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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 11/02/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-02-2001
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap: Vinegar and Baking Soda Mixed
Market Sentiment: This was no Yankee game
Play-of-the-Day: Are the Semis a Buy?
Watch List: -postponed until Monday-

------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
------------------------------------------------------------------
        WE 11-02         WE 10-26         WE 10-19        WE 10-12
DOW      9323.54 -221.63  9545.17 +341.06  9204.11 -140.05 +224.39
Nasdaq   1745.73 - 23.23  1768.96 + 97.65  1671.31 - 32.09 + 98.10
S&P-100   559.99 -  7.99   567.98 + 14.18   553.80 -  6.98 + 11.40
S&P-500  1087.20 - 17.41  1104.61 + 31.13  1073.48 - 18.17 + 20.27
W5000   10016.81 -168.72 10185.53 +290.64  9894.89 -154.23 +212.01
RUT       433.07 -  5.58   438.65 + 12.95   425.70 -  2.89 + 13.62
TRAN     2246.66 -   .92  2247.58 + 73.30  2174.28 - 60.45 + 25.31
VIX        32.40 +  1.87    30.53 -  5.31    35.84 -   .61 +  1.79
VXN        61.19 +  4.28    56.91 - 12.37    69.28 +  3.30 +  2.63
TRIN        0.92             0.87             1.19            1.08
TICK        +701             +828             +342            +283
Put/Call     .70              .53              .80             .76  
------------------------------------------------------------------
WE= week ended

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Vinegar and Baking Soda Mixed

Today's trading session reflects the bulk of this weeks trading.  
"Mixed" would be the word that seems to sum things up best.  Down 
for a day or two, then up for a day or two.  Try buying something 
that looks to be breaking out to the upside and you found mixed 
results, but most likely the stock got pushed back lower and 
stopped you out.

Try shorting something that looked to be breaking down and 
chances are, the stock found buyers as it all of a sudden became 
a value play on prospects that the underlying dynamics now have 
become interesting.

In a market that has lacked any type of trend over the past three 
weeks, it has become a guessing game as to why stocks are doing 
what they're doing.  For every bullish scenario, there's a 
bearish scenario that makes as much sense.

Yes, mixed would be a good word for things right now.  Add the 
word "up" and you have mixed up.  Right now, even traders on the 
trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange have little clue as 
to which way things are going to go.  Without any type of trend 
to the market in the past three weeks, who could possibly think 
otherwise.

I keep a spreadsheet of the major market averages and indexes.  
Each week I place the final close of Friday's session, then color 
the final week's number "blue" (up) and red (down).  On a white 
background, my spreadsheet is beginning to look like something 
like the American flag, only the stripes are alternating red and 
blue.  Once again... mixed, very mixed.

This weeks results

The broader based averages finished the week lower.  The New York 
Composite (NYA.X) fell 1.6% to 557, while the Dow Industrials 
gave back 222 points or 2.3%.  The S&P 500 (SPX.X) fell 1.5% and 
the narrower S&P 100 (OEX.X) fell 1.2%.  The broader NASDAQ 
Composite (COMPX) declined 1.3% as some of the larger capitalized 
stocks in the NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) fell 2%.  The smaller 
capitalized stocks characterized by the Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 
faired the best, but still dropped 1.1%.

This weeks clear sector winner was the Disk Drive Index (DDX.X), 
posting gains for the 6th straight week in a row.

Disk Drive Index Chart - 




Traders/investors that don't mind wearing a neck brace when 
considering a wild technology sector to trade in don't mind 
trading in disk drive stocks.  In late 1997, this index traded 
near the $300 level.  One year later, in October of 1998, this 
group fell to a low of $88 (-70%).  Three months later, in 
January of 1999, the DDX had soared 206% to a high of $270, only 
to decline 72% to $75 by October of that year.

If you're looking for a wild ride, stock symbols for those stocks 
that comprise the index are ADPT, ADIC, HTCH, IOM, FLSH, MXO, 
DSS, RDRT, SNDK and STK.  When they're hot their hot, when 
they're not, they're not.

Gold stocks as depicted by the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) ranked 
this weeks #2 sector gainer as the XAU.X rose $3 to $55.83, 
closing right on a rounding 50-day moving average.  Even though 
there were little signs of inflation in this weeks economic data, 
the group managed to get a technical bounce off of upward trend 
dating back to the November 2000 lows.

Gold/Silver Index Chart -




Future action in the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) might just be the 
near-term predictor for the broader stock market.  Gold stocks 
can be tricky, but often times the market will "show its hand" 
and turn to this group if it thinks inflation is going to creep 
into the economic picture.  Under current economic conditions 
some inflation might be considered good as it could indicate 
potential economic growth occurring.  Combined with bond YIELDS, 
Gold/Silver stocks have often times been the vinegar and baking 
soda that puts some fizz in the broader market for a move higher 
(note: when you combine vinegar and baking soda, you get a 
chemical reaction.  Good combination for cleaning off corrosion 
on the car batter terminals).

On the above chart, note the intervals marked from April 2nd to 
May 18th.  There were no threats of terrorism during that time, 
just a lot of talk about how poor the economy was doing.  Now 
look at the 10-year YIELD Chart (vinegar) and see if this makes 
sense.  Remember, the Fed has been aggressively cutting rates 
since the beginning of January.

10-year YIELD chart





This week, the Treasury announced it would suspend further 
auctions in the 30-year Treasury.  The knee-jerk reaction had the 
market buying up bonds like crazy and driving YIELD lower.  
Interesting how the YIELD on the 10-year dropped right down to 
the October 1998 lows!  Remember what was taking place back then?  
The Russian debt crisis and "the Asian flu."  Lots of people 
thought the world was coming to and end and the global markets 
were headed for financial ruin!  

In the "Bailey's Basics" section of PremierInvestor.net there is 
a piece of commentary titled "This is the most important thing 
I'll write today."  That article was written the day after March 
22nd (marked on the chart above).  If you get a chance, please 
read that article.

Then, to blow you're mind, read the next "Bailey's Basics" from 
March 26th titled "10-year YIELD at 4.835%!"  That article was 
written when YIELDS were moving higher and gold stocks were 
pulling into the upward trend we're monitoring.  When bond YIELD 
and gold stocks got going in the same direction, that's when the 
S&P 500 finally got going.

S&P 500 Index Chart - 





All week traders have been pummeled with economic data that has 
been weaker than previous week or previous months data.  "The 
economy is going in the tank" is what the bottom line reads.  Has 
this week's economic data been any better than what we were 
getting in March and April?  No, it has been a lot worse.

Many investors/traders probably feel like they did back in 
October of 1998.  Overseas markets were in complete meltdown mode 
during the Russian debt crisis and "Asian flu."  

It may just be a coincidence, but this week the 10-year YIELD 
fell to the EXACT same YIELD low found in 1998, before it snapped 
back around and headed higher.  On the above chart of the S&P 
500, I've extended horizontally a red trend line from the S&P 500 
low during that same period (October 8, 1998).  

Scratching our heads

This week's play list on PremierInvestor.net didn't do very well.  
Don't think I didn't notice, nor the stock pickers.  We were 
using relatively tight stops.  Bearish plays were stopped out as 
fast as we added them and bullish plays were stopped out at the 
same rate.

Hedge funds are scratching their heads too.  Some funds may be 
getting themselves in a bit of a fix as they usually don't use as 
tight of stops as we do (every subscriber can't afford to take 
every trade we profile so we use stops, where a hedge fund has 
more flexibility and more capital to work with).  

This week, there was enough bad economic data that the S&P 500 
could have easily rolled over and broken the 1,050 level, but it 
didn't.

Bond YIELDS fell sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the 
Treasury announcement, but have almost reversed all of their 
price gains from those two sessions as YIELD has snapped back.

This week, look for what doesn't make sense!

What "won't make sense" the next couple of weeks is for the 
longer end of the bond market to start heading higher.  The 
Treasury said they would limit supply of longer-term bonds by 
discontinuing the 30-year auction.  Anytime something is limited 
in supply, the usual result is that price should rise.  

Aha!  Now you say, "Jeff, that's not always the case.  What if 
nobody wants to buy what you have, even though supply is 
limited?"  

Then I say, "Yes, but the economic numbers say the economy is 
going in the tank and you should want the safety of my longer-
term Treasury bonds that offer a whopping 4.3% YIELD!"

But then we start looking at our own portfolio from 
PremierInvestor.net.  Where did we make any type of gains this 
week?  Aside from Monday's closing of biotech stock Protein 
Design Labs (NASDAQ:PDLI) for a 15% gain, not much!  This does 
not make me happy, but I don't get mad, I get even and then I go 
kick over somebody's can of worms!

But there are two stocks where we've got some pretty good gains 
going.  Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) "drug" and Manor Care 
(NYSE:HCR) "healthcare."  That doesn't make sense!  Both stocks 
belong to sectors that are considered DEFENSIVE.  That doesn't 
make sense!

If everything is going in the tank, then "defensive" stocks 
should be doing well shouldn't they?  Why haven't these two 
stocks done well is my question?  

You see.... it just doesn't make sense!

Now, maybe next Friday, everything will make sense.  Maybe the 
market will wake up to this weeks economic numbers that told us 
"what was", but not "what will be."

Usually nothing makes sense at market tops or market bottoms for 
that matter.  In January of 2000, it didn't make sense that 
longer-term bond YIELDS started to fall when the Fed had raised 
rates on November 16th, 1999 and again on February 2, 2000 by 25 
basis points to 5.75%.

Conversely, it shouldn't make sense that bond YIELDS rise in the 
near-term, since the Fed has been aggressively cutting rates and 
will most likely do so again at next weeks FOMC meeting.  It also 
wouldn't make sense for longer-term bonds to rise in YIELD 
considering this week's announcement by the Treasury that is 
would limit supply going forward.

We'll have fun and I think we'll make money!

If you have time, go to "Bailey's Basics" section of 
PremierInvestor.net articles from March 23, 2001 to March 26, 
2001.  Those articles were taken from "live" updates that I was 
writing at the time based purely on bond YIELD.  

On March 20th, the FOMC had cut interest rates 50 basis points to 
5% and the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction 
in the discount rate to 4.5%.  Two days later March 23rd, all 
heck broke loose in the bond market as the 10-year YIELD jerked 
higher and traders were put on alert that they could see a stock 
rally of "biblical proportions."

On March 26th, the 10-year YIELD broke above a key level I 
thought would trigger a large rally in stocks.  The S&P 500 
jumped 44 points (+3.8%) that day, but then pulled back for 6 
sessions in an attempt to retest the then market low.  During 
that time, the 10-year bond YIELD also pulled back, but nowhere 
near it's relative low, and when the YIELD snapped back higher on 
April 10th, the S&P 500 caught fire and had a nice rally for the 
next six weeks.

You will see from that commentary, that bulls were "on our bikes 
and riding" on March 26th.  Then we hit some bumps until smooth 
pavement was found.

In the next two weeks, I think we're in for a similar type of 
market environment that presented itself this spring.  There are 
some pieces of the puzzle that need to fall into place, but I 
think I know what to be looking for.

In summary

If a bullish stock environment is to be present, I think equity 
bulls want to see a higher YIELD in the long-end of the bond 
market.  

Should the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) tick higher or make a sharp 
move higher (without terrorist activities) then this plants the 
seed for inflation, which in my mind at this point of the 
economic cycle means economic growth.  I don't think we 
necessarily need gold stocks to move higher, but something I'll 
be looking for in relation to bond YIELDS.

I'll want to be keeping an eye on some of the "defensive" sectors 
like drugs and healthcare.  They've been somewhat weak the past 
two weeks.

I also want to keep an eye on the Retail Index (RLX.X). We're 
going to continue to be inundated with economic data.  This week, 
the Retail Index was hit to the downside earlier in the week, but 
stage a late week rally to finish down just fractionally.  As 
weak as the economy is supposed to be, the group has been holding 
together pretty well.  Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) slipped earlier in the 
week from its #1 ranking in our Dow Portfolio, but like the 
sector, managed to rally back and regain the #1 slot by Friday's 
close.

I also want to keep an eye on the Internet Index (INX.X).  It got 
hammered this week as it fell 10% and lead sector losers for the 
week.  I've been using this index only as a measure of how 
aggressive the market is on the buy side.  It's weakness this 
week tells me that the market is not willing to chase stocks or 
be too aggressive on the buy side.

The Oil Service Index (OSX.X) will be watched closely too.  My 
reading here is that this group of stocks will only move higher 
on thoughts that the economy is going to be recovering in the 
next 6-months.  Late last week, the sector made a powerful move 
out of some consolidation, only to give it back this week with a 
9% decline.  Oil service stocks haven't benefited from higher oil 
prices due to OPEC productions cuts.  They benefit most when the 
economy is chugging down oil and natural gas commodities and OPEC 
raises production to feed consumption.  Since stocks move ahead 
of this type of activity, I think equity bulls want to see some 
bullishness from this group.  A break much below the $75 level on 
the OSX.X and it could be a long, cold winter for energy stocks 
as well as the U.S. economy.

Transportation Index (TRAN) held tough this past week and fell 
just $1 to $2,246.  This group can benefit from two things.  One 
is lower oil/fuel prices (like we've been getting with lower 
crude oil prices), but also from renewed economic activity.  We 
should keep an eye on crude oil and this group.  If they make a 
break higher or lower, we need to be monitoring crude oil.  If 
crude oil is falling and the TRAN falls, then we get the feeling 
the MARKET is saying slow economy.  Should crude rise and TRAN 
rise, then I get message that some type of growth is expected.

The deeper cyclicals like the Forest/Paper Products Index (FPP.X) 
and Chemical Index (CEX.X).  In a recovery phase for the economy, 
these two should move higher.  Both made sharp v-bottoms from 
September lows and look to be putting in some "handles" of 
consolidation for the past two weeks.  On Friday, the Chemical 
Index (CEX.X) broke above their October 11th high of $404, 
something they hadn't been able to do since that time.  Du Pont 
(NYSE:DD) is now ranked #4 in our Dow Industrial Portfolio dating 
back to September 10th close (day prior to terrorist attacks).

Bond YIELDS are most likely going to be wild the next week or so.  
Lots of things for participants there to think about and adjust 
to based on this week's Treasury announcement.  I still feel that 
some selling in the long end would be good for equities going 
forward.  Will also watch the shorter maturities in the 13-week 
and 5-year to make sure that any money coming out of the longer 
end (if it happens) doesn't just rotate to the short end and 
bypass equities.

Well.... it has been a long week and I'm tired.  I will try and 
post the Dow Industrial "ranking" that we've normally done every 
Friday, but I wanted to try and bring everyone up to speed on 
some things I'm seeing in the Gold/Silver Index and Treasury 
bonds that look similar to what we were seeing in late March and 
early April of this year.

It never comes together all in one day.  Everything is a process.

Have a great weekend and get plenty of rest.  I know I need some!


Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

This was no Yankee game
by Russ Moore

This was no Yankee game. Perhaps it’s an unfair comparison, but 
today’s Wall Street action was a little hard to take after 
watching the last two World Series nail-biters. 

Markets were relatively quiet throughout the session with the DOW 
managing a modest gain of +0.6 percent. The NASDAQ ended with a 
fractional loss of -0.5 percent while the NDX squeaked out a gain 
of +0.1 percent.

Volume was light with only 1.11 billion shares trading on the big 
board and 1.62 billion shares moving on the NASDAQ. It was 
winners by a nose with a 16/15 victory on the NYSE. The NASDAQ 
saw losers outshine winners by a 19/16 count.

Sectors on the rise included gold, insurance, brokerage, retail, 
paper, and chemical. Natural gas, utility, oil and oil service 
were all trading down. Chips and hardware sectors continued their 
winning ways while software and Internet stocks slipped.

Once again we started the day with horrific economic numbers, and 
once again we saw investors choose to ignore the news and send in 
their buy orders. Non-farm payrolls hit the skids with 415,000 
jobs lost versus the 310,000 forecast. The unemployment rate came 
in at 5.4 percent, slightly higher than the 5.2 percent expected. 
Factory orders were also down with a drop of 5.8 percent, much 
worse than the 4.9 percent forecast.

We keep hearing that bullish sentiment is growing stronger and 
yet, volume has not been increasing. If investors are indeed 
growing horns, shouldn’t we be seeing all that sideline money 
making its way to Wall Street? Trim Tabs continue to report 
equity redemption’s, and, money market funds continue to hold 
massive sums of money. A more likely scenario is that the 
infamous “Mutual Fund manager” is the one placing the buy orders 
while manipulating their portfolios. There can be little doubt 
that sentiment has shifted to the bullish side, however, until we 
see a few positive sessions, with substantial volume, the bears 
will not go into hibernation.



VIX 
Friday 11/02 close: 32.40


VXN
Friday 11/02 close: 61.19


30-yr Bonds
Friday 11/02 close: 4.95


Total Put/Call Ratio: .78


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .57


Index Option Put/Call Ratio:  1.99


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 35.60

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 35/61,545
Maximum puts : 33/92,502

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 34
 20 DMA 34
 50 DMA 33
200 DMA 43

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 559.99

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 560/5,918
Maximum puts : 480/8,227

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  557
 20 DMA  556
 50 DMA  555
200 DMA  618

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1087.20

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1100/18,256
Maximum puts :  950/22,831

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1083
 20 DMA 1081
 50 DMA 1083
200 DMA 1199

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,323.54

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 94/24,894
Maximum Puts   92/20,109

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,312
 20 DMA  9,276
 50 DMA  9,365
200 DMA 10,252

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 550.12

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 580/  517
Maximum Puts:  420/1,576

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 545
 20 DMA 515
 50 DMA 496
200 DMA 538

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 489.44

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 570/ 503
Maximum Puts:  420/ 795

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 460
 20 DMA 449
 50 DMA 464
200 DMA 578

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 391.72

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 420/ 284
Maximum Puts:  400/1000

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 393
 20 DMA 394
 50 DMA 388
200 DMA 393

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday 11/02
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
10/16/01     378,866   415,289   (36,423)   ( 6.0%)
10/23/01     377,177   413,658   (36,481)     0.1%
10/30/01     377,468   413,729   (36,261)   (0.06%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
10/16/01       124,568    73,779    50,789     6.3%
10/23/01       127,016    71,212    55,804     9.9%
10/30/01       123,546    71,225    52,321    (6.2%)
  
Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
10/16/01      27,398    40,397   (12,999)   (2.7%)
10/23/01      29,920    40,358   (10,438)  (19.7%)
10/30/01      32,055    45,574   (13,519)   29.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
10/16/01       12,901     6,893    6,008      21.7%
10/23/01       11,567     6,934    4,633     (22.9%)
10/30/01       12,725     6,475    6,250      34.9%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
10/16/01      25,402    10,267   15,135      3.1%
10/23/01      25,568    11,832   13,736     (9.2%)
10/30/01      25,872    12,556   13,316     (3.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
10/16/01       4,514    12,104    (7,590)    (13.5%)
10/23/01       4,902    11,900    (6,998)     (7.8%)
10/30/01       4,261    11,220    (6,959)      0.0%
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +52,321     +55,804        -36,261     -36,481

Total Open
Interest %       (+26.86%)  (+28.15%)     (-4.58%)   (-4.61%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -6,959     -6,998          +13,316    13,736
Total Open
interest %       (-44.95%)    (-41.65%)      (+34.65%)  (+36.73%)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +6,250      +4,633         -13,519    -10,438

Total Open
Interest %        (+32.55%)   (+25.04%)     (-17.41%) (-14.85%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.For the third week in a row, Commercials have shown 
little change in their net-short positions on the S&P 500. We did 
see the Small Specs and Commercials move in opposite directions 
on the NASDAQ 100 with the Small Specs adding to their net-longs 
and the Commercials increasing their net-shorts.

Gold: No significant changes on Commercial positions.

10/02 67,122 contracts net-short
10/09 64,729 contracts net-short
10/16 51,816 contracts net-short
10/23 25,191 contracts net-short
10/30 33,199 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 10/30 by the CFTC.



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

NEW BULLISH PLAY
=================

Adaptec Inc - ADPT - close: 12.86 change: +0.38 stop: 11.80

Company Description:
Adaptec Inc. provides highly available storage access solutions 
that reliably move, manage and protect critical data and digital 
content. Adaptec's storage solutions are found in high-
performance networks, servers, workstations and desktops from the 
world's leading manufacturers, and are sold through OEMs and 
distribution channels to ISPs, enterprises, medium and small 
businesses and consumers.  (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The semiconductor sector has always tended to be a leader for the 
Nasdaq both into and out of bull and bear markets.  It looks like 
the recent consolidation over the last two weeks coupled with the 
last three days of positive gains has the SOX poised for a 
breakout to the upside.  Underpinning our bullish perspective is 
the third month in a row of improved semiconductor billings.  We 
looked at several chip stocks and many of them had returned to 
last week's highs but one of them appeared to be leading the way.  
ADPT is showing very strong buy signals on relative strength 
charts against the SOX and the SPX.  If the SOX can power through 
the 490 to 500 area then ADPT should be able to make sizeable 
gains.  We also like ADPT for the strong technical breakout that 
occurred on Oct. 25th.  The $12 level had been a lid on the stock 
for months and ADPT burst through and confirmed with a second 
positive day.  Since then the tech sector has retraced some gains 
but ADPT held the $12 level and appears poised for the next leg 
up.  Any dip to $12.00 or $12.50 should be buyable but we don't 
expect this to occur unless the Nasdaq or SOX is down 
significantly on Monday.  If you prefer, look for shares to trade 
above $13 as a potential entry.  We're going to start the play 
with a stop at 11.80.  This is a little more heat than we like to 
trade with, about 7.8%, but the potential reward is worth it.  We 
picked 11.80 because the Thursday low was 11.85 which was also 
the 10-dma.  Now the 10-dma is resting at $12 which will 
strengthen the price support already there.  The long-term 
bullish price objective for ADPT is north of $20 but our short-
term target is $15.00, or 16%. You can look back to last January 
to see resistance at 15.25 and we're planning to exit just 
beforehand.  As with any tech play, you may want to wait until 
after the CSCO earnings announcement on Monday.  CSCO isn't a 
chip stock but it is seen as such a pillar of the technology 
sector that positive or negative comments from their conference 
call could (and probably will) direct the Nasdaq's short-term 
trend.

Picked on November 2nd at $12.86
Gain since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date              10/18 (confirmed)






==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

-------------------

Reader Notice!


Due to the addition of the new High Risk/High Reward section 
we had to postpone the watch list for the weekend.  Look for
the Watch list to be back on schedule this Monday, Nov. 5th.


-------------------



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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-02-2001
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bullish Plays:    ADPT, VRTS, LRCX, NMTC

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Plays:     HON
  New Bearish Plays:     AHC, PPDI
  Bullish Play Updates:  BMS, CLX
  Bearish Play Updates:  BMY, DME, HCR, 
  Closed Bearish Plays:  HD, SPC

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:    HM, HTCH

Split Trader
  - none -

==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  ----------------
  New Bullish Play
  ----------------

Adaptec Inc - ADPT - close: 12.86 change: +0.38 stop: 11.80

Company Description:
Adaptec Inc. provides highly available storage access solutions 
that reliably move, manage and protect critical data and digital 
content. Adaptec's storage solutions are found in high-
performance networks, servers, workstations and desktops from the 
world's leading manufacturers, and are sold through OEMs and 
distribution channels to ISPs, enterprises, medium and small 
businesses and consumers.  (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The semiconductor sector has always tended to be a leader for the 
Nasdaq both into and out of bull and bear markets.  It looks like 
the recent consolidation over the last two weeks coupled with the 
last three days of positive gains has the SOX poised for a 
breakout to the upside.  Underpinning our bullish perspective is 
the third month in a row of improved semiconductor billings.  We 
looked at several chip stocks and many of them had returned to 
last week's highs but one of them appeared to be leading the way.  
ADPT is showing very strong buy signals on relative strength 
charts against the SOX and the SPX.  If the SOX can power through 
the 490 to 500 area then ADPT should be able to make sizeable 
gains.  We also like ADPT for the strong technical breakout that 
occurred on Oct. 25th.  The $12 level had been a lid on the stock 
for months and ADPT burst through and confirmed with a second 
positive day.  Since then the tech sector has retraced some gains 
but ADPT held the $12 level and appears poised for the next leg 
up.  Any dip to $12.00 or $12.50 should be buyable but we don't 
expect this to occur unless the Nasdaq or SOX is down 
significantly on Monday.  If you prefer, look for shares to trade 
above $13 as a potential entry.  We're going to start the play 
with a stop at 11.80.  This is a little more heat than we like to 
trade with, about 7.8%, but the potential reward is worth it.  We 
picked 11.80 because the Thursday low was 11.85 which was also 
the 10-dma.  Now the 10-dma is resting at $12 which will 
strengthen the price support already there.  The long-term 
bullish price objective for ADPT is north of $20 but our short-
term target is $15.00, or 16%. You can look back to last January 
to see resistance at 15.25 and we're planning to exit just 
beforehand.  As with any tech play, you may want to wait until 
after the CSCO earnings announcement on Monday.  CSCO isn't a 
chip stock but it is seen as such a pillar of the technology 
sector that positive or negative comments from their conference 
call could (and probably will) direct the Nasdaq's short-term 
trend.

Picked on November 2nd at $12.86
Gain since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date              10/18 (confirmed)




---

VERITAS Software - VRTS - close: 30.96 change: -0.52 stop: 27.75

Company Description:
VERITAS Software Corporation provides essential storage software 
solutions that enable customers to protect and access their 
business-critical data. The company, which was added to the 
Nasdaq-100 Index in January 1999 and to the S&P 500 Index in 
March 2000, has more than 5,500 employees in 103 offices 
worldwide, and is ranked among the world's top 10 software 
companies based on revenue and market capitalization. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
It's back and this time we won't leave the money on the table.  
Last week we added VRTS as a bullish play and the very next day 
the stock added 10.5%.  We expected a pullback but the markets 
handed us a three-day losing streak that quickly stopped us out.  
Now that is looks like the profit taking is (temporarily) over 
we're ready for the next move up.  The software sector has been a 
bit of a laggard when compared to the semiconductors or the 
biotechs.  A large part of this is directly contributed to MSFT 
and investor uncertainty over the antitrust case.  Now that MSFT 
and the U.S. Justice department have kissed and made up the 
software giant (some Silicon Valley CEOs would prefer the term 
bully) has been released from detention.  Why all this talk about 
MSFT and if we think MSFT is going to go up why don't we play it?  
Good question.  MSFT will be a leader in the software group for 
better or for worse and we need to see it breakout above its 200-
dma soon.  Once this occurs we want to play VRTS because it 
should produce bigger percentage gains than Mr. Softee.  However, 
before you decide to pull the trigger consider waiting until the 
market hears from CSCO.  CSCO isn't a software stock but they do 
announce earnings on Monday.  Its position as a technology leader 
will directly influence the short-term trend in the Nasdaq.  
Everyone will be listening to their conference call for 
optimistic (or pessimistic) comments about the next few quarters.  
Traders should look for a potential pullback in VRTS to $29.00 or 
$30.00.  Below $29.00 we would be too concerned that the stock 
was breaking down below its short-term trend.  If you prefer to 
see confirmation, look for VRTS to close above $31.  We're going 
to start the play with a stop at 27.75.  This is just below the 
late Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday lows.  Our first target is 
$35.00.  We will be quick to adjust stops but volatility in VRTS 
can make it a challenge.

Picked on October 22nd at $30.96
Gain since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date              10/16 (confirmed)




---

Lam Research - LRCX - close: 21.34 change: +0.67 stop: 18.80

Company Description:
Lam Research Corporation is a leading supplier of wafer 
fabrication equipment and services to the world's semiconductor 
industry. Lam's common stock trades on the Nasdaq National Market 
under the symbol LRCX. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:

The semiconductor sector has always tended to be a leader for the 
Nasdaq both into and out of bull and bear markets.  It looks like 
the recent consolidation over the last two weeks coupled with the 
last three days of positive gains has the SOX poised for a 
breakout to the upside.  Underpinning our bullish perspective is 
the third month in a row of improved semiconductor billings.  If 
you recently read our ADPT play write up you're probably thinking 
those first few sentences sound familiar.  You're right.  They 
are exactly the same.  Our play in LRCX is based on the same 
expectation that the SOX will lead the Nasdaq higher if we don't 
get torpedoed by CSCO's earnings announcement first (they 
announce on Monday and no, CSCO is not a chip stock).  We like 
LRCX for its late day strength and its new higher high.  Looking 
at the chart one can easily see the trading channel that LRCX has 
been climbing since mid-September.  If you do see it then you 
should be thinking "why are they willing to buy it here, near the 
top of the channel?"  Longer-term bulls should be more patient 
and try to buy LRCX at the bottom of the channel which is clear 
down at $18.00.  In essence we are speculating that LRCX will 
breakout through the top of the channel.  This is a very short-
term trade where we are looking for the stock to rise toward its 
200-dma at $25.  Our enthusiasm is supported by LRCX closing at 
the high for the day while also closing above its 50-dma.  
Readers should correctly note that this is play carries more risk 
than the ADPT selection for two reasons.  No. 1, LRCX has 
immediate resistance at $22.50.  Obviously we expect the stock to 
trade through it but shares could stall at that level.  No. 2, 
Support for LRCX is strongest near $18.  We're going to start the 
play with a stop at 18.80, which is just below the Thursday low.  
More conservative traders that choose LRCX over ADPT might want 
to consider a stop just under $20 which should offer some amount 
of round number price support.  Fortunately, the longer-term 
bullish price objective for LRCX is $29.00.  We will be quick to 
adjust stops higher but confirm stock direction and sector 
direction before initiating new positions.

Picked on November 2nd at $21.34
Gain since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date              10/09 (confirmed)




---

Numerical Tech. - NMTC - close: 25.44 change: 1.13 stop: 23.25

Company Description:
Numerical Technologies, Inc., ranked as one of the 100 fastest 
growing technology companies by Forbes ASAP, number six on 
Deloitte & Touche's 50 fastest growing companies in Silicon 
Valley, and the number one best small electronics company in 
Electronic Business, develops and markets proprietary technology, 
software tools and services that enable the semiconductor 
industry to produce subwavelength integrated circuits, i.e., 
integrated circuits with components smaller than the wavelength 
of light used to create circuit patterns on silicon. Numerical's 
products and industry alliances form a comprehensive design-to-
silicon solution that enables the creation of smaller, faster and 
more power-efficient semiconductors using available manufacturing 
equipment. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We like NMTC because it allows us to play two sectors at once - 
the semiconductor sector and the software sector.  The stock has 
been pretty strong over the last 2.5 weeks while the broader 
markets have been rather volatile.  You can see on a daily chart 
where NMTC's positive earnings announcement on the 10th of 
October helped power the share price above the 200-dma.  There 
was some consolidation but the stock quickly traded higher.  The 
$22 level has been very strong support but the lows have been 
climbing higher and we're going to start the play with our stop a 
dime under Thursday's low.  It's pretty easy to see how the $25 
level has been resistance since the 29th of October but Friday's 
session broke this level, absorbed some of the selling pressure 
there and closed strong again.  Our target is $29.00.  Traders 
can look for dips if the broader market is down on Monday and a 
good play for bounces would be $24.00, $24.50 or $25.00.  We'll 
be quick to raise our stop once the stock confirms the new trend 
above $25.

Picked on November 2nd at $25.44
Gain since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date              10/10 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Honeywell Intl - HON - close: 31.15 change: +0.70 stop: 28.50

Company Description
Honeywell is a US$25-billion diversified technology and 
manufacturing leader, serving customers worldwide with aerospace 
products and services; control technologies for buildings, homes 
and industry; automotive products; power generation systems; 
specialty chemicals; fibers; plastics; and electronic and 
advanced materials. Honeywell employs approximately 120,000 
people in 95 countries. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Nothing like a global, big-cap, conglomerate-style blue chip to 
round out the old portfolio.  HON has been making a comeback from 
its mid-September lows but the move has been slow and steady.  
Which is exactly why we're choosing HON to add to the list.  Now 
that the GE merger deal is dead the stock should be less volatile 
and free to enjoy any advance the Dow Jones can make over the 
next few weeks.  The next few weeks is the sort of time frame 
we're looking at.  The stock has consolidated nicely and Friday's 
session put shares back above the $31 in addition to claiming the 
50-dma.  The MACD is about to cross the zero line the stock looks 
ready for the next bullish leg up.  The point-and-figure chart 
has already produced a buy signal with price resistance at $35 
and the descending bearish resistance line all the way up at $41.  
We wouldn't mind a dip back to $30 as a potential entry but $31 
suits us fine.  Our first target is $35 with resistance beyond 
that at $37.50 and $39.00.  A day or two of confirmation that HON 
can hold the $30 level and we'll adjust our stop higher.  
However, we begin the play with a wide stop at 28.50.  More 
conservative traders may want to consider $29.00 or even $30 but 
the latter feels too close for comfort.

Picked on November 2nd at $31.15
Gain since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date              10/24 (confirmed)





  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Amerada Hess - AHC - close: 58.36 change: -1.30 stop: 60.75

Company Description
Amerada Hess, headquartered in New York, is a global integrated 
energy company engaged in the exploration for and the production, 
purchase, transportation and sale of crude oil and natural gas, 
as well as the production and sale of refined petroleum products. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
One sector the markets have not been buying is the oil sector.  
The CBOE Oil Index (OIX.X) topped out in mid-October and has been 
building a bearish wedge pattern ever since.  Friday the OIX fell 
perilously close to support at 292.  A break below this level 
could lead to further consolidation down near 280.  AHC, which is 
a component of the OIX, has been a bearish leader for the group.  
Shares tumbled heavily the first part of last week with 
Wednesday's session closing below major support of $59.  The 
stock attempted a rally on Thursday with limited success but 
could not reclaim the $60 level.  Fundamentally, the company 
hasn't given investors much reason to buy the stock.  Their 
recent earnings announcement reported a 35% drop in earnings 
fueled by weaker oil and gas prices and lower margins.  AHC 
really looks like a strong short at this level but traders should 
take notice that last year, back in November and December, the 
stock hit support at $58 multiple times and couldn't break it.  
Hopefully this time the bears will be able to follow through.  
The point-and-figure chart shows the stock on a new sell signal 
while trying to fulfill its bearish price objective of $40.  Our 
first target is $50 and we'll start the play with a stop at 
60.75.  More conservative players might be able to get by with a 
stop closer to $60 but you risk getting swung out on an intraday 
spike.  Even more conservative players should consider waiting 
until the stock actually closes under the $58 level.

Picked on November 2nd at $58.36
Gain since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date              10/23 (confirmed)




---

Pharmaceutical Product Development Inc. - PPDI -
close: 26.00 change: -0.79 stop: 27.75

Company Description
As a leading global provider of discovery and development 
services and products for pharmaceutical and biotechnology 
companies, PPD applies innovative technologies, therapeutic 
expertise and a commitment to quality to help clients maximize 
the return on their R&D investments. With proven early discovery 
through post-market resources, the company also offers unique 
partnerships and alliances for virtual drug development. PPD has 
more than 4,300 professionals in 20 countries around the world. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Unfortunately for shareholders, PPDI was already breaking down 
before the September 11th attacks.  Looking at a yearly chart of 
PPDI, one can see that the stock appeared to top out near $35 to 
$37.50 over the summer months while bulls supported it at $30.  
Once shares broke down below the $30 mark they quickly fell to 
new support at $20.  This down turn was partly affected by the 
Sept. 11th inspired drop in the markets but PPDI was already in a 
bearish trend.  The market wide rebound helped propel PPDI back 
to the $30 level but previous support was now tough resistance.  
The stock was able to burst above this level in a short-lived 
earnings run but after the announcement the stock quickly fell 
below the 200-dma again.  Now after two weeks of trying to 
maintain support at 26.50 bears appear to have taken control and 
have scored a first down.  We've been discussing the negative 
trend in the drug index for days and the rally in the sector on 
Thursday had no affect on shares of PPDI.  When given the chance 
on Friday, PPDI quickly slipped lower.  The close below $26.50 
was a key breakdown and our initial target bearish target is $20.  
If circumstances permit a secondary target of $17 is possible.  
Glancing at the point-and-figure chart shows a frightfully low 
bearish price objective (much lower than our targets) and we're 
going to wait until Monday to confirm it with Mr. Bailey.  We are 
going to start the play with a stop at 27.75 which is a nickel 
above the Thursday high.  

Picked on November 2nd at $26.00
Gain since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date              10/16 (confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  -----------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  -----------------

Bemis Co. - BMS - close: 44.41 change: +0.02 stop: 42.10

If you only looked at the numbers on Friday, the major moving 
averages could appear rather boring.  The sideways trading in the 
broader averages led BMS to follow suit.  We were encouraged by 
the nice bounce on strong volume in Thursday's session.  However, 
now we have a strong volume day and the stock didn't move 
anywhere.  Call us a little gun shy but we need to see BMS make a 
move soon and the doji candlestick on Friday could be interpreted 
negatively.  The more it trades sideways the more exhausted the 
stock looks and could have short-term bulls bailing for greener 
pastures.  We would approach new long positions in BMS from two 
different entry points.  A trader could wait for another dip back 
to the $43 level but one should probably look for the bounce up 
to begin again.  Using our stop would reduce your exposure with a 
buy the dip entry.  Another entry point would be to wait for 
shares to trade back above $45 or $45.50 potentially waiting for 
the stock to close above these levels.  

Picked on October 26th at $44.99
Gain since picked:         -0.58
Earnings Date              10/23 (confirmed)




---

Clorox Co. - CLX - close: 38.01 change: +0.53 stop: 36.25 *new*

The last couple of days have seen big-cap consumables produce 
strong gains.  CLX is one of them but K, G, CL, PG and GIS have 
all been producing gains as well.  The recent trend on CLX looks 
very positive.  We encourage weekend readers to check out the 
Thursday play write up on CLX as Friday's action was merely a 
confirmation of the breakout.  Bullish traders should be 
encouraged by the second day of strong volume.  Thursday's was an 
extremely high 4 million shares versus the average of 750 
thousand but Friday's volume was also impressive with 2.77 
million shares trading.  It does appear that there are some big 
investors rotating into this equity.  The intraday chart on 
Friday is also encouraging for short-term bulls.  If you were 
looking for an entry there was a dip to $37.25 before the stock 
began a strong up trend that lasted throughout the day.  We find 
it interesting that demand was able to absorb the supply at 
$37.75, $37.85 and again at $37.95 (you can check it out on a 
five minute chart).  The close at the high for the day is also 
bullish for Monday morning.  As long as the Dow Jones doesn't 
produce any significant losses on Monday, CLX looks poised to 
trade higher. One thing that may deter some traders about CLX is  
the velocity of its potential rally.  What do we mean by that?  
The stock is not a very "fast" mover.  Yes, we have a new bullish 
trend but we're not expecting more than two or three dollars 
without significant resistance and time to digest the gains.  Yet 
for some of us this is exactly the kind of trade we're looking 
for.  We're going to move our stop up to $36.25 but more 
conservative traders can probably get buy with a stop just under 
$37.  Confirm stock direction on Monday.

Picked on November 1st at $37.48
Gain since picked:         +0.53
Earnings Date              11/01 (confirmed)





  -----------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  -----------------

Bristol Myers Squibb - BMY - cls: 53.04 chg: -1.22 stop: 54.60 *new*

Readers know from Thursday's update that the Drug Index (DRG.X) 
rallied strongly (on Thursday) after several days of small 
losses.  The DRG rose right up to its 200-dma but did not break 
it.  We were anticipating a potential follow through in the 
sector (and BMY) if the index could trade above the 200-dma.  
Fortunately for the bears the lackluster trading on Friday in the 
broader averages left no fuel for pharmaceutical bulls to break 
through this level of resistance.  Now we have a strong set up 
for a failed rally in the drug sector.  Previously we had planned 
to cover the BMY short for a profit at $51.00.  The pattern 
developing in the group in addition to BMY's weakness in Friday's 
trading has us considering the possibility of a sub-$50 share 
price.  We will be somewhat conservative and tighten stops 
whenever feasible to protect current gains.  At the moment the 
newsletter is up about 8.5% in BMY while the new stop at 54.60 
should ensure a gain of almost 6%.  Don't let our shift in 
strategy deter you from your own game plan.  If you plan to cover 
at $51.00 or $50.00 then do so.  Some traders will cover half 
their position and leave the other half open.  The important goal 
is to follow your own trading discipline.  Our new stop is right 
at the Thursday high (and coincidentally Thursday's 5-dma). 

Picked on October 23rd at $58.02
Gain since picked:         +4.98
Earnings Date              10/23 (confirmed)




---

Dime Bancorp Inc - DME - close: 32.90 change: +0.21 stop: 34.05 *new*

DME is a new bearish play from Thursday's newsletter.  The stock 
gave shareholders a very strong bounce after Thursday morning's 
key technical breakdown but we suspected it would not last.  The 
up trend continued into Friday morning before sellers began to 
lean on the stock about 11:30 a.m.  At that point it looks like 
investors were selling into strength as the afternoon hours 
produced a steady descent.  We had anticipated that DME might 
rally back to previous support near 33.70 before rolling over but 
it appears the low on October 18th was good enough to act as 
resistance.  If the broader market rallies on Monday we could see 
DME trade higher but we would still expect the stock to feel 
selling pressure from $33.50 to $33.70.  We are going to lower 
our stop by 40 cents to $34.05.  Don't forget that $31 is the 
level to watch for support.  Confirm stock direction before 
initiating new positions.

Picked on November 1st at $32.69
Gain since picked:         -0.21
Earnings Date              10/15 (confirmed)




---

Manor Care - HCR - close: 21.95 change: -1.08 stop: 23.40 *new*

The healthcare sector is trading in a very similar pattern to the 
drug sector.  Both rallied right up to their 200-dma on Thursday 
and both failed to trade above this key resistance on Friday.  
With two historically defensive sectors poised to rollover our 
suspicions that money is rotating out of these groups could be 
confirmed shortly.  The good news is our bearish pick, HCR, is 
leading the way lower.  Friday's session found the stock losing 
another 4.68% by the close.  This puts the newsletter's gain in 
the short-play at 9.4% or 2.28 points.  Some of you maybe 
wondering if its too late to go bearish on HCR.  We don't think 
so.  $22.50 was a key support level that fell to strong selling 
in Friday's session.  The loss came on very strong volume of 1.1 
million shares versus the average of 681 thousand shares.  A 
closer look at the intraday charts show there was heavy selling 
pressure at 23.30 and 23.25.  Could HCR bounce on Monday?  
Absolutely, but we would expect 22.50 to act as new resistance 
and $23.00 will also act as resistance.  We are lowering our stop 
to 23.40 but more conservative traders could use the 22.50 or 
23.00 as potential stops.  The next level of support should be 
$20.  However, if the healthcare does see a serious pullback HCR 
may aim for its bearish price objective of $16.00.

Picked on October 26th at $24.23
Gain since picked:         +2.28
Earnings Date              10/26 (confirmed)






===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  -----------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Home Depot Inc - HD - close: 40.32 change: +1.92 stop: 39.25

This dismal unemployment report Friday morning reconfirmed hope 
that the Fed would cut rates in its upcoming meeting.  Rate cuts 
always tend to have a positive affect on retail stocks as 
consumers are expected to borrow more and spend more.  The 
implications were not lost on Home Depot and the stock rallied 
strongly which quickly traded through our stop.  Shares traded up 
to their 50-dma before falling back to rest near $40.  

Picked on October 30th at $37.60
Gain since picked:         -1.65
Earnings Date              11/14 (not confirmed)




---

St Paul Co. - SPC - close: 48.90 change: +0.89 stop: 48.25

There was no surprise when SPC traded through our stop before 
11:00 a.m. on Friday morning.  The insurance sector was still in 
short-term rally mode and SPC was more than happy to follow the 
leader.  Longer-term, shares of SPC need to close above both $50 
and $52 before the stock can begin to make any rewarding gains 
and we're skeptical this market will allow that to happen.  The 
sector (IUX) would need to trade above 730 before a new bullish 
trend could develop.  Keep your eyes on the index for a sign of 
sector strength.

Picked on October 31st at $45.90
Gain since picked:         -2.35
Earnings Date              10/23 (confirmed)





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Homestake Mining Co. - HM - close: 8.37 change: +0.22 stop: 7.95

Company Description
Homestake Mining Company is an international gold mining company 
with operations and exploration activities in the United States, 
Canada, Australia and Chile. The Company also has active 
development and exploration programs in Argentina. (source: 
company press release)

Why We Like It:
Based on the observations and speculation Mr. Bailey discussed in 
this weekend's wrap we're going to put a play on to try and 
capitalize on any move in the gold stocks.  We chose Homestake 
Mining for two reasons.  No. 1, even though the company is 
merging with Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:ABX) in December, HM has out 
performed both ABX and the XAU.X over the last few months.  If 
the Gold Index (XAU.X) and ABX, which trades in close tandem to 
the sector, both rise over the next few weeks we expect the move 
to be magnified in HM.  No. 2, jumping into HM here near price 
support of $8 can really limit our exposure versus some of the 
risk levels we see in other stocks.  HM has been consolidating 
throughout much of October but the $8 support level has been very 
strong for the past four weeks.  It has only been violated once, 
on Oct. 31st, and the low was 7.97.  We're going to start our 
play with a stop at 7.95, which limits our risk to less than 45 
cents.  Our target is 9.50 to 10.00.  Some traders may want to 
wait for shares of HM to close over $8.50 as confirmation the 
rebound has begun.

Picked on November 2nd at $ 8.37
Gain since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date              10/31 (confirmed)




---

Hutchinson Tech. - HTCH - close: 19.55 change: +0.45 stop: 17.95

Company Description
Hutchinson Technology is the leading worldwide supplier of 
suspension assemblies for disk drives.  (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It:
Why we like it...hmmm...let me think.  I don't.  The stock's been 
stuck in a trading range between $18.00 and $20.00 since early 
August.  The terrorist influenced market slide mid-September 
artificially pushed prices down but they quickly recovered - 
right back to the same trading range.  If you want to trade the 
range from $18 to $20 then great.  That's not a bad strategy.  
You could make money going both ways but some of us don't have 
that kind of patience.  Fundamentally the sector has really seen 
hard times and HTCH recently announced further cost reductions.  
The only good thing I can say about the stock is its MACD is 
about to produce a bullish crossover.  If you ever wondered what 
a "stage one" basing pattern looked like then HTCH would be a 
good example.  Now, enough griping on my part.  We're adding HTCH 
to our high-risk section because of some of the observations Mr. 
Bailey discussed in this weekend's wrap.  However, traders can 
severely limit their risk by waiting for the stock to actually 
produce a buy signal they would want to trade.  We are not going 
to officially "enter" this play until HTCH trades to $20.10.  
That means if shares tick from 20.09 to 20.10 and then crash, 
we're in and we suffer the loss.  However, the moment it closes 
we would probably adjust our stop from our current suggested 
level.  Be patient and wait for that signal unless you want to 
trade the swings.  Be aware that the company is going to announce 
earnings on November 6th (Tuesday).  FYI, initial upside target 
is $22.50, then $25.00.  Fortunately for the bulls the point-and-
figure chart is showing a break above the bearish resistance line 
but we still need to see $20.

Picked on November XXX at $20.10 -- waiting to be triggered
Gain since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date              11/06 (confirmed)






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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 11-02-2001
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/164_3.asp
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of November 5th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      

=================================================================


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of October 22nd
==================================================

  ------------------------
  Major Earnings This Week
  ------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est   

------------------------ MONDAY ------------------------

ADVP    AdvancePCS            Mon, Nov 5  After the Bell    0.59
ILA     Aquila, Inc.          Mon, Nov 5  Before the Bell   0.37
BDAL    Bruker Daltonics, Inc.Mon, Nov 5  Before the Bell   0.01
EMS     C-MAC Industries      Mon, Nov 5  -----N/A-----     0.12
CEPH    Cephalon              Mon, Nov 5  After the Bell    0.06
CSCO    Cisco Systems         Mon, Nov 5  After the Bell    0.02
DVA     DaVita                Mon, Nov 5  -----N/A-----     0.26
DDS     Dillard`s             Mon, Nov 5  Before the Bell  -0.39
FHCC    First Health Group    Mon, Nov 5  Before the Bell   0.25
KCIN    KPMG Consulting       Mon, Nov 5  After the Bell    0.12
PCG     PG&E                  Mon, Nov 5  Before the Bell   0.78
PPS     Post Properties       Mon, Nov 5  After the Bell    0.87
RA      Reckson Ass. Realty   Mon, Nov 5  After the Bell    0.66
RSE     Rouse                 Mon, Nov 5  -----N/A-----     0.86
RYAAY   Ryanair Holdings      Mon, Nov 5  Before the Bell   0.83
SGY     Stone Energy          Mon, Nov 5  After the Bell    0.43
TLM     Talisman Energy       Mon, Nov 5  -----N/A-----     0.69
TNE     Tele No. Leste Part.  Mon, Nov 5  After the Bell   -0.08
TWTC    Time Warner Telecom   Mon, Nov 5  -----N/A-----    -0.31
TMPW    TMP Worldwide         Mon, Nov 5  After the Bell    0.34
TPC     Triton PCS Holdings   Mon, Nov 5  After the Bell     N/A
VSH     Vishay Intertech.     Mon, Nov 5  Before the Bell   0.08

------------------------ TUESDAY ------------------------

ALO     Alpharma              Tue, Nov 6  After the Bell    0.34
ALS     Alstom SA             Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell    N/A
DOX     Amdocs Limited        Tue, Nov 6  After the Bell    0.34
AMT     American Tower        Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell  -0.48
AMH     AmerUs Group          Tue, Nov 6  After the Bell    0.76
AVE     Aventis               Tue, Nov 6  -----N/A-----      N/A
BHP     BHP Billiton Ltd      Tue, Nov 6  After the Bell    0.18
BJS     BJ Services           Tue, Nov 6  During the Market 0.60
BP      BP Amoco              Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell   0.78
BAB     British Airways       Tue, Nov 6  -----N/A-----      N/A
GIB     CGI Group             Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell    N/A
CCI     Crown Castle Inter.   Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell  -0.45
DOL     Dole Food             Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell   0.08
EMR     Emerson Electric      Tue, Nov 6  -----N/A-----     0.59
EOC     Empresa Nacional      Tue, Nov 6  -----N/A-----     0.09
ENI     Enersis SA ADS        Tue, Nov 6  -----N/A-----     0.01
GEMP    Gemplus Inter.        Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell  -0.03
HSIC    Henry Schein          Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell   0.54
ICCI    Insight Comm.         Tue, Nov 6  -----N/A-----    -0.37
IGT     Inter. Gaming Tech.   Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell   0.71
LAMR    Lamar Advertising     Tue, Nov 6  After the Bell   -0.29
MXIM    Maxim Int. Products   Tue, Nov 6  After the Bell    0.16
MCCC    Mediacom              Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell  -0.55
MET     Metro. Life Ins.      Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell   0.29
MSM     MSC Industrial Direct Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell   0.13
NVO     Novo-Nordisk          Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell    N/A
OHP     Oxford Health Plans   Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell   0.80
PRE     PartnerRe             Tue, Nov 6  After the Bell   -6.09
RL      Polo Ralph Lauren     Tue, Nov 6  After the Bell    0.51
QCOM    Qualcomm              Tue, Nov 6  -----N/A-----     0.25
COL     Rockwell Collins, Inc.Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell   0.43
SCZ     Security Capital Grp. Tue, Nov 6  After the Bell    0.64
SRV     Service Corp. Int.    Tue, Nov 6  After the Bell    0.02
SRP     Sierra Pacific Res.   Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell   0.85
TEM     Telefonica Moviles    Tue, Nov 6  Before the Bell   0.05
UVN     Univision Comm.       Tue, Nov 6  After the Bell    0.06
UNM     UNUMProvident         Tue, Nov 6  After the Bell    0.57

------------------------ WEDNESDAY ------------------------

AET     Aetna                 Wed, Nov 7  Before the Bell  -0.55
AW      Allied Waste Ind.     Wed, Nov 7  After the Bell    0.15
AOC     AON Corporation       Wed, Nov 7  -----N/A-----     0.41
BDX     Becton Dickinson      Wed, Nov 7  After the Bell    0.49
VNT     C. A. Nacional Tele.  Wed, Nov 7  -----N/A-----     0.21
CLU     Canada Life Financial Wed, Nov 7  -----N/A-----     0.31
CED     Canadian Natural Res. Wed, Nov 7  -----N/A-----      N/A
CCU     Clear Channel Comm.   Wed, Nov 7  After the Bell   -0.35
ELE     Endesa, S.A.          Wed, Nov 7  During the Market  N/A
EVC     Entravis. Comm. Corp. Wed, Nov 7  After the Bell   -0.15
EXPD    Expeditors Int. WA    Wed, Nov 7  Before the Bell   0.49
FOX     Fox Entertainment     Wed, Nov 7  Before the Bell   0.01
GVA     Granite Construction  Wed, Nov 7  After the Bell    0.53
HC      Hanover Compressor    Wed, Nov 7  -----N/A-----     0.36
MGA     Magna International   Wed, Nov 7  -----N/A-----     0.96
MYGN    Myriad Genetics       Wed, Nov 7  -----N/A-----    -0.11
NBG     National Bank of Gr.  Wed, Nov 7  Before the Bell    N/A
NWS     News Corporation      Wed, Nov 7  Before the Bell   0.13
PIXR    Pixar                 Wed, Nov 7  After the Bell    0.10
PFG     Principal Fin. Grp    Wed, Nov 7  Before the Bell    N/A
ROK     Rockwell Automation   Wed, Nov 7  -----N/A-----     0.06
SPI     Scottish Power        Wed, Nov 7  Before the Bell    N/A
SMTC    Semtech               Wed, Nov 7  After the Bell    0.09
SHPGY   Shire Pharm. Group    Wed, Nov 7  Before the Bell   0.34
PKS     Six Flags, Inc.       Wed, Nov 7  After the Bell    1.47
SZA     Suiza Foods           Wed, Nov 7  Before the Bell   1.10
UCU     UtiliCorp United      Wed, Nov 7  Before the Bell   0.53
VPI     Vintage Petroleum     Wed, Nov 7  After the Bell    0.41
WMI     Waste Management      Wed, Nov 7  Before the Bell   0.37
WWCA    Western Wireless      Wed, Nov 7  After the Bell   -0.21

------------------------ THURSDAY ------------------------

AEG     AEGON N.V.            Thu, Nov 8  -----N/A-----     0.40
AC      Alliance Capital Man. Thu, Nov 8  -----N/A-----     0.68
ABC     AmeriSourceBergen     Thu, Nov 8  Before the Bell    N/A
AIV     Apartment Inv. & Man. Thu, Nov 8  -----N/A-----     1.31
ASN     Archstone Communities Thu, Nov 8  Before the Bell   0.54
BNN     Brascan Corporation   Thu, Nov 8  -----N/A-----      N/A
BTY     British Tele. PLC     Thu, Nov 8  -----N/A-----      N/A
CPT     Camden Property Trust Thu, Nov 8  After the Bell    0.95
SRW     Charles Smith Res. Re.Thu, Nov 8  Before the Bell   1.04
CEI     Cres. Rl Estate Eq.   Thu, Nov 8  Before the Bell   0.51
ENZN    Enzon                 Thu, Nov 8  Before the Bell   0.11
FST     Forest Oil            Thu, Nov 8  Before the Bell   0.42
FS      Four Seasons Hotels   Thu, Nov 8  After the Bell    0.52
HCC     HCC Insurance Hold    Thu, Nov 8  After the Bell    0.01
HIW     Highwoods Properties  Thu, Nov 8  After the Bell    0.95
CLI     Mack Cali Realty      Thu, Nov 8  -----N/A-----     0.91
MNY     MONY Group            Thu, Nov 8  Before the Bell  -0.14
NAB     National Aust. Bank   Thu, Nov 8  -----N/A-----      N/A
NXL     NewPlan Excel Rl Trst Thu, Nov 8  -----N/A-----     0.46
NPSP    NPS Pharmacutical     Thu, Nov 8  After the Bell   -0.65
NVDA    NVIDIA                Thu, Nov 8  After the Bell    0.23
RSA     Roy. & Sun All. Ins.  Thu, Nov 8  Before the Bell    N/A
SHR     SCHERING A G          Thu, Nov 8  -----N/A-----      N/A
SPG     Simon Property Group  Thu, Nov 8  Before the Bell   0.87
TM      Toyota Motor          Thu, Nov 8  -----N/A-----      N/A
UNWR    US Unwired            Thu, Nov 8  After the Bell   -0.30
WGR     Western Gas Resources Thu, Nov 8  Before the Bell   0.32

------------------------ FRIDAY ------------------------

FUN     Cedar Fair LP         Fri, Nov 9  -----N/A-----     1.98
ETM     Entercom Comm.        Fri, Nov 9  Before the Bell   0.13
HNT     Health Net, Inc.      Fri, Nov 9  Before the Bell   0.42


  -------------------------------
  Upcoming Stock Splits This Week
  -------------------------------

Upcoming Stock Splits This Week...

Symbol  Company Name          Splits  Payable    Executable
  
KOSS    Koss Corp             2:1     11/05      11/06



  --------------------------
  Economic Reports This Week
  --------------------------

As we start to wrap up the major earnings announcement for the
3Q investors will still be looking for guidance going forward
but the Fed meeting on Thursday and the PPI report on Friday
will be the major economic events/reports to watch.  There is
a strong expectation that Alan Greenspan and the FOMC will 
cut rates again.  The question is by how much?



Monday, 11/05/01
----------------
NAPM Services          Oct  Forecast:  47.0%  Previous:  50.2%


Tuesday, 11/06/01
-----------------
FOMC Meeting


Wednesday, 11/07/01
-------------------
Productivity-Prel      Q3   Forecast:  -1.2%  Previous:   2.1%
Wholesale Inventories  Sep  Forecast:  -0.3%  Previous:  -0.1%
Consumer Credit        Sep  Forecast:  $0.5B  Previous:  $2.3B


Thursday, 11/08/01
------------------
Initial Claims       11/03  Forecast:   N/A   Previous:   499K
Export Prices ex-ag.   Oct  Forecast:   N/A   Previous:   0.2%
Import Prices ex-oil.  Jul  Forecast:   N/A   Previous:   0.0%


Friday, 11/09/01
----------------
PPI                    Oct  Forecast:  -0.3%  Previous:   0.4%
Core PPI               Oct  Forecast:  -0.1%  Previous:   0.3%
Mich Sentiment-Prel.   Nov  Forecast:   80.5  Previous:   82.7




==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AMD     Advanced Micro Devices     12.25     +0.75
VGR     Vector Group               41.96     +1.21
ZLC     Zale Corp                  29.80     +0.75
ORBK    Orbotech Ltd               23.76     +1.94
ABFS    Arkansas Best Corp         24.37     +0.60

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

JDEC    J.D. Edwards & Co           9.37     +1.84
FILE    Filenet Corp               16.80     +1.78
ILMN    Illumina Inc               11.29     +1.19
ARRY    Array Biopharma Inc        12.00     +1.10
HERBB   Herbalife Intl             12.35     +1.05

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UN      Unilever N.V.              54.06     +1.81
XL      Xl Capital Ltd             92.80     +3.25
GIS     General Mills              48.96     +1.96
CDN     Cadence Design Systems     23.63     +1.03
VAR     Varian Medical Systems     69.71     +2.41

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ETR     Entergy Corp               36.60     -1.60
EL      Estee Lauder Cos Inc       31.55     -1.61
RDY     Dr Reddys Lab              21.85     -2.26
PPP     Pogo Producing Co          24.95     -2.11
DORL    Doral Financial Corp       31.85     -1.16





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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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