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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 10/17/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 10-17-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
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In section one:

Market Wrap: Recent Anthrax reports have bulls jittery
Market Sentiment: Markets continue their journey on thin ice.
Play-of-the-Day: Could Be Time to Buy Food
Watch List: QQQ, CHKP, CVC, HCR, CMA, WM

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U.S. Market Numbers
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      10-17-2001          High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9232.97 -151.26  9489.33  9226.95 1.44 bln   1143/1964
NASDAQ   1646.34 - 75.73  1754.01  1646.34 2.26 bln   1415/2215
S&P 100   554.67 -  9.47   569.15   554.26   Totals   2558/4179
S&P 500  1077.09 - 20.45  1107.12  1076.57             
RUS 2000  424.49 - 10.04   437.23   424.48
DJ TRANS 2228.50 - 69.22  2302.24  2228.50
VIX        37.12 +  1.90    37.23    34.23 
VXN        67.11 +  3.10    67.11    63.48
TRIN        1.48 
Put/Call    0.63
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===========
Market Wrap
===========


Recent Anthrax reports have bulls jittery

Stocks were firmly higher at the beginning of today's trading 
session on the heels International Business Machines' (NYSE:IBM) 
earnings, but renewed fears of anthrax exposure in Washington, DC 
had equity bulls pulling the carpet out from under stocks by 
session's end.

S&P 500 back below 1,082

In the last hour of trading, stocks picked up some downward 
momentum as the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) fell back below the 1,082 
level and closed at 1,077.  Early in the session, the SPX had 
rallied to a multiple week high of 1,107 when news from 
Washington DC hit the wires that the House of Representatives 
would be shut down for five days as it undergoes a security sweep 
following news that dozens of staff in Senator Tom Daschle's 
office were stricken by the bacteria.

Later, New York officials reported that anthrax was found in 
Governor George Pataki's midtown offices and this helped 
exacerbate today's reversal in stocks.

S&P 500 Index Chart - 





Today's 1.86% decline in the SPX doesn't appear to be much of a 
decline in percentage terms, but for some stocks the declines 
were higher.  First reports of anthrax at the civilian level 
occurred on October 12th and while the SPX did dip below the 
1,082 level that day, the index did not close below that level.  
Today's anthrax news looks to have market participants a little 
more eager to part with some profits they've found in stocks the 
past couple of weeks as uncertainty weighs on the market's 
psyche.

Greenspan said it best

In today's comments before a congressional panel, Federal Reserve 
Chairman Alan Greenspan stated the obvious when he said, "nobody 
has the capacity to fathom fully how the effects of the tragedy 
of September 11th will play out in our economy."  But humans have 
a "remarkable capacity to adapt to extraordinarily adverse 
circumstances."  Mr. Greenspan also added that businesses, 
investors and consumers have begun the process of adjusting to 
"altered perceptions of risk."

With Mr. Greenspan's comments in mind, I believe it becomes of 
utmost importance for traders and investors to measure the risk 
in their accounts by some type of level.  

For some it is a fixed "percentage" of their exposed investment 
portfolio that they are comfortable or at least willing to risk 
in the current market environment.  We knew before today that 
there is the potential for future terrorist threats and attacks.  
I stress the word "potential."  While the recent anthrax news has 
been fairly prevalent in the media, there has not been any tie to 
terrorists.

The retracement levels we've identified in our market commentary 
can also help traders and investors assess risk.  While some 
traders and investors perceive retracement brackets as some crazy 
method for identifying support and resistance levels, I prefer to 
use the retracement bracket as a way to assess risk.

In our chart above, we've been commenting on that retracement in 
the S&P 500 Index for weeks.  For example, on September 27th, the 
SPX closed above the 1,011 level.  At that time a bullish trader 
began assessing risk/reward (so did bearish traders).  A bullish 
trader may have said, "reward is 1,082 and risk is to 940."  
Trader/investors that thought risk to 940 was too much, may have 
then placed a 4% decline below the 1,011 level as their stop, or 
assessed risk to $970.

With one level of "reward" recently having been achieved at the 
1,082 level the tables may have turned.

As Mr. Greenspan pointed out (I have too, but Mr. Greenspan 
carries more weight) "nobody has the capacity to fathom fully how 
the effects of the tragedy of September 11th will play out in our 
economy." 

Applied Materials Chart -





Last night we knew that Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and International 
Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) had reported earnings and after-
market participants were responding favorably.  What we didn't 
know was that today's headlines were going to be plastered with 
"anthrax contamination."

However, we did "know" that anthrax and potential terrorist 
activities could adversely affect market conditions at any given 
point in time and decided to set a relatively tight stop under 
the trade (which was triggered by session's end) at $32.45.

Little good that does, it was a loser!

Yes, Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) was a losing trade and this 
is not good.  So why even bother trading long in an uncertain 
market environment?

This is a very good question and only a question that each 
individual can answer on their own.  Over the past week we've had 
several good reasons to trade bullish in some stocks where we 
could control our risk and where trade set-up was favorable given 
the market environment at the time.

Only by a discipline of trailing stops, understanding levels of 
risk/reward and NOT getting "greedy" with profits are we going to 
be able to survive.

As recently as Friday's market wrap, we did an exercise in 
pattern recognition between PeopleSoft (NASDAQ:PSFT) and 
Harmonic, Inc. (NASDAQ:HLIT).  Both stocks offered bullish 
traders some good upside action AFTER we had profiled these two 
stocks in intraday commentary or in PremierInvestor.net's play 
list.

Both of these stocks got hit to the downside today and both are 
right back at levels where we first identified them as potential 
bullish candidates.  Only by a methodical and disciplined 
approach of following these stocks higher with a trailing stop is 
a bullish trader now profitable.

Some action was bearish before today's anthrax scare

There was some action at the opening of today's trading that has 
me somewhat concerned near-term for bullish traders.

Yes, PeopleSoft (NASDAQ:PSFT) was downgraded this morning before 
the stock opened for trading at $27.96, but the MARKET seemed 
awfully eager to sell the stock just below our 61.8% retracement 
level of $30.37, which we felt was a level to be looking for some 
market maker resistance.  When we first mentioned the stock as 
bullish in the October 10th "market wrap" we had identified $30 
as a potential bullish target.  The next day, shares of PSFT 
traded as high as $29.54, but three days later the stock set 
higher lows, but was just unable to achieve anything above the 
$29.54 level.  "Somebody was-a-selling" and today we have a 
pretty good idea who!  Morgan Stanley who came with today's 
downgrade to "outperform" from "strong buy."  

eBay Inc. - last seven months





In last Thursday's 01:30 EST Update, I wrote an update regarding 
shares of eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) as a subscriber had "gotten 
caught short" in the stock from the $46 level and was beginning 
to get a little nervous with the stock trading $60.  In that 
article we discussed the point/figure chart of eBay and also 
mentioned the retracement bracket overlaid on the bar chart as 
displayed above.  At $60 we felt a trader that was short the 
stock needed to be assessing risk to $63 (very near our 19.1% 
retracement level of $62.86).  Even though this morning's broader 
NASDAQ was bullish, eBay sure seemed to find some eager sellers 
at the open.  This action is "suspicious" at best.  It makes 
sense that there were profit takers willing to sell broader 
market strength (heck, if we had profiled EBAY as a bullish play 
at $50 or $54, we'd have had a tight stop for sure).  

I don't necessarily think today's action in EBAY could be blamed 
on anthrax news, the stock didn't act all that bullish to begin 
with.  Shorts were getting squeezed from $50 to $63 so why would 
they quit covering this morning with such bullishness.  Only 
explanation was that risk/reward became unfavorable and sellers 
were ready, willing and able to lock in gains at our retracement 
level.

Valuation?  I'd argue that the fundamentals for EBAY did not 
change that much between last night's close of $61.60 and this 
morning's open of $61.79.  I think what we saw here today was 
that the stock had just gotten too profitable and risk/reward 
just wasn't there after a 37% move from $45.  We've been eager to 
set tight stops and sell 10%-18% gains considering market 
conditions, let alone 37% gains.

While today's "anthrax scare" didn't help the stock, I'll argue 
that it was just the right time for profit takers to step in and 
sell some strength at the open based on broader market 
bullishness.

Going forward

Considering today's action, I think market participants 
(especially bulls) are going to be a little jittery near-term.  
Last week we were more eager to play some technology stocks that 
had formed a rather tight pattern of consolidation where a break 
higher would have bulls running to cover and provide the needed 
demand for a move higher.

Some of the eagerness to sell stocks like PSFT, EBAY, HLIT and 
other stocks that had been acting bullish in previous sessions 
before today's anthrax scare will have us looking to play the 
bearish side of things near-term.

For the past 18-months, bulls have started to get wise to the 
idea that stocks just don't keep going up and the pattern of new 
52-week lows weighs heavy on their minds.  Bearish traders will 
undoubtedly prey on this psychology.  The key for us will be to 
minimize our risk and try our best to control it.

Perhaps some subscribers were willing to take some risk in 
bullish trades like PSFT, HLIT and AMAT.  As long as we were not 
"sky is the limit" trading, then we perhaps got two nice profits 
opportunities (PSFT, HLIT) and one loser (AMAT).

Now we're going to slowly turn and try the other direction.  Mind 
you, not all stocks are going to be winners to the downside.  

Don't think we weren't watching shares of Suiza Foods (NYSE:SZA) 
today to see how it was trading.  We've characterized this stock 
as "defensive" and this morning, the first hour of trading saw 
this stock jump from $58.80 to $60.75 in the first hour of 
trading.  The stock has pulled back close to where we originally 
profiled the stock as bullish on September 19th at $57.01 and 
were eventually stopped out for a profit at $62.50 after a nice 
little run higher in a difficult market environment where 
"defensive" food stocks did well.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Markets continue their journey on thin ice.
Russ Moore

Today’s action was another glaring example of how fragile the 
current market environment is. The markets got off to a great 
start thanks to big blue and a “not so bad” Intel report. A 
positive start, which had the DOW up 100 points in the first 
thirty minutes, was quickly erased however, after another Anthrax 
scare.

The markets never recovered with selling pressure intensifying 
into the close and the DOW ending with a loss of -1.6 percent. 
The NASDAQ and NDX shed -4.4 and 6.4 percent respectively, due to 
a weak performance in the chip sector.

Volume was up with 1.42 billion shares moving on the NYSE and 
2.04 billion shares trading on the NASDAQ. Market breadth had 
losers outperforming winners by a 20/11 margin on the big board 
and 22/14 spread on the tech index.

Broader markets saw paper, retail, airline, cyclical and biotech 
sectors taking the largest hit while chip, Internet and software 
bore the brunt of negative action in the tech arena.

Housing starts were slightly higher than expected coming in with 
a gain of +1.7 percent. Building permits were headed in the other 
direction with a decline of -3.0%.

Investors seem ready, willing, and able to push this market 
higher, but the growing uncertainty over non-market issues is a 
thorn in every investor’s side, and could cause a prolonged bout 
of choppy, volatile market action. 



VIX 
Wednesday 10/17 close: 37.15


VXN
Wednesday 10/17 close: 66.24


30-yr Bonds
Wednesday 10/17 close: 5.37


Total Put/Call Ratio: .72


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .60


Index Option Put/Call Ratio:  1.23


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 32.45

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 30/85,440
Maximum puts : 33/79,816

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 32
 20 DMA 31
 50 DMA 35
200 DMA 45

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 554.67

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 600/8,677
Maximum puts : 500/8,489

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  554
 20 DMA  538
 50 DMA  568
200 DMA  626

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1077.09

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1050/17,145
Maximum puts : 1050/21,991

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1079
 20 DMA 1049
 50 DMA 1110
200 DMA 1213

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,232.95

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/27,519
Maximum Puts   100/38,806

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,226
 20 DMA  8,957
 50 DMA  9,630
200 DMA 10,337

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 480.57

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/ 323
Maximum Puts:  440/2003

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 479
 20 DMA 460
 50 DMA 490
200 DMA 541

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 428.62

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 490/2,241
Maximum Puts:  390/2,132

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 435
 20 DMA 407
 50 DMA 500
200 DMA 589

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 397.38

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/605
Maximum Puts:  360/628

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 394
 20 DMA 386
 50 DMA 389
200 DMA 395

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday 10/12
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
9/25/01      357,873   407,036   (49,163)   (24.9%)
10/02/01     365,200   408,567   (43,367)   (11.7%)
10/09/01     369,049   407,804   (38,755)   (10.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
9/25/01        122,613    71,721    50,892     (29.7%)
10/02/01       124,249    73,882    50,367      (1.1%)
10/09/01       122,292    74,539    47,753      (5.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
9/25/01       26,761    36,812   (10,051)   (1.8%)
10/02/01      26,703    37,699   (10,996)    9.4%
10/09/01      24,662    38,020   (13,358)   21.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
9/25/01        10,699     6,580    4,119     251.0%)
10/02/01       10,918     6,804    4,114      (0.1%)
10/09/01       11,948     7,012    4,936      20.0%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
9/25/01       20,013     7,806   12,207     (8.5%)
10/02/01      22,755    10,124   12,631      3.5%
10/09/01      24,873    10,194   14,679     16.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
9/25/01        4,530    12,621    (8,091)      4.9%
10/02/01       4,731    11,868    (7,137)    (12.1%)
10/09/01       3,517    12,294    (8,777)     23.0%
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +47,753     +50,367        -38,755     -43,367

Total Open
Interest %       (+24.26%)  (+25.42%)     (-4.99%)   (-5.60%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -8,777     -7,137          +14,679    12,631
Total Open
interest %       (-55.51%)    (-43.00%)      (+41.86%)  (+38.42%)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +4936      +4114         -13,358    -10,996

Total Open
Interest %        (+26.03%)   (+23.21%)     (-21.31%) (-17.07%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Commercials have once again reduced their net-short 
positions, albeit by a small percentage. Are they moving to a 
net-long accumulation position? Only time will tell.

Gold:.Commercials continue to hold a significant number of net-
short contracts, and up until today, we did see the gold index 
fall a substantial amount. Today’s Anthrax scare had investors 
running for cover and the safety of gold once again, and the 
index enjoyed a nice gain.  .

9/18  49,456 contracts net-short
9/25  36,638 contracts net-long
10/02 67,122 contracts net-short
10/09 64,729 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 10/09 by the CFTC.



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

Suiza Foods - SZA - close: 59.35 change: +0.75 stop: 57.90 

Company Description:
Suiza Foods Corporation, based in Dallas, is the nation's leading 
dairy processor and distributor, producing a full line of 
company-branded and customer-branded products. Additionally, the 
company owns approximately 43% of Consolidated Container Company, 
one of the nation's largest manufacturers of rigid plastic 
containers. (source: company press release)

- Most Recent Comments on October 16th, 2001 -

If you thought going long at 59.43 with a stop at 57.50 was a 
good entry then jumping in at 58.60 should look great.  Our 
defensive food play slipped on us this Monday as techs took the
spotlight again.  SZA rallied higher early this morning but 
again it looks like investors ignored it to focus on other
sectors.  Why play a defensive stock when techs stocks are all
in rally mode?  Good question.  We're interested in SZA because
like every stock/sector/market, it moves in cycles.  The stock
has sold off to its 50-dma and this is the third day it has
been trading above this support.  If it wasn't for today's spike
this morning we'd probably be a bit more concerned that the
chart was showing lower highs.  To be honest, it wouldn't hurt
to wait for the turnaround to begin before initiating a position.
However, to make the risk/reward scenario even better we're 
going to slide our stop right up to 57.90.  The last three days
have seen the low at or near 58.40 and this will allow for a
50 cent leeway.  SZA will probably see interest the first 
significant down day in the broader markets.  Until then be 
patient.

Monday's Update:
The bulls finally breathed some life back into shares of SZA 
this morning with a strong rally to over $61.  Unfortunately,
the growing anthrax scare sent shares sliding with the rest
of the markets.  We like SZA as the play of the day for
tomorrow because this is the fourth day that support at the
50-dma has been holding and if the markets continue to slide
into the weekend a defensive play like SZA could see increased
buying pressure.  Conservative traders should consider waiting
until shares close above $60.

Picked on October 12th at $59.43
Gain since picked:         -0.08
Earnings Date              11/07 (confirmed)





==========
Watch List
==========

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

---

Nasdaq-100 Tracking Stock - QQQ - close: 32.45 change: -2.51

WHAT TO WATCH:  The Nasdaq composite may have slipped 4% but
the NDX (Nasdaq 100) fell over 6% and the QQQs slipped over 7%.
If you're feeling bearish on the tech sector you may consider
trading the QQQs.  Some speculate it could probably fall back
to $30.  If the 7.5% trade isn't enough to pull the trigger
then consider playing options on the QQQs.  




---

Check Point Software - CHKP - close: 29.12 change: -3.05

WHAT TO WATCH:  CHKP turned in a very bearish performance today.
The bearish engulfing candlestick appears to be setting this
stock up for a trade back to $25.50.  The GSO software index
also took a dive and both the index and CHKP will be influenced
by what MSFT says in their earnings report on Thursday.  We 
would consider this a short with a very tight stop, say $31.10.




---

Cablevision Sys - CVC - close: 36.05 change: -1.63

WHAT TO WATCH:  We highlighted CVC as a possible short play on
Monday's watch list and the stock is really look weak with
Today's trading.  The breakdown on Monday has been confirmed
and the stock dropped another 4% on very big volume.  Who 
knows how far this bearish trend could take it.




---

Manor Care - HCR - close: 23.29 change: -1.46

WHAT TO WATCH:  Manor Care is under performing its sector and
the breakdown of its 200-dma yesterday was confirmed today with
a 5.8% drop on strong volume.  A quick glance at the chart shows
potential support at $19 and $20.  Could be a nice short with a
stop at 24.25.




---

Comerica Inc - CMA - close: 47.26 change: -1.77

WHAT TO WATCH:  CMA is another financial stock that is in a 
painful spiral downward.  Last week the stock set support at
$48 and rallied up towards $53.  Now the stock has broken
below $48 and is at levels not seen since last November.




---

Washington Mutual - WM - close: 33.01 change: -4.09

WHAT TO WATCH:  Investors are a tough crowd.  Profits were up but
WM missed estimates by a penny.  WM suffered a bad case of sell
the news powered by the anthrax scare which sent shares falling
more than 11%.  Wednesday's close was on very strong volume and
the stock is now below September's support of 33.70.  Looks like
a bearish play.







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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
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only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Wednesday 10-17-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section two:

Net Bulls
  Closed Bullish Plays: AMAT, CSCO, QCOM

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Closed Bearish Play: LTR

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

============
NB Plays
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Applied Materials Inc - AMAT - close: 32.14 change: -2.31 stop: 32.45

In uncertain times the grip of fear and the unknown can have
investors hitting the sell button before anyone takes the time
to assess crisis events and their potential affects on the stocks
they are selling.  The new evolution in the anthrax scare in
our capital was the culprit today.  The Nasdaq and many tech
stocks, including AMAT, opened the day higher before succumbing
to a steady day of selling pressure.  We thought AMAT would be
able to pull through without being stopped out but with less
than 20 minutes left in the session the stock took a sharp dive
lower and traded through our stop at 32.45.  The candlestick 
pattern created today for AMAT and many stocks was a bearish
engulfing pattern.  One might expect shares of AMAT to trade 
down to $30 to find support again before the bulls try and 
get another rally going.  Let's hope it doesn't trade much lower.

Picked on October 11th at $34.45
Gain since picked:         -2.00
Earnings Date              11/13 (not confirmed)




---

Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 15.60 change: -1.37 stop: 15.85

If you were frustrated that you missed your chance to buy CSCO
near $15, you may get your chance again shortly.  Shares of 
CSCO produced a similar trading pattern to AMAT (above) with
a higher open before giving in to selling pressure throughout
the day.  Our long play on CSCO almost survived but the last
half hour of trading sent shares spinning lower and through our
stop.  If you elected to play with a stop at 15.50 (per our
discussion yesterday) you're still in the play but we fear
you will likely be stopped out tomorrow.  The stock has closed
back below its 50-dma while producing its own bearish engulfing
candlestick pattern.  We would expect the stock to slip back to
support at $15 (or lower).  We'll keep our eyes open for new entry 
points once investor sentiment turns positive again.

Picked on October 16th at $16.97
Gain since picked:         -1.12
Earnings Date              11/05 (not confirmed)




---

QUALCOMM Inc - QCOM - close: 46.70 change: -3.15 stop: 47.00

All aboard.  Next stop for the QCOM train is $45.00.  If we
have enough passengers and fuel it may decide to revisit the
$40 level again.  Sounds crazy doesn't it.  It was only a 
couple of days ago that investors were feeling confident and
tech stocks were making very strong gains.  Suddenly, the
always emotional market has turned fearful again.  Today's
trading pattern for QCOM is very bearish like many tech stocks
and we would expect the stock to slip to $45 at the minimum
and potentially further.  This means we can look for another
long play when it has re-established support.

Picked on October 16th at $49.85
Gain since picked:         -2.85
Earnings Date              11/06 (confirmed)







==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Plays 
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Play 
  --------------------

Loews Corp - LTR - close: 47.76 change: -0.15 stop: 48.50 

Shares of LTR continue to trade under overhead resistance
between $48 and $48.50 but a late day rally to 48.59 triggered
our stop.  The 50-dma (at 48.87) should continue to put pressure
on the stock price and the MACD has yet to cross over into
positive territory even though the trend is current positive
for the indicator (the histogram has gone sideways).  Considering
the strength LTR showed today compared to the rest of the market
shorts may want to wait for a breakdown below $45.

Picked on October 12th at $46.01
Gain since picked:         -2.49
Earnings Date               N/A  (not confirmed)





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UBS     Ubs Ag                     45.38     +0.66
HI      Household Intl             57.16     +1.16
CEG     Constellation Energy       27.97     +0.63
MUR     Murphy Oil Corp            81.30     +1.10
TKS     Tomkins                    10.23     +0.83
BTU     Peabody Energy             30.20     +1.49

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CDN     Cadence Design Systems     20.00     +1.40
INFS    Infocus Corp               17.16     +2.82
SURE    Surebeam Corp              11.25     +2.44
IONA    Iona Technolgies           12.08     +1.48
CURE    Curative Health Services   11.90     +1.21

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

IBM     Intl Business Machines     102.90     +1.05
EDS     Electronic Data Sys         60.50     +1.59
DHR     Danaher Corp                55.47     +1.07
YUM     Tricon Global               47.60     +1.10
CEC     Cec Entertainment           37.40     +2.48
ACAM    Acambis                     36.35     +7.34

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

LLY     Eli Lilly & Co             75.00     -4.00
AOL     AOL Time Warner            30.81     -2.69
SAP     Sap                        26.56     -2.00
KMB     Kimberly Clark             54.25     -1.33
GD      General Dynamics           83.75     -7.35
LLTC    Linear Technology         37.04     -4.04

------------------------------------------------------------ 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

WY      Weyerhaeuser Co            49.04     -1.67
MGA     Magna Intl                 51.91     -2.41
MERQ    Mercury Interactive        22.94     -4.52
NAV     Navistar Intl              29.88     -1.72




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