Option Investor
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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 11/28/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 11-28-2001
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      How much company stock do you own?
Play-of-the-Day:  It's Back and It Looks Ugly
Watch List:       TXN, NTAP, CSCO, JDSU, MSFT, BVSN, CPQ, LXK, 
                  ATK, CELG, BRCD, GS
Market Sentiment: When it rains, it pours

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      11-28-2001          High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9711.86 -160.74  9867.20  9706.61 1.41 bln   1069/1289
NASDAQ   1887.97 - 48.00  1941.79  1887.97 1.87 bln   2078/2365
S&P 100   578.92 - 11.91   590.83   578.69   Totals   3147/3654
S&P 500  1128.52 - 20.98  1149.50  1128.29
RUS 2000  453.70 -  7.01   460.71   453.70
DJ TRANS 2457.95 - 51.35  2508.52  2457.95
VIX        27.84 +  2.63    27.91    26.09
VXN        52.21 +  2.94    52.37    49.53
TRIN        2.57
Put/Call    0.66
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

How much company stock do you own?

If you have a retirement account with your employer, make a note 
to yourself to pull out your account statement in 1-hour and look 
at the account.  (Stop reading this right now and make a note to 
yourself to look at your employer sponsored retirement account).  
Does you're employer offer a stock purchase program where you 
have great financial exposure to the company stock?  If anywhere 
over 15-20% of the account value or money put toward the stock, 
are you going to be able to retire if that portion of the account 
were to be worth 61-cents a share?

Enron Corporation Chart -




The most important thing I can do today for subscribers is to 
point out the flaw of having more that 15-20% of your retirement 
funds in the company stock.  Enron's (ENE) employees aren't the 
only stock or situation we've seen this happen to.

Where's one-time furniture giant Levitz Furniture?  Bankrupt 
that's where.  The stock was listed on the New York Stock 
exchange not all that long ago, and they went bankrupt.  

Have you ever heard of luggage maker Samsonite (NASDAQ:SAMC) 
$1.65?  In October of 1997, Samsonite (SAMC) was trading at the 
$50 level.  Right now the company is appealing NASDAQ's decision 
to delist its stock because of the declining market 
capitalization.  What is disturbing is that the bulk of the 
decline from $50 to $10 came during one of the most powerful bull 
market periods in history.

Silicon Graphics (NYSE:SGI $2.32) employees that have bet their 
retirement account in the stock for the past 5-years must feel 
fortunate.  They can't be feeling rich.  This one's fallen from 
the $45 level back in 1995 to as low as $0.31 this past 
September.  A systematic investment each month for the past five 
years has their average cost at $11.17.  Again... this one 
declines drastically during an extremely bullish market 
environment.

Don't say this!

"I have to keep buying my full allocation so I can reduce my cost 
basis in the stock."  If you say/think the previous sentence, go 
back up to the chart of ENE, or SAMC, or SGI, or SUNW, or 
CSCO.....  You get the picture.  While these stocks may 
eventually recover and achieve new all-time highs, if they don't 
and you're holding more than 15% of your retirement in them, then 
we'd all better hope that social security provides the safety net 
that will most desperately be needed.

Now the markets!

Stocks got a good dose of selling today as the broader market 
averages finished in negative territory.  Hardest hit sectors 
were the Fiber Optic Index (FOP.X) -9.0%, Internet (INX.X) -6.9%, 
Airline (XAL.X) -6.3%, Networking (NWX.X) -4.8%, Broker/Dealer 
(XBD.X) -4.84% and Semiconductor (SOX.X) -4.7%.

Sector strength was found in the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 
+1.24%, but I think this was profit taking by sector bears after 
a recent decline and consolidation that occurred late last week.  
Resistance for this sector should be pretty firm in the $54-$55 
range and with the XAU.X trading $52.09, I'm not looking to get 
involved (up or down) right now.

Bonds were perhaps the most interesting action today.  Early in 
the session we saw some firm buying here.  What was interesting 
is how the longer-end of the bond market did find selling from 
about 01:00 EST into the close at 03:00 EST.  The 30-year YIELD 
($TYX.X) fell as low as 5.309% (result of buying), but sellers 
came in late in the session and YIELD finished unchanged on the 
session at 5.362%.  Almost the same thing for the 10-year YIELD 
($TNX.X), which dipped to the 4.84% level, only to see sellers 
come in and get the yield back near the 4.946% level by sessions 
end.  While this is a very short-term observation, this is 
exactly what equity bulls want to see happen.  This fits our 
bullish scenario for buying some strong stocks on pullbacks if 
the longer end of the bond market can hang in there around 
current levels.

The shorter end of the bond market and the 13-week ($IRX.X) 
didn't see the same amount of selling into its close.  However, 
the action in the 5-year YIELD was fascinating.  I pointed this 
out in today's "market monitor" on OptionInvestor.com when the 
YIELD on the 5-year was sitting right at retracement of 4.187%.  
We wanted to take notes on action there and see if other bond 
market participants were trading that level.  Today's action 
there sure looked like it.

5-year YIELD Chart




Traders that are trying to keep track of money flows are watching 
the bond market.  I've shown the above chart on a 60-minute 
interval just to show how closely that 4.187% YIELD level was 
traded today.  From here, an equity bear has the feeling he wants 
to see a break below the 4.187% level as a sign that money 
continues to rotate away from stocks.  The 5-year YIELD should be 
considered "safer" than that of the 10-year or 30-year.  Today, 
this action hints that today's lower stock prices was very much 
"profit taking" related as losses in the market averages really 
outpaced any type of gain in Treasury bond prices.  Remember... 
YIELD moves higher with selling in bonds and visa versa.

Hypothetical Dow Portfolio with $1,000 investment at Sept.10




A couple of things to point out in the Dow Industrials today.  
For the most part, selling was distributed relatively evenly 
between the upper 15 and bottom 15 stocks (-$252.39 and -
$225.96).  Two of our upper 15 stocks in Citigroup (NYSE:C) and 
J.P. Morgan (NYSE:JPM) suffered the largest losses.  The reason 
for this action is that analysts believe both of these stocks 
have some risk exposure to Enron (NYSE:ENE).  It is currently 
very uncertain to many just how much, or what kind of risk.  Many 
market participants are busy crunching numbers to try and figure 
out just what kind of exposure they have, if they're hedged or 
just what is at play here.  I think much of today's action in 
Citigroup and JPM was the old "when in doubt, get out" type of 
decision making.  Early numbers thrown out were that there may be 
risk of $0.05 to $0.10 a share earnings of risk.  Again... 
there's a lot of number crunching going on right now and it may 
be weeks before anything certain is known.

General Electric (NYSE:GE) $39.35 -4.18% on the day.  Subscribers 
should be stopped out of our bullish play here as profiled at 
$39.90(see play update).  We had profiled as bullish on November 
6th for trade at $40.10 and turned actionable on September 8th.  
I don't like the $0.20 a share loss we took, but do like the 
trade management used.  We gave GE every chance and it just 
couldn't carry the weight. (see today's 01:30 update on market 
view regarding GE).

AT&T (NYSE:T) $17.35 +3.08%.  Stock is bucking the trend again, 
something similar we saw back in late September when stock ran 
from $17 to $20 in just 8 sessions.  Today's action has me 
thinking that shorts used today's broader market weakness to 
cover.  Stock is battling both its 200-day moving average and 50-
day moving average.  Retracement resistance is at $17.79.  If the 
stock clears that level, we might see a run higher.  Remember, 
this stock was up in the top 3 of our hypothetical Dow portfolio 
back in late September. (see Sept. 27th and 28th market wrap).

Another thing to watch for in AT&T is same thing we were looking 
for in shares of Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) last night.  RELATIVE 
STRENGTH reversal.  Last night we thought a trade at $46 might 
have MDT showing gains in RS on its p/f chart to a reading of 
39RS.  Boy did we get that today.  RS reading for MDT is now 
40.57 vs. SPX (Shares of MDT gained 3.95% to close at $45.78 
today and the stock did trade $46.14).  This action has the stock 
back on a buy signal on its point/figure chart and above bearish 
resistance.  Longer-term trend is now positive. (see last night's 
market wrap).

Back to AT&T (NYSE:T) and why I like bullish on break above 
$17.80.  RELATIVE STRENGTH potential reversal on such a trade.  

Relative Strength Chart AT&T vs. S&P 500




Believe it or not, the RS chart of T vs. the SPX is much stronger 
than that found last night in shares of Medtronic (NYSE:MDT).  In 
Medtronic's RS chart, RS was on a "sell signal" (O column had 
exceeded a previous O column) and still in a column of O's.  What 
we see in AT&T's RS chart is that RS in on a "buy signal" (X 
column exceeded a previous column of X), but currently in a 
column of O's.  A reversal to the 15.50 (not the stock price, but 
the RS level) would have RS back in a bullish phase.  I've tried 
to color the arrows as a "phase" as it relates to some 
terminology.

I will point out, that this is something I've picked up on 
recently in Cendant (NYSE:CD) at $14.84 on 11/14/01 when RS had 
just reversed into X's.  Yesterday evening we thought a shift in 
RS back into X's might occur in Medtronic (NYSE:MDT).  Tonight 
we're noticing the same potential in AT&T (NYSE:T).  Here's how 
we now set up a bullish trade for T near-term.

AT& T Chart -




If I were short AT&T at $19.26, then I'd have my stop set just 
above $17.59 and 61.8% retracement.  I wouldn't want to risk a 
move to $19.26, let alone $20.94.  It's this type of thinking 
that has me looking bullish on AT&T near-term.  I like MACD 
trending higher and so close to getting above the zero level.  I 
like the action in the stock recently at $15 and the ability for 
the stock to hold that level for the 4th time.  I like the 
converging 50-day and 200-day MA's that are most likely being 
watched by market participants and what a break above these 
moving averages could have other market participants doing near-
term (buying the stock).  I like the fact that the relative 
strength chart is so close to turning back into a column of X's.  
I like the risk/reward scenario that plays against a bear on the 
break above $17.59.  In essence, there's a lot of things I like 
in a bullish trade in shares of AT&T, but I want to see the stock 
prove its worth with a trade at $17.80.  

Whew!  

It's getting late, but a lot to write about.  Don't forget to 
check your 401-k statement to make sure you're not too heavily 
weighted in the company stock!  Even if it is AT&T.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================

Pharmaceutical Product Development
- PPDI - close: 22.87 change: -1.60 stop: 24.05

Company Description
As a leading global provider of discovery and development 
services and products for pharmaceutical and biotechnology 
companies, PPD applies innovative technologies, therapeutic 
expertise and a commitment to quality to help clients maximize 
the return on their R&D investments. With proven early discovery 
through post-market resources, the company also offers unique 
partnerships and alliances for virtual drug development. PPD has 
more than 4,300 professionals in 20 countries around the world. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
It's back.  We previously tried to short PPDI earlier in 
November.  Initially the stock moved our direction but the 
broader market bullishness a couple of weeks ago turned the stock 
around.  This time shares of PPDI have failed at critical support 
between $24.00 and $23.70.  The move down today came on volume of 
1.3 million versus the average of just 809K.  Our initial target 
is $20.00 or 12.5% but the point-and-figure chart says PPDI could 
go a lot lower than that.  Believe it or not the bearish price 
objective is south of $10.  However, the intraday low back in 
September was $19.40, which could act as support.  Taking a 
closer look at today's trading on the intraday chart and one can 
see how a lot of volume came in at the close.  The way the stock 
dropped they must have been all sell orders.  Both the HCX.X and 
the DRG.X have been in the red two days in a row and the bears 
may have control for the next few sessions.  PPDI's MACD has 
recently turned bearish again.  Initially we will use a stop at 
$24.05 but if PPDI keeps falling we'll be quick to adjust it 
lower.  

Picked on November 28th at $22.87 
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date               10/16 (confirmed)






==========
Watch List
==========

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

----------

Texas Instruments - TXN - close: 31.03 change: -1.55

WHAT TO WATCH:  The SOX fell 25 points or 4.7% to 511 in Wednesday's
session.  TXN shared its pain and slipped 4.75%.  If the SOX falls
below the 500 level it would break the ascending bullish support line
of the current trend.  This in turn could lead TXN below the $30 
support level.  If that where to occur TXN could see profit taking
to $27.00 or $26.50.  What makes TXN look weaker than many of
the chip sector is the trouble the stock has had with its 200-dma
this past month.  This last week has shown TXN failing at its 200-dma
again and the MACD is negative.  




---

Network Appliance - NTAP - close: 14.67 change: -1.34

WHAT TO WATCH:  This computer network company's stock has also been
struggling with its 200-dma this past month.  However, shares had
been holding support at the $15.00 level with a brief intraday dip
below it on 11/21.  That was until today.  Shares have closed below
$15.00 and the 15-dma is now acting as short-term overhead resistance.
We would watch for NTAP to trade below $14 and then evaluate a new
short position.  Look for support at its 50-dma or $12.50.




---

Cisco Systems Inc - CSCO - close: 18.88 change: -0.82

WHAT TO WATCH:  Whether a play develops or not, people will be 
watching the king of networking stocks for direction and leadership
or weakness.  The stock is starting to look weak and if shares
close or trade below its 200-dma at 18.50, which is also a minor
level of price support, then tech bears could pounce again.  There
is a lot of congestion between $18 and $16 but it is $16 that
represents strong support.




---

JDS Uniphase - JDSU - close: 10.12 change: -1.12

WHAT TO WATCH:  If traders are selling networking stocks then
the fiber optic group can be far behind.  Actually, they are 
probably leaders to the downside.  Many in this group have seen
very strong rallies in the last few weeks and are very vulnerable
to more profit taking.  JDSU fell almost 10% today and there
could be more to come.  The $10 level is the trigger point to
watch.  It is a critical support level and if it trades or closes
below it shares of JDSU could see profit taking to $9.00, $8.50
(its 50-dma) or $8.00.  




---

Microsoft Corp - MSFT - close: 62.80 change: -0.94

WHAT TO WATCH:  Another big cap traders will be watching for
leadership one way or the other is Microsoft.  The GSO.X software
index is poised just above its 170 support level and MSFT is
barely holding above its 200-dam (62.73).  A breakdown here in
MSFT could lead the entire sector lower.  The bad news is the
recent trend of lower highs for MSFT.  The stock could find some
support at $60 or $58 and its 50-dma is near $59.  The short-term
bearish crossover of its 5-dma through its 15-dma is not a good
sign.




---

BroadVision Inc. - BVSN - close: 3.25 change: -0.46

WHAT TO WATCH:  Losing over 12% today show how fast this stock
can move when traders decide to put some of the recent profits
back in their pocket.  Technically a "software" company, many
view BVSN as an Internet play due to its e-business applications.
The close below its 10-dma looks pretty negative and we think 
BVSN has risk to $2.50, its nearest level of strong support.
Only aggressive players should consider shorting this one as
the stock tends to move quickly (percentage wise).




---

Compaq Computer - CPQ - close: 9.06 change: -0.46

WHAT TO WATCH:  We haven't been following the HWP-CPQ merger
deal but last we heard the Hewletts and the Packards were not
excited about merging with CPQ.  Traders should realize that
CPQ's stock will trade in relation to HWP's.  As expected both
look pretty identical in their pattern.  The benefit in trading
CPQ is the larger percentage moves.  HWP is poised at the $20
level and appears like it could fall through it.  Similarly,
CPQ is barely trading above $9.00 and did close below its 50-dma.
If they breakdown, then CPQ could fall to $8.00 or $7.50, which
would make for a nice return.




---

Lexmark Intl. Inc - LXK - close: 47.93 change: -2.39

WHAT TO WATCH:  Shares of LXK mark have been stuck in a four 
month trading range between $52.50 and $41.00.  Fortunately,
it looks like that range is narrowing between $51 and $43.
This narrowing pattern could continue but in the meantime
active traders could try and catch the waves between them.
With today's 4.74% loss it looks like LXK could trade down
to the $44 level for a 10% move.  Look for confirmation.




---

Alliant Tech Systems - ATK - close: 79.90 change: -1.10

WHAT TO WATCH:  We seriously thought about playing this one
as a bearish play today.  Everyone can see the huge profit
taking from early November above $90 to support at $74.50
near the 15th of the month.  However, since then the stock has
rallied right to its 50-dma and 15-dma's which have since 
acted as resistance.  The stock has continued to fail at each
rally attempt and Wednesday's breakdown below $80.00 could
foretell the next leg down to $74.50 again.  We would consider
a stop above the 15-dma.




---

Celgene Corp - CELG - close: 35.16 change: -2.51

WHAT TO WATCH:  We've highlighted CELG more than once on the
watch list but this time it is for a potential bearish play.
The stock is looking tired and the MACD has made a long slow
arc and rolled over into a negative trend.  Shares bounced
at $34 as they did earlier this month and this is the level
to watch.  If shares fall under today's low (33.75) traders
might be able to capture a move to $30.00.




---

Brocade Communication - BRCD - close: 28.82 change: -3.02

WHAT TO WATCH:  BRCD was another stock we seriously considered
for a bearish play tonight.  The stock has failed two days in
a row at its 200-dma and the breakdown today below $29 and its
15-dma is very negative for the short-term time frame.  We think
it could trade down to the $25.00 level.  However, the unknown
is how investors will react to its Q4 earnings report that 
came out after the bell today.  The estimates were for four
cents a shares and BRCD reported five cents.




---

Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 86.81 change: -3.19

WHAT TO WATCH:  We picked GS merely because fell below its 200-dma
and recent support at the 87.50 level.  One could probably pick
any large brokerage to follow for a potential bearish play.  
More than one analyst feels that these stocks are over-extended 
and need to pull back and consolidate.  While almost all of these
stocks look weak most of them have support less than 10% from
current levels.  Traders can look at BSC, LEH, MWD and MER for
potential moves.






================
Market Sentiment
================

When it rains, it pours
by Russ Moore

When it rains, it pours. The "negative news clouds" opened up on 
Wall Street today, and that had investors scurrying for cover. 

The collapse of the Enron/Dynegy merger had investors pushing the 
sell button on financial stocks. Adding insult to injury was the 
release of the Fed’s Beige book. The report on economic 
conditions noted further economic weakness in most regions during 
October and early November. The double dose of negative news sent 
the markets on a ride in the red with the DOW dropping -1.6 
percent, the NASDAQ -2.5 percent, and the NDX -3.3 percent.

Volume was decent with 1.39 billion shares moving on the NYSE 
(may have been a few Enron shares mixed in there), and 1.87 
billion shares changing hands on the tech index. Market breadth 
was negative as losers surpassed winners by a 21/11 margin on the 
big board and a 24/13 count on the NASDAQ.

Broader markets saw airline, financial, brokerage and natural gas 
sectors take the heaviest hit while tech action had chips and 
networkers off sharply. The only sector to post a green arrow was 
that old “safe haven”, gold.

Tomorrow will see a few economic reports including initial 
claims, new home sales, and October durable goods orders. 
Investors will be looking for continued signs of stabilization 
within the jobless claims numbers. A negative surprise in that 
data could make it three down days in a row.


VIX 
Wednesday 11/28 close: 27.84


VXN
Wednesday 11/28 close: 52.21


30-yr Bonds
Wednesday 11/28 close: 5.36


Total Put/Call Ratio: .75


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .69


Index Option Put/Call Ratio:  1.19


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 38.75

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/148,169
Maximum puts : 40/104,776

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 39
 20 DMA 38
 50 DMA 34
200 DMA 41

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 578.92

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 600/4,301
Maximum puts : 500/6,741
Moving Averages
 10 DMA  589
 20 DMA  579
 50 DMA  557
200 DMA  607

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1128.52

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/39,203
Maximum puts : 1100/44,277

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1143
 20 DMA 1125
 50 DMA 1085
200 DMA 1180

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,711.86

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 98/25,337
Maximum Puts   90/48,972

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,880
 20 DMA  9,677
 50 DMA  9,305
200 DMA 10,167

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 592.11

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 580/  791
Maximum Puts:  540/1,149

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 594
 20 DMA 580
 50 DMA 520
200 DMA 536

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 511.44

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/ 752
Maximum Puts:  470/1582

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 521
 20 DMA 512
 50 DMA 457
200 DMA 563

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 396.76

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 420/406
Maximum Puts:  360/320

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 396
 20 DMA 393
 50 DMA 390
200 DMA 392

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Monday, 11/26. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
11/06/01     376,807   416,063   (39,256)    8.2%
11/13/01     381,539   421,284   (39,745)    1.2%
11/20/01     369,784   415,822   (46,038)   13.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
11/06/01       132,106    81,208    50,898    (2.7%)
11/13/01       136,047    87,645    48,402    (4.9%)
11/20/01       140,507    86,861    53,646     9.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
11/06/01      39,410    47,890    (8,480)  (37.0%)
11/13/01      38,751    49,257   (10,506)   23.9%
11/20/01      38,042    46,446    (8,404)  (20.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
11/06/01       11,406     8,143    3,263     (47.7%)
11/13/01       11,568     6,505    5,063      55.1%
11/20/01       12,933     8,230    4,703      (7.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
11/06/01      25,977    11,951   14,026      5.4%
11/13/01      24,145    10,204   13,941     (0.6%)
11/20/01      25,033    11,525   13,508     (3.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
11/06/01       3,569    12,281    (8,712)     25.2%
11/13/01       4,094    12,121    (8,027)     (7.8%)
11/20/01       3,609    10,565    (6,956)    (13.3%)
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +53,646     +48,402        -46,038     -39,745

Total Open
Interest %       (+23.59%)  (+21.64%)      (-5.86%)   (-4.95%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -6,956     -8,027          +13,508    13,941
Total Open
interest %       (-49.07%)    (-49.50%)      (+36.94%)  (+40.59)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +4,703      +5,063         -8,404    -10,506

Total Open
Interest %        (+22.22%)   (+28.01%)     (-9.95%) (-11.94%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Commercial players finally moved off of their four-week 
holding period as they added to their net-short positions. The 
increase was limited to less than a percentage point; 
nonetheless, it does show that the Commercials have not yet moved 
in to a full-blown accumulation phase (bullish) and would appear 
to be playing a cautious hand.

Gold: November has not been kind to the XAU (gold and silver 
index), however, Commercial players have reduced their net-short 
contracts to near flat and that could signal a bounce in gold is 
around the corner.

10/23 25,191 contracts net-short
10/30 33,199 contracts net-short
11/06 35,435 contracts net-short
11/13 23,637 contracts net-short
11/20  2,489 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 11/20 by the CFTC.




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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Wednesday 11-28-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
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charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/1299_2.asp
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In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Play:      QCOM
  Closed Bullish Plays:  CBR

StockBottom/Active Trader
  New Bearish Play:      PPDI
  Stop Adjsutments:      PB
  Closed Bullish Plays:  GE

High Risk/Reward
  Stop Adjustments:      TRDO
  Closed Bullish Plays:  SBAC, TMPW

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  --------------------
  New Bearish Plays
  --------------------

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 57.29 change: -2.73 stop: 60.61

Company Description
QUALCOMM Incorporated is a leader in developing and delivering 
innovative digital wireless communications products and services 
based on the Company's CDMA digital technology. The Company's 
business areas include CDMA chipsets and system software; 
technology licensing; the Binary Runtime Environment for Wireless
(TM) (BREW(TM)) applications platform; Eudora® e-mail software; 
digital cinema systems; and satellite-based systems including 
portions of the Globalstar(TM) system and wireless fleet 
management systems, OmniTRACS® and OmniExpress®. QUALCOMM owns 
patents that are essential to all of the CDMA wireless 
telecommunications standards that have been adopted or proposed 
for adoption by standards-setting bodies worldwide. QUALCOMM has 
licensed its essential CDMA patent portfolio to more than 100 
telecommunications equipment manufacturers worldwide. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We like QCOM as a short-term bearish play due to its technical 
breakdown of support at $60 this week and its 200-dma that 
occurred on Wednesday.  This is more of a technical play than any 
fundamental reason to short the stock.  Shares produced a nice 
run up from $49.00 to $62.50 in November and a 50% retracement 
would only put the bearish target near $55 - $56.  However, 
QCOM's legendary volatility could bring the stock back to its 50-
dma which is currently resting near $51.  Thus our target for the 
stock is $51.00.  The MACD just produced a bearish crossover 
today and the point-and-figure chart shows QCOM on a fresh column 
of O's.  Be prepared for some support at $55.  We are going to 
start the play with a stop just over today's high at $60.61.  If 
QCOM shows weakness early on and trades down from there then more 
conservative traders may be able to put a stop just over $58.55.  
Adjust your stop accordingly.

Picked on November 28th at $57.29 
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date               11/06 (confirmed)






===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Ciber Inc - CBR - close: 7.40 change: -0.34 stop: 7.51 

All the negative news in the markets was too much for shares of 
CBR to handle and the stock slid back just over 4% today.  The 
stock tried to find support at the $7.41 level and traded there 
through most of the day.  We were stopped out at 7.51 for a 5% 
gain early in the session.  If the tech sectors continue to pull 
back throughout this week we could see CBR pull back to the $7.10 
to $7.00 level.  More aggressive traders may want to watch this 
area for a bounce if the Nasdaq can redefine new support soon.  
Longer-term bulls could look for a pull back to $6.50 but if it 
fell below $7.00 we would be very cautious.  Hopefully the GSO.X 
software index can hold support at 170.  The GSO fell 5.75 points 
to 171 today.

Picked on November 23rd at $ 7.15 
Gain since picked:          +0.36
Earnings Date               10/29 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

  --------------------
  New Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Pharmaceutical Product Development
- PPDI - close: 22.87 change: -1.60 stop: 24.05

Company Description
As a leading global provider of discovery and development 
services and products for pharmaceutical and biotechnology 
companies, PPD applies innovative technologies, therapeutic 
expertise and a commitment to quality to help clients maximize 
the return on their R&D investments. With proven early discovery 
through post-market resources, the company also offers unique 
partnerships and alliances for virtual drug development. PPD has 
more than 4,300 professionals in 20 countries around the world. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
It's back.  We previously tried to short PPDI earlier in 
November.  Initially the stock moved our direction but the 
broader market bullishness a couple of weeks ago turned the stock 
around.  This time shares of PPDI have failed at critical support 
between $24.00 and $23.70.  The move down today came on volume of 
1.3 million versus the average of just 809K.  Our initial target 
is $20.00 or 12.5% but the point-and-figure chart says PPDI could 
go a lot lower than that.  Believe it or not the bearish price 
objective is south of $10.  However, the intraday low back in 
September was $19.40, which could act as support.  Taking a 
closer look at today's trading on the intraday chart and one can 
see how a lot of volume came in at the close.  The way the stock 
dropped they must have been all sell orders.  Both the HCX.X and 
the DRG.X have been in the red two days in a row and the bears 
may have control for the next few sessions.  PPDI's MACD has 
recently turned bearish again.  Initially we will use a stop at 
$24.05 but if PPDI keeps falling we'll be quick to adjust it 
lower.  

Picked on November 28th at $22.87 
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date               10/16 (confirmed)




===================
AT Stop Adjustments
===================

Bearish Plays
-------------

PB - close: 13.95 change: -0.54 stop: 14.65 *new*

PB's 3.72% drop today placed it below key support level of 
$14.00.  We are lowering our stop to today's high.  Don't
forget that we'll close the play when PB trades to $13.25.



===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

General Electric - GE - close: 39.35 change: -1.72 stop: 39.90 

Only two of the 30 Dow components managed to close in the green 
today.  The Enron fiasco had investors and analysts concerned 
about its repercussions throughout the capital markets.  Plus 
some negative comments from JPM about GE's power-systems division 
didn't help any.  The one-two punch had shares of GE gapping 
lower at the open to $40.25 and trading down from there.  We were 
quickly stopped out at 39.90 for a 20-cent loss.  We mentioned in 
Tuesday's update that we were growing cautious on GE and planned 
to drop it soon if we didn't see some confirmation of a bullish 
trend.  It appears the bears decided to spare us the anguish and 
the breakdown under $40 is very negative for GE's stock price 
(and the DJIA in general).  

Picked on November 8th at $40.10
Gain since picked:         -0.20
Earnings Date              10/24 (confirmed)






==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===================
HR Stop Adjustments
===================

Bearish Plays
-------------

TRDO - close: 25.25 change: -1.59 stop: 27.51 *new*

Our play of the day for Wednesday performed well with a 5.95% 
move.  The stock could have support at $25.00 but the prevailing
trend is very negative.  We're still aiming for $22.50.
However, we are lowering our stop to $27.51.  More conservative
traders could try today's high instead.


===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

SBA Communications - SBAC - cls: 12.41 chg: -0.58 stop: 12.49

Those of you who follow the high risk/high reward section 
probably already know that we have been stopped out of SBAC.  
Shares traded lower with the tech sectors in retreat and we were 
stopped out at $12.49 for a 17% gain.  We find it interesting 
that SBAC briefly dipped to 12.02 and then bounced back to the 
12.30 level which it held the rest of the day.  If SBAC can hold 
the $12 level in this market pull back that may be a good area to 
watch for potential new long play entries.  We would watch for 
the Nasdaq to redefine support first but SBAC could return to the 
play list.

Picked on November 16th at $10.66 
Gain since picked:          +1.83
Earnings Date               11/13 (confirmed)




---

TMP Worldwide - TMPW - close: 39.92 change: -2.09 stop: 39.95

TMPW tried, it really tried.  While many tech stocks simply 
gapped down or traded lower near the open this morning, TMPW 
slowly drifted lower before finally giving up the $40 support 
level and stopping us out at 39.95 near the end of the day.  
Shares actually held the 10-dma (39.85) but with the current 
developments in the Nasdaq we would look for TMPW to fall to 
support near $37.50.  

Picked on November 21st at $39.64 
Gain since picked:          +0.31
Earnings Date               11/15 (confirmed)






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SZA     Suiza Foods Corp           59.81     +0.58
TAR     Telefonica De Argentina    13.90     +1.80
PDS     Precision Drilling Corp    22.50     +0.56

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ENDO    Endocare Inc               18.27     +1.77
CCRD    Concord Communications     17.90     +2.20
MEDC    Med-Design Corp            14.73     +1.53
PKTR    Packeteer Inc               6.15     +1.15
NASI    North American Scientific  15.93     +1.23

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MDT     Medtronic Inc              45.78     +1.74
DP      Diagnostic Products Corp   42.78     +1.23
UOPX    Univ. of Phoenix Online    29.55     +1.95

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

C       Citigroup                  47.80     -2.75
PHA     Pharmacia Corp             43.95     -2.56
JPM     J P Morgan Chase & Co      37.50     -2.30
LEH     Lehman Brothers            66.40     -4.75
EPG     El Paso Corp               44.91     -3.59
AEP     American Electric Power    40.44     -2.03

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 

MWD     Morgan Stanley Dean Witter  54.20     -3.55
MER     Merrill Lynch & Co          48.91     -3.03
FBF     Fleetboston Financial Corp  37.25     -0.64
PPG     PPG Industries Inc          53.10     -1.01
EK      Eastman Kodak Co            29.33     -0.65




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=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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