PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 11-19-2001 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/8542_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: This Market's No Turkey Market Sentiment: Bulls take aim on 10,000 Play-of-the-Day: Up and Over Resistance Watch List: TBL, MGAM, NVDA, KTC, KOPN, EMN ----------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Market Numbers ----------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 11-19-2001 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 9976.50 +109.50 9976.50 9870.40 1.30 bln 1955/1166 NASDAQ 1934.40 + 35.90 1934.70 1905.36 1.88 bln 2234/1427 S&P 100 595.07 + 7.00 595.08 588.07 totals 4189/2593 S&P 500 1151.06 + 12.41 1151.06 1138.65 RUS 2000 457.71 + 6.40 457.71 451.31 DJ TRANS 2532.52 + 35.15 2541.13 2499.76 VIX 25.72 - 1.45 27.21 25.46 Put/Call Ratio 0.43 ----------------------------------------------------------------- =========== Market Wrap =========== This Market's No Turkey Bulls returned Monday to carry the market averages higher. A broad-based rally carried the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closer to the "magical" 10,000 level. The financial media has been labeling 10,000 as "magical," it's not my term. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X) - the 100 largest Nasdaq-listed stocks - broke and closed slightly above its relative high at 1615. The S&P 500 (SPX.X) continued along a path of higher highs with its settlement above 1150. INDU Swing Stock Shares of General Electric (NYSE:GE) progressed slightly higher Monday. The stock has consolidated in the past four sessions, noting its sideways trading on lower volume. It traded in a tight range of 90 cents Monday, which further reinforced its current basing pattern. It was discouraging to witness the INDU and SPX advance by more than 1 percent without leadership from GE. It's apparent that the stock faces resistance at the $41.60 level; GE failed to break above that level in the last three sessions. Because of the pivotal role that the stock plays in both the INDU and SPX, GE is one to watch this week for insight into the progress of the market's rally. A breakout above horizontal resistance at $41.60 could indicate further upside in both the INDU and SPX. While weakness from current levels could portend a pullback in the averages. The INDU's close above 9900 was its first since September 5. The INDU faces resistance at 10,000 not so much for technical reasons but because of the psychology associated with the level. Significant media attention has been given to the level and for that reason resistance may become a self- fulfilling prophecy at 10,000. If the INDU were to advance past 10,000 uninterrupted Tuesday then the bulls will turn their collective attention to technical resistance between 10,100 and 10,150. The congestion zone might be a place that bulls take profits after the recent rally in the INDU. Bioterrific The AMEX Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) broke to a new relative high Monday. The index had consolidated in a wide range over the past two weeks but advanced out of that range with its move past 600. The BTK.X has acted as a leader for the broader Nasdaq market over the past two months. The BTK.X's move past the 600 level Monday may indicate further upside for the broader tech sector. The BTK.X next faces congestion between the 610 and 620 levels. Thereafter, it has a clear path to its June high of 675. Several biotech stocks hit new 52-week highs in Monday's session, including Imclone Systems (NASDAQ:IMCL) and Isis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ISIP). Neither of the aforementioned stocks is a component of the BTK.X. Among the best performing components of the BTK.X included Millennium (NASDAQ:MLNM), Protein Design Labs (NASDAQ:PDLI), and Affymetrix (NASDAQ:AFFX). Dirty Socks The Semiconductor Sector (SOX.X) was knocked down Monday morning by cautious analyst comments. Among others, Merrill's Joe Osha said he believed sentiment had moved ahead of fundamentals in the group. In other words, Osha opined that chip stocks had run too far too fast and were due for a pullback. Interestingly, the SOX.X had traded lower in the three sessions prior to the analyst comments Monday morning. It finished off of its lows, but still lower by 1 percent. The SOX.X is an important aspect of the broader technology sector as well as the Nasdaq-100. Semiconductors are present everywhere in tech, from cell phones to networking equipment. Chips are an integral part of technology and so is the price action of the SOX.X. In addition, a large number of large semiconductor companies are components of the Nasdaq-100, such as Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT). The two stocks alone account for over 8 percent of the Nasdaq-100. The cautious analyst comments Monday morning may have contributed to the weakness in the SOX.X, but it may have been headed lower anyway. After the recent rally to 550, the current four day pullback is a routine retracement of the gains. The SOX.X has been trading in a pattern of rallying to new relative highs followed by pullbacks to support, then repeating the process. If the four day pullback turns into five days, the SOX.X may trade down to 500 in Tuesday's session. The 500 area (between 492 and 500) may be the next logical rebound point in the SOX.X. If the Biotech Sector is accurately forecasting a further rally in the Nasdaq, then a reversal in the SOX.X from the 500 level would fit nicely into the bullish thesis. I can't envision the Nasdaq continuing to new highs without participation from the SOX.X Networking Working The Networking Sector (NWX.X) was led higher Monday by gains in current Premier Investor plays Ciena (NASDAQ:CIEN) and Juniper (NASDAQ:JNPR). Ciena was the second best performing component with its almost 9 percent gain on the day. Juniper held its own with a nearly 4 percent advance. The NWX.X has staged an incredible run in recent weeks and is close to test its summer highs. The index traded up to its 50 percent retracement level at 355 Monday and next faces resistance at the 364 level, which was its high in early July. During the month of June, the NWX.X sold off so sharply that it doesn't have much in the way of resistance until the 440 level. Of course it needs to clear its immediate overhead congestion between current levels and 364. But the fact that resistance beyond that level is another 80 points away reveals two things: The index has room to run and bears are growing nervous. Broad-Based Rally Monday's rally included virtually every industry group. Weakness was witnessed in the Gold and Silver Index (XAU.X), Utility Index (UTY.X), Oil Index (OIX.X), and the SOX.X. What do the Gold and Silver and Utilities have in common? They're both defensive in nature and not necessarily the best bets on an economic recovery. Even the truly defensive segments of the market, such as the Pharmas (DRG.X), put in a solid day Monday. The best bets on an economic recovery are found in the consumer (RLX.X), the banks (BKX.X) and brokers (XBD.X), the manufacturers of materials (CEX.X), information technology, even telecommunications (XTC.X, YLS.X). Monday's rally lifted each of the aforementioned groups and measurably so. Monday's rally sure felt like a big bet on an economic recovery next year. The bears might argue that the rally was on lighter volume, but that's all the bears have. In retrospect, I think that volume was pretty decent for a Monday ahead of a major holiday. Plus, the internals of the market were solid. Truly a good day to be a bull on the market and the U.S. economy. Eric Utley Premier Investor ================ Market Sentiment ================ Bulls take aim on 10,000 by Russ Moore Bulls take aim on 10,000. A solid open and close, with a whole lotta nothin in between. That pretty much sums up today’s action as the bulls came out charging, and, after drifting sideways for most of the day, mounted a late day charge to come within 26 points of the 10,000 mark. The DOW added +1.1 percent on the day while the NASDAQ gained +1.9 percent and the big cap NDX tacked on +2.2 percent. Volume was surprisingly strong for the Thanksgiving week with the NYSE moving 1.29 billion shares and the tech index trading 1.9 billion shares. Winners dominated losers by a 20/12 margin on the big board and a 22/14 count on the NASDAQ. Networking, Software and Internet sectors were headed north while the chips continued to give back some of their recent gains. On the broader markets the airline sector continued to fly with its’ fifth straight positive session. Biotech, retail and financial sectors were also on the rise. Utility and gold were both underwater. On the economic front housing starts fell -1.3 percent, slightly better than expected. Building permits were off -3.6 percent, a 36-month low. The bulls continue to skate in overbought territory while the bears keep hoping for a crack to develop real soon. It’s been all bulls for the past two months but that doesn’t mean we won’t get a modest pullback. Volatility indices are indicating a profit- taking session may not be too far off as levels continue to fall, and are now touching the lower Bollinger Bands. VIX Monday 11/19 close: 25.72 VXN Monday 11/19 close: 50.83 30-yr Bonds Monday 11/19 close: 5.20 Total Put/Call Ratio: .53 Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .46 Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.46 === NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ) 52-Week High: 103.51 52-Week Low: 28.19 Current close: 40.49 Volume/Open Interest Maximum calls: 40/132,987 Maximum puts : 37/ 65,707 Moving Averages 10 DMA 38 20 DMA 36 50 DMA 33 200 DMA 42 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 27.00 (09/21/01) 38% 36.60 50% 39.57 62% 42.59 === S&P 100 Index (OEX) 52-Week High: 834.93 52-Week Low: 491.70 Current close: 595.07 Volume/Open Interest Maximum calls: 580/3,866 Maximum puts : 500/6,231 Moving Averages 10 DMA 583 20 DMA 570 50 DMA 553 200 DMA 611 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 480.07 (09/21/01) 38% 556.14 50% 579.65 62% 603.55 === S&P 500 (SPX) 52-Week High: 1530.01 52-Week Low: 965.80 Current close: 1151.06 Volume / Open Interest Maximum calls: 1200/32,454 Maximum puts : 1050/43,012 Moving Averages 10 DMA 1130 20 DMA 1107 50 DMA 1077 200 DMA 1187 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 944.75 (09/21/01) 38% 1086.75 50% 1130.62 62% 1175.23 == DJIA (INDU) 52-Week High: 11,518.83 52-Week Low: 8,235.81 Current close: 9,976.46 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 98/25,262 Maximum Puts 88/40,655 Moving Averages: 10 DMA 9,718 20 DMA 9,518 50 DMA 9,258 200 DMA 10,199 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01) Relative Low 8,062.34 (05/21/01) 38% 9,308.92 50% 9,693.99 62% 10,085.60 == Biotech Index (BTK) 52-Week High: 811.61 52-Week Low: 383.28 Current close: 607.27 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 580/ 777 Maximum Puts: 540/1,146 Moving Averages 10 DMA 578 20 DMA 564 50 DMA 508 200 DMA 536 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00) Relative Low: 383.28 (03/22/01) 38% 546.22 50% 596.57 62% 646.71 == Semiconductor Index (SOX) 52-Week High: 1280.84 52-Week Low: 362.00 Current close: 524.76 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 640/368 Maximum Puts: 600/607 Moving Averages 10 DMA 523 20 DMA 495 50 DMA 454 200 DMA 568 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 343.93 (09/27/01) 38% 484.50 50% 527.18 62% 570.57 == Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) 52-Week High: 455.28 52-Week Low: 339.49 Current close: 394.92 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 420/406 Maximum Puts: 360/305 Moving Averages 10 DMA 392 20 DMA 392 50 DMA 388 200 DMA 393 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00) Relative Low: 339.49 (03/22/01) 38% 382.22 50% 395.69 62% 409.03 ***** CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday 11/16 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the Chicago Board Of Trade. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in favor of the commercial trader’s direction. S&P 500 Commercials Long Short Net %Change 10/30/01 377,468 413,729 (36,261) (0.06%) 11/06/01 376,807 416,063 (39,256) 8.2% 11/13/01 381,539 421,284 (39,745) 1.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01 Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144) - 5/1/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 10/30/01 123,546 71,225 52,321 (6.2%) 11/06/01 132,106 81,208 50,898 (2.7%) 11/13/01 136,047 87,645 48,402 (4.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 91,122 - 3/06/01 NASDAQ-100 Commercials Long Short Net %Change 10/30/01 32,055 45,574 (13,519) 29.5% 11/06/01 39,410 47,890 (8,480) (37.0%) 11/13/01 38,751 49,257 (10,506) 23.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01 Most bullish reading of the year: (1,825) - 1/02/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 10/30/01 12,725 6,475 6,250 34.9% 11/06/01 11,406 8,143 3,263 (47.7%) 11/13/01 11,568 6,505 5,063 55.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,028) - 1/02/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/01 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercials Long Short Net %Change 10/30/01 25,872 12,556 13,316 (3.1%) 11/06/01 25,977 11,951 14,026 5.4% 11/13/01 24,145 10,204 13,941 (0.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,925 - 5/22/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 10/30/01 4,261 11,220 (6,959) 0.0% 11/06/01 3,569 12,281 (8,712) 25.2% 11/13/01 4,094 12,121 (8,027) (7.8%) Most bearish reading of the year: (7,572) - 5/08/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 Small Specs Commercials S&P 500 (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value +48,402 +50,898 -39,745 -39,256 Total Open Interest % (+21.64%) (+23.86%) (-4.95%) (-4.95%) net-long net-long net-short net-short Small Specs Commercials DJIA futures (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value -8,027 -8,712 +13,941 14,026 Total Open interest % (-49.50%) (-54.97%) (+40.59%) (+36.98%) net-short net-short net-long net-long Small Spec Commercials NASDAQ 100 (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value +5,063 +3,263 -10,506 -8,480 Total Open Interest % (+28.01%) (+16.69%) (-11.94%) (-9.71%) net-long net-long net-short net-short What COT Data Tells Us ---------------------- Indices:.Commercial players have apparently gone on an extended vacation. The Commercial net-short positions on the S&P 500 have been stuck around the 4.95 percent range for five weeks. Other than the usual gyrations of the Small Specs on the NASDAQ 100, significant moves have been absent. Gold: Only a slight reduction in net-short Commercial positions . 10/16 51,816 contracts net-short 10/23 25,191 contracts net-short 10/30 33,199 contracts net-short 11/06 35,435 contracts net-short 11/13 23,637 contracts net-short Data compiled as of Tuesday 11/13 by the CFTC. ========================= Play-of-the-Day (Bullish) ========================= SBA Communications - SBAC - close: 11.60 change: +0.93 stop: 9.65 Company Description SBA is a leading independent owner and operator of wireless communications infrastructure in the United States. SBA generates revenue from two primary businesses -- site leasing and site development services. The primary focus of the Company is the leasing of antenna space on its multi-tenant towers to a variety of wireless service providers under long-term lease contracts. Since it was founded in 1989, SBA has participated in the development of over 15,000 antenna sites in the United States. (source: company press release) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP, Nov. 16th, 2001 - Why We Like It: We like SBAC because the stock looks to have plenty of upside potential despite the strong gains it has already made from its October lows. We placed this new long play in the high risk/high reward section because of the big move it has already produced this week. The first thing traders should notice when the look at a chart of SBAC is the long steady down trend from its late April highs. The stock has painfully evaporated from the $34 level down to a low on Nov. 7th of $5.91. During this time the selling would ease for a couple of weeks as the stock rebounded only to get squashed again. This price history is yet another reason to place it in the high-risk category. Of course the disciplined use of stop losses can prevent most of this pain. The stock recently announced its 3Q earnings on November 13th and the results were good. The three months ending on Sept. 30th, 2001 produced total revenues of $63 million, which is almost 39% higher than the previous year. The company's chairman commented on their strong revenues despite a challenging business environment. These positive results helped spur the strong gains in the stock this last week. On a technical level we are encouraged that shares have broken through price resistance of $10. The dip to $9.65 late Thursday and early Friday could have been bears trying to pressure the stock at a psychological resistance level like $10 but the bulls powered it higher. Another technical plus was the close at $10.66, which is above the Sept. 7th low of 10.48, which could have represented additional resistance at 10.50. So how should traders approach this stock that has already rebounded more than 70% from its October lows? We feel that Friday's close at 10.66 is a confirmation of the breakout over the $10 level from Wednesday. The challenges that bulls will face is the 50-dma at 11.37 and a retracement level at 11.50. We would encourage readers who have the ability to apply a retracement tool to the chart to do so. We like to view the Fibonacci levels of 23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8%. However, most tools also add the 50% level and many will highlight the ends at 0% and 100%. In addition to these, if you can, add the 19.1% and the 80.1% (a couple of Mr. Bailey's favorites). Now apply the tool to SBAC from the late April highs near 34.25 to the October low near 5.90. It is uncanny how accurate the stock trades between these levels of support and resistance. Add these technical levels to the common round number price support (psychological numbers for investors) and you have a very clear picture of what portfolio managers and market makers are trading. You should see the 80.1% retracement very close to the 50-dma. This could be a very tough hurdle for the stock. However, one short-term signal some traders like to use is the 5-dma vs. the 15-dma. SBAC just produced a bullish crossover with the 5 crossing over the 15. Additionally, the MACD is turning positive and also has plenty of upside. We decided to consult the point-and-figure chart for SBAC and it shows the stock on a fresh buy signal. The new p-n-f bullish price target is $20. This coincides with the descending bearish resistance line. We're not quite that greedy but we're still going to aim for a move to $13.90 as our ultimate exit point. Shares might stall at $12 but if SBAC breaks out above the 11.50 level there could be a short squeeze big enough to fuel the move higher. We're going to initiate the play with a stop just under Friday's low at 9.64. We're willing to risk 9.5% to hopefully make 30%. If you like the pattern developing in the stock but you're not fond of our entry point consider waiting for shares to close above the 11.50 level - just use a tighter stop once you enter. It's very possible that shares will pull back to the $10 area which would make a good entry point but wait for the bounce up to begin. - POD UPDATE, Nov. 19th, 2001 - Shares of SBAC jumped up today and closed over two tough resistance levels. The 50-dma is at 11.29 and the 80.1% retracement level (discussed above) is near 11.50. Today's big move came on strong volume of 1.3 million shares versus the average of just 831K. We would expect two scenarios tomorrow. A follow through surge higher towards our target of $13.90 or a pullback to the 10.50 or 10.25 level on profit taking. How you react to either scenario depends on your risk profile. We would suggest a tighter stop than the newsletter has posted if you enter the play above the $11.50 level. Picked on November 16th at $10.66 Gain since picked: +0.93 Earnings Date 11/13 (confirmed) ========== Watch List ========== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. ----------- Timberland Co - TBL - close: 36.56 change: +1.21 WHAT TO WATCH: If you're watching the news then you know there has been a lot of focus on retail stocks from across different industries. TBL is one retail stock that has been building on a very strong up trend from its September lows. Shares have recently broken through a ton of congestion between $34 and $36 and is resting right at overhead resistance near $36.50. The recent strength of the stock over the $35 mark makes the stock look like a potential long candidate. Aggressive traders can go for it now with a target between $40 or its 200-dma (42.50) and more conservative types can look for a pullback (and bounce) to the $35 level. --- Multimedia Games Inc - MGAM - close: 31.49 change: +0.99 WHAT TO WATCH: Wow, this stock has quite a trend on it from mid-September. We considered adding the stock as a long play with Friday's close over the $30 mark but it appears the best place to enter a bullish position is near the 10-dma. However, with the stock in breakout mode there is no telling how far it can run before coming back to the 10-dma (currently 28.75). Aggressive players may want to consider small positions. We would prefer for the pullback to the 10-dma or at least a dip to the $30 mark again. With all the attention paid to the console gaming stocks, fueled by the release of the XBox and the GameCube, these software players could be ones to trade multiple times over the next few months. --- NVIDIA Corp - NVDA - close: 51.34 change: -1.15 WHAT TO WATCH: If you're gonna look at console game stocks then you definitely want to keep an eye on NVDA. This stock has been a real favorite with tech investors and momentum traders alike. Management says earnings are going to be great for the next few years and analysts agree that the gaming industry is still in the early stages of a potential multi-year boom. The pull back to the 100-dma (48.50) and bounce back over the $50 mark may be a signal to watch NVDA for a new long position. The stock has been holding on to its placement over the $50 level and you can see how quickly buyers stepped in to buy the dip. Shares could continue to consolidate sideways but we would be watching for entry points to go long while the stock remains above $50. If NVDA sees a strong pull back with a broader market dip then the likely place to look for a bounce would be $45. --- Korea Telecom - KTC - close: 23.40 change: +0.47 WHAT TO WATCH: There seems to be a lot of interest in overseas telecom stocks lately. KTC is one of them and buyers have been slowly bidding up the stock for weeks. Shares have been able to hold its recent gap up over the $20 level and now are trying to breakthrough its 200-dma (23.43). The stock may look a little overbought but a breakthrough of its 200-dma could fuel a move up to $26.00 or even $28.00, given enough time. A more conservative approach would be to wait for a dip and bounce back at $20 or its 10-dma (22.50). It appears the stock may have some price resistance at $24.60 but the current trend looks strong enough to tackle it. --- Kopin Corp - KOPN - close: 16.27 change: +1.17 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this flat-panel display technology company have been consolidating near the $15.00 area. After a quick retest of support at $13.50 on Wednesday last week shares coiled tightly near $15 heading into the weekend. Now the stock has surged higher only to close under heavy resistance at $16.80. KOPN tried three times to get through this level near the first of August and failed. Bears will be trying to short the stock under 16.80 will bulls will be looking to buy the stock on a breakout. It could be worth watching. --- Eastman Chemical Co. - EMN - close: 39.51 change: +1.11 WHAT TO WATCH: After months of wasting away in a slow, painful downtrend from $55 to $37.50 shares of EMN fell drastically during the post- 9-11 market sell-off. Since then EMN has been trying to make a comeback and has actually broken out of the long-term downtrend. Unfortunately for the bulls the $40 level could be tough support. Unfortunately for the bears the stock recently broke through tough resistance between $38 and $39. The move from here could be forecasting direction for the next couple of weeks. Another factor to consider is the Dow's approach to overhead resistance between 10K and 10.2K. Any strong selling in the DJIA could weigh heavily on EMN. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 11-19-2001 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/8542_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: Net Bulls New Bullish Stop Adjustments: CIEN, GMST Stock Bottom/Active Trader Closed Bearish Plays: BRL High Risk/High Reward Closed Bearish Plays: WBSN Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Net Bulls (NB) section ================================================================== =========================== NB Bullish Stop Adjustments =========================== CIEN - close: 21.16 change: +1.74 stop: 20.74 *new* We knew that as soon as shares traded over the $20 level there would be a surge higher. We're going to try and protect about 10% of its current gains from our picked price of $18.77 with the new stop. If shares trade to $21.95 first we'll close the play at our target. --- GMST - close: 27.33 change: +1.79 stop: 24.99 *new* Shares of GMST produced a 7% surge on Monday but they are quickly approaching the Thursday high of $27.75. We're going to raise our stop from $23.99 to $24.99 in an effort to reduce our risk. ================================================================= Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== =============== AT Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Barr Labs Inc - BRL - close: 68.41 change: +3.22 stop: 66.68 A very broad rally across multiple sectors, including the drug sector, helped power shares of BRL above resistance at $66. The stock opened near 66.50 then pulled back towards the $65 level before taking off with the rest of the market in an end of day rally. The newsletter's bearish strategy has been stopped out at the breakeven point of $66.68. We should have taken our own advice and closed the play on any dip towards $60, which occurred a few days ago. Picked on November 8th at $66.68 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 10/23 (confirmed) ================================================================= High Risk / High Reward (HR) section ================================================================== =============== HR Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Websense, Inc - WBSN - close: 27.15 change: +1.75 stop: 27.16 We hate it when that happens. Our 4.8% gain in WBSN evaporated Monday afternoon as tech stocks lead the market higher. We knew the key level to watch was $25 and the bulls were not willing to let go with several sectors breaking through key levels of hitting new relative highs. The $27.50 level should still be resistance for WBSN and this could be a short-term oversold bounce (after the last three down days in a row). The stock still looks very overbought and we are not willing to chase it for a bullish trade. We were stopped out of the play this afternoon for a 47-cent loss. Picked on November 14th at $26.69 Gain since picked: -0.47 Earnings Date 10/23 (confirmed) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. --------------------------------- Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change CI Cigna Corp 88.17 +2.32 MBI Mbia Inc 49.17 +0.79 ABK Ambac Financial Group 53.71 +1.35 RBK Reebok Intl. Ltd 24.31 +1.03 SFP Salton Inc 15.70 +0.85 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change TRLY Terra Networks 8.99 +1.03 PER Perot Systems Corp 18.30 +1.30 COGN Cognos Inc 19.30 +1.35 RMBS Rambus Inc 10.74 +1.18 UAL Ual Corp 16.72 +2.48 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change PHA Pharmacia Corp 45.20 +3.85 LOW Lowe's Companies Inc 43.10 +2.75 DCX Daimlerchrysler 42.14 +2.19 HIT Hitachi Ltd 78.30 +2.92 USAI Usa Networks Inc 22.06 +1.17 ----------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change AZN Astrazeneca Plc 45.25 -1.10 TXU Txu Corp 45.59 -1.81 SYK Stryker Corp 53.23 -1.39 STJ Saint Jude Medical Inc 68.24 -2.62 BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Inc 43.70 -3.82 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- NVDA NVIDIA Corp 51.34 -1.15 HRB H&R Block Inc 37.28 -0.74 LRCX Lam Research Corp 22.20 -0.36 CHBS Christopher & Banks Corp 35.62 -0.47 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. 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