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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 09/18/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 09-18-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap: Government yet to define potential aid
Market Sentiment: Stable But Indecisive 
Play-of-the-Day: Campbell Soup Co - CPB (Bullish)

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       9-18-2001           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8903.40 - 17.30  9022.06  8861.05  1.9 bln    1226/1936
NASDAQ   1555.08 - 24.47  1605.06  1548.85  1.8 bln    1441/2303
S&P 100   526.80 -  2.30   533.74   524.25   Totals    2667/4239
S&P 500  1032.74 -  6.03  1046.42  1029.25
RUS 2000  411.66 -  6.01   419.25   410.18
DJ TRANS 2217.07 - 54.61  2296.21  2212.88
VIX        42.50 -  2.44    46.59    41.70
VXN        74.74 +  1.48    75.32    72.28
TRIN        1.09 
Put/Call Ratio      0.989
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Government yet to define potential aid
by Jeff Bailey

This afternoon, Norm Mineta (Transportation Secretary) held a 
"Transportation and Airlines News Conference" in order to bring 
investors and reporters up to speed on the process currently 
underway regarding a potential federal aid program for the 
airline industry.  Many market participants have been anxiously 
awaiting news from the current administration regarding potential 
Federal aid, but there was no disclosure of potential aid.  

Mr. Mineta did say that a panel of industry representatives 
(corporate executives from the airline group) had recently 
gathered to discuss financial needs of companies that had been 
adversely affected by recent events in the U.S.  Mr. Mineta noted 
that the panel discussed many issues regarding past and future 
costs of insurance that airlines carry pertaining to their 
liability for air travel customers, fuel costs and other fixed 
costs.  Those fixed costs have adversely affected the group as 
their revenues came to an abrupt halt in the past week, putting 
thier bottom lines at risk.  Mr. Mineta said that he will be 
submitting some preliminary estimates to Congress regarding 
short-term and longer-term financial needs of the industry.

At the time of the press conference, many of the broader market 
averages had been showing gains, but soon after the press 
conference ended, sellers came to the table.

It may have just been "coincidence" that we saw selling due to 
lack of immediate guidance, but to some investors, it may have 
been hard to imagine that some of the world's largest airlines 
are so close to financial trouble after a 5-day travel 
restriction.  

Yes, many travelers have cancelled previous bookings, but to 
think that a 5-day travel halt could have some companies 
threatening bankruptcy is staggering to many.  Me included.  
Perhaps it was this type of realization that had stocks souring 
when the press conference ended without any hard numbers.  
Nonetheless, the AMEX Airline Index (XAL.X) did manage to finish 
in positive territory and posted a 2.17% gain to 71.37.

Bond watch

We did see selling in Treasury bonds today, but that selling 
didn't take hold today.  It's too soon to tell if today's selling 
in the bond market was to pay for stocks bought yesterday by some 
institutions.  The 30-year bond YIELD ($TYX.X) rose to 5.511%, 
the 10-year jumped to $4.705% and the 5-year ($FVX.X) rose to 
3.927%.  The 13-week ($IRX.X) fell to 2.45%.  The action there 
told a story that there is still some money that is concerned 
about things near-term and willing to forgo potential gains in 
the stock market, option for a low YIELD and perceived safety 
short-term.

Currencies

For the most part, the US$ held firm for most of the trading 
session.  But much like the stock market, we saw the US$ lose 
strength by sessions end to the Swiss Franc.  We moved to the 
December contract (sf01z) and will note that the Swiss Franc 
gained strength over and above yesterday's trading.  Per 
yesterday's "market wrap" this is a concern short-term and 
perhaps gives some hint that there are some concerns regarding 
the US$.  Today's action in currencies wasn't "alarming," but 
traders are most likely skittish enough to be keeping a close eye 
on things.

Gold

Gold was relatively quiet today and not much happened here.  The 
December 2001 Gold contract (gc01z) showed a loss of $1.80/oz to 
$289.70.  Investors can perhaps breath a sigh of relief that this 
commodity did not rise with some of the weakness we saw in the 
US$ and the weakness that was found late in the session for 
stocks.  Nonetheless, it's worth mentioning per yesterday's 
market wrap.

Crude Oil

The December Light, Sweet Crude Oil contract (cl01z) ticked ever 
so slightly higher today to $28.15 (+$0.12) and it would be a 
good sign for the consumer should the price of oil fall further.  
With some economic uncertainty being exacerbated recently, U.S. 
consumers don't need higher energy prices.

Oil service stocks took it on the chin today as the Oil Service 
Index (OSX.X) fell 6.66% to 71.29.  My view here is that the past 
cuts in production by OPEC in recent months were indeed "bad 
news" for the group.  As the economies around the world have 
shown economic slowing, so had this groups demand for services.  
We'll keep an eye on this group overtime, and a rebound could 
give hint to some economic strengthening.  The thought process 
here is that a weakening in the OSX.X 

Oil Service Index - last eleven months




There are some "attractive" looking stocks in the oil service 
sector, but this group of stocks remains in a substantial 
downtrend.  The bar chart shows some buyers may have rushed to 
judgment in the group yesterday morning and today they paid the 
price.  While the group looks cheap after a 50% drop in a six 
month time frame, the $50 lows found in the latter part of 1998 
during the "Asian Flu" may be tested.  

One day at a time

Once again, we're taking things one step at a time and many 
investors seem to be taking a wait and see approach.  There are 
some hefty wounds that need to heel.  Not only as it pertains to 
recent events terrorist events, but also financial losses.  There 
is so much news yet to be announced regarding potential fallout, 
that many investors are wise to let that news trickle out into 
the market.

Undoubtedly there are many stocks that have discounted future 
negative news, but there are probably some stocks where the full 
ramifications are yet to be known.  Reports of some hedge funds 
using yesterday's losses to leverage off of for further gain to 
the downside may have come into play today.  The Dow Industrials 
traded a smidge over the 9,000 level at one point (approximately 
30 minutes) until selling squashed the rally there.  

Since the markets opened for trading on Monday, we've now seen 
two mini-attempts by the Dow Industrials to stage a comeback.  On 
Monday it was a rally attempt from the 9,000 level to the 9,150 
area, then today's attempt from 8,875 to 9,000.  So far, both 
attempts have seen a violation of the previous low.  Until that 
pattern changes, bullish traders need to exercise some prudent 
account management.  Right now its much easier to point out some 
technical levels of resistance than it is levels of support.  In 
any economic environment this makes for very difficult 
risk/reward assessment and will have many investors staying on 
the sidelines.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Stable But Indecisive
by Jeffrey Canavan

It wasn't the big snapback rally that everyone was hoping for, 
but stocks are starting to show signs of stabilization.

Dow Jones Industrial Daily Chart




The Dow briefly resided above 9,000, but closed down 17 points at 
8,903.  A close above 9,000 would have helped investor 
psychology, but we did get the second day of a possible morning 
star candlestick pattern.  This three-day reversal pattern starts 
with a steep decline on day one.  Day two a small candle forms 
just below the first day's close as indecision takes over.  
Confirmation should come on day three with a long white candle.  
Without confirmation tomorrow, today's close just marks a day of 
indecision.

Market Volatility Index Weekly Chart




One thing missing from recent attempts at a bottom was worried 
bullish investors.  For months the Market Volatility Index (VIX), 
which measures the level of fear in the markets, resided at low 
levels that suggested complacency.  Now the VIX has jumped to 
fearful levels not seen since October of 1998.  This doesn't 
guarantee a bottom, but does suggest that a lot of sellers have 
been shaken out.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio




The CBOE Put/Call Ratio has also climbed to overly bearish levels 
not seen since October of 1998.  Past performance does not 
guarantee future results, but readings over 1.00 have generally 
led to market turning points.

S&P 500 Bullish Percent Chart




Lastly, bullish percent data for the S&P 500, the number of 
stocks trading on a buy signal on their point and figure charts, 
is at historically oversold levels.  This indicator could fall 
lower like it did in 1998, but we are certainly oversold.

So have all the sellers been shaken out of the market, leaving 
only buyers?  I'm not going out on that limb, but bearish traders 
might want to stay on their toes for a reversal.  Bullish traders 
should start lining up stocks they feel have been unjustly sold, 
but that four-letter stock CASH looks pretty good for the next 
few days.  Until the fog clears, keep positions small.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

VIX   42.50
VXN   74.74

-----------------------------------------------------------------
 
          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          1.13        875,143       989,123
Equity Only    1.03        723,282       744,140
OEX            1.02         38,825        39,601
QQQ             .77         89,548        68,756

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          26      -6      Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100     6      -6      Bear Confirmed
DOW           24      -4      Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       26     -12      Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       20     -10      Bear Confirmed

Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 
30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------


 5-Day Arms Index  0.97
10-Day Arms Index  1.29
21-Day Arms Index  1.32
55-Day Arms Index  1.28

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1232           1924
NASDAQ    1442           2298

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE       31            332
NASDAQ     15            350

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,672
NASDAQ   1,859
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Advisory Sentiment 

*New data not yet available

Bullish  Bearish  Correction  Net Bullish   Change 
  44.3%    30.9%     24.8%       13.4%       +0.1%

A bearish reading of 25% to 30%, combined with a bullish reading 
greater than 55% is typically considered bearish by contrairians.  
A net percentage greater than 30% is also viewed as bearish. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/10/01

This data is from 9/10/01, and does not reflect positions taken 
after last week's terrorist attacks.  

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

As of last Monday, Commercial traders got 3.4% more bearish.  This 
is still below the most bearish reading of the year, but marks 
three straight weeks of increasing bearishness.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
8/28/01      342,742   421,868   (79,126)   (10.35%)
9/04/01      350,626   430,613   (79,987)   (10.24%)
9/10/01      359,360   442,070   (82,710)   (10.32%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 41,144) - 5/1/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
8/28/01      141,046     58,001   83,045     41.72%
9/04/01      147,080     62,004   85,076     40.69%
9/10/01      156,500     69,090   87,410     38.75%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders dumped 207 short positions, but also dropped 
1,973 long positions, causing the net bearish position to 
increase by 1,766.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
8/28/01       29,255     36,551   ( 7,296)  (11.09%)
9/04/01       28,757     38,119   ( 9,362)  (14.00%)
9/10/01       26,784     37,912   (11,128)  (17.20%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
8/28/01       11,131     9,694    1,437       6.90%
9/04/01       12,341     9,806    2,535      11.45%
9/10/01       15,263    12,555    2,708       9.73% 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

The Dow continues to be the only index with a commercial net 
bullish position.  12,412 is the most bullish reading of the 
year, but that may change next week.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
8/28/01       22,141    14,959    7,182     19.4%
9/04/01       23,459    14,099    9,360     24.9%
9/10/01       25,445    13,033   12,412     32.3% 

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 12,412  - 9/10/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
8/28/01        5,240     9,835    (4,595)   (30.48%)
9/04/01        6,952    12,744    (5,792)   (29.41%)
9/10/01        7,460    12,735    (5,275)   (26.12%) 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01

COT Commercial Net Position Charts





-----------------------------------------------------------------


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

Campbell Soup Co -  CPB Close:$28.94 change:+0.59 Stop:$27.00

Original Comments When Selected On September 17th:

Company Description:
Campbell Soup is the sells more soup than anyone else in the world 
with a 70-percent share of the US market.  Yet this company is 
about more than just the condensed canned soup featured so 
prominently in Andy Warhol's art.  They also make ready-to-serve 
and microwaveable soups in resealable and pop-top containers, Pace 
picante sauce, Pepperidge Farm cookies and goldfish crackers, 
Godiva chocolates, V8 beverages, Prego spaghetti sauce, Swanson 
broths, and Franco-American sauces and SpaghettiOs.  Campbell's 
food service unit sells soup and buns to fast-food restaurants and 
cafeterias. Descendants of John Dorrance, who invented condensed 
soup, own about 50% of Campbell.

Fundamentals: 
The company has been sacrificing some short-term earnings in 
exchange for using its strong cash flow to strengthen their 
competitive position through strategic acquisitions.  After 
earning $1.55 per share in the fiscal year ended July 2001, 
analysts anticipate the firm will earn $1.29 in 2002 and 
$1.35 in 2003.  CPB shares sell for a current P/E of 18 and a 
forward 2002 P/E of 22.  The industry average P/E is 25. The 
company has indicated an annual per share dividend of 90-
cents (or 3.17-percent).

Why We Like It: 
The fall and winter months bring consumers to soup and the bulls to 
shares of this soup maker.  The following tables show the total 
point gain or loss for Campbell by month and also the average gain 
or loss:

Total Point Gain by Month for Campbell Soup (1992-2001)

January   ($22.98)
February  ($ 2.08)
March      $ 3.65
April     ($ 5.29)
May        $ 5.66
June       $ 2.21
July      ($ 0.58)
August    ($ 9.94)
September  $ 7.31
October    $21.31
November   $16.50
December  ($ 1.88)

           Average Point Gain   Average Percentage Gain
January        ($2.30)                  (5.70%)
February       ($0.21)                  (0.21%)
March           $0.36                    1.31%
April          ($0.53)                  (1.79%)
May             $0.57                    2.04%
June            $0.22                    0.06%
July           ($0.06)                  (0.24%)
August         ($1.10)                  (1.80%) 
September       $0.81                    3.81%
October         $2.37                    7.26%
November        $1.83                    5.48%
December       ($0.19)                   0.39%

Clearly, September through November are the months to own a 
position in CPB.  However this year, the shares have been in a slow 
motion rally since mid-August. And despite Monday's record breaking 
drop in the DOW, Campbell Soup shares managed to squeeze out a 9-
cent gain.  It stands to reason that long investors looking for a 
defensive place to park some money will be looking favorably on a 
high dividend play such as Campbell Foods.  Traders should wait for 
a break above resistance at $28.75 or a dip back to $27.75 before 
taking a position.  On the upside path, significant resistance 
exists at the $29.77 200-day moving average and at the early-May 
high near $31.00.  If the shares can push through $31, we see a 
bullish target in the $33 to $34 range.  We will start this play 
with a stop at $27.00, which is just below the $27.33 50-day moving 
average and to the lower end of the late-June/early July 
congestion.   

Updated Comments:

Campbell Soup had a nice day in an otherwise volatile market.  The 
stock gained 2.08%, but more importantly closed above resistance at 
$28.73.  Market and seasonal conditions should continue to make 
soup good food.

Picked on September 17th at $28.35
Gain since picked:           +0.59
Earnings Date                  N/A





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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 07-24-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/091801_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Split Trader
  Split Announcements: none
  New Plays: none
  Play Updates: no active plays
  Closed Plays: none

Net Bulls
  New Play: SBC Communications Inc - SBC (Bullish)
  New Play: Mercury Computer Sys - MRCY (Bearish)
  Bullish Play Updates: none 
  Bearish Play Updates: MEDI, MMM, PSFT
  Closed Plays: RF Micro Devices - RFMD 

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: none
  Bullish Play Updates: Campbell Soup - CPB, Phillip Morris - MO
  Bearish Play Updates: AmeriCredit - ACF, TCF Financial - TCB
  Closed Plays: Clorox - CLX,  Fifth Third Bancorp FITB

Trading Ideas
  Due to technical difficulties with our data provider we are  
  unable to generate the Trading Ideas section.  We have been 
  assured the problem will be rectified and we will resume daily 
  publication of this section on Wednesday.

==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------------
  New Bullish (Long) Play
  -----------------------

SBC Communications Inc - SBC Close:$45.65 change:+1.35 Stop:$44.00

Company Description:
SBC is a telecommunications holding company selling a wide range 
services through subsidiaries.  After Verizon, SBC is the second 
largest local phone company with 61 million phone lines in 13 
states.  It sells through Pacific Bell in California, Southwestern 
Bell in Texas and Ameritech in Illinois.  Its newly formed venture 
with BellSouth called Cingular Wireless makes it the second largest 
wireless provider (behind Verizon again) with 21 million 
subscribers in 38 states.  SBC also provide DSL services with Covad 
and Prodigy and long distance services in Connecticut, Kansas, 
Texas and Oklahoma.  It also has an international presence with 
partial ownership of telecoms in 20 countries.

Fundamentals: 
Last year, the firm earned $2.26 per share on sales of $51.4 
billion.  This year analysts expect the company to earn $2.36 per 
share on sales of $56.7 billion and $2.55 on $64.4 billion in 
2002.With a current P/E of 20 and a forward 2001 one of 19, SBC 
shares are under valued when compared to the industry average P/E 
of 26.  SBC has indicated an annual per share dividend of $1.02 (or 
2.13-percent).

Why We Like It: 
In this nervous market, investors are beginning to rediscover the 
attractive valuation of the well-established telecoms.  They also 
feel the telecoms will benefit from decreased business travel.  The 
bullish momentum of SBC shares began with a $2.43 gain the day 
before Tuesday's disaster and has continued in the two days 
following the reopening of the markets.  Tuesday $1.35 gain 
produced a triple top breakout and fractured the $44.87 200-day 
moving average.  A point and figure analysis shows these shares are 
performing better than the S&P 500 and its peers in the North 
American Telecommunications Index ($XTC).  We have a bullish price 
target of $51 with resistance at $48.  Long term investors can 
start this play with a stop at $41, which would represent a 
reversal of SBC's long-term bullish up trend.  Short-term traders 
should start with a $44 stop just below the before mentioned 200 
dma.

Picked on September 18th at $45.65
Earnings Date                10/22 (Not Confirmed)





  ------------------------
  New Bearish (Short) Play
  ------------------------

Mercury Computer Sys - MRCY Close:$35.87 change:-1.18 Stop:$38.50

Company Description:
Mercury makes real-time digital signal processing systems for the 
defense and medical imaging markets.  Almost 70-percent of sales 
comes from its defense products that enable commanders "see" 
battlefields through clouds, darkness, trees, and water by 
processing radar, sonar, and other signals. Its medical systems 
enable a physician to "see" inside a body rather than performing 
invasive surgery by processing magnetic resonance, tomography, and 
X-ray images. Customers Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop 
Grumman, and GE's Medical Systems division collectively account for 
nearly 60-percent of sales. The company is developing digital TV 
products through AgileVision, a joint venture with a subsidiary of 
SRI International

Fundamentals: 
For the nine months ended 3/31/01, revenues rose 25-percent to 
$131.7 million. Net income increased 9-percent to $22 million.  
Results reflect increased demand for defense electronics products, 
partially offset by higher component and infrastructure costs.  
Last year, the company earned $1.33 per share.  Analysts expect the 
firm to earn $1.22 per share in the fiscal year ended June 2002 and 
$1.67 in 2003.  

Why We Like It: 
This play is for aggressive shorts traders only. Expectations of 
increased levels of defense spending jumped MRCY shares a whopping 
$11.50 or 45-percent when the markets reopened on Monday.  However, 
the shares were unable to hold the session high of $43.60 and gave 
back another $1.18 on Tuesday.  Although Mercury will undoubtedly 
benefit from government spending, we suspect we are looking at a 
classic market overreaction.  The sharp move has left support way 
behind at $26.  Even if the shares do not revisit this level, there 
is a lot of air underneath and a number of suddenly flush bottom 
fishers are likely to want to take profit at the first sign of 
weakness.  As will long-term investors, who after riding the shares 
down from their July $58.95 high, promised themselves they will 
sell if the shares ever give them another chance.  The chance is 
here and nimble short-sellers may have an opportunity to take 
advantage of it.  We think a reasonable bearish target is between 
$27 and $30.  A bullish reversal would occur with a move to $38 and 
would also represent a break of the $37.97 50-day moving average.  
We will start this play with a stop at just above these levels at 
$38.50. 

Picked on September 18th at $35.87
Earnings Date                 N/A (Not Confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------------

MedImmune - MEDI - close: 34.23 change: -0.98 stop: 36.00 *new*

Charts of the Biotech sector and the Semiconductor sector look
eerily alike.  Both began an extended decline on Aug. 28th 
and both paused to find temporary support at the 500 level.
Both have sold off in the last two days as investors cope with
the grim prospect of an already burdened economy.  The biotech
bulls had probably hoped that the mid-August lows near 480 
would have provided more support for the index.  Unfortunately,
the sector is now trading at 442.  If we look to the March/April
lows for direction, we see that the index could go lower as the
March low was 382 while the April low was 407.  MEDI put in a
similar pattern for March and April but its own recent decline
did not begin until early September.  Monday the shares gapped
down but traded off its lows.  Today, shares opened higher but
found selling pressure at $36.  Traders now have a choice.  They
can close the play now at a profit if you assume that the August
low of $33.20 will provide a bottom for MEDI, or looking at the
BTK.X, make a case that the group will continue to see selling
pressure and thus MEDI could see a sub-$30 share price again.
We are willing to bet that there could be more weakness but to
protect our capital and lock in a positive change for the 
newsletter we are going to lower our stop to $36.  Currently,
the play is up $6.23 or 15.3%.  Decide what your profit target
is and trade your plan accordingly.  Before we move on, there
was some positive news for MEDI on Monday as they announced the
beginning of its Phase II clinical trials for its siplizumab drug
for the treatment of psoriasis.  If these trials are fruitful,
then Phase III trials could begin in early 2002.

Picked on August 28th @ $40.46
Gain since picked:      + 6.23
Earnings Date:           10/24 (not confirmed)




---

3M - MMM - close: 94.14 change: -1.31 stop: 97.00 New

Shares of MMM were going to feel a lot of selling pressure merely
by being a Dow component but did you know MMM sells airplanes?
Well they don't but the markets sold all things related to the
air travel business including plane part makers of which MMM must
have at least some small business as Forbes listed them as one
of five Dow components involved in the airplane creation sector.
It is unclear to us just how much MMM's revenues are derived from
the plane building business but as a large conglomerate it is likely 
to feel more pressure from a slowing economy.  The stock lost 
almost seven points on Monday and bargain hunters tried to step
in on Tuesday but they encountered selling pressure at the $97
mark.  Late afternoon saw the stock trading at $93.50.  Today's
close is a new nine-month low for MMM as the stock has not traded
under $95 since November of 2000.  Is the stock oversold?  Absolutely.
Will it rebound from here?  MMM will probably rebound if the Dow
does.  We are going to lower our stop to $97 which will protect
a gain of almost 10 points for the play but still gives the stock
some wiggle room to bounce.  If asked how much lower the stock might
go...we would expect some support in the $90 to $92.50 levels.
If you feel like reaching in the dark you could look for the 200-week 
moving average at $92.00 or the 50-month moving average at $91.81 to
offer some support but we doubt most investors would even care.
Keep your eye on the Dow as a forecast for MMM's direction.   

Picked on August 29th @ $106.75
Gain since picked:      + 12.61
Earnings Date:              N/A  




---

PeopleSoft - PSFT - close: 20.46 change: -4.49 stop: 22.65 *new* 

Reconfirming our comments from the weekend newsletter, the software 
sector was already in weak shape and there has been no improvement 
in earnings forecasts.  Actually things appear to have gone from bad 
to worse.  Monday, Goldman Sachs cut their numbers for the industry 
and singled out PSFT, MSFT, VRTS, BEAS and SEBL.  Goldman's comments 
on PSFT boil down to an estimate of 10 cents a share, down from 15 
cents for 3Q and 50 cents EPS, down from 61 cents for 2001.  Industry 
experts report that software companies usually wrap up 50% of their 
quarterly sales in the last month and some companies complete up to 
40% of their sales in the last two weeks of the quarter.  The 
disaster last week and the airport shutdowns significantly affected 
software vendors abilities to close these deals for the 3Q.  Now on 
the positive side many believe that government spending will improve 
the picture but not until the 2nd half of 2002.  Plus, the attack 
last week might accelerate the move to using the Internet to 
"decentralize information" and PSFT actually said it expects to see 
more business in the future.  On top of it all, PSFT reminded 
investors that its board had approved a $100 million stock buy back 
program last October of which $85 million could still be used.  
Unfortunately, traders seemed to care little for any of the 
positives and shares of PSFT fell almost 18% on Tuesday alone.  
Looking again at the sector, more specifically at the GSO software 
index, the GSO is now at 127 down from 160 in early September and 
down from its May highs near 245.  The down trend has been long and 
painful and the sector has surpassed its April lows.  As a matter 
of fact, our favorite charting service only has the GSO going back 
to July of  1997 and the index has never been below 130.  So what 
are traders to do?  The newsletter team seriously considering 
closing this short on PSFT because we are already up 14 points or 
+40% on the play.  The bad news for software bulls is the downtrend 
is likely to continue.  Therefore instead of cutting our winners 
we're going to lower our stop and give the stock more room to fall. 
 The April low for PSFT was $17.50 and at this rate we could be 
there soon. Obviously the stock is oversold and overdue for a bounce 
and if we get stopped out in a market rebound then so be it.  The 
late afternoon bounce for PSFT around 1:40 p.m. ET was around 
$22.64. We're going to put our stop at $22.65, which is more than 
10% above the current share price.

Picked on August 31st @ $ 34.48
Gain since picked:      + 14.02
Earnings Date:              N/A  





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  -----------------
  Closed Long Plays
  -----------------

RF Micro Devices - RFMD - close: 22.84 change: -0.25 stop: 19.50

We are pulling the plug on our long play for RFMD.  Analysts are
concerned about the chip sector and the semiconductor index
shows it.  The SOX has been in a steady decline since Aug. 28th
but we had hoped investors might offer it support near the 500
level.  Unfortunately, the index has dropped precipitously in the
last two days with a Tuesday drop of 6.3% or 29 points to 435.  
This put the group below what should have been very strong support 
near 450.  April's lows for the SOX were 453 and 455 but by the 
looks of it, the SOX merely paused at the 453 level before sliding 
further.  In contrast, RFMD was actually up on Monday bouncing
off of support at $20.  The stock traded higher today but lost
1% by the close.  We think the relative strength shown by RFMD
may be due to its business in the mobile phone handset sector.
There has been some renewed interest in Nokia the last two days
where some speculate the interest may be fueled by the role mobile 
phones played in last Tuesday's events.  Yesterday there was 
positive comments about the mobile-phone component players as a few 
of them like TQNT, ANAD and RFMD offered some earnings comments last 
week and many now believe these three will meet or beat street 
estimates for the September quarter.  This may be true but today's 
trading in RFMD confirmed the down trending line of resistance as 
seller's continue to unload shares of RFMD when bulls try to get a
rally going.  We would love for RFMD to buck the trend in the chip 
sector and set new highs but we'd probably avoid it for now and wait 
for the stock to close over $25 to $26 before we would reconsider it.
Traders who believe this is a long they don't want to give up on are 
probably okay if they maintain a stop under $20 of if you can stand 
it, there is stronger support at $19.  This should help limit your
losses if the downturn continues.  Hopefully, we're wrong on this
one and the late day bounce off of $22.50 is a sign of things to
come.

Picked on September 7th @ $22.31
Gain since picked:        + 0.53
Earnings Date:             10/25 (not confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  ---------------------------
  Bullish (Long) Play Updates
  ---------------------------

Campbell Soup CPB Close:$28.94 Gain:+0.59 Stop:$27.00

Campbell Soup had a nice day in an otherwise volatile market.  
The stock gained 2.08%, but more importantly closed above resistance 
at $28.73.  Market and seasonal conditions should continue to make 
soup good food.

Picked on September 17th at $28.35
Gain since picked:           +0.59
Earnings Date                  N/A




---

Phillip Morris MO Close:$48.30 Gain:-0.60 Stop:$45.00

Phillip Morris lost 60 cents today, but continues to hold up well 
under difficult market conditions.  Political and financial 
indecision should continue to favor defensive stocks as well as 
stocks with a strong dividend.

Picked on August 30th at $47.94
Gain since picked:        +0.36
Earnings Date            10/17/01 (unconfirmed)




  ----------------------------
  Bearish (Short) Play Updates
  ----------------------------

AmeriCredit - ACF Close:$34.02 Gain:-0.98 Stop:$38.96

AmeriCredit tried mount a rally, but failed to take out yesterday's 
high.  With a big gap now on the chart after Monday's decline, ACF 
has a lot of work to do if it wants to move higher.

Picked on September 7th at $40.00
Gain since picked:          +5.98
Earnings Date                 N/A




---

TCF Financial - TCB Close:$42.38 Gain:+0.84 Stop:$43.00

TCF Financial refuses to drop below the 200-day moving average.  
With the stock 62 cents from our stop, a race is setting up to see 
which will crack first - our stop or support at the 200-dma.

Picked on August 24th at $47.60
Gain since picked:        +3.72
Earnings Date              N/A





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------------
  Closed Bullish (Long) Play
  --------------------------

Clorox CLX Close:$38.00 Gain:-0.53 Stop:$37.00

Clorox dipped below our stop level before quickly rebounding.  
This defensive stock should perform well over the coming weeks, 
but we must honor our stops.

Picked on September 5th at $38.42
Gain since picked:          -1.42
Earnings Date                 N/A




  -----------------
  Closed Short Play
  -----------------

Fifth Third Bancorp FITB Close:$55.58 Gain:+2.08 Stop:$55.80

FITB quickly reversed course today and jumped 3.88%. That was 
enough to stop us out of the stock with a $3.50 gain. 

Picked on August 28th at $59.30
Gain since picked:        +3.50
Earnings Date              N/A





==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

  Due to technical difficulties with our data provider we are  
  unable to generate the Trading Ideas section.  We have been 
  assured the problem will be rectified and we will resume daily 
  publication of this section on Wednesday.


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