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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 08/21/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Tuesday 08-21-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap: Market spooked by word of caution 
Market Sentiment: Weak
Play-of-the-Day: Administaff - ASF (Bearish)
Watch List: Appears in Monday, Wednesday and Weekend Editions

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-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       8-21-2001          High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10174.14 -145.93 10378.75 10156.02 1.03 bln   1345/1744	
NASDAQ   1831.30 - 50.05  1893.39  1831.28 1.30 bln   1303/2348
S&P 100   590.27 -  8.73   602.95   589.75   Totals   2648/4090
S&P 500  1157.26 - 14.15  1179.85  1156.56             
RUS 2000  472.24 -  6.63   479.65   472.24 
DJ TRANS 2780.51 - 59.91  2841.79  2778.95 
VIX        25.80 +   .66    26.42    24.00 
VXN        52.54 +   .90    52.54    50.43
Put/Call Ratio      0.68
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Market spooked by word of caution by Jeff Bailey

Just prior to today's Fed rate cut announcement, stocks were 
trading at their best levels of the day.  Thirty-minutes later it 
was a different story.  Today's post-Fed announcement action was 
fairly similar to a childhood cereal commercial that still sticks 
in my mind.  

If you can picture two kids sitting at the breakfast table, 
pushing a bowl of cereal back and forth and arguing... "I'm not 
going to try it, you try it."  The bowl gets pushed back across 
the table..."I'm not going to try it, you try it."  Today, the 
market sure didn't seem to like the Fed's comments regarding 
further worry about economic slowing and lack of industrial 
spending.

One chart that has me a little worried about the future is what 
is taking place in shares of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and trading 
there.  Much like my memory of "cereal commercials" I remember a 
time when Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) broke below the $50 level 
(at the time, it was a key level of support).  Today, Goldman 
Sachs (NYSE:GS) traded below $77.

Goldman Sachs Chart - weekly interval



Lately, there's been talk surfacing about the large amount of 
"bad debt" that banks have been selling at a discount as they 
look to raise capital and unload non-performing loans.  Wall 
Street firms like Goldman Sachs (GS) and GE Capital, the 
financing arm of General Electric (NYSE:GE) have been gobbling up 
these loans at what they feel are "bargain basement" prices.  In 
January, FleetBoston Financial (NYSE:FBF) sold $1 billion in 
troubled commercial loans, getting $725 million in cash and a 
$203 million note in return.  Today's action in the share price 
of Goldman Sachs (GS) gives hint that some market participants 
might be thinking "bargain basement" is where Goldman's stock is 
headed should their bets be improperly placed in the at risk 
credit markets.

Should the economy turn around, then shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) 
could be an out-performer to the upside.  For a trader looking 
for a stock that is breaking down, shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) 
fits the bill.  While traders and investors don't necessarily 
have to trade a stock to learn from it, I do think we can 
continue to monitor this stock to get a feel for how the MARKET 
perceives GS, its current business and perhaps the future 
economy.  Right now, I'd have to say it isn't looking good.

Please remember that the above chart is a weekly interval chart 
and is being shown to give a more historical perspective of how 
shares of GS have traded over the longer-term.  I do find the 
breaking of the $77 level in shares of GS and comments from Mr. 
Greenspan about further concern of the slowing economy 
interesting and correlative.  

NASDAQ Composite Chart - last 8 months



Undoubtedly some of those "under-performing loans" that have been 
shifted away from major banks to Wall Street belong to some four-
lettered stocks trading in the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX).  The 
past two weeks has seen the NASDAQ Composite try to put together 
a rally, but the rally fails and a new relative low is achieved.  
Traders need to be careful in their shorting at current levels.  
Today's attempt at a rally before the Fed decision came just 
above our 61.8% retracement level near 1,890.  A good short-
covering rally could take the index to the 1,973 level and 50% 
retracement bracket.  Traders need to understand current upside 
and downside targets when they initiate trades from here.  The 
technique of simply lowering stops in stocks on the bearish play 
list has been working well, while managing any bullish trades 
with a tight stop has been well advised.  I'd continue to 
encourage traders to not try and pick the bottom, but continue to 
assess potential risk/reward in every trade.


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================
Market Sentiment
================

Weak

Risks going forward remain weighted mostly toward conditions that 
may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.  Not 
exactly the words the market was looking for.  We all know that's 
the situation, but it just sounds bad when the Fed says it.  
Perhaps if the Fed would have given investors something to cling 
to, they could have resisted the temptation to sell.  But the Fed 
took a wait and see approach, and some investors decided to do 
likewise, with their money safely on the sidelines.

Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock Daily Chart



The situation isn't looking good for the Nasdaq-100 Tracking 
Stock (AMEX:QQQ).  Every time I think I've found an obscure point 
of support, the Qs quickly crash through it.  If I get creative 
I'm sure I could come up with a support level, but the most solid 
support looks like the April low at $33.60, $3.10 away.  An 
argument could be made that the Qs are due for a snap back rally, 
but determining when, where, and if that will happen is 
difficult.  Riding this lower looks a little easier right now.

S&P 500 Daily Chart



The S&P 500 is clinging to Friday's low at 1,156 for support.  If 
this level is lost before the S&P 500 can climb back above the 
1,177 level, perhaps 1,133 can offer some support.  This level is 
the mid-point of the last two retracement levels, and admittedly 
a bit of a stretch.  Desperate times call for desperate measures.

So why the desperate search for support?  Part of the concern 
stems from bullish percent data that has turned down.  The 
Nasdaq-100 has reverted back into bear confirmed status, which is 
one of the riskiest situations for going long.  The S&P 500 has 
dropped into bull correction status, which alerts bullish traders 
to take defensive action.  The bullish percent for the 5 major 
indices agree with Greenspan, risks going forward remain weighted 
mostly toward conditions that may generate stock market weakness 
in the foreseeable future

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

VIX   25.80
VXN   52.54

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total           .68        566,274       382,976
Equity Only     .59        518,651       305,412
OEX             .89          9,995         8,927
QQQ             .42         47,292        19,764

3 of the four put/call ratios are overly bearish, but options did 
expire on Friday.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          34       -      Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    26      -4      Bear Confirmed
DOW           30      -6      Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       48      -6      Bull Correction  
S&P 100       40      -6      Bull Correction  

Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 
30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------


 5-Day Arms Index  1.50
10-Day Arms Index  1.55
21-Day Arms Index  1.38
55-Day Arms Index  1.29

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1342           1746
NASDAQ    1293           2348

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      201             54
NASDAQ    110            146

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,029
NASDAQ   1,323

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Advisory Sentiment 

Bullish  Bearish  Correction   Net   Change 
  49.0%    29.1%     21.9%    19.9%   +0.9%

A bearish reading of 25% to 30%, combined with a bullish reading 
greater than 55% is typically considered bearish by contrairians.  
A net percentage greater than 30% is also viewed as bearish. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/14/01
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500
No significant changes (refer to graph at the bottom of the page).  
Since this is the most heavily traded contract, it tends to carry 
the most weight.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
7/31/01      335,532   409,352   (73,820)   ( 9.91%)
8/07/01      331,881   406,210   (74,329)   (10.07%)
8/14/01      337,327   411,504   (74,177)   ( 9.91%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 41,144) - 5/1/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
7/31/01      129,648     54,552   75,096     40.77%
8/07/01      128,454     53,191   75,263     41.43%
8/14/01      130,432     55,750   74,682     40.11%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01
 
NASDAQ-100
The net bearish position of commercial traders continues to 
improve.  Breaking the 7,000 level would be even better.
 
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
7/31/01       28,009     39,613   (11,604)  (17.16%)
8/07/01       28,867     38,956   (10,089)  (14.88%)
8/14/01       29,909     37,822   ( 7,913)  (11.68%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
7/31/01       11,216     8,938    2,278      11.30%
8/07/01        9,715     8,098    1,617       9.08%
8/14/01       11,165     9,508    1,657       8.02%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercial are slowly adding more long positions, and improving 
their net bullish stance.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
7/31/01       17,748    13,669    4,079     13.0% 
8/07/01       18,644    13,733    4,911     15.2%
8/14/01       21,652    15,856    5,796     15.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
7/31/01        5,049     9,079    (4,030)   (28.52%)
8/07/01        4,841     9,909    (5,068)   (34.36%)
8/14/01        4,441     8,528    (4,087)   (31.51%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01

----------------------------------------------------------------- 


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================

Administaff - ASF Closed: $29.15 Change: -1.49 Stop: $32.25

Company Description:
ASF provides a comprehensive Personnel Management System, which 
encompasses services such as benefits & payroll administration, 
employee recruiting & selection, performance management and 
training and development services.

Fundamentals: 
For the 3 months ended 3/31/01, sales rose 38% to $1.04B. Net loss 
rose 76% to $4.3M. Results reflect an increase in the average 
number of worksite employees paid per month offset by higher 
compensation and benefit expenses.  For the 2001 fiscal year the 
company's net income is expected to increase 21-percent.  Analysts 
expect company earnings to rise from $0.70 in 2001 to $0.90 in 
2002.  This gives ASF shares a relatively high current P/E of 58 
and a forward P/E of 32.

Why We Like It: 
A slowing U.S economy, reinforced by successive interest rate cuts 
from the Federal Reserve and a continued slowdown in capital 
spending will likely translate into increased unemployment for the 
U.S. workforce.  Certainly you've noticed the sweeping cuts that 
have come forth in recent months from the likes of Ford, Lucent 
Technologies, and a whole host of others.  A reduction in the 
workforce and this pattern of continued weakness should translate 
across to the bottom line.

ASF has lost -15% since topping off at a short-term high of $33.51 
on August 17.  And the sell side volume has been fraught with 
conviction for the last two days.  Today's close was just above the 
lows for the day and with support at the 20 DMA at $28.67, it looks 
as if ASF could test the level tomorrow.  A push through this 
downside support on strong volume and shares could have a long way 
to fall.  Negative bias suggests that a short-term target just 
under $26.00 would be the best place to exit the trade.  Downside 
support reasserts itself just under $25.00, making the neighborhood 
of $23.50 an ideal exit point for those with a longer-term holding 
period.  Protect your short position with a stop loss at $32.25- 
just above the high for today. 

Picked on August 21st at $29.15
Earnings Date              N/A (Not Confirmed)





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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 08-21-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
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In section two:

Split Trader
  Split Announcements: AAON, Inc. - AAON
  New Plays: OM Group Inc.. - OMG (Bullish)
  Play Updates: AAS, AHC, GD, LEN 
  Closed Plays: none

Net Bulls
  New Plays: eBay (Bearish), Adobe Systems (It's Back - Bearish)
  Bullish Play Update: Integrated Silicon Sol. - ISSI 
  Bearish Play Updates: PSFT, VRSN
  Closed Play: Adobe Systems Inc - ADBE (Bearish)

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: Administaff - ASF (Bearish)
  Bullish Play Updates: NEM, PEP
  Bearish Play Updates: BLDP, PCAR
  Closed Plays: none

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) 

=================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

===================
Split Announcements
===================

Tuesday, August 21, 2001, 10:56 AM ET

AAON Declares Stock Split

Heating and air conditioning company AAON, Inc. (Nasdaq: AAON) 
set plans this morning for a 3-for-2 stock split, as approved by 
the Board of Directors. Stockholders will receive one additional 
share for every two shares held as of the payable date of 
September 28. Outstanding shares will increase to 8.7 million and 
the float will effectively rise to 4.7 million.

AAON is thinly traded, with the 3-month average volume at 30 
thousand. Nonetheless, the stock has risen 20.4 percent for the 
year on strengthening volume. The 52-week high of $32.35 was hit 
on August 3 and trading is currently down slightly to $30.50, a 
+0.39 cent increase from yesterday's close.

President and CEO Norman Asbjornson states, "Our continued strong 
capital position, as well as our confidence in the opportunities 
for future growth, underlie the company's decision to declare a 
50 percent stock dividend, which we believe will increase our 
liquidity in the market."

The company reported record second quarter financial results on 
July 17. Revenue increased by 5.4% to $41.5 million while net 
income grew by 14.7% to $3.8 million, or $0.63 per diluted share.

About the Company:

Based in Tulsa, Oklahoma, AAON manufactures commercial rooftop 
air conditioning, heating and heat recovery equipment and air 
conditioning coils.

  


============
ST New Plays
============

  -------------------------
  New Split Candidate Play
  -------------------------

OM Group Inc.. - OMG Close:$64.50 Change:+2.90 Stop:$60.00

Company Description:
OM Group produces metal-based specialty chemicals.  Their products 
(produced from cobalt, copper, platinum, gold, rhodium, and nickel) 
are used in airbags, circuit boards, batteries, paints, and memory 
disks.  In addition, the company makes coloring agents for 
pigments, ceramics, and glass, and specialty powders used for 
alloys in jet engines and to enhance the cutting edges of precision 
tools.  OMG has expanded into precious metals-based materials by 
acquiring Degussa Metals Catalysts Cerdec. 

Fundamentals: 
For the second-quarter ended last June the firm reported record 
earnings and sales per diluted share.  Net sales for the period 
increased to $216.6 million compared to $273.5 million a year ago, 
while net income jumped to $20.2 million, or $.83 per diluted 
share, from $18.4 million, or $.76 per diluted share, in the 2000 
second quarter.  The company predicts that excluding the effects of 
acquisitions, the firm will earn 83 to 87-cents per share in the 
third-quarter and $3.32 to $3.42 for 2001.  The company is 
undervalued when compared to its peers.  It has a forward 2001 P/E 
of 19 and a current one of 22.  The industry average P/E is 27.  In 
addition, it has a PEG of 1.32 as opposed to the industry average 
of 2.76.

Why We Like It: 
How can you not like a stock that so ignored the post-Fed cut 
market slide.  OMG shares not only gained $2.90 on the day, they 
broke through significant resistance at $63.40 and set a new 52-
week high.  This move was not a low volume rally.  The trading 
volume at 113k was well above the 101k daily average.   Considering 
the shares are still undervalued, our $73 price target is a 
reasonable goal.  Our $60 stop is appropriate for short-term 
traders; long-term investors may consider a stop at just below the 
$58.93 200-day moving average. 

Picked on August 21st at $64.50
Earnings Date              N/A (Not Confirmed)





===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  Split Candidate Updates
  -----------------------

AmeriSource - AAS - close: 59.90 change: +1.05 stop: 56.00

Any stock making gains in the face of such a broad market sell-off
is worth taking notice of.  AmeriSource did its best to tackle 
resistance at the $60 mark but the negative conditions proved
too much and shares slid 60 cents from its intraday high.  Volume
was above average and traders should be planning their next
entry point.  Do you wait for a potential dip to the $58.50/$59
area or do you wait for the positive close over $60?  The answer
depends on your aggressiveness but shares of AAS are likely to 
see resistance between $62 and $62.50.  Be patient and wait for
your entry point and if you're looking for a dip, make sure the
stock has begun its bounce first.

Picked on August 17th @ $ 59.00
Gain since picked:      +  0.90
Earnings Date:             N/A  (not confirmed)





---

Amerada Hess - AHC - close: 76.85 change: +0.13 stop: 74.25

The PHLX Oil Services Sector index (OSX) was one of the few 
sectors that closed in the green today.  The rising price of
September's crude oil contracts probably lent it a helping hand.
Shares of AHC also posted a close in the green column but just
barely.  As we discussed in the last update, support was likely
to be found at $76.50, the bottom edge of our 50 cent range.
Traders should still wait for the stock to begin its reversal
and a close over $78 or $79 (based on your own risk assessments).
The 50-dma at 78.25 could also be a hurdle worth waiting for
shares to cross before committing to a long position.  For the
technically inclined, the MACD remains positive but the histogram
has been slipping the past few days and could be forecasting a 
breakdown.  Our stop at $74.25 may be too wide for some traders.
Adjust as you see fit.  In the news, AHC announced that they
had finally completed its acquisition Dallas-based Triton Energy
Limited.

Picked on August 15th @ $ 78.90
Gain since picked:      -  2.05
Earnings Date:             N/A  (not confirmed)




---

General Dynamics - GD - close: 82.30 change: -0.16 stop: 79.00

Another page in the GD-NNS-NOC love triangle unfolded on Monday
as GD extended its tender offer for all outstanding shares of
NNS.  The new deadline is now midnight, August 31, 2001.  GD 
has already accounted for over 20.4 million shares of NNS which
"exceeds the majority of shares outstanding".  As you know, rival
NOC is also trying to purchase NNS and both GD and NOC are 
awaiting government approval on their bids.  We were pleasantly 
surprised to see GD's shares hold up well under the Dow's sell-
off today (Tuesday).  Several technical indicators have turned
or are starting to turn negative so we need to see some upward
movement soon or we'll be tempted to close the play to protect
ourselves.  Recently, support at the $81/$81.50 area has held
and below that should be more strength at $80.  We would still
recommend that traders wait and confirm a new move up before
initiating any new plays.  More aggressive risk takers can 
consider positions now but we would encourage very tight stops
to protect yourselves.

Picked on August 8th @ $  83.85
Gain since picked:      -  1.55
Earnings Date:         10/17/01 (not confirmed)




---

Lennar - LEN - close: 39.30 change: -0.45 stop: 38.00

The window of opportunity on Lennar remains extended for another
couple of days.  Originally, our concept on LEN was to consider 
a long play while the stock was at or near support with a very
tight stop to protect us from any new move down.  This plan still
remains in affect and the range between potential entry and stop
has gotten smaller.  For some of you, this may be exactly what
you're looking for.  Eventually, investors should consider the
Fed's rate cut today as a positive factor for LEN's business 
with lower interest rates spurring more home building.  Today's 
reaction was just market related.  If this stock fits your trade
profile consider it as a potential long play.  However, cautious
investors, and who shouldn't be cautious these days, might want
to wait and see if the Dow will eventually reverse course before
going long on LEN.  If not, you may want to consider a stop even
tighter than ours.  $39 has been the floor the last few days and
one could put a stop just below this level but this wouldn't allow
for much intraday maneuvering.  The 200-dma at 38.90 is 
traditionally a strong area of support.  Consider putting a stop
below the 200-dma.  Or just wait for shares to close positive over
$40 again.

Picked on August 16th @ $  40.66
Gain since picked:       -  1.36
Earnings Date:          09/19/01 (not confirmed)





==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  ---------------
  New Short Play
  ---------------

eBay Inc. - EBAY Close:$57.92 Change:-2.58 Stop:$63.00

Company Description:
Pierre Omidyar created an Internet flea market called Auction Web in 
1995 because he was inspired by his future wife's interest in 
collecting Pez dispensers.  His site allowed sellers to list items 
for sale and buyers to bid on items of interest.  In 1997 he renamed 
the site eBay and was 800,000 auctions a day.  Now the company has 
over 3 million items listed for sale in more than 4,500 categories 
and is expanding its presence internationally.  It created eBay Japan 
in 2000 and moved into Europe through its recently acquired French 
auction house iBazar.  It also has launched Canadian and Austrian 
sites and purchased an interest in car seller Autotrader.com.  The 
company earns money through advertising and by charging a small fee 
for every item sold.  These small fees have added up into a healthy 
and growing bottom line.   

Fundamentals: 
Last year the company earned 21-cents per share.  For 2001, analysts 
expect earnings to increase 114-percent over 2000 to 45-cents per 
share and revenue to grow 57-percent to $681 million.  They see this 
hyper-growth continuing in 2002 with consensus estimates of an 
additional 68-percent jump in earnings to 72-cents a share on a 39-
percent rise in revenue to $970 million.  

eBay is not a cheap stock.  Investors have rewarded their growth by 
giving its shares a current P/E of 276 and a forward 2001 one of 129.

Why We Like It: 
eBAY has been one of the miracle Internet stocks, able to float above 
the tech carnage with a growth business model that seemed unfazed by 
economic condition.  However, for the first time there may be cracks 
forming in the bullish juggernaut.  eBay reported that the growth in 
total auction listings are beginning to slow.  The second quarter of 
2001 saw a 10-precent jump in auction from the first quarter.  In 
2000, the comparable period saw a 17-percent increase.  In addition, 
a survey of eBay auctions in the first five months of the year by 
TIAS.com, shows that collectable prices have decreased an average of 
40-percent to $50 from $84.  Since eBay earns a fee based on the sale 
price of the items and is responsible for 4 to 8-percent of total US 
collectable trading this is a worrisome trend.  Taken as a whole, 
traders are beginning to question whether the eBay can maintain its 
stellar growth rate.  And if it can't maintain its growth, it can't 
maintain its astronomical valuation. 

The $59 support level has held like the rock of Gibraltar since last 
being penetrated to the upside in mid-May.  On Tuesday, the negative 
market reaction to the Fed's pessimistic economic outlook finally 
pushed Ebay shares through this critical support.  Volume was well 
above average confirming the bearish move.  Underneath this support 
is a lot of air.  A test of the next support level at $55 appears to 
be a given.  We think a test of $50 is a good possibility.  If the 
bearish momentum really gets cranked up, our point and figure 
analysis produced a longer-term bearish price target of $38.  We will 
start this play with a stop at $63, which is just above Tuesday's $62 
session high.

Picked on August 21st at $57.92
Earnings Date              N/A (Not Confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------------

Integrated Silicon Sol. - ISSI - cls: 15.05 chg: -0.55 stop: 13.75

The late afternoon sell-off in the SOX, after the FOMC report,
was just too much for ISSI.  As of Monday's close and for most
of today, the play had turned positive for us.  The 24 point 
drop in the SOX weighed heavily on ISSI but fortunately shares
stopped north of $15.  Bulls are obviously hoping that the 
SOX can reverse course and we might get a bounce soon as the
intraday low on July 25th was 530.  The SOX closed at 536 today.
The bad news is this is just hope at this point.  ISSI continues
to show relative strength but if the sector is going to get
pounded then bullish players should probably sit on the sidelines.
A breakdown under $15 would be negative for ISSI shareholders but
optimistic investors can look for a potential bounce at $14.50.
Until then we recommend patience.

Picked on August 16th @ $15.10
Gain since picked:      - 0.05
Earnings Date:             N/A  





  -----------------------
  NB Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------------

PeopleSoft - PSFT - close: 34.11 change: -1.83 stop: 37.50 *new*

After Friday's sell-off the odds of an oversold bounce in PSFT
appeared high.  Surprisingly, the stock failed to participate in
the bounce in the GSO index in late Monday's session.  PSFT did
trade a little higher this morning but the bears took control
again when the markets tanked on the Fed's announcement.  It is
likely that the shorts are targeting $30 as the next level of
major support but considering the oversold condition of the stock
any significant rally in the NASDAQ could spook bears to cover
their shorts in PSFT.  One could argue that there is "support"
in PSFT at $33, $32 and $31 if you looked at previous intraday
lows from November through January.  Any of these levels might
be a good chance for traders to lock in some profits and take
some money off the table.  We're going to lower our stop to
$37.50 in case the bulls do take a stab at a reversal.  This may
be too wide for some traders.  If you feel more comfortable, 
feel free to set yours tighter just be prepared to be stopped
out.

Picked on August 7th @ $42.38
Gain since picked:     + 8.27
Earnings Date:           N/A  




---

VeriSign - VRSN - close: 43.20 change: -1.28 stop: 46.00 *new*

Shares of VRSN just collapsed on Monday under rumors that the 
company was loosing market-share in the domain registration 
business.  The low on Monday was under $42 giving PremierInvestor
players a potential 7 point gain at the low.  A late day rally in 
the techs saw VRSN pair its losses.  The stock traded higher this
morning but saw selling pressure again before the Fed's 
announcement.  The stock continues to trade inside its downward
channel.  We would expect a bounce in VRSN at 41.50 unless the
NASDAQ posts a bounce first.  Consider taking some money off the
table if you're profitable as the stock remains extremely oversold
and short covering could provoke upside rallies.  We are going to 
lower our stop to $46.00 which is above today's intraday high.

Picked on August 14th @ $48.98
Gain since picked:      + 5.78
Earnings Date:            N/A  





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Adobe Systems Inc - ADBE - close: 33.45 change: -0.78 stop: 35.25

The late day bounce in the GSO software index on Monday carried
over into Tuesday morning's trading.  Shares of ADBE surprised us
by trading over what should have been resistance at $35.  Of course
we were not surprised to see the stock tank with the GSO as 
investors sold the news on the Fed's announcement.  Due to the 
late day weakness we're going to reinitiate this short as a new
play.  Look for any new stops and targets for ADBE as a new
short play in tonight's letter.

Picked on August 17th @ $32.76
Gain since picked:      - 2.49
Earnings Date:             N/A  





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  ---------------
  New Short Plays
  ---------------

Administaff - ASF Closed: $29.15 Change: -1.49 Stop: $32.25

Company Description:
ASF provides a comprehensive Personnel Management System, which 
encompasses services such as benefits & payroll administration, 
employee recruiting & selection, performance management and 
training and development services.

Fundamentals: 
For the 3 months ended 3/31/01, sales rose 38% to $1.04B. Net loss 
rose 76% to $4.3M. Results reflect an increase in the average 
number of worksite employees paid per month offset by higher 
compensation and benefit expenses.  For the 2001 fiscal year the 
company's net income is expected to increase 21-percent.  Analysts 
expect company earnings to rise from $0.70 in 2001 to $0.90 in 
2002.  This gives ASF shares a relatively high current P/E of 58 
and a forward P/E of 32.

Why We Like It: 
A slowing U.S economy, reinforced by successive interest rate cuts 
from the Federal Reserve and a continued slowdown in capital 
spending will likely translate into increased unemployment for the 
U.S. workforce.  Certainly you've noticed the sweeping cuts that 
have come forth in recent months from the likes of Ford, Lucent 
Technologies, and a whole host of others.  A reduction in the 
workforce and this pattern of continued weakness should translate 
across to the bottom line.

ASF has lost -15% since topping off at a short-term high of $33.51 
on August 17.  And the sell side volume has been fraught with 
conviction for the last two days.  Today's close was just above the 
lows for the day and with support at the 20 DMA at $28.67, it looks 
as if ASF could test the level tomorrow.  A push through this 
downside support on strong volume and shares could have a long way 
to fall.  Negative bias suggests that a short-term target just 
under $26.00 would be the best place to exit the trade.  Downside 
support reasserts itself just under $25.00, making the neighborhood 
of $23.50 an ideal exit point for those with a longer-term holding 
period.  Protect your short position with a stop loss at $32.25- 
just above the high for today. 

Picked on August 21st at $29.15
Earnings Date              N/A (Not Confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Long Play Updates
  -----------------

Newmont Mining NEM Close:$21.15 Gain:+0.04 Stop:$20.40

Gold stocks looked in trouble today, but there's nothing like a 
good old fashioned sell off to chase investors into the security 
of Gold.  On Monday Newmont dipped, but not far enough to trigger 
our stop.  Today the stock was also lower, but rallied into the 
close, and finished up 4 cents.  

Picked on July 14th at $20.50
Gain since picked:      +0.65
Earnings Date            11/1/01 (unconfirmed)




---

Pepsi PEP Close:$46.05 Gain:-0.48 Stop:$45.00

Pepsi closed down 48 cents today, but closed above yesterday's 
low.  Near-term support should be $46, and near-term resistance 
$47.  We are going to leave our stop at $45, just below the 50 
and 200-day moving average.  This stop keeps our risk to 66 
cents, and still gives Pepsi some room to move if it loses its 
fizzle in the short-term.

Picked on August 10th at $45.66
Gain since picked:        +0.39
Earnings Date               N/A





  ------------------
  Short Play Updates
  ------------------

Ballard Power BLDP Close:$22.35 Gain:-0.90 Stop:$23.85 NEW

Ballard Power continues to lose power, and fell another 90 cents 
today.  With the stock now sitting at support dating back to 
November of 1999, we are going to cinch down our stop to $23.85 
to avoid giving up too much of our gains.  

Picked on August 14th at $32.02
Gain since picked:        +9.67
Earnings Date            11/16/01 (unconfirmed)




---

PACCAR PCAR Close:$53.47 Gain:-2.53 Stop:$59.00

PACCAR crashed through the 50-day moving average today like one 
of the Kenworth trucks it builds.  Perhaps the 200-day moving 
average at $49.86 can slow down the decline, hopefully not.  
There are some previous highs around $52.30 that might provide 
some speed bumps on the way down.

Picked on August 17th at $55.46
Gain since picked:        +1.99
Earnings Date              N/A





==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

  ---------------------------------
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  ---------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
EQR       Equity Resident Property  60.40  +0.91
AEE       Ameren Corp               40.55  +0.54
RJR       Rj Reynolds Tobacco       55.00  +0.90
PBCT      Peoples Bank Bridgpt      27.73  +0.55
RNR       Renaissance Holdings      73.68  +1.58

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
CTEC      Cholestech Corp           11.22  +1.12

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
K         Kellog Co                 33.10  +1.33
GDT       Guidant Corp              35.00  +3.40
WPP       Wpp Group Plc Adr         50.00  +1.95
TEVA      Teva Pharm Ind            72.56  +1.36
PBG       Pepsi Bottling Group      44.85  +1.61

  -----------------------------------------
   Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
 -------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
TGT       Target Corp               35.36  -1.74
KYO       Kyocera                   60.95  -3.25
FRX       Forest Laboratories       72.93  -2.04
TRW       TRW Inc.                  38.50  -1.74
CAN       Cna Financial Corp        28.71  -1.19

  ------------------------------------------------------------
   Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
  -------------------------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
WIN       Winn-Dixie Stores         23.19  -0.21
BGP       Borders Group Inc         22.65  -1.32
CHZ       Chittenden Corp           34.20  -0.85
CHE       Chemed Corp               30.65  -0.44

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