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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 11/29/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Thursday 11-29-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Frog hair
Market Sentiment: 60 Minutes
Play-of-the-Day:  $44.5 to more than $50 Billion

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       11-29-2001           High     Low    Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9829.42 +117.56  9829.42  9691.39  1.3 bln   1961/1155
NASDAQ   1933.25 + 45.28  2933.46  2889.29  1.9 bln   2271/1394
S&P 100   585.28 +  6.36   585.39   577.13   Totals   4232/2549
S&P 500  1140.20 + 11.68  1140.40  1125.51
RUS 2000  463.33 +  9.63   463.33   453.70
DJ TRANS 2485.60 + 27.65  2489.20  2459.56
VIX        26.26 -  1.49    28.56    25.89
VXN        48.95 -  3.26    53.27    48.95
TRIN        1.29
Put/Call Ratio       .78
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Frog hair

Did you know that a frog has hair?  Yep, you've got to look 
close, but it's there.  Not long ago we were talking about 
pennies as several stocks we had our eyes on were trading at 
$XX.99 levels and those pennies seemed like we were so close to 
some break-out levels and the MARKET seemed like it was really 
fine tuned.

A "frog's hair" is just how close the relative strength chart for 
AT&T vs. the S&P 500 Index is from getting back into that column 
of X's.  Tonight's reading came in at 15.456 and we need a 
reading of 15.50 (see last night's wrap) to get that chart back 
into a column of X's.  Bulls will want to watch T closely on a 
break above $17.80 near-term.

Tomorrow could be an exciting day and there might be some 
fireworks.  The reason I think this is that we saw a strong round 
of buying in the Treasury bond market as YIELDS were lower across 
the board.  This action would have had me thinking that stocks 
were going to suffer.

We did see lower stock prices early in the session, but stocks 
just seemed to creep higher as the day prolonged.  At about 2:45 
PM EST, just 15-minutes before the bond market's close, stocks 
pushed to intra-day highs and that seemed to turn on some "buy 
switches" at trading desks, or at least turn some "sell switches" 
off.  Stocks finished the session strong.

The reason I think there might be some "fireworks" tomorrow is 
that I think something has to give between stocks and bonds.  
Trim Tabs (www.trimtabs.com) is reporting that mutual fund 
liquidity fell for the period ending November 28th, with $3.4 
billion coming out of U.S. equity funds.  On November 14th in the 
"Market Wrap" we talked about an earlier Trim Tabs report 
discussing an alert regarding equity fund outflows and talked 
about how the bond market played into the cash liquidity 
situation.  At that time, the 10-year YIELD was trading with a 
YIELD at 4.515% and the S&P 500 was trading at $1,141.  Hey 
folks... tonight's close on the S&P 500 was $1,140.20.  There's 
that "frog's hair" once again.

Comparison of S&P 500 and 10-year YIELD




The "black boxes" in the lower left corners of the charts are 
pegged to the November 14th trading session.  Notice that the S&P 
500 Index (SPX.X) was trading $1,141.21 at the close of trading 
that day and today's close was $1,140.  Notice that YIELD on the 
10-year ($TNX.X) on November 14th was 4.515%, but today the YIELD 
is still higher at 4.756.  This tells me that the "liquidity 
concern" from Trim Tabs on November 14th was met by the selling 
in bonds from November 14th and the next seven session.

But stocks didn't budge (as characterized by the S&P 500).  Aha!  
Now I believe that the bond market and stock market are now in 
unison!  How did it get "out of unison?"  I think that 
announcement on October 31st "Treasury discontinues 30-year 
Treasury Auction" threw a wrench in the engine near-term and got 
things out of whack.

But wait!  While I may have discounted the "liquidity" concerns 
from November 14th as it sure looked like bond YIELDS were headed 
higher, I can't do that now.  Not if the bond and stock market is 
now in unison.

Tomorrow morning, the bond market opens an hour before stocks.  
We need to be watching bond YIELDS very closely.  If YIELDS are 
lower before stocks open for trading, I'm going to be leaning 
toward the bearish side for stocks.  I'm not going to dump my 
entire account of long positions (unless stops are triggered), 
but I'm not going to rush in and buy stocks if equity futures are 
higher by 1 point if bond YIELDS are lower.

What a trader also needs to be cognizant of is that you don't 
want to "over do" anything in your trading.  Be very disciplined.  
Don't get in the mindset that a stock can't move higher, even 
though bond YIELDS might be falling or visa versa.  Establish 
positions slowly.  If bond YIELDS are lower in the morning, don't 
feel like you need to short/put 5 stocks all at one time.  If 
YIELDS are lower when stocks open for trading, then perhaps 
short/put one stock.  Wait a couple of hours and see how things 
are working out.  Are YIELDS still falling?  If so, is the stock 
you shorted lower than when you shorted it?  If so, then you 
might look at shorting another stocks.

If YIELDS are higher in the morning, I really want to see some 
type of break above the recent 10-year YIELD high of 5.077% or 
have a very favorable risk/reward setup in a trade.  At these 
times, I prefer to trade listed stocks on the New York Stock 
Exchange (NYSE).

5-year YIELD

In last night's market wrap, we looked at a yield chart of the 5-
year YIELD ($FVX.X) and how it held the intra-day YIELD level at 
4.187%.  Today, that YIELD level didn't hold and there was enough 
buying there to drive the YIELD below 4.187%.  Now we have 
another level to monitor tomorrow morning and it's just a "frog 
hair" away from today's YIELD close.

5-year YIELD Chart - 




Last night we commented on how that 38.2% retracement level at 
YIELD of 4.187% on the 5-year YIELD acted as support for YIELD 
yesterday.  Today it didn't hold and I now comprehend that buyers 
in the 5-year are getting a little more aggressive than they were 
yesterday and that has me leaning toward a bearish trade tomorrow 
if I see YIELD slip below the 4.076% level.  The reason I'm 
watching 4.076% tomorrow is that this is where YIELD found 
sellers on November 20th?  Why?  I don't know.  All I know is 
that there were sellers were more aggressive than buyers on that 
day.

This now creates the "pivot" and that's why I think we could have 
some fireworks tomorrow.  If the bond market is willing to buy 
this bond with a YIELD below the 4.07% level to 3.9% or even all 
the way back down to 3.6% I have to begin wondering why that 
would be.  

The above chart in the 5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) also gives traders 
some very good levels to monitor going forward and to check 
against the S&P 500 ($SPX.X) or stock you're trading or thinking 
of trading.  Think of those levels as a "barometer" of liquidity 
and how cash is either being raised (HIGHER Yield) or lowered 
(LOWER Yield) in the market.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

60 Minutes
by Russ Moore

60 Minutes. It looked as though we were in for another session of 
sideways shuffling as the markets traded without directional 
conviction. All that came to an end in the final hour of action 
with the major indices turning on the after burners to close with 
healthy gains. 

The DOW added +1.2 percent while the NASDAQ gained +2.4 percent 
and the NDX +2.7. Volume was moderate with 1.35 billion shares 
trading on the big board and 1.95 billion shares moving on the 
tech index. Market breadth was positive as winners clobbered 
losers by a 20/12 margin on the NYSE and 23/14 difference on the 
NASDAQ.

Airline, biotech, and financial sectors were strong on the 
broader markets while gold and retail gave back a little. Tech 
strength came from chips, hardware and software.

A mixed bag of economic goodies saw jobless claims rising +54,000 
to 488,000 versus expectations of 441,000. October durable goods 
orders came in strong with a gain of 12.8 percent versus the +2.1 
percent forecast. New home sales continued to show strength, 
rising +0.2 percent.

The semiconductor index (SOX) was one of today’s stellar 
performers with a gain of +4.24 percent. That gain is 
particularly interesting when you consider the -17.2 percent 
decline in Semiconductor sales for the month of October. 

Markets continue to ride the rails between their 20 and 200DMA’s. 
Traders seem content to buy the dips and sell the rallies, and, 
unless a major catalyst comes forward, we could see this type of 
action for awhile.


VIX 
Thursday 11/29 close: 26.26


VXN
Thursday 11/29 close: 48.95


30-yr Bonds
Thursday 11/29 close: 5.23


Total Put/Call Ratio: .78


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .66


Index Option Put/Call Ratio:  1.77


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 39.95

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/131,768
Maximum puts : 40/108,427

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 39
 20 DMA 38
 50 DMA 34
200 DMA 41

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 585.28

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 640/5,247
Maximum puts : 500/7,391
Moving Averages
 10 DMA  589
 20 DMA  581
 50 DMA  559
200 DMA  607

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1140.20

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/40,524
Maximum puts : 1100/43,940

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1143
 20 DMA 1129
 50 DMA 1087
200 DMA 1179

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,829.42

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 98/25,565
Maximum Puts   90/48,888

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,880
 20 DMA  9,715
 50 DMA  9,327
200 DMA 10,162

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 600.55

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 620/  806
Maximum Puts:  540/1,155

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 596
 20 DMA 583
 50 DMA 524
200 DMA 536

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 533.17

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/ 752
Maximum Puts:  470/1586

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 520
 20 DMA 516
 50 DMA 459
200 DMA 562

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 397.69

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/375
Maximum Puts:  360/320

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 397
 20 DMA 394
 50 DMA 391
200 DMA 392

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Monday, 11/26. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
11/06/01     376,807   416,063   (39,256)    8.2%
11/13/01     381,539   421,284   (39,745)    1.2%
11/20/01     369,784   415,822   (46,038)   13.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
11/06/01       132,106    81,208    50,898    (2.7%)
11/13/01       136,047    87,645    48,402    (4.9%)
11/20/01       140,507    86,861    53,646     9.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
11/06/01      39,410    47,890    (8,480)  (37.0%)
11/13/01      38,751    49,257   (10,506)   23.9%
11/20/01      38,042    46,446    (8,404)  (20.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
11/06/01       11,406     8,143    3,263     (47.7%)
11/13/01       11,568     6,505    5,063      55.1%
11/20/01       12,933     8,230    4,703      (7.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
11/06/01      25,977    11,951   14,026      5.4%
11/13/01      24,145    10,204   13,941     (0.6%)
11/20/01      25,033    11,525   13,508     (3.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
11/06/01       3,569    12,281    (8,712)     25.2%
11/13/01       4,094    12,121    (8,027)     (7.8%)
11/20/01       3,609    10,565    (6,956)    (13.3%)
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +53,646     +48,402        -46,038     -39,745

Total Open
Interest %       (+23.59%)  (+21.64%)      (-5.86%)   (-4.95%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -6,956     -8,027          +13,508    13,941
Total Open
interest %       (-49.07%)    (-49.50%)      (+36.94%)  (+40.59)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +4,703      +5,063         -8,404    -10,506

Total Open
Interest %        (+22.22%)   (+28.01%)     (-9.95%) (-11.94%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Commercial players finally moved off of their four-week 
holding period as they added to their net-short positions. The 
increase was limited to less than a percentage point; 
nonetheless, it does show that the Commercials have not yet moved 
in to a full-blown accumulation phase (bullish) and would appear 
to be playing a cautious hand.

Gold: November has not been kind to the XAU (gold and silver 
index), however, Commercial players have reduced their net-short 
contracts to near flat and that could signal a bounce in gold is 
around the corner.

10/23 25,191 contracts net-short
10/30 33,199 contracts net-short
11/06 35,435 contracts net-short
11/13 23,637 contracts net-short
11/20  2,489 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 11/20 by the CFTC.



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

AT&T Corp - T - close: 17.62 change: +0.27 stop: 16.65

Company Description
AT&T is one of the lumbering behemoths in the telecom industry.  
They provide everything from voice, data, video, internet access, 
for individuals, small business and large corporations.  They 
supply both domestic and long distance service in addition to 
cable television and more.  (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Regular readers know that Mr. Bailey has been discussing AT&T in 
his wraps and intraday updates off and on for the last few days.  
Yesterday was a key day for us in our decision process for T.  
The broader markets were falling but T turned in a very bullish 
day with an "engulfing" candlestick pattern and a close over its 
200-dma.  We waited until today to see if the move had any 
strength to it.  There was a brief dip towards $17.00 near the 
open but the rest of the day was bullish with intraday support 
between 17.15 and 17.20.  However, the close over the $17.50 
level was the clincher.  The $17.50 level had been support back 
on October 19th and the 22nd.  Previous support is commonly seen 
as new resistance and the close over this level was encouraging.  
Now the real catalyst for this play is the bids rolling in for 
AT&T's broadband cable division.  T turned down $44.5B from 
Comcast back in July and considered spinning the unit off.  It 
appears they are willing to sell and new bids are expected from 
Comcast, AOL Time Warner and Cox Communications.  There is even 
word that Microsoft is considering a $3B to $5B investment.  With 
a lot of the bids expected to come out on Monday we want to jump 
in before the news hits the wires and momentum and takeover 
buyers push the price up.  Our initial target is $20 where T has 
steep resistance.  However, traders can see that last time news 
came out about an offer shares of T traded north of $21 (look at 
last July).  We're going to start the play with a stop at $16.65, 
which is 10 cents below the 15-dma.  If this is too much exposure 
for you consider something under just $17 or really limit your 
risk with something under 17.20 but these latter two have a much 
higher risk of being stopped out on an intraday dip.  To 
reiterate, if the current bidding war looks like a bullish 
opportunity to you then the logical strategy would appear to be  
that Friday (tomorrow) is the day to enter the play.  As long as 
T is above $17.00 we would probably agree with that (between 
17.50 and 18.00 would also be an attractive entry).

Picked on November 29th at $17.62 
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date               10/23 (confirmed)






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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 11-29-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/263_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bearish Play Updates: RLRN, QCOM, WWCA

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bearish Play Updates: LFG, PB
  Closed Bearish Plays: PPDI

High Risk / High Reward
  New Bullish Play:     T
  Bullish Play Updates: AKLM
  Bearish Play Updates: TRDO, VSNX

Split Trader
   - none -

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Renaissance Learnings - RLRN  cls: 25.10 chg: -0.41 stop: 26.51

There has been nothing new in the press to report for RLRN.  The 
last couple of sessions have produced small end of day surges in 
the stock price but not enough to make a difference in the trend.  
We still need to see RLRN firmly close under the $25.00 level.  
This would make us a lot more comfortable and may offer safer 
positions to initiate short positions.  Traders need to confirm 
stock direction before playing.  We are a little concerned that 
volume is drying up.  Bears can take some consolation that RLRN 
slipped 2% on Thursday when the GSO.X software index rallied 
3.6%.  

Picked on November 23rd at $25.16 
Gain since picked:          +0.06
Earnings Date               10/15 (confirmed)




---

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 58.42 change: +1.13 stop: 60.61

Surprisingly there was no news for QCOM on Thursday.  The stock 
traded lower in the morning hours only to find new strength as 
the Nasdaq began to strengthen.  The good news for the bears as 
the MACD is still negative and shares remain under $60.  The bad 
news is QCOM is back above its 200-dma.  Not by much and it may 
not be enough to inspire the bulls to defend it.  We would remain 
cautious at this point as no one knows if today's rally can carry 
over into Friday.  If QCOM trades up to $60 and rolls over or 
falls back below its 200-dma these may be opportunities to 
initiate new short positions.  

Picked on November 28th at $57.29 
Gain since picked:          -1.13
Earnings Date               11/06 (confirmed)




---

Western Wireless - WWCA - cls: 24.96 chg: -0.51 stop: 25.88 

We came pretty close to being stopped out on Wednesday as WWCA 
surged higher while the rest of the market experienced a bout of 
profit taking.  WWCA trade to a high of 25.74 yesterday but the 
10-dma is still acting as overhead resistance for the stock.  
We're encouraged by the close under $25.00 but would really like 
to see a strong move down from here to confirm the direction.  
This slow drift lower is allowing the MACD to flatten out and 
obscure any signals it might give.  The prevailing trend is down 
but bulls might surprise everyone with an oversold bounce if we 
don't see another breakdown soon.  Enter carefully and pay close 
attention to your stop.

Picked on November 9th at $26.40 
Gain since picked:         +1.44
Earnings Date              11/07 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Landamerica Finl Group - LFG - cls: 25.00 chg: +0.99 stop: 25.01

The moment of truth.  It doesn't get any closer than this folks.  
Shares of LFG traded up slowly on Wednesday while the rest of the 
market was falling.  This is not an uncommon occurrence when 
traders take profits in recent winners recent losers tend to 
bounce.  However, the strength in the broader markets on 
Thursday, especially in the insurance sector gave a boost to 
failing LFG.  The IUX.X actually closed above its 200-dma - a 
feat it has not accomplished since mid-October and then it was 
quickly reversed.  With our stop at $25.01 and today's close at 
$25.00 we don't have much room for error.  Truthfully, given the 
angle of the last hour rally in the Dow, we would expect to be 
stopped out at the open tomorrow for LFG.  Bears who believe the 
negative trend will prevail for LFG may want to look for the 
$26.00 level to act as resistance and plan new entries near 
there.

Picked on November 27th at $23.74 
Gain since picked:          -1.26
Earnings Date               10/24 (confirmed)




---

Panamerican Bev Inc - PB - cls: 14.31 chg: +0.36 stop: 14.65     

PB managed a small dip near the open but quickly bounced higher 
from under the $14.00 level.  Volume was lighter than the recent 
declines and shares found resistance under $14.50.  With a new 
lower low and a new lower high our short-term trend (inside the 
longer-term trend) is still intact.  Thursday's performance looks 
like an oversold bounce.  We would look for the $14.50 to $14.60 
level to keep pressure on the stock.  On Wednesday we lowered our 
stop to $14.65 and we'll keep it there heading into the weekend.  
Just for kicks we glanced over at CCE and the stock has confirmed 
its close under its 200-dma and actually closed under its 50-dma 
with today's move a mere 12 cents. 

Picked on November 23rd at $14.95 
Gain since picked:          +0.64
Earnings Date               10/30 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Pharmaceutical Product Development
- PPDI - close: 23.81 change: +0.94 stop: 24.05

Okay, now we're beginning to feel like this stock is just picking 
on us.  We say that jokingly but sometimes when you're actively 
trading the market will do what it can to keep you humble.  The 
drug sector produced its own bounce today and PPDI joined it.  
Shares of PPDI spent most of the day trading between $23.50 and 
$24.00 and it looked like the coast was clear.  However, the last 
hour surge in the Dow helped spur PPDI to a last minute rally of 
its own.  Actually, it was in the last five minutes of the day 
when PPDI traded over $24.00 and stopped us out at $24.05.  
Thursday's performance produced an "inside day" and traders who 
like to use that technique may want to keep an eye on the stock.  
At this time our bias is still negative for PPDI but we would 
look for a breakdown under $22.50 or a failed rally between 
$25.00 and $26.00 before considering new shorts.

Picked on November 28th at $22.87 
Gain since picked:          -1.18
Earnings Date               10/16 (confirmed)






==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

AT&T Corp - T - close: 17.62 change: +0.27 stop: 16.65

Company Description
AT&T is one of the lumbering behemoths in the telecom industry.  
They provide everything from voice, data, video, internet access, 
for individuals, small business and large corporations.  They 
supply both domestic and long distance service in addition to 
cable television and more.  (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Regular readers know that Mr. Bailey has been discussing AT&T in 
his wraps and intraday updates off and on for the last few days.  
Yesterday was a key day for us in our decision process for T.  
The broader markets were falling but T turned in a very bullish 
day with an "engulfing" candlestick pattern and a close over its 
200-dma.  We waited until today to see if the move had any 
strength to it.  There was a brief dip towards $17.00 near the 
open but the rest of the day was bullish with intraday support 
between 17.15 and 17.20.  However, the close over the $17.50 
level was the clincher.  The $17.50 level had been support back 
on October 19th and the 22nd.  Previous support is commonly seen 
as new resistance and the close over this level was encouraging.  
Now the real catalyst for this play is the bids rolling in for 
AT&T's broadband cable division.  T turned down $44.5B from 
Comcast back in July and considered spinning the unit off.  It 
appears they are willing to sell and new bids are expected from 
Comcast, AOL Time Warner and Cox Communications.  There is even 
word that Microsoft is considering a $3B to $5B investment.  With 
a lot of the bids expected to come out on Monday we want to jump 
in before the news hits the wires and momentum and takeover 
buyers push the price up.  Our initial target is $20 where T has 
steep resistance.  However, traders can see that last time news 
came out about an offer shares of T traded north of $21 (look at 
last July).  We're going to start the play with a stop at $16.65, 
which is 10 cents below the 15-dma.  If this is too much exposure 
for you consider something under just $17 or really limit your 
risk with something under 17.20 but these latter two have a much 
higher risk of being stopped out on an intraday dip.  To 
reiterate, if the current bidding war looks like a bullish 
opportunity to you then the logical strategy would appear to be  
that Friday (tomorrow) is the day to enter the play.  As long as 
T is above $17.00 we would probably agree with that (between 
17.50 and 18.00 would also be an attractive entry).

Picked on November 29th at $17.62 
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date               10/23 (confirmed)





===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Acclaim Entertainment - AKLM - close: 5.66 change: -0.10 stop: 5.49

I don't know about you but we're seeing a lot of close calls when 
it comes to our stops.  AKLM drifted to $5.52 (its 20-dma) midday 
on Thursday before closing a little higher off its lows.  The 
stock actually traded higher this morning towards $6.00 but 
selling brought it back to the $5.50 support level.  We're not 
sure why AKLM is not trading with its sector-mates.  Both ERTS 
and ATVI were both up today and there were some positive comments 
about the holiday sales season for the video game industry today.  
Buyers should be careful and really look for confirmation in the 
stock's direction before considering a position.  If you like the 
sector, and we do, but AKLM doesn't work out for us then keep 
your eye on ATVI.  ATVI's bounce off its 200-dma today could 
prove to be reversal bulls have been looking for.

Picked on November 23rd at $ 6.00 
Gain since picked:          -0.34
Earnings Date               10/24 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Intrado Inc - TRDO - close: 25.90 change: +0.65 stop: 27.51

We're not complaining about the 2.5% bounce in TRDO today.  On 
Wednesday, TRDO fell 6% to and closed near its low for the day.  
Given today's market strength a small bounce should be expected.  
We're encouraged that the $26.00 - $26.10 level held as 
resistance and shares closed under $26.  The $25.00 level of 
support could be a little tougher than originally thought and 
those traders who are looking to exit early could target $25.00, 
$24.00 or $23.50 as potential areas to cover their short for a 
profit.  

Picked on November 23rd at $27.23 
Gain since picked:          +1.33
Earnings Date               10/25 (confirmed)




---

Visionics Corp - VSNX - close: 11.50 change: -0.20 stop: 12.41*new*

News of an alliance with ARINC Inc to sell face-recognition 
technology and systems to the aviation industry and the 
government was not enough to lift VSNX from its downward trend.  
This is the third day in a row that VSNX has drifted lower under 
the $12.00 level.  The 10-dma continues to act as overhead 
resistance and with support between $11 and $11.30 we could see a 
breakout one way or the other soon.   Obviously, the bias is for 
a bearish breakout.  We are still targeting $10.00 as our target 
and if shares trade that low we will close the play for a profit.  
We have lowered our stop to 12.41 which is just above Wednesday's 
high.  

Picked on November 27th at $11.95 
Gain since picked:          +0.45
Earnings Date               11/14 (confirmed)





==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UST     Ust Inc                    35.54     +0.83
VGR     Vector Group               44.10     +1.49
AXL     American Axel & Manfg.     19.47     +0.66
MDC     M.D.C. Holdings Inc        32.92     +1.37
SIDE    Associated Materials Inc   32.05     +1.70

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SNDK    Sandisk Corp               14.85     +2.34
TTEC    Teletech Holdings Inc      12.05     +2.11
OIIM    O2micro Intl. Ltd          19.60     +1.25
HAND    Handspring Inc              6.16     +1.16
MAXY    Maxygen Inc                18.58     +1.53

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SAP     Sag AG Ads                 30.30     +2.18
CA      Computer Associates        33.74     +2.21
ERTS    Electronic Arts Inc        58.01     +4.40
HRB     H&R Block Inc              40.34     +4.34
FMER    Firstmerit Corp            25.87     +1.13
BKS     Barnes & Noble Inc         29.90     +2.89

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

JNJ     Johnson & Johnson          58.48     -1.51
EDS     Electronic Data Systems    68.51     -1.29
HGSI    Human Genome Sciences      41.48     -1.44
BLK     Blackrock Inc              38.99     -1.39
VAR     Varian Medical Systems     68.90     -2.10

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 

JHF     John Hancock Financial     38.70     -0.55
SONC    Sonic Corp                 32.30     -0.20
NMGA    Neiman Marcus Group        30.21     -0.59
ACRT    Actrade Financial Tech.    28.90     -0.60




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