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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 11/16/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-16-2001
                                                    section 1 of 3
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In section one:

Market Wrap:     Bull's diet was airline stocks high in fiber
Play-of-the-Day: 20% EBITDA Growth Sparks Move
Watch List: ISSX, PLMD, EXTR, AFFX, ANDW, DT, ARBA, CELG, GNTA,
            TEVA, INTU, FLM, BJ, SEE, EMLX, QLGC
Market Sentiment: Markets stall

------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
------------------------------------------------------------------
       WE 11-16         WE 11-11         WE 11-02         WE 10-26
DOW     9866.99 +258.99  9608.00 +284.46  9323.54 -221.63  +341.06
Nasdaq  1898.58 + 70.10  1828.48 + 82.75  1745.73 - 23.23  + 97.65
S&P-100  588.07 + 10.08   577.99 + 18.00   559.99 -  7.99  + 14.18
S&P-500 1138.65 + 18.34  1120.31 + 33.11  1087.20 - 17.41  + 31.13
W5000  10486.67 +189.46 10297.21 +280.40 10016.81 -168.72  +290.64
RUT      451.31 + 13.21   438.10 +  5.03   433.07 -  5.58  + 12.95
TRAN    2497.37 +176.68  2320.69 + 74.03  2246.66 -   .92  + 73.30
VIX       27.17 -  1.59    28.76 -  3.64    32.40 +  1.87  -  5.31
VXN       55.04 -  3.55    58.59 -  2.60    61.19 +  4.28  - 12.37
TRIN       0.99             0.90             0.92             0.87
TICK       +750             +784             +701             +828
Put/Call    .50              .74              .70              .53
------------------------------------------------------------------
WE= week ended

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Bull's diet was airline stocks high in fiber

Bulls found broader market averages showing gains for the second 
week in a row.  Monday's tragic plane crash in New York had the 
week starting off with a dampened tone, but by weeks end, bulls 
dined on airline stocks as the Airline Index (XAL.X) was this 
week's sector standout posting a 17.4% gain, with 7.2% coming 
during today's trading session.  Helping bolster renewed 
bullishness in the group was word that Congress overwhelmingly 
approved a major reform of the aviation security system.  The 
bill would gradually put federal workers at the front lines of 
airport security where passengers and baggage are screened for 
possible terrorist threats.

A bulls diet wouldn't be complete without a shot of fiber.  Fiber 
Optic stocks (FOP.X) jumped 16.5% on the week.  On Friday, the 
FOP.X rose 3.25% and was one of the sector winners on the 
session. (MRVC NUFO TLAB GLW AVNX JDSU WCG LU PMCS ALA CORV FNSR 
ADCT AMCC VTSS NT JNPR CIEN NEWP CSCO TCM SCMR ONIS Q).

There's some overlap in the Fiber Optic stocks with that of the 
Networking Index (NWX.X) and it shows.  The Networking Index 
(NWX.X) rose 13.5% on the week, found gains by today's session 
end of 2.64%.

Last Friday, our sector review found the CBOE Internet Index 
(INX.X) surging 18.4%.  The momentum faded somewhat today as the 
INX.X gained just 1.05%, but still found itself in the top four 
sector winners for the week, gaining 10.7%.  Early last week, we 
added AOL Time Warner (NYSE:AOL) to our "High Risk/High Return" 
section bullish play list, but recent news that the 
Internet/media giant might be interested the broadband assets of 
AT&T (NYSE:T) had us raising a stop under the trade.  That stop 
was triggered today.  Subscribers got some gains out of AOL, but 
we opted to try and remove the uncertainty of a potential 
broadband acquisition from the portfolio.  That's not to say the 
deal might not be favorable, but near-term market reaction seemed 
to be negative.  Shares of AOL Time Warner finished down 1.73% to 
$36.90.

6-week closes for major averages and indexes




Energy stocks took it on the chin this week.  The Oil Service 
Index (OSX.X) fell 13.3% on the week, but the damage could have 
been worse had it not been for today's 3.78% gain.  Trader's felt 
today's action was most likely a good round of profit taking by 
sector bears as the December Crude oil future finished the week 
at $18.03/barrel, well below the now psychological level of 
$20/barrel.

Treasury bonds also found aggressive selling.  While the above 
list of market averages and indexes show YIELD jumping higher on 
the 10-year YIELD, that sharp jump in YIELD came at the expense 
of price.  On October 31, I wrote "They bought them like they 
were going out of style", this week "they sold them like they 
were out of style."  Today, the selling didn't stop as the 10-
year YIELD jumped higher still to a level not seen since 
September 6th.  This action takes the 10-year YIELD well above 
recent downward trend and gives equity bulls further thought that 
money may still be rotating toward stocks, or instruments that 
offer a more favorable return going forward. (We will set further 
test for this thought process below).

10-year Treasury YIELD Chart - 




Bond investors hit the "sell switch" this week as YIELD on the 
10-year shot higher.  It's beginning to look like the sharp move 
lower on October 31st was definitely a knee-jerk reaction where a 
short-term realization of limited supply had investors gobbling 
up bonds and driving YIELD lower.  This week's action had a HUGE 
unwinding taking place.  You can really see how there seemed to 
be some "group think" going on by traders yesterday.  When YIELD 
broke above the downward trend.  The selling momentum continued 
today.  From here on out, I think equity bulls want to see the 
10-year YIELD stay above the 4.62% level.  As unattractive as the 
bond market seemed to feel a YIELD lower than 4.5% was this week, 
an equity bull wants to see money stay away from treasuries going 
forward.  The cash recently generated from the selling of the 
bonds has now done one of two things.

Since we haven't seen a surge in stock prices the past two days, 
I have to be thinking that perhaps stocks shot higher off their 
late September lows either from massive short covering or a 
preemptive move on the expectations of a recovering economy.  
Perhaps the money spent on stocks the past 6-weeks is now being 
replenished with the sale proceeds from bonds.  In essence, 
stocks bought earlier are now being paid for from the sale of 
bonds.

In a way, this is good news for bulls, as it perhaps lessens the 
likelihood of a major pullback in stocks.  The market likes to 
keep money at work.  It doesn't like to just sit in cash, unless 
it believes there just isn't an opportunity at hand to make more 
money, through some type of investment vehicle.

But this is where our "inchworm" (see 11/14/01 01:30 EST Update) 
scenario comes in.  I think today's action hints very much of 
what we talked about in that update.  True, the broader market 
averages didn't show much gain in the past two sessions, but look 
what took place in the Dow Industrials today.  The inchworm 
moveth!

Hypothetical Dow Portfolio





16 up and 14 down is where we stand since the September 10th 
close.  In Thursday's wrap we measured the upper 15 stocks 
performance against the bottom 15.  On Thursday, both ends were 
moving higher.  Today however, we see something quite different.  
Today, the Dow Industrials internals moved very much like an 
inchworm.  The upper end pulled back $130 (from Thursday night's 
close) while the lower end gained $85.  An equity bull would most 
likely have wanted to see a more evenly distribution of gain/loss 
between both ends, the action today hints of profit taking at 
both end.  Bulls took profits from the upper end, and bears took 
profits at the lower end.  Eventually, one will "anchor" and the 
other will push.

I find it interesting that yesterday when the head was moving 
forward and gained $46.90, if you subtracted those gains from 
today's upper 15 losses, you end up with $83.79 ($130.69-
46.90=$83.79).  That $83.79 net change in the upper end between 
the past two sessions is similar to today's gains at the lower 
end.  Almost as if the inchworm was balancing himself out.

Finally!

On the 10-year YIELD Chart, I pointed to the April 10th date.  
That was the date that the 10-year YIELD broke clear of downward 
trend.  On Thursday, we saw similar action in the 10-year YIELD.  

Today marks the perfect time to discuss what to look for next 
week.  I still believe shares of General Electric (NYSE:GE) are 
most likely the "swing stock" for the Dow Industrials near-term.  
I don't think it is a coincidence that the stock is hovering at 
the #15 slot in our hypothetical Dow Industrials portfolio.

What we need to monitor now is what took place on April 10th in 
the bond market, along with General Electric (GE).  We've now 
seen the 10-year YIELD jerk higher the past two sessions, but GE 
is just sitting here.  Next week could be pivotal for our bullish 
play in GE as well as the Dow Industrials and perhaps the broader 
market averages as well.  Here's why.

General Electric Chart





General Electric is hanging in there and still above our pivot 
level of $40.  Monday morning's plane crash in New York and 
questions of GE's engine as a potential cause had sellers in the 
stock.  Bulls came to the rescue over the next couple of sessions 
and pushed the stock back above the pivot.  

On April 10th, GE pushed above similar horizontal resistance when 
the 10-year YIELD was unwinding higher at that time.  After three 
days of consolidation, shares of GE moved higher and eventually 
rallied to the upper end of our regressions channel.  Last weeks 
scenario of GE perhaps being the pivotal stock in the Dow 
Industrials is still in play.  We're also three days into a 
consolidation period.  Keep an eye on GE and if nothing else, 
follow it in our currently active play list.

There are only two reasons I can think of why GE would not move 
higher next week.  Either there's something wrong with GE right 
now, or the bulls just don't have the muscle or fortitude to 
believe were beginning an economic recovery.

This week, we'll be monitoring the "inchworm" for movement.  We 
should be monitoring our scenario for GE to be a swing stock in 
the Dow Industrials.

Thursday night, we added Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) as a bearish/short 
play in the "High Risk / Reward" section.  We wanted to try and 
take advantage of an "inside day" trade set up in the stock and 
INTC cooperated today.  We also are observing the NASDAQ-100 
bullish percent now at 75% bullish and getting closer still to 
April's level of 82% bullish.  Dorsey/Wright and Associates 
sector bullish percent data has the Semiconductor sector at 71% 
bullish, also very close to the April levels of 76% bullish for 
this sector.

Something an analyst told me years ago

Next week will be interesting.  When I first started in the 
investment business, one of the firms analysts told me that the 
best day to buy stocks for a short-term trade, was the day before 
the Thanksgiving holiday.  He said the best time to buy was 
between 12:00 EST and the market's close.

The idea is that just prior to a long weekend or split Holiday 
weekend like Thanksgiving, many of the senior trader's at the 
major brokerage firms split town on Wednesday at around lunch 
time and don't return until the following Monday.  Seniority has 
its privileges and the senior trader gets the 4-day weekend.

Most often he tells the more junior trader, "I'm out'a here, just 
don't screw anything up and I'll see you on Monday."  With that, 
the more junior trader tends to have a "buy side" bias, the more 
"important" institutional orders have been taken care of by the 
senior trader, and the market begins to experience a "buy side" 
bias.

Last year, the Dow Industrials finished its Wednesday trading at 
at 10,399.  On Friday, the Dow closed at 10,470.  The Monday 
after the "4-day senior trader weekend", the Dow closed at 
10,546.  The same time period had the S&P 500 trading 1,322, 
1,341 and 1,348.  The NASDAQ Composite closes were 2,755, 2,904 
and 2,880.  

I would also note that last year, all three major market averages 
mentioned above did see lower prices just ahead of the 
Thanksgiving weekend.  Will history tend to repeat itself?  We're 
never sure, but we now have something to look for.

Have a great weekend!

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

NEW BULLISH PLAY
=================

Gemstar-TV Guide - GMST - close: 25.54 change: -0.29 stop: 23.99

Company Description:
Gemstar-TV Guide International Inc. is a leading global 
technology and media company focused on consumer entertainment. 
The company has three major business sectors: the Technology and 
Licensing Sector, which is responsible for the development, 
licensing and protection of the company's intellectual property 
and proprietary technologies, including the VCR Plus+® system, 
interactive program guide ("IPG") products and services marketed 
under the GUIDE Plus+® and TV Guide Interactive(SM) brands and 
the electronic book ("Gemstar eBook(TM)"); the Interactive 
Platform Sector, which owns, operates and derives recurring 
income from advertising, interactive services and e-commerce on 
the company's proprietary interactive platforms; and the Media 
and Services Sector, which operates TV Guide® magazines, TV Guide 
Channel(SM), TVG Network(SM), SkyMall(TM) catalog sales and other 
non-interactive platforms, as well as a media sales group that 
services all of the company's media properties.  (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It:
The short version of why we like it is due to GMST's strong 
breakout over tough resistance fueled by a strong earnings 
announcement and confirmed with very strong volume.  The lower 
volume pull back on Friday looks like a great entry point.  Now 
for the longer version.  The company did announce earnings on 
Thursday and the results were positive despite the "sharp 
downturn in U.S. economic activity" as one analyst described it.  
GMST's EBITDA numbers were up by 20 percent over the same period 
a year ago.  According to a company press release, GMST's 
performance topped "the consensus expectations of analysts on all 
major performance metrics in all sectors."  A few big broker 
analyst came out in praise of the results.  One broker, JPM, has 
a 12-month target of $37 a share.  Also in the news this week was 
GMST's new plans to launch an interactive program guide (IPG) in 
a joint venture with Dentsu Inc. in Japan.    

Volume on the breakout over the $25 level was over 12.8 million 
shares versus the average of only 4.6 million a day.  The profit 
taking on Friday brought the stock back to $25.00 before bouncing 
higher.  This looks like a successful retest of previous 
resistance as new support.  If our GMST trades proceeds as 
planned the stock should rally from here and very conservative 
traders can sneak by with a stop just under $25.  However, the 
broader markets are at precarious levels despite their bullish 
trend and we want to start the GMST play with a little breathing 
room.  Our initial stop will be 23.99.  The newsletter is not 
going to publish a specific exit point at this time but active 
short-term traders may want to consider exit strategies at $29 
and $30 for a 13% to 17% profit.  

Picked on November 16th at $25.54 
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date               11/14 (confirmed)






==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

---------------------------------

POTENTIAL BULLISH STOCKS TO WATCH
=================================


Internet Security Systems - ISSX - close: 30.09 change: -0.65

WHAT TO WATCH:  The GSO.X software index may be trading sideways
but traders have been profit taking in ISSX after it hit a high
of 34.15 early this week.  The stock has come back to support at
$30 and this may be a good spot to look for an entry point.  
Depending on what you look at shares could dip to 28.50 but a
bounce there or at current levels could set up for a nice run 
up to its 200-dma near $35.




---

PolyMedica Corp - PLMD - close: 20.44 change: +1.18

WHAT TO WATCH: This stock looks like a definite winner with shares
breaking out above serious resistance at $20 and closing above the
intraday high set back on October 9th, 2001.  We don't see any
serious resistance until the $25 level.  The only challenge 
traders should worry about is the short-term overbought condition.
Watch for confirmation higher and use a tight stop.




---

Extreme Networks Inc - EXTR - close: 16.22 change: +0.28

WHAT TO WATCH:  There has been a lot of excitement in the 
networking sector this month and EXTR has definite upside
potential.  The last few days have seen the stock consolidate
near the $16 mark with support at $15.  We would consider 
setting a trigger at $16.75 to go long.  There is potential
resistance at $18 but with any market momentum EXTR can probably
make it to $20.




---

Affymetrix, Inc - AFFX - close: 33.80 change: +0.59

WHAT TO WATCH:  Very similar to the Biotech index, shares of 
AFFX have been coiling sideways.  Fortunately for shareholders
AFFX appears to have more of a bullish angle on it.  If the
BTK.X can begin to move higher again then AFFX looks like it
could spring forward toward round number price resistance of 
$40.  Active traders can consider an entry here with a stop
near 31.50 or consider a trigger to go long at $35.05.  The
BTK.X is the key.




---

Andrew Corp - ANDW - close: 22.80 change: +0.62

WHAT TO WATCH:  This communications equipment company has run
right up to previous resistance at $23.00.  The stock put in 
a nice move on Friday and closed at the high for the day which
is very bullish for Monday's open.  We would consider setting
a trigger to go long the stock at $23.15 or $23.20 which is
just over the double top formed in August.  If shares fail again
and close under its 10-dma the stock could see strong consolidation
back to $20 and potentially $18 again.




---

Deutsche Telecom - DT - close: 17.83 change: +0.46

WHAT TO WATCH:  There has been a lot of action in the telecom
sector lately and even more so in the overseas equities.  DT
has broken out above very strong resistance at $17.25 and the
stock looks poised to make a strong rally.  Even though there
is potential resistance at $19 and $20 we think DT could trade
to its 200-dma at $21.  Be prepared for a lot of gap ups and
downs at the open each morning.




---

Ariba, Inc. - ARBA - close: 5.09 change: +0.09

WHAT TO WATCH:  If you're a momentum trader then you've probably
already had your eye on this previous high-flyer from the 
Internet heyday.  The stock has seen a huge move up from its 
lows near $2.00 but the trend has been very strong after it
pulled back from the $4.90 level to test support at $4.00.
Consider a very tight stop with shares over $5.00 but upside
targets/resistance could be $6.00, $7.00 and its 200-dma at
$7.50.




---

Celgene Corp - CELG - close: 35.91 change: -1.08

WHAT TO WATCH:  Shares of this biopharmaceutical company have been
in a very steady ascending trading channel since early October.
Bulls have been stepping in to buy the stock near its 15-dma and
CELG is close to that now which is also near the bottom of its
channel.  The top of this channel is near $42 or more than 15% 
higher than current levels.  We'll consider this a potential play
if the stock starts to curve higher on Monday.  Look for dips
to $35.50 or $35.25 followed by a bounce with a stop under $35.25 
or under $35.00.  




---

Genta Incorporated - GNTA - close: 16.55 change: +0.43

WHAT TO WATCH:  If you're feeling adventurous check out shares
of GNTA.  The stock has produced a huge rally from $8.00 in 
mid-September to a high over $18 on Nov. 8th.  Shares have since
pulled back and bounced twice off its 15-dma, the same level of
support for the last month.  Friday saw a strong end of day
surge with a close back over the $16 level.  If you think GNTA
can breakout over $18 to reach new highs then this is the entry
point to jump in.  






POTENTIAL BEARISH STOCKS TO WATCH
=================================

Teva Pharmaceutical - TEVA - close: $58.01 change: -0.82

WHAT TO WATCH:  Shares of TEVA have been massacred lately from
the highs near $74 to the September low near $53.50.  The stock
rebounded back to $68 with the broad market rally late Sept. to
early October but after the stock filled the gap the selling 
began in earnest again.  TEVA appeared to produce a classic
failed rally at $60 on Friday.  We think this is an opportunity 
to short it with a target near $53.50.  Unfortunately, the
clearest place to put a stop is near $60.  This means we'd
have to risk $2 to make $4.50.  Obviously shares could go lower
but we're looking for a quick trade.  




---

Intuit Inc - INTU - close: 39.97 change: -1.85

WHAT TO WATCH:  From the looks of it there was nothing but good
news for INTU today.  So why did shares fall over 4%?  We don't
know.  Not knowing is probably what kept us from playing this
stock as a short.  The close under $40 is a bearish signal and
the hold chart looks like the stock is tired and wants to retest
the $35 level.  The MACD is rolling over and the 5-dma just
produced a bearish crossover with the 15-dma.




---

Fleming Cos. - FLM - close: 22.03 change: +0.15

WHAT TO WATCH:  This grocery stock has been in a serious down
trend since early August.  The last couple of days have shown
the stock to be consolidating near the top of its descending
trading channel.  We would consider it a short with a stop above
the 10-dma.  Our initial target would be $20 for a 10% gain but
FLM could fall lower.




---

BJ's Wholesale Club - BJ - close: 47.52 change: -2.40

WHAT TO WATCH:  We're confused.  If the discount stores are 
supposed to be out performing the rest why are investors selling
shares of BJ?  The stock collapsed under the $50 level after
the recent earnings report last week.  After a quick dip below
the 200-dma the stock rallied higher but couldn't hold it.
Friday's 4.8% drop back to $47.52 puts it back under the 200-dma
and this time it looks like it will stay there.  We anticipate
some support near $45 but this stock could be looking for a 
retest of its September lows or at least its May lows near $42.






===================
CONTINUING TO WATCH
===================

Sealed Air - SEE - close: 44.60 change: +0.07 

UPDATE: Shares of SEE are slowly creeping higher.  We're still
looking for that breakout over $44.50.

- Original Highlight on Weds. Nov. 14th, 2001 -

WHAT TO WATCH:  Readers should be familiar with the recent
winner we had in Bemis, the packaging company.  SEE is also 
a packaging company and we see a similar trend.  Shares appear
to move a bit slower but we have a strong bullish trend in place.
The last five days have identified resistance at $44.50 but the
stock also has resistance at 44.75 to 44.80 set back in mid-May.
Watch for shares to trade over $45.  This could be a potential
trigger to go long.




---

Emulex Corp - EMLX - close: 26.58 change: -0.72

UPDATE: EMLX is starting to look more and more tired after its
impressive run from $9 in early October.  EMLX may be a laggard
for the rest of the networking sector.  If shares breakdown 
below $25 we would consider a short.  Aggressive traders can
beat the rush and use $27.50 as a stop but odds of being 
stopped out are high.

- Original Highlight on Weds. Nov. 14th, 2001 -

WHAT TO WATCH:  EMLX is another networking stock worth watching.
Shares produced an extremely strong rebound during the month of
October but the trend has started to flatten out some as the
stock trades range bound between $30 and $25.  We would watch for
an upside breakout over $30 and its 200-dma at 30.50 to go long.
We would also watch for a downside breakout under $25 to consider
a short play.  Either one ought to be good for at least a 10% 
move if not more.  Aggressive bulls should take note that last
time shares traded down to its 15-dma was late October/early 
November and the stock retraced to this level again on Wednesday.
If you're really nimble you might be able to scalp the move from
$27 to $30 on its next rotation higher.




---

Qlogic Corp - QLGC - close: 46.66 change: -1.11

UPDATE:  Shares of QLGC continue to coil tighter as traders
wait for direction from the SOX.  A breakdown under $45 or
$44.50 would make QLGC a good short candidate.  A close over
$50 could be a trigger to go long.

- Original Highlight on Weds. Nov. 14th, 2001 -

WHAT TO WATCH:  The semiconductors have definitely been leaders
in this tech rally but if you've been reading the daily 
commentary by Jeff we're not sure how much higher the group
can climb without some consolidation first.  Shares of QLGC 
have been fighting with resistance at $50 for days but the
stock has been finding higher lows and is forming a bullish
pattern under this top.  The 10-dma has been the rally point
for bulls to step in and buy the dip.  At this point in the
game we would be looking for a breakout one way or the other.
The bullish pattern by definition has an upward bias for the
breakout but that's not a guarantee.  We would consider a long
play once shares trade over $50 or a short play if shares close
under $45.






================
Market Sentiment
================

Markets stall
by Russ Moore

Markets stall. Wall Street turned in a sluggish performance on 
this expiration Friday with both the DOW, and NASDAQ, dropping -
0.1 percent. The NDX was flat on the session.

Investors were fed an assortment of economic tidbits including 
the October CPI which came in right on target with a drop of -0.3 
percent. Industrial production continued to show weakness in 
manufacturing with a decline of -1.1 percent, the thirteenth 
consecutive drop in output. Capacity utilization hit its lowest 
level since May 93’, with a reading of -74.8 percent.

In addition to the economic data, investors had to deal with a 
couple of non-market events. Reports that a top military 
commander of the al-Queda, Mohammed Atef, had been killed gave 
the markets a temporary boost. Markets took a turn for the worse 
when a man broke through security checkpoint at an Atlanta 
airport.

Winning sectors on the broader markets included drug, airline, 
oil, oil service, natural gas, transportation and utility. 
Internet, software, and networkers enjoyed small gains on the 
tech side.

Here’s a switch, Trim Tabs reported inflows to equity funds of 
100 million for the five days ending November 14.

Next week’s volume is expected to be very thin with the 
Thanksgiving holiday leaving only 3.5 days to trade. Action will 
likely be erratic and should not be used as a gauge to measure 
sentiment shifts.

VIX 
Friday 11/16 close: 27.17


VXN
Friday 11/16 close: 55.04


30-yr Bonds
Friday 11/16 close: 5.30


Total Put/Call Ratio: .50


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .42


Index Option Put/Call Ratio:  1.61


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 39.37

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/118,488
Maximum puts : 37/ 65,336

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 38
 20 DMA 36
 50 DMA 33
200 DMA 42

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 588.07

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 580/3,707
Maximum puts : 500/4,149

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  580
 20 DMA  568
 50 DMA  553
200 DMA  611

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1138.65

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1200/32,053
Maximum puts : 1050/43,054

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1125
 20 DMA 1104
 50 DMA 1077
200 DMA 1188

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,866.99

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 98/25,152
Maximum Puts   88/40,652

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,664
 20 DMA  9,488
 50 DMA  9,259
200 DMA 10,207

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 583.05

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 580/  777
Maximum Puts:  540/1,146

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 575
 20 DMA 560
 50 DMA 506
200 DMA 536

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 529.92

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 710/411
Maximum Puts:  450/354

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 521
 20 DMA 491
 50 DMA 455
200 DMA 569

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 382.51

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 420/400
Maximum Puts:  360/301

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 392
 20 DMA 392
 50 DMA 388
200 DMA 393

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday 11/16
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
10/30/01     377,468   413,729   (36,261)   (0.06%)
11/06/01     376,807   416,063   (39,256)    8.2%
11/13/01     381,539   421,284   (39,745)    1.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
10/30/01       123,546    71,225    52,321    (6.2%)
11/06/01       132,106    81,208    50,898    (2.7%)
11/13/01       136,047    87,645    48,402    (4.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
10/30/01      32,055    45,574   (13,519)   29.5%
11/06/01      39,410    47,890    (8,480)  (37.0%)
11/13/01      38,751    49,257   (10,506)   23.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
10/30/01       12,725     6,475    6,250      34.9%
11/06/01       11,406     8,143    3,263     (47.7%)
11/13/01       11,568     6,505    5,063      55.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
10/30/01      25,872    12,556   13,316     (3.1%)
11/06/01      25,977    11,951   14,026      5.4%
11/13/01      24,145    10,204   13,941     (0.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
10/30/01       4,261    11,220    (6,959)      0.0%
11/06/01       3,569    12,281    (8,712)     25.2%
11/13/01       4,094    12,121    (8,027)     (7.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +48,402     +50,898        -39,745     -39,256

Total Open
Interest %       (+21.64%)  (+23.86%)     (-4.95%)   (-4.95%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -8,027     -8,712          +13,941    14,026
Total Open
interest %       (-49.50%)    (-54.97%)      (+40.59%)  (+36.98%)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +5,063      +3,263         -10,506    -8,480

Total Open
Interest %        (+28.01%)   (+16.69%)     (-11.94%) (-9.71%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Commercial players have apparently gone on an extended 
vacation. The Commercial net-short positions on the S&P 500 have 
been stuck around the 4.95 percent range for five weeks. Other 
than the usual gyrations of the Small Specs on the NASDAQ 100, 
significant moves have been absent.

Gold: Only a slight reduction in net-short Commercial positions .

10/16 51,816 contracts net-short
10/23 25,191 contracts net-short
10/30 33,199 contracts net-short
11/06 35,435 contracts net-short
11/13 23,637 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 11/13 by the CFTC.



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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 11-16-2001
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bullish Plays:    GMST, JNPR
  Bullish Play Updates: CIEN, LGTO
  Bearish Play Updates: WWCA
  Closed Bullish Plays: NETA

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  GE, IKN
  Bearish Play Updates:  BRL

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     SBAC
  Bearish Play Updates:  INTC, WBSN
  Closed Bullish Plays:  AOL

Split Trader
  - none -


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  ----------------
  New Bullish Play
  ----------------

Gemstar-TV Guide - GMST - close: 25.54 change: -0.29 stop: 23.99

Company Description:
Gemstar-TV Guide International Inc. is a leading global 
technology and media company focused on consumer entertainment. 
The company has three major business sectors: the Technology and 
Licensing Sector, which is responsible for the development, 
licensing and protection of the company's intellectual property 
and proprietary technologies, including the VCR Plus+® system, 
interactive program guide ("IPG") products and services marketed 
under the GUIDE Plus+® and TV Guide Interactive(SM) brands and 
the electronic book ("Gemstar eBook(TM)"); the Interactive 
Platform Sector, which owns, operates and derives recurring 
income from advertising, interactive services and e-commerce on 
the company's proprietary interactive platforms; and the Media 
and Services Sector, which operates TV Guide® magazines, TV Guide 
Channel(SM), TVG Network(SM), SkyMall(TM) catalog sales and other 
non-interactive platforms, as well as a media sales group that 
services all of the company's media properties.  (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It:
The short version of why we like it is due to GMST's strong 
breakout over tough resistance fueled by a strong earnings 
announcement and confirmed with very strong volume.  The lower 
volume pull back on Friday looks like a great entry point.  Now 
for the longer version.  The company did announce earnings on 
Thursday and the results were positive despite the "sharp 
downturn in U.S. economic activity" as one analyst described it.  
GMST's EBITDA numbers were up by 20 percent over the same period 
a year ago.  According to a company press release, GMST's 
performance topped "the consensus expectations of analysts on all 
major performance metrics in all sectors."  A few big broker 
analyst came out in praise of the results.  One broker, JPM, has 
a 12-month target of $37 a share.  Also in the news this week was 
GMST's new plans to launch an interactive program guide (IPG) in 
a joint venture with Dentsu Inc. in Japan.    

Volume on the breakout over the $25 level was over 12.8 million 
shares versus the average of only 4.6 million a day.  The profit 
taking on Friday brought the stock back to $25.00 before bouncing 
higher.  This looks like a successful retest of previous 
resistance as new support.  If our GMST trades proceeds as 
planned the stock should rally from here and very conservative 
traders can sneak by with a stop just under $25.  However, the 
broader markets are at precarious levels despite their bullish 
trend and we want to start the GMST play with a little breathing 
room.  Our initial stop will be 23.99.  The newsletter is not 
going to publish a specific exit point at this time but active 
short-term traders may want to consider exit strategies at $29 
and $30 for a 13% to 17% profit.  

Picked on November 16th at $25.54 
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date               11/14 (confirmed)




---

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 25.60 change: +0.48 stop: 24.49

Company Description:
Juniper Networks, Inc. is a leading provider of purpose-built 
systems that meet the scalability, performance, density, and 
compatibility requirements of rapidly evolving, optically enabled 
IP networks. The company's systems provide new IP infrastructure 
solutions for the world's leading service providers. Juniper 
Networks service, manufacturing, and IP engineering teams work 
closely with customers to build and support customer networks. 
The company is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
If you've been following the networking sector then you know that 
JNPR has been a recent favorite among investors both big and 
small.  The stock soared in mid-October when the company 
announced its 3Q earnings of 10 cents a share (pro forma) versus 
estimates of 7 cents.  JNPR gapped up from 16.64 to close at 
21.06 the next day and eight sessions later closed at 27.01.  
Since that time the stock has come back to retest the $20 level 
as support and then slowly rebuilt its gains.  Now shares stand 
just north of the $25 mark and appear poised to make a strong 
move up given the chance.  To boil it all down JNPR looks like a 
great momentum play.  To make it even more attractive the slow 
climb back from the $20 level will allow us to limit our risk 
with a relatively tight stop.  To begin the play we're going to 
target $32 and use a stop at $24.49.  This way if the 
market/sector/stock starts to fall we'll be out of the trade 
quickly.  Active short-term traders should consider closing the 
play at a profit this side of $30.  There is clear resistance 
near $27.50 and the $30 could be round number resistance.  Any 
dip above $25 looks buyable.

Picked on November 16th at $25.60 
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date               10/11 (confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

CIENA Corp. - CIEN - close: 19.42 change: +0.33 stop: 17.74

Hmmm...we're starting to question our choice of fiber and optical 
networking stocks.  CIEN is still coiling tighter with a bullish 
wedge under resistance at $20 but JDSU and GLW both out performed 
with a gain of $1 each on Friday.  The pattern developing on CIEN 
has an upside bullish bias but we're waiting for that breakout to 
really cash in on the move.  Traders still looking for entry 
points can look for dips to $19.00 or $18.90 as potential entries 
but look for the bounce up first.  If you prefer, traders can 
still wait for the breakout over $20 with a trigger at $20.01 or 
$20.05.  The newsletter has enjoyed two positive days so far but 
we did expect the stock to move a bit faster.  The sideways 
trading in the Nasdaq has probably put traders in a wait and see 
attitude.  

Picked on November 14th at $18.77 
Gain since picked:          +0.65
Earnings Date               12/13 (not confirmed)




---

Legato Systems - LGTO - close: 10.55 change: +0.09 stop: 9.98 *new*

Friday was yet another lackluster day for software-maker Legato.  
The Nasdaq's 2 point loss to 1898 and the GSO's 50 cent gain to 
170.50 didn't offer any leadership for the software sector.  LGTO 
dipped to its 5-dma in late trading but managed a small bounce.  
The bad news is LGTO's 200-dma is starting to drift lower and now 
rests near 11.65.  At the moment we'll hold out for a move up to 
$12 but closing the play at 11.65 would not be a bad strategy.  
We're going to tighten our stop to 9.98 while we wait for the 
move one way or the other.

Picked on November 8th at $10.47 
Gain since picked:         +0.08
Earnings Date              10/23 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Western Wireless - WWCA - cls: 26.09 chg: -0.78 stop: 27.01 *new*

Finally we're seeing some negative movement in our short play for 
WWCA.  The MACD was just hinting at an upward curve but today's 
drop helped reconfirm the move down.  Shares fell below the $26 
level and remained there for most of the day but managed a quick 
spike up at the close.  If shares close under $26 on Monday it 
may be the confirmation some traders were looking for to initiate 
a position.  Since the newsletter is hypothetically short at 
26.40 we're moving our stop down to $27.01.  The $27 level has 
remained stiff resistance for the last few days so we should be 
safe.  We're still aiming for that $20 level so if shares 
suddenly fall apart on us next week we'll close the play intraday 
at $20.  As it stands now our target could take a couple of weeks 
to reach but we're hoping for a quicker resolution between buyers 
and sellers.  A positive clue for the bears was the volume of 3 
million shares on Friday's drop versus the average volume of only 
800K.  

Picked on November 9th at $26.40 
Gain since picked:         +0.31
Earnings Date              11/07 (confirmed)





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Network Associates - NETA - cls: 21.90 chg: -1.36 stop: 22.15

Shares of NETA tried to break the $23.50 barrier again Friday 
morning but couldn't do it.  Buyers seemed to be temporarily 
exhausted and the stock fell sharply throughout the afternoon.  
If you were looking for a dip to $22 then you got it and then 
some.  Due to its closure under the $22 level we would anticipate 
a possible follow through down to the $21 area.  We would 
consider potential new long plays with a bounce near $21.  
Friday's slide stopped us out at $22.15, which allowed us to post 
a 6.38% gain in the stock price.

Picked on November 9th at $20.82 
Gain since picked:         +1.33
Earnings Date              10/18 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

General Electric - GE - close: 40.85 change: -0.70 stop: 39.90 

Option expiration Fridays can always produce interesting results 
and this Friday shares of GE appeared to rotate back to its 
nearest strike price of $40.  Traders could have been taking 
profits from the move up from its Monday lows.  The low today at 
40.26 could be considered a retest of the $40 support level.  
We're still expecting possible resistance near $42.25 but a 
strong rally in the Dow next week should be able to get the stock 
price through it.  

Picked on November 8th at $40.10
Gain since picked:         +0.75
Earnings Date              10/24 (confirmed)




---

Ikon Office Solutions - IKN - close: 9.98 change: -0.23 stop: 9.45

Uh oh.  Bullish investors in IKN should have their caution flags 
going off.  A pullback to support at $10 on a Friday heading into 
a weekend is nothing to be worried about.  The fact that the 
stock closed under that $10 level is the concern.  As we 
discussed above, it's possible that market makers and specialists 
brought the stock back to the $10 strike price on this option 
expiration Friday.  The good news is the upward trend is still 
intact.  Actually, if IKN fits your trading profile this may be a 
good place to start looking for an entry point.  To make things 
really exciting, look for a bounce near the 15-dma at $9.75, 
which was also Wednesday's low.  This would significantly limit 
your risk with a suggested stop at 9.45.  I would confirm the 
beginning of a bounce up first.  Traders could even look for the 
bounce to 9.75 and then consider a long position once shares 
trade back over $10.  We're not going to worry about the bearish 
twist in the MACD just yet as this is not the first time it has 
faked out the bears.  

Picked on November 12th at $10.20
Gain since picked:          -0.22
Earnings Date               10/25 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Barr Labs Inc - BRL - close: 65.19 change: +0.19 stop: 66.68 

Hope still remains for bears looking for another move down in 
generic-drug maker BRL.  The Wednesday/Thursday dip and rebound 
in the stock price appeared to guarantee a closure of this short 
play with a follow through move on Friday.  That follow through 
never came.  Resistance at $66 remained in effect but the stock 
coiled tightly sideways in a tight range.  It's very possible 
market makers and specialists wanted to keep the stock near the 
$65 option strike price on this expiration Friday.  Monday now 
becomes the day to watch as bulls and bears struggle for control 
of the stock price.  A quick recap of the week showed a stock 
already in a bearish trend after breaking down below its 200-dma 
surging lower on negative news from fellow generic drug maker 
Watson Pharmaceutical (NYSE: WPI).  However, the next day BRL's 
management publishes a press release claiming higher earnings for 
the next quarter.  Shares quickly rebound but can't bust through 
resistance at $66.  Readers can see that we have moved our stop 
to breakeven at 66.68.  At $65 we have a relatively low risk 
entry for new positions but we would strongly suggest traders 
wait for signs of the next trend to develop. 

Picked on November 8th at $66.68
Gain since picked:         +1.49
Earnings Date              10/23 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

SBA Communications - SBAC - close: 10.66 change: +0.85 stop: 9.65

Company Description
SBA is a leading independent owner and operator of wireless 
communications infrastructure in the United States. SBA generates 
revenue from two primary businesses -- site leasing and site 
development services. The primary focus of the Company is the 
leasing of antenna space on its multi-tenant towers to a variety 
of wireless service providers under long-term lease contracts. 
Since it was founded in 1989, SBA has participated in the 
development of over 15,000 antenna sites in the United States.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We like SBAC because the stock looks to have plenty of upside 
potential despite the strong gains it has already made from its 
October lows.  We placed this new long play in the high risk/high 
reward section because of the big move it has already produced 
this week.  The first thing traders should notice when the look 
at a chart of SBAC is the long steady down trend from its late 
April highs.  The stock has painfully evaporated from the $34 
level down to a low on Nov. 7th of $5.91.  During this time the 
selling would ease for a couple of weeks as the stock rebounded 
only to get squashed again.  This price history is yet another 
reason to place it in the high-risk category.  Of course the 
disciplined use of stop losses can prevent most of this pain.   
The stock recently announced its 3Q earnings on November 13th and 
the results were good.  The three months ending on Sept. 30th, 
2001 produced total revenues of $63 million, which is almost 39% 
higher than the previous year.  The company's chairman commented 
on their strong revenues despite a challenging business 
environment.  These positive results helped spur the strong gains 
in the stock this last week.  On a technical level we are 
encouraged that shares have broken through price resistance of 
$10.  The dip to $9.65 late Thursday and early Friday could have 
been bears trying to pressure the stock at a psychological 
resistance level like $10 but the bulls powered it higher.  
Another technical plus was the close at $10.66, which is above 
the Sept. 7th low of 10.48, which could have represented 
additional resistance at 10.50.

So how should traders approach this stock that has already 
rebounded more than 70% from its October lows?  We feel that 
Friday's close at 10.66 is a confirmation of the breakout over 
the $10 level from Wednesday.  The challenges that bulls will 
face is the 50-dma at 11.37 and a retracement level at 11.50.  We 
would encourage readers who have the ability to apply a 
retracement tool to the chart to do so.  We like to view the 
Fibonacci levels of 23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8%.  However, most tools 
also add the 50% level and many will highlight the ends at 0% and 
100%.  In addition to these, if you can, add the 19.1% and the 
80.1% (a couple of Mr. Bailey's favorites).  Now apply the tool 
to SBAC from the late April highs near 34.25 to the October low 
near 5.90.  It is uncanny how accurate the stock trades between 
these levels of support and resistance.  Add these technical 
levels to the common round number price support (psychological 
numbers for investors) and you have a very clear picture of what 
portfolio managers and market makers are trading.  You should see 
the 80.1% retracement very close to the 50-dma.  This could be a 
very tough hurdle for the stock.  However, one short-term signal 
some traders like to use is the 5-dma vs. the 15-dma.  SBAC just 
produced a bullish crossover with the 5 crossing over the 15.  
Additionally, the MACD is turning positive and also has plenty of 
upside.    

We decided to consult the point-and-figure chart for SBAC and it 
shows the stock on a fresh buy signal.  The new p-n-f bullish 
price target is $20.  This coincides with the descending bearish 
resistance line.  We're not quite that greedy but we're still 
going to aim for a move to $13.90 as our ultimate exit point.  
Shares might stall at $12 but if SBAC breaks out above the 11.50 
level there could be a short squeeze big enough to fuel the move 
higher.  We're going to initiate the play with a stop just under 
Friday's low at 9.64.  We're willing to risk 9.5% to hopefully 
make 30%.  If you like the pattern developing in the stock but 
you're not fond of our entry point consider waiting for shares to 
close above the 11.50 level - just use a tighter stop once you 
enter.  It's very possible that shares will pull back to the $10 
area which would make a good entry point but wait for the bounce 
up to begin.

Picked on November 16th at $10.66 
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date               11/13 (confirmed)





===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Intel Corp - INTC - close: 30.54 change: -0.24 stop: 31.51 *new*

Quite in tandem with the SOX.X, shares of Intel slowly drifted 
lower while the Nasdaq hugged tenaciously to the 1900 level.  In 
the news broker A.G. Edwards downgraded the stock from a "buy" to 
a "hold".  We are still looking for a quick sharp drop to the 
$28.00 - $27.70 level before the stock continues its upward 
trend.  Our speculation is based on the semiconductor sector's 
status as overbought in its bullish percent chart.  The hurdle 
for bears will be the $30 level of round number price support.  
We initiated this play with the belief the pull back will be 
quick and thus if it doesn't appear by next Wednesday we'll 
likely close the play.  Mr. Bailey has encouraged us to try the 
inside-day trading technique for this short play and thus we're 
going to move our stop down to just above the previous day's 
high.  You can read more about the inside-day trading technique 
in Premier's Bailey Basics section of the website (please note it 
is the "inside-day" technique not the inside "day trading" 
technique).  For more details on the play please check out the 
initial write up in Thursday's newsletter.

Picked on November 15th at $30.78 
Gain since picked:          +0.24
Earnings Date               10/16 (confirmed)




---

Websense, Inc - WBSN - close: 25.40 change: -0.35 stop: 27.16 *new*

The day of truth for WBSN has been postponed until next week.  
The stock has now completed its second day in a row below its 10-
dma while also closing below its 15-dma, an indicator some 
traders like to use for short-term direction.  The stock fell to 
true round number price support of $25 before bouncing slowly in 
the last couple of hours of trading.  The MACD is showing a 
definite bearish crossover so the new bearish trend could begin 
to pick up speed.  To help limit our risk we've lowered our stop 
to one cent above Thursday's high.  If you're looking to control 
your risk even further consider a stop just above the 10-dma at 
26.55.  Another approach traders could use is to wait for the 
stock to actually break under the $25 level.  If the stock trades 
to $21 we'll close it for a profit.  Currently the newsletter is 
up about 4.8% in the play.

Picked on November 14th at $26.69 
Gain since picked:          +1.29
Earnings Date               10/23 (confirmed)





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

AOL Time Warner - AOL - close: 36.90 change: -0.65 stop: 36.90

It looks like Harry Potter's magic couldn't save AOL from a 
little more profit taking as investors head off into the weekend.  
Shares of AOL posted its second loss in a row after topping out 
near $39.21 on Wednesday.  The stock bounced twice at $36.50 
before starting to move higher again towards the close.  If you 
have the time to read the dozens and dozens of news stories, 
releases and editorials on AOL you'll probably notice a 
difference of opinion in whether traders have already factored in 
a huge Harry Potter success for AOL's stock price or whether 
there is more upside to come.  One thing that could be weighing
on the stock is AOL's possible bid for AT&T's cable division.  If
they do make an official bid that AT&T agrees with AOL could see
its shares fall which is typical once a company announces a big
acquisition.  I wouldn't be surprised to see shares move up from 
here (or maybe continuing to dip to $36 first) and then make an 
assault on the $40 level.  We were stopped out at 36.90.  This 
allowed us to capture a 5% (really 4.97%) move in the stock 
price.

Picked on November 6th at $35.15 
Gain since picked:         +1.75
Earnings Date              10/17 (confirmed)






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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 11-16-2001
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
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charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/1018_3.asp
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of November 19th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      

=================================================================


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of November 19th
==================================================

  ------------------------
  Major Earnings This Week
  ------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est   

------------------------ MONDAY ------------------------

LOW     Lowe`s Companies      Mon, Nov 19  Before the Bell  0.31
NSANY   Nissan                Mon, Nov 19  -----n/a-----     n/a
SMTC    Semtech               Mon, Nov 19  After the Bell   0.09
TOY     Toys R Us             Mon, Nov 19  Before the Bell -0.22
VAL     Valspar               Mon, Nov 19  -----n/a-----    0.48

------------------------ TUESDAY ------------------------

APU     AmeriGas Partners     Tue, Nov 20  -----n/a-----   -0.79
ADI     Analog Devices        Tue, Nov 20  -----n/a-----    0.12
BJ      BJ`s Wholesale Club   Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell  0.40
BGP     Borders Group         Tue, Nov 20  After the Bell  -0.04
BFb     Brown-Forman          Tue, Nov 20  -----n/a-----    1.04
CIG     Companhia Energ.      Tue, Nov 20  -----n/a-----     n/a
DE      Deere & Company       Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell -0.46
EPC     Epcos                 Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell   n/a
IBI     Intimate Brands       Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell -0.02
KUB     Kubota                Tue, Nov 20  -----n/a-----     n/a
LTD     Limited               Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell -0.04
MBG     Mandalay Resort Group Tue, Nov 20  After the Bell   0.33
PDCO    Patterson Dental      Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell  0.33
ROST    Ross Stores           Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell  0.43
RY      Royal Bank of Canada  Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell  0.55
RYG     Royal Group Tech.     Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell  0.33
SKS     Saks                  Tue, Nov 20  After the Bell  -0.22
SFD     Smithfield Foods      Tue, Nov 20  -----n/a-----    0.53
SPLS    Staples               Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell  0.20
TLB     Talbots               Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell  0.57
TGT     Target Corporation    Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell  0.25
NGG     The National Grid Gr. Tue, Nov 20  -----n/a-----     n/a
TOT     Totalfina S A         Tue, Nov 20  During the Market 1.16
W       Westvaco              Tue, Nov 20  Before the Bell  0.24

------------------------ WEDNESDAY ------------------------

AZ      ALLIANZ AG            Wed, Nov 14  -----N/A-----     N/A
AC      Alliance Capital Man. Wed, Nov 21  -----n/a-----     n/a
BLI     Big Lots, Inc.        Wed, Nov 21  Before the Bell -0.14
CBRL    CBRL Group            Wed, Nov 21  Before the Bell  0.35
Z       Foot Locker, Inc.     Wed, Nov 21  Before the Bell  0.26
HRL     Hormel Foods          Wed, Nov 21  Before the Bell  0.47
ING     ING Group NV          Wed, Nov 21  -----n/a-----     n/a
SCM     Swisscom AG ADS       Wed, Nov 21  Before the Bell   n/a

------------------------ THURSDAY ------------------------

- None -

------------------------ FRIDAY ------------------------

- None - 


  -------------------------------
  Upcoming Stock Splits This Week
  -------------------------------

Upcoming Stock Splits This Week...

Symbol  Company Name          Splits  Payable    Executable
  
SIB     Staten Island Banc    2:1     11/19      11/20
ATVI    Activision            3:2     11/20      11/21
BRO     Brown & Brown         2:1     11/21      11/23
AMHC    American Health       3:2     11/23      11/26


  --------------------------
  Economic Reports This Week
  --------------------------

The earnings announcements are really starting to taper
off as we move into the Thanksgiving holiday week.  The
markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the
national holiday and only open half a day on Friday.
The main economic report to watch is the Michigan Sentiment
report on Wednesday.


Monday, 11/19/01
----------------
Housing Starts         Oct  Forecast: 1.515M  Previous: 1.574M
Building Permits       Oct  Forecast: 1.490M  Previous: 1.524M


Tuesday, 11/20/01
-----------------
Trade Balance          Sep  Forecast:-$26.0B  Previous:-$27.1B
Leading Indicators     Oct  Forecast:   0.0%  Previous:  -0.5%


Wednesday, 11/21/01
-------------------
Initial Claims       11/17  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:   444K
Mich Sentiment-Rev.    Nov  Forecast:   83.5  Previous:   83.5
Treasury Budget        Oct  Forecast: -$8.7B  Previous:-$11.3B


Thursday, 11/22/01
------------------
None                 -- Markets closed for Holiday --


Friday, 11/23/01
----------------
None                 -- Markets open half a day --



==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SFA     Scientific-Atlanta Inc     25.05     +0.99
AFC     Allmerica Financial Group  39.81     +0.66
PCP     Precision Castparts Corp   25.38     +0.57
VGR     Vector Group Ltd           43.27     +1.47
ATAC    Aftermarket Tech Corp      17.72     +1.52
PLMD    Polymedica Corp            20.44     +1.18

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

GLW     Corning Inc                10.05     +1.05
TLAB    Tellabs Inc                17.30     +1.85
JWN     Nordstrom Inc              19.85     +2.03
WIND    Wind River Systems Inc     18.79     +1.27
UAL     Ual Corp                   14.24     +1.53
HYSL    Hyperion Solutions         18.65     +1.20

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DOX     Amdocs Ltd                 33.31     +3.01
TSG     Sabre Holdings Corp        32.55     +2.15
MRVL    Marvell Technology Group   32.80     +4.02
KKD     Krispy Kreme Doughnuts     40.50     +1.70
CREE    Cree Incorporated          25.25     +1.15
SMTF    Smartforce                 22.43     +2.20
 

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
----------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

INTU    Intuit Inc                 39.97     -1.85
BCR     C.R.Bard Inc               57.80     -1.95
FLR     Fluor Corp                 36.81     -1.79
AEOS    American Eagle Outfitters  26.27     -4.23
RMG     Cable-Rainbow              20.41     -1.28


----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
----------------------------------------- 

LAB     Labranche & Co Inc          30.76     -1.20
KOSP    Kos Pharmaceuticals Inc     30.30     -2.40




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=================================================================
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=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright © 2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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