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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 08/24/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-24-2001
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap: As Ballard Power goes, so goes the NASDAQ?
Market Sentiment: The House That Cisco Built 
Play-of-the-Day: TCF Financial  - TCB (Bearish)
Watch List: Catering to the Crowd

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U.S. Market Numbers
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
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        WE 8-24          WE 8-17          WE 8-10           WE 8-3
DOW    10423.17 +182.39 10240.78 -175.47 10416.25 - 96.53  + 96.11
Nasdaq  1916.80 + 49.79  1867.01 - 89.24  1956.47 -109.86  + 36.60
S&P-100  606.71 + 12.84   593.87 - 17.54   611.41 - 12.24  +  3.39
S&P-500 1184.93 + 22.96  1161.97 - 28.19  1190.16 - 24.19  +  8.42
W5000  10948.41 +188.32 10760.09 -234.36 10994.45 -248.49  + 76.94
RUT      480.81 +  5.16   475.65 +   .13   475.52 - 11.63  +  2.13
TRAN    2854.39 + 29.74  2824.65 - 36.12  2860.77 - 53.25  +  4.14
VIX       22.29 -  4.45    26.74 +  3.93    22.81 +   .42  -  2.34
VXN       47.70 -  4.32    52.02 +  3.50    48.52
TRIN        .70             2.67             1.03
TICK        351              201
Put/Call    .56             1.07              .72              .76
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===========
Market Wrap
===========

As Ballard Power goes, so goes the NASDAQ? by Jeff Bailey 

Far be it to say that Ballard Power Systems (NASDAQ:BLDP) is a 
bellwether NASDAQ stock, but subscribers of PremierInvestor.net 
should finally have been stopped out of this bearish play from 
our August 14th play date at $32.02, when the stock traded $22.50 
today.  

It's funny, but I think there's something to be said between the 
correlation of today's "stopping out" of Ballard Power Systems 
(BLDP) and today's broader market rally.  The correlation?  It 
was time for the market to rally, and time to book some handsome 
gains on a short play that produced big gains.  But that's not 
it.  Check out the retracement bracket on Ballard Power's chart.  
Coincidence?

Ballard Power Systems - last 8 months



Once a trade is closed (successful or unsuccessful result) the 
trade should be reviewed.  This is when the trader learns the 
most and further instills good habits and can help eliminate 
future mistakes.  Jon Farnlof picked this short play and I take 
no credit.  All I'm doing here is pointing out how the "fitted" 
retracement worked so well and perhaps had traders systematically 
moving down their stops each day after initiating their short.  
Isn't it interesting how this stock "decided" to eventually firm 
up at our 0% retracement bracket at $20 and eventually trigger 
our stop at $22.50?  While PremierInvestor.net only profiled this 
stock just recently, look how this stock has traded inside of the 
retracement bracket and at different levels.  Would I think about 
trading this stock long from here?  NO WAY!  I don't like trying 
to trade long in stocks where I could have just recently booked a 
$9.52 gain or roughly 29% on a bearish play.  This stock is weak 
and way too much success has been had by bears.  I have a feeling 
they'll be back, and so perhaps will we.  Now what I'd do is 
this.  Remember the success and look for opportunity.  Since I 
(and hopefully you) classify this stock as weak, I can use its 
further trading activity to give me a feel for the market.  I can 
now begin correlating some levels from BLDP with that of the 
NASDAQ.  Hey... the stock was up 9% today (BIG DIVERGENCE FROM 
PAST SEVEN SESSIONS) and the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) was up 4% 
(BIG DIVERGENCE FROM PAST SESSIONS).  Levels to monitor for BLDP 
as potential shorting opportunities are $27.63 and $35.21.  Is 
$20 the bottom?  I'm not sure, but neither are market makers.  I 
think the only reason that BLDP finally put in a gain today and 
stopped traders out was that the stock finally reached a level 
where inventory levels needed to be adjusted by market makers 
based on market conditions.  In essence, it was simply time to 
buy back some short-inventory and the volume pickup from "panic 
sellers" gave ample opportunity.

Could it be that other stocks were also in a similar state?  I 
don't think Cisco System's (NASDAQ:CSCO) reorganization plans 
were a reason for the markets to rally.  Sure, Mr. Chambers' 
comments about signs of industry firming didn't hurt the 
technology rally, but we did note that shares of Ciena 
(NASDAQ:CIEN) hardly budged today.  If the MARKET felt a bottom 
was definite for networking stocks based on Mr. Chambers' 
comments, then shares of CIEN should have set the world on fire.  
You, I and everyone in the MARKET knows the stock is being added 
to the S&P 500 and that should create DEMAND for the stock.  The 
problem?  There's probably a lot of supply just waiting to sell 
into that demand and smart money knows it!  If you can, go back 
and read Wednesday's market wrap.  What did we talk about?

Here's why reviewing past observations and taking notes is so 
darned important.  We don't have an archive section on the site 
just so I (Jeff Bailey) can go back and point out my successes 
(because there are "failures" too, which I point out also, VTSS 
as an example).  

Now, lets NOT go back and review Ciena's chart.  Nothing has 
really happened there anyway.  We didn't think anything was going 
to happen for several sessions anyway did we?  Let's do this 
though.  Remember how we talked about PMC-Sierra (NASDAQ:PMCS) in 
that very same August 22nd "Market Wrap" as a comparable stock 
that had been recently added to the S&P 500?  We actually thought 
that stock was a better bullish trade at $31.92 than CIEN.  The 
main reasons were the technicals (upward trend and stock had 
recently tested the old bearish trend as support).  Now... let's 
add retracement to PMCS's chart and see if we can't figure out 
what the heck this stock will tell us about the future.  If 
you're not long PMCS at $32, imaging that you are just to put 
yourself into the mindset of the market maker and what you might 
do with the stock from here at $34.67.

Now... pay close attention.  I'm going to refer to the "sucker 
move" or "head fake" that market makers have implemented in the 
past on PMCS to sucker in some buyers and sellers to create 
liquidity for their own needs.  I'm going to now set up the 
scenario for how I think the stock trades in coming sessions, 
what to look for and what it means for the market.  If we can get 
inside the mindset of the market makers and trade like them, then 
we may be able to sniff out market direction shorter-term.  

First things first.  I believe market makers "manipulate" stocks 
for their own good and to get a feel for order flow.  You've 
heard of "bull traps" (a stock moves sharply higher above a 
resistance level and sucks in a bunch of bullish traders, then 
quickly moves lower and traps them in the stock at a loss) and 
"bear traps" (a stock dips below a level of perceived support, 
traps in a bunch of shorts or causes a long to sell his stock, 
then reverses higher).  Both of these moves creates added 
liquidity for market makers and gives them a good feel for order 
flow.

What we're going to do, is identify what I feel are spots where 
market makers put the dupe on traders and suckered them in (long 
and short).  Yes, this is all hindsight, but it helps set up our 
trading scenario.  All you and I do is play along with the game, 
learn from past mistakes, and get the heck out with a gain.  
Again... if your long at $32 this is not a game, but if your not 
long, imagine that you are to get a feel for things.

PMC-Sierra, Inc. - last 6 months



I've "circled" different areas on the retracement bracket where I 
think market makers have "suckered" in traders and built 
liquidity for their inventory as they've seen fit.  The "circles" 
can be envisioned as the market makers sitting high in his/her 
tower wearing a big smile and saying, "sucker... I gotcha!"  This 
is what sets up our scenario of where we look to sell, and 
perhaps also "call the market."  

My scenario goes like this.  If a trader is long at $32, our 
original target was a re-visit to the $37 level.  Perhaps I 
should have circled that little dip just recently under the 
$30.28 as a "gotcha" also.  

Now, see that blank circle with the question mark (?) labeled 
"sell?"  That's where a trader currently is targeting and looking 
to sell.  He/she may base this on past trading at or near this 
level.  Let's roll forward and imagine that PMCS hits our target 
of 61.8% retracement of $37.18.  Most traders are happy with a 
15% gain (less commissions) in a month, let alone several trading 
days.  Heck, today's gain of 8.75% wasn't a bad day!

Ok... at $37, lets imagine that we sell for a profit.  What's the 
worst thing that happens after that?  All I can think of is that 
I have to pay capital gains and the stock shoots higher to 80.9% 
retracement of 42.76!  Let's also say, that by selling at the $37 
level, a trader is making a market call that the market will not 
go higher also.

If I don't like that scenario, then I can do what?  How about 
move my stop up to $32.50, just under today's low (to at least 
try and manage break-even in the trade, but give the stock a 
chance to continue on to $42.76) and at the same time, we're 
managing this trade just as we did the Ballard Power (BLDP) 
trade.  Just inching the stop along day after day, until the 
stock runs its course and tells us to sell.  If I follow this 
scenario, then I'm taking a more bullish bias to the market 
thinking that the market is bullish and that bullish bias is 
going to have the stock trading higher to my 80.9% retracement 
level.

Now, this seems so frustrating to subscriber at times.  Many just 
want me to make a market call.  I can do this (and I will), but 
it is so much easier to simply lay out two trading scenarios, 
then implement them as you the subscriber see fit.  Then as time 
progresses, I run my system of checks and balances against the 
scenario to make sure everything is going to plan.

Now for my market call.  Since I think PMCS has a chance to trade 
the $37 level, then I must be thinking that we've got some upside 
left in the NASDAQ.  From Monday to Wednesday, I think we see 
further gains from today's close.  I don't think we'll see 
another BIG day like we saw today.

What I'll be watching is this.  Bond YIELDs of course.  For 
further strength for stocks, I want to see continued selling in 
bonds and YIELDS to rise.  Not much new here, but this is 
probably my most important indicator.  If bond YIELDS are red and 
PMCS is trading $37, then a short-term trader is locking in gains 
and saying, "thanks for the trade and I'm out'a here."

What I also want to be measuring is the PERCENTAGE gains or 
losses of the Biotechnology Index (BTK.X), Semiconductor Index 
(SOX.X) and Software Index (GSO.X) against each other.  Just as 
we've recently measured the relative strength of each of these 
indexes against the broader S&P 500 and each other, we can get a 
feel for how things shape up on a daily basis.

Since I've characterized the Biotechs and Semiconductor sectors 
as "strong" relative to the market, then I want to see both of 
these sectors stay near the top of the gains board relative to 
the three, for me to continue to think bullish.  Today that BTK.X 
lagged a bit (up 3.47%) and the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) lead 
all sectors with a 6.16% gain, while the Software Index (GSO.X) 
was right behind with a 6.11% gain.

Since my August 10th commentary of how I believed that the 
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) would outperform the Software Index 
(GSO.X) that analysis has been accurate.  Today's action and 
close percentage gains between the two tells me that there was a 
lot of shorts looking to cover some positions in the beaten down 
Software sector and some risky bulls also came into the group.

The bit of lag in the Biotech's (BTK.X), relative to the SOX.X 
and GSO.X percentage gains, gives hint that there are still some 
unsure market participants that probably aren't believers at this 
point.  I don't blame them.  I've only been recommending that 
traders take 1/2 positions and that's not overly bullish is it?  
Right now, my bullish near-term target on the BTK.X is 564, which 
was established by our retracement bracket level and rolling 200-
day MA currently at 568.

My Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) target is currently 615, which is 
correlates nicely with our 19.1% retracement and 200-day MA 
currently at 616.  Today we achieved the 50-day MA of 591, and 
that was a good accomplishment in my book.  Support in a strong 
market environment should now be near 38.2% retracement of 577.

The GSO.X.  Can you believe it?  Just as we rolled down 
retracement not long ago using our "fitting" technique (top 
244.69, bottom 105.07) and this silly index managed to find 
support near our 61.8% retracement of $158.40 and has bounce 
back, but still under the 50% retracement level of $174.88.  
Since I feel that this sector is weak, relative to the SPX, then 
I'm looking for some resistance at the 175 level (50% 
retracement).  If this index can make a bold move above that 
level, then I begin to think that bears are worried about 
something and stepping up their buying as they perhaps begin 
assessing risk to 191 and 38.2% retracement.  It's this type of 
action in a weak sector that will help us determine the strength 
of the current rally.

GSTI Software Index - last 6 months



Hmmm.... trader were stopped out of PeopleSoft (NASDAQ:PSFT) for 
a decent gain yesterday.  The above chart is missing Thursday's 
bar (some type of Q-charts error) but isn't it interesting how 
the GSO.X seemed to find some support at our fitted retracement 
level near 158?  Now we'll monitor the 175 area for resistance as 
well as that nasty downward trend.  We can perhaps measure some 
strength/weakness in this group just as we did on the downward 
move.

As I try to put all of this activity together, I can come up with 
no other reason that there were a lot of stocks that must have 
been at some market maker support levels, where inventories had 
to be corrected.  Perhaps the Cisco Systems' (CSCO) news just 
made the decision making that much easier.  However, if we were 
simply trading the levels and identifying levels as well as 
risk/reward from the bullish and bearish trader's perspective, 
then all is well.

I remember not long ago when we "rolled down" retracement in the 
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X).  I think it was on July 25th.  
Remember how that index seeming found support at the 530 level 
that day and then rallied like a cat on fire for 6 trading 
sessions?  I sure do.  Everything is possible from here on out 
and the Software stocks could catch fire also, but it all depends 
on how bullish the market wants to get.  Never underestimate the 
power of a rally.  On July 26th, there's no way I was going to 
say, "the SOX.X will rally for 6 sessions from 550 to 657 and 
gain nearly 20%."  

Today, I'm not going to say, "the GSO.X will rally from 170.28 to 
244 and gain nearly 43% in 6 sessions."  But I've learned over 
the years, "Forget what you believe or don't believe, and simply 
trade what you observe."  While I won't be focusing on trading 
software stocks, you can imagine what my be taking place in 
semiconductor stocks or biotech stocks should the software sector 
be surging.  At the same time, this is the group that I must be 
looking for weakness first.  Most often, the weak are the first 
to fall.

If you believe, like I do, that strong sectors/stocks lead, then 
we have our scenario in place, and good levels to be monitoring 
in the coming sessions.  We've had a good week of trading and 
it's now time to rest.  Next week we're going to be put to the 
test and we will have to be sharp!  Have a great weekend!


=========================
Market Sentiment (Bearish)
=========================

The House That Cisco Built by Jeffrey Canavan

Cisco got the party started, and surging new homes helped to keep 
it going.  Durable goods tried to crash the party, but were 
turned back at the door.  Stocks whooped it up into the wee hours 
of the afternoon, and actually managed to hold on to their gains.

Nasdaq Composite Daily Chart



That puts the Nasdaq back above the 61.8% retracement and the 
psychological 1,900 level.  The big psychological test is 2,000, 
but before we get there the Nasdaq has some work to do.  Monday's 
task is taking out prior support at 1,940.  Climbing above 1974 
might be too much to ask of Monday, so that will be Tuesday's 
job.  By Wednesday the 50-day moving average and May downtrend 
will have to be dealt with.

Dow Jones Industrial Daily Chart



That Dow hasn't fallen quite as far, and has less work to do on 
the way up.  Today the index took care of the May downtrend, but 
came up just shy of taking the 50-day moving average out of the 
picture.  If the Dow can put two nice days together at the 
beginning of the week, perhaps it can make a run at 10,600.  To 
do that it will have to fight trough the 200-day moving average, 
and 38.2% retracement.

That's my best-case bullish scenario for the first part of next 
week.  Monday has a chance for some follow through, since only 
existing home sales stands in its way.  Tuesday gets a little 
trickier with consumer confidence numbers being released.  
Wednesday is a crapshoot, with personal consumption data being 
released, as well as revised second quarter GDP.  Originally GDP 
came in at 0.7%, well below expectations, and estimates for 
revised GDP have been lowered to zero growth.  Thursday and 
Friday don't look good, since they are the last two days of 
August.  Over the past five years, the Dow has lost an average of 
229.78 points the last two days of August.  

So there you have it.  The markets rally in first half of the 
week and sell off in the later half, with Wednesday being the 
crucial day as resistance and economic data meet.  It sounds 
simple enough, but the markets have been anything but simple 
lately.  Throw in the fact volume could be lower than normal, 
even for summer, due to market participates taking vacation ahead 
of the Labor Day weekend, and it gets even trickier.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility
The VIX and VXN are starting to fall back down to those fearless 
levels where bulls get burnt.

VIX   22.29
VXN   47.67

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          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total           .56        584,554       325,511
Equity Only     .48        532,354       256,778
OEX             .84         15,567        13,108
QQQ             .82         42,410        34,779

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Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          34       -      Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    24       -      Bear Confirmed
DOW           30       -      Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       48       -      Bull Correction  
S&P 100       38       -      Bull Correction  

Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 
30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------


 5-Day Arms Index  1.03
10-Day Arms Index  1.28
21-Day Arms Index  1.25
55-Day Arms Index  1.28

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

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        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1940           1119
NASDAQ    2268           1340

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      145             37
NASDAQ     63             88

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,058
NASDAQ   1,492
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Advisory Sentiment 

Bullish  Bearish  Correction   Net   Change 
  49.0%    29.1%     21.9%    19.9%   +0.9%

A bearish reading of 25% to 30%, combined with a bullish reading 
greater than 55% is typically considered bearish by contrairians.  
A net percentage greater than 30% is also viewed as bearish. 

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Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/21/01
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500
Flat line.  Commercials' net position hasn't budged in three 
weeks.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
8/07/01      331,881   406,210   (74,329)   (10.07%)
8/14/01      337,327   411,504   (74,177)   ( 9.91%)
8/21/01      342,332   416,372   (74,040)   ( 9.76%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 41,144) - 5/1/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
8/07/01      128,454     53,191   75,263     41.43%
8/14/01      130,432     55,750   74,682     40.11%
8/21/01      134,280     58,785   75,495     39.10%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01
 
NASDAQ-100
Commercials have gotten slightly more bearish.  It looks like a 
range is setting up between (8,000) and (10,000). See chart 
below.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
8/07/01       28,867     38,956   (10,089)  (14.88%)
8/14/01       29,909     37,822   ( 7,913)  (11.68%)
8/21/01       30,348     38,964   ( 8,616)  (12.43%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
8/07/01        9,715     8,098    1,617       9.08%
8/14/01       11,165     9,508    1,657       8.02%
8/21/01       10,499     7,576    2,923      16.17%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials are closing in on their most bullish reading of the 
year, 8,925 set back on May 22nd.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
8/07/01       18,644    13,733    4,911     15.2%
8/14/01       21,652    15,856    5,796     15.5%
8/21/01       22,710    14,625    8,085     21.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
8/07/01        4,841     9,909    (5,068)   (34.36%)
8/14/01        4,441     8,528    (4,087)   (31.51%)
8/21/01        5,059    10,410    (5,351)   (34.59%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01

COT Commercial Net Position Charts



----------------------------------------------------------------- 


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

TCF Financial  - TCB Close:$47.60 change:-2.00 Stop:$51.00

Company Description:
TCF Financial is the holding company for TCF National Bank and TCF 
National Bank Colorado.  They offer consumer and banking services 
through more than 350 branch offices in Colorado, Illinois, 
Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. 

Fundamentals: 
Analysts project the company will earn $2.66 per share on revenue 
of $839 million in 2001 and $3.05 per share in 2002.  Last year, 
the firm earned $2.35 per share of revenue of $827 million.  TCB 
shares have a current P/E of 18 and a forward 2002 one of 16.  The 
industry average is 16.

Why We Like It: 
Regional banks have been on quite a roll.  A declining interest 
rate environment, strong demand for refinancing mortgages and 
healthy home sales have driven shares to new heights.  TCB shares 
have moved like many of its peers - up.  They have climbed from 
$32.81 on March 22nd to a 52-week high of $51.12 on August 21st.  
However all good things must come to an end and the stock charts of 
many regional banks including TCB are looking like an upside down 
fishhook.  Since reaching their new high TCB shares have begun to 
weaken with three consecutive down days.  Friday's $2.00 drop was a 
big one as it was the largest one-day loss of the year and closed 
below significant support at $47.78.  The shares of many regional 
banks are looking overextended due to their long bull run in the 
face of a housing market that is showing the first signs of 
weakening.  There is a lot of air underneath these shares and a 
drop to support at $42 or the $14.42 200-day moving average is a 
reasonable expectation.  Traders can wait for further confirmation 
of bearish momentum by waiting for a close below today's session 
low of $47.12 before taking a position.  We are starting this play 
with a stop at $51.00. 

Picked on August 24th at $47.60
Earnings Date              N/A (Not Confirmed)





==========
Watch List
==========

Schering Plough - SGP - close: 39.85 change: +0.82

WHAT TO WATCH:  SGP and the DRG.X (Drug Index) have been developing
similar chart patterns.  The DRG is butting up against resistance
at 400 and SGP looks like it's just itching to get over the $40
level.  Chart readers should notice that $40 has been steep 
resistance for SGP multiple times and a close over this level 
could prelude a nice move upward.  Doing a little further research
and you might notice that SGP has some resistance at $47/$48 on
the Point and Figure chart but we see resistance soon than that
at the stock's 200-dma or 43.50.




---

LM Ericsson Telephone - ERICY - close: 5.74 change: +0.55

WHAT TO WATCH:  European ADRs enjoyed the ride on Friday with many
giving the applause to CSCO's comments Thursday evening.  ERICY
gained over 10% and closed over significant resistance at 5.60 to
5.70.  There were also rumors floating around that ERICY might be
in negotiations with Sony (SNE) on a yet to be announced joint
venture.  From a technical perspective, it looks like Friday's
close broke the neckline on an upside down head-and-shoulders 
formation.  This would be a pretty bullish development for those
looking to go long the stock on a trading basis.  If we were to
speculate our three to five week target would be $7.00 to $7.50.




---

VERITAS Software - VRTS - close: 35.49 change: +4.17

WHAT TO WATCH:  Whoa Nellie!  Odds are good that Friday's action 
was driven by a panicked round of short covering.  We would be too
with the software sector climbing voraciously throughout the day.
The +13% gain in VRTS makes this one too hot to chase for most
of us.  Hey, that's why it's on the watch list.  $35 was a key
level for the bulls and if the stock can hold it buyers will 
likely make a run for $40.  If not, shorts may try and erase
any of today's losses with a renewed push for the $30 mark.
Whatever the case there definitely seems to be a tradeable 
opportunity here.




---

Charles Schwab Inc. - SCH - close: 13.39 close: +0.72

WHAT TO WATCH:  As the bargain hunters came out in force on
Friday the beleaguered broker group saw strong gains across
the sector.  One that might interest investors is the low
dollar stock SCH.  Shares posted a 5.6% gain on Friday and they
look poised to run higher.  Nimble traders should watch the
13.50 level which is currently near-term resistance.  Once
over 13.50, bulls should be watch for new resistance at $14 
and again at $15.  Should shares fail there appears to be
strong support at the $12.50 level.




---

Vishay Intertech - VSH - close: 24.00 change: +0.89

WHAT TO WATCH:  Rising share prices on rising volume is what a
lot of bullish investors are looking for.  Volume was just over
average on Friday but that's an improvement over the last 
several days.  Shares of Vishay, an electronic component supplier,
have been consolidating sideways for weeks before buyers started
stepping in a couple of days ago.  Aggressive traders should
look for a close over $24 while the rest of us should wait for
a close over $25 before considering a long play.  The $25 mark
could take a few more days before the bulls tackle it.  Once
this is accomplished our price objective would be $28 which was
the high set back in late May.




---

Immunex Corp. - IMNX - close: 17.59 change: +0.33

WHAT TO WATCH:  Shares of IMNX have been steadily gaining since
the company announced positive results on a recent study for a
psoriasis treatment.  The company believes that their arthritis
drug, Enbrel, maybe a potential treatment.  The stock has been 
struggling with the $18 level for some time now and a close above 
this level would be our potential trigger to  consider the stock 
for a long play.   




---

Oracle Corp. - ORCL - close: 15.17 change: +1.16

WHAT TO WATCH:  If you're bullish on tech stocks Friday's trading
action probably has you salivating about the possibilities.  One
stock that will likely be a favorite is ORCL.  This last week saw
shares working on a new base of support at $14 and the close over
$15 was the first hurdle for a new uptrend to begin.  Keep this
one on your personal watch list as it could post solid gains if
the software sector can make a decent comeback.





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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-24-2001
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section two:

Split Trader
  New Plays: THQ Inc. - THQI (Bullish)
  Play Updates: NVDA, AAS, AHC, GD, LEN, OMG
  Closed Plays: none

Net Bulls
  New Plays: none
  Long Play  ScreamingMedia Inc - SCRM
  Bullish Play Updates: IMCL, ISSI, TECH
  Bearish Play Updates: Adobe - DBE
  Closed Bullish Plays: none
  Closed Bearish Plays: EBAY, VeriSign

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: Ultimate Electronics (Bullish), TCF Financial (Bearish) 
  Bullish Play Updates: Newmont Mining, Pepsi
  Bearish Play Updates:.PACCAR - PCAR
  Closed Bullish Plays: none
  Closed Bearish Play: Administaff, Ballard Power


=================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

============
ST New Plays
============

  -------------------------
  New Split Candidate Plays
  -------------------------

THQ Inc. - THQI Close:$51.45 change:+4.18 Stop:$46.00

Company Description:
THQ is one of the largest publishers of videos games on a wide 
variety of platforms including the Nintendo Game Boy, Nintendo 64, 
Sony Playstation 2 and the upcoming Microsoft xBox.  THQ dominates 
the children's market with titles based on Disney (the movie 
"Atlantis") and Nichelodeon (Rugrats) characters.  Other popular 
titles are based on the World Wrestling Federation (50-percent of 
sales).  Its most recent new game, Red Faction" for the Sony 
Playstation 2 is a big hit with sales of 204,000 copies in three
months. .

Fundamentals: 
THQ beat analysts' second-quarter forecast by two-cents when they 
posted earnings of 15-cents per share on a 70-percent jump in sales 
to $55.2 million.  Analysts forecast the company will earn $1.45 in 
the current year on sales of $376 million and $1.83 per share in 
2002.  Last year, the company earned $1.28 per share on sales of 
$347 million.  The shares have a current P/E of 40 and a forward 
2001 one of 35.  The industry average P/E is 30.  The company is 
expected to maintain earning growth of 25-percent per year for the 
next 5-years as opposed to the industry average of 17-percent.  
Three brokers covering the stock have a 12-month target price for 
the shares ranging from a low of $65.00 to a high of $70.00. 

Why We Like It: 
We have been bullish on the games industry for some time.  A battle 
royale is coming up for the holiday dollar between deep-pocketed 
heavyweights Microsoft (xBox) and Sony (Playstation 2).  Microsoft 
has said it will spend $500 million introducing its new xBox game 
console and you can be certain Sony will not be far behind.  
Regardless of the success of the platforms, the real winners in 
this battle will be the publishers such as THQ that make games for 
all platforms.  

The weak market has driven THQ shares down from near $60 in mid-
July to Thursday's $47.00 session low.  However, the shares never 
fell out of their long-term up trend, they just moved to the lower 
end of their trading channel setting up a good entry point.  
Friday saw a rebound when the shares gained $4.18 on above average 
trading volume of 898K (average is 826K).  The shares are likely to 
make a short-term test of significant support at $55 and possibly 
$60.  For investors, our point and figure analysis produced a long-
term bullish price target of $72.  For both long and short-term 
trades we suggest a stop at $46.00.

Picked on August 24th at $51.45
Earnings Date              N/A (Not Confirmed)





===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  SPLIT RUN Updates
  -----------------------

NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 85.28 change: +2.37 stop: 79.00

Trending higher again, NVDA continues to ride the XBOX wave of
press as we inch ever closer to the launch date of MSFT's first
foray into the console gaming market.  Almost every bit of news
you find on the gaming market and NVDA tends to be positive so
we're comfortable with our expectations that bulls will try
and make a run in NVDA before its September 2:1 split.  The 
stock looks good here but if you're looking for a better entry
point or just want more confirmation we'll repeat our comments
from Thursday.  Those looking to buy on the dip can look for
a bounce anywhere from $80 to $82.  Investors wanting a little
more to believe in can wait for the stock to close over $90.
We will leave our stop at $79 for now.  In case you were 
wondering, MSFT plans to launch its XBox on November 8th.

Picked on August 22nd @ $ 84.79
Gain since picked:       + 0.49
Earnings Date:             8/14 (confirmed)





  -----------------------
  SPLIT CANDIDATE Updates
  -----------------------

AmeriSource - AAS - close: 62.19 change: +1.19 stop: 58.50 *new*

Joining the Dow and NASDAQ in our gleeful Friday rally is the 
soon to be renamed AmeriSource Corp.  The U.S. FTC has decided to
not opposed the proposed merger between AAS and its rival Bergen
Brunswig Corp (BBC).  The new company, to be named AmeriSource-
Bergen, will be one of three major distributors for the U.S.
drug market.  Also noted in a Reuters news story were comments
by a Lehman Brothers analyst who has his price target on the
stock in the high-60's to the low-70's.  Shareholders were 
probably encouraged by the news and the stock closed near its 
high for the day.  The stock remains under resistance in the
$62.50-$63.00 area and traders may want to wait for shares to
close over this level before initiating new positions.  Investors
should also consider a potential pullback as the stock digests
its recent gains.  This would allow traders to target new entries
on a bounce at $60 or $61.  We are going to tighten our stop on
the play to $58.50 which is half a point below our entry price
and below the stock's 10-dma.

Picked on August 17th @ $ 59.00
Gain since picked:      +  3.19
Earnings Date:             N/A  (not confirmed)




---

Amerada Hess - AHC - close: 78.31 change: +0.69 stop: 76.25 *new*

The fundamental reasons to consider AHC as a potential long play
may be there but the bulls are not rushing to buy shares at the
moment.  If you think an energy or an oil stock may be a good
opportunity for your portfolio then keep an eye on AHC but this
is one trade that will require some patience.  Short-term money
is likely to flow toward tech stocks if the NASDAQ can build on
today's gains.  Our entry point strategy remains the same as
Thursday.  Unless you're willing to scalp the 2.5 points between
76.50 and 79 we suggest waiting for a close over $79 to consider
a new long position.  We're going to bump our stop up a little
bit higher shaving off another 45 cents of potential loss.  If
you have a longer-term outlook on the stock consider using the
200-dma (currently just over $75) as guidance for placing your
stop.

Picked on August 15th @ $ 78.90
Gain since picked:      -  0.59
Earnings Date:             N/A  (not confirmed)




---

General Dynamics - GD - close: 83.00 change: +1.94 stop: 79.00

Sailing into the weekend, shares of GD posted strong gains on
the back of the broad market rally.  Looking at an intraday 
chart, traders can see that the bounce from Wednesday's low
has not stopped and the buying seems to be relatively steady.
We continue to feel positive about GD's prospects but still
suggest that more conservative traders wait for the close over
$85 which will be the real test.  

Picked on August 8th @ $  83.85
Gain since picked:      -  0.85
Earnings Date:         10/17/01 (not confirmed)




---

Lennar - LEN - close: 42.60 change: +2.20 stop: 38.00

Now that's more like it!  We're finally starting to see the move
we've been expecting in LEN.  The bulls took their cue from the
Dow and pushed shares of LEN up over 5% today.  We're still 
looking for that short-term target of $45 but the stock has to
clear its 50-dma first at 42.81.  If you're not in the stock 
already look for a small consolidation early next week before
the uptrend continues.  If shares make it to $45, consider taking
some profits.  Traders who are already profitable may want to 
tighten their stop.  We're going to wait and see how Monday
treats us before moving ours.

Picked on August 16th @ $ 40.66
Gain since picked:       + 2.54
Earnings Date:          09/19/01 (not confirmed)




---

OM Group, Inc. - OMG - close: 65.19 change: +1.09 stop: 60.00

OMG's stock really has a nice trend building.  Buyers have really
been stepping in to pick up the stock since late July.  The month
of August saw a trading trend of two big up days and three or
four days of sideways consolidation.  This last week saw one big
up day, a couple of days of consolidation and now Friday's 
beautiful bounce off the stock's 10-dma.  Actually, today's low
was right at strong support this side of $63.  We like the looks
of the positive close over $65 and consider it an entry point to
go long now.  If you're not willing to risk the 5 point spread
between here and our stop at $60 consider setting your stop just
under the $63 level.

Picked on August 21st @ $ 64.50
Gain since picked:       + 0.69
Earnings Date:              N/A  (not confirmed)





==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

=================
NB Long Term Play
=================

ScreamingMedia Inc - SCRM Close:$2.50 change:+0.11

Company Description:
The company filters content from more than 3,000 sources and sends 
it to Web sites needing real-time, customized content.   The 
content covers a wide range of topics and mediums including news, 
features, photos, video, stock quotes, audio, weather reports and 
more.  In 2001, ScreamingMedia acquired Stockpoint and its 
portfolio of financial information services. The firm has over 
824 customers including AT&T, IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Merrill Lynch, 
American Express and Boeing.  They have an agreement with Prodigy 
Communications to provide custom business, entertainment, 
technology and other content to Prodigy's 3.3 million users, and 
with Scientific-Atlantic to provide content for their new 
information-on-demand application.  SCRM has also announced a 
strategic partnership with BEA Systems to provide software and 
content for BEA's e-business application portals.  

Fundamentals: 
Last year, the company lost 75-cents per share and analysts expect 
them to narrow that loss to 44-cents in 2001 and 14-cents 2002.  
Sales are expected to increase from $21.9 million in 2000 to $75 
million in 2002.  The company has minimal debt and over $88 million 
in cash.  

Revenue for the second quarter increased 42-percent over 
the same quarter a year ago to $4.7 million.  Gross margins were 
steady at 72-percent.  The company's cash burn rate was $5.3 
million.  

The company has announced it expects to reach profitability in 
2002.  They anticipate the Stockpoint acquisition will double 
their contract value and be accretive to earnings.

Why We Like It: 
Whereas many Internet stocks crashed and burned when it was 
discovered their business models were as speculative as their stock 
prices.  ScreamingMedia management is quietly building a successful 
business with a rock solid business model.  Although many web sites 
have gone under, overall Internet usage continues to grow.  When 
successful web sites need content, it is cheaper and easier to buy 
it from ScreamingMedia then produce it themselves.  They have 
signed customer and partnership agreements with some of the best 
corporate names.  

With prospects of profitability in 2002, a low cash burn rate and  
$88 million in the bank (this equates to $2.31 per share), by 
almost any measure this is one of the more undervalued firms 
around.  Their entire market capitalization at $95.75 million is 
barely more than the company bank account.  

The dot-bomb has hurt the shares of many fundamentally sound 
companies and it appears ScreamingMedia at $2.50 a share is one of 
them.  This writer believes so and has added these shares to his 
personal portfolio. 

Earnings Date              N/A (Not Confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------------

ImClone Systems - IMCL - close: 51.39 change: +1.91 stop: 45.00

Biotech bulls beware!  The sector index (BTK.X) is up strongly 
three days in a row.  You know what that means.  We would be
expecting a pullback very soon.  It doesn't help that the index
closed right at 550.  This proved to be tough resistance on
July 27th.  Even if you're a biotech optimist the group would
still be looking at resistance at 570 which is also bolstered
by the 200-dma.  Now that we got the negativity out of the way,
IMCL appears to be doing fine.  Yes, we would expect a dip soon
but hopefully it will only be to offer us a better entry point
into a new long position.  The $48 level is probably a good 
place to look for a bounce should the group and the stock do
some consolidating.  Don't let this write up fool you.  We're 
very encouraged by the stock's breakout from its July/August
base building.  The stock market is the perfect humiliator so
if IMCL rockets up to $53 or $56 (the next two levels of resistance)
we'll be prepared to eat our words.

Picked on August 23rd @ $49.48
Gain since picked:      + 1.91
Earnings Date:             N/A  




---

Integrated Silicon - ISSI - cls: 16.08 chg: +0.83 stop: 14.90 *new*

As the 800 lb. networking gorilla beat its chest in triumph the 
other tech stocks in the jungle all let out a collective roar.
CSCO may have been the one to spark the rally but the chip sector
was quick to jump on the bandwagon this morning.  The SOX added
over 34 points to end at 594, up 6% on the day.  The sector may
have broken out of its month long downtrend but we could still see
tough resistance at the 600 level.  Shares of ISSI certainly 
enjoyed the positive atmosphere adding almost 5.5% and squeaked
over a major resistance level at $16.  This may be a moral victory
for the bulls but it is a precarious perch at best.  Since our 
near-term target is $17-$17.25 traders could make this their entry
point but we'd prefer to initiate a new long play with a dip back
to 15.50.  To shore up our defenses we're going to raise our stop
to 14.90 at the stock's 10-dma.

Picked on August 16th @ $15.10
Gain since picked:      + 0.98
Earnings Date:             N/A  




---

Techne Corp. - TECH - close: 35.14 change: -0.35 stop: 33.50 *new*

True to form, shares of TECH remained within their narrow trading
range and failed to participate in the BTK's third positive close
in a row.  Looking at an intraday chart there appears to be some
solid selling pressure at the $35.50 level.  If we base our 
moves on the current trend we should be expecting shares to 
consolidate for another day.  However, as the stock is near the
middle of the channel our estimate would be for a bounce at 
$34.50 or a potential breakout to $36.50.  We would consider 
new entries at 34.50 or a close over 35.50 (assuming the stock
didn't get away from us).  While we like stocks that act in
a predictable manner, in this case the narrow channel, we would
have expected the enthusiasm in the biotech sector to rub off
on TECH in a more positive way these last two days.  We're going
to raise our stop to $33.50 in case the bears suddenly take
the reins and aim for the 200-dma again.

Picked on August 22nd @ $35.05
Gain since picked:      + 0.09
Earnings Date:             N/A  





  -----------------------
  NB Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------------

Adobe Systems Inc - ADBE - close: 35.78 change: +1.28 stop: 36.00

The GSO software index posted a 6% gain today as the bulls took
over Wall Street for a day.  We were sure that ADBE would be 
stopped out in the joyful rush to buy tech stocks but somehow
the buyers couldn't push past $35.90 before the closing bell.
We honestly don't have much hope for Monday as many expect a
morning follow through.  Thus, our short play is merely living
on a prayer at the moment and we hope our readers took our
advice and waited before starting any new short plays on this
stock.  To be honest, ADBE might make a good long trade if it
does close over $36 but bulls will still be staring at hefty
resistance near $38.

Picked on August 21st @ $33.45
Gain since picked:      - 2.33
Earnings Date:            N/A  




  -----------------------
  NB Closed Plays
  -----------------------

eBay Inc - EBAY close: 59.01 change: +3.95 stop: 59.00 

Plain and simple, a huge move to the upside today swung us out 
of this play due to the tech comeback. Upon the opening bell 
shares leaped to $57 then continued to rise in earnest, briefly 
hitting the day's high of $59.98. Fortunately our stop was 
tightened and we walk away with a minor loss. 

Picked on August 21st @ $57.92
Gain since picked:       -1.08
Earnings Date:            N/A  





---

VeriSign - VRSN close: 47.01 change: +3.00 stop: 46.00 

Today's rebound in the market is exactly what we didn't need for 
our short plays.  With a 64-cent gap up at the open, VRSN shares 
gathered plenty of momentum to continue to the day's high of 
$47.12. We part with a gain of $1.97 per share from this week's 
run.

Picked on August 14th @ $48.98
Gain since picked:      + 1.97
Earnings Date:            N/A  





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  --------------
  New Bullish Plays
  --------------

Ultimate Electronics - ULTE Close:$28.55 Change:+0.35 Stop:$27.25

Company Description:
ULTE is a consumer electronics retailer that sells a wide range 
of audio & video components & home office equipment. ULTE operates 
stores under the name SoundTrack, Audio King and Ultimate 
Electronics. 

Fundamentals: 
For the 3 months ended 4/30/01, revenues rose 21% to $115.1M. Net 
income before extra. item fell 6% to $1.7M. Results reflect 
increased television sales, partially offset by a higher mix of 
lower margin products and higher infrastructure expenses.  
Analysts expect the company to earn $1.31 per share on revenue 
of $484 million in 2001 and $1.35 on $588 million in 2002.  This 
gives the firm a current P/E of 22.52 and a forward 2001 P/E of 
21.15.

Why We Like It: 

Despite recent downgrades, ULTE reported a strong +15% growth in 
revenues for the second quarter ended yesterday, beating 
expectations by 1 cent.  In a slowing economy where consumers have 
refrained from large purchases, this news took investors by 
surprise and was quite to the contrary of the retail outlook that 
has been presented as of late.  The news pushed the stock higher 
and three days of increasing upside volume have taken the shares 
back up above the 50 DMA.  Sitting right at short-term resistance, 
a minor push on the next session could provide for a break out 
that moves shares to recent highs just under $33.00.  Technical 
indicators have turned over and the shares remain in a viable 
trading range.  Short-term traders may want to look at $31.00 as 
an appropriate exit point while those with a longer-term focus 
should consider $34.00.  Support has been established just under 
$24.00 and we like $27.25 for our stop loss on this trade.


Picked on August 24th at $28.55
Earnings Date             11/22 (Confirmed)
 




  --------------
  New Bearish Plays
  --------------

TCF Financial  - TCB Close:$47.60 change:-2.00 Stop:$51.00

Company Description:
TCF Financial is the holding company for TCF National Bank and TCF 
National Bank Colorado.  They offer consumer and banking services 
through more than 350 branch offices in Colorado, Illinois, 
Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. 

Fundamentals: 
Analysts project the company will earn $2.66 per share on revenue 
of $839 million in 2001 and $3.05 per share in 2002.  Last year, 
the firm earned $2.35 per share of revenue of $827 million.  TCB 
shares have a current P/E of 18 and a forward 2002 one of 16.  The 
industry average is 16.

Why We Like It: 
Regional banks have been on quite a roll.  A declining interest 
rate environment, strong demand for refinancing mortgages and 
healthy home sales have driven shares to new heights.  TCB shares 
have moved like many of its peers - up.  They have climbed from 
$32.81 on March 22nd to a 52-week high of $51.12 on August 21st.  
However all good things must come to an end and the stock charts of 
many regional banks including TCB are looking like an upside down 
fishhook.  Since reaching their new high TCB shares have begun to 
weaken with three consecutive down days.  Friday's $2.00 drop was a 
big one as it was the largest one-day loss of the year and closed 
below significant support at $47.78.  The shares of many regional 
banks are looking overextended due to their long bull run in the 
face of a housing market that is showing the first signs of 
weakening.  There is a lot of air underneath these shares and a 
drop to support at $42 or the $14.42 200-day moving average is a 
reasonable expectation.  Traders can wait for further confirmation 
of bearish momentum by waiting for a close below today's session 
low of $47.12 before taking a position.  We are starting this play 
with a stop at $51.00. 

Picked on August 24th at $47.60
Earnings Date              N/A (Not Confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------

Newmont Mining NEM Close:$21.70 Gain:+0.27 Stop:$20.40

Newmont managed to gain 1.25% today, even though gold futures dropped 
$2.80.  Newmont still has to establish a close above $22 before we can 
raise our stop.  With a plethora of economic data being released next 
week, gold could start to move.  Which way is yet to be determined.

Picked on July 14th at $20.50
Gain since picked:      +1.20
Earnings Date            11/1/01 (unconfirmed)




---

Pepsi PEP Close:$47.10 Gain:-0.15 Stop:$46.00

Pepsi didn't participate in today's rally.  Perhaps some mild strength 
in the dollar had investors pulling some money out of Pepsi to go 
chasing after technology stocks.  

Picked on August 10th at $45.66
Gain since picked:        +1.44
Earnings Date               N/A





  -----------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------

PACCAR - PCAR Close:$55.01 Gain:+1.80 Stop:$56.00

A rising market lifts most stocks, even weak ones. PACCAR rallied 
$1.80, but volume was below average.  We are still below our 
stop, and barring another rally on Monday, we should be in good 
shape.

Picked on August 17th at $55.46
Gain since picked:        +0.45
Earnings Date              N/A





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  ------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  ------------------

Administaff ASF Close:$32.95 Gain:1.75 Stop:$32.25

Today's rally was enough to push Aministaff past our stop.  The 
prospects for this stock still don't look good, but we must 
remain disciplined with our stops in these market conditions.

Picked on August 21th at $29.15
Gain since picked:        -3.10
Earnings Date              N/A




---

Ballard Power BLDP Close:$22.51 Gain:+1.86 Stop:$22.50

Ballard has treated us well, and we are sorry to see it go, but 
32 percent gains are unheard of in these market conditions, so we 
finally had to take our gains and run. 

Picked on August 14th at $32.02
Gain since picked:       +10.52
Earnings Date            11/16/01 (unconfirmed)





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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 08-24-2001
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section three:
Split Announcement: none
Expected/Likely Split Announcements For The Coming Week: none 
New Split Candidates: CYN, MTB, SNV, 
Market Watch for Week of August 27th
   - Major Earnings
   - Board of Directors Meetings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20

=================================================================

==================
Split Announcements
==================

none

=================================================
Expected/Likely Announcements For The Coming Week
=================================================

none

=======================================
New Split Candidates to add to the List
=======================================

CYN - City National Corp

City National was in the habit of splitting its stock almost 
every year up until 1990.  After an eleven-year dry spell and a 
stubborn trading channel, the company could be ripe once again 
for a split. CYN has seen a stellar year so far with the recent 
high of $49.38 recovering from the year low of $33.89. There are 
48 million shares outstanding and 75 million authorized so we may 
see a meeting to increase the authorized shares prior to a split 
announcement. 

 

===

MTB - M & T Bank Corp

MTB is intriguing as a split candidate since it has reached the 
$80 level but we also must keep in mind that the company let the 
stock run up to $521 in 2000 before announcing a 10:1 split. That 
action effectively brought prices down to $52, which is perhaps 
where the Board would like to have them again. Shares have had a 
fairly steady increase in price for a total of 30 percent for the 
52-week term. Illustrating additional strength, the last earnings 
report showed a 13% increase from the previous year's Q2, proving 
their growth in loan volume and successful acquisitions of 
Keystone Financial and Premier National Bancorp.

 

===

SNV - Synovus Financial Corp

Synovus has an extensive split history up through 1998, which was 
when the last 3:2 split was announced at $36. Current trading is 
just off 52-week highs at $34; these are levels that haven't been 
reached since that last split announcement. SNV shares have risen 
74.7 percent in the last 52-week period on strengthening volume, 
making this a good candidate for a play recommendation. As possible 
triggers, watch for earnings in mid-October or an impromptu BoD 
meeting.

 



==================================================
Market Watch for the week of June 25th - June 29th
==================================================

  ------------------------
  Major Earnings This Week
  ------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

DY      Dycom Industries      Mon, Aug 27  After the Close   0.32
ULCM    Ulticom               Mon, Aug 27  4:30 pm ET        0.10

DT      Deutsche Telecom      Tue, Aug 28  Before the Bell    N/A
HEI     HEICO                 Tue, Aug 28  Before the Bell   0.20
LTXX    LTX                   Tue, Aug 28  Before the Bell  -1.04
VVTV    ValueVision           Tue, Aug 28  Before the Bell  -0.05
DCI     Donaldson             Tue, Aug 28  After the Close   0.47
FNSR    Finisar               Tue, Aug 28  After the Close  -0.04
HRB     H & R Block           Tue, Aug 28  After the Close  -0.22
CMVT    Comverse Technology   Tue, Aug 28  After the Close   0.28
ROP     Roper Industries      Tue, Aug 28  After the Close   0.39
SEAC    SeaChange Intl        Tue, Aug 28  4:30 pm ET        0.01
BMO     Bank of Montreal      Tue, Aug 28  ----- n/a -----    N/A
GCO     Genesco               Tue, Aug 28  ----- n/a -----   0.24

TKA     Telekom Austria AG    Wed, Aug 29  Before the Bell    N/A
CASY    Casey's General Str   Wed, Aug 29  Before the Bell   0.28
COO     Cooper Companies      Wed, Aug 29  Before the Bell   0.66
MCRS    Micros Systems        Wed, Aug 29  After the Close   0.05
PLL     Pall                  Wed, Aug 29  After the Close   0.30
TECD    Tech Data             Wed, Aug 29  After the Close   0.41
TLS     Telstra               Wed, Aug 29  ----- n/a -----    N/A
BTH     Blyth Inc.            Wed, Aug 29  ----- n/a -----   0.32
FCEL    FuelCell              Wed, Aug 29  ----- n/a -----  -0.19
MIKE    Michaels Stores       Wed, Aug 29  ----- n/a -----   0.13
TTWO    Take-Two Interactive  Wed, Aug 29  ----- n/a -----   0.04

CHS     Chico's FAS           Thu, Aug 30  Before the Bell   0.38
FLE     Fleetwood Enterprises Thu, Aug 30  Before the Bell  -0.32
SEH     Spartech              Thu, Aug 30  Before the Bell   0.40
ZLC     Zale Corp             Thu, Aug 30  Before the Bell   0.06
ASTT    ASAT Holdings Limited Thu, Aug 30  After the Close  -0.12
COCO    Corinthian Colleges   Thu, Aug 30  After the Close   0.33
MEE     Massey Energy         Thu, Aug 30  After the Close  -0.07
PUMA    Pumatech              Thu, Aug 30  After the Close  -0.12
REXMY   Rexam PLC ADR         Thu, Aug 30  ----- n/a -----    N/A
AHO     Royal Ahold N.V.      Thu, Aug 30  ----- n/a -----   0.34

REMC    REMEC                 Fri, Aug 31  After the Close  -0.05

  ------------------------------------
  Board of Director Meetings This Week
  ------------------------------------

Symbol  Company                  Date

CASY    Caseys General Stores    8/28
DUK     Duke Energy Corp         8/28
PUMA    Pumatech                 8/28

ANF     Abercrombie & Fitch      8/29
KMGB    KMG Chemicals            8/29
NVGN    Nomogen Limited          8/29
PRLS    Peerless Systems         8/29

RINO    Blue Rhino Corp          8/30
BONT    Bon-ton Stores           8/30
KWD     Kellwood                 8/30
MDT     Medtronic                8/30
ULCM    Ulticom                  8/30


  -------------------------------
  Upcoming Stock Splits This Week
  -------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name         Ratio   Payable    Executable

MSCC    Microsemi              2:1      8/28          8/29
FFIC    Flushing Financial     3:2      8/30          8/31
SFD     Smithfield Foods       2:1      8/31 pending  9/03
CRVL    CorVel Corp            3:2      8/31          9/03
FRK     Florida Rock           3:2      8/31          9/03
MATW    Matthews Intl          2:1      8/31          9/03
KMP     Kinder Morgan Energy   2:1      8/31          9/03
FISV    Fiserv                 3:2      8/31          9/03


  --------------------------
  Economic Reports This Week
  --------------------------

Existing home sales for July will kick off the shortened holiday 
week. Tuesday brings in the consumer confidence report for 
August, with expectations for higher figures from July, and 
Thursday hails in new numbers for personal income, spending, and 
jobless claims. Personal income figures are likely to be flat,
with a slight increase in spending.

===============================================================
Week of August 27, 2001:

Monday, 08/27/01
Existing Home Sales    Jul  Forecast:  5.30M  Previous:  5.33M


Tuesday, 08/28/01
Consumer Confidence    Aug  Forecast:  117.5  Previous:  116.5


Wednesday, 08/29/01
GDP-Prel                Q2  Forecast:   0.0%  Previous:   0.7%
Chain Deflator-Prel     Q2  Forecast:   2.3%  Previous:   2.3%


Thursday, 08/30/01
Initial Claims         8/25 Forecast:   400K  Previous:   393K
Personal Income        Jul  Forecast:   0.3%  Previous:   0.3%
PCE                    Jul  Forecast:   0.1%  Previous:   0.4%
Help-Wanted Index      Jul  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     58


Friday, 08/31/01
Mich Sentiment-Rev     Aug  Forecast:   93.3  Previous:   93.5
Chicago PMI            Aug  Forecast:  40.5%  Previous:  38.0%
Factory Orders         Jul  Forecast:  -0.5%  Previous:  -2.4%


==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

  ---------------------------------
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  ---------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
PHG       Kroninklijke Philips Elec  27.77  +1.07
SRE       Sempra Energy              27.77  +0.52
VSH       Vishay Intertechnology     24.00  +0.89
LEN       Lennar Corp                42.60  +2.20
LAF       LaFarge Corp               35.31  +0.95

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
FNSR      Finisar Corp              11.73  +1.79
ALGX      Allegiance Telecom        13.32  +1.08
LBRT      Liberate Technologies     15.35  +2.40
MCDTA     McData Cl A               15.78  +2.22
HLIT      Harmonic Inc              15.54  +2.36 

 ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
UN         Unilever                 62.83  +1.03
STM        Stmicroelectronics       35.20  +2.20
V          Vivendi Ads              56.52  +1.87
ABS        Albertsons Inc           36.56  +1.35
INTU       Intuit                   39.04  +3.32

  -----------------------------------------
   Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
 -------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
FRE       Freddie Mac               64.89  -1.51
WM        Washington Mutual         37.96  -3.02
HI        Household International   62.35  -2.37
SLM       Usa Education             79.78  -2.16
SNV       Synovus Financial         33.02  -1.02

  ------------------------------------------------------------
   Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
  -------------------------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name                Close  Change
PLD       Prologis Trust              22.50  -0.56
ASFC      Astoria Financial Corp      57.07  -4.33
UCBH      Ucbh Holdings               29.98  -1.63
AMFH      American Financial Holdings 25.50  -0.37
CLJ       Crestline Capital Holdings  30.98  -0.02


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