PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 12-03-2001 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/6075_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: The Fuse Is Burning... Market Sentiment: Economics on the back burner Play-of-the-Day: We'll Try It Again Watch List: MLNM, RTRSY, LIN, UTX, C ----------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Market Numbers ----------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 12-03-2001 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 9764.00 - 87.60 9848.90 9703.90 1.20 bln 1272/1870 NASDAQ 1904.90 - 25.60 1925.35 1898.98 1.48 bln 1324/2282 S&P 100 578.66 - 6.14 584.80 576.77 totals 2596/4152 S&P 500 1129.90 - 9.55 1139.45 1125.78 RUS 2000 457.03 - 3.75 460.79 455.51 DJ TRANS 2483.06 - 28.72 2512.68 2471.24 VIX 26.00 - 0.14 27.04 25.82 Put/Call Ratio 0.62 ----------------------------------------------------------------- =========== Market Wrap =========== The Fuse Is Burning... Jeff Bailey came up with a good metaphor to explain the current market dynamic. I'm going to borrow it for today's Market Wrap. From Jeff Bailey's Market Wrap last Friday: Maybe [Friday's] market was like a firecracker. The "fuse" has been lit and perhaps it's now burning. The question remains... "Will the fuse stay lit and what type of powder chart is at the end of the fuse?" The fuse burned brighter in today's market. The 5-year Treasury YIELD (FVX) broke and closed below the 40.00 (4.00%) level in today's trading. The FVX closed on its day low in yield, which means price closed at its high. If price closed at its high, that means "they" were buying 5-year Treasury notes. The liquidity concerns that Mr. Bailey alluded to last week are as follows: if money is going into the 5-year note then it has to come from somewhere else, possibly stocks. The 5-year finished 1.40 percent lower in yield. What was interesting in today's market is that the shorter-dated 13-week Treasury bill (IRX) finished lower in price and higher in yield. Of the four primary Treasury benchmarks (IRX, FVX, 10-year (TNX), and 30-year (TYX)) only the 13-week finished higher in yield and lower in price. The 10-year finished 0.86 percent lower in yield, while the 30-year finished 0.20 percent lower in yield. The 13-week finished 0.57 percent higher in yield, which means the market was selling shorter-dated Treasuries in favor of longer maturities. Because of its shorter maturity, the 13-week is the safest of the aforementioned Treasuries. But because of its relative safety, the 13-week yields the lowest. Its yield closed today at 17.40, or 1.74 percent. The domino effect Jeff wrote about played out today exactly as he scripted last Friday. The 13-week was sold because of its low yield and some of the proceeds of that sale moved into the 5-year. Remember, the 5-year yield dropped the most percentage points today, which means it was the most heavily bought among the longer-dated Treasuries. While bond market participants still appear to be shunning the risks associated with the 10- and 30-year Treasuries, they're willing to accept more risk by moving out of the 13-week and into the 5-year. But any way you slice it, the bond market action was further evidence of the burning fuse, which could pressure stocks lower over the short-term. Stocks moving lower today included banking issues. The KBW Bank Sector Index (BKX) dropped for the second consecutive session. The realization of Enron's (NYSE:ENE) bankruptcy over the weekend, increasing tensions in the Middle East, and continued fears over Argentina all contributed to the weakness in the BKX today. The sector finished 1.50 percent lower, but off of its session lows. The BKX bounced from an interesting level Monday at 815. It's an interesting level because it's the site from which the BKX rebounded on November 11. This double-bottom may very well hold and the BKX may subsequently rebound and trade higher from here. Conversely, a breakdown below the 815 level, as measured by a "print" at 810 would shorten the fuse for stocks. Chart of the Banking Sector. Chart= In technology, the fuse has been burning brightly in the Networking Sector Index (NWX). The Networking Index, which includes notables such as Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), Juniper Networks (NASDAQ:JNPR), Ciena (NASDAQ:CIEN), and Riverstone Networks (NASDAQ:RSTN), has been stair-stepping lower since November 20. The NWX broke below another key support level in Monday's session at 320. It was one of the worst performing sectors of the market today with its 3.58 percent loss. The heavyweight of the group, Cisco, is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter results after the bell Wednesday. The company reaffirmed guidance about two months ago. That event carried shares of Cisco from the low teens all the way up to $20 recently. But the stock was unable to advance past the $20 level. I would think that the rally from early October from the $11 area up to $20 discounted the good news that Cisco is about to report in two days. But the question remains just how good is the news that Cisco is about to report? The NWX may hold the answer. Cisco may indeed report a better-than-expected number. Current estimates call for 5 cents per share in earnings and about $4.5 billion in revenues. If the company exceeds its estimates by a wide margin then the NWX will probably rebound. But the poor trading in the group recently may portend of a Cisco report that is better-than-expected, but not necessarily a reason to rally the Networkers. Of course there's a lot of subjectivity on my part in reaching that conclusion. But the NWX has been weak in the last several sessions and gave up more relative strength in today's session. If smart money knew that Cisco was going to blow away its estimates, then I think they'd be bidding the NWX higher. Chart of the Biotech sector Chart= Among the better performing sectors today included the Pharmaceutical Index (DRG). Was that a reason for concern as it relates to stocks? The DRG is defensive in nature because drug companies aren't as levered to the economy as banks and networking companies. If a mutual fund manager needs to buy stocks for his/her fund but isn't confident about the prospects of the U.S. economy, then he/she might seek equity exposure in the drugs for their relative safety. The Biotechnology Sector Index (BTK) finished lower in today's session, while the DRG finished fractionally higher. The biotechs aren't as levered to the economy as the banks and networkers, but are more aggressive than the drug companies. The divergence between the BTK and DRG tells me that the buying wasn't unique to drug-related companies in general, only those with established product lines and pipelines. Or, in other words, less risky drug companies. The deliberate buying of the DRG components "felt" like defensive posturing. Merck (NYSE:MRK), a component of the DRG, tacked on 75 cents today. It was among the sector's best performing stocks today, the others were: King (NYSE:KG), American Home Products (NYSE:AHP), Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY), and Schering Plough (NYSE:SGP). Shares of Merck edged higher, towards their long-standing descending trend line. The bearish resistance line I'm referring to can readily be seen on the stock's point and figure chart. A breakout above $69 and subsequent advance above $70 may indicate an extended rally in shares of Merck. The stock acts as if it's under institutional accumulation and where the "elephants" are playing is generally a good place to be. Have you ever tried stopping an elephant in its tracks? Take my word, it's difficult. It's better to follow an elephant through the jungle. Chart of Merck Chart= Is what is good for Merck bad for the rest of the market? Not necessarily. But the current accumulation of Merck smells like something is burning. It's another metric that reveals a defensive market posture. Let's just step back and look at it this way: Where did money move Monday? It moved into bonds, healthcare minus biotechs, the defense industry, gold, and energy. With the exception of energy, each of the aforementioned sectors are defensive in nature and not as closely tied to the business cycle. What's more, the move in the energy sector was related to the weekend events in the Middle East and a possible production cut in Russia; the move was news-related. The major averages closed at or near recent historical support zones. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) rebounded by about 60 points from its support level at 9700, which was the site of its day low. It finished lower by 0.88 percent. The S&P 500 (SPX) shed 0.83 percent. It too finished above its day low, but closed between the 1125 and 1130 support zone. The Nasdaq-100 (NDX) closed slightly below its 1575 support level. I wouldn't label the NDX close a complete breakdown, but follow-through to the downside in Tuesday's session would add credence to the breakdown argument. The fuse is lit in the bond market, several sectors of the stock market, as well as the major averages. A confluence of breakdowns in sectors such as the BKX and NWX in conjunction with failures of support in the major averages could lead to an explosion. But the fuse hasn't reached the powder yet. The bulls still have time to snuff out the flames. Mr. Bailey is back in action Tuesday. Until then, have a nice evening. Eric Utley Premier Investor ================ Market Sentiment ================ Economics on the back burner by Russ Moore Economics on the back burner. Under normal circumstances, today’s stronger then expected economic numbers would have sparked at least a modest rally. However, today’s data took a back seat to Middle East tensions, Enron troubles and Argentine woes. The DOW closed with a loss of -0.9 percent while the NASDAQ dropped -1.3 percent and the NDX -1.8 percent. Volume was weak with 1.19 billion shares trading on the big board and 1.49 billion shares moving on the NASDAQ. Losers hammered winners by a 19/13 margin on the NYSE and 23/13 on the tech index. Northbound sectors included gold, drug, healthcare, oil, oil service and natural gas. Brokerage, biotech, airline, Internet and networking sectors experienced the heaviest losses. Economic data saw personal income remaining flat, while personal spending rose +2.9 percent versus the +2.4 percent expected. Construction spending was positive, posting an increase of +1.9 percent. The National Association of Purchasing Managers index came in at 44.5, a significant increase over last month’s 38.8, and stronger than the 41.6 forecast. The most positive portion of the report was a rise in new orders, moving to 48.8 percent from 38.3 percent. We could be in for a few more days of choppy action as all eyes will be on the employment numbers due out of Friday. A positive surprise, coupled with today’s data could lead to a solid move to the upside assuming Middle East concerns are improving and the Enron debacle drops off the front pages. VIX Monday 12/03 close: 26.00 VXN Monday 12/03 close: 49.74 30-yr Bonds Monday 12/03 close: 5.25 Total Put/Call Ratio: .72 Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .60 Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.52 === NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ) 52-Week High: 103.51 52-Week Low: 28.19 Current close: 38.97 Volume/Open Interest Maximum calls: 40/135,658 Maximum puts : 40/112,308 Moving Averages 10 DMA 39 20 DMA 38 50 DMA 35 200 DMA 41 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 27.00 (09/21/01) 38% 36.60 50% 39.57 62% 42.59 === S&P 100 Index (OEX) 52-Week High: 834.93 52-Week Low: 491.70 Current close: 578.66 Volume/Open Interest Maximum calls: 640/5,348 Maximum puts : 500/7,381 Moving Averages 10 DMA 587 20 DMA 584 50 DMA 562 200 DMA 606 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 480.07 (09/21/01) 38% 556.14 50% 579.65 62% 603.55 === S&P 500 (SPX) 52-Week High: 1530.01 52-Week Low: 965.80 Current close: 1129.90 Volume / Open Interest Maximum calls: 1150/42,371 Maximum puts : 1100/43,456 Moving Averages 10 DMA 1142 20 DMA 1134 50 DMA 1093 200 DMA 1177 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 944.75 (09/21/01) 38% 1086.75 50% 1130.62 62% 1175.23 == DJIA (INDU) 52-Week High: 11,518.83 52-Week Low: 8,235.81 Current close: 9,763.96 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 98/26,104 Maximum Puts 90/48,196 Moving Averages: 10 DMA 9,868 20 DMA 9,766 50 DMA 9,387 200 DMA 10,151 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01) Relative Low 8,062.34 (05/21/01) 38% 9,308.92 50% 9,693.99 62% 10,085.60 == Biotech Index (BTK) 52-Week High: 811.61 52-Week Low: 383.28 Current close: 585.33 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 620/ 751 Maximum Puts: 540/1,155 Moving Averages 10 DMA 599 20 DMA 587 50 DMA 530 200 DMA 536 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00) Relative Low: 383.28 (03/22/01) 38% 546.22 50% 596.57 62% 646.71 == Semiconductor Index (SOX) 52-Week High: 1280.84 52-Week Low: 362.00 Current close: 511.00 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 520/ 754 Maximum Puts: 470/1272 Moving Averages 10 DMA 517 20 DMA 519 50 DMA 464 200 DMA 561 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 343.93 (09/27/01) 38% 484.50 50% 527.18 62% 570.57 == Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) 52-Week High: 455.28 52-Week Low: 339.49 Current close: 398.79 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 420/406 Maximum Puts: 360/330 Moving Averages 10 DMA 398 20 DMA 395 50 DMA 392 200 DMA 392 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00) Relative Low: 339.49 (03/22/01) 38% 382.22 50% 395.69 62% 409.03 ***** CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 11/30. Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the Chicago Board Of Trade. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in favor of the commercial trader’s direction. S&P 500 Commercials Long Short Net %Change 11/13/01 381,539 421,284 (39,745) 1.2% 11/20/01 369,784 415,822 (46,038) 13.6% 11/27/01 371,336 421,405 (50,069) 8.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01 Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144) - 5/1/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 11/13/01 136,047 87,645 48,402 (4.9%) 11/20/01 140,507 86,861 53,646 9.8% 11/27/01 151,317 92,807 58,510 9.1% Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 91,122 - 3/06/01 NASDAQ-100 Commercials Long Short Net %Change 11/13/01 38,751 49,257 (10,506) 23.9% 11/20/01 38,042 46,446 (8,404) (20.0%) 11/27/01 37,259 48,315 (11,056) 31.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01 Most bullish reading of the year: (1,825) - 1/02/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 11/13/01 11,568 6,505 5,063 55.1% 11/20/01 12,933 8,230 4,703 (7.1%) 11/27/01 12,540 8,359 4,181 (11.1%) Most bearish reading of the year: (1,028) - 1/02/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/01 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercials Long Short Net %Change 11/13/01 24,145 10,204 13,941 (0.6%) 11/20/01 25,033 11,525 13,508 (3.1%) 11/27/01 24,243 11,496 12,747 (5.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,925 - 5/22/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 11/13/01 4,094 12,121 (8,027) (7.8%) 11/20/01 3,609 10,565 (6,956) (13.3%) 11/27/01 4,228 10,630 (6,402) (8.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (7,572) - 5/08/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 Small Specs Commercials S&P 500 (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value +58,510 +53,646 -50,069 -46,038 Total Open Interest % (+23.97%) (+23.59%) (-6.32%) (-5.86%) net-long net-long net-short net-short Small Specs Commercials DJIA futures (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value -4,228 -6,956 +12,747 13,508 Total Open interest % (-43.09%) (-49.07%) (+35.67%) (+36.94) net-short net-short net-long net-long Small Spec Commercials NASDAQ 100 (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value +4,181 +4,703 -11,056 -8,404 Total Open Interest % (+20.01%) (+22.22%) (-12.92%) (-9.95%) net-long net-long net-short net-short What COT Data Tells Us ---------------------- Indices:.We’ve seen the Commercials add to their net-short positions for the second week in a row after being stationary for a month. Is this a bearish sign? Too early to tell, but as we said last week, a failure to go net-long (bullish) is an indication of caution, and one that must be respected by longer- term players. Gold: Last week we highlighted the fact that Commercials reducing their net-short positions by a wide margin could indicate a bounce is around the corner. Looking at the XAU (gold and silver index) this week we see that the index has enjoyed a 5 percent gain. Nothing to get too excited about, however, with the Commercials going net-long (bullish) this week, it’s worth monitoring. 10/30 33,199 contracts net-short 11/06 35,435 contracts net-short 11/13 23,637 contracts net-short 11/20 2,489 contracts net-short 11/27 1,738 contracts net-long Data compiled as of Tuesday 11/20 by the CFTC. ========================= Play-of-the-Day (Bearish) ========================= QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 57.28 change: -1.44 stop: 60.61 Company Description QUALCOMM Incorporated is a leader in developing and delivering innovative digital wireless communications products and services based on the Company's CDMA digital technology. The Company's business areas include CDMA chipsets and system software; technology licensing; the Binary Runtime Environment for Wireless(TM) (BREW(TM)) applications platform; Eudora® e-mail software; digital cinema systems; and satellite-based systems including portions of the Globalstar(TM) system and wireless fleet management systems, OmniTRACS® and OmniExpress®. QUALCOMM owns patents that are essential to all of the CDMA wireless telecommunications standards that have been adopted or proposed for adoption by standards-setting bodies worldwide. QUALCOMM has licensed its essential CDMA patent portfolio to more than 100 telecommunications equipment manufacturers worldwide. (source: company press release) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP: Nov. 28th, 2001 - Why We Like It: We like QCOM as a short-term bearish play due to its technical breakdown of support at $60 this week and its 200-dma that occurred on Wednesday. This is more of a technical play than any fundamental reason to short the stock. Shares produced a nice run up from $49.00 to $62.50 in November and a 50% retracement would only put the bearish target near $55 - $56. However, QCOM's legendary volatility could bring the stock back to its 50- dma which is currently resting near $51. Thus our target for the stock is $51.00. The MACD just produced a bearish crossover today and the point-and-figure chart shows QCOM on a fresh column of O's. Be prepared for some support at $55. We are going to start the play with a stop just over today's high at $60.61. If QCOM shows weakness early on and trades down from there then more conservative traders may be able to put a stop just over $58.55. Adjust your stop accordingly. - Monday Update, Dec. 3rd, 2001 - This could be it. We originally picked QCOM on the breakdown below its 200-dma. Shares have since re-tested the $60 level and its 10-dma as overhead resistance. Monday's performance put it back below the 200-dma and Tuesday could bring the move we've been looking for. Confirm stock direction before committing new capital. Picked on November 28th at $57.29 Gain since picked: +0.01 Earnings Date 11/06 (confirmed) Chart = ========== Watch List ========== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. ----------- Millennium Pharmaceuticals - MLNM - close: 32.10 change: -1.99 WHAT TO WATCH: The Biotech sector dipped beneath short-term support at the 10 DMA today and we think that the chances of continued profit taking are relatively high. MLNM closed just under its short-term support for the first time in over a month and, while today’s volume lacks the conviction associated with significant profit taking, tomorrow could provide the requisite insight to determine the direction of the stock in the coming days. The breach of short-term support suggests that MLNM could retrace recent gains as far down as just under 29.00. However, if volume returns tomorrow and short-term support is re- established, MLNM could return to its ascending trend and offer a 10% upside. At current levels we would expect MLNM to find support at the $30 area. This level is bolstered by its 200-dma and the 15-dma. This is not the first time shares have dipped below its 10-dma o the current bullish trend and buyers may see this as an entry point. Tomorrow could be the pivotal day. Chart = --- Reuters Group PLC - RTRSY - close: 59.26 change: +1.46 WHAT TO WATCH: Friday’s close saw RTRSY shares fall under the 50-DMA of 58.80 but buyers stepped up to the plate today, pushing the stock back above the long-term average. Significant support exists around the 58.00 area and a move higher tomorrow should tell us whether a new bullish trend is at the onset. Conversely, a dip back under the 50-DMA accompanied by conviction could force a retest of support at 53.00. Keep in mind that RTRSY trades on the London exchange and the charts will show gaps in opening prices. For those traders that believe they can pick reversals this could be one in the making. Or it could be a speed bump on the way down. Over $60, we'd consider a bullish play with a tight stop. Under $57.75, we'd consider a bearish play with a tight stop. Right now the trend is obviously bearish and readers should consider positions cautiously. Chart = --- Linens N Things - LIN - close: 23.20 change: -0.80 WHAT TO WATCH: Retail stocks soared in November and LIN was no exception. Profit taking today, however, pushed shares beneath short-term support for the first time in one month and could portend continued selling pressure. As long as shares remain under the 10-dma, currently at $23.50, we would consider a short (bearish) play. LIN could fall to $21.40, a 50% retracement of the November run, or to $20, near its 50-dma. Keep an eye on the retail index (RLX.X) which has been stuck in a trading range and looks tired. Chart = --- United Technology - UTX - close: 58.91 change: -1.29 WHAT TO WATCH: UTX has traded in a similar trend with the Dow for the last two months and today provided additional proof of that correlation. Though the stock is reasonably priced at current levels, yesterday’s failed rally at the 100-dma, and today’s reinforcing decline and drop below its 10-dma, suggest that a further drop could be in order. The stock looks overbought and could be overdue for some profit taking. The MACD is really looking tired and is about to produce a bearish crossover. A 50% retracement from the September low to the November high would put UTX near $50. We suspect the 50-dma near $54 might offer support and a few weeks ago UTX bounced off its 30-dma. Traders will want to see confirmation of the breakdown. Chart = --- Citigroup - C - close: 46.91 change: -0.99 WHAT TO WATCH: Financials have headed south four of the last five trading sessions and with C confirming its breakdown below the 200-dma the bullish run could be over. Some traders may be betting that the 50-dma at 46.16 will offer support but the MACD is negative and getting worse and the short-term 5-dma has produced a bearish crossover of its 15-dma. Fortunately, for the bulls, even if the stock does fall further there will like be some price support near $45.00 and $44.75 (see the end of October). The question is will the 50-dma or $45 be enough to hold up the stock price? A 50% pull back of the Sept-Nov. rally would put C near $43. Using a retracement tool, traders can see that the $45 level is also supported by the 38.2% retracement level. Chart = ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to remove@PremierInvestor.net ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact advertising@PremierInvestor.net. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 12-03-2001 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/6075_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: Net Bulls Bullish Play Note: EXEL Bearish Stop Adjustments: WWCA Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Net Bulls (NB) section ================================================================== Play Note! EXEL - in the weekend newsletter we published EXEL as a bullish new play for Premier. However, on the website it was incorrectly labeled as a bearish (short) play. The play write up described a bullish strategy but we wanted to clear up any confusion. =================== NB Stop Adjustments =================== Bearish Plays ------------- WWCA - close: 23.79 change: -0.78 stop: 25.01 *new* WWCA is again moving in our favor and this time it closed below the $24.00 level. Traders interested in collecting a 10% move should be looking to take profits now. We are moving our stop down to $25.01, which should help ensure a move of 5% should we get stopped out. A slightly more conservative approach would be to use today's high as a stop. Chart = ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. --------------------------------- Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change CVC Cablevision Systems 43.40 +1.36 GLH Gallaher Group 25.92 +0.76 MTH Meritage Corp 45.75 +1.06 TKCI Keith Companies Inc 10.20 +1.66 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change LBRT Liberate Technologies 10.48 +1.33 ARRS Arris Group Inc 9.62 +1.52 MROI Mro Software Inc 19.30 +2.30 FALC Falconstor Software Inc 9.22 +1.52 CCBL C-Cor.Net Corp 10.88 +1.24 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change CVG Convergys Corp 34.87 +1.64 MBT Mobile Telesys 38.00 +2.41 MUR Murphy Oil Corp 74.61 +2.70 RMD Resmed Inc 61.75 +3.25 ESST Ess Technology Inc 20.51 +1.71 ----------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change GE General Electric 36.92 -1.58 HI Household Intl 56.29 -2.70 STT State Street Corp 50.90 -1.44 TJX Tjx Companies 35.95 -1.74 MEDI Medimmune Inc 38.83 -5.27 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- AIG American Intl Group 81.75 -0.65 HIG Hartford Fncl. Srvcs 58.43 -0.77 AOC Aon Corp 35.00 -0.83 NFB North Fork Bancorp 29.74 -0.55 RDN Radian Group 37.78 -0.52 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to remove@PremierInvestor.net ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact advertising@PremierInvestor.net. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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