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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 08/30/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 08-30-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section one:

Market Wrap: Good lesson on sector analysis
Market Sentiment: Parsimony Prevails
Play-of-the-Day: Minnesota Mining - MMM (Bearish)
Watch List:Appears in Monday, Wednesday and Weekend Editions

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Advance/Decline
DJIA     9919.58 -171.32 10117.54  9869.14 1.16 bln   1065/2021 
NASDAQ   1791.68 - 51.49  1833.29  1777.11 1.71 bln   1245/2371
S&P 100   574.38 - 11.96   587.96   572.41   Totals   2310/4392
S&P 500  1129.03 - 19.53  1151.75  1124.87             
RUS 2000  468.06 -  5.28   473.34   465.42
DJ TRANS 2806.84 - 21.03  2844.12  2779.29
VIX        28.08 +  2.35    28.67    25.97 
VXN        52.28 +  3.00    52.68    51.15
TRIN        2.26 
Put/Call Ratio      0.94
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Good lesson on sector analysis by Jeff Bailey

Yesterday I had a chat with one of the trade pickers for 
PremierInvestor.net.  No need to mention names as he has had more 
winning trade picks than losing picks, but even a good stock 
picker can sometimes overlook the importance of sector analysis.

One famous phrase from the Apollo 13 journey was "Houston, we 
have a problem."  Right now, traders shouldn't be experiencing a 
big problem with our recently profiled short in shares of 
MedImmune (NASDAQ:MEDI), but I would have one word of caution 
here.  It relates to what I've been mentioning in my commentary 
in recent weeks regarding the relative strength of the biotechs 
vs. the broader market averages.

When I first started my career as a professional trader, there 
were times when the "head trader" would come to me and 
ask..."what the heck are you doing shorting that stock when the 
sector has been so strong?"  My reply was, "it's rallied to 
resistance and I think it's going to get crushed."  The next 
order of business was for me to get the position out of the 
account and focus on weak stocks in weak sectors.

We recently profiled shares of MedImmune (NASDAQ:MEDI) as a short 
play on August 28th at $40.46.  I will confess that the stock 
looks like a short as it has rallied to both its 200-day moving 
average and its bearish resistance trend on the point and figure 
chart.  The only potential problem?  I have the stock classified 
as a biotech stock.  While I hardly consider yesterday's gain of 
$0.19 and today's gain of $1.30 as a BIG problem, we all can 
begin to appreciate just how group strength can positively 
influence a stock price.

Remember how "adamant" we've been about the biotechs and 
semiconductor sectors having good relative strength vs. the S&P 
500 and the NASDAQ Composite?  Perhaps that analysis lends to the 
recent gains of MedImmune (MEDI) as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 
Composite have been suffering declines.  

Very rarely does an investment site critique their own trades and 
point out potential mistakes.  I'm not above that.  I point out 
my own mistakes too.  What we need to alert traders to, that 
might be short MedImmune (MEDI) is what could happen should a 
broader market rally occur.  I've alway learned to plan for the 
worse, and we need to drive that point home now.

First... I would have a FIRM stop at the originally suggested 
stop of $42.75.  A trade at $45 would be a triple top buy signal 
and break of bearish resistance trend.  Traders will note that 
this stock achieved its previous bearish price objective of $35 
and has since reverse higher.

MedImmune Chart - $1 box



One thing that originally "sold" me on point/figure charting was 
the ability to use vertical counts in assessing risk/reward in a 
trade as well as the ability to see if a stock had achieved a 
potential top/bottom based on those vertical counts.  With the 
stock having previously achieved a bearish vertical count and the 
stock not participating in the broader market direction, this has 
me on heightened alert for potential problems.  Considering the 
stock is in one of the strongest acting sectors of the market 
(biotech), traders should be honoring a tight stop.  Should the 
broader markets continue to trade lower, that should help keep a 
lid on shares of MEDI and give traders that are short the stock 
the opportunity to aggressively follow any downward movement with 
an aggressive stop.  First sign of trouble for a bearish trader 
is a trade at $45.  Under current market conditions, it is 
entirely possible that shares of MEDI could pull back to the $37-
$36 level and would offer bearish traders a nice trade, but isn't 
it interesting how the stock has been able to hang in there for 
two sessions while the broader markets have traded lower?  This 
is why sector analysis is so important when choosing stocks.  
Again, I'm not pointing fingers, but there are better stocks to 
have been shorting.

Minnesota Mining (MMM) - $2 and $1 box



I don't think the term "bear" as it relates to a trader got its 
name just because it is associated with an overpowering and often 
time thought of ferocious animal.  A bear will rarely mess with a 
creature that looks to have a size advantage or power advantage.  
Indeed, a bear is more likely to find easy dining on a weaker 
animal that gives hint of weakness compared to its peers.  A 
bearish trader that observes the bearish vertical count of $94 
perhaps felt there was some downside to shares of MMM that had 
yet to be achieved.  While there is no guarantee that the stock 
will achieve its bearish price objective, other stocks like MEDI 
achieved its objective so who's to argue at this point.

Every trader has a fixed amount of capital with which to work.  
As we build our list of bullish and bearish candidates, it makes 
so much sense to concentrate on shorting weak stocks in weak 
groups that have good bearish price objectives that have yet to 
be achieved.

Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) - $5 box



The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) is hardly falling 
apart, but there's some downside potential should this index 
break below the $520 level.  A trade there would be a break of 
bullish support and have this index susceptible to the $505 level 
or even the current bearish price objective of $495.  As you can 
perhaps tell, bears that are short some stocks in this index will 
want to see the index itself break below the 520 level before 
they begin to feel that things are really starting to break down.

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) is comprised of the 
following stocks.  Their symbols are... AA, CAT, C, CSX, DCN, DE, 
DOW, DD, ETN, FDX, F, GP, GT, HWP, HON, IR, IP, JCI, KRI, MAS, 
MMM, MOT, PTV, PD, PPG, R, S, UTX, X and WHR.

Hey!  Minnesota Mining and Mfg. is a component.  How is its 
relative strength vs. the sector/index it is a component of?

Relative Strength chart of MMM vs. CYC.X 



When viewing the relative strength chart, we begin to understand 
that shares of MMM were outperforming the CYC.X up until February 
or March.  The 3-box reversal into the column of O's (downward) 
didn't come until March (red 3).  That was when shares of MMM 
began under performing the CYC.X.  Then the stock lost a little 
more strength in April (red 4) and really didn't budge until just 
recently when we got an entry in August(red 8).  Remember that 
relative strength only tells you how strong/weak a stock is 
versus the comparison security; it DOES NOT tell us about 
direction.  We must interpret the individual stock or sector 
chart to try and determine future direction.  We think we've done 
that from the bearish counts and some of the breaks of trend.  
The above relative strength chart gives hint that subscribers are 
short/put a deep cyclical that is weak relative to the sector.  

As a final note on MMM.  We do not believe shares of MMM are 
"home run" material for bearish traders, but the stock does offer 
the potential downside that could exceed broader market action.

What to look for tomorrow.

Today we did not see a rush to the bond market and that gives 
some hope to the bulls for tomorrow.  However, late in the 
session there were some technology stocks (like Qualcomm 
NASDAQ:QCOM) that finally gave up some support levels and that 
has me thinking that there will be some downside action in stocks 
that trade at lofty valuations where visibility is uncertain.  

Yesterday's mid-quarter update from Sun Microsystems (NASDA:SUNW) 
was less than spectacular and that stock got hammered today.  
This plants the seed for extreme nervousness in the computer 
technology sector and brings to the market further opportunity 
for doubt in stocks that are trading 25-100 times earnings, where 
those types of growth rates may become unsustainable.

Tonight's mid-quarter update from Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS) 
has seen selling in the after-market.  The stock went out at 
$46.73 and we're seeing trades at $45.28.  I will put much more 
weight in the first hour of trading for this stock during normal 
trading hours than I will in any post/pre-market trading 
activity.  All participants are not around to cast their vote.  I 
note however that there is some selling at prices lower than 
today's close and this could be a negative for the semiconductor 
group as a whole.

In tonight's mid-quarter conference call, Novellus Systems (NVLS) 
did talk about its third-quarter financial targets and said 
bookings will come in on the low end of targets.  The 
semiconductor equipment maker said shipments will most likely 
fall below initial expectations.

Other chip equipment stocks like Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), 
KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) and Kullicke and Soffa (NASDAQ:KLIC) all 
saw their shares slip fractionally in after hours trading.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Parsimony Prevails by Jeffrey Canavan

Investors remain skeptical about the economic outlook, and today 
their concerns were justified.  Consumer spending rose an anemic 
0.1%, Sun chimed in with a gloomy outlook, and Corning and 
Charles Schwab announced they would be exacerbating the 
unemployment situation.  When the closing bell finally rang, 
there was evidence of severe bear mastication all over the 
charts.

Dow Jones Industrial Average



It was a dour day for the Dow.  The industrials lost 171 points, 
and plunged through psychological support at 10,000, as well as 
regular support at 9,970. The Dow did manage to climb off its 
lows, but the damage has been done.  

Nasdaq Composite Daily Chart



The Nasdaq fell 2.79% today, and easily took out last week's low.  
It hasn't quite filled the gap from April 10th, but is only 34 
points away from doing so. Holding above 1,757 would be a small 
victory for the Nasdaq to end the week on.

The last two days of August have been abysmal the last few years, 
and so far the pattern has held.  Tomorrow's action could hinge 
on the Chicago Purchasing Mangers Index, and University of 
Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which are released at 9:45 and 10:00 
AM EST.

After hours conference calls should cancel each other out after 
Novellus said they will meet financial targets, but bookings will 
come in at the low end of expectations.  Rambus confirmed it's 
fourth quarter guidance, and TiVo posted a narrower than expected 
loss.

It should be a light volume day, which would limit the 
possibility of any significant rallies.  There is the possibility 
of a short covering rally in the afternoon, since bears might be 
happy to take profits ahead of the holiday weekend.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

VIX   28.08
VXN   52.28

The VIX and VXN are starting to move, but are still well shy of 
"fear" levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total           .94        618,088       582,405
Equity Only     .74        520,088       383,066
OEX            1.65         18,157        29,917
QQQ             .58         54,641        31,785

Even with today's sell off, only the total and OEX put/call 
ratios are overly pessimistic.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          34       -      Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    24       -      Bear Confirmed
DOW           36       -      Bull Alert
S&P 500       48       -      Bull Correction  
S&P 100       38       -      Bull Correction  

Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 
30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------


 5-Day Arms Index  1.51
10-Day Arms Index  1.46
21-Day Arms Index  1.46
55-Day Arms Index  1.30

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1065           2025
NASDAQ    1238           2375

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      104             94
NASDAQ     39            180

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,166
NASDAQ   1,729
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Advisory Sentiment 

Bullish  Bearish  Correction  Net   Change 
  46.9%    30.2%    22.9%    16.7%   -3.2%

A bearish reading of 25% to 30%, combined with a bullish reading 
greater than 55% is typically considered bearish by contrairians.  
A net percentage greater than 30% is also viewed as bearish. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/21/01
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500
Flat line.  Commercials' net position hasn't budged in three 
weeks.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
8/07/01      331,881   406,210   (74,329)   (10.07%)
8/14/01      337,327   411,504   (74,177)   ( 9.91%)
8/21/01      342,332   416,372   (74,040)   ( 9.76%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 41,144) - 5/1/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
8/07/01      128,454     53,191   75,263     41.43%
8/14/01      130,432     55,750   74,682     40.11%
8/21/01      134,280     58,785   75,495     39.10%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01
 
NASDAQ-100
Commercials have gotten slightly more bearish.  It looks like a 
range is setting up between (8,000) and (10,000). See chart 
below.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
8/07/01       28,867     38,956   (10,089)  (14.88%)
8/14/01       29,909     37,822   ( 7,913)  (11.68%)
8/21/01       30,348     38,964   ( 8,616)  (12.43%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
8/07/01        9,715     8,098    1,617       9.08%
8/14/01       11,165     9,508    1,657       8.02%
8/21/01       10,499     7,576    2,923      16.17%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials are closing in on their most bullish reading of the 
year, 8,925 set back on May 22nd.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
8/07/01       18,644    13,733    4,911     15.2%
8/14/01       21,652    15,856    5,796     15.5%
8/21/01       22,710    14,625    8,085     21.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
8/07/01        4,841     9,909    (5,068)   (34.36%)
8/14/01        4,441     8,528    (4,087)   (31.51%)
8/21/01        5,059    10,410    (5,351)   (34.59%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01

COT Commercial Net Position Charts





----------------------------------------------------------------- 


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================

Minnesota Mining - MMM Close:$106.75 Change:-2.55 Stop:$111.00

Original Comments When Selected on August 29:

Company Description:
Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing (3M) researches, manufactures and 
markets a wide range of products related to its technology in 
coating and bonding for coated abrasives.  In general this consists 
of applying one material to another, such as abrasive granules to 
paper or cloth (coated abrasives), adhesives to a backing 
(pressure-sensitive tapes), ceramic coating to granular mineral 
(roofing granules), glass beads to plastic backing (reflective 
sheeting) and low-tack adhesives to paper (repositionable notes). 

3M has six operating segments that include industrial (advanced 
adhesives, tapes, and abrasives), transportation, graphics and 
safety (reflective materials, respirators, and optical films), 
health care (drugs, dental, and skin products), consumer and office 
(tape), electro and communications (insulating products), and 
specialty material (gases and plastics) markets.

Fundamentals: 
The consensus analysts' estimate is for the firm to earn $4.56 per 
share this year on sales of $17.1 billion and $5.23 on $18.4 in 
2002.  Last year, earnings came in at $4.68 per share on sales of 
$16.7 billion.  The shares have a forward 2001 P/E of 23, which is 
in line with the industry average of 24.  The MMM PEG 
(Price/Earnings Growth) at 2.02 is higher than the 1.60 industry 
average suggesting the shares are slightly overvalued.  The company 
indicated an annual $2.40 per share dividend.

Why We Like It:  
MMM is one of the best-managed companies around and a long-time 
favorite for value investors. Right now that management is taking a 
$400 million hit to restructure the company to enable it to better 
adapt to changing market conditions.  Despite the changes, as one 
of the largest corporate bellwethers, MMM cannot escape the 
weakening global economy.  This has the shares under selling 
pressure.  They've dropped from a 52-week high of $127.00 on May 
17th to Wednesday's $106.75 close.  Since mid-July the shares have 
been in a trading range of roughly $112 and $107.  Tech freaks 
should note the upper figure represents a 50-percent retracement 
from the May high further reinforcing the strength of it as a level 
of resistance.  

On Wednesday the shares produced a downside breakout with a close 
of $106.75 on rising volume.  This break may be small, but the 
repercussions are great.  It represents a triple bottom breakout 
and a reversal of a long-term bullish trend that has been cooking 
since October 2000.  According to a study by Professor Earl Davis 
of Purdue, Triple Bottoms are profitable 93.5-percent of the time 
with average gain of 23-percent within 2.4 months.  This makes them 
one of the most reliable of chart formations.  In the short term 
this sets up a likely move to resistance at $105 or $100 on its way 
to our longer term $94 bearish objective.  If you would like to get 
a look at the point & figure chart on MMM, our master strategist 
Jeff Bailey has included it in today's Market Wrap.  Long-term 
investors who can stand the heat will no see a bullish reversal 
until $118.  Shorter-term traders want to have a stop on either 
side of the $111.87 200-day moving average depending on their 
tolerance of risk.  We are going to peg our initial stop at 
$111.00.  

Updated Comments:

The triple bottom breakdown has been confirmed and shares of
MMM closed below its next level of support at $105.  Okay, it
may not have been the strongest level of support but the 
stock still closed below it.  Volume was slightly above average
and bears are probably aiming for $100 as their next target.
With the Dow below 10,000 the odds of MMM falling further are 
growing for the bears.

Picked on August 29th @ $106.75
Gain since picked:      +  2.55
Earnings Date:             N/A  






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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 08-30-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/5021_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Split Trader
  Split Announcements: Concord EFS - CEFT 
  New Plays: none
  Play Updates: AHC, LEN, OMG, THQI, STJ
  Closed Plays: NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA 

Net Bulls
  New Plays: Qualcomm  - QCOM (Bearish)
  Bullish Play Updates: No active bullish tech plays
  Bearish Play Updates: MEDI, MMM, 
  Closed Plays: Integrated Silicon - ISSI

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: Phillip Morris - MO (Bullish)
  Bullish Play Updates: NEM, PEP, 
  Bearish Play Updates: FITB, PCAR, TCB
  Closed Plays: Ultimate Electronics  - ULTE

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) 

=================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

===================
Split Announcements
===================

Thursday, August 30, 2001  4:39 PM EST

Split Candidate Declares 2-for-1 Stock Split

Split traders received the awaited-for announcement from Concord 
EFS (Nasdsq:CEFT) after the closing bell today. The Board 
approved a 2-for-1 split of the Company's common shares, marking 
the ninth stock split in Concord's history. Additional shares 
will be distributed on September 28, 2001 and the stock will 
trade on a split-adjusted basis on October 1, 2001.

Currently the Company has 251.6 million shares outstanding, a 
float of 216.3 million, and 750 million shares are authorized for 
issuance (increased from 500 million in April 2001). The last 
stock split was a 3:2 executed in September 1999 at $35.88.

Concord announced earlier today that it will lose the contract 
with Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC) for automatic teller 
machine services. Company representatives stated that earnings or 
revenue will not be affected and current analyst forecasts are 
not out of line.

The stock topped out on Monday at $58 then fell sharply with most 
of the market to today's low of $51.54, finally closing the day 
at $52.21 on heavy volume of 5.3M shares. 

About the Company:

Concord is a vertically-integrated electronic transaction 
processor, providing transaction authorization, data capture, 
settlement and funds transfer services to financial institutions, 
supermarkets, petroleum retailers, convenience stores, and other 
independent retailers. Concord news releases, links to SEC 
filings, and other information are available on its corporate web 
site at www.concordefs.com. (company press release)

chart = 
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/tools/charts/index.asp?symbol=CEFT


===============
ST Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  Split Candidate Updates
  -----------------------

Amerada Hess - AHC - close: 77.71 change: -0.43 stop: 75.80 

The OIX and the OSX may not be looking so hot but shares of AHC
are holding up like a champ.  The recent fire in the Midwest for
Citgo has helped bolster certain oil stocks while raising gas
prices for a lot of us at the pump.  While the current market
environment is not very conducive for long plays if you absolutely
must be long something consider AHC.  We've got a very tight stop
at 75.80 so our potential loss should be very limited.  The
reason AHC may be a winner is its relative strength to the
market.  The Dow is down over 500 points this week and AHC is
still holding steady in its sideways channel.  If you're looking
for a better entry point consider a long with a bounce at 76.50 
or wait for the stock to close over $79 again.

Picked on August 15th @ $ 78.90
Gain since picked:      -  1.19
Earnings Date:             N/A  (not confirmed)




---

Lennar - LEN - close: 43.35 change: +0.85 stop: 41.25 *new*

It feels good to actually see a bullish play acting bullish for
a change.  Monday we were concerned over the Existing Home sales
report but it appears that investors aren't willing to give up
on the housing sector just yet.  The last two days have seen
two positive closes and shares have closed above what has become
the latest level of resistance at $43.  The stock still seems 
to be struggling with its 50-dma but buyers boosted the share
price above it by the close today.  Volume was stronger than
normal with 1.2 million shares versus the average 905K.  The
intraday high for LEN was 44.25 as it slowly fights to reach
our first target of $45.  If this stock fits your style of 
trading consider a bounce between $42 and $43 or a close over
$44 as a potential entry point.  We're going to raise our stop
to 41.25 or just below Tuesday's low to help protect ourselves.

Picked on August 16th @ $ 40.66
Gain since picked:       + 2.69
Earnings Date:          09/19/01 (not confirmed)




---

OM Group, Inc. - OMG - close: 63.60 change: -1.45 stop: 63.00

Warning!  Shares of OMG have fallen to the tide of negativity 
usually produced with the Dow loses over 500 points in four 
days.  Currently the stock has closed just outside the bottom 
of its ascending channel.  This is a big red flag for the bulls.
We would not recommend any new plays and current longs should
not let this one slip past their stops.  The $63 level really
should act as decent support and if you're willing to wait for
a bounce there then you may want to slip your stop a nickel or
two below it.  

Picked on August 21st @ $ 64.50
Gain since picked:       - 0.90
Earnings Date:              N/A  (not confirmed)




---

THQ Inc - THQI - close: 51.95 change: -0.90 stop: 46.00

The constant stream of good news for the gaming sector
and more specifically those suppliers that are catering to
giants like Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo has managed to keep
THQI sheltered from the beating going on in the markets.
If you think we're positive on THQI's prospects, you're right.
However, we would strongly consider not initiating any new
long plays in this environment.  Yes, if the market produces
a nice relief rally then stocks like THQI who have shown 
decent relative strength may do well.  But is it worth the
risk?  Looking at a chart of THQI we see that the 50-dma is
putting pressure on the stock and bulls are going to have a
hard time getting to $55 if the rest of the market keeps
sliding.  Be patient.  If you have to play (the market - not
the video games) consider this... a bounce at $50 or a positive
close over $55 may be your two best bets to play THQI right
now.  One more thing, if our stop at $46 is too wide for you
then move yours up.  The name of the game right now is
capital preservation.

Picked on August 24th @ $ 51.45
Gain since picked:       + 0.55
Earnings Date:              N/A  (not confirmed)




---

St. Jude Medical - STJ - close: 68.90 change: +0.10 stop: 65.50

Healthcare stocks continue to garner interest as investors look
for "safe havens" during these market declines.  STJ actually
closed in the green on Thursday after bouncing for the second
day in a row at 68.50.  While our stop at 65.50 may be a bit 
wide for short-term traders a tighter stop and an entry point 
right here doesn't look bad.  For the rest of us, we would suggest
waiting for a positive close over $70.  Since we have a slightly
longer outlook on the stock the newsletter is going to leave
the stop at 65.50 for now.

Picked on August 30th @ $ 69.85
Gain since picked:       - 0.95
Earnings Date:              N/A  (not confirmed)




===============
ST Closed Plays
===============

  ----------------------
  Closed Split Run Plays
  ----------------------

NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 84.01 change: -0.27 stop: 83.00 

It was bound to happen in these markets.  Our play on NVDA has
been stopped out.  We're not surprised with the Dow down 504 points
or 4.8% and the NASDAQ down 121 points or 6.3% in just four days.
We would have been fine if we had left the stop at $79 but we 
wanted to move it up and lower any potential loss if the markets
crashed on us.  Our play results may not look too great on NVDA
but we hope our readers took advantage of the entry points 
outlined in the updates and captured the gain up to $90 earlier 
this week.  We still like the stock as a long play but need to wait 
for market conditions to be more favorable for bullish strategies.  
Don't forget that NVDA has a 2:1 stock split taking place on 
Tuesday, Sept. 11th.  If the market can post a two or three day 
relief rally then nimble traders should be able to capture any 
move in NVDA ahead of the split.

Picked on August 22nd @ $ 84.79
Gain since picked:       - 1.79
Earnings Date:             8/14 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  ------------------------
  New Bearish (Short) Play
  ------------------------

Qualcomm  - QCOM Close:$59.59 Change:-3.13 Stop: $65.00

Company Description:
Qualcomm created the code-division multiple access (CDMA) standard 
for wireless networks.  CDMA-based networks account for 12-percent 
of the worlds' mobile subscribers.  Qualcomm collects royalties for 
CDMA use and makes CDMA-based products such as chipsets and 
software.   Although, the US is a Qualcomm stronghold, it is 
working hard to expand in Asia, in particular China, off of its 
dominance in South Korea.  This effort got a big boost recently 
when China Unicom, China's second largest wireless operator, 
awarded $1.46 billion in contracts for equipment to build a cdma-
based network.  The Chinese adoption of cdma is seen as crucial for 
Qualcomm, because as it is also critical for the adoption of cdma 
throughout Asia.  Unfortunately, on the heels of the good news was 
an announcement that Verizon Wireless was switching from cdma to a 
rival technology based on wCDMA.  

Fundamentals:
Analysts project the company, which earned $1.05 in the fiscal year 
ended September 2000, will earn $1.04 in 2001 and $1.28 in 2002.  
This gives the company a forward P/E of 57.  

Why We Like It:  
Normally, the news that China Unicom approved 19 firms to sell 
mobile phones based on Qualcomm's CDMA technology would set QCOM 
shares on a big-time bull run, instead the shares dropped $3.13.  
The culprits were a miserable market environment and news that 
Kyocera was laying off 10,000 workers.  A chunk of those cuts were 
going to come out of the handset division they bought from 
Qualcomm.  Qualcomm cannot collect royalties on phones Kyocera 
can't sell.   Under these circumstances longs are going to have a 
tough time sustaining QCOM shares lofty valuation.  That sell off 
began in earnest on Thursday when the shares opened at just under 
the $62.11 200-day moving average, rallied to $62.95 in the first 
30-minutes, then dropped like a rock in the ocean for the remainder 
of the trading session.  More importantly for short-side traders 
the shares produced a triple bottom breakdown.  Our analysis 
suggests a short-term bearish price target of $56 with good 
potential for a run to $50.  We will start this play with a loose 
stop at $65.  This is the price that would confirm a bullish 
reversal. Conservative traders could consider a tighter stop just 
above the before mentioned 200 dma.

Picked on August 30th at $59.59
Earnings Date             11/06 (Not Confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -------------------------------
  NB Bearish (Short) Play Updates
  -------------------------------

MedImmune, Inc. - MEDI - close: 41.31 change: +0.66 stop: 42.75

Shares of MEDI continue to trade in a tight range with bulls
winning at $40 and the bears winning at $42.  Unfortunately for
the bulls, the 200-dma is still creeping lower and acting as 
overhead resistance.  Players may want to wait for the stock 
to close back under the $40 mark before initiating any new
short plays.  The BTK.X has been holding up a little too well
the last two days and that is cause for concern.  Do not play
without a stop!

Picked on August 28th @ $40.46
Gain since picked:      - 0.85
Earnings Date:           10/24 (not confirmed)




---

3M - MMM - close: 104.20 change: -2.55 stop: 111.00

The triple bottom breakdown has been confirmed and shares of
MMM closed below its next level of support at $105.  Okay, it
may not have been the strongest level of support but the 
stock still closed below it.  Volume was slightly above average
and bears are probably aiming for $100 as their next target.
With the Dow below 10,000 the odds of MMM falling further are 
growing for the bears.

Picked on August 29th @ $106.75
Gain since picked:      +  2.55
Earnings Date:              N/A  




===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  ---------------------------
  Closed Bullish (Long) Play
  ---------------------------

Integrated Silicon - ISSI - cls: 14.78 chg: -0.82 stop: 15.25 

Gapping lower, shares of ISSI could not bear the weight of a
fourth down day for the NASDAQ nor another day in the red for
the SOX.  The opening bid may have been 15.30 giving some of us
hope but we were quickly stopped out at 15.25.  What we find 
interesting is the late day turnaround in ISSI.  The stock found
support at the 14.50 level and was climbing up again by the close.
Until Wednesday, ISSI had been out performing most of the semis.
We would keep this one on our watch list for the next couple of 
weeks to see if it can rebound.  The stock should find support
at $14 where it is bolster by the 200-dma.  Those traders less
greedy than ourselves could have captured a 9% gain at the
apex of ISSI's trading from our August 16th pick.  

Picked on August 16th @ $15.10
Gain since picked:      + 0.15
Earnings Date:             N/A  





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -------------------------
  New Bullish (Long) Plays
  -------------------------

Phillip Morris - MO Close:$47.94 change:+0.71 Stop:$45.00

Company Description:
Philip Morris is the world's largest tobacco firm.  It owns half of 
the US tobacco market and the Marlboro name is one of the world's 
most recognizable brands. It also makes the Benson & Hedges, 
Parliament, and Virginia Slims brands.  Outside of tobacco, Philip 
Morris owns 84-percent of Kraft Foods, the world's second largest 
food company that makes leading brands such as Jell-O, Kool-Aid, 
Maxwell House, and Post cereal.  In 2000 the company bought 
Nabisco, adding brands such as Chips Ahoy, Oreo, and Ritz to 
Kraft's food portfolio.  In addition, Philip Morris owns Miller 
Brewing, the second largest US beer producer.

Fundamentals: 
Analysts project Phillip Morris will earn $4.05 per share in 2001 
and $4.57 in 2002.  Last year, the company produced earnings of 
$3.71 per share.  This gives the company a low forward 2001 P/E of 
11.81, which is in line even with the industry average P/E of 11.7. 
Other valuation ratios such as Price/Book, Price/Cash Flow and 
gross profit margin are also inline with industry averages.

Why We Like It: 
It's tough to go long when Kodi the Bear is on the prowl, but if 
you do, a company that just fattened its dividend to 9.4-percent 
should be high on your shopping list.  In a world of plunging 
equity prices and sub 5.5-percent bond yields, getting a safe 9.4-
percent with the potential for equity appreciation is not a bad 
option.  More aggressive investors may even consider selling some 
out-of-the-money calls to earn an additional premium.  On 
Wednesday, Phillip Morris announced shareholders of record on 
September 17 would receive a quarterly dividend of 58-cents a 
share.  On an annualized basis, this increases their dividend from 
$2.12 to $2.32 per share and gives MO shares the highest dividend 
of the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrials.   For short-term 
traders, it also means that between now and September 17th, Phillip 
Morris shares are more likely to go up than down.  This bullish 
momentum is not new.  The shares have been rising since bouncing 
off of $43.05 support on August 16th.  An opportunity to take a 
position at a better price than the $47.94 close may occur on 
Friday.  Although the shares were up strongly in the morning hours 
to a $48.46 high they did fade somewhat before the close.  Although 
we are unlikely to see significant downward pressure, dips are 
possible and should be considered buying opportunities.  We will 
start this play with a stop at $45.00, which is just below the 
$45.80 200-day moving average.

Picked on August 30th at $ 47.94
Earnings Date              10/17 (Not Confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------------
  Bullish(Long) Play Updates
  --------------------------

Newmont Mining NEM Close:$20.86 Gain:-0.08 Stop:$20.40

The Gold Index gained 0.54% today, but Newmont Mining was unable to 
post a gain.  Part of the decline can be blamed on a problem at one of 
Newmont's mines.  Production was temporarily halted at a Nevada mine 
after slope movement on the south wall.  There were no injuries, but 
the mine, which produces 1000 ounces of gold a day, will be shut for 
several days pending federal and state inspection. 

Picked on July 14th at $20.50
Gain since picked:      +0.36
Earnings Date            11/1/01 (unconfirmed)




Pepsi PEP Close:$47.25 Gain:+0.26 Stop:$46.50

Pepsi was one of the 1,071 stocks that advanced at the NYSE today, 
gaining 26 cents.  We'll take what we can get on a day when the Dow 
lost 171 points, especially since Pepsi came within one cent of 
triggering our stop yesterday.

Picked on August 10th at $45.66
Gain since picked:        +1.59
Earnings Date               N/A




  ------------------
  Bearish (Short) Play Updates
  ------------------

Fifth Third Bancorp FITB Close:$58.11 Gain:-0.10 Stop:$62.00

Banks still look week, but after a five-day decline, the Banking 
Index has found support at 200-day moving average.  Once that 
support level is taken out of the way, FITB should be cleared to 
fall further.

Picked on August 28th at $59.30
Gain since picked:        +1.19
Earnings Date              N/A




---

PACCAR PCAR Close:$53.70 Gain:-0.10 Stop:$56.00

After trimming inventory levels, PACCAR reported that they are 
boosting production of heavy trucks to meet demand.  Even with 
that news PCAR couldn't move higher closed down 10 cents.  When a 
stock reacts poorly to good news, it's usually a bad sign.

Picked on August 17th at $55.46
Gain since picked:        +1.76
Earnings Date              N/A




---

TCF Financial TCB Close:$45.39 Gain:+0.12 Stop:$47.25 NEW 

TCF Financial used today's strength in the bank sector to take a 
small break from its decline.  The stock only gained 12 cents 
today, and isn't in any immediate danger of reversing into an up 
trend.  Initial resistance should be $46, and any bounces should 
come up short of $47.  Accordingly, we are lowering our stop to 
$47.25.

Picked on August 24th at $47.60
Gain since picked:        +2.21
Earnings Date              N/A





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  ----------------
  Closed Long Play
  ----------------


Ultimate Electronics  - ULTE Close:$27.90 Gain:+0.35 Stop:$27.25

ULTE was down $1.01 today before rallying to close up $0.35.  
Unfortunately the stock dipped below our stop, so we are out.

Picked on August 24th at $28.55
Gain since picked:        -1.30
Earnings Date               N/A





==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

  ---------------------------------
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  ---------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
VGR       Vector Group              44.95  +2.25
RJR       Rj Reynolds Tobacco       58.13  +1.38
FST       Forest Oil                26.50  +1.50
LD        Louis Dryfus Natural Gas  34.00  +2.77
LEN       Lennar                    43.35  +0.85
HKF       Hancock Fabrics Inc        8.13  +0.57

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
SM        Sulzer Medica Ltd Ads      7.95  +1.29
ROXI      Roxio Inc                 15.31  +1.46

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
VGR       Vector Group              44.95  +2.25
BMET      Biomet Inc                28.05  +1.60
AMG       Affiliated Managers Group 71.90  +4.60
HTLD      Heartland Express Inc     27.57  +2.06
ADVP      Advancepcs                76.12  +1.45
FST       Forest Oil                26.50  +1.50

  -----------------------------------------
   Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
 -------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
IBM       IBM                       100.36  -3.77
CCMP      Cabot Microelectronics     71.51  -2.79
PSFT      Peoplesoft Inc             31.95  -2.25
VIA       Viacom Inc                 42.00  -1.88
SMTF      Smartforce Plc Adr         27.72  -1.29

  ------------------------------------------------------------
   Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
  -------------------------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
AGN       Allergan Inc               73.49  -1.41
MHC       Manufactured Home Comm     29.35  -0.33
AA        Alcoa Inc                  37.49  -0.51
LOW       Lowe's Compnaies           36.50  -1.12
HOTT      Hot Topic Inc              33.21  -0.88

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