate.  
The view on Wall Street is unanimous that the Federal Open Market 
Committe "FOMC" will cut rates by at least 25 basis points 
tomorrow, which would mark the seventh rate cut this year.

Views of potential market reaction are as mixed as on of Wendy 
Passamonte's mud pies.  Too much sweetening and a 50 basis point 
cut might have traders thinking "oh no, the Fed sees signs of 
further economic slowing."  There are others that think a Fed 
easing of 25 basis points and statement of "that's it as past 
rate cuts are starting to stimulate a recovery" could have stocks 
finding buyers tomorrow.

Today's mutual fund flows from Trim Tabs estimated that U.S. 
equity funds log approximately $3.7 billion in the three days 
ending August 16th.  Liquidity remained bearish in the past week 
at negative $3.8 billion.

Tomorrow I will once again be keeping an eye on bond YIELDS to 
get a grasp on how the market is viewing potential Fed rate cuts.  
Bonds did see some selling today as YIELDS rose, but not nearly 
enough to get a good round of buying in stocks.  Once the Fed 
decision is announced, I will want to be watching both the stock 
and bond market.  Traders that are tired of getting trapped by 
false rallies in stocks might want to keep and eye on bonds too.  

While I fully expect any type of Fed commentary regarding the end 
of rate cuts, should have some sellers in bonds, what will be 
most important in my mind is any conviction of selling.  Just 
because the Fed might say something about lack of further rate 
cuts, we still need to be cognizant of how the market reacts and 
how much conviction it has in its view of economic recovery.  
Right now the MARKET looks like it is VERY long in bonds and 
seems to like the perceived safety.  With mutual fund outflows 
picking up steam once again, look to the bond market to be the 
sector where cash would rotate from if stocks are to progress 
much higher.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Nobody Home by Jeffrey Canavan

It was a simple plan, really it was.  I was going to step into 
the 80's and purchase a cell phone, and dump my home phone.  My 
first call was to Qwest to see if I could get DSL service if I 
didn't have a home phone.  The answer was a resounding no, and 
even if I had a phone line, I still couldn't get it in my area.  
Not a problem, I'll just get an @Home cable Internet connection.  
Not available in my area.  The plan was starting to fall apart 
when I remembered Sprint ION.  Right there on the website was the 
answer to my problem, fixed wireless technology, no phone line or 
cable connection needed.  Of course I found out that I live in 
some bizarre telcom Bermuda triangle where I can't pick up the 
signal unless I put a 20-foot pole on my roof.  If these telcom 
companies racked up $600 billion in debt to make the world 
Internet ready, why the $@#! can't I get a high-speed internet 
connection.  

I'm not one to revel in the misery of others, but when it was 
reported today that ExciteAtHome (ATHM) currently does not have 
enough cash on hand to operate for the rest of the year, a slight 
grin crossed my face.  Most of ExcitAtHom's problems stem from 
declining ad revenues from their Internet content site and a 
mountain of debt that has been downgraded to triple C.  Throw in 
the prospect of their stock being delisted from the Nasdaq, and 
there is "substantial doubt" about their ability to continue.

North American Telecommunications Index



I'm trying to follow Eric Utley's advice from last Thursday's 
traders corner, and not let my consumer opinions spill over into 
my trading, but the upside for the Telecommunications Index 
(XTC.X) looks limited.  If the index is able to follow through on 
today's 1.05 percent gain, perhaps a 30-point bounce to test the 
base of the double top and 50-day moving average could happen.  
Maybe even a test of four-month downtrend could be in the cards, 
but I'm doubtful of any further advances based on the groups 
relative strength compared to the S&P 500.

Next up we had Lehman Brothers downgrading shares of Ciena to a 
market perform.  Analyst Steve Levy not only questioned the 
stocks ability to provide a "reasonable" return over the next six 
months, but even suggested that further downside was possible.  I 
guess in the networking sector, falling less than the other guys 
is a market perform.

Networking Sector Daily Chart



I thought the Networking Index (NWX.X) had a chance when it fell 
into a two-month base, but by closing below 298 for two straight 
days, I'm starting to agree with Mr. Levy's outlook for 
networking stocks - better returns than the S&P 500 are doubtful 
over the next few months, but tradable bounces should occur.  
Climbing back above 298 would be the first step in the bounce 
process.

*************************Sector Watch****************************

            Support                Close              Resistance
DJIA       |10,200  |      |10320 |      |      |      |  10,600|
NASD       | 1,710  |      |      | 1881 |      |      |   2,125|
S&P 500    | 1,150  |      | 1171 |      |      |      |   1,240|
Rus 2000   |   465  |      |      |  479 |      |      |     495|
Semis      |   535  |      |  561 |      |      |      |     660|
Biotech    |   473  |      |  489 |      |      |      |     550|
Internet   |   121  |      |  127 |      |      |      |     160|
Networking |   300  |      |  292 |      |      |      |     365|
Software   |   166  |      |  167 |      |      |      |     200|
Banking    |   650  |      |      |  675 |      |      |     685|
Retail     |   858  |      |      |  884 |      |      |     920|
Drugs      |   380  |      |      |  396 |      |      |     410|

Support Alerts: Nasdaq, S&P 500, Networking Software
Resistance Alerts:
            ____________________________________________________
           |   Long    |   Short   |   Strength    | Relative   |
           |   Term    |   Term    |     of        | Strength   |
           |   Trend   |   Trend   |    Trend      | vs S&P 500 |
DJIA       |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |     Weak      |  Positive  |
NASD       |  Bearish  |  Bearish  | Strengthening |  Negative  |
S&P 500    |  Bearish  |  Bearish  | Strengthening |    --      |
Rus 2000   |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |     Weak      |  Neutral   |
Semis      |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |     Weak      |  Neutral   |
Biotech    |  Bearish  |  Bearish  | Strengthening |  Neutral   |
Internet   |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |    Strong     |  Negative  |
Networking |  Bearish  |  Bearish  | Strengthening |  Negative  |
Software   |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |    Strong     |  Negative  |
Banking    |  Bullish  |  Bullish  |   Weakening   |  Positive  |
Retail     |  Neutral  |  Bearish  |     Weak      |  Neutral   |
Drugs      |  Neutral  |  Neutral  |     Weak      |  Positive  |

            _____________________________________
           | Short-Term  |          | Point and |
           | Overbought/ | Momentum |   Figure  |
           | Oversold    |          |   Signal  |
DJIA       | Neutral     |  Flat    |   Sell    |
NASD       | Oversold    |  Flat    |   Sell    |
S&P 500    | Neutral     |  Flat    |   Sell    |
Rus 2000   | AP OB       |  Flat    |   Sell    |
Semis      | Oversold    |  Flat    |   Sell    |
Biotech    | Neutral     |  Rising  |   Sell    |
Internet   | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
Networking | Oversold    |  Flat    |   Sell    |
Software   | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
Banking    | Neutral     |  Rising  |   Buy     |
Retail     | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
Drugs      | Neutral     |  Rising  |   Buy     |
             AP OB = Approaching Overbought
             AP OS = Approaching Oversold

*****************************************************************


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

Integrated Silicon - ISSI Close: $15.60 Change: +0.64 Stop: $13.50

Original Comments When Selected on August 16th:

Company Profile:
ISSI designs, develops and markets high-performance memory devices 
including static random access memory (SRAM),specialty dynamic 
random access memory (DRAM), and nonvolatile memory (NVM). 

Fundamentals:
For the 6 months ended 3/31/01, revenues totaled $117.3M, up from 
$53.3M. Net income totaled $29.5M, up from $3.9M. Revenues reflect 
increased unit shipments of SRAM products. Earnings also reflect a 
$22.5M gain on the sale of investments.  Analysts expect company 
earnings to decline from +$0.94 in 2001 to a +$0.63 in 2002.  The 
current P/E ratio is 11.27 and the forward P/E ratio is 16.

Why We Like It:
Three days of increasing upside volume have driven shares of ISSI 
to the brink of short-term resistance just above $15.00.  And 
buying interest has propelled the 20 DMA through the 200 DMA just 
yesterday.  This during a week that has seen most things tech get 
hammered, particularly semiconductors amid negative guidance and 
revised earnings estimates.  But, shares of ISSI have held fast 
and current technical indicators suggest that the stock is strong, 
despite the continued downturn in the sector.  Analysts believe 
that wireless providers may be close to seeing a bottom in their 
sales figures and, with a major portion of the company's business 
coming from this sector via contract manufacturers, ISSI looks 
ripe for the picking.

Take a look at the daily chart for ISSI and you're sure to notice 
that the stock is rather volatile on a percentage basis.  Our 
approach for this recommendation involves the use of a relatively 
tight stop at $13.50 with target prices above the recent highs 
that now represent resistance at $16.00.  The COMPX will likely 
need to cooperate and, if it does, we see a short-term exit price 
just above the $16.00 level.  Longer term, we're looking for a 
move to $18.00 and would consider this the perfect place to exit 
the trade.  Once again, set your stop under the 100 DMA of $13.82 
so as to allow the stock some trading room and prevent the trade 
from stopping out.

Update Comments:
A nice pop in price and volume suggest these shares are ready to 
bust clear of the former $15 resistance level.  Helping the move 
was a bullish day for the SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index). 
With this fair wind from the sector, a 15-percent jump to test 
$18 looks imminent. 

Picked on August 16th $15.02
Earnings Date          10/14 (Unconfirmed)





==========
Watch List
==========

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================


-----------------------------
-- BULLISH STOCKS TO WATCH --
-----------------------------

Popular Inc - BPOP close: 35.94 change: +0.88

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this foreign bank holding company have 
been in a stair-stepping pattern for months and now it is looking 
as if it is getting ready to take another step up.  After 
consolidating for the past few weeks in a bullish wedge pattern 
(higher lows while highs hug $35.00), the shares broke $35 with a 
high volume move to $35.94.  A dip back to the $35 - $35.50 range 
should present a good entry point. 




---

SkyWest - SKYW close: 31.03 change +0.37

Shares of regional airlines have been on a roll.  After a profit-
taking dip from near $34 to $30, the shares have been gathering 
strength with four consecutive positive days.  Volume is 
cooperating as it has risen the past three.  Given the pricey 
valuation of these shares, longer-term investors might want to look 
elsewhere, but for short-term traders it looks as if these shares 
are ready for to make a run at testing the $34.10 52-week high set 
on August 1st.  Look for any continuation of the gathering bullish 
momentum as an entry point. 




---

Xilinx Inc. - XLNX  close: 38.40 change: +0.87

The shares have formed a triangle pattern.  This means a series of 
lower higher and higher lows.  This also means that this is either 
short or long play depending on which way the shares break out of 
the triangle.  A close above $39.50 on a spike in volume means go 
long, a move below $37 on a similar volume pop would suggest a 
short strategy.





-------------------------
-- Continuing to Watch --
-------------------------

Some stocks on the Watch List will be carried over from one day
to the next if they continue to show potential but have not yet
breached the trigger point.  Some stocks have met our conditions 
for a trigger point but other factors hold us back from making it
a full-time stock pick.

Comverse Technology - CMVT - close: 29.12 change: -0.73

UPDATE:  These shares experienced a slight price dip on a steep 
drop in volume.  Given the lack of seller enthusiasm this could be 
an attractive entry point for more aggressive traders.  Consider a 
stop right around $29.  More conservative players should wait for 
our original $30 close. 

Friday, August 17th's write-up:

WHAT TO WATCH:  Two upgrades in two days tends to help a stock's
share price.  It doesn't hurt that the stock is making gains in
the face of a market sell-off either.  Friday morning Merrill 
Lynch upgraded CMVT to an accumulate from a neutral while the day 
before Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to a market outperformer
and set a $39 price target.  Well duh!  $39 is major resistance
after the stock gapped down in mid-July from $39 to open at $26
the next day.  Our potential trigger event to consider a long
play is a close over resistance at $30.




---

NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 83.19 change: -0.58

UPDATE:  Bulls and Bears fought to a near standoff on Monday, but 
not until the shares bounced off support near $80.  The resulting 
candlestick pattern is called a doji, a sign of indecision on the 
part of traders.  A break above today's close over the next couple 
of days would be confirmation the Bulls have won the battle, where 
as a lower close would yield the field to the Bears.  It's make or 
break time.

Friday, August 17th's write-up:

WHAT TO WATCH:  If you've been keeping up on the news, NVDA 
announced their earnings a couple of days ago and the results
were positive.  In addition to their earnings, the company 
raised guidance for the next two years.  Talk about bucking 
the trend...most companies nowadays are avoiding guidance or
retracting previous guidance.  The icing on the cake was a
2:1 stock split to take place on Sept. 11th.  Prospects for NVDA
look great and we want to take part in any split run up.  We'll
be looking for any bounces between $82 and strong support at $80
as our potential trigger to go long the stock.




---

Nokia - NOK - close: 17.25 change: +0.17

UPDATE: No change in outlook, 

Friday, August 17th's write-up:

WHAT TO WATCH:  We put this one at the bottom of the bullish list
because shares could really go either way.  However, we are 
hoping they reverse course in the near future.  The stock is 
obviously oversold but shares have managed to close just over 
strong support near $17 (see mid-July).  This appears to be a 
good place to make a bet that shares may be at a bottom.  The
bad news is picking bottoms can be unhealthy for your portfolio -
especially a stock like NOK because as an ADR shares tend to gap
up or down every day.  This tends to make stops rather hard to
place.  Thus, we chose to put NOK on the watch list again.  Look
for another consolidation at $17 and then a positive close over 
$18 as a potential bullish reversal.





-----------------------------
-- BEARISH STOCKS TO WATCH --
-----------------------------


Broadcom Corp. - BRCM - close: 36.81 change: +0.73

UPDATE: A nothing volume rally suggests the Bears are still 
in control. 

Friday, August 17th's write-up:

WHAT TO WATCH:  Friday ended a painful week for Broadcom.  Monday
looked promising with a move up to 45.37 but by Thursday shares
had already traded under $40 before closing at $41.19.  Then 
Thursday evening Scientific-Atlanta, a manufacturer of digital
set-top boxes warned that business was suffering and forecasts
for 2002 were in jeopardy.  How does this apply to BRCM?  BRCM 
happens to make chips for set-top boxes and thus its own profit 
forecasts are immediately suspect of weakness.  We're going to 
keep an eye on this stock for any failed rallies at $40.  More
nimble and aggressive traders can attempt to chase the stock.




---

American Intl Group - AIG - close: 78.14 change: -1.07

UPDATE: A nice drop, good volume - Showtime!

Friday, August 17th's write-up:

WHAT TO WATCH:  The Insurance sector has been loosing ground 
since July 19th, 2001.  AIG has felt the selling pressure but
it wasn't until Friday that shares broke down beneath strong
support at $80.  Bears are likely to target the next level of
support at $75.  If this stock fits your trading profile 
consider the close under $80 as a potential trigger to go
short.




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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 08-20-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/3629_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Split Trader
  New Plays: none
  Play Updates: none
  Closed Plays: none

Net Bulls
  New Plays: none
  Play Updates: none
  Closed Plays: none

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: none
  Play Updates: none
  Closed Plays: none

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) 


==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

  ---------------------------------
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  ---------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
SZA       Suiza Foods Corp          57.55  +0.68
TOM       Tommy Hilfiger Corp       13.39  +0.64
USFC      Usfreightways Corp        36.32  +0.73
ASW       A.C.L.N. Limited          44.79  +0.79
HBIO      Harvard Bioscience Inc.   11.31  +0.81

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
HUM       Humana Inc                11.89  +1.04
TELM       Telliom Inc              12.60  +1.97
THORThoratec Corp                   18.68  +1.04
MTPMontana Power                     8.48  +1.50
GERNGeron Corp                      15.60  +1.10

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
CVC       Cablevision Systems        48.99  +1.01
TOY       Toys R Us Inc              24.02  +1.62
KKD       Krispy Kreme Doughnuts     34.00  +3.28
CBCF      Citizens Banking Corp      32.75  +1.05
TRI       Triad Hospitals            35.37  +2.25

  -----------------------------------------
   Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
 -------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
GM        General Motors Corp       56.00  -3.47
F         Ford Motor                20.40  -1.30
TV        Grupo Televisa Sa Gdr     36.00  -1.34
FRX       Forest Laboratories       74.97  -3.52
JCI       Johnson Controls Inc      73.49  -2.8

  ------------------------------------------------------------
   Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
  -------------------------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
GSB       Golden State Bancorp      33.80  -0.88
AWK       American Water Works      33.43  -1.16
PLL       Pall Corp                 23.25  -1.29
VVI       Viad Corp                 25.47  -0.53
CBT       Cabot Corp                39.07  -0.33

=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




DISCLAIMER

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