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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 09/19/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 09-19-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap: Market thoughts
Market Sentiment: Turnaround
Play-of-the-Day: SBC Communications Inc - SBC (Bullish)
Watch List:.ITRI, BLL, HRB, CMVT

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
        9-19-2001          High      Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8759.13 -144.27  8945.47  8480.21 1.67 bln   1228/1926	
NASDAQ   1527.80 - 27.28  1568.22  1451.31 1.83 bln   1440/2300
S&P 100   518.85 -  7.95   529.92   500.87   Totals   2668/4226
S&P 500  1016.10 - 16.64  1038.91   984.62             
RUS 2000  503.20 -  8.46   413.44   391.38
DJ TRANS 2165.86 - 51.21  2247.68  2104.63
VIX        43.22 +  0.72    47.62    40.80 
VXN        76.93 +  2.19    78.28    72.84
TRIN        0.88 
Put/Call    0.67
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Market thoughts
by Jeff Bailey

I want to continue to update everyone on what looks to be taking 
place.  Here's a look at what I feel are some of the more 
important events and dynamics taking place and builds on what we 
talked about last week during the markets trading halt.

Bonds:  We did see some buying in bonds today.  The YIELD on the 
13-week, 5-year and 10-year were all lower.  The YIELD on the 30-
year was higher, so we are still seeing some selling in the long 
end.  In essence, the MARKET has been shedding some of the 
longer-end Treasuries (riskier part of bond market).  The 5-year 
YIELD is lower today than it was on Monday and this has me 
believing that many market participants are nervous regarding the 
state of things.  

Currency:  This is what is a little unnerving and what I think 
had the market seeing some hefty selling before Dow Industrials 
8,480 was achieved (38.2% retracement).  The US$ was weak against 
most foreign currencies today and this needs to change.  The US$ 
lost nearly 0.65% versus the Swiss Franc and this is exactly what 
we DID NOT want to see.  There's enough warning here as it 
relates to our earlier commentary regarding US$/Swiss Franc to 
have us only looking for a short-term rally.

Tomorrow, if we see Dow Futures rally in pre-market and then see 
the US$ gain some strength back verses the Swiss Franc, then that 
should help fuel a rally as some "fears" are calmed.  As we look 
at the 10-minute chart of the US$/Swiss Franc, you can see how 
its price action really affected things today.  Remember that Dow 
Futures were positive this morning.  Note how the 10-minute chart 
shows a gap down in the currency chart (US$ strong vs. Swiss 
Franc), but as soon as the Swiss Franc showed strength, that's 
when the Dow Industrials and other indexes went south.  The 
reason I show the 10-minute chart is to NOT make day trader's out 
of everyone, but to drive home the point of how many traders may 
be making buy/sell decisions or at least shaping their trading 
scenarios.

Swiss Franc (Dec 2001 Futures) - 10-minute chart





The 10-minute chart shows us a history of just how fast the 
markets are to react to "market moving" events and gives traders 
and investors interesting insight into how the Swiss Franc/US$ 
relationship gives hint to how the MARKET is thinking about 
things.  Traders need to remember that the above currency chart 
ends at 03:00 PM EST, and stocks were still trading until 04:00 
PM EST today.  A trader that begins to build some trading 
scenarios using the Swiss Franc/US$ relationship perhaps draws a 
conclusion that today's late session rally in the Dow Industrials 
was technical and perhaps just some short covering and locking in 
of profits at a retracement level.  To have that short covering 
continue and build into a rally, a trader will want to see the 
US$ gain back some ground against the Swiss Franc.

Industrials rally from rolling retracement

With 90-minutes left in the trading session, the markets turned 
rather decidedly, but equity bulls need to remain cautious.  Was 
it a technical bounce, or was it news that the United States had 
dispatched warplanes to the Persian Gulf?  We'll never know for 
sure, but for the first time since markets resumed trading here 
in the U.S. on Monday, we can now start putting together some 
BULLISH trading strategies for a short-term trading rally.

On Monday, when the Dow Industrial Average (INDU) broke below its 
March lows of 9,106, investors dug deep into their toolbox of 
trading techniques and began rolling down their retracement 
brackets.  In today's OptionInvestor.com's "market monitor" we 
made comment that the Dow Industrials had just tested the 8,481 
level and perhaps some buy programs had been triggered.

Dow Industrials Chart - last nine months





Last week we used some historical research to try and get a grasp 
of how certain groups of stocks/commodities acted during similar 
market environments.  We can do the same thing on a more 
technical level as it relates to the Dow Industrials too.  One 
could argue that the 30 components of the Dow Industrials are 
somewhat representative of the U.S. economy or at least a stock 
investors "best choice" for stock stability in tough economic 
times.  

In late March, the Dow Industrials looks like they were going in 
the tank.  "Things will only get worse" was the general 
consensus.  All of a sudden, something changed and the Dow 
Industrials staged an impressive three-day rally.  Do you see 
some of the technical similarities in the above chart from March 
that present themselves today?

Now, history is no guarantee of the future, but how should a 
trader have played that move back in March?  No, he/she shouldn't 
have "loaded the boat" and just held on.  Let's be rational and 
really look at a more prudent investment/trading strategy.  What 
we did or should have done in March, is exactly what we do or 
might want to do tomorrow.  That would be..... dip our toe in the 
water with a bullish trade or two, with the mindset of a 3-day 
rally (if the Dow Industrials rally to 9,700 for 10 days then we 
can take that too), but if history doesn't repeat itself, I don't 
want to have loaded the boat and get stopped out on a break below 
today's low (note today's low of 8,480 came just under 38.2% 
retracement of 8,481).

Levels of Oversold

Now we pull in some bullish percent data.  Since we're looking at 
the Dow Industrials, lets get a feel for how "oversold" the 
Industrials are as it relates to the percentage of stocks in the 
Dow Industrials (there are just 30 stocks in the Dow) that 
currently have their point/figure charts showing a buy signal.  
Here we see that there are just 6 stocks of the 30 that have 
their charts showing a "buy signal."  Those symbols are Johnson 
and Johnson (JNJ), Coca Cola (KO), McDonald's (MCD), Proctor 
Gamble (PG), SBC Communications (SBC), and AT&T (T).

Hmmmm....two telecom stocks in the Dow Industrials and both 
showing buy signals on their point and figure charts.  Probably 
means nothing.

Dow Industrials Bullish % Chart - 2% scale





The bullish percent chart for the Dow Industrials gives hint that 
we're not as "oversold" as we were back in late March of this 
year.  As we look at other index bullish percent charts though, 
perhaps this gives hint that this is then EXACTLY where a bullish 
trader should be concentrating.  The NASDAQ-100 bullish percent 
($BPNDX) chart is more OVERSOLD than it was in March (based on 
the bullish percent data) as is the S&P 500 bullish percent 
($BPSPX).

I'll argue until I'm blue in the face!

I must say that is makes me a little angry when I get an e-mail 
saying "who cares about that boring stock?"  I learned a long 
time ago that I don't trade/invest in a stock because it's 
"flashy."  I trade a stock because I think I can make money in 
it!  I've seen "boring" stocks drastically outperform the market 
to the upside only because the MARKET was interested in it, even 
though some traders/investors never considered the stock because 
it just wasn't considered "flashy enough."

Under current market conditions, most traders/investors should be 
looking for stocks where they can limit downside losses to a 
MINIMUM, while exposing their capital to a stock that is gaining 
favor where they have the best probability of realizing a gain.  
Where traders/investors get into trouble is that they focus on 
their losses and try to make those losses back in one quick 
swoop.  When the "3-day rally" doesn't occur, they're stuck with 
another loser that the MARKET wasn't interested in to begin with.

Market Psychology

Right now, a bullish trader wants to eliminate as many 
"negatives" as possible.  Let's identify some easy ones.  
Consumer confidence is negative, so perhaps anything "retail" or 
sensitive to a consumer's luxury spending can be eliminated (as 
it relates to the scenario of a 3-day rally).  While I don't 
consider Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) or Home Depot (NYSE:HD) as retailers 
that sell "luxury" type items, consumers may be cutting back on 
their spending habits as they're starting to wonder about how 
secure their current job is.

Confidence in the stock:  Has this stock been around long enough 
or during "war time?"  Do they stand a chance of being around if 
the U.S. ends up in a world war?

Yes, it's "simple logic," but try listing any pros and cons of 
the stock as it relates to current market environment and the 
potential 3-day rally.

Think risk/reward

Think risk first.  At what point will I call it quits and how 
much upside does the stock have to a level of resistance?  I'm 
not thinking that a stock that fell $10 in the past three 
sessions will regain the entire $10 loss in a three-day rally.

Too often, traders/investors get in the mindset similar to 
playing a competitive sport.  "I only play to win."  In 
investing/trading, we play to win, but more importantly 
(especially in this current market environment) we're playing NOT 
TO LOSE.  

I often write about the bullish percent as "field position" and 
how a good football coach calls the appropriate play depending on 
field position and where the ball is.  RIGHT NOW, the bears have 
the ball and they've scored a touchdown.

The trader/investor looking to get the ball back (perhaps 
tomorrow) is going to start with a conservative play as they 
would have very poor field position.  Those that know anything 
about football are not going to be calling for the "triple 
reverse flee-flicker."  Nope, what the smart trader/investor will 
want to be looking for is "fullback up the middle" and if he 
breaks through for a 10-yard gain, then great.  Move the chains 
(move up our stop) and put some distance between us and the goal 
line.

Some Dow Stocks that look attractive

Let's go back to that "2 telecom stocks in the Dow Industrials, 
both showing buy signals on their charts."  Telecom..... why is 
that?  Is it because of all the phone calls being made across the 
country to touch base with our loved ones and make sure 
everything is OK?  Is it because we understand just how short 
life is and want some comfort?  Maybe it's because sales reps 
have had their expense budgets cut back and now pick up the phone 
and ask for the order, rather than jump on a plane and go shake 
hands.  Maybe its because the sector really has seen its bottom, 
has retrenched and is running lean.  We could go on and on.

SBC Communication (NYSE:SBC):  SBC Communications looks to have 
found a double bottom at the $38 level (April low and June low), 
but at $45, this stock might not fit our scenario for a 3-day 
rally.  Nonetheless, the stock looks strong and has been 
performing well relative to the Dow Industrials.

AT&T (NYSE:T):  Aha!  Now this may be a way for a trader to play 
the "telecom" strength, and shares of T just recently came very 
close to a 52-week low set back in December of last year near 
$16.18.  My thinking here as it relates to an oversold bounce and 
short-term trading rally is this.....

AT&T has been around for several war time era's.  As "bad" as 
things are right now, the stock DID NOT set a new 52-week low on 
Monday.  Even though the Dow Industrials have traded lower every 
day since the markets opened for trading, AT&T's low was seen on 
Monday at $16.50.  Tuesday's low was $17.46 and today's low was 
$17.75.  At $17.99, a trader might look long the stock tomorrow 
should the Dow look strong at the opening of trading.

Hand the ball off to the fullback (T), and if she can get out to 
the $20 yard-line, that's more than a 10% gain from the $17.99 
level.


================
Market Sentiment
================


Turnaround
by Jeffrey Canavan

A rash of earnings warnings coupled with economic and political 
uncertainty sent the Dow tumbling before a late-day rally took 
hold.  A 144-point drop may not look good, but considering the 
Dow was down over 420 points, it was a small victory for bulls.

Adobe's (ADBE) $4 drop contributed to a 2.86% decline in the 
software sector after the company gave less than inspiring 
guidance for the fourth quarter. Take Two Interactive Software 
(TTWO) also warned of lower fourth quarter revenues due to 
changes that would need to be made to the content of some of its 
more violent upcoming video games.  Electronic Arts (ERTS) also 
got caught up in the selling, losing 5.89%.  Symantec was the one 
bright spot, up 3.74%, on the company's detection and repair 
solutions for the Nimda virus.

Semiconductor Index Daily Chart





Software stocks had a rough day, but semiconductors were the 
worst performing tech sector of the day, closing down 3.76%.  
Rambus (RMBS) and Motorola (MOT) posted small gains, but $2 drops 
by KLA-Tencor (KLAC), Novellus (NVLS), and Applied Materials 
(AMAT) dragged the sector lower.  The sector was able to bounce 
off a fitted 61.8% retracement at 389, and move higher to close 
at 418.  Halfway between two retracement levels, the SOX looks 
like a 50/50 proposition right now.

Wireless Telecom Index Daily Chart





But not all was glum in techland, anything that didn't require a 
wire did well.  The Wireless Telecom Index (YLS) posted a 2.24% 
gain.  Handset makers, service providers, and chipmakers all did 
well, but will they continue to do so?  While wireless stocks 
haven't fallen with the rest of the market, they have just 
consolidated between 80 and 82 for the past five days.  If the 
rest of the market rebounds, these stocks might get left behind.

Oil and oil service stocks fell again today, losing 4.13% and 
7.74% respectively.  A possible decrease in demand due to a 
slowing economy continues to weigh on oil stocks.

Gold stocks finished up 0.36%.  They're not falling, but they're 
not posting consecutive gains either.

A snapback rally should see beaten down sectors do well, but 
until then some of the boring Dow stocks like Procter and Gamble, 
Alcoa, and Coke look like the safest long plays.

*************************Sector Watch****************************

            Support                Close              Resistance
DJIA       | 8,650  |      | 8759 |      |      |      |   9,110|
NASD       | 1,490  |      | 1528 |      |      |      |   1,670|
S&P 500    | 1,000  | 1016 |      |      |      |      |   1,100|
Rus 2000   |   385  |      |  403 |      |      |      |     455|
Semis      |   385  |      |  419 |      |      |      |     538|
Biotech    |   405  |      |      |  438 |      |      |     475|
Internet   |    90  |      |   96 |      |      |      |     105|
Networking |   217  |  225 |      |      |      |      |     260|
Software   |   100  |      |      |  124 |      |      |     159|
Banking    |   565  |      |      |      |  583 |      |     595|
Retail     |   695  |      |      |  725 |      |      |     765|
Drugs      |   365  |      |  374 |      |      |      |     410|

Support Alerts: Rus 2000, Semis, Software, Biotech, Biotechs
Resistance Alerts:
            ____________________________________________________
           |   Long    |   Short   |   Strength    | Relative   |
           |   Term    |   Term    |     of        | Strength   |
           |   Trend   |   Trend   |    Trend      | vs S&P 500 |
DJIA       |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |    Strong     |  Negative  |
NASD       |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |    Strong     |  Negative  |
S&P 500    |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |    Strong     |    --      |
Rus 2000   |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |    Strong     |  Negative  |
Semis      |  Bearish  |  Bearish  | Strengthening |  Negative  |
Biotech    |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |     Weak      |  Negative  |
Internet   |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |    Strong     |  Negative  |
Networking |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |    Strong     |  Negative  |
Software   |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |    Strong     |  Negative  |
Banking    |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |    Strong     |  Neutral   |
Retail     |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |    Strong     |  Negative  |
Drugs      |  Bearish  |  Bearish  |     Weak      |  Positive  |

            _____________________________________
           | Short-Term  |          | Point and |
           | Overbought/ | Momentum |   Figure  |
           | Oversold    |          |   Signal  |
DJIA       | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
NASD       | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
S&P 500    | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
Rus 2000   | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
Semis      | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
Biotech    | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
Internet   | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
Networking | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
Software   | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
Banking    | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
Retail     | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
Drugs      | Oversold    |  Falling |   Sell    |
             AP OB = Approaching Overbought
             AP OS = Approaching Oversold

*****************************************************************


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

SBC Communications Inc - SBC Close:$45.65 change:+1.35 Stop:$44.00

Original Comments When Selected on September 18th:

Company Description:
SBC is a telecommunications holding company selling a wide range 
services through subsidiaries.  After Verizon, SBC is the second 
largest local phone company with 61 million phone lines in 13 
states.  It sells through Pacific Bell in California, Southwestern 
Bell in Texas and Ameritech in Illinois.  Its newly formed venture 
with BellSouth called Cingular Wireless makes it the second largest 
wireless provider (behind Verizon again) with 21 million 
subscribers in 38 states.  SBC also provide DSL services with Covad 
and Prodigy and long distance services in Connecticut, Kansas, 
Texas and Oklahoma.  It also has an international presence with 
partial ownership of telecoms in 20 countries.

Fundamentals: 
Last year, the firm earned $2.26 per share on sales of $51.4 
billion.  This year analysts expect the company to earn $2.36 per 
share on sales of $56.7 billion and $2.55 on $64.4 billion in 
2002.With a current P/E of 20 and a forward 2001 one of 19, SBC 
shares are under valued when compared to the industry average P/E 
of 26.  SBC has indicated an annual per share dividend of $1.02 (or 
2.13-percent).

Why We Like It: 
In this nervous market, investors are beginning to rediscover the 
attractive valuation of the well-established telecoms.  They also 
feel the telecoms will benefit from decreased business travel.  The 
bullish momentum of SBC shares began with a $2.43 gain the day 
before Tuesday's disaster and has continued in the two days 
following the reopening of the markets.  Tuesday $1.35 gain 
produced a triple top breakout and fractured the $44.87 200-day 
moving average.  A point and figure analysis shows these shares are 
performing better than the S&P 500 and its peers in the North 
American Telecommunications Index ($XTC).  We have a bullish price 
target of $51 with resistance at $48.  Long-term investors can 
start this play with a stop at $41, which would represent a 
reversal of SBC's long-term bullish up trend.  Short-term traders 
should start with a $44 stop just below the before mentioned 200 
dma.

Updated Comments: 
The session low of $44.90 represented a slight dip to just above 
the $44.82 200-day moving average.  That this support level held is 
promising for longs and presents an attractive entry point.  With 
support so nearby, longs can enter this play with a tight $44.00 
stop, presenting limited risk.  If the long overdue traders rally 
makes its appearance the relative strength of this play should make 
it a strong performer.    


Picked on September 18th at $45.65
Gain since picked:          - 0.36
Earnings Date                10/22 (Not Confirmed)





==========
Watch List
==========

Itron, Inc - ITRI - close: 19.60 change: +1.67

WHAT TO WATCH:  Most of us have probably never heard of Itron Inc.
but its stock has been showing incredible strength over the last
three sessions making gains in each of them.  To steal a line from
MarketGuide's business description, "Itron Inc. is a provider to the 
utility industry of data acquisition and wireless communications 
solutions for collecting, communicating and analyzing electric, gas 
and water usage".  The stock has been in a long-term up trend since 
late December of last year and while it has seen some consolidation
and dips shareholders should be impressed with its $4 to $20 
appreciation.  In late July, shares of ITRI dipped to $14.50 intraday
before bouncing back to $20 in the next few days.  The stock has
seen very strong resistance at the $20 level and the few times the
bulls have been able to breakthrough it the bears took it back down
the next day.  As of this Monday the intraday low was $14.25 and the
stock has bounced back to $19.60.  The bulls are making another run
at resistance and if they are successful we want you to be aware of
it.  We would watch for two consecutive closes over the $20 level
or a better strategy would be to wait for two closes over $21 which
is also strong resistance.  You'll be missing the 5% move from 20 to
21 but it might forecast that the stock could be ready for another
stronger move up.  The past year has shown moves of 20% to 30% or 
more when it successfully breaks out above resistance.  On the 
positive side, the company also announced its efforts in a stock
buy back program this week.




---

Ball Corp. - BLL - close: 56.10 change: +1.09

WHAT TO WATCH:  Many of our readers who work in the technology 
field are probably familiar with the Ball Corp. through its 
Ball Aerospace division.  What a lot of investors don't know is
that the majority of their revenues come from food packaging.
More correctly, Ball is one of the world's largest suppliers of
metal and plastic packaging for food and beverages (example: 
aluminum cans).  Ball announced 2000 sales of $3.7 billion, of
which $3.3B came from packaging and only $400 million from its
aerospace division.  Their technology division focuses on civil
space and defense systems.  We are unsure how a slowing economy
might affect the packaging operations if at all and some may 
see it as a potential defensive play.  On the other hand, anything
defense related is going to get positive press as the U.S. 
pursues its new anti-terrorist agenda.  Looking at the chart, one
can see the slow steady long-term trend is up.  The stock appears
to be prone to 5 and 10% corrections and for weeks it battled with
overhead resistance at $50.  However, the bulls broke through 
resistance in mid-August and the share price quickly ran up to $58.
We've seen a pullback to $54 and the last two days have seen
positive closes.  Both traders and investors can keep this stock
on their watch list as potential entry points to go long exist
with a pullback to $54, $52.50 or a more bullish close over $58.
If the markets remain sour, a dip to $50 might be a tempting 
entry point but overall market conditions should be considered.




---

H R Block Inc. - HRB - close: 36.21 change: -0.79

WHAT TO WATCH:  HRB is not new to the watch list but we have not
listed it for a while.  The stock showed incredible strength over 
the last year which has probably helped more than one shareholder
sleep easier at night.  Last Friday the company announced a 15
million share buy back program but said the plan was not in 
response to Tuesday's attacks.  Whether that is believable or not,
management believes their stock is undervalued.  This is the second
buy back program for HRB in recent months as last March they 
announced a 12 million share plan that has almost been completed.  
We wanted to list it on the watch list as the stock has been 
hovering near its 50-dma.  HRB's share price has not closed below 
its 50-dma since November of 2000 and in the past purchasing shares 
when they traded near this moving average proved to be a great entry 
point.  Obviously, we're in a different market environment and 
profitable investors may be tempted to take some money off the table 
if the markets worsen but so far the stock has been resilient this 
week.  If you're a trader, this looks like a decent entry point to 
go long with a stop at or near $35 (since shares can still penetrate
the 50-dma, it has yet to close below it).  Overhead resistance
is at $39.  




---

Comverse Technology - CMVT - close: 24.25 change: +1.58

WHAT TO WATCH:  Is the bad news over?  We saw CMVT get hammered 
in July after warning that earnings would be significantly less
than expected.  The stock had been stuck in limbo under resistance
at $30 until they confirmed the bad news with their earnings
report in late August.  Earnings were indeed down and investors
were not happy with numbers 20% less than the year before.  The
next several sessions saw sustained selling in CMVT.  Now it 
appears that CMVT may have found a bottom at $20.  This is purely
speculation and what we are witnessing could just be an oversold
bounce and short covering but its possible shares might trade 
up to $27.50 or even $30 again.  There is resistance at 25.75 but
if the tech sector rallies it might be the case of a "rising tide
lifts all boats".  Keep your eyes on it if this sector interests
you or you like to do a little bottom-fishing.





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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Wednesday 09-19-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/3658_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Split Trader
  Split Announcements: GenesisIntermedia Postpones Stock Split 
  New Plays: none
  Play Updates: no active plays
  Closed Plays: none

Net Bulls
  New Plays: Qualcomm  - QCOM (Bullish)
  Bullish Play Updates: none
  Bearish Play Updates: Stops Updated
  Closed Plays: none

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: Suiza Foods - SZA (Bullish)
  Bullish Play Updates: none
  Bearish Play Updates: Stop Updated
  Closed Plays: none

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) 

=================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

===================
Split Announcements
===================

Wednesday, September 19, 2001 2:30 PM ET

GenesisIntermedia Postpones Stock Split

The Board of Directors of GenesisIntermedia (Nasdaq: GENI) 
announced that it will postpone indefinitely the previously 
announced 3-for-1 stock split. Originally announced on September 
5, 2001, the Board agreed that due to unfavorable market 
conditions they would wait until further analysis to execute the 
split. GENI shares were trading at $17.33 upon the declaration of 
the split and have traded as low as $13.05 since that time.

The company appears to be under SEC scrutiny for its questionable 
involvement with Adnan Khashoggi.  Khashoggi was a financial 
middleman in the Iran-Contra scandal and numerous other 
endeavors. Please read the original split announcement for 
further details.


Original Announcement:

09/05/01
Geni's Looking for a Little Magic 

GenesisIntermedia, Inc. (Nasdaq:GENI; Frankfurt:GIA) announced a 
3-for-1 stock split today in what some consider a desperate 
attempt to bolster the stock and to maintain the minimum 
requirements for its Nasdaq listing. Nevertheless, it would be 
difficult to argue that the Board's announcement is motivated by 
recent altercations with the SEC. 

On Tuesday the Board issued a letter to the shareholders that 
reiterated current corporate endeavors and a reminder that the 
company had been added to the Russell 2000 Index in July. Sounds 
great until you get to the part that states their concern about 
the massive short selling of common shares. Chairman and CEO Ramy 
El-Batrawi encouraged shareholders to take their shares off the 
street and into certificates, stating, " By doing this, a short 
seller would not be able to borrow your stock for short sales 
without your permission. When your stock is held in a margin 
account, brokers can loan it out." 

In a Bloomberg article that was also issued September 4, it was 
cited that Saudi financier Adnan Khashoggi (financial middleman 
in the Iran-Contra scandal) forfeited $7 million in inside trades 
to help GENI repay his loan. As the second-largest shareholder in 
the company, the SEC became aware of potential problems as 
Khashoggi's actions raised several issues under U.S. securities 
laws. According to a former SEC commissioner, using inside 
information would be the prime violation. 

According to Bloomberg, Khashoggi's holding company Ultimate 
Holding Ltd. has lent as much as $49 million to Genesis, which 
currently maintains a $9.3 million negative net worth. During the 
first six months of this year Ultimate surrendered almost $7 
million in short-swing profits to Genesis. These are profits 
accumulated solely from buying and selling GENI shares. The 
article stated, "In an interview with Bloomberg News in January, 
Ramy El- Batrawi, chief executive of Genesis, said he has known 
Khashoggi for about 15 years and worked with him "on deals" 
between 1988 and 1993. He said the two speak "almost every day." 

El-Batrawi expressed surprise that Khashoggi's name had been 
listed on Ultimate's filings with the U.S. Securities and 
Exchange Commission. `It's strange that it came out,' the Genesis 
CEO said. `He wanted a low profile'." 

Genesis issued its last stock split just six months earlier. That 
split was also a 3:1 announced at the $19 level. At the execution 
date, shares began trading at $7.45 and continued to escalate to 
the current price of $17.70. There are currently 23.3 million 
shares outstanding and a float of 9.8 million - 20.6 percent of 
which is short interest. The current stock split is payable 
September 24, 2001. 



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  --------------
  New Long Play
  --------------

Qualcomm  - QCOM Close:$45.00 Change:-1.37 Stop: $42.00

Company Description:
Qualcomm created the code-division multiple access (CDMA) standard 
for wireless networks.  CDMA-based networks account for 12-percent 
of the worlds' mobile subscribers.  Qualcomm collects royalties for 
CDMA use and makes CDMA-based products such as chipsets and 
software.   Although, the US is a Qualcomm stronghold, it is 
working hard to expand in Asia, in particular China, off of its 
dominance in South Korea.  This effort got a big boost when China 
Unicom, China's second largest wireless operator, awarded $1.46 
billion in contracts for equipment to build a cdma-based network.  
The Chinese adoption of cdma is seen as crucial for Qualcomm, 
because as it is also critical for the adoption of cdma throughout 
Asia.  Unfortunately, on the heels of the good news was an 
announcement that Verizon Wireless was switching from cdma to a 
rival technology based on wCDMA.  

Fundamentals:
Analysts project the company, which earned $1.05 in the fiscal year 
ended September 2000, will earn $1.04 in 2001 and $1.28 in 2002.  
This gives the company a forward P/E of 43.  

Why We Like It:  
This is a pure traders play.  On Wednesday, Qualcomm shares put in 
a double bottom when they bounced off of the $42.75 session low set 
last April 4th with a dip to $42.60 before closing at $45.00.  For 
short-term traders who think that today's late rally may finally 
spark a 2 or 3-day rally on Thursday, QCOM shares are a good choice 
to consider.  These are volatile shares and wireless stocks are 
showing some strength, so any form of rally should result in a 
quick move to the $53 to $57 range, yet the successful test of the 
April low means that quality support is nearby.  We are starting 
this play with a $42.00 stop, just below the April and Wednesday 
lows.  The volatility of this play means it is for aggressive 
nimble traders only.  Good or bad it won't be around for long.  

Picked on September 19th at $45.00
Earnings Date                 N/A (Not Confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------------

Stops Updated:
  MediImmune Inc (MEDI) from $36.00 to $35.50
  Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing (MMM) from $97.00 to $96.00
  Mercury Computer Systems (MRCY) from $38.50 to $37.75


==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  --------------
  New Long Plays
  --------------

Suiza Foods - SZA Close:$57.01 change:+0.61 Stop:$54.00

Company Description:
Suiza Foods Corporation, based in Dallas, is the nation's leading 
dairy processor and distributor, producing a full line of company-
branded and customer-branded products. National brands include 
International Delight®, Second Nature®, Naturally Yours®, Mocha 
Mix®, Sun Soy(TM), kidsmilk(TM) and fitmilk®. Regional brands 
include Adohr Farms®, Barbe's®, Broughton®, Brown's Dairy(TM), 
Country Delite®, Country Fresh®, Dairy Gold®, Dairymen's®, Flav-O-
Rich®, Garelick Farms®, Hygeia®, Lehigh Valley Farms®, London's®, 
Meadow Gold®, Model Dairy®, Oak Farms®, Poudre Valley®, Robinson®, 
Schenkel's All Star Dairy, Schepps®, Shenandoah's Pride®, Suiza 
Dairy®, Swiss Dairy(TM), Louis Trauth Dairy®, Tuscan® and Velda 
Farms®, as well as Celta® in Spain. Suiza also sells products under 
partner or licensed brands in certain regions, including Borden®, 
Foremost® and Pet®. Suiza Dairy Group manufactures its products in 
67 plants in 29 states.  Additionally, the company owns 
approximately 43% of Consolidated Container Company, one of the 
nation's largest manufacturers of rigid plastic containers.

In April 2001, Suiza Foods announced it had agreed to purchase 
rival Dean Foods (DF) for $1.5 billion and will assume $1 billion 
worth of debt. Pending antitrust approval, the company likely will 
take on the Dean Foods name.  Dean shareholders have already 
approved the deal, Suiza shareholders will vote on September 21.

Fundamentals: 
Last year, Suiza earned $3.86 per share on sales of $5.8 billion. 
Dean Foods (DF) earned 51-cents on $4.4 billion.  As single 
entities, analysts have 2001 earnings forecasts of $4.24 for SZA 
and 72-cents for DF.  Using these existing estimates, the combined 
entity should have 2001 earnings of $4.96 per share on sales in 
excess of $10 billion.  Compared against Suiza's current share 
price, the combined company would have a 2001 P/E of 11.49 against 
the industry average of 25.35 and SZA's current single entity 2001 
P/E of 13.4.  

Why We Like It: 
Suiza shares looks good for both long-term investors and short-term 
traders.  For long-termers, the shares have been on a well-
entrenched up-trend since December 2000. Multiplying Suiza's 
current 2001 P/E forecast against the expected earnings of the 
combined company gives a 6 to 12-month price target of $66.46. This 
is consistent with brokers' targets in the range of $64 to $68 and 
our point and figure derived bullish price objective of $63.00.  
Traders and investors will appreciate that the shares are currently 
at an attractive entry point.  In the last three trading sessions, 
the shares rebounded off of the bottom of their upward trading 
channel that has been in effect since mid-May.  A move to the upper 
end of this channel would put the shares at approximately $60 to 
$61.  To add it up, this gives us a short-term price target of $60 
and a longer-term one of $66.  Traders can establish a position 
with a $55 stop, which is just underneath the $55.66 50-day moving 
average and the recent $55.55 session low set when the market 
reopened on Monday.  Investors can go as low as $54 for a stop.

Picked on September 19th at $57.01
Earnings Date                11/07 (Not Confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  ------------------
  Short Play Updates
  ------------------

Stop updated:
  AmeriCredit Corp. (ACF) $38.96 to $35.50


==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

  ---------------------------------
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  ---------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
TLS       Telstra Corp Ltd Ads       13.20  +0.85
HNP       Huaneng Power Intl Inc     21.10  +1.27
SZA       Suiza Foods Corp           57.01  +0.61
HIW       Highwood Properties        24.60  +0.55

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
AWE       AT&T Wireless Group Inc   15.00  +1.02
TNOX      Tanox Inc                 16.35  +1.29
VSAT      Viasat Inc                18.59  +2.73
MOVI      Movie Gallery             19.57  +2.90

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
VZ        Verizon                   53.90  +2.20
VRSN      Verisign inc              42.90  +2.58
ADC       Aon Corp                  37.74  +1.05
NOC       Northrop Grumman Corp     97.00  +2.25
CSC       Computer Sciences Corp    35.65  +2.65

  -----------------------------------------
   Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
 -------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
XOM       Exxon Mobil Corp          38.41  -1.07
TOT       Total Fina Elf Sa         66.00  -3.40
RD        Royal Dutch Petrol        48.05  -2.63
LLY       Eli Lilly                 75.50  -2.46
HBC       Hsbc Holdings Plc         48.75  -1.43

  ------------------------------------------------------------
   Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
  -------------------------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
IMO       Imperial Oil              27.31  -0.72
SU        Suncor Energy             29.25  -1.32
SQA-B     Sequa Corp Class B        56.25  -1.00

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