PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 11-27-2001 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/7659_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Down, then up, then down again Market Sentiment: Confidence slips Play-of-the-Day: Entry At The Top (bearish) ----------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Market Numbers ----------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 11-27-2001 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 9872.60 -110.15 9992.72 9831.15 1.3 bln 1396/1724 NASDAQ 1935.82 - 5.27 1965.09 1902.89 2.1 bln 1758/1914 S&P 100 590.83 - 5.41 598.57 586.86 Totals 3154/3638 S&P 500 1149.49 - 7.93 1163.38 1140.81 RUS 2000 460.71 - 0.51 463.25 457.92 DJ TRANS 2509.30 - 16.55 2539.62 2500.64 VIX 25.21 - 0.03 26.35 24.08 VXN 49.27 + 1.05 51.30 48.01 TRIN 1.09 Put/Call Ratio .74 ----------------------------------------------------------------- =========== Market Wrap =========== Down, then up, then down again Shorter-term traders had to be rather quick at the trigger today as the markets whipped around on a roller coaster ride. The trading session started out lower and economic data was about as mixed as the trading session. Existing home sales came in stronger than expected, helped along by the lower mortgage interest rates found earlier in November. But the positive news there was offset with today's consumer confidence numbers that showed the consumer had lost some confidence since October, brought on mainly by lack of confidence in the job market. Today's consumer confidence number is based mainly on near-term confidence levels in the economy, yet the same survey showed that consumers were actually becoming more positive 6-months out. Many feel the longer-term confidence rise in today's report is due to the recent rise in stock prices, and may not necessarily reflect consumer's views on job prospects 6- months from now. As you can tell, today's economic reports didn't really help traders make any type of firm decision on near-term stock price direction and it certainly showed in trading. In the first 90-minutes of trading, the Dow Industrials fell 152 points from yesterday's close, only to rally back into positive ground near the 9,992 level (just under psychological resistance of 10,000) and then reverse course from there and close down 110 points at 9,872 in the remaining 90 minutes of trading. That 10,000 level certainly looks to be a level where we're going to need to see some type of "event" to get through. In essence... the market is a patient right now with a fragile psyche. It's not just the Dow Industrials either. Shares of Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) were leading the charge higher during the bull run from 12:00 to 2:00 PM EST, but came a penny shy of trading the $33 level, which would have been a level not seen by shares of Intel (INTC) since March of this year. A trade at $33, would have also been enough to get the stock back on a point and figure buy signal and break its longer-term downward trend. Intel Chart - $0.50 and $1 box On November 16th, in our 01:00 EST Update, we tried to "envision" a bearish trade in shares of Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) near $31. Since that time, the point/figure chart has shown an additional "X" as price did achieve the $32 level, but that's it. At today's Credit Suisse First Boston Investment Conference, CEO Andy Bryant, said he remains comfortable with Q4 guidance and revenue estimates of $6.2-$6.8 billion. That had the stock recovering from session lows near $31, but not enough to have demand outstripping supply near the $33 level. The relative strength chart for Intel vs. the S&P 500 continues to improve and relative strength is growing. I get the distinct impression that the MARKET likes the stock, but just not willing to pay $33 to get it. Instead, looking for a pullback near the $27-$28 range as a better entry point. Just when shares of Intel (INTC) were trading near the $32.99 level, chip analyst Dan Niles at Lehman Brothers said he remained cautious on shares of Intel as he believes sales thus far in the quarter are less important than end-user sales from companies such as Dell Computer (NASDAQ:DELL) between Thanksgiving and year-end. Niles said he's prepared to downplay any upside bias in those numbers, arguing that Q4 strength in sales would come at the expense of Q1 sales. This has me wondering who the seller is just under $33. Any guesses? What's a penny? It seems so outlandish that a penny could make any type of difference in how a trader/investor views a chart or perception of a stock. However, I've actually seen more times than not, that a penny makes a big difference in how things pan out. I think I've told the story of an investment I had made years ago in Bay Networks, since bought by Nortel (NYSE:NT). I had bought the stock in clients accounts near $22 and had a stop set on the positions at $20.99. After establishing the position, I sat there one day, with head in hands as the market and the stock were under selling pressure. I kid you not... the stock traded $20.00 then a bid appeared for 100,000 at $20.01. 3-months later, clients were dumping the stock at $39, just under our bullish price objective of $40. I'll remember that penny for the rest of my life. Medtronic Chart - $1 box Today's trade at $44.99 looks as suspicious as Intel's trade at $32.99. With the 200-day moving average just above at $44.09, a break above that key longer-term moving average and breaking of bearish resistance could have bulls running the stock higher. I'll be keeping an eye on shares of Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) rather closely the next couple of weeks. Earnings came in line with expectations tonight at $0.29 and revenues matched estimates precisely at $1.571 billion. Institutions are most likely going to be pleased with the past guidance the company has given regarding earnings and revenues. At the time of this writing, the company had not given forward guidance on what lies ahead. As for now, the technicals in the above chart are still rather bearish. The stock looks shortable with a stop at $46, but I'm hesitant to short the stock as earnings/revenue guidance has been consistent and rather reliable and there is comparable year-over- year growth present in the fundamentals. Analysts may like the rather "predictable" or "reliable" guidance and willing to support the stock on any type of pullback. Relative strength is also very close to reversing back higher. Relative Strength Chart of MDT vs. S&P 500 The relative strength chart remains bearish, but very close to reversing back into a column of X's. A trade at $46 will have shares of MDT above the 200-day MA and also giving a double-top buy signal and breaking above bearish resistance. We won't know for sure if a trade at $46 will have the relative strength chart turning back into a column of X's, as we will have to measure against the S&P 500 and what it is trading at should such events unfold. However, earnings are out of the way and it's a stock with earnings where there is some growth in both top and bottom line fundamentals that's worth keeping an eye on. What is it about "$XX.99 cents?" PremierInvestor.net first profiled shares of SBA Communications (NASDAQ:SBAC) as bullish on November 16th at $10.66 in the "High Risk/High Reward" section of the site. Today, we moved shares of SBAC to the "Play of the Day" section as bullishness looked to be building. It sure looks like you could almost consider the decline from $34 to $6.25 as "the pied", then dissect that pie with retracement. But holy cow! Even that retracement (blue) doesn't give you too many levels to help control your risk. But a "nested retracement" using the recent relative high, to the recent relative low (red retracement) sure gives hint that this is exactly what market makers have done and shows us the levels they're most likely trading. Based on "blue" retracement at 19.1%, market makers may have begun trying to get their inventories back to a more neutral bias, as risk soon became the 38.2% level at $16.80. That 19.1% retracement at $11.52 from the "blue" bracket also correlates nicely with the 50% retracement level from our nested "red" bracket at $11.49. Yesterday's close at $11.70 most likely left the stock with a bullish bias short-term to $12.73 and that may continue to be the case up into the $14.73-$16.73 range. For a short-term trader, today's 11.02% gain is pay dirt, let alone those more aggressive bulls that took the play early last week. Today's close at $12.99 hints of a seller around the $13 level, but its worth a trailing stop to see if some broader market bullishness might not lift the stock higher still, but I think we'll need to see broader market bullishness for that to happen. For lower priced stocks like SBAC that have declined like they have in recent month and a retracement bracket from a wide range leaves you with levels that are just too far apart for proper risk management, try the "nested" retracement bracket like that above. All we're doing is taking a bigger pie, identifying a slice (smaller range) and establishing some more manageable levels to help better assess risk/reward and get a feel for where the near-term buy/sell pressure most likely exists. Jeff Bailey Senior Market Technician ================ Market Sentiment ================ Confidence slips by Russ Moore Confidence slips, and so do the markets. A decline in the consumer confidence index created some nervousness on Wall Street, and downside pressure on stocks. The DOW was under the gun early on however, the blue chip index staged an early afternoon rally and actually stuck its’ head into positive territory for a few minutes before heading lower. The DOW closed with a loss of -1.1 percent. Tech stocks enjoyed a lengthy ride in positive territory thanks to a bullish comment attributed to Intel. The chip company announced at a CSFB tech conference that it was becoming more comfortable with its fourth quarter outlook. The upside ride was halted with about an hour left in the session leaving the index with a fractional loss of -0.3 percent. The NDX slipped -0.6 percent. Volume was solid with 1.28 billion shares trading on the big board and 2.13 billion shares moving on the tech index. Losers nosed out winners by a 17/14 margin on the NYSE and a 19/18 count on the NASDAQ. Oil service, natural gas, gold, and chip sectors were all higher on the session. The consumer confidence index fell to 82.2 from October’s 85.3, much lower that the 86.1 expected. Among lower-income survey participants, the confidence number was at 52.0. The gloomy confidence number was partially offset by a rise in existing home sales. Sales were up 5.5 percent to 5.17 million, far better than the 4.90 million level that had been expected. We mentioned yesterday that the 200DMA’s on the major indices should provide a major test for the bulls, and if broken, may create a sense of urgency amongst the bears. The NASDAQ attempted to get over that hurdle today but was turned away. Rest assured, these levels are being monitored closely by a large number of sideline watchers. VIX Tuesday 11/27 close: 25.24 VXN Tuesday 11/27 close: 48.22 30-yr Bonds Tuesday 11/27 close: 5.37 Total Put/Call Ratio: .74 Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .66 Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.40 === NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ) 52-Week High: 103.51 52-Week Low: 28.19 Current close: 40.20 Volume/Open Interest Maximum calls: 40/149,587 Maximum puts : 40/ 86,305 Moving Averages 10 DMA 39 20 DMA 38 50 DMA 34 200 DMA 41 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 27.00 (09/21/01) 38% 36.60 50% 39.57 62% 42.59 === S&P 100 Index (OEX) 52-Week High: 834.93 52-Week Low: 491.70 Current close: 590.83 Volume/Open Interest Maximum calls: 600/4,114 Maximum puts : 500/6,678 Moving Averages 10 DMA 590 20 DMA 578 50 DMA 556 200 DMA 608 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 480.07 (09/21/01) 38% 556.14 50% 579.65 62% 603.55 === S&P 500 (SPX) 52-Week High: 1530.01 52-Week Low: 965.80 Current close: 1149.50 Volume / Open Interest Maximum calls: 1150/36,167 Maximum puts : 1050/43,169 Moving Averages 10 DMA 1144 20 DMA 1121 50 DMA 1083 200 DMA 1181 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 944.75 (09/21/01) 38% 1086.75 50% 1130.62 62% 1175.23 == DJIA (INDU) 52-Week High: 11,518.83 52-Week Low: 8,235.81 Current close: 9,872.60 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 98/25,220 Maximum Puts 90/51,632 Moving Averages: 10 DMA 9,884 20 DMA 9,648 50 DMA 9,289 200 DMA 10,173 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01) Relative Low 8,062.34 (05/21/01) 38% 9,308.92 50% 9,693.99 62% 10,085.60 == Biotech Index (BTK) 52-Week High: 811.61 52-Week Low: 383.28 Current close: 613.89 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 580/ 791 Maximum Puts: 470/1,135 Moving Averages 10 DMA 594 20 DMA 577 50 DMA 517 200 DMA 536 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00) Relative Low: 383.28 (03/22/01) 38% 546.22 50% 596.57 62% 646.71 == Semiconductor Index (SOX) 52-Week High: 1280.84 52-Week Low: 362.00 Current close: 536.60 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 520/ 752 Maximum Puts: 470/1583 Moving Averages 10 DMA 524 20 DMA 508 50 DMA 455 200 DMA 564 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 343.93 (09/27/01) 38% 484.50 50% 527.18 62% 570.57 == Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) 52-Week High: 455.28 52-Week Low: 339.49 Current close: 399.69 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 420/406 Maximum Puts: 360/320 Moving Averages 10 DMA 396 20 DMA 393 50 DMA 390 200 DMA 392 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00) Relative Low: 339.49 (03/22/01) 38% 382.22 50% 395.69 62% 409.03 ***** CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Monday, 11/26. Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the Chicago Board Of Trade. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in favor of the commercial trader’s direction. S&P 500 Commercials Long Short Net %Change 11/06/01 376,807 416,063 (39,256) 8.2% 11/13/01 381,539 421,284 (39,745) 1.2% 11/20/01 369,784 415,822 (46,038) 13.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01 Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144) - 5/1/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 11/06/01 132,106 81,208 50,898 (2.7%) 11/13/01 136,047 87,645 48,402 (4.9%) 11/20/01 140,507 86,861 53,646 9.8% Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 91,122 - 3/06/01 NASDAQ-100 Commercials Long Short Net %Change 11/06/01 39,410 47,890 (8,480) (37.0%) 11/13/01 38,751 49,257 (10,506) 23.9% 11/20/01 38,042 46,446 (8,404) (20.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01 Most bullish reading of the year: (1,825) - 1/02/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 11/06/01 11,406 8,143 3,263 (47.7%) 11/13/01 11,568 6,505 5,063 55.1% 11/20/01 12,933 8,230 4,703 (7.1%) Most bearish reading of the year: (1,028) - 1/02/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/01 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercials Long Short Net %Change 11/06/01 25,977 11,951 14,026 5.4% 11/13/01 24,145 10,204 13,941 (0.6%) 11/20/01 25,033 11,525 13,508 (3.1%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,925 - 5/22/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 11/06/01 3,569 12,281 (8,712) 25.2% 11/13/01 4,094 12,121 (8,027) (7.8%) 11/20/01 3,609 10,565 (6,956) (13.3%) Most bearish reading of the year: (7,572) - 5/08/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 Small Specs Commercials S&P 500 (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value +53,646 +48,402 -46,038 -39,745 Total Open Interest % (+23.59%) (+21.64%) (-5.86%) (-4.95%) net-long net-long net-short net-short Small Specs Commercials DJIA futures (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value -6,956 -8,027 +13,508 13,941 Total Open interest % (-49.07%) (-49.50%) (+36.94%) (+40.59) net-short net-short net-long net-long Small Spec Commercials NASDAQ 100 (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value +4,703 +5,063 -8,404 -10,506 Total Open Interest % (+22.22%) (+28.01%) (-9.95%) (-11.94%) net-long net-long net-short net-short What COT Data Tells Us ---------------------- Indices:.Commercial players finally moved off of their four-week holding period as they added to their net-short positions. The increase was limited to less than a percentage point; nonetheless, it does show that the Commercials have not yet moved in to a full-blown accumulation phase (bullish) and would appear to be playing a cautious hand. Gold: November has not been kind to the XAU (gold and silver index), however, Commercial players have reduced their net-short contracts to near flat and that could signal a bounce in gold is around the corner. 10/23 25,191 contracts net-short 10/30 33,199 contracts net-short 11/06 35,435 contracts net-short 11/13 23,637 contracts net-short 11/20 2,489 contracts net-short Data compiled as of Tuesday 11/20 by the CFTC. ========================= Play-of-the-Day (Bearish) ========================= Intrado Inc - TRDO - close: 26.85 change: -0.75 stop: 28.61 Company Description Founded in 1979, Intrado Inc. is pioneering the technology of Informed Response(TM) by providing telecommunications companies and public safety organizations with accurate, efficiently- delivered, mission-critical information -- enabling them to respond effectively, anywhere and anytime, regardless of location, device or protocol. The company's unparalleled industry knowledge in data management, network transactions, and notification technology reduces the effort, cost, time and complexity associated with providing reliable communications information for 9-1-1, safety and commercial applications. (source: company press release) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP, Nov. 23rd, 2001 - Why We Like It: You've probably heard the phrase; "The trend is your friend". For TRDO, the new trend is down. Previously named SCC Communications, the stock seemed to have a volatile year through the summer months with wide swings both up and down forming a very wide channel. Shares fell with the rest of the market in September but even the late September moves were pretty violent. October started to soften things out as the broader market ran higher. However, about mid-October TRDO ran out of gas and the MACD has been negative ever since. It probably had something to do with its 3Q loss widening despite an 80% increase in revenues. TRDO is now trading in a wide descending channel and four days ago it ran into resistance near the top of that channel. Three days ago it fell below its 50-dma and now it appears to be picking up a little speed. There is probably round number price support at $25 but the bottom of the channel should be between $22.50 and $20.00. We're going to target $22.50 and if shares trade there intraday we'll close the play for a gain. To start the play we'll put our stop just over Tuesday's high at 28.61. Once TRDO begins to confirm the move down we'll snug our stop tighter as it progresses. As long as the stock remains under its 50-dma we should do okay. - POD UPDATE, Nov. 26th, 2001 - Our new bearish play is slowly creeping lower. The short-term trend of lower highs and lower lows is setting up for a breakdown below the $26 level. If this occurs we would expect TRDO to trade to $25 and $24 in the couple of days following. We're still aiming for the $22.50 level and we're encouraged by the higher volume on today's decline. If you're looking for new positions we would consider anything under $28.00 to $27.50 worth evaluating and more conservative traders might be able to get away with a stop just north of $28. The newsletter will leave its stop at 28.61 for now. Confirm stock and market direction before playing. Picked on November 23rd at $27.23 Gain since picked: +0.38 Earnings Date 10/25 (confirmed) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 11-27-2001 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/7659_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: Net Bulls Bullish Play Updates: CBR Bearish Play Updates: RLRN, WWCA Closed Bullish Plays: NOK Stock Bottom / Active Trader New Bearish Plays: LFG Bullish Play Updates: GE Bearish Play Updates: PB High Risk / High Reward New Bearish Plays: VSNX Bullish Play Updates: AKLM, SBAC, TMPW Bearish Play Updates: TRDO Split Trader - none - Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Net Bulls (NB) section ================================================================== =============== NB Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Ciber Inc - CBR - close: 7.74 change: +0.21 stop: 7.51 *new* The broader markets are beginning to look pretty tired and everyone is talking about a pull back to consolidate the market's gains. This may be true for the DJIA and the NASDAQ but CBR put in another strong day. Actually, CBR's strength was not without some volatility. The stock dipped to 7.21 midday before trading up towards 7.80. We still hold to the idea that CBR can trade to $8.50 but given the current market environment, after the recent negative economic reports, we are going to put an exit price of $8.00 on CBR. Thus, if CBR trades to $8.00 intraday, Premier will close the play at $8.00. To protect a portion of our gains we will raise the stop to $7.51. This will allow for a 5% gain in the stock price. We were reluctant to make this decision because it looks like we'll get stopped out tomorrow morning before CBR can get the chance to aim for $8.00. However, a 5% gain is better than being stopped out at breakeven or a small loss. In the news, a press release reported that CBR had teamed up with the Insurance Federation of Pennsylvania for the City of Philadelphia in some sort of auto accident database. Currently, Premier is up over 8% in CBR. Picked on November 23rd at $ 7.15 Gain since picked: +0.59 Earnings Date 10/29 (confirmed) -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Renaissance Learnings - RLRN cls: 25.75 chg: +0.65 stop: 26.51*new* We would be cautious on this bearish play for RLRN. The stock is slowly grinding higher after its breakdown last week. Monday's move was non-existent but Tuesday's bounce higher has us on alert. We have lowered our stop to $26.51, which is near the high back on Nov. 20th. If the $26.00 - $26.50 level can hold as resistance we'll probably be okay. At the moment we would only feel comfortable starting new short positions if RLRN trades back under the $25 mark. Picked on November 23rd at $25.16 Gain since picked: -0.59 Earnings Date 10/15 (confirmed) --- Western Wireless - WWCA - cls: 24.90 chg: -0.26 stop: 25.88 *new* Our patience with WWCA appears to be paying off. The stock fell quickly at the open again and spent the rest of the day consolidating sideways under the $25 mark. Tuesday's close allows for a $1.50 gain and a 5.6% move in the play since we picked it on Nov. 9th. Very conservative traders could consider a new stop just over $25.20 but any bounce tomorrow would surely trigger your stop. We are going to move our stop down from Monday's stop of $26.01 to a new stop at $25.88 or Monday's high. The fact that shares closed under $25 and the last two days of declines have been made on greater than average volume is encouraging for our bearish target near $20. There has be no news stories for WWCA lately. Picked on November 9th at $26.40 Gain since picked: +1.50 Earnings Date 11/07 (confirmed) =============== NB Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- Nokia Corp - NOK - close: $23.72 change: -1.52 stop: 23.25 We knew that the annual analyst conference for NOK could introduce some volatility into the stock and a glance at the intraday chart shows that traders were unsure which direction to take it. NOK announced that they expected to sell 380M handsets, which is down from the previous estimates of 390M that had previously been lowered from 405M. Despite this negative news, NOK painted a brighter picture for 2002 with a stronger second half. Unfortunately, it appears that investors chose to focus on the more negative 2001 numbers versus the NOK management's guidance of 15% growth for 2002. The stock gapped down at the open to $23.90 and traded below its 15-dma to 23.19 which stopped us out at 23.25. Midday the shares bounce higher but selling resumed towards the close. The current bullish trend is still intact as long as NOK does not close below its 15-dma (currently at 23.50). We would also keep an eye on its 200-dma resting near 23.23. Picked on November 21st at $23.00 Gain since picked: +0.25 Earnings Date 10/19 (confirmed) ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== ============ AT New Plays ============ ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Landamerica Finl Group - LFG - cls: 23.74 chg: -1.01 stop: 25.01 Company Description LandAmerica Financial Group, Inc. is a leading provider of title insurance and a broad range of real estate-related services. LandAmerica, through its subsidiaries Commonwealth Land Title Insurance Company, Lawyers Title Insurance Corporation and Transnation Title Insurance Company, services its residential and commercial customers with more than 600 offices throughout the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, Central and South America. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: The last several sessions has shown the S&P Insurance sector to be struggling with resistance at 720. That was until today. The IUX.X rebounded off its 15-dma on Friday and since then has broken upward to trade right to 730, its 200-dma. In contrast, LFG has been bouncing along support at $25.00 and failed at its 10-dma on Monday while also breaking down below serious support at $25. Tuesday's drop confirmed the new trend and we think it qualifies as a short-term bearish play. We glanced at the point- and-figure chart only to find the stock in a terrible down trend with a current bearish price objective of $14.00. We are not aiming quite that low. Actually, this is should be a very quick bearish play to capitalize on the breakdown before the stock bounces back which it has a habit of doing. We'll start the play with a stop at 25.01, which is a little bit wider than we would prefer. Our target is $20.00. Furthermore, if LFG trades to $20.00 intraday we'll close the play. Aggressive traders can look for a bounce and failed rally back up to $25.00 as a potential entry point. The rest of us should confirm the stock's position below $24.00. If don't realize our goal in two or three days we'll probably drop the stock and move on. Keep one eye on the insurance index as well. Even though LFG appears to be ignoring in the strength in the sector, any strong moves higher in the group could make our bearish play more risky. Picked on November 27th at $23.74 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 10/24 (confirmed) =============== AT Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- General Electric - GE - close: 41.07 change: -0.25 stop: 39.90 There isn't much new to report on GE. The stock continues to trade sideways with overhead resistance at $41.80. Considering the triple digit loss in the DJIA today shares of GE held up pretty well. If you're willing to admit a bullish bias then the 30 minute chart with the 15-dma on it could paint a potentially bullish break upward in a couple of days. But this bias needs to be supported by higher lows so watch GE to hold the $40.50 level. If it doesn't we would probably turn neutral or even bearish as the stock will start to look more and more tired. Picked on November 8th at $40.10 Gain since picked: +0.97 Earnings Date 10/24 (confirmed) -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Panamerican Bev Inc - PB - close: 14.49 change: -0.01 stop: 15.11 So far so good. Bearish traders enjoyed a follow through move from Friday's close under $15.00 to Monday's low of $14.00. The stock bounced back to $14.50 by the closing bell. On Tuesday, bears were probably hoping for another move down with the decline in the Dow, and PB fulfilled their request early on but again bounced back to the $14.50 area. With a lack of news on the stock we decided to look at another stock in this group, CCE. CCE fell 2.79% today and close below its 200-dma. The bad news was its bounce off its 50-dma. The prevailing short-term trend for both stocks is now negative but shorts are going to be looking for a close under $14.00 for PB. The good news on PB was its close under $14.50. Confirm market direction before you start any new plays. Remember that we're looking for an exit at $13.25 but if shares can't break $14 we may adjust our exit later in the week. We will leave ours top at $15.11 from Monday's newsletter. Picked on November 23rd at $14.95 Gain since picked: +0.46 Earnings Date 10/30 (confirmed) ================================================================== High Risk / High Reward (HR) section ================================================================== ============ HR New Plays ============ ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Visionics Corp - VSNX - close: 11.95 change: -0.30 stop: 12.56 Company Description Visionics Corporation is the worldwide leader in identification technologies and systems. The Company is uniquely positioned with a comprehensive set of biometric identification product offerings: FaceIt®, live scan, IBIS and BNP. The award-winning core FaceIt® technology enables a broad range of products and applications built by partners (OEMs, VARs and system integrators). These include enhanced CCTV systems, identity fraud applications and identity verification systems for physical and network security, travel and banking. The TENPRINTER and FingerPrinter CMS live scan systems are the most widely used by government agencies, law enforcement, airports, banks and other commercial institutions in the US. IBIS is a revolutionary mobile identification system capable of capturing both forensic quality fingerprints and photographs for transmission and wireless transmitting the data to law enforcement and other legacy databases for real-time identification. Finally, the BNP is the only commercially available platform for delivering scalable biometric solutions. It incorporates FaceIt® technology for implementation over large-scale networks and real-time identification. The product offerings are reflective of Visionics' leadership position in the biometric industry and commitment to the innovation of identification technologies. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: There is no doubt that the 9-11 attacks and the new interest in airport security will drum up new business for VSNX. However, if we interpret investor sentiment as described by its price action, it looks like that interest in its products may take some time to turn into sales and that makes the stock still prone to more profit taking from its panic-induced run up. We highlighted VSNX on the PremierInvestor.net Watch List over the weekend. The stock attempted another rally bouncing off support on Monday but failed at its 10-dma (again). Today's move put the stock below crucial support at $12.00. Traders can see from the Nov. 19th low that there is some support at $11.00. However, the current trend is very negative and we feel VSNX could trade to $10. We'll start the play with a stop at its 10-dma of 12.56. However, more conservative traders could try and sneak by with a stop over today's high. Aggressive traders can look for entry points below the 10-dma but the rest of us should probably confirm the stock's position below $12 before initiating a position. We placed VSNX on the high risk/high reward section because shares are currently trading near its long-term bullish support line on its point-and-figure chart. Plus, the stock has achieved its initial bearish price target but that doesn't mean it couldn't fall further. Picked on November 27th at $11.95 Gain since picked: +0.00 Earnings Date 11/14 (confirmed) =============== HR Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Acclaim Entertainment - AKLM - close: 5.93 change: -0.03 stop: 5.49 Bullish traders who are looking for an entry point should keep their eyes focused on AKLM. The stock has produced a soft pull back so far and only lost three cents in Tuesday's dip. If the Nasdaq pulls back to 1900 or the GSO.X software index pulls back to 170 then AKLM could dip to $5.75 to $5.60. These levels could offer a premium entry point to go long with a lower exposure considering our current stop. The trick would be to look for a potential bounce up in these areas. A more conservative trader who prefers to see the breakout can wait for shares to close back above $6.00 or more specifically the $6.15 level. Picked on November 23rd at $ 6.00 Gain since picked: -0.03 Earnings Date 10/24 (confirmed) --- SBA Communications - SBAC - cls: 12.99 chg: +1.29 stop: 12.49*new* If you're looking for strength in a down market then SBAC has delivered. Shares broke out above the $12 level around 10:20 AM ET this morning and didn't look back. The 11% move today puts Premier at +$2.33 or +21.8% since we picked it on Nov. 16th. Those traders who took advantage of the dip last week have an even better move. There was nothing in the news that could have fueled today's rise. It looks like potential short covering. Mr. Bailey and I were discussing this play tonight and he was estimating that if SBAC follows through on the breakout tomorrow it could trade to $14.25 to $14.50. This may be so but I'm sticking to our exit point of $13.90, which is 10 cents below the $14 resistance level SBAC had back in late August and most of September. We've raised our stop to $12.49 to protect the lion's share of our current gains (or about 17%). Picked on November 16th at $10.66 Gain since picked: +2.33 Earnings Date 11/13 (confirmed) --- TMP Worldwide - TMPW - close: 42.01 change: -1.99 stop: 39.95 There is always somebody willing to rain on your parade. Robertson Stephens downgraded TMPW this morning from a "buy" to a "market perform". Stephens' analyst claims that TMPW is fairly valued and weak hiring and recruitment trends will pressure revenues. After TMPW's 8% gain yesterday we expected a little pull back but the downgrade had shares gapping lower. Fortunately, the stock found some support at $40.50 and traded higher off its lows. Shares could pull back to $40 if the tech sector dips again on Wednesday. If TMPW bounces at $40 we'd consider new long positions, especially considering our current stop. Confirm stock and market direction before committing new capital. Premier is currently up 5.9% or 2.37 points. Picked on November 21st at $39.64 Gain since picked: +2.37 Earnings Date 11/15 (confirmed) -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Intrado Inc - TRDO - close: 26.85 change: -0.75 stop: 28.61 Our new bearish play is slowly creeping lower. The short-term trend of lower highs and lower lows is setting up for a breakdown below the $26 level. If this occurs we would expect TRDO to trade to $25 and $24 in the couple of days following. We're still aiming for the $22.50 level and we're encouraged by the higher volume on today's decline. If you're looking for new positions we would consider anything under $28.00 to $27.50 worth evaluating and more conservative traders might be able to get away with a stop just north of $28. The newsletter will leave its stop at 28.61 for now. Confirm stock and market direction before playing. Picked on November 23rd at $27.23 Gain since picked: +0.38 Earnings Date 10/25 (confirmed) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. --------------------------------- Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change HI Household Intl. Inc. 60.76 +0.58 CVC Cablevision Systems 41.70 +1.40 SV Stilwell Financial Inc 24.68 +0.57 UDS Ultramar Diamond Shamrock 49.15 +0.65 AVX Avx Corp 20.80 +0.95 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change TMCS Ticketmaster Online 16.96 +1.26 CKFR Checkfree Corp 17.15 +1.93 RHAT Red Hat Inc 7.62 +1.61 INFA Informatica Corp 13.57 +1.22 NSIT Insight Enterprises Inc 19.98 +1.28 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change AMAT Applied Materials Inc 41.97 +1.91 VRTS Veritas Software Corp 41.70 +2.11 JBL Jabil Circuit Inc 27.78 +1.08 SFA Scientific-Atlanta Inc 27.53 +1.86 SCI Sci Systems Inc 27.21 +1.11 CEPH Cephalon Inc 70.62 +1.52 ----------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change HD Home Depot Inc 43.35 -2.17 LH Laboratory Corp 77.40 -3.50 TOY Toys R Us Inc 21.76 -1.02 STE Steris Corp 20.98 -1.52 JBX Jack In The Box Inc 26.83 -1.13 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- HD Home Depot 43.35 -2.17 EL Estee Lauder Cos. 33.25 -0.13 CPO Corn Products Intl 31.53 -0.96 USFC US Freightways Corp 34.37 -0.69 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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