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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 09/21/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-21-2001
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap: Some signs of capitulation
Market Sentiment: John Templeton 
Play-of-the-Day: Right Mgmt Consultants - RMCI (Bullish)
Watch List: DIA, ORCL, VIA.B, SANM, ITRI, BLL, CMVT 

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U.S. Market Numbers
------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
------------------------------------------------------------------
       9-21-2001           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     8235.81 -140.40  8438.41  8062.34  2.6 bln    802/2440
NASDAQ   1423.19 - 47.74  1454.04  1387.06  2.5 bln   1213/2794
S&P 100   491.70 -  9.32   503.02   480.07   Totals   2015/5234
S&P 500   965.80 - 18.74   984.54   944.75
RUS 2000  378.89 -  8.76   387.65   373.62
DJ TRANS 2054.84 + 20.98  2071.73  1942.01
VIX        48.27 -  0.77    57.31    47.28
VXN        77.73 -  4.76    91.79    77.73
TRIN        0.69
Put/Call Ratio      1.09
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===========
Market Wrap
===========

Some signs of capitulation
by Jeff Bailey

Earlier this week, many market analysts were saying that they 
felt the broader market indices had further downside, as there 
was a lack of capitulation.  Some floor traders felt that many 
investors were not selling stocks as a gesture of patriotic 
spirit and were going to stand firm.  As stock prices declined 
and recent events set in, stock prices continued to fall.

"Who's doing all the selling?" is the question from many 
investors as they watched their stocks fall in value.  The 
answer?  Investors/traders that had to in order to either keep 
their job, meet redemptions from their mutual fund holders, or 
investors that had to prevent further damage to their life 
savings and retirement.  The list of sellers could be long and 
all could have different reasons for selling.

I would be hard pressed to say that any American is acting 
unpatriotic if they had to make a decision regarding food on the 
table, roof over their head when deciding whether to hold onto a 
stock that was declining in value.

What does all this have to do with capitulation?  On Monday, it 
may have been easier to hold 1,000 shares long of International 
Business Machines (IBM) at the opening of trading (94).  The 
first 10-minutes of trading that day saw just 915,000 shares 
trade hand.  As Monday passed, then Tuesday, Wednesday and 
Thursday, many holders of IBM (a Dow Industrials component) 
watched the Dow Industrials lose nearly 1,000 points!  That's 
painful and puts pressure on investor psychology.

Friday morning we started seeing some signs that capitulation is 
perhaps starting to set in.  In the first 10-minutes of trading 
Friday, IBM traded 2.7 million shares.  That 4 decline from 94 on 
Monday morning to the 90 level on Friday morning was a point 
where some had to call it quits.

Intl. Business Machines - 10-minute interval chart





The above chart of International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) is 
displayed on a 10-minute interval (each bar represents 10-minutes 
of trading).  We're doing this to show that traders/investors 
were rather calm earlier in the week at the opening of trading.  
Today however, we saw over 2.7 million shares trade hands in the 
first 10-minutes.  On Monday, we only saw 915,000 shares trade in 
the first 10-minutes.  Why would investors be willing to sell 
more stock at lower prices?  Perhaps they had too, were scared or 
just plain wanted out!  All three are signs of capitulation 
starting to occur.

It's not just IBM either.  You can go down the list of Dow 
components and find a similar pattern.  Caterpillar (CAT) is a 
great example.  

Caterpillar Chart - 10-minute interval





On Monday, Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) opened at 47 (down just $1.02 
from the September 10 close of $48.02) and trades 95,000 shares.  
10-minutes later the stock's trading $48.30 (higher than before 
WTC and Pentagon events).  No capitulation there!  On Friday, 
after the stock has declined nearly 14% and opens at $41, sellers 
show up and dump 658 thousand shares.  Of course, the stock 
trades higher from that point on and finishes at $44.

Again, it makes no sense that an investor would willingly sell 
shares of CAT at $41 today, when they could have sold/hedged 
their position at $47 on Monday morning.  The only thing that 
makes sense is that the pain has become too great, fear is 
starting to set in and the position wasn't hedged!  All three are 
good indicators that we're starting to see some capitulation.  
Another reason of course is that an institution was "forced" to 
sell some stock in CAT to meet mutual fund redemptions.

Are we at a bottom?  It's tough to say for sure.  You get the 
feeling that we'll have to undercut Friday's lows at some point, 
just to make sure all the weak holders are cleared out.  This is 
often times the process that occurs to help the market put in a 
bottom.  It's very similar to testing someone's resolve.  

During a market climate like we're in right now, there's a belief 
held by many that stock passes from weak hands to stronger hands.  
Once the strongest hands get hold of a stock and are unwilling or 
do not need to sell, then the bottom is put into place.

Right now, due to the downward trend of the market and multi-year 
lows are being set, we have to start with some very short-term 
observations and begin building from there.

Homework!

Whether you consider yourself a trader or investor, try doing 
this.  Look at different charts like we're doing above.  I like 
looking at Dow charts to try and build some observations as it 
relates to the broader market perception of things.  To be listed 
in the Dow Industrials, the company has most likely proven over 
time that it has some long-term viability.  These stocks are 
widely held by institutions and these stocks can give great 
insight as to what is going on.

As you go through the Dow stocks, make note of where they closed 
for trading before the most recent tragic events (Sept. 10).  
Then make note of where they opened for trading on Monday 
morning, and where they are trading now.  What you begin doing is 
getting some intimate knowledge and building observations of 
RELATIVE strength!  Once you've done that, start comparing things 
day-by-day.  Where's the stock trading today relative to 
Wednesday?  How does that compare to the Dow Industrials?

Once you've gone through the 30-stocks, try and answer, "Why 
would this stock be acting this way."  If you find a stock where 
the only answer is "because the Dow Industrials are down" then 
you're onto something!  List those other thoughts that you make 
observation on and then try and test those observations against 
some other stocks in the same type of industry (need not be Dow 
Components).  Most often, you'll find a lot of commonality in 
your explanations.  Remember though, what you really want to be 
looking for is DIVERGENCE!  That's where the best investment 
opportunities are found.

If you really get into this stuff (like I do) then start looking 
at some sectors.  

There are basically three sectors right now that catch my eye as 
far as short-term divergence.  The Oil Service Index (OSX.X) has 
not broken below Wednesday's low, while the Dow Industrials, S&P 
500 and NASDAQ Composite have.  This is DIVERGENCE and worth a 
look.

Oil Service Index (OSX.X) - last ten months





I started out working with a "fitted" retracement, but what I 
found was almost identical to "standard" retracement of anchoring 
from a relative low to relative high.  The above retracement 
bracket from $65.12 to $142.24 gives hint that the Oil Service 
Index and basket of stocks making up the index are at a level of 
support.  It's hard to imagine that stock could actually trade 
levels, but look at some of the major inflection points and where 
some meaningful reversals took place.  In the current market 
environment, I'm not looking for a move to $94.50 (61.8% 
retracement), but a move to the $79 level or close to 80.9% 
retracement is not out of the question.  

An investor that is looking at some stocks in this group will 
want to have some type of hedge strategy in place on a break 
below this weeks low of $62.63.  

On Monday, we're highlighting shares of Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) 
as a bullish candidate for traders on PremierInvestor.net.  Under 
current market conditions we want to tread lightly and not load 
the boat, but start exposing some cash to the group.

A shorter-term trader that likes to trade some size will want to 
set a tighter stop than the recent lows of $42.18 (correlating 
with the OSX.X).  A longer-term investor might be willing to give 
SLB some room to the $42 level, but be open to either hedging 
his/her position with a protective put should the stock trade $42 
or write a covered call to raise some cash.

Take a look at the Biotech Index (BTK.X) and Natural Gas Index 
(XNG.X) too.  Hopefully you'll see some of the same type of 
short-term divergence there that you can begin to see in the Oil 
Service Index as it relates to some of the broader market averages 
and other sectors.

Final note!

It may have been a tough week for some traders and many 
investors.  Difficult times are at hand or so it would appear.  
Hopefully everyone has gotten through this week in good shape.  
If you didn't hedge some positions on Monday and wish you had, 
then PLEASE start a logbook and write down some of your 
observations and feeling about this week's events.  What should you have 
done and what shouldn't you have done?  What were you 
feeling at the end of each day?  Did it look like the "end of the 
world" was at hand?  What stocks/sectors did well?  What 
stocks/sectors got hit the hardest.  Try making some notes as to 
why certain stocks did what they did.

While we hopefully kept you abreast of the did well and didn't do 
so well, it will also be interesting to go back and check some of 
the articles we wrote in the trader's corner section of the site.  
I quickly reviewed the "Spotlight on the oil sector" and the 
chart history we did dating back to the Persian Gulf War.  We 
used past history to try and help guide us as it related to 
shares of Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XON).  In that analysis, it didn't 
look like XON would be a very good bullish play based on history.  
I heard more than one analyst on CNBC say that oil stocks would 
be a good place for investors to look for value.  Shares of Exxon 
Mobil (XON) fell from their opening of trading of $41.24 to 
finish today's session at $35.83.  Ouch if you bought at the open 
on Monday.  We'll continue to follow things here and look for 
DIVERGENCE from past history.  So far, things have gone for XOM 
like they did back in August of 1990.

How did Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU) do?  It was the "domestic" oil 
related stock.  It opened for trading on Monday at $30 and it too 
traded as low as $27.30 yesterday, but did manage to hold its 50-
day moving average and bounce up to close at $28.86.  Not 
fantastic, but the stock look technically stronger than shares of 
Exxon Mobil (XOM).  Maybe there is something in play as it 
relates to domestic or international risk after all?

If for no other reason than something to hand down to a new 
generation (son/daughter or grandson/granddaughter) your 
thoughts, emotions and observations will perhaps help you or 
someone who reads your trading journal in the future.  I wish my 
grandparents had written such a journal.  It would make for 
excellent reading!

Jeff 


================
Market Sentiment
================

John Templeton
by Jeffrey Canavan

A 14% drop in the Dow, a bullish percent reading of zero for the 
Nasdaq-100, a plethora of layoffs and constant prattle about a 
global recession is enough to make any investor want to join the 
$66 billion that has found its way into money market funds over 
the past two weeks.   Admittedly the constant barrage of bad news 
was even starting to wear on my psyche.   

So I was thumbing through my mail last night when I came upon a 
belated birthday present from my brother.  As is customary 
between us, any birthday or Christmas present is somehow related 
to trading.  This particular gift was an audiotape series - 
Secrets of Great Investors - Bargain Hunters, Contrarians, 
Cycles, and Waves.

So I popped in the tape on my way to work this morning, and here 
was the very first story.  It was 1939 and war had broken out in 
Europe.  U.S. Investors were paralyzed with fear.  A young John 
Templeton borrowed some money from his father, called up his 
broker friend and said that he wanted to buy $100 worth of every 
stock that was trading under $1.  He ended up buying stock in 104 
companies, 34 that were bankrupt.  After four years his 
investment had climbed to $40,000.

Timely story, but can we expect the same results now?  Over the 
years contrarians have developed tools to help identify extremes 
in market sentiment, and two of those, the VIX and Put/Call 
ratios, have been screaming that the market is oversold.  Yet we 
continue to head lower, so what's a trader to do?  Keep the 
defense on the field.  Sellers remain in control, and any bounce 
continues to elude us.

Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Monthly Charts





Technically the October 1998 lows continue to hold for the Nasdaq 
and S&P 500, and those will be the levels to monitor next week.  
Other than that there are not a lot of support levels to rely on, 
apart from a bunch of oversold indicators.  

Tuesday should be an interesting day with pre and post-attack 
consumer confidence numbers, existing home sales, and API energy 
stocks being released.  Thursday sees the release of initial 
jobless claims, durable orders, help wanted index, and new home 
sales data.  Nervous investors don't need much of a reason to 
keep selling.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

   Market Volatility
      Close   High
VIX   48.27   57.31
VXN   77.73   91.79

-----------------------------------------------------------------
 
          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Data not available, but it's safe to assume all put/call ratios 
are overly bearish.

Total          1.23
Equity Only    
OEX            
QQQ            

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

The bullish percent for the Nasdaq-100 has dropped to zero.  That 
means no Nasdaq-100 stocks are currently trading on a buy signal.

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          18      -4      Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100     0      -2      Bear Confirmed
DOW           18      -2      Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       16      -6      Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       16      -2      Bear Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------


 5-Day Arms Index  0.98
10-Day Arms Index  1.16
21-Day Arms Index  1.21
55-Day Arms Index  1.26

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE       799           2433
NASDAQ    1198           2693

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE       18            766
NASDAQ     12            735

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     2,310
NASDAQ   2,584
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Advisory Sentiment 

*New data not yet available

Bullish  Bearish  Correction  Net Bullish   Change 
  44.3%    30.9%     24.8%       13.4%       +0.1%

A bearish reading of 25% to 30%, combined with a bullish reading 
greater than 55% is typically considered bearish by contrairians.  
A net percentage greater than 30% is also viewed as bearish. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 09/18/01

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

This week's data only reflects trading on Monday and Tuesday, but 
in those two days commercial traders added 47,027 long positions 
and only 29,753 short positions.  That drops their net bearish 
stance by 17,274 contracts.  Small traders on the other hand 
loaded up with 31,441 short contracts.  Right now it looks like 
small traders made the right move, but we shall see next week.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
9/04/01      350,626   430,613   (79,987)   (10.24%)
9/10/01      359,360   442,070   (82,710)   (10.32%)
9/18/01      406,387   471,823   (65,436)   ( 7.45%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 41,144) - 5/1/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
9/04/01      147,080     62,004   85,076     40.69%
9/10/01      156,500     69,090   87,410     38.75%
9/18/01      172,988    100,531   72,457     26.49%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01
 
NASDAQ-100

Small traders have gotten more bearish, and are approaching their 
most bearish levels of the year.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
9/04/01       28,757     38,119   ( 9,362)  (14.00%)
9/10/01       26,784     37,912   (11,128)  (17.20%)
9/18/01       35,497     45,731   (10,234)  (12.60%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
9/04/01       12,341     9,806    2,535      11.45%
9/10/01       15,263    12,555    2,708       9.73% 
9/18/01       22,876    21,702    1,174       2.63%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Institutions continue to increase their net long position in Dow futures.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
9/04/01       23,459    14,099    9,360     24.9%
9/10/01       25,445    13,033   12,412     32.3% 
9/18/01       28,425    15,077   13,348     30.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 13,348  - 9/18/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
9/04/01        6,952    12,744    (5,792)   (29.41%)
9/10/01        7,460    12,735    (5,275)   (26.12%) 
9/18/01        7,335    15,044    (7,709)   (34.45%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01

COT Commercial Net Position Charts





----------------------------------------------------------------- 


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

Right Mgmt Consultants - RMCI - close: $25.22 change: +0.52 stop: $22.00

Original Comments When Selected on September 20th:

Company Description:
For Philadelphia-based Right Management a weak economy with hoards 
of layoffs is a growth opportunity.  The company specializes in 
career transition and management consulting services through over 
200 company-owned and franchised offices worldwide.  Right  
consults on termination interviews, severance and termination 
benefits and provides career planning services for employees. It 
also runs group seminars and on-site career transition centers. Its 
management consulting practice (about 20-percent of revenue) is 
focused on leadership development and organizational performance. 
The company suffered in the 1990's due to the booming economy and 
low unemployment, which encouraged the company to develop its 
management consulting practice. However, the recent economic 
downturn has brightened prospects as many employers are reducing 
headcount.

Fundamentals:
What a difference a changed economy makes.  The company that earned 
89-cents a share in 2000, is expected by analysts to earn $1.66 in 
2001 and $2.42 in 2002.  These forecasts are up sharply from 
consensus estimates of $1.19 for 2001 and $1.38 for 2002 made just 
90-days ago. RMCI shares are low priced on a fundamental basis when 
compared to industry averages.  The firm has forward P/E's of 14.8 
for 2001 and 10.2 for 2002; as compared to an industry average P/E 
of 28.82.  It has a bargain basement PEG (Price/Earnings Growth) of 
0.97 as opposed to the industry average of 1.81.  

Why We Like It: 
There are a number of reasons for long and short-term investors to 
like this stock.  The company is cheap on a valuation basis and in 
the right sector during an economy that is showing few signs of a 
pulse.  Its shares are in a well-established up trend extending 
back to December of 2000.  Our point and figure analysis produced a 
bullish 6-month price target of $34.50; however, as the economy 
continues to degrade it is likely we will see this target within a 
much shorter time frame.  

The stock blasted through critical resistance at $24.50 on Friday.  
This represented a move out of the top-end of congestion the shares 
have been in for the past month.  With a solid base underneath and 
only slight resistance in the $26 to $27 range, the shares seem 
poised to put in a short-term test of the $29.49 52-week high set 
in mid-July.  Depending on their personal tolerance for pain, long-
term investors can start with a stop at either $18.50, which would 
indicate a violation of big time support that has held since May, 
or our shorter-term trader stop of $22.00.

Updated Comments:
On a day when decliners beat up on advancers 2437 to 806 at the 
NYSE, we'll take a 75-cent gain in RMCI.  Volume was nice and 
heavy, which Right Management will need as it continues to close a 
big gap that formed back in July.  A company that specializes in 
career transition should see plenty of business in the coming 
months.

Picked on September 20th at $24.70
Gain since picked:           +0.52
Earnings Date                  N/A




==========
Watch List
==========

Diamonds, Based on the Dow Jones - DIA - close: 82.80 change: -0.85

WHAT TO WATCH:  Many investors are not familiar with Diamonds.
As you can see above the symbol is DIA and you can buy and sell 
them like a stock.  This is a very easy way for individuals to 
trade the market or in this case the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Basically, for every 100 points the DJIA moves, the DIA moves one
point.  If you're expecting a big rally in the Dow next week then
one way to trade it would be to buy shares of the DIA.  If the
DJIA rallies 300 points then the DIA should move 3 points from
82.80 to 85.80.  For active traders this probably doesn't offer 
enough excitement for them.  A 300-point move in the DJIA could
be traded several ways not the least of which would be options
on the DJX or even options on the OEX which would probably offer
substantial returns.  Speaking of the OEX, if trading options on
the S&P 100 index interests you, consider checking out our
sister website, www.IndexSkybox.com, their sole focus is trading
index options and educating individuals how to do it profitably.
All right, back to the stock traders here on Premier, we would be
watching the DIA for another dip to 80 or a break above 83 or 85.
You realize a break above 85 would require a 300-point move in 
the DJIA but those seem to be more common place these days.  
Depending on your entry point we would consider stops at today's
low of 79.50 or just under 81.00.  Obviously, you should confirm
market direction before considering a long play.  




---

Oracle Corp. - ORCL - close: 10.76 change: -0.55

WHAT TO WATCH:  The GSO software index may have just finished its
fifth down day in a row but ORCL has been trading sideways for
several days now.  The ship that Larry Ellison commands has been
stuck in a trading range between 10.25 and 11.50.  Depending on
your style of trading you could try and enter near the bottom of
this range or wait for the close above resistance of 11.50 or
12.00.  We might see resistance at $13 but our goal would be to
get out at $14 capturing a 10% to 15% move.  We would suggest a
stop at 10.00 or 11.50 based on your entry.




---

Viacom Inc Class B - VIA.B - close: 30.75 change: +1.20

WHAT TO WATCH:  Maybe it was the positive close today or maybe 
it was the drop from $45 to less than $30 in the last few weeks
but VIA.B caught our attention on Friday.  The media giant took
it on the chin when the market's opened up again on Monday and
the selling had been non-stop until Friday.  Viacom owns the
CBS television company and the 24 hour coverage that many T.V.
channels offered last week have put a huge crimp in advertising
revenues for most T.V. networks.  We think it's possible that 
VIA.B might be at a bottom here and even if it isn't any 
significant bounce in the markets could give VIA.B enough fuel
to at least rebound to $35.  We would look for a close over
$31 as a trigger to consider a long position with a stop at or
just under $29.  Resistance is at $35 or if the bulls are lucky,
the stock might make it to $37 and close the gap overhead but 
that could take awhile.




---

Sanmina Corp. - SANM - close: 13.30 change: +0.39

WHAT TO WATCH:  It's no secret that the manufacturing sector is
in the pits right now.  SANM is a far cry from where it started
the year over $50 and there are renewed concerns for demand after
last week's attack on New York.  Despite these concerns we look
at SANM as a potential short-term trade.  While most of the 
market was steadily falling all week, SANM spent most of the week
hovering in a 50 cent trading range.  Friday saw the stock gap
lower like many others but shares quickly traded higher and 
managed a 3% gain on the day.  The company also saw positive news
with an approval by the EU commission for SANM to acquire SCI
Systems (NYSE: SCI).  The new company would be one of the globe's
largest electronics manufacturers.  Depending on your level of
aggressiveness, we would look for a close over $13.50 or over
$14.00 as a trigger to go long shares of SANM.  The stock should
see strong overhead resistance at $17.50 but that would be a nice
return of 15% to 20% or more.  Consider a stop 50 to 75 cents 
below your entry.





===================
CONTINUING TO WATCH
===================

Itron, Inc - ITRI - close: 20.04 change: +0.30

UPDATE:  This stock is still climbing and has not succumbed to
the selling pressure in the broader markets.  We still believe
that traders should wait for the stock to close (higher) over
the $20 level or better yet to wait for the close over $21.
It's worth watching. 

-- Highlighted on Sept. 19th, 2001 --
-- original write up below         --

WHAT TO WATCH:  Most of us have probably never heard of Itron Inc.
but its stock has been showing incredible strength over the last
three sessions making gains in each of them.  To steal a line from
MarketGuide's business description, "Itron Inc. is a provider to the 
utility industry of data acquisition and wireless communications 
solutions for collecting, communicating and analyzing electric, gas 
and water usage".  The stock has been in a long-term up trend since 
late December of last year and while it has seen some consolidation
and dips shareholders should be impressed with its $4 to $20 
appreciation.  In late July, shares of ITRI dipped to $14.50 intraday
before bouncing back to $20 in the next few days.  The stock has
seen very strong resistance at the $20 level and the few times the
bulls have been able to breakthrough it the bears took it back down
the next day.  As of this Monday the intraday low was $14.25 and the
stock has bounced back to $19.60.  The bulls are making another run
at resistance and if they are successful we want you to be aware of
it.  We would watch for two consecutive closes over the $20 level
or a better strategy would be to wait for two closes over $21 which
is also strong resistance.  You'll be missing the 5% move from 20 to
21 but it might forecast that the stock could be ready for another
stronger move up.  The past year has shown moves of 20% to 30% or 
more when it successfully breaks out above resistance.  On the 
positive side, the company also announced its efforts in a stock
buy back program this week.




---

Ball Corp. - BLL - close: 54.05 change: -0.71

UPDATE: It's possible that BLL might not get as much attention
if the broader market finally produces a large rally.  Traders
and investors will be drawn to more beaten down stocks in 
hopes of capturing greater percentage gains but BLL is still 
worth keeping an eye on.  The dip on Friday down to the $52.40 
level was a great chance for traders to buy at support created
in the last week of August.  With a stop just under $52 there
wouldn't be much to worry about.

-- Highlighted on Sept. 19th, 2001 --
-- original write up below         --

WHAT TO WATCH:  Many of our readers who work in the technology 
field are probably familiar with the Ball Corp. through its 
Ball Aerospace division.  What a lot of investors don't know is
that the majority of their revenues come from food packaging.
More correctly, Ball is one of the world's largest suppliers of
metal and plastic packaging for food and beverages (example: 
aluminum cans).  Ball announced 2000 sales of $3.7 billion, of
which $3.3B came from packaging and only $400 million from its
aerospace division.  Their technology division focuses on civil
space and defense systems.  We are unsure how a slowing economy
might affect the packaging operations if at all and some may 
see it as a potential defensive play.  On the other hand, anything
defense related is going to get positive press as the U.S. 
pursues its new anti-terrorist agenda.  Looking at the chart, one
can see the slow steady long-term trend is up.  The stock appears
to be prone to 5 and 10% corrections and for weeks it battled with
overhead resistance at $50.  However, the bulls broke through 
resistance in mid-August and the share price quickly ran up to $58.
We've seen a pullback to $54 and the last two days have seen
positive closes.  Both traders and investors can keep this stock
on their watch list as potential entry points to go long exist
with a pullback to $54, $52.50 or a more bullish close over $58.
If the markets remain sour, a dip to $50 might be a tempting 
entry point but overall market conditions should be considered.




---

Comverse Technology - CMVT - close: 25.08 change: -0.91

UPDATE:  Trading between new support at $25 and resistance at
$26 we still feel that CMVT might offer nimble traders a chance
to capture any move up to $28 or $30.  Unfortunately, the 50-dma
at 27.31 could also act as overhead resistance.  Keep your eyes
on the NASDAQ for a relief rally that might signal the move up
for CMVT.  This would be a short-term trade only.  Look for that
close over $26 (not 25.99 like Thursday).  We suggest a very
tight stop.

-- Highlighted on Sept. 19th, 2001 --
-- original write up below         --

WHAT TO WATCH:  Is the bad news over?  We saw CMVT get hammered 
in July after warning that earnings would be significantly less
than expected.  The stock had been stuck in limbo under resistance
at $30 until they confirmed the bad news with their earnings
report in late August.  Earnings were indeed down and investors
were not happy with numbers 20% less than the year before.  The
next several sessions saw sustained selling in CMVT.  Now it 
appears that CMVT may have found a bottom at $20.  This is purely
speculation and what we are witnessing could just be an oversold
bounce and short covering but its possible shares might trade 
up to $27.50 or even $30 again.  There is resistance at 25.75 but
if the tech sector rallies it might be the case of a "rising tide
lifts all boats".  Keep your eyes on it if this sector interests
you or you like to do a little bottom-fishing.





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of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-21-2001
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/092101_2.asp
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In section two:

Split Trader
  New Plays: none
  Play Updates: No active plays at this time, 
  Closed Plays: none

Net Bulls
  New Plays: none
  Long Term Play: General Electric - GE
  Bullish Play Updates: QUALCOMM - QCOM, Genentech - DNA
  Bearish Play Updates: MEDI, MMM, PSFT
  Closed Bullish Plays: SBC Comm. Inc - SBC
  Closed Bearish Plays: Mercury Cmptr - MRCY

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Plays: Schlumberger Limited- SLB (Bullish)
             Argosy Gaming Co - AGY (Bearish)
  Bullish Play Updates: MO, RMCI, SZA
  Bearish Play Updates:.ACF, TCB, TROW
  Closed Bullish Plays: Campbell Soup - CPB
  Closed Bearish Play: none


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

=================
NB Long Term Play
=================

General Electric - GE - September 21st close: $31.30 change: +0.93

Company Description:
This conglomerate to fit into any category that is large and 
successful. Its recently retired CEO Jack Welch was widely considered 
to be the best corporate executive in the U.S.  His hand picked 
successor Jeff Immelt, the former President and CEO of GE Medical 
Systems is well regarded and investors should see no letup in GE's 
success.  He will continue Welch's mandate that the firm be #1 or #2 
in every industry it is in.  Currently the firm makes aircraft 
engines, appliances, industrial products, lighting and electrical 
distribution systems, plastics, nuclear reactors, gas turbines, 
medical imaging systems, locomotives and more.  The company owns 
the NBC and CNBC television networks.  Its financing arm GE 
Capital Services supplies over one-half of sales.  GE is probably
the largest growth company in the world, it has averaged over 100 
acquisitions in each of the last three years.  Its growth 
strategy emphasizes expanding outside the U.S. and doing more 
business over the Internet. 

Fundamentals:
Last year the company earned $1.27 per share on revenue of $129 
billion.  Analysts forecast the firm will earn $1.41 a share in 
2001 on revenue of $135 billion and $1.61 in 2002.

Why We Like It: 
GE is one and will remain one of the most successful firms in 
history.  When circumstances cause the shares to dip, savvy long-
term investors see this as an opportunity that does not come around 
often.  The attack on the WTC put GE shares into a decline it has 
not seen in years.  One of its subsidiaries, GE's Employers 
Reinsurance Corp. is among the companies providing insurance and 
reinsurance coverage of the World Trade Center and the four 
aircraft used in the terrorist attacks.  Last week it said it would 
have $600 million in pretax insurance losses.

This news dropped the shares from the $39.35 close on September 
10th to $30.37 on Thursday.  Friday saw the shares rebound as 
bargain-hunting investors took advantage of the weakness to scoop 
up some shares.  Monday may see more weakness in the shares as the 
company said Friday it expected 2001 per-share earnings growth of 
11 percent to $1.41 per share.  Before the attacks, the company had 
forecast earnings of $1.45.  However as its new CEO Immelt said, 
"The GE model works."  He added, "I was chairman for two days, and 
then I had jets with my engines hit a building I insured which was 
covered by a network I owned, and we still grew (2001) earnings by 
11 percent. I think we're in pretty good shape."  

Ultimately, investors will agree with Immelt's words and GE shares 
will rise.  Patient investors should look at any further weakness 
in the shares as a K-Mart blue light special on one of the best 
companies in the world.  For investors who yearn for growth but 
want to sleep at night during times of economic uncertainty, 
General Electric is an easy choice.

Earnings Date                N/A (Not Confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------------

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 44.89 change: -0.65 stop: 42.00

Hmm.. what can we say but see yesterday's comment about relative
strength.  QCOM has really impressed us here.  The Dow drops 
140 points, the NASDAQ slips almost 3.25% and QCOM dips to its
April lows and bounces.  The bulls are really trying to hang on
at this level.  If the market can stage any sort of rebound we
might get a decent rally in QCOM.  We still feel that this is
a play for veteran traders and those willing to take on more
risk than our normal strategies in the newsletter but even from
here near $45, an individual should be able to limit their 
potential loss to only $3 with a stop at $42.  If you'd like to
see more confirmation of a new bullish move up, consider waiting
for shares to close over $46.  The only concern you might have
with that strategy is that the stock might get away from you 
on a short-term move up.  We might see some overhead resistance
at $48 but I would expect more at $50.  Note, for the technical
traders out there, it looks like there is the beginnings of a
bullish divergence in the MACD's histogram vs. the overall 
trend of its fast and slow moving averages.  I wouldn't base a
trade on this observation but it might confirm that the downward 
momentum is slowing in QCOM.

Picked on September 19th @ $45.00
Gain since picked:         - 0.11
Earnings Date:               N/A  (not confirmed)




---

Genentech - DNA - close: 39.88 change: -1.32 stop: 37.50

With many stocks gapping lower this morning with the broader
markets doing the same, the Biotech sector felt the BTK.X drop 
another 22 points or 5% to 417.  It is hoped that this level
between 410 to 420 on the BTK might offer some support as the
sector found support here in April.  Of course the intraday low
in March was 382 but alas no one said the biotechs were a 
conservative play.  Shares of DNA actually held up okay after
the initial gap lower to $38.75.  The stock is currently trading
near support and with a stop at $37.50 our risk/reward scenario 
looks good.  Be aware that another gap down below the stop is
always a potential risk.  While our trading target is $48 more
conservative traders may want to wait for the stock to close
above $42.  We might see some resistance at $46 as well but a
move from 40 to 46 is still 15%.  Confirm stock and market 
direction on Monday before initiating any new plays.

Picked on September 20th @ $41.20
Gain since picked:         - 1.32
Earnings Date:               N/A  (not confirmed)





  -----------------------
  NB Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------------

MedImmune - MEDI - close: 32.01 change: -1.00 stop: 34.50 

With the overseas markets falling it wasn't hard to expect a 
lower open on Friday morning for U.S. stocks.  It was a little
surprising to see the NASDAQ composite along with large numbers
of equities gapping lower on the open.  Shares of MEDI opened
at 29.51 on Friday and volume for the day closed at over 5 mln
shares trading.  The stock managed a strong comeback but rolled
over at the $33.50 level.  The overhead resistance line remains
intact but we become increasingly concerned that a relief rally
could be around the corner.  Since the bears had probably been
targeting the $30 level the strong rebound was probably fueled
by short covering.  We would encourage traders to start taking
profits if you have not done so already.  As of Friday's close
the newsletter is showing a 20% gain since the we picked the
play on August 28th.  Could the stock keep falling?  Yes, but
the sector and the stock are very oversold and could easily
bounce 10% to 15% in a very short time.  Bears are keeping their
eyes on the BTK.X which closed near its April lows.  The risk/
reward outlook to short from here does not look as profitable
a week or two weeks ago.  We would not initiate any new plays
unless the stock closed below the $30 mark and then only with 
a very tight stop.  Those traders that want to lock in as much
of their gains as possible might want to consider moving their
stop to 33.50 instead of the newsletter's 34.50.

Picked on August 28th @ $40.46
Gain since picked:      + 8.45
Earnings Date:           10/24 (not confirmed)




---

3M - MMM - close: 86.98 change: -3.34 stop: 90.50 *new*

After the fifth worst week in the Dow's history, investors should
not be surprised to see one of its components fall almost point
for point on a percentage basis.  MMM has dropped almost 15% in
the last five days with the week culminating into Friday's
session with over 6.1 million shares trading.  We've said it before
so bear with us but MMM is going to take its direction from the
Dow.  As soon as we get a rally in the index we should see shorts
start to cover and momentum traders trying to scalp a few points
all trying to buy MMM.  However, until that happens we'll keep
lowering our stop to protect the gains in this successful short
play.  Currently, our bearish play is up 19.77 points or 18.5%.
We've chosen to lower our stop to $90.50 giving MMM 3.50 in room
to maneuver.  

Picked on August 29th @ $106.75
Gain since picked:      + 19.77
Earnings Date:              N/A  




---

PeopleSoft - PSFT - close: 20.23 change: +0.25 stop: 21.26 *new* 

PSFT was one of 18 stocks out of the NASDAQ 100 that closed in the
green today but the 25 cent gain probably feels like a hollow 
victory for shareholders.  The stock opened lower like most of
the market but short covering helped bring it back to the $20 
level before midday.  The software sector continues to slip and
the GSO.X dropped another 3% in tandem with the NASDAQ.  We've
said it before... the stock is very oversold and everyone is
expecting a bounce soon.  This is not a good position to be
initiating new short plays.  This bearish play has been sitting
at or near a 40% gain for a few days now.  If you have not 
begun to take profits yet we would encourage you to do so.
Instead of just closing the play we're going to lower our stop
another 49 cents and give the stock the opportunity to fall 
further despite our doubts.  The risk is that PSFT could gap
higher on Monday or Tuesday and cut into any gains.

Picked on August 31st @ $ 34.48
Gain since picked:      + 14.23
Earnings Date:              N/A  





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  -----------------------
  NB Closed Bullish Play
  -----------------------

SBC Comm. Inc - SBC - close: 44.25 change: -1.65 stop: 44.00

We are really disappointed that shares of SBC dipped below our
stop of $44.00 in late trading on Friday.  One might think that
the negative news about California regulators fining Pacific Bell, 
a subsidiary of SBC, $25.5 million for "deceptive marketing 
practices" on top of a market that turned in its 8th down day in a 
row was too much for traders and some of them didn't want to be 
long going into the weekend.  SBC said the company would appeal 
the regulators decision and we doubt that the $25 million will be 
felt by a corporation with sales over $40 billion.  What could 
have been the weakness in SBC was news of their offer to buy the
remaining shares of Prodigy, the ISP, whom SBC already owned 42%.
SBC offered a 54% premium over Prodigy's closing price of $3.54 or 
$5.45 a share.  We know it looks like the news came out after the 
markets were closed but no one knows if someone didn't already have 
an inside scoop.  Volume has been tremendous the last few days but
volume for the entire markets has been record breaking.  What 
should concern bullish traders is the close below $45 and the 
close below the stock's 200-dma (44.71).  If you still like the 
stock, keep an eye on it.  Traders might be able to see the stock
bounce at $44 or maybe a dip to $43.50.

Picked on September 18th @ $45.65
Gain since picked:         - 1.65
Earnings Date:              10/22 (not confirmed)





  -----------------------
  NB Closed Bearish Play
  -----------------------

Mercury Cmptr - MRCY - close: 33.94 close: -0.92 stop: 36.00 

MRCY may have opened lower with the rest of the markets but it
didn't stay down for long.  How could it?  After the rousing 
speech by the President last night investors jumped into anything
that might benefit from the increase in defense spending.  By
the end of the day MRCY had gained 6.74%.  Do we still think it's
too much too soon?  Yes, as the company probably hasn't received 
all these new orders from the gov't yet.  Fortunately, we raised
our stop on Thursday so we close the play with a 13 cent loss.

Picked on September 18th @ $35.87
Gain since picked:        -  0.13
Earnings Date:                N/A  





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  --------------
  New Bullish Plays
  --------------

Schlumberger Limited- SLB - close: $46.96 change: +1.96 stop: $43.00

Company Description:
Schlumberger is the #2 oil and gas field services firm in the world 
(#1 is Hallibuton - HAL).  Services the company provides includes 
seismic surveys, drilling, wireline logging, well construction and 
completion, and project management.  Schlumberger also makes 
metering and payment systems for utilities and produces smart 
cards.  In addition it produces semiconductor testing equipment.  
Its Omnes unit creates and operates information technology and 
communications networks.

Fundamentals:
Last year, the company earned $1.27 per share on revenue of $9.6 
billion.  Analysts project the company will earn $1.59 on $14.3 
billion in 2001 and $2.31 on $16.2 billion in 2002.  SLB shares have 
forward 2001 P/E of 29.5.  The industry average P/E is 11.84. 

Why We Like It: 
The markets are oversold to the extreme making shorts vulnerable to 
an equally extreme snapback rally.  In preparation, it is necessary 
to begin to balance out overly short portfolios with some long 
positions.  Yet it takes a certain amount of courage to take a long 
position in the face of a rampaging Kodi the Bear.  Therefore it 
makes sense to look for a sector that has already been mauled to 
reduce the downside risk, yet is showing early signs of life.  Then 
search within that for a gorilla that is showing greater relative 
strength than its peers.  Such a sector is oil service and the 
animal is Schlumberger.

The oil service sector index ($OSX) gained an impressive 4.5-
percent on a crummy Friday for the overall market.  Our master 
market strategist Jeff Bailey in today's (9/21) Market Wrap gave 
some other reasons why we like this sector and ways to play this 
bullish selection.  So make certain to read his piece.  

Searching for companies that are outperforming its peers brought us 
to Schlumberger.  

Don't be fooled that the higher P/E of SLB shares as compared to 
the industry average suggests these shares are overvalued, nor that 
SLB shares have been sliding with every other oil service company.

As one of the best names in the industry, on a relative basis SLB 
shares have suffered less than the rest of the sector, making it a 
good candidate to outperform its peers when the sector turns.  In 
addition, since the oil service sector has been hammered since its 
August 2000 highs it probably doesn’t have a lot of downside left 
making it a relatively safer place to go long.

In the short-term, we have a bullish price target of $52.  In the 
event the bears keep attacking, we will protect ourselves with a 
$43.00 stop, which is just below Friday's $43.69 session low.  
Longer-term investors, who like this sector, may want to consider a 
stop at $42.  This level would be our preferred stop, as reaching 
it would represent a new 52-week low, however it is a bit too far 
from our $46.96 entry point for a short-term trade. 

Picked on September 21st at $46.96  
Earnings Date                10/24 (Not Confirmed)





  --------------
  New Bearish Plays
  --------------

Argosy Gaming Co - AGY - close: $23.00 change: -0.70 stop: $24.50

Company Description:
Argosy runs six riverboat casinos on the Ohio, Mississippi, and 
Missouri rivers, serving the St. Louis, Cincinnati (about 50-
percent of company sales) and Kansas City areas, and also in Baton 
Rouge, Louisiana, Joliet, Illinois and Sioux City, Iowa.  Its 
riverboats contain more than 6,400 slots and about 265 table games.

Fundamentals:
Analysts forecast the company will earn $2.14 per share in 2001 and 
$2.78 in 2002.  Last year, the firm earned $1.74 per share on 
revenue of $694.8 million.  The company has approximately $589.9 
million in long-term debt.  On September 20th, the company 
reaffirmed its guidance of third-quarter earnings of 60-63-cents 
per share, saying the recent airline troubles should not effect 
them as they serve primarily local markets.

Why We Like It: 
When the market is oversold to this extreme, shorting strategies 
carry additional risk.  However, since the market continues to 
plummet they carry the potential for significant gain.  To reduce 
our risk, we search for a bearish play that is near significant 
resistance in a weak sector.  Argosy fits this bill to a tee. A 
suffering economy and the WTC tragedy have sent gaming industry 
shares into a tailspin.  Argosy shares have mirrored the rest of 
the industry, dropping $9.80 (or 23-percent) since September 4th.  
Of that loss $5.50 (or 19-percent) has occurred since the markets 
reopened on September 17th.  Clearly the shares have bearish 
indications.  Last Wednesday, the shares broke through their $23.80 
200-day moving average.  And although the shares managed to limit 
their losses to an additional 87-cents, this sets up an attractive 
bearish opportunity.  We can enter this position with a $25.50 
stop, which is just above the 200-day moving average thereby 
limiting our risk in the event of a market turnaround.  To the 
downside, there is decent support at $22.00.  If these shares can 
manage to break through this level, there is some slight support in 
the $19.50 to $20.74 area, but we think a move to the $16 to $17 
range is likely.  This gives us a $1.50 risk for a potential reward 
of $7 to $8.  Another legitimate approach would be to wait for the 
break below $22, but then the risk/reward ratio s would have to be 
adjusted accordingly.

   
Picked on September 21st at $23.00  
Earnings Date                10/23 (Not Confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------

Phillip Morris - MO - close: 46.68 change: -0.75 stop: 45.00

The performance of Phillip Morris today was enough to make me start 
smoking.  MO dipped down to $45.33 before bouncing off its low to close 
at $46.68 on heavy volume.  2 million shares traded hands in the first 
hour, as the stock dropped $1.  MO stabilized around noon, and managed 
to close back above both moving averages and support at $46.40.  
Options expiration and nervous traders wanting to get out before the 
weekend most likely affected Phillip Morris today. 

Picked on August 30th at $47.94
Gain since picked:        -1.26
Earnings Date            10/17/01 (unconfirmed)




---

Right Management - RMCI - close: 25.22 change: +0.75 stop: 22.00

On a day when decliners beat up on advancers 2437 to 806 at the NYSE, 
we'll take a 75-cent gain in RMCI.  Volume was nice and heavy, which 
Right Management will need as it continues to close a big gap that 
formed back in July.  A company that specializes in career transition 
should see plenty of business in the coming months.

Picked on September 20th at $24.70
Gain since picked:           +0.52
Earnings Date                  N/A




---

Suiza Foods - SZA - close: 60.00 change: +0.75 stop: 54.00

Suiza Shareholders approved the buyout of Dean Foods today.  The merger 
will create a company with $10 billion in annual revenue, but still 
awaits federal antitrust approval.

Suzia was subject to some profit taking/selling out of the gate Friday 
morning, but staged a nice rally to close up $0.75.  That takes out 
resistance at $59.45 on decent volume.

Picked on September 19th at $57.01
Gain since picked:           +2.99
Earnings Date                  N/A





  -----------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------

AmeriCredit - ACF - close: 28.36 change: -0.46 Stop: 31.00

ACF quickly dipped below support at $28, but managed to rally 
back to $28.36 by the end of the day.  We thought this level 
would be tough to crack, and it has proved so.  We'll keep our 
stop at $31.  This locks in some nice gains, but still gives ACF 
some wiggle room until it decides if it wants to break support or 
not.

Picked on September 7th at $40.00
Gain since picked:         +11.64
Earnings Date                 N/A




---

TCF Financial - TCB - close: 40.78 change: -0.62 stop: 42.00 NEW

TCF Financial was trading as low as $39.45 by noon, but managed 
to close above support at $40.50.  We would have felt more 
comfortable if this stock would have closed below that level.  
Now it looks a little suspicious of wanting to rally.  We are 
lowering our stop one more notch to $42 in case that happens.

Picked on August 24th at $47.60
Gain since picked:        +6.82
Earnings Date              N/A




---

T. Rowe Group - TROW - close: 25.70 change: -1.87 stop: 30.50

Funds still continue to attract money - money market funds.  With 
T. Rowe's reliance on stock funds, investors continue to shy away 
from the company.  Today a larger than average number of shares 
changed hands, and TROW closed down $1.87.  That puts the stock 
below support at $28 and primed to fall further.

Picked on September 20th at $27.57
Gain since picked:           +1.87
Earnings Date               10/19/01 (unconfirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  -----------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Campbell Soup - CPB - close: 26.80 change: -1.46 stop: 27.00

Stocks suffered a steep sell off in the first hour of trading, 
and we were stopped out of CPB in the first ten minutes of 
trading.  The stock closed below its 50-day moving average and on 
its low.  The overall market sentiment has cancelled out 
Campbell's otherwise reliable seasonal tendencies.

Picked on September 17th at $28.35
Gain since picked:           -1.35
Earnings Date                  N/A





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To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 09-21-2001
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section three:

Split Announcement: Redwood Empire Bancorp - REBC
Expected/Likely Split Announcements For The Coming Week 
New Split Candidates: AdvancePCS - ADVP
Market Watch for Week of September 23rd
   - Major Earnings
   - Board of Directors Meetings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20

=================================================================

==================
Split Announcement
==================

Friday, September 21, 2001, 11:24 AM ET

Redwood Seeks "Wider Distribution"

Trading under 5,000 shares daily on the average, Redwood Empire 
Bancorp (Nasdaq:REBC) will be executing a 3-for-2 stock split of 
its outstanding common shares.  Payable on October 19, 
shareholders will receive one additional common share for every 
two shares owned. The Board of Directors made their announcement 
late Thursday.

The split will raise the number of outstanding shares to 
approximately 3.6 million and the float will increase to 2.1 
million. There are currently 10 million shares authorized for 
issuance.

President and CEO Patrick W. Kilkenny stated that Thursday's 
release was prompted by "a strong desire on our part to obtain a 
wider distribution and improve the market liquidity in our stock 
and by our confidence that the value of Redwood Empire Bancorp 
stock will continue to increase over time."

REBC shares closed Thursday at $34.76 and were trading up +0.19 
on strengthening volume by Friday's mid-day session. Shares have 
appreciated by 67 percent for the 52-weeks and are trading just 
below the high of $36. 

About the Company:

Redwood Empire Bancorp, through its principal operating 
subsidiary, National Bank of the Redwoods, provides diverse 
financial products and services. The Company offers commercial 
banking services primarily to businesses and professionals in the 
North Coast counties of California and conducts residential 
lending activities throughout Northern and Central California. 
The Company's business strategy includes the development of fee-
based products and services, which will provide insulation to the 
Company's results from changes in interest rates. (press release)

 


=================================================
Expected/Likely Announcements For The Coming Week
=================================================

                                    Date Expected 
Symbol         Company              To Announce
=================================================
ADVP           AdvancePCS              11/01
=================================================

EXPLANATION:

AdvancePCS - ADVP -    52-week range: 28.31 - 76.46

Calling itself "the nation's leading health improvement company"
this current split candidate is a provider of health benefit 
management services to pharmaceutical manufacturers and health 
plan supporters. The stock has performed well even with the 
Nasdaq hitting its worst levels recently. The company also 
confirmed that it is still comfortable with prior Q2 earnings 
estimates and it has not been materially affected by the tragedy 
of 9/11. 

We bring this stock to the attention of split traders due to the 
SEC filing of September 18, which calls forth shareholders to 
vote at the annual meeting of stockholders on November 1, 2001. 
The issue of interest is the proposal to amend the certificate of 
incorporation to increase the number of authorized common stock. 
The number of Class A shares would increase form 86.3 million to 
186.9 million if the motion is approved. There are currently 37.6 
million shares outstanding; therefore, there would be ample 
leeway for a 2-for-1 split after the amendment is passed, should 
it be the Board's intention.  The last split announcement, a 2:1 
in 1999, was at the $40 level.

PremierInvestor is not recommending this stock as a "play" at 
this time, but please view the "Current Play List" for the 
possible addition of ADVP in the near-term future.

chart = 


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of June 25th - June 29th
==================================================

  ------------------------
  Major Earnings This Week
  ------------------------

Symbol  Company              Date         Comment         EPS Est

GY      GenCorp              Mon, Sep 24  After the Close    0.37
FGP     Ferrellgas Partners  Mon, Sep 24  ----- n/a -----   -0.02

CCR     Countrywide Credit   Tue, Sep 25  Before the Bell    1.20
DF      Dean Foods           Tue, Sep 25  Before the Bell    0.50
LEH     Lehman Brothers      Tue, Sep 25  Before the Bell    1.08
AZO     AutoZone             Tue, Sep 25  After the Close    1.04
CHBS    Christopher & Banks  Tue, Sep 25  After the Close    0.31
CMGI    CMGI                 Tue, Sep 25  After the Close     N/A
FULL    H.B. Fuller          Tue, Sep 25  After the Close    0.83
MU      Micron Technology    Tue, Sep 25  After the Close   -0.31
BBBY    Bed Bath&Beyond      Tue, Sep 25  ----- n/a -----    0.18
GUC     Gucci Group          Tue, Sep 25  ----- n/a -----    0.56
SOSA    Stolt Offshore SA    Tue, Sep 25  ----- n/a -----    0.17
V       Vivendi              Tue, Sep 25  ----- n/a -----     N/A

BSC     Bear Stearns         Wed, Sep 26  Before the Bell    0.90
GS      Goldman Sachs        Wed, Sep 26  Before the Bell    0.81
NSI     National Service Ind Wed, Sep 26  After the Close    0.52
EDP     EDP Electricidade    Wed, Sep 26  ----- n/a -----     N/A
LNR     LNR Property         Wed, Sep 26  ----- n/a -----    0.96

SWY     Safeway              Fri, Sep 28  09:00 am ET        0.60


  -------------------------------
  Upcoming Stock Splits This Week
  -------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name          Splits  Payable    Executable
 
MOGa    Moog Inc.             3:2     09/21       09/24  
FHRX    First Horizon Pharm   3:2     09/24       09/25    
JNC     John Nuveen Company   3:2     09/27       09/28    
CECO    Career Education      2:1     09/28       10/01    
AAON    AAON, Inc.            3:2     09/28       10/01    
CEFT    Concord EFS Inc.      2:1     09/28       10/01    

  --------------------------
  Economic Reports This Week
  --------------------------

Next week's main economic events include the Consumer
Confidence report, Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales. 
Earnings warnings from several sectors will garner some 
additional attention, but the political front is likely
to be the primary focus.


Monday
======
Leading Indicators     Aug  Forecast:  -0.1%   Previous:   0.3%


Tuesday
=======
Consumer Confidence    Sep  Forecast:  109.0   Previous:  114.3
Existing Home Sales    Aug  Forecast:  5.20M   Previous:  5.17M


Wednesday
=========
None


Thursday
========
Initial Claims        9/22  Forecast:   410K   Previous:   387K
Durable Orders         Aug  Forecast:  -0.4%   Previous:  -0.7%
Help-Wanted Index      Aug  Forecast:    N/A   Previous:     58
New Home Sales         Aug  Forecast:   922K   Previous:   950K


Friday
======
Chain Deflator-final    Q2  Forecast:   2.2%   Previous:   2.2%
GDP-final               Q2  Forecast:   0.1%   Previous:   0.2%
Mich sentiment-rev     Sep  Forecast:   79.0   Previous:   83.6
Chicago PMI            Sep  Forecast:  42.3%   Previous:  43.5%


Week of October 1
====================
Oct 01 Auto Sales
Oct 01 Truck Sales
Oct 01 Personal Income
Oct 01 PCE
Oct 01 Construction Spending
Oct 01 NAPM Index
Oct 02 FOMC Meeting
Oct 03 NAPM Services
Oct 04 Initial Claims
Oct 04 Factory Orders
Oct 04 FOMC Minutes
Oct 05 Nonfarm Payrolls
Oct 05 Unemployment Rate
Oct 05 Hourly Earnings
Oct 05 Average Workweek
Oct 05 Consumer Credit


==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

  ---------------------------------
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  ---------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
BRP       Brasil Telecom Partic Sa  23.61  +0.51
SZA       Suiza Foods Corp          60.00  +0.75
CDCY      Compudyne Corp            16.20  +3.85
NXY       Nexen Inc                 21.63  +0.68
SCM       Swisscom Ag Ads           29.14  +0.89

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name                Close  Change
PCG       PG&E Corp Holdings          17.00  +1.28
ATPX      Advanced Technical Products 17.55  +1.55
BLDP      Ballard Power Systems       18.55  +2.84
FCEL      FuelCell Energy             14.35  +1.84
VSNX      Visionics Corp              10.40  +1.59

  ---------------------------------------
   Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  ---------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
TEF       Telefonica Sa             31.21  +1.01
GD        General Dynamics          84.02  +4.66
RTN       Raytheon Co               34.04  +1.54
CBH       Commerce Bancorp Inc      65.50  +1.70
PLCM      Polycom Inc               27.37  +3.10

  -----------------------------------------
   Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
 -------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
AZN       Astrazeneca Plc           42.60  -1.22
XOM       Exxon Mobil Corp          35.83  -1.19
UN        Unilever N.V.             54.90  -2.20
SGP       Schering-Plough           32.65  -1.49
PG        Procter & Gamble          67.00  -5.81

  ------------------------------------------------------------
   Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
  -------------------------------------------------------------

Ticker    Company Name              Close  Change
GIS       General Mills             43.40  -2.30


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