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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 09/20/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Thursday 09-20-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap: Reversal yet to happen
Market Sentiment: Sellers Still Subsist
Play-of-the-Day: T. Rowe Price Group - TROW (Bearish)

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       9-20-2001           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8376.21 -382.92  8748.82  8375.72  1.9 bln    548/2637
NASDAQ   1470.93 - 56.87  1513.24  1467.10  2.0 bln    938/2906
S&P 100   501.02 - 17.83   518.85   500.95   Totals   1486/5543
S&P 500   984.54 - 31.56  1016.10   984.49
RUS 2000  387.65 - 15.55   403.20   386.68
DJ TRANS 2033.86 -132.00  2165.62  2026.95
VIX        49.04 +  5.80    49.04    45.76
VXN        82.49 +  5.56    82.49    76.73
TRIN        1.17 
Put/Call Ratio       .97
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Reversal yet to happen
by Jeff Bailey

We thought yesterday's late session rally was that of short 
covering as the bond markets and currency markets gave little 
hint that there was any type of event triggering the buying.  At 
certain points during today's session, there were some glints of 
hope that something bullish was taking place in equities.  

The long end of the bond market saw selling as the 30-year YIELD 
($TYX.X) and 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) both moved sharply higher.  
Biotechs as characterized by the Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 
traded up 2.5% at one point this morning, but throughout the 
session that index moved back and forth in positive and negative 
territory, giving little hint that there was true conviction or 
willingness to drive at least one group of stock higher.

By session's end, the Dow Industrials fell 4.37% to close at 
8,367.  It was a tough day to make money from the long side.  The 
chart below shows how the 30 Dow components faired today.  Again 
we note two telecom stock at the bottom of the chart as fairing 
somewhat better than the rest.  





In last night's market wrap, I felt the "best chance" for a 
bullish investor might be in Dow components AT&T (NYSE:T) and to 
a lesser extent SBC Communication (NYSE:SBC).  In a way I was 
right, but I was also wrong.  Shares of SBC outperformed T.

While there is some consolation in "forecasting" two of the three 
winners in the Dow Industrials, the picture for that to continue 
looks somewhat bleak.  The Dow Industrials tried to hold above 
the 8,481 level for most of the trading session, but sellers 
continued to show up and drive stocks lower.  

Dow Jones Industrial Average - last ten months





Last night we mentioned that we wanted to see something similar 
to what took place in the Dow Industrials chart back in late 
March, but we didn't get it today.  The Dow broke below our 
retracement level at 8,481 and investors need to be concerned 
about the possibility of 8,000.  I'm not calling for alarm or 
panic, but in times of uncertainty traders and investors need to 
be realistic and have some trading strategies in place should we 
continue to see a decline.

How could things get better, with so much gloom?

Tonight's speech from President Bush will need to be powerful.  
So far, I've been impressed with his calm demeanor and the 
confidence with which he has spoken.  The broader perception of 
those investors around the world is that the United States 
represents rational and thoughtful politics.  There's a sense of 
stability.  While some want to see more emotion and perhaps anger 
from the President, I for one don't think that anger will help 
calm the financial markets.  Suffice it to say, President Bush 
needs to bring his best to the table and give the markets some 
information on the administrations plans going forward.  

Uncertainty, panic and capitulation

One "event" that many Wall Street analysts continue to say hasn't 
happened yet is capitulation.  The current market environment is 
prime for capitulation.  Since Monday's open, many traders on the 
floor of the NYSE still don't feel that we've yet to see any type 
of "panic" and capitulation.  Instead, many of the broader 
markets continue to decline in a more orderly type of trading.  
For some it's been foot by foot and this is very painful.

I take no pleasure in pointing out potential downside in stocks 
or broader market indices, but eventually some of these comments 
may be used in the future to help depict observations of what was 
taking place.  Someday, should the Dow Industrials trade 20,000 
and the markets find turmoil, there will be those that look at 
the stock market and ask, "What were you worried about?"

Take preventative action if needed!

Think rational and take some preventive action if your current 
portfolio dictates that such action is needed.  I'm getting a few 
e-mails from subscribers that indicate they are close to margin 
calls and don't know what to do.  Even though we've explained how 
to hedge positions, some still haven't (even though they feel 
like they should have) and now they're getting nervous.  If 
you're a trader that owns several stocks that have been trading 
much in line with the S&P 500 (SPX.X), then you can perhaps buy a 
put option on the S&P 500 to help try and hedge some of your 
investments.

Think rational

Often times I reflect on past experiences to help bring some 
prudent information to traders.  The following is a personal 
tragedy that I have close knowledge of and it should NOT be 
repeated.

On October 19, 1987, the Dow Industrials fell 508 points, losing 
22.6% of its value in a single day.  That "crash" ended a five-
year bull market that had seen the Dow rise from 776 to 1982 high 
of 2,722.  

Wait a minute.... 2,722?  We're at 8,376 today!  Yes, the world 
is a bit different that it was in 1987, but why did a friend of 
mine take his life when the October 1987 "crash" occurred?

We never know how things will play out in the long run, but had 
my friend thought more "rational" about things, what kind of 
shape would he be in today?  He was a mutual fund investor that 
worked long hours and pumped the bulk of his income into stocks 
(I think he was making around $15,000/year at the time).  He was 
what many back then considered "an ordinary middle class 
citizen."

Nobody knows for sure where we go from here.  However, if we can 
at least plant the seed in our minds that "long-term everything 
is going to be OK" then we're on the right track.  Again, some 
traders/investors may need to take appropriate actions near-term 
to help smooth things out, but my past experience tells me that 
there are certain actions that don't need to be taken.

It's depressing to even mention the above and I take no pleasure 
in doing so.  All of our family members and friends have 
suffered a lot of grief in recent days and we need to be there 
for them.


================
Market Sentiment
================

Sellers Still Subsist
by Jeffrey Canavan 

Profit warnings and a deteriorating housing market augmented 
investors concerns about a weakening economy, and stocks posted a 
loss for the fourth straight day.

Alan Greenspan tried to ease investors minds by saying, "I am 
confident that we will recover and prosper as we have in the 
past," but also added that, "nobody has the capacity to fathom 
fully how the tragedy of September 11 will play out. But in the 
weeks ahead, as the shock wears off, we should be able to better 
gauge how the ongoing dynamics of these events are shaping the 
immediate economic outlook."

Until that fog clears, a - when in doubt get out - mindset 
continues to consume Wall Street.  That mindset has lead to $7.8 
billion in mutual fund redemptions on Monday and Tuesday, most 
likely forcing fund managers to sell assets.  The Bass family was 
also forced to sell 135 million shares of Disney today after 
receiving a margin call.  Throw in some selling by bottom fishers 
who got burned on Monday and Tuesday and insurance companies 
liquidating assets to cover claims, and it's hard to get a gauge 
on when the selling might subside, regardless of what the VIX and 
other contrarian indicator are telling us.  The market will 
reverse, but the question remains when. 

Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Weekly Charts





Perhaps we need to test October 1998 lows before the market 
reverses.  That would be 1,357 for the Nasdaq and 923 for the S&P 
500.  

With only treasury budget data being released tomorrow, earnings 
announcements will sway the markets, but President Bush's speech 
tonight could have the biggest impact on the markets.

As far as Joe Retail Investor's sentiment goes, I think the 
following e-mail being circulated around the web sums it up.

If you bought $1000 worth of Nortel stock one year ago, it would 
now be worth $49. If you bought $1000 worth of Budweiser (the 
beer, not the stock) one year ago, drank all the beer, and traded 
in the cans for the nickel deposit, you would have $79.

My advice to you is to start drinking heavily and recycle.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

VIX   49.04
VXN   82.04

-----------------------------------------------------------------
 
          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          1.27        950,940     1,205,780
Equity Only    1.21        761,762       919,256
OEX            1.47         39,474        58,343
QQQ            1.03         61,833        63,767

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          22      -4      Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100     2      -4      Bear Confirmed
DOW           20      -4      Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       22      -4      Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       18      -2      Bear Confirmed

Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 
30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------


 5-Day Arms Index  0.98
10-Day Arms Index  1.20
21-Day Arms Index  1.30
55-Day Arms Index  1.28

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       547           2641
NASDAQ     935           2902

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE       22            571
NASDAQ     12            449

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,939
NASDAQ   2,065
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Advisory Sentiment 

*New data not yet available

Bullish  Bearish  Correction  Net Bullish   Change 
  44.3%    30.9%     24.8%       13.4%       +0.1%

A bearish reading of 25% to 30%, combined with a bullish reading 
greater than 55% is typically considered bearish by contrairians.  
A net percentage greater than 30% is also viewed as bearish. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/10/01

This data is from 9/10/01, and does not reflect positions taken 
after last week's terrorist attacks.  

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

As of last Monday, Commercial traders got 3.4% more bearish.  This 
is still below the most bearish reading of the year, but marks 
three straight weeks of increasing bearishness.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
8/28/01      342,742   421,868   (79,126)   (10.35%)
9/04/01      350,626   430,613   (79,987)   (10.24%)
9/10/01      359,360   442,070   (82,710)   (10.32%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 41,144) - 5/1/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
8/28/01      141,046     58,001   83,045     41.72%
9/04/01      147,080     62,004   85,076     40.69%
9/10/01      156,500     69,090   87,410     38.75%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders dumped 207 short positions, but also dropped 
1,973 long positions, causing the net bearish position to 
increase by 1,766.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
8/28/01       29,255     36,551   ( 7,296)  (11.09%)
9/04/01       28,757     38,119   ( 9,362)  (14.00%)
9/10/01       26,784     37,912   (11,128)  (17.20%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
8/28/01       11,131     9,694    1,437       6.90%
9/04/01       12,341     9,806    2,535      11.45%
9/10/01       15,263    12,555    2,708       9.73% 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

The Dow continues to be the only index with a commercial net 
bullish position.  12,412 is the most bullish reading of the 
year, but that may change next week.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
8/28/01       22,141    14,959    7,182     19.4%
9/04/01       23,459    14,099    9,360     24.9%
9/10/01       25,445    13,033   12,412     32.3% 

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 12,412  - 9/10/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
8/28/01        5,240     9,835    (4,595)   (30.48%)
9/04/01        6,952    12,744    (5,792)   (29.41%)
9/10/01        7,460    12,735    (5,275)   (26.12%) 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01

COT Commercial Net Position Charts





----------------------------------------------------------------- 


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================

T. Rowe Price Group - TROW - close: $27.57 change: -3.09 stop: $30.50

We like this new Bearish selection so much we've made it our 
Play-of-The-Day.

Company Description:
T. Rowe Price manages the T. Rowe Price family of mutual funds for 
individual and institutional investors. Generally oriented toward 
value investing, the funds offer a product for every risk and 
taxation profile, including small-, mid-, and large-cap funds, high 
growth funds, and both taxable and nontaxable bond funds. Company 
subsidiaries also provide accounting and other asset management 
services, as well as shareholder and discount brokerage services

Fundamentals:
For six months ended 6/30/01, revenues decreased 12% to $542.6 
million. Net income decreased 30% to $100.5 million. Results 
reflect lower advisory fees due to the decline in asset and 
brokerage trading volume, and higher compensation, advertising 
costs and amortization expenses.  For the 2001 fiscal year analysts 
expect earnings to decline from the $2.08 per share earned in 2000 
to $1.60 and $1.90 in 2002.   The company has a forward 2001 P/E of 
17 as compared to the industry average of 14.33.

Why We Like It: 
Nothing fancy about this scenario, the flood of redemptions sinking 
the mutual fund industry prior to Tuesday's disaster has turned 
into a tsunami.  According to TrimTabs.com a net $7.8 billion was 
pull out of mutual funds on last Monday and Tuesday.  And money 
going out means lower earnings for mutual funds such as T Rowe 
Price. Merrill Lynch estimates investors put just $53 billion into 
mutual funds in the first 8 month of the year, compared with $259 
billion in all of 2000.  With no sign of a turnaround in the 
economy or markets it is likely the lessoned inflow and increasing 
outflow will continue making earnings projections tenuous. 

TROW shares have plummeted $8.90 (or 23-percent) per share in the 
last seven trading session.  Thursday saw them bust through 
critical support at the March $27.81 low setting a new 52-week low 
of $27.35.  With no floor underneath, nervous traders have no 
reason to buy and plenty to sell.  We will start this play with a 
$30.50 stop, which is just above Thursday's $30.26 session high.  

Picked on September 20th at $27.57.  
Earnings Date                 N/A (Confirmed)





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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 09-20-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/092001_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Split Trader
  Split Announcements: none
  New Plays: none
  Play Updates: no active plays at this time
  Closed Plays: none

Net Bulls
  New Plays: Genentech Inc - DNA (Bullish)
  Bullish Play Updates: QUALCOMM - QCOM, SBC Comm. Inc - SBC  
  Bearish Play Updates: MEDI, MMM, MRCY, PSFT
  Closed Plays: none

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: Right Mgmt Consultants - RMCI (Bullish)
             T. Rowe Price Group - TROW (Bearish)
  Bullish Play Updates: CPB, MO, SZA
  Bearish Play Updates: ACF, TCB
  Closed Plays: none

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) 

==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  --------------
  New Long Play
  --------------

Genentech Inc - DNA - close: $41.20 change: +0.70 stop: $37.50

Company Description:
Genentech is one of the most profitable biotech firms.  Its 
products include Rituxan (a treatment for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma), 
Activase (a blood-clot treatment for heart attack and stroke 
victims), Protropin and Nutropin (growth hormone-related conditions 
and Pulmozyme (cystic fibrosis). Herceptin, a breast cancer drug, 
was very popular before 15 deaths were linked to it; the company 
warned physicians about use with certain patients.   Nine Genentech 
drugs are sold in the US; international sales are made by drug 
giant Hoffmann-La Roche.  Many analysts consider the firm to have 
the richest pipeline of all the biotechs with over a dozen drugs in 
development, including treatments for heart failure, psoriasis, and 
various cancers.  Partners include Novartis (asthma and allergy 
treatments); Xoma (psoriasis and organ transplant rejection); and 
Millennium Pharmaceuticals (inflammatory bowel disease drugs). 

Fundamentals:
Last year, the company earned 60-cents per share on sales of $1.6 
billion.  This year, the analysts' consensus estimate is for the 
firm to earn 75-cents per share in 2001 on sales of $2.1 billion 
and 90-cents on $2.6 billion in 2002.  The company has a strong 
balance sheet with no long-term debt and cash flow of 87-cents per 
share (industry average 4-cents). 

Why We Like It: 
Prior to the WTC disaster, we were monitoring the growing relative 
strength of the biotech's against the overall market.  Afterwards, 
nervous investors sold them off in a run to the safety of more 
defensive positions.  As the market settles following Tuesday's 
tragedy, market participants are beginning to surf the biotech's 
for attractive risk/reward opportunities.

As with many of its peers, DNA shares are now near important 
support levels in the $38 to $39 range that withstood repeated 
tests in March, April, July and August.  However, with its superior 
fundamentals and strong pipeline, Genentech shares are some of the 
best performing in the industry.  This suggests that these support 
levels have a good chance of holding, and when the market turns, as 
one of the stronger players in an industry that was showing 
superior relative strength when compared to the overall market, DNA 
shares should outperform with a promising upside.  

On Thursday, the biotech index ($BTK) went counter to the dour 
market when it gained a small but significant 2.47 points, or 0.56-
percent.  Consistent with our scenario, Genentech did better with a 
70-cent gain, or 1.72-percent.  If this bullish momentum continues, 
we see DNA shares making a short-term run at resistance at $48.  If 
the shares can make it through this level, the next area of upside 
resistance is the $52 to $53 range.  Taking advantage of the before 
mentioned nearby support, we can limit risk by sliding a $37.50 
stop just underneath this area.  Less risk tolerant investors can 
probably do well with a tighter $39.00 stop 


Picked on September 20th at $41.20.  
Earnings Date                 N/A (Confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------------

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 45.54 change: +0.54 stop: 42.00

Score another one for relative strength.  Shares of QCOM ignored 
the broad market declines on Thursday and actually gained ground
closing over the $45 level.  Like most of the market the stock 
has been very oversold but there appeared to be a lack of sellers
today even though the Dow and the Nasdaq were very negative.  This
remains a "risky" play despite the stock's strength today and we
doubt that if the market sell-off continues for long that QCOM
will be able to maintain current prices.  As we mentioned yesterday,
QCOM is at support levels created in April of this year.  As long
as shares remain here we have hope that any market rebound might
allow for traders to catch any appreciation in the stock.  This
afternoon positive news came out about QCOM's demonstration last
week at the CTIA Wireless IT and Internet 2001 convention in San 
Diego.  Reports say that QCOM was able to bring streaming video to 
a laptop over a 3rd generation Bluetooth internet connection using 
QCOM's CDMA technology.  At long last our wait for streaming video
may be over...you were waiting for that weren't you?

Picked on September 19th @ $45.00
Gain since picked:         + 0.54
Earnings Date:               N/A  (not confirmed)




---

SBC Comm. Inc - SBC - close: 45.65 change: +1.35 stop: 44.00

As we expected, traders got a chance to buy the dip on SBC at its
200-dma on Thursday but we were pleasantly surprised that the 
stock rose higher throughout the day.  Shares remain under current
resistance at $46 but it is hard to deny the stock's strength
after what happened to the broader markets on Thursday.  We plan
to keep our stop tight at $44.00 and more conservative traders
still waiting to initiate any plays could consider a close over
$46 as a potential trigger to evaluate an entry point.  

Picked on September 18th @ $45.65
Gain since picked:         + 0.00
Earnings Date:              10/22 (not confirmed)





  -----------------------
  NB Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------------

MedImmune - MEDI - close: 33.01 change: -0.42 stop: 34.50 *new*

The biotech index may have managed a small gain today but the
sell-off for MEDI continues.  The stock price began to narrow 
today with both a higher low than Wednesday but a lower high
as well.  It appears that $34 could act as overhead resistance
if the market's don't offer a strong rebound to fuel any 
investor buying for MEDI.  Because of this we're going to lower
our stop to $34.50.  This should help lock in an estimated $6
move or just less than a 15% drop.  Needless to say the stock,
like the market is extremely oversold and we could be stopped
out at any time when the markets finally produce a relief rally
(even if it might be a temporary reprieve).  The $30 mark is 
likely to be a psychological support level for MEDI and we could 
see some short covering if things don't reverse earlier.

Picked on August 28th @ $40.46
Gain since picked:      + 7.45
Earnings Date:           10/24 (not confirmed)




---

3M - MMM - close: 90.32 change: -2.13 stop: 93.50 *new*

If you have been following our updates for MMM then you know that
we advised traders to follow the Dow's activity as a forecast for
MMM's direction.  Over the last four days the Dow has lost over
12%.  In like fashion, MMM has lost 11%.  We mentioned that the
bulls and the bears were probably going to gravitate to the $90
level if the selling continued and shares found support there
today.  Volume has been strong for the stock but then market 
volumes have been record breaking all week.  Currently the 
newsletter is up over 16 points on this play or a move of 15%.  
It goes without saying that the stock is extremely oversold and 
way overdue for a bounce.  If one was to estimate where the stock 
might bounce to we could see shares easily climbing to $93 to $95 
and given a multi-day rally a possible bounce to $97.50.  To 
protect the play from such an event we are going to lower our stop 
to $93.50.  This is 50 cents above the late day rally attempt on 
Wednesday which is also an area of a small consolidation late 
afternoon on Tuesday.  This should help secure a move of $13.25 in 
the stock or a drop of 12%.  By the looks of it (we've not read 
tonight's commentary by Bailey yet) with the Dow closing at its 
lows for the day, the sell-off should continue tomorrow morning.  
This may be especially true if the overseas markets repeat the 
Dow's performance today.  The bulls can hope for a late afternoon 
rally on this triple-witching Friday but with uncertainty in the 
global politics this trader doubts any such attempt will materialize.

Picked on August 29th @ $106.75
Gain since picked:      + 16.43
Earnings Date:              N/A  




---

Mercury Cmptr - MRCY - close: 33.94 close: -0.92 stop: 36.00 *new*

We have to admit that we're surprised shares of MRCY are holding up
so well.  Don't get us wrong.  In our original write we discussed
how MRCY should benefit from the new increase in defense spending
but the 45% jump on Monday just seemed too much too fast.  Shares
have traded down the last three days and we did see an intraday low
of 32.65 on Thursday so shorts fast acting short traders should be
profitable.  We continue to urge strong caution and only those 
with the ability to move fast and the willingness to risk such a
play should consider this strategy.  As a matter of fact, we are
lowering our stop to $36 which only gives us $2 of room for the
stock to maneuver.  We'd rather get stopped out for a wash than 
have it turn against us in a surprise move up.

Picked on September 18th @ $35.87
Gain since picked:        +  1.93
Earnings Date:                N/A  




---

PeopleSoft - PSFT - close: 19.99 change: -0.75 stop: 21.75 *new* 

The descent appears to be slowing for shares of PSFT and the 
GSO software index.  The question is this the beginning of
a new base for the sector/stock or is it merely a pause for the
bears to catch their breath before the trend picks up speed
again?  This is the first time PSFT has closed below the $20
mark since March.  As you know, the March low was $17.50 which
is over 10% from current levels.  We expect that a trading rally
will materialize eventually and when it does PSFT should retrace
some of these losses.  Since this is a short play we don't want
to give any of these gains back.  The newsletter currently 
shows a move of almost 14.5 points or a drop of almost 42% since
we picked PSFT on August 31st.  We're going to lower our stop
to $21.75 to try and protect these results.  We would be hard
pressed to recommend new shorts at this level but there is no
rule that says PSFT can't make new 52 week lows.  The risk/reward
to short from this position doesn't inspire us.  Use your best 
judgement and play with stops.  

Picked on August 31st @ $ 34.48
Gain since picked:      + 14.49
Earnings Date:              N/A  





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  --------------
  New Long Plays
  --------------

Right Mgmt Consultants - RMCI - close: $24.70 change: +2.05 stop: $22.00

Company Description:
For Philadelphia-based Right Management a weak economy with hoards 
of layoffs is a growth opportunity.  The company specializes in 
career transition and management consulting services through over 
200 company-owned and franchised offices worldwide.  Right  
consults on termination interviews, severance and termination 
benefits and provides career planning services for employees. It 
also runs group seminars and on-site career transition centers. Its 
management consulting practice (about 20-percent of revenue) is 
focused on leadership development and organizational performance. 
The company suffered in the 1990's due to the booming economy and 
low unemployment, which encouraged the company to develop its 
management consulting practice. However, the recent economic 
downturn has brightened prospects as many employers are reducing 
headcount.

Fundamentals:
What a difference a changed economy makes.  The company that earned 
89-cents a share in 2000, is expected by analysts to earn $1.66 in 
2001 and $2.42 in 2002.  These forecasts are up sharply from 
consensus estimates of $1.19 for 2001 and $1.38 for 2002 made just 
90-days ago. RMCI shares are low priced on a fundamental basis when 
compared to industry averages.  The firm has forward P/E's of 14.8 
for 2001 and 10.2 for 2002; as compared to an industry average P/E 
of 28.82.  It has a bargain basement PEG (Price/Earnings Growth) of 
0.97 as opposed to the industry average of 1.81.  

Why We Like It: 
There are a number of reasons for long and short-term investors to 
like this stock.  The company is cheap on a valuation basis and in 
the right sector during an economy that is showing few signs of a 
pulse.  Its shares are in a well-established up trend extending 
back to December of 2000.  Our point and figure analysis produced a 
bullish 6-month price target of $34.50; however, as the economy 
continues to degrade it is likely we will see this target within a 
much shorter time frame.  

The stock blasted through critical resistance at $24.50 on Friday.  
This represented a move out of the top-end of congestion the shares 
have been in for the past month.  With a solid base underneath and 
only slight resistance in the $26 to $27 range, the shares seem 
poised to put in a short-term test of the $29.49 52-week high set 
in mid-July.  Depending on their personal tolerance for pain, long-
term investors can start with a stop at either $18.50, which would 
indicate a violation of big time support that has held since May, 
or our shorter-term trader stop of $22.00.

Picked on September 20th at $24.70.  
Earnings Date                 N/A (Confirmed)





  ---------------
  New Short Plays
  ---------------

T. Rowe Price Group - TROW - close: $27.57 change: -3.09 stop: $30.50

We like this new Bearish selection so much we've made it our 
Play-of-The-Day.

Company Description:
T. Rowe Price manages the T. Rowe Price family of mutual funds for 
individual and institutional investors. Generally oriented toward 
value investing, the funds offer a product for every risk and 
taxation profile, including small-, mid-, and large-cap funds, high 
growth funds, and both taxable and nontaxable bond funds. Company 
subsidiaries also provide accounting and other asset management 
services, as well as shareholder and discount brokerage services

Fundamentals:
For six months ended 6/30/01, revenues decreased 12% to $542.6 
million. Net income decreased 30% to $100.5 million. Results 
reflect lower advisory fees due to the decline in asset and 
brokerage trading volume, and higher compensation, advertising 
costs and amortization expenses.  For the 2001 fiscal year analysts 
expect earnings to decline from the $2.08 per share earned in 2000 
to $1.60 and $1.90 in 2002.   The company has a forward 2001 P/E of 
17 as compared to the industry average of 14.33.

Why We Like It: 
Nothing fancy about this scenario, the flood of redemptions sinking 
the mutual fund industry prior to Tuesday's disaster has turned 
into a tsunami.  According to TrimTabs.com a net $7.8 billion was 
pull out of mutual funds on last Monday and Tuesday.  And money 
going out means lower earnings for mutual funds such as T Rowe 
Price. Merrill Lynch estimates investors put just $53 billion into 
mutual funds in the first 8 month of the year, compared with $259 
billion in all of 2000.  With no sign of a turnaround in the 
economy or markets it is likely the lessoned inflow and increasing 
outflow will continue making earnings projections tenuous. 

TROW shares have plummeted $8.90 (or 23-percent) per share in the 
last seven trading session.  Thursday saw them bust through 
critical support at the March $27.81 low setting a new 52-week low 
of $27.35.  With no floor underneath, nervous traders have no 
reason to buy and plenty to sell.  We will start this play with a 
$30.50 stop, which is just above Thursday's $30.26 session high.  

Picked on September 20th at $27.57.  
Earnings Date                 N/A (Confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Long Play Updates
  -----------------

Campbell Soup - CPB - close: 28.26 change: -0.61 stop: 27.00

Campbell Soup dropped 61 cents today.  The can is a little dented, 
but still in good shape.  In a week that has seen stock get 
decimated, Campbell has lost 9 cents since we picked.  A loss is 
never good, but the month long up trend remains in place and 
defensive stocks should continue to attract interest in uncertain 
times.  If soup sales drop off, nothing is safe.  The company did 
sell $300 million in seven-year notes. 

Picked on September 17th at $28.35
Gain since picked:           -0.09
Earnings Date                  N/A




---

Phillip Morris - MO - close: 47.43 change: -0.57 stop: 45.00

Phillip Morris traded like a yo-yo for most of the day, but closed 
lower for the third straight session. Volume continues to dry up 
on the pullback, and MO has plenty of technical support nearby to 
prevent a steep decline. Current market conditions should lead to 
an increase in smoking.

Picked on August 30th at $47.94
Gain since picked:        -0.51
Earnings Date            10/17/01 (unconfirmed)




---

Suiza Foods - SZA - close: 59.25 change: +2.24 stop: 54.00

Suiza just sat there for the first forty minutes of trading, but 
then out of nowhere exploded.   We thought this stock might 
perform relatively well under these market conditions, but today's 
3.92% gain was a pleasant surprise.  A close above resistance at 
$59.40 would have been nice, but we're not complaining.

Picked on September 19th at $57.01
Gain since picked:           +2.24
Earnings Date                  N/A




  ------------------
  Short Play Updates
  ------------------

AmeriCredit - ACF - close: 28.82 change: -2.34 Stop: 31.00 NEW

AmeriCredit tried to stabilize after Monday's steep decline, but 
has plunged over $5 the past two days on brisk volume.  There is no 
doubt that the stock is oversold and support 82 cents lower at $28, 
so we are going to lower our stop to $31 in case of a quick rally.  
Should the perceived economic slowdown start hurting automobile 
sales, AmeriCredit, which derives its revenue from auto financing, 
could be in further trouble.

Picked on September 7th at $40.00
Gain since picked:         +11.18
Earnings Date                 N/A




---

TCF Financial - TCB - close: 41.40 change: -0.37 stop: 43.00

The Fed continues to make it attractive for companies to borrow 
money, but bank stocks continue falter.  TCF Financial lost another
 37 cents on Thursday, but is trying to consolidate.  If the 
stock closes below $40.50 the bottom could fall out.  

Picked on August 24th at $47.60
Gain since picked:        +6.20
Earnings Date              N/A





==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

  ---------------------------------
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  ---------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
PGN       Progress Energy           43.32  +0.82
SZA       Suiza Foods               59.25  +2.24
RMCI      Right Mgmt Consultants    24.70  +2.05

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
IMNX      Immunex Corp              18.15  +1.78

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
BLS       Bellsouth Corp            42.35  +1.10
FE        Firstenergy               34.45  +1.20
NOC       Northrop Grumman Corp    101.91  +4.91
CMVT      Comverse Tech Inc         25.99  +1.59
NEM       Newmont Mining            23.90  +1.10

  -----------------------------------------
   Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
 -------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
AZN       Astrazeneca Plc           43.82  -1.68
UN        Unilever NV               57.10  -1.24
TXN       Texas Instruments Inc     21.73  -2.17
C         Citigroup                 36.36  -2.09
TOT       Total Fina Elf Sa         62.70  -3.30

  ------------------------------------------------------------
   Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
  -------------------------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
GNI       Great Northern Iron Ore   69.00  -4.50
FSM       Foodarama Supermarkets    37.01  -1.99

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