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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 12/06/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 12-06-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Chewing Some Cud
Market Sentiment: Taking a Breather
Play-of-the-Day:  Quadruple Top Breakout!

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       12-06-2001           High     Low    Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10099.14 - 15.15 10169.44 10079.77  1.4 bln   1572/1539
NASDAQ   2054.27 +  7.43  2065.69  2037.64  2.1 bln   2068/1558
S&P 100   596.77 -  0.93   599.97   595.56   Totals   3640/3097
S&P 500  1167.10 -  3.25  1173.35  1164.43
RUS 2000  482.23 +  2.81   482.80   478.72
DJ TRANS 2619.40 +  6.91  2643.24  2596.81
VIX        25.09 +  0.30    25.66    24.63
VXN        48.39 +  0.95    48.99    47.76
TRIN        1.09
Put/Call Ratio       .80
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========


Chewing some cud

It was a day of rest for equity bulls to chew their cud.  
Yesterday's gains were slowly digested and the major averages 
showed some decline, but just fractionally.

The NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) and Russell 2000 (RUT.X) did manage 
to put in a positive trading session, but gains there were also 
fractional.  Both the NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 have closed 
above their 200-day moving averages for the 3rd straight session.

The broader NYSE Composite (NYA.X) and S&P 500 traded lower, but 
neither index was down more than 0.27%.  The narrower, but widely 
followed Dow Industrials (INDU) finished down 15 points (-0.14%) 
after having traded above its 200-day moving average for a couple 
of hours.  Tomorrow's another day, but the "fear" of a sell-off 
and profit taking didn't take place.  Just as the 10,000 level 
was a major level of "psychological resistance" in past weeks, 
any continued lingering above that level should begin to provide 
a level of "psychological support."

I will also note that our "Hypothetical Dow Portfolio" 
established from the close of September 10th, with $1,000 
invested in each stock at that day's close, now shows 19 stocks 
trading above their September 10th close.  This is the highest 
number I've seen on a closing basis since we began monitoring 
this portfolio.  This shows us the inchworm is still inching 
higher and looks healthy.

I think today's selling in the bond market and higher YIELDS 
found there help equity bulls hold onto things today.  Tomorrow's 
action in the 10-year YIELD may provide some direction in 
trading.  On November 26th, the 10-year YIELD finished the 
session with a 5.003% YIELD, but couldn't hold that higher level.  
After that, the 10-year YIELD sank day after day to the recent 
YIELD decline of 4.624%.  Yesterday's snap back in YIELD seemed 
to create the catalyst for yesterday's move.  Today's closing 
YIELD?  You guessed it!  The 10-year YIELD closed at the 5.003%, 
the same level as that found on November 26th.

By tomorrow's close, I think equity holders want to see a closing 
YIELD above the 5.003% level.  Near-term, this sure looks like 
another pivotal level and any hint of where things go from here 
will most likely come from the bond market.  I get the distinct 
impression that "Stock Trader" is looking over his shoulder at 
"Bond Trader" to see if there's still some liquidity and 
potential buying power for stocks.

The 10-year YIELD did close above its 200-day moving average for 
YIELD today, so I'm leaning on the bullish side of things based 
on today's bond market close.  You can bet I'll be watching bond 
YIELDS once again in the morning.

Intel Inside?

Today, after the close of stock trading, semiconductor bellwether 
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) boosted its fourth-quarter revenue targets, 
saying demand for its microprocessors has been stronger than 
expected.  Intel (INTC) finished the session at $34.16 (-1.3%), 
but was trading near the $34.65 level in after-hours trading.

Intel said it now expects fourth-quarter revenue to come in 
between $6.7 billion and $6.9 billion, compared with previous 
guidance of $6.2 billion to $6.8 billion.  The company didn't 
provide guidance on earnings, so it is rather unclear if the 
revenue increase is a result of cheaper chip prices, where gross 
margins would erode and earnings stay flat.  Current estimates by 
analysts are for Intel to earn 10 cents a share on revenue of 
$6.59 billion.

Advanced Micro Devices confirms demand boost

Also saying that chip demand will boost revenue is Intel's rival 
Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) $16.25 +0.06%.  AMD was halted 
for trading just prior to its announcement that it too was 
guiding higher on revenues.  The company said revenues were 
rising at least 10% sequentially from third-quarter levels of 
$765.9 million.  The company didn't say what type of loss it was 
going to report in the fourth-quarter, but that the loss would be 
narrower than previously expected.  Analysts were expecting AMD 
to report a fourth-quarter loss of 27 cents a share.  Once the 
trading halt was lifted, shares of AMD jumped to the $17.80 level 
at the time of this writing (07:45 PM EST).

Market makers getting "buy side" bias?

Why is it that the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) and Russell 2000 
(RUT.X) have been able to get above their 200-day moving 
averages, while the Dow Industrials (INDU) and S&P 500 Index 
(SPX.X) have not?  I'm thinking it has something to do with a 
"buy side" bias that market makers may be taking with their 
inventory.  Here's what has me thinking this way.

Any stock listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange has at least 4-
letters.  To me, this means a market maker is involved in 
bringing the buyer and seller together.  If a buyer is present 
and there's not a willing seller, it's up to the market maker to 
"make a market" and provide liquidity for the buyer.  Of course, 
the market maker sets his/her own price, but nonetheless, the 
Security Exchange Commission rules are that a market maker "must 
provide liquidity to the market under ANY market circumstances."  
The under "any market circumstance" could be bullish or bearish.

Now.  The Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) is full of 4-lettered 
stocks.  There are lots of 1,2 and 3 lettered stock symbols too 
(either listed on the NYSE or AMEX), but recently I've noticed 
some peculiar action in four lettered stocks at levels where I've 
thought a market maker seems to back away from the offer/ask 
where market participants buy from.

This observation started with some past commentary and trade 
setup in shares of PeopleSoft (NASDAQ:PSFT) on a break above the 
$25.70 level for the next day's trading session (see Oct. 10th 
market wrap).  The next day, shares of PSFT jumped 12.14% from 
its October 10th close.  PSFT is NOT a component of the Russell 
2000, but it is listed on the NASDAQ Composite.  To buy or sell 
the stock, you have to go through a market maker and that's what 
I'm looking for.  Market maker "buy side bias."

High Risk/High Reward potential

Tonight, we're going to list a "similar" type of trade with 
almost the exact type of trade setup that we saw in PSFT.  
There's no guarantee that the same type of trading will happen, 
but under current market conditions, shares of 3D Systems 
(NASDAQ:TDSC) may have a near-term "buy side bias" from market 
makers.  

3D Systems Corporation Chart - Daily Interval





With conventional retracement from a high to low, a trader can 
put themselves in the shoes of a market maker.  From April to 
June, shares of 3D Systems (NASDAQ:TDSC) traded like a juggernaut 
as the stock surged from end to end of retracement.  Looking 
back, it sure looks as if the $16.64 to $18.50 level was a range 
of liquidation.  Recently, the stock looks like it visited a 
range of accumulation in the $8.81 to $10.66 range.  Shares of 
TDSC show average daily volume of 50-thousand shares, but 
yesterday the stock traded over 392,000 shares (6-times average 
daily volume).  There's an old trader's saying that "volume 
proceeds price movement."  Since recent broader market action has 
been bullish and shares of TDSC are near the lower end of their 
range, this stock might be ready for a move higher.

If you were a market maker, and you had to provide a liquid 
market in this security, would you be a seller or a buyer?  I'm 
thinking that a market maker has a "buy side" approach to the 
stock above the $10.66 level of retracement and would "back off" 
his/her offer should the stock trade above recent session highs 
of $11.50.  At that point, a market maker may be looking over 
his/her shoulder at the $12.51 and $13.65 level.  Any shorting 
done at current levels to provide liquidity for the market would 
be a risky proposition.  Take a look at the 60-minute chart.  
This is where the "comparison" and trade setup looks very similar 
to that of PSFT of October 10th.

3D Systems Chart - 60-minute interval





An aggressive bull that has booked some profits in the recent 
market environment may want to take a look at TDSC near-term.  
The 60-minute chart and volume spike yesterday shows the bulk of 
the volume came in one hour.  Since the stock is rather thinly 
traded with just 50-thousand shares average daily volume, I'm 
thinking that 300,000+ volume in just one hour was an 
institutional buyer of some sort.  We never know for sure if it 
was a "new bull" establishing a position, or an "old bear" 
calling it quits.

All I know is that a market maker was involved in the 
transaction.  It could be that a market maker did buy enough 
stock below the $10.66 in his/her inventory to be able to sell to 
somebody yesterday near the $11.25 average price.  If that's the 
case, the market maker may still have a "buy side" bias in the 
stock above the $10.66 level.  A market maker that didn't have 
any stock in his/her inventory to sell, could still have executed 
the transaction for the buyer (wouldn't want to pass up a 5-cent 
a share commission per share) by selling short the stock in order 
to provide a liquid market for such a large order.  But doing so 
would put the market maker in a bearish inventory position near 
what could be the lower end of a trading range.

This type of "trading" or thinking isn't for everyone's account, 
but in the current market environment, we've been seeing some 
rather sharp reversals at levels where a market maker often times 
finds good bullish order flow as the broader market environment 
has turned bullish.  If a market maker gets caught without any 
inventory, then they must either tell their institutional client 
to call someone else to fill their order (market makers don't 
like to tell their customers to go to the competitor) or sell 
short the stock in order to keep the customer happy and coming 
back for more orders.


Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Taking a Breather
Russ Moore

After Wednesday’s monstrous rally, today’s inaction came as no 
surprise. Investors took the cautious road ahead of tomorrow’s 
employment data, leaving the markets with fractional 
gains/losses.

The DOW poked its’ nose above the 200DMA but was unable to stick 
around, ending the session with a small loss of –0.14 percent. 
The NASDAQ added to yesterday’s gains closing up +0.3 percent 
while the big-cap NDX dropped –0.2 percent. Volume was strong 
with 1.45 billion shares trading on the big board and +2.14 
billion shares moving on the NASDAQ. Market breadth ended in a 
draw on the NYSE, while winners edged losers on the NASDAQ by a 
margin of 21/16.

Internet and networking sectors were the best performers on the 
tech side while bank, brokerage, and gold were the upside stars 
on the broader markets. Oil service, oil and utility sectors 
experienced the largest declines.

Economic data saw jobless claims falling –18,000 to 475,000 
versus the 465,000 expected. October factory orders rose +7.1 
percent, inline with expectations. Retail same-store sales were 
weak and that led to a –1.2 percent decline on the retail index 
(RLX).

Although the DOW turned in a negative performance, the bulls have 
to be pleased with holding on to most of yesterday’s gains. 
Tomorrow’s employment number is expected to come in at 5.6 
percent, up from last month’s 5.4. Provided the targeted number 
is met, or bettered, the bulls will likely take another run at 
the 200DMA on the DOW and SPX.




VIX 
Thursday 12/06 close: 25.09


VXN
Thursday 12/06 close: 48.39


30-yr Bonds
Thursday 12/06 close: 5.36


Total Put/Call Ratio: .80


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .62


Index Option Put/Call Ratio:  2.40


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 42.91

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/144,904
Maximum puts : 40/130,156

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 40
 20 DMA 39
 50 DMA 35
200 DMA 40

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 596.77

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 640/5,764
Maximum puts : 500/8,143
Moving Averages
 10 DMA  588
 20 DMA  587
 50 DMA  567
200 DMA  604

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1167.10

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/47,871
Maximum puts : 1100/56,057

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1147
 20 DMA 1141
 50 DMA 1103
200 DMA 1175

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close: 10,099.14

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 98/25,677
Maximum Puts   90/47,857

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,907
 20 DMA  9,842
 50 DMA  9,472
200 DMA 10,139

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 616.29

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 620/  634
Maximum Puts:  540/1,154

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 603
 20 DMA 590
 50 DMA 541
200 DMA 536

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 584.32

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/ 577
Maximum Puts:  470/1250

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 536
 20 DMA 528
 50 DMA 475
200 DMA 560

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 395.24

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 420/406
Maximum Puts:  360/330

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 398
 20 DMA 395
 50 DMA 394
200 DMA 392

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 11/30. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
11/13/01     381,539   421,284   (39,745)    1.2%
11/20/01     369,784   415,822   (46,038)   13.6%
11/27/01     371,336   421,405   (50,069)    8.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
11/13/01       136,047    87,645    48,402    (4.9%)
11/20/01       140,507    86,861    53,646     9.8%
11/27/01       151,317    92,807    58,510     9.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
11/13/01      38,751    49,257   (10,506)   23.9%
11/20/01      38,042    46,446    (8,404)  (20.0%)
11/27/01      37,259    48,315   (11,056)   31.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
11/13/01       11,568     6,505    5,063      55.1%
11/20/01       12,933     8,230    4,703      (7.1%)
11/27/01       12,540     8,359    4,181     (11.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
11/13/01      24,145    10,204   13,941     (0.6%)
11/20/01      25,033    11,525   13,508     (3.1%)
11/27/01      24,243    11,496   12,747     (5.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
11/13/01       4,094    12,121    (8,027)     (7.8%)
11/20/01       3,609    10,565    (6,956)    (13.3%)
11/27/01       4,228    10,630    (6,402)     (8.0%)
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +58,510     +53,646        -50,069     -46,038

Total Open
Interest %       (+23.97%)  (+23.59%)      (-6.32%)   (-5.86%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -4,228     -6,956          +12,747    13,508
Total Open
interest %       (-43.09%)    (-49.07%)      (+35.67%)  (+36.94)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +4,181      +4,703         -11,056    -8,404

Total Open
Interest %        (+20.01%)   (+22.22%)     (-12.92%) (-9.95%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices: We’ve seen the Commercials add to their net-short 
positions for the second week in a row after being stationary for 
a month. Is this a bearish sign? Too early to tell, but as we 
said last week, a failure to go net-long (bullish) is an 
indication of caution, and one that must be respected by longer-
term players.

Gold: Last week we highlighted the fact that Commercials reducing 
their net-short positions by a wide margin could indicate a 
bounce is around the corner. Looking at the XAU (gold and silver 
index) this week we see that the index has enjoyed a 5 percent 
gain. Nothing to get too excited about, however, with the 
Commercials going net-long (bullish) this week, it’s worth 
monitoring.

10/30 33,199 contracts net-short
11/06 35,435 contracts net-short
11/13 23,637 contracts net-short
11/20  2,489 contracts net-short
11/27  1,738 contracts net-long

Data compiled as of Tuesday 11/20 by the CFTC.


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

NEW BULLISH PLAY
=================

Iron Mountain - IRM - cls: 45.58 chg: +0.48 stop: 43.25

Company Description:
As an international, full service provider of records and 
information management services, Iron Mountain currently provides 
services to over 125,000 customer accounts in 77 markets in the 
United States and 44 markets outside of the United States. The 
Company employs over 10,000 people and operates over 650 records 
management facilities in the United States, Canada, Europe and 
Latin America. (source: Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
We usually refrain from picking stocks the day after the company 
announces its intent to split its shares, but there are just too 
many compelling reasons to go long on IRM right now.  Today’s 
advance represents the sixth consecutive positive close for IRM as 
well as confirmation of a successful breakout above a quadruple 
top at $45.00.  Shares closed at a new 52 week high and the 
current bullish trend and technical breakout is readily apparent 
in both the daily and weekly charts.  While we would have liked to 
have seen stronger volume present for these advances, multiple 
successive positive closes in the stock certainly suggests that 
plenty of conviction does exist on the part of investors.  
Stochastics are relatively flat right now while MACD is in the 
midst of a gentle upward sloping channel.  
Here is an interesting observation.  Check out the MACD on a 
weekly chart.  If the past is any indication of future performance 
then IRM could have another few weeks left in this bullish up 
trend.

The expected split of IRM will be a 3 for 2 deal effective on 
December 31st and we will likely close the play prior to it being 
effected.  We anticipate that the stock may meet some resistance 
at 46.00, primarily due to the IRM's tendency to find 
support/resistance at even numbers ($38, $40, $42, $44).  While 
there could easily be a pullback to today’s low of 44.65, placing 
our stop at 43.25 should provide enough room for the stock to 
maneuver without stopping us out of the trade.  Moving into 
uncharted waters above the quadruple top breakout, we like 50.00 
as our target price for now.  Depending on the strength that the 
stock shows over the next few trading days, we may find it 
appropriate to revise not only the stop but perhaps the target as 
well.

Picked on December 6th at $ 45.58
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date               01/23 (unconfirmed)







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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 12-06-2001
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
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http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/3803_2.asp
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In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates: EXEL, NXTL
  Bearish Play Updates: WWCA
  Closed Bullish Plays: NVDA

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Plays: IRM
  Bullish Play Updates: SEE
  Long-term Update:     ODP
  Bearish Play Updates: MO

High Risk / High Reward
  New Bullish Plays: TDSC
  Bullish Play Updates: T
  Closed Bullish Plays: QLGC

Split Trader
   - none -


=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================


===============
NB Play Updates
===============

Exelixis Inc -EXEL - close: 15.73 change: +0.13 stop: 15.24 

Shares of our biotech play continue to edge higher but resistance 
at the $16.00 mark remains tight.  We could see some short 
covering once the stock actually trades above $16.00 and until 
then we would not encourage any new positions.  EXEL has been 
building a bullish coil or wedge beneath this level for the last 
six sessions and it would appear that a breakout, one way or the 
other, is imminent.  We would expect a move in the next two days.  
Keep your eye on the biotech sector.  The BTK.X closed up 6 points 
for a 1% move higher in Thursday's trading.

Picked on November 30th at $15.85
Gain since picked:          -0.12
Earnings Date               11/13 (confirmed)




---

Nextel Comm. - NXTL - cls: 12.01 chg: -0.24 stop: 11.38 

After the large run up in technology issues the market was 
expecting some sort of pull back.  NXTL participated in the dip 
with a bounce near the 11.75 area.  The good news for bullish 
traders was the fact that shares closed back above the $12.00 
level, even if it was by a penny.  We would confirm stock 
direction before considering new positions but anything above $12 
looks decent.  If you prefer to buy on the bounce we would look 
for shares to find support at 11.50 or 11.75 again.  Traders 
should be evaluating what their exit strategy will be.  Are you 
looking to exit at possible resistance of $13?  Or are you going 
to hang on for a potential move to its 200-dma and price 
resistance at $14?  This decision will probably influence where 
you place your stop price.

Picked on December 4th at $11.88
Gain since picked:         +0.12
Earnings Date              01/23 (unconfirmed)





BEARISH PLAY UPDATES
====================

Western Wireless - WWCA - cls: 23.62 chg: -0.15 stop: 24.61 *new*

The negative trend continues to develop for WWCA as the stock has 
completely ignored the recent rallies in the market.  As shares 
drift lower it appears that bears are leaning on it every time the 
stock trades near its 10-dma.  We are going to lower our stop to 
$24.61, which is a couple cents above the 10-dma at 24.59.  This 
move should protect a gain of $1.79 or 6.7%.  With a new 52-week 
low created today we suspect that shares are headed for the $20 
level.  If the stock bounces higher, look for trading resistance between 24.35 and 24.40.

Picked on November 10th at $26.40
Gain since picked:          +2.78
Earnings Date               11/07 (confirmed)





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

Closed Long Plays
=================

NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - cls: 61.63 chg: -1.20 stop: 60.98

After two days of strong moves, we thought it prudent to raise 
our stop on NVDA last night to ensure that we walked away with a 
nice gain.  Today’s profit taking certainly came as no big 
surprise as shares traded down to our stop inside of the first 
two hours of the session.  Profit taking may have been 
accentuated by the fact that the stock closed at a 52-week high 
yesterday but odds are higher it was due to the $9.00 gain in two 
days.  Despite this, buyers refused to allow shares to finish 
today’s session at the lows.  We were actually encouraged by the 
bounce at $60.00, which could be an area of new support.  You can 
bet we'll keep our eyes open for new entry points on NVDA.

Picked on December 4th at $55.45
Gain since picked:         +5.53
Earnings Date              11/08 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

NEW BULLISH PLAY
=================

Iron Mountain - IRM - cls: 45.58 chg: +0.48 stop: 43.25

Company Description:
As an international, full service provider of records and 
information management services, Iron Mountain currently provides 
services to over 125,000 customer accounts in 77 markets in the 
United States and 44 markets outside of the United States. The 
Company employs over 10,000 people and operates over 650 records 
management facilities in the United States, Canada, Europe and 
Latin America. (source: Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
We usually refrain from picking stocks the day after the company 
announces its intent to split its shares, but there are just too 
many compelling reasons to go long on IRM right now.  Today’s 
advance represents the sixth consecutive positive close for IRM as 
well as confirmation of a successful breakout above a quadruple 
top at $45.00.  Shares closed at a new 52 week high and the 
current bullish trend and technical breakout is readily apparent 
in both the daily and weekly charts.  While we would have liked to 
have seen stronger volume present for these advances, multiple 
successive positive closes in the stock certainly suggests that 
plenty of conviction does exist on the part of investors.  
Stochastics are relatively flat right now while MACD is in the 
midst of a gentle upward sloping channel.  
Here is an interesting observation.  Check out the MACD on a 
weekly chart.  If the past is any indication of future performance 
then IRM could have another few weeks left in this bullish up 
trend.

The expected split of IRM will be a 3 for 2 deal effective on 
December 31st and we will likely close the play prior to it being 
effected.  We anticipate that the stock may meet some resistance 
at 46.00, primarily due to the IRM's tendency to find 
support/resistance at even numbers ($38, $40, $42, $44).  While 
there could easily be a pullback to today’s low of 44.65, placing 
our stop at 43.25 should provide enough room for the stock to 
maneuver without stopping us out of the trade.  Moving into 
uncharted waters above the quadruple top breakout, we like 50.00 
as our target price for now.  Depending on the strength that the 
stock shows over the next few trading days, we may find it 
appropriate to revise not only the stop but perhaps the target as 
well.

Picked on December 6th at $ 45.58
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date               01/23 (unconfirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

BULLISH PLAY UPDATES
====================

Sealed Air Corp. - SEE - close: 46.90 change: +0.15 stop: 44.95

Today’s meager gain brought SEE within twenty cents of its 52-
week high of 47.10 set yesterday.  Thursday's trading also marks 
the fifth positive day out of the last six trading sessions.  Not 
withstanding potential external events, the bullish trend that 
the stock is in looks as if it can be maintained.  Long-term 
resistance just under 50.00 in addition to $50.00 being a strong 
psychological level for traders may exert some influence in the 
future. However, that is still more then three dollars away.  We 
did raise our stop on SEE to $44.95 in Wednesday's newsletter.

Picked on December 1st at   45.90
Gain since picked:          +1.00
Earnings Date               10/24 (confirmed)





LONG-TERM UPDATE
================

Office Depot - ODP - close: 17.18 change: -0.19 stop: 16.95 *new*

It's been almost nine weeks since we picked Office Depot as a 
long-term play for PremierInvestor.net.  Since that time we've 
come close to hitting our original stop of $12.90 when shares fell 
back to find support near $13.35 in late October.  Fortunately, 
November has been kind to ODP and Wednesday produced a new 52-week 
high of $17.49.  

The thought of an economic rebound for the country has investors 
piling into ODP.  Fund managers are probably anticipating better 
earnings in 2002 when corporate America starts hitting its stride 
again.  We are encouraged by the new leg up for the stock but have 
a few concerns and thus our new stop loss.  

First of all, we chose to look at the point-and-figure chart to 
help us see where the longer-term trends are pointing for ODP.  
The stock is still climbing from the same "buy" signal that 
started in late December 2000 when shares had bottomed at $6.00.  
The bullish price objective for that vertical count is $18.50.  At 
$17.18, the stock is quickly approaching its target.  This doesn't 
mean that selling will suddenly begin at $18.50 and stocks 
commonly surpass these "price objectives" but it is something 
worth considering.  It is also worth considering that $18.00 would 
be a 200% gain in the stock price from late December.

We've chosen to raise our stop to $16.95 based off the bounce from 
this morning's low of $17.03.  This should help protect a gain of 
$2.05 or 13.75%.  If you feel that the stock still has plenty of 
upside still in it, and it certainly could, then you may want to 
adjust your stop or even look for a new entry.  Traders interested 
in pursuing new long positions may want to look for ODP to pull 
back to $16.50, the resistance level just a couple of weeks ago, 
or its 15-dma near $16.00.  If the markets see serious selling 
pressure, ODP could fall back to the $15.50 to $15.00 levels.  

Given the late afternoon trend in ODP today, the newsletter could 
be stopped out tomorrow.  However, we still like the sector and 
are looking at shares of IKN as a possible new long play if we get 
the right entry point.  Currently, Premier is up $2.28 or 15.3% in 
ODP.

Picked on October 12th at $14.90
Gain since picked:         +2.28
Earnings Date              10/17 (confirmed)





BEARISH PLAY UPDATES
====================

Philip Morris Co. - MO - close: 45.32 change: -0.82 stop: 47.25

Shares of Philip Morris fell for the third consecutive day as 
investors continued to rotate cash out of defensive stocks.  MO 
is quickly reaching support near 45.00 and we might begin to see 
buyers step in to support that level.  This week’s gains in the 
major averages have been pretty impressive, but many analysts 
believe we have moved higher to fast and that current valuations 
are rather lofty.  If we see a bounce in MO on Friday, we’ll 
likely adjust our stop so that we have so much exposure.  We are 
still targeting the $43 as our exit point.  FYI, we did lower our 
stop to $47.25 in Wednesday's newsletter.  More conservative 
traders may want to use Wednesday's high as a potential stop 
level.

Picked on December 1st at   47.17
Gain since picked:          +0.52
Earnings Date               10/17 (confirmed)





==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

NEW BULLISH PLAY
=================

3D Systems - TDSC - close: 11.03 change: -0.07 stop: 10.74*see text*

Company Description
Founded in 1986, 3D Systems provides solid imaging products and 
solutions that help reduce the time and cost of designing products 
and facilitate direct and indirect manufacturing. Its systems 
utilize patented technologies that create physical objects from 
digital input. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
If you didn't read the business description, go back and check it 
again.  TDSC makes a pretty cool product.  Imagine taking 
electronic CAD files of some mechanical part, feeding them (or 
faxing them) into one of TDSC's machines and when its done out 
pops a life-sized 3D copy of the part.  Unfortunately, while we 
may think the technology is pretty amazing, a quick look at the 
chart shows the stock in a terrible downtrend.  That should 
immediately raise some flags for readers.  TDSC is actually in an 
ugly downtrend with lower highs and lower lows occurring every two 
or three weeks.  However, we feel that the stock could be near a 
reversal soon.  

The threat of an economic recovery for the U.S. in 2002 could have 
investors (big and small) looking to jump in before the media and 
the economic indicators actually tell us that corporate earnings 
are turning around.  In the last couple of weeks we've seen a 
couple of huge volume days when the stock actually closed higher.  
As a small cap stock, the market makers may not have a lot of 
inventory and thus they could be short TDSC to offset buying all 
that volume.  Speaking of volume, the three-month average for TDSC 
is only 51K a day.  This alone places it in the high risk category 
because we prefer equities with at least 100K average.  We found 
it interesting that on Wednesday the stock traded 392K shares.  
The stock didn't do much and actually it looks like the share 
price produced another failed rally but the bounce off the 10-dma 
on Thursday has peaked our interest.  What if the market makers 
have a buy-side bias?  If the stock breaks out above the current 
descending bearish resistance we could see some strong short 
covering.

We would encourage readers to draw their own trend lines from the 
peaks in TDSC's chart.  Start with the high in late September or 
mid-October.  You should be able to see that the stock is just 
below the trend line which has acted as resistance for weeks.  Now 
look at the 60-minute or hourly chart.  The last two months have 
shown the 200-hour moving average has also been acting as 
resistance (and currently rests at 11.43).  Now look at the 30-
minute chart.  I like to watch the 30-minute chart to get a feel 
for the intraday moves or strengths and weaknesses in a stock.  
The 5-dma (or 65 period) is about to produce a bullish crossover 
above the 15-dma (or 195 period).  However, you should notice that 
this signal has failed in the past as stronger overhead resistance 
was too much.  

We are going to put a trigger price of $11.52 on TDSC.  If the 
stock trades to $11.52 we'll hypothetically go long with an 
initial stop at $10.74.  By waiting for the stock to trade this 
trigger point TDSC should be above its descending bearish trend 
line, above any resistance at 11.50, above its 200-hour ma, and 
the 5-dma should have crossed over the 15-dma.   We know it's a 
lot to watch but that's another reason why we're playing this in 
the high-risk/high reward section.  Speaking of reward, we're 
going to target an exit price of $13.65, which is a few cents 
below the 200-dma at 13.71.  Check out tonight's wrap for Bailey's 
comments on this play.

Picked on December 6th at $ x.xx <- see trigger
Gain since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date              10/17 (confirmed)





===============
HR Play Updates
===============

BULLISH PLAY UPDATES
====================

AT&T Corp - T - close: 18.08 change: +0.51 stop: 16.95

Finally we get a move higher in AT&T.  We were becoming somewhat 
disgruntled with the stock's lack of movement in the face of both 
a broad market rally and the news of Cox, Comcast and AOL all 
bidding for its broadband unit.  Oh, and let's not forget MSFT 
playing puppet master in the background willing to toss a few 
billion here or there to make sure AOL doesn't land the deal.  
Needless to say we are encouraged by the 2.9% move in T on 
Thursday and even more excited the stock closed over $18.  Mr. 
Bailey and I were discussing where we would exit the play should 
the stock continue to trade higher.  Originally, I was interested 
in the $20.00 level which had proved to be tough resistance 
multiple times in early and mid October.  Jeff was arguing that 
the stock could trade to the $19.25 level and if it hit $19.38 we 
would have a 10% gain.  I've decided on a compromise.  After 
glancing at the point-and-figure chart for T, we're going to set 
an exit price of $19.50 for the play.  Readers should note that we 
raised our stop to $16.95 in Wednesday's newsletter.  More 
conservative traders may want to adjust theirs even higher if they 
feel so inclined.

Picked on November 29th at $17.62 
Gain since picked:          +0.46
Earnings Date               10/23 (confirmed)





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

HR BULLISH CLOSED PLAYS
=======================

QLogic Corp - QLGC - close: 55.49 change: -0.69 stop: 54.98 

The recent excitement in the semiconductor sector has been leading 
the market higher.  After Wednesday's rally, we felt it best to 
plan for some profit taking and raise our stop.  Bulls were 
probably hoping for yet another day of positive gains but the 
SOX.X bounced around between the 570 and 590 levels to close 
relatively flat.  This is a show of strength for the sector after 
the huge moves on Tuesday and Wednesday.  QLGC fell to a low of 
$54.00 in Thursday's session before bouncing higher by the close.  
At current levels, QLGC could go either direction and trade up to 
resistance at $60 or trade back to retest support at $50.  We 
would urge caution despite the strength in the SOX today.  We're 
closing the play with a positive move of $4.33 or 8.5%.

Picked on December  4th at $50.65
Gain since picked:          +4.33
Earnings Date               10/23 (confirmed)






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