Option Investor
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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 12/14/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 12-14-2001
                                                    section 1 of 3
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Penny for your thoughts
Play-of-the-Day:  From Bad to Worse
Watch List:       AEOS, BJ, QCOM, PSFT, SEBL & more...
Market Sentiment: Positive close to a negative week.

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U.S. Market Numbers
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
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       WE 12-14         WE 12-07         WE 11-30         WE 11-23
DOW     9811.15 -238.31 10049.46 +197.90  9851.56 -108.15  + 92.72
Nasdaq  1953.17 - 68.09  2021.26 + 90.68  1930.58 + 27.39  +  4.61
S&P-100  572.38 - 19.40   591.78 +  6.98   584.80 -  8.47  +  5.20
S&P-500 1123.07 - 35.24  1158.31 + 18.96  1139.45 - 10.89  + 11.69
W5000  10443.56 -301.81 10745.37 +213.92 10531.45 - 64.95  +109.73
RUT      471.29 -  9.92   481.21 + 20.43   460.78 +  2.36  +  7.11
TRAN    2577.10 - 51.16  2628.26 +116.48  2511.78 - 23.12  + 37.53
VIX       25.97 +  1.08    24.89 -  1.25    26.14 +  1.36  -  2.39
VXN       52.79 +  2.61    50.18 +  1.73    48.45 -  2.36  -  4.23
TRIN       1.06             1.18             1.19             0.70
TICK       +388             +828             +852             +976
Put/Call    .72              .78              .63              .61
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WE= week ended

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Penny for your thoughts

Now that's what I call a "play of the day!"  This stock's 
technicals may also be what patient bulls look for in the coming 
sessions.  There's still a lot of work to be done, but today's 
trade setup in shares of JC Penney (NYSE:JCP) were just too good 
to pass up.  Add to that, that it wasn't "technology" and I liked 
it even more!  Not that one of our technology plays didn't shoot 
into orbit, but a trader sure liked the setup in today's "play of 
the day."

J.C. Penny Chart - 




In last night's market wrap, we pointed out that the NASDAQ-100 
bullish % had reversed into "bear confirmed" status, so we 
decided to profile a non-tech stock as today's play of the day, 
thinking the odds of making money in a new play would be non-tech 
related.  The trade setup was very good, as the stock had 
recently made a nice run from a retracement level (retracement 
from $8.87 to $28.80) and its rising 200-day MA.  Since the stock 
had traded strong from the 200-day MA twice before, we thought 
the third time might offer the same type of move.  The "inside 
day" trade setup is simply a play on supply/demand and letting 
the stock tell you what to do.  A break above the previous day's 
high (Thursday's high was $23.25) with a stop just below the 
previous day's low removes the guesswork of where to buy/sell.  
The pattern works best for a bullish trade when a stock has made 
a nice move higher and has then pulled back for a period of time, 
and then all off a sudden starts to consolidate in a tight 
trading range.  Another thing we liked about the technicals was 
that volume spike on October 10th of 11.9 million shares in a 
very tight range of $21.80 and $22.90.  That much volume in such 
a tight range really hints that a longer-term institutional bull 
(perhaps a value fund from $12) was selling to a growth oriented 
institution at that price.  With the stock sitting right on a 
longer-term trend and just above the volume spike, our thinking 
is that its a good place for the longer-term thinking 
institutional investor to be a buyer.  All we did here was 
identify "inside day", the previous volume spike where somebody 
needed to make a decision and some type of support to bring 
buyers to the table.

In the future, if you find a stock on your own that fits some of 
these criteria, or can use the "inside day" trade technique to 
identify a stock on our play list where you can use that 
technique, then go too it!

You can also use the "inside day" technique to help with exiting 
a position.  I think that's what happened to our bullish play 
that went sour in TranSwitch (NASDAQ:TXCC).

TranSwitch Corporation




It's always nice to review "good trades" and learn from those 
like we did in JC Penney, but it is also important to review 
those that didn't work in our favor.  If we had profiled shares 
of TranSwitch (TXCC) as bullish with the caveat of FOLLOW THE 
INSIDE DAY TRADING TECHNIQUE, a bull would never have taken the 
trade on December 13th.  Do you see the "inside day" setup from 
December 12th (black box in lower left corner of chart).  Since 
December 12th trading range was "inside" that of December 11th 
(Dec. 11th range was $5.18 to $5.90) the technique would only 
have had a bull buying the stock at $5.89 (just above 12/12 
high).  The "inside day" technique would have had a bull NOT 
taking the trade on 12/13 as the stock NEVER traded their action 
point of $5.89.  But a bearish trader could have taken the trade 
on 12/13 as a short at $5.20, which was just below the 12/12 low.  
Do you see how simply identifying the "inside day" may have had a 
trader looking at TXCC on Thursday with a neutral bias and just 
letting the trading action tell you what to do?

So why not trade TXCC as bearish?  That volume spike on 12/07 and 
15.4 million shares traded on the sharp upward move from $4.50 to 
$6.38 is one reason.  Keep an eye on TXCC.  I just think we 
didn't let this one pullback enough and give her time to 
consolidate.  Somebody bought a bunch of stock near current 
levels.  We don't know if it was just a short covering a 
profitable position from up in the $50's or a new bull building 
an early position.  This stock may also be a "tax loss sell" 
candidate.  It's been a rough year for TXCC and many technology 
stocks.  A big mutual fund or individual investor may be locking 
in capital losses to offset gains elsewhere.  If the stocks stays 
down here, keep an eye on it for a January bounce when the seller 
is done with his/her tax-loss selling.

Today's market action

I think the two charts from above just about tell it all.  
Trading was very mixed and there was some positioning going on.  
There wasn't a real blockbuster economic report that turned the 
markets higher late in the session.  I do think there were some 
bears locking in some short-term gains ahead of the weekend, just 
in case Osama bin Laden is captured between today and Monday.

Perhaps today's biggest surprise (beside XM Satellite Radio's 
surge to $16.24 +15.6% ... see current play list and updates) was 
the action taking place in the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X).  This 
index has gotten above the $55 level and this is a level we 
thought might begin to indicate some "fears" of inflation, but 
more importantly, economic growth!

The reason I quoted "fears" is that during/after an economic 
downturn, a bullish equity trader wants to see some sign that the 
market is concerned about inflation.  Some inflation is OK.  The 
recent action in the bond market (selling of bonds) and now some 
bullishness in gold stocks is a hint that the MARKET truly is 
beginning to believe in economic growth.

It makes little sense that bond YIELDS are headed higher when the 
Fed has been cutting interest rates.  There has been very little 
economic data showing any type of inflation is at hand.  The only 
thing that makes sense is that the MARKET believes the Fed will 
begin raising rates in the future (Fed raises rates when it feels 
too much economic growth is occurring and inflation will become 
prevalent) or that the U.S. Govt. will not be able to pay its 
debts and therefore is selling bonds.  I personally think the 
first reason (Fed will be raising rates in the future) is why 
YIELDS have been rising in recent weeks.

We can "back this up" with our previous observation at just how 
eager the MARKET was to buy Treasuries just after the terrorist 
attacks on the east coast.  If the MARKET thought we were headed 
for some type of currency/debt crisis here in the U.S. that was 
the opportunity/reason to sell bonds.  Instead, the MARKET 
gobbled them up like crazy and drove YIELDS to multi-year lows.

We use that past observation and renewed interest in gold stocks 
to truly begin thinking about inflation.  Remember late last year 
when the media was pounding the story of tight labor force and 
rising wages causing inflation?  That was a laugh and the market 
knew it!  Bond YIELDS were headed lower (buying in bonds) and so 
were gold prices and gold stocks.  The market knew what was 
coming and the action in the bond and gold markets was hinting of 
an economic slowing.

Bond YIELD and Gold/Silver Index correlation




Just after the terrorist attacks, I wrote several articles on 
what traders could look for from the bond market and the 
Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) to get a feel for the MARKET's 
perception of how those events could impact our broader stock 
market here in the U.S.  You may find it interesting to go back 
and review those comments and check them against what took place 
and how things have panned out.  I think things have gone almost 
perfectly for what an equity bull wanted to see happen.  Let's 
look at the history of these two markets (bond market and 
gold/silver index) and see how they interact with each other.  
Only when you and I understand what they "said" and what was 
happening can we now understand what may be taking place.

Period A:  August, 1998.  This is a time when the Russian's 
defaulted on debt, the collapse of Long-term Capital Management 
here in the U.S. and a meltdown in the Asian economy and bursting 
of a bubble in that part of the world.  Not all of these events 
unfolded in August, but you can sure see how the bond market was 
buying bonds like crazy prior to many of these events as YIELD 
fell from 5.4% to a trough low of 4.1%.  The "stock" portion of 
the market and the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) was also declining.  
The "stock market" sure didn't seem to know anything was taking 
place.  It really wasn't until the Russian default and collapse 
of Long Term Capital that the Gold/Silver Index responded as 
speculators came into these stocks, fearing that currency was 
about to become obsolete and we'd all be paying for food with 
gold bullion.  The massive DIVERGENCE with the Gold/Silver Index 
rising in a six-week period from $48.67 to $87.53 came during a 
time of ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY and CURRENCY WORRIES.  We know this 
to be true as bond YIELDS were plummeting.  It wasn't until the 
Fed began cutting interest rates aggressively to inject liquidity 
into the system that bond YIELDS began shooting higher!  For many 
investors, this bond action made little sense as the Fed was 
cutting interest rates.  Why did the bond market begin selling?  
Remember what a pounding the broader stock market took in late 
1998?  I think the bond market sold off, preparing itself for one 
of the most spectacular stock market performances seen in 
history!  Not long after, the Gold/Silver Index began its decline 
with a brief spike on early worries of inflation due to the Feds 
recent aggressive posture and lowering of interest rates.

Period B:  September , 1999.  The economy is now really heating 
up and the S&P 500 is trading $1,280, well off an all-time high 
set in July of 1999 near $1,418, but markedly higher than the 
October 1998 lows of $923.  The aggressive cutting of interest 
rates by the Fed has the U.S. economy back on its feet and 
running on all cylinders, but now fears of "inflation" are 
beginning to become a realization after an aggressive Fed had 
been cutting rates.  The Gold/Silver Index jumps an amazing $30, 
or roughly 50% in a two-week time span as the 10-year bond sees 
selling, driving YIELD back to a relative high near 6.0%.  
Meanwhile the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) has pulled back to the $1,280 
level from a recent all time high in July near $1,400.  As soon 
as the rally in gold/silver stocks began, it ended as the rally 
was short-lived.  The sudden decline in the gold/silver stocks 
and the DIVERGENCE found in higher bond YIELDS spelled of another 
leg to the great bull market still yet to unfold.  The S&P 500 
was about to embark on yet another run to historical highs and 
"Period C."

Period C:  May, 2000.  Something is not making sense.  The 10-
year YIELD recently peaked in January of 2000 at 6.823% as the 
relentless selling of Treasuries had created an enormous amount 
of cash that had been feeding one of the fattest bull markets 
ever created.  What was worrisome to those that understood the 
relationship between supply and demand as it relates to bonds, 
cash and stocks, was the precipitous decline in bond YIELDS just 
prior to May.  The spike lower in YIELD to 5.616% (just prior to 
period C) saw the S&P 500 trade the highest level we have seen to 
date at $1,552.87.  "Say it isn't so!"  Was that sharp drop in 
YILED and lower high at Point C a message from the bond market 
that a change was taking place?  There was little confirmation of 
inflation fear from the Gold/Silver Index.  Why would money flow 
back into Treasuries at 6.5% and forgo the spectacular returns 
found in stocks?  With Gold/Silver stocks declining, the MARKET 
sure didn't seem to be worried about inflation.  Yet the Fed 
continued to tighten.  Bond YIELDS aren't supposed to fall when 
the Fed is tightening!  There were some stock investors that 
ignored or that were unaware of this important bond market 
action.  Some would pay a price, a very dear price.  It didn't 
make sense that bond YIELDS were falling while the Fed was 
tightening.  The correlation between what was going on between 
gold/silver stocks and a declining bond YIELD would only make 
sense in an environment of economic slowing.  Wasn't the market 
listening to the repeated CNBC commentary of how tight the labor 
pool was and the record low levels of unemployment?  What could 
an investor be thinking that would settle for a measly 6.5% bond 
YIELD?  Wasn't the bond market listening to the stock analysts as 
they were raising earnings estimates and predicting 20 to 30% 
gowth rates!  The action in the bond market and price action of 
gold/silver stocks was saying slowing and that the reward of a 
6.5% YIELD was now attractive.  What could possibly make one 
think that way?  Potential economic slowing?  Period D.

Period D: October, 2000.  Bond YIELDS continue to fall and now 
stand at 5.154%.  The Gold/Silver Index is now trading $42 after 
having traded $92 back at period B in October of 1999.  This 
could only indicate that the Gold/Silver Index and the bond 
market were in great agreement that inflation was not a worry and 
that the economic cloud on the horizon was getting darker.  The 
S&P 500 had just recently traded a new yearly low for 2000 at 
1,305, but had managed to rally back to the 1,400 level.  Many a 
Wall Street maven was calling a "bottom" and saying another leg 
of the bull market was in the making.  Unfortunately, many 
believed the tale, ignored the continued buying in bonds that was 
slowly starving the market for cash to drive stocks higher.

Period E:  May, 2001.  After a furious period of buying found in 
the bond market that drove the 10-year YIELD to a multi-year low 
of 5.631%, the bond market did see a strong round of selling as 
the Fed has been cutting interest rates since January 2001 and 
trying to stimulate a now faltering economy.  The bond market 
sold off from the mid-March lows and YIELD jumped to 5.5%.  The 
Gold/Silver Index responded in unison as that index had now 
recovered from the $42 level to a new 52-week high of $66.54!  
Aha!  Fear of inflation!  The action in the bond market and that 
found in the Gold/Silver Index made sense!  Economic growth!  
Hooray!  The broader stock market also advanced with the S&P 500 
surging from its April lows of $1,091 to May highs of $1,315!  
"Throw caution to the wind!  The recovery is at hand!"  Not long 
after May, bond YIELDS headed lower once again as cash moved back 
toward its safety.  The Gold/Silver Index confirmed the move as 
it too began falling lower!  Wasn't this the same thing that 
happened from Period C-D?  While the S&P 500 fell some 70 points 
during period C-D, there's no way the further decline in the bond 
market could be predicting another decline in the broader stock 
market.  Could it?  "Buy Cisco Systems (CSCO) at $23 and you need 
not follow it with a stop loss!  To the moon!"

Period F:  October, 2001.  Bond YIELDS are now trading at levels 
not seen since October, 1998 at 4.09%.  The United States of 
America has just been under attack on its own shores by 
terrorists.  The bond market has seen a massive amount of buying 
that has driven YIELD as low as 4.09%, a YIELD not seen since the 
Russian default, the Asian Flu and collapse of Long-term Capital 
Management (Period A).  The Gold/Silver Index has recovered 
somewhat to $55 level, but even with the massive uncertainty 
brought on by terrorist attacks and anthrax spores, the 
Gold/Silver Index is acting as that of a more rational market and 
not necessarily that of panic that was found in October 1998. It 
is the bond market that has benefited as prices surge as 
investors look for safety.  Investors fell stocks just prior to 
October as the SPX trades $945 just two weeks earlier.  The money 
that panicked jumped into bonds, even though YIELDS are just 
4.09%.  Suddenly, stocks rebound and the S&P 500 jumps an amazing 
$105 points to $1,050.  Could it be that bond holders dating back 
to May, 2000 (period C) who bought YIELD at 6.5% when the S&P 500 
was trading $1,400 pulled the old "switcharoo?"  Could it be 
those stock investors buying the S&P 500 at $1,400 finally 
capitulated at SPX $940 and now sought the safety of bonds, even 
though YIELD has fallen to 4.09%?  Cisco Systems at $12?  Just 
months ago it was trading $23!  Some thought they didn't need to 
trade/invest with a stop in Period E.

Here we are!

I've taken some "editorial" liberty to try and explain what I 
feel has happened up to now.  The different events and cycles 
that have taken place as depicted between the Gold/Silver Index 
and the bond market are interesting.  Where we've seen the 
DIVERGENCE of a falling Gold/Silver Index and a rising bond 
YIELD, we've seen spectacular bull market periods.  Where we've 
seen UNISON of a rising Gold/Silver Index along with a RISING 
bond YIELD we've seen spectacular bull market periods.  
DIVERGENCE found with a higher Gold/Silver Index, but falling 
bond YIELD has been a time of political or currency "crisis" and 
bear market results.  During periods of a declining Gold/Silver 
Index and bond YIELD, the bear market for the broader stock 
indices has been painful.

But here we are.  A period very similar to that found just after 
period A.  The only difference is found is that the Gold/Silver 
Index has yet to have spiked higher like it did in October of 
1998 (Period A).  

Gold/Silver stocks may indeed be a play next week, or in coming 
weeks.  As you can see for the Gold/Silver Index, it has not been 
a very good bullish investment over the years, but has offered 
the more nimble trader some opportunities for sharp upside 
action.

But you don't need to trade gold stocks or bonds to make money.  
We can use them going forward to get a feel for the "pulse" or 
the "psychology" of the MARKET.  We can use periods A,B,C,D,E and 
F to guide us in our trading.

I will argue that the common denominator found in a rising S&P 
500 Index has been that of a rising bond YIELD.  The proof of the 
pudding is to benchmark Period A, Oct. 1998, with that of the SPX 
at $923, then Period C with that of the SPX at $1,400 and Period 
F with the SPX at $1,100 just after the low of $944.  I feel the 
SPX rallied to $1,100 prior to the spike lower in bond YIELD only 
due to the Fed's decision to suspend further auctioning of the 
30-year YIELD and that brief supply/demand imbalance was the 
knee-jerk reaction when "smart" Treasury bond holders that were 
holding bonds they had bought back in January-May 2000 with 
YIELDS of 6.8% to 6% dumped those bonds for some hefty gains and 
may have actually used some of those proceeds to have bought 
stocks with SPX at $940-$1,150, which is much lower that the SPX 
$1,400 level back at Period C.

I say this, not because I know it happened, but it was what smart 
money did.  Only when we know what smart money did, can we then 
begin to look for what it will do in the future.

In Period E, I didn't know what "smart money" was going to do.  
But when bond YIELDS started rolling lower, I felt that action 
was not going to be good for stocks.  It wasn't.  

This week, the 10-year YIELD finished just about flat with the 
YIELD found last Friday.  Stock seemed to suffer some of the 
consequences of this, but I think the losses found in stocks were 
simply due to profit taking.  Many stocks that were overextended 
on their charts did see selling.  There's still enough jitters in 
the market that profit taking may be exacerbated to the downside 
when momentum picks up to the downside.  

Not every stocks is in a parabolic upward trend.  I think shares 
of TranSwitch (NASDAQ:TXCC) is a good example of this.  This 
stock is still hovering near its lows and may well be a "tax loss 
sell" candidate.  Perhaps it is not such a good idea to be trying 
to buy some of these types of technical patterns right now.  
There may still be some tax loss selling still taking place.  An 
investor that is carrying some recent gains in a networking stock 
from the past two months, may decide to dump those gains and 
offset an old loss in a stock like TranSwitch.  Raise some cash 
and get ready for next year.

Weekly Action




The last couple of weeks, we've been mentioning that the NASDAQ-
100 Bullish % was above the 70% level and that is considered 
"overbought."  That high of a reading told us that the NASDAQ-100 
Index (NDX.X) was "high risk" for a bull.  That was the case this 
week as that index fell 4.1% and was the weakest of the market 
averages we follow and review each Friday.  With the NASDAQ-100 
bullish % now in "bear confirmed" status, we did see a net loss 
of 2 stocks that gave sell signals since yesterday's market wrap.  
Currently, 66% of the stocks are showing a "buy signal" on their 
point and figure chart.  Most likely it was this morning's lower 
movement that had an additional 2 stock of the 100 generating a 
sell signal.

I've highlighted some of the major declines.  The Biotech Index 
(BTK.X) fell 6.2%, the Networking Index (NWX.X) fell 14.6%, the 
Wireless Index (YLS.X) fell 6.2%, the Fiber Optic Index (FOP.X) 
declined 13% and the NASDAQ Telecom Index (IXTCX) fell 6.3%.  The 
North American Telecom Index (XTC.X) fell 4.9%.  Is it possible 
that it didn't decline as much as the IXTCX simply because it 
isn't comprised entirely of NASDAQ telecom stocks?

As you can see, the 10-year YIELD edged just fractionally higher, 
so there really wasn't any money coming into stocks from the bond 
market.  Should we see any type of sharp move back lower in 
Treasury YIELDS, stocks certainly look to be vulnerable near-
term.  With the NASDAQ-100 bullish % in bear confirmed status I'm 
very cautious with current NASDAQ technology stocks.  Equity 
bulls want to see YIELDS hang in here.  This will either help 
stem a market decline or create some exceptional buying 
opportunities for those that are patient and will trade with 
disciplined stops.  

You also see this weeks biggest equity index/sector gain came 
from the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X).  We may profile a High Risk/ 
High Return or Active Trader trade in this sector next week.  We 
will look for the "inside day" setup, where we can control our 
downside risk and look to play a sharp move higher as depicted in 
the above chart comparisons of the XAU.X and bond YIELD.

In all, the MARKET removed some risk for bullish traders in the 
future.  I'm very happy with our bullish trade in XM Satellite 
Radio (XMSR).  A trader needs to protect those kinds of gains 
that come in a short amount of time.  It's the profits from 
trades like those that when taken, will allow a trader future 
opportunities.  Traders are most often times unwilling to buy a 
stock near a good level of support only because they remember 
that stock they still hold long where they had a 7%, 10% or 20% 
gain, only to see it slip away.  When that happens, they then 
either lack confidence or capital to trade the next stock with 
the same type of upside potential.

It is much easier to take on "new risk" when you've got some 
profits in the bank, than it is to take on new risk when you've 
seen profits slip away or are holding onto big losses.  A trader 
that will lock in a 10% gain, can then withstand two 5% losses 
back to back and not feel defeated.

I want to make it clear!  Just because the NASDAQ-100 bullish 
percent is "bear confirmed" doesn't mean the entire market is now 
in a "bear market" and that there aren't some very good bullish 
trades.  

Believe me!  There is not one educated bear that isn't looking 
back at the October 1998 and that of "Period A" that feels 
comfortable right now.  You can see the "panic" that is taking 
place in shares of XM Satellite Radio (XMSR).  You can see the 
nervousness in a stock like JC Penney (NYSE:JCP) that jumped 5% 
today as the stock traded just above its 200-day moving average.  
Just the tick higher in the "inside day" technique most likely 
had some bears covering any short position that was showing a 
decent gain.

I would advise traders that are trading some of our bearish 
trades to also do the same.  When you get a 7% gain going or the 
stock looks like it is firming up, move that stop down to help 
assure a gain!  The reason we want to implement some shorts is if 
"Period E" presents itself again.  If it does, the a trader that 
is mixing in a short here and there, while using a tight stop can 
make some money if the bond market decides to settle in here or 
perhaps see some buying in the coming weeks.

If the NASDAQ-100 bullish % were only reading 30% bullish, I'd be 
much more aggressive with technology stock right now.  
Unfortunately, this indicator is high right now, but she's 
pulling back.  I know that patience will be rewarded and some 
good bullish trades are coming.

Hopefully subscribers don't feel that they have to trade 
technology stocks to make money.  Yes, they seem to move up 
quicker, but they can move down quick too.

Well, it's 01:00 EST and I'm tired.  I will see everyone here 
Monday morning.  I've rambled on long enough.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================

NEW BEARISH PLAY
=================

Comverse Technology - CMVT - close: 19.14 chg: -0.14 stop: 20.71

Company Description:
Comverse Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: CMVT) is the world's leading 
provider of software and systems enabling network-based 
multimedia enhanced communications services. More than 380 
wireless and wireline telecommunications network operators, in 
more than 100 countries, have selected Comverse's enhanced 
services systems and software, which enable the provision of 
revenue-generating value-added services including call answering 
with one-touch call return, short messaging services, IP-based 
unified messaging (voice, fax, and email in a single mailbox), 
2.5G/3G multimedia messaging (MMS), wireless instant messaging, 
wireless information and entertainment services, voice-controlled 
dialing, messaging and browsing, prepaid wireless services, and 
additional personal communication services. (source: Company 
Press Release)

Why We Like It:
Most technology stocks enjoyed a very strong November rally with 
strong gains throughout the whole month.  CMVT was not one of 
them.  The stock did make decent gains in the first half of 
November but after hitting strong resistance just north of $26 on 
the 14th, shares began unraveling.  CMVT continue to decline 
before catching a brief rally in early December.  This too would 
not last and the stock produced a "lower high" on Dec. 6th.  
Several days later CMVT would announce 3Q earnings that were in 
line with estimates but offered negative comments about the 
coming quarters.  Management expected declines in revenue and any 
recovery would be delayed until the second half of 2002 (a.k.a. 
we don't know when things will improve but you can ask us again 
in six months).  

After the earnings report Wall Street analysts began to offer 
their comments on the company and that's where the fun really 
begins.  Morgan Stanley came out with an upgrade for CMVT moving 
the stock from a "neutral" to an "outperform".  MWD's analyst 
felt that CMVT's "stabilization in orders" and a "backlog into 
January" would help improve the company's outlook.  Robertson 
Stephens took a more neutral approach and merely cut their 
earnings estimates for CMVT for fiscal 2002 and 2003.  The 
analyst for Robertson Stephens wisely pointed out that a rebound 
in the late 2002 may be too optimistic.  They felt that CMVT 
would trade range bound between $22 and $17.  The bear of the 
bunch is Merrill Lynch.  MER downgraded the stock from a 
"neutral" to a "sell".  There analyst candidly stated they 
believed the "voicemail market is in terminal decline and is not 
expected to recover" (Reuters).  MER put a $13 price target on 
the stock.  Merrill's target is not very far from the current 
bearish price objective on the point-and-figure chart (which 
happens to be a very ugly chart indeed).  

We like the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the 12th of 
December (the day after they announced earnings) combined with 
the huge volume of 18M shares (average is only 6M).  On Thursday 
the bearish pattern was confirmed and shares gapped down below 
the 50-dma in addition to closing under price support of $20.  
Friday's move helped confirm the move again as sellers sold into 
any strength approaching the $20 mark.  We are going to initiate 
the play with a stop above Thursday's high (and the 50-dma).  Any 
failed rally towards $20 could be an entry point.  Our initial 
target is $17 but believe CMVT could fall to $15 or lower.

Picked on December 14th at $19.14
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date               12/11 (confirmed)






==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

American Eagle Outfitters - AEOS - close: 22.50 change: -0.25

WHAT TO WATCH: November same store sales for AEOS were said to 
be down nearly 10%.  This news has weighed heavily on the share
price and the stock is resting precariously near support at 
$22.50.  It looks like a good bet that support will fail and 
AEOS will likely fall to $20.  The September lows were near 
$17.50 and could be the level bears are targeting before they 
choose to cover.




---

Bj's Wholesale Club Inc - BJ - close: 40.40 change: +0.05

WHAT TO WATCH: BJ is also suffering from disappointing November
same store sales numbers.  The stock has come back to support 
near $40, which also shows up as support on the point-and-figure 
chart.  A break below this level could portend strong new 
declines in the stock price.  Shares of BJ did not react much to 
Friday bounce in the RLX.X.




---

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 55.84 change: +0.84

WHAT TO WATCH:  Shares of QCOM fell below its 200-dma on Thursday 
and the bounce on Friday wasn't enough to reclaim this important 
support level.  The stock is looking weak and the point-and-
figure chart shows QCOM on a fresh new sell signal.  However, we 
urge caution.  The first sell signal in the upward trend on the 
p-n-f chart is commonly a bear trap.  Look for shares to close 
under $55 or fall under its 50-dma (54.13) before considering 
bearish positions.




---

PeopleSoft Inc - PSFT - close: 38.50 change: +0.20

WHAT TO WATCH: The software sector is still trying to maintain a 
bullish trend and the GSO.X is currently holding just above 
support at 180.  Likewise, shares of PSFT are holding just above 
support at $38 and its 15-dma (37.60).  A drop in the index could 
force a drop in PSFT.  The short-term pattern in the stock price 
is leading us to believe a bearish breakout is on the horizon.  
However, if the sector can rally forward the stock might rebound 
from its current support level.  Both bulls and bears should keep 
this one on their radar screens for the coming move.  Look for 
upward resistance between $42 and $44 and the next level of 
support should be $33.50 near its 200-dma.




---

Siebel Systems - SEBL - close: 24.51 change: -0.90

WHAT TO WATCH: SEBL is another software stock but one that has 
been consolidating for the better part of 4 and 1/2 weeks.  The 
stock is offering clear trigger points for both bulls and the 
bears.  If shares break down under $24, we would consider a short 
play.  If shares breakout over $26 (actually, 26.25) we would 
consider a long position.  UBS just recently raised their price 
target on the stock to $32, which is slightly above the stock's 
200-dma.





=============
MORE TO WATCH
=============
(legend: rez = overhead resistance)

Potential Bullish
-----------------
SFNT - nice 3 day bounce. would target $20
DRI  - big 2 day move.  would look for a pull back.
YUM  - another restaurant co.  look for breakout over $52
SRCL - nice trend. 2nd day closing over $60. consider a tight stop.
PII  - finally produced the breakout we were looking for.
POSS - showed a lot of strength this week.


Potential Bearish
-----------------
SPOT - begging for a breakdown at $20 but not guaranteed.
NMTC - look for breakdown below $30
FHCC - look for breakdown below $22


Could Go Either Way
-------------------
AAPL - 3 weeks ago broke out over $20, ran for 20%.  now it is
       back to $20 and its 200-dma.  is short-term oversold.
MGAM - just won't stop.  strong rez at $40 but buyers defending 
       at $38 (for now).  volume is drying up.  look for a big
       move one way or the other soon.  is very overbought.
BOBJ - short-trend is bearish, look for breakdown under $32.
       could still bounce back to $36.
BLL  - shares have been coiling tighter for days.  expecting a 
       breakout one way or the other soon.  would give the edge
       to the bears.



================
Market Sentiment
================

Positive close to a negative week.
by Russ Moore

After a week laced with profit warnings and job cuts, investors 
were hungry for some positive news to turn things around. This 
morning’s economic data provided a “reason for hope” that the 
economy was on the road to recovery --- enough to send stock 
prices higher.

The DOW closed with a gain of +0.5 percent while the NASDAQ added 
+0.3 percent and the NDX +0.2 percent. Volume was moderate with 
1.28 billion shares changing hands on the big board and 1.88 
billion shares moving on the NASDAQ. Market breadth was mixed as 
winners took out losers by an 18/14 difference on the NYSE while 
it was a virtual draw on the tech index.

The chip sector recovered from yesterday’s decline, putting in 
the strongest performance for team tech. Gold, insurance, oil, 
and oil service were the winners on the broader markets.

Economic data included a decline in October inventories of -1.4 
percent, much better than the -0.8 percent forecast. Business 
sales were up +2.7 percent. 

Industrial production slipped -0.3 percent however, that was far 
less than the -0.7 percent expected. CPI came in flat.

Trim Tabs reported outflows of all equity funds totalling 3.7 
billion dollars.

This week offered a dose of reality to what could easily be 
considered an overheated market. Investors had to grapple with 
earnings warnings and the realization that the train which they 
thought they had missed, was now heading back to the station to 
pick up more passengers. 

"Turn on a dime" markets are always difficult to play, 
unfortunately, that’s the state we are in right now and investors 
will need to walk the caution tightrope a while longer.


Friday 12/14 close: 25.97


VXN
Friday 12/14 close: 52.79


30-yr Bonds
Friday 12/14 close: 5.57


Total Put/Call Ratio: .72


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .66


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.11


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 40.11

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/146,974
Maximum puts : 40/118,271

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 41
 20 DMA 40
 50 DMA 37
200 DMA 40

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 572.38

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 600/6,497
Maximum puts : 520/8,220
Moving Averages
 10 DMA  583
 20 DMA  586
 50 DMA  572
200 DMA  602

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1123.07

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/51,576
Maximum puts : 1150/56,158
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1142
 20 DMA 1143
 50 DMA 1113
200 DMA 1171

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,811.15

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 98/26,235
Maximum Puts   90/47,516

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,920
 20 DMA  9,899
 50 DMA  9,589
200 DMA 10,117

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 564.59

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 560/  611
Maximum Puts:  540/1,151

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 584
 20 DMA 591
 50 DMA 555
200 DMA 537

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 549.02

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 600/ 643
Maximum Puts:  470/1250

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 558
 20 DMA 538
 50 DMA 497
200 DMA 558

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 376.53

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 420/406
Maximum Puts:  360/325

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 388
 20 DMA 393
 50 DMA 393
200 DMA 391

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 12/14. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
11/27/01     371,336   421,405   (50,069)    8.7%
12/04/01     360,315   420,919   (60,604)   21.0%
12/11/01     367,397   429,640   (62,243)    2.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
11/27/01       151,317    92,807    58,510     9.1%
12/04/01       159,336    86,534    72,802    24.4%
12/11/01       158,490    86,717    71,773    (1.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
11/27/01      37,259    48,315   (11,056)   31.5%
12/04/01      42,191    51,426    (9,235)  (16.5%)
12/11/01      45,468    51,392    (5,924)  (35.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
11/27/01       12,540     8,359    4,181     (11.1%)
12/04/01       11,808     8,311    3,497     (16.4%)
12/11/01       12,425    11,754      671     (81.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
11/27/01      24,243    11,496   12,747     (5.6%)
12/04/01      22,703    10,739   10,739    (15.7%)
12/11/01      23,135    12,576   10,559     (1.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
11/27/01       4,228    10,630    (6,402)     (8.0%)
12/04/01       3,677     9,799    (6,122)     (4.4%)
12/11/01       3,469     9,065    (5,596)     (8.6%)
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +71,773     +72,336        -62,243     -60,604

Total Open
Interest %       (+29.27%)  (+29.61%)      (-7.81%)   (-7.76%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -5,596     -6,122          +10,559    11,964
Total Open
interest %       (-44.65%)    (-45.43%)      (+29.57%)  (+35.78)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +671      +3,497         -5,924    -9,235

Total Open
Interest %        (+2.78%)   (+17.38%)     (-6.12%) (-9.86%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.No significant changes this week.

Gold: Commercials reversed course and went net-long this. 
Interesting to note the performance of the XAU (gold and silver 
index) over the last few days. The index has enjoyed a nice run 
since Tuesday.

11/13 23,637 contracts net-short
11/20  2,489 contracts net-short
11/27  1,738 contracts net-long
12/04  2,534 contracts net-short
12/11 13,626 contracts net-long

Data compiled as of Tuesday 12/11 by the CFTC.




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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 12-14-2001
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:     CMVT
  Bullish Play Updates:  ACRT, RATL, XMSR

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Plays:     TBL, SEIC
  Bullish Play Updates:  JCP
  Bearish Play Updates:  CTIC
  Closed Bullish Plays:  CAL, IRM

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  TDSC, LSTR, MCTR
  Closed Bullish Plays:  MTSN, TXCC

Split Trader
  - none -


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bearish Play
  ----------------

Comverse Technology - CMVT - close: 19.14 chg: -0.14 stop: 20.71

Company Description:
Comverse Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: CMVT) is the world's leading 
provider of software and systems enabling network-based 
multimedia enhanced communications services. More than 380 
wireless and wireline telecommunications network operators, in 
more than 100 countries, have selected Comverse's enhanced 
services systems and software, which enable the provision of 
revenue-generating value-added services including call answering 
with one-touch call return, short messaging services, IP-based 
unified messaging (voice, fax, and email in a single mailbox), 
2.5G/3G multimedia messaging (MMS), wireless instant messaging, 
wireless information and entertainment services, voice-controlled 
dialing, messaging and browsing, prepaid wireless services, and 
additional personal communication services. (source: Company 
Press Release)

Why We Like It:
Most technology stocks enjoyed a very strong November rally with 
strong gains throughout the whole month.  CMVT was not one of 
them.  The stock did make decent gains in the first half of 
November but after hitting strong resistance just north of $26 on 
the 14th, shares began unraveling.  CMVT continue to decline 
before catching a brief rally in early December.  This too would 
not last and the stock produced a "lower high" on Dec. 6th.  
Several days later CMVT would announce 3Q earnings that were in 
line with estimates but offered negative comments about the 
coming quarters.  Management expected declines in revenue and any 
recovery would be delayed until the second half of 2002 (a.k.a. 
we don't know when things will improve but you can ask us again 
in six months).  

After the earnings report Wall Street analysts began to offer 
their comments on the company and that's where the fun really 
begins.  Morgan Stanley came out with an upgrade for CMVT moving 
the stock from a "neutral" to an "outperform".  MWD's analyst 
felt that CMVT's "stabilization in orders" and a "backlog into 
January" would help improve the company's outlook.  Robertson 
Stephens took a more neutral approach and merely cut their 
earnings estimates for CMVT for fiscal 2002 and 2003.  The 
analyst for Robertson Stephens wisely pointed out that a rebound 
in the late 2002 may be too optimistic.  They felt that CMVT 
would trade range bound between $22 and $17.  The bear of the 
bunch is Merrill Lynch.  MER downgraded the stock from a 
"neutral" to a "sell".  There analyst candidly stated they 
believed the "voicemail market is in terminal decline and is not 
expected to recover" (Reuters).  MER put a $13 price target on 
the stock.  Merrill's target is not very far from the current 
bearish price objective on the point-and-figure chart (which 
happens to be a very ugly chart indeed).  

We like the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the 12th of 
December (the day after they announced earnings) combined with 
the huge volume of 18M shares (average is only 6M).  On Thursday 
the bearish pattern was confirmed and shares gapped down below 
the 50-dma in addition to closing under price support of $20.  
Friday's move helped confirm the move again as sellers sold into 
any strength approaching the $20 mark.  We are going to initiate 
the play with a stop above Thursday's high (and the 50-dma).  Any 
failed rally towards $20 could be an entry point.  Our initial 
target is $17 but believe CMVT could fall to $15 or lower.

Picked on December 14th at $19.14
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date               12/11 (confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Actrade Fincl. Tech - ACRT - cls: 32.05 chg: +0.35 stop: 29.45

ACRT gapped down this morning but investors saw the decline as a 
buying opportunity, taking shares higher on the session.  The 
stock has been trading relatively sideways since its move up on 
the 10th of December.  ACRT did retest support at $30.25 on 
Wednesday only to quickly rebound higher.  The trend still looks 
pretty bullish but the stock needs to conquer resistance between 
$32.50 and $33.00.  We were tempted to raise our stop but don't 
want to get knocked out of the play on an intraday dip (like 
Wednesday).  Shares should continue to see support between $30 
and $30.25.

Picked on December 9th at   30.96
Change since picked:        +1.09
Earnings Date               10/25 (confirmed)




---

Rational Software - RATL - close: 20.86 change: -1.43 stop: 19.98

Software fell again today, though the decline in the GSO.X was 
discernibly less pronounced than it was for shares of RATL.  RATL 
gapped down on us this morning and the stock sold off for all but 
the last hour of trading.  The buying interest that returned 
brought the stock back above the 10-dma and kept the bullish 
trend in tact but negative news this morning could continue to 
impact the stock on Monday.  A delay in the shipment of 
Microsoft's .NET tools means that RATL will not benefit from the 
product until two quarters after it ships.  While the news is 
certainly negative, the late day buying interest suggests that 
its impact will not be detrimental to the company's earnings this 
quarter.  Friday's decline in RATL has brought the stock price 
back towards support at the $20 price level, which is bolstered 
by its 15-dma - a level of support that buyers have been using as 
entry points for the last several weeks.  Our stop is a little 
tight and if you can stand the heat it wouldn't hurt to lower it 
about 10 cents to 19.88.  Given RATL's current trend, buying any 
bounce near $20 would be a relatively lower-risk entry while it's 
near the bottom edge of its ascending channel.  Be sure to keep 
an eye on the GSO.X index.  If the GSO can hold above 180, RATL 
will probably do okay.  If the sector breaks down, traders could 
choose to do more serious profit taking in RATL.

Picked on December 11th at 21.11
Change since picked:       -0.25
Earnings Date              01/09




---

XM Satellite Radio - XMSR - cls: 16.24 chg: +2.24 stop: 15.99*new*

First the accolades for XMSR's product and now the ensuing 16% 
run-up on enormous volume.  Things are certainly looking pretty 
good for XMSR.  In fact, raising our stop to 15.99 ensures that 
we will walk away with a tidy 22% profit on this long play.  
That's not to say that we're ready to take profits just yet, 
though.  You may recall that our target for this one was near 
17.00 and we're still sticking to that number.  Raising the stop 
to 15.99 also ensures that if a short-squeeze is in effect, we 
will benefit from a burst higher in the stock come Monday.  
Closing near the high on Friday is certainly a positive sign for 
Monday's open.  The range of 17.25-17.50 represents the next 
level of resistance for the stock and if the current bullish 
trend holds up, XMSR could be there relatively soon.  The 
possible impetus behind today's move came from SG Cowen's 
announcement that it initiated coverage this morning with a 
strong buy.  Please note that many traders choose to take profits 
on half their position once a stock has reached their initial 
target and leave half the position if the equity continues to 
look strong.  This may be a good strategy to apply to XMSR.  We 
strongly considered closing the play at this level but the huge 
volume and the thought of a potential short-squeeze has of 
thinking shares might be able to bypass resistance at 17.50.  
Therefore we are not issuing an "exit" price just yet but we'll 
be happy to close the play at 15.99 if traders take profits next 
week.  We would not initiate any new plays at this time as the 
stock is looking extended but that doesn't mean it can't keep 
running.

Picked on December 10th at 13.06
Change since picked:       +3.18
Earnings Date                N/A






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT New Plays
===============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

SEI Investments Co. - SEIC - close: 43.41 chg: +0.55 stop: 41.49

Company Description:
SEI Investments is a leading global provider of asset management 
and investment technology solutions. The company's innovative 
solutions help corporations, financial institutions, financial 
advisors, and affluent families create and manage wealth. As of 
September 30, 2001 - SEI processes over $1.5 trillion of 
investment transactions daily, administers more than $243 billion 
in mutual fund and pooled assets, manages more than $74 billion 
in assets and operates 25 offices in 11 countries. (source: 
Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
We think bullish traders can make a play in SEIC by playing the 
trend.  Shares of the company have made a huge move from its 
November low to current levels but the stock has been able to 
shrug off any major profit taking attempts.  Each time SEIC has 
encountered resistance shares have consolidated sideways giving 
the stock (and traders) time to digest the latest gains before 
moving higher.  It appears that SEIC may be nearing the end of 
its most recent consolidation period and could be ready for the 
next leg up.  

Before we discuss any potential trading strategy I'd like to 
mention one observation I noticed in SEIC.  Shares made a high 
near $62.50 in very late December of 2000.  Since that time the 
stock has split 2:1, so the high was really near $120, but SEIC 
had also fallen to lows near $30 in April when the whole market 
was hitting its lows.  By July 2001 shares had rallied back to 
the $51 level.  More profit taking ensued and by mid-September 
SEIC was back to sub-30 levels.  All of this can easily be seen 
on any daily chart.  What I find interesting is the trend line 
that has developed from connecting the tops or peaks in the 
chart.  The high last week for the stock closed near this 
descending trend line.  Now, many readers and stock gurus will 
claim that this resistance, formed by the descending trend line 
form the Dec. 2000 to July 2001 peaks is too old.  I am neither 
agreeing or disagreeing but thought it was an odd coincidence 
that SEIC happened to rally right back to this descending trend 
before rolling over.  Opponents can easily counter that SEIC had 
just rallied 10% from support/resistance near $40 and was 
overbought and needed to rest.  I can accept that line of 
reasoning as well.

While the Dow and the Nasdaq have been in decline the last 
several sessions, SEIC has been basing sideways.  The stock has 
found support at the $42 level underpinned by its 10-dma.  The 
action on Friday leads us to believe the bulls might be ready for 
the next hike higher.  One could argue that there is resistance 
near $44.00-$44.50 but we see $45 as the real level to watch.  
Still, a close over $44 would be encouraging (and technically 
over that descending trend line from top to top discussed above).  
While the newsletter is going to "pick" the stock here at $43.41, 
it wouldn't hurt to wait for shares to trade back over $44 before 
evaluating an entry point.  More aggressive traders may want to 
look for dips back to the $42.50-42.60 area.  We are going to 
start the play with a stop at $41.49 even though the low last 
week was $41.76.  Our placement puts the stop below the stock's 
15-dma (41.62).  It would be fair to say that SEIC is overbought 
and the MACD is looking tired but as long as the trend is intact 
we're willing to let it ride.  A glance at the point-and-figure 
chart does show the stock breaking out above its long-term 
bearish trend line and also gives the stock a bullish price 
objective near $73 (long-term target).  We are only aiming for a 
10% to 15% move.

Picked on December 14th at $43.41
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date               10/16 (confirmed)




---

Timberland - TBL - close: 36.70 chg: +1.25 stop: 34.85

Company Description:
Timberland is a global leader in the design, engineering and 
marketing of premium-quality footwear, apparel and accessories 
for consumers who value the outdoors and their time in it. 
Timberland® products offer quality workmanship and detailing and 
are built to withstand the elements of nature. The Company's 
products can be found in leading department and specialty stores 
as well as Timberland retail stores throughout North America, 
Europe, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. (source: Company 
Press Release)

Why We Like It:
This premium shoemaker appears to be ignoring the negative retail 
sales numbers that were just released this last week.  The stock 
has actually been trading higher the last several sessions while 
the broader averages, including the retail index, have been 
slipping all week.  Fortunately, for retail stocks, the RLX.X 
index bounced off its 200-dma on Thursday and the index did 
managed a positive close heading into the weekend.  If the number 
of cars in the local mall parking lots are any indication, next 
week's sales could be stronger than expected.  We like TBL for 
its new bullish trend and feel that the profit taking from late 
November into early December may have been enough for the stock 
to try and rally up to $40, where one can find its 200-dma.  Our 
short-term indicator of the 5-dma has just crossed the 15-dma and 
TBL's MACD is just about to produce a bullish crossover as well.  

Readers looking at the chart of TBL should notice the huge volume 
on Friday.  The stock traded 2.9M shares versus the average of 
just 226K.  Most of this volume came late in the day and a lot of 
it was block trades.  The reason for the volume is TBL new 
position in the S&P 400 midcap index, which took place after the 
close on Friday.  Due to this somewhat artificial move higher we 
think traders might get a better entry point if they look for a 
dip near $35.50 on Monday or Tuesday.  The next resistance levels 
are $37.50, $38.35 and $40.00.  We're going to start the play 
with a stop just under Friday's low.  We suggest keeping an eye 
on the RLX.X.  If the sector falls below its 200-dma, it could 
weigh heavily on TBL's chances to keep its own rally going.

Picked on December 14th at $36.70
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date               01/17 (unconfirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

JC Penney - JCP - close: 24.30 change: +1.22 stop: 22.25

Shares of JCP surged higher today as traders decided that it was 
time for the three-week consolidation (a.k.a profit taking) to 
come to an end.  Now that the bulls have made their move we need 
to see if they can follow through on it as they have in the past.  
Short-term traders looking for the quick profit might want to 
consider exiting near potential resistance at $26.00.  The 5% 
gain today looks strong and shares closed near their high for the 
day, which is a bullish indication for the Monday morning open.  
If JCP does pull back we would look for bounces at $24.00, $23.75 
or $23.50.  We're going to leave our stop in place for the time 
being.

Picked on December 13th at $23.08
Change since picked:        +1.22
Earnings Date               02/12 (unconfirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cell Therapeutics - CTIC - close: 25.20 change: +0.30 stop: 26.16

Shares of CTIC produced yet another test of its 200-dma today.  
The bears managed to push it back but short sellers may start to 
get nervous as the stock posted another small gain today.  
Committed bears may see this as just a new entry point to short 
the stock.  However, we are not married to it and will continue to 
watch the BTK.X for direction.  The MACD is still negative but the 
Stochastics are starting to trend up again.  We would continue to 
use caution and conservative traders may want to use a close under 
Thursday's low as a potential entry point to go short.  Keep an 
eye on the biotech sector.  If the BTK.X closes below its 50-dma, 
CTIC might begin its next leg down.  Monday could be a pivotal day 
for the index and for the stock.

Picked on December 11th at  24.54
Change since picked:        -0.66
Earnings Date               10/22 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Continental Airlines - CAL - close: 24.35 chg: +0.13 stop: 23.75

Yesterday's close under the 10-dma of 24.28 had us concerned that 
further declines could be in the wings today.  With our stop of 
23.75 just 2% under Thursday's close, there was very little room 
for volatility in Friday's session.  Shares traded south for the 
first half of the day on anemic volume and the stock bounced 
twice at $23.52.  The last couple of hours the trend changed as 
word began to spread that CAL's CEO had offered positive comments 
about the coming quarters.  Volume began to pick up and the stock 
closed off its lows and held the $24 level.  After the market 
closed news came out confirming that the CEO did say that CAL 
would report a 2Q profit as it recovers from the 9-11 attacks.  
Unfortunately, this news was too late to save our bullish 
position and we were "stopped" out at $23.75.  By the looks of 
the chart, if the broader market halfway cooperates on Monday, 
shares of CAL could begin their next leg up on.  Investors still 
bullish on the sector may want to consider new positions and use 
$23.49 as a stop.

Picked on December 9th at $25.77
Change since picked:       -2.02
Earnings Date              10/31




---

Iron Mountain - IRM - close: 43.50 chg: -0.24 stop: 43.25

IRM gapped down this morning to open at $43.50 before quickly 
trading to its low of $43.05.  Just as quickly, the stock saw a 
rebound back to the $44 level but what should have been 
(previous) support now acted as resistance.  The selling pressure 
resumed and the stock was headed lower into the close.  The MACD 
has produced a bearish crossover and we wouldn't be surprised to 
see shares continue to consolidate.  If the bulls have any hope 
it is in the coming split and the doji candlestick formation 
formed in today's trading.  Normally, doji patterns represent 
indecision between the bulls and the bears on the stock price and 
could forecast a coming change in the trend.  Traders should wait 
for confirmation but it is a signal worth watching.  The up 
coming 3:2 split at the end of the month may still become a 
factor in the short-term direction of IRM but at this point we 
would not have any expectations.  

Picked on December 6th at $45.58
Change since picked:       -2.33
Earnings Date              01/23 (unconfirmed)





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

3D Systems Corp. - TDSC - close: 11.50 change: +0.30 stop: 10.74 

We still have little to report for TDSC.  The stock continued to 
consolidate sideways as the broader markets drifted into the 
weekend.  TDSC did close up 2.6% for the session but the stock 
remains below its 50-dma which is overhead resistance.  A close 
over the 50-dma, currently at 11.69, would be encouraging and 
help establish that a new bullish trend may be in the works.  We 
are still cautious and would not initiate any new plays at this 
time.

Picked on December 7th at 11.52
Change since picked:      -0.02
Earnings Date             10/17 (confirmed)




---

Landstar System - LSTR - close: 72.65 change: -0.24 stop: 70.90 *new*

Volume continues to evaporate on this equity that already suffers 
from low liquidity.  LSTR has been consolidating sideways and the 
MACD is flattening out as well.  We are still encouraged by the 
same longer-term signals that we highlighted in the original 
write up, like the 50-dma crossing back over the 200-dma.  
Unfortunately, greater economic news may be stacking against us.  
Another fundamental reason that should have been helping LSTR's 
bottom line was the dropping price of oil.  The news that Russia 
has finally agreed to work with OPEC in cutting production to 
raise oil prices sent the March Light Sweet Crude Oil futures up 
strongly to $19.68 (from 18.77).  Volume was very strong on the 
futures.  Honestly, we would have expected a bigger reaction from 
the stock price.  We are going to raise our stop and try and 
limit any current exposure.  Our new stop will be $70.90, which 
will put it just under any potential price support at $71.  This 
will also place it within a quarter of the 50-dma (71.14).

Picked on December 10th at 73.26
Change since picked:       -0.61
Earnings Date              01/10 (unconfirmed)




---

Mercator Software - MCTR - cls: 8.00 chg: +0.40 stop: 7.45 *new*

Our bullish high risk/reward play in MCTR has certainly displayed 
some volatility.  Plus 8% one day, down nearly 9% the next and 
now its back up over 5% gain.  We are certainly encouraged by 
Friday's move and the close near $8.00.  It looks like the stock 
is building a pennant or triangular pattern with lower highs and 
higher lows.  These sort of technical patterns portend a future 
breakout the closer the stock coils into the apex of the 
triangle.  Unfortunately, this sort of development has a neutral 
bias as to the coming breakout.  Bulls will hope the prevailing 
upward trend will reassert itself and continue on.  Bears will be 
betting that the breakout is down due to the stock's extended and 
overbought share price.  The support at the stock's 15-dma has 
continued to hold up but we need to see some help from the 
software sector.  The GSO.X software index dipped lower (-1.87) 
and is trying to show strength at the price support level of 180.  
If the index breaks down under 180, MCTR may feel too much 
bearish pressure and follow suit.  We chosen to raise our stop 
again as the 15-dma climbs higher.  This time we are putting it 
six cents below the moving average to $7.45.  If the play turns 
against us we should be able to limit our exposure to 23 cents.

Picked on December 11th at $ 7.68
Gain since picked:          +0.32
Earnings Date               10/30 (confirmed)





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Mattson Tech. - MTSN - close: 7.97 change: +0.32 stop: 7.49 

All the bad news out on the chip sector this Thursday wasn't 
enough to produce a negative follow through heading into the 
weekend.  The SOX actually bounced higher by 12 points to close 
at 549.  Unfortunately, shares of MTSN displayed some volatility 
this morning and opened at 7.44, quickly traded to its low for 
the day of $7.40 before sharply rising up to $8.30 and all within 
the first half hour of the day.  The gap open at 7.44 stopped us 
out for five cents more than we had planned.  We still believe 
that the chip sector will be one of the groups to watch over the 
next few weeks but in the short-term it could suffer from 
December tax-loss selling.  We will keep our eye on MTSN as a low 
dollar opportunity to play the sector.

Picked on December 7th at $ 8.16
Gain since picked:         -0.72
Earnings Date              11/13 (confirmed)




---

TranSwitch - TXCC - close: 4.75 chg: -0.45 stop: 4.98

The sell-off continued for TXCC this Friday and the 8.65% drop on 
the session helped produce a three-box reversal in the point-and-
figure chart for the stock.  The Friday weakness in TXCC was a 
little surprising as the SOX actually managed a weak rally on the 
day.  The stock still has a lot of upside potential and we 
suspect there are buyers waiting for shares to fall to the $4.25 
to $4.00 level before they jump in again.  Confirm the bounce if 
you decide that you're one of those buyers.

Picked on December 12th at $ 5.76
Change since picked:        -0.78
Earnings Date               01/16 (unconfirmed)







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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright © 2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 12-14-2001
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/4911_3.asp
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of December 17th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      

=================================================================


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of December 17th
==================================================

  ------------------------
  Major Earnings This Week
  ------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est   

------------------------ MONDAY ------------------------

- no major earnings -

------------------------ TUESDAY ------------------------

COMS    3Com                  Tue, Dec 18  After the Bell   -0.22
APOL    Apollo Group          Tue, Dec 18  Before the Bell   0.26
BBY     Best Buy              Tue, Dec 18  Before the Bell   0.36
CTAS    Cintas                Tue, Dec 18  -----n/a-----     0.33
CC      Circuit City Stores   Tue, Dec 18  -----n/a-----     0.07
GUC     Gucci Group NV        Tue, Dec 18  -----n/a-----     0.66
MU      Micron Technology     Tue, Dec 18  After the Bell   -0.39
PSO     Pearson plc           Tue, Dec 18  -----n/a-----      N/A
PIR     Pier 1 Imports        Tue, Dec 18  Before the Bell   0.26
RHAT    Red Hat               Tue, Dec 18  -----n/a-----     0.00
SCHL    Scholastic            Tue, Dec 18  After the Bell    1.64
TIBX    TIBCO Software        Tue, Dec 18  After the Bell    0.03

------------------------ WEDNESDAY ------------------------

BMET    Biomet                Wed, Dec 19  -----n/a-----     0.22
FDX     FedEx Corp            Wed, Dec 19  Before the Bell   0.64
GIS     General Mills         Wed, Dec 19  -----n/a-----     0.63
GPN     Global Payments       Wed, Dec 19  After the Bell    0.31
MLHR    Herman Miller         Wed, Dec 19  After the Bell    0.04
MWD     Morgan Stan D. Witter Wed, Dec 19  Before the Bell   0.66
PALM    Palm                  Wed, Dec 19  After the Bell   -0.07
PAYX    Paychex               Wed, Dec 19  Before the Bell   0.19
RSTN    Riverstone Networks   Wed, Dec 19  After the Bell    0.02
SVU     Supervalu             Wed, Dec 19  -----n/a-----     0.40
WOR     Worthington Ind.      Wed, Dec 19  -----n/a-----     0.16

------------------------ THURSDAY ------------------------

BSC     Bear Stearns          Thu, Dec 20  Before the Bell   0.90
BBBY    Bed Bath&Beyond       Thu, Dec 20  -----n/a-----     0.18
CCL     Carnival              Thu, Dec 20  Before the Bell   0.18
COGN    Cognos                Thu, Dec 20  After the Bell    0.12
CAG     ConAgra               Thu, Dec 20  Before the Bell   0.43
FDO     Family Dollar Store   Thu, Dec 20  Before the Bell   0.29
GS      Goldman Sachs         Thu, Dec 20  -----n/a-----     0.90
JBL     Jabil Circuit         Thu, Dec 20  Before the Bell   0.12
LEH     Lehman Brothers       Thu, Dec 20  Before the Bell   0.73
LBRT    Liberate Technologies Thu, Dec 20  After the Bell   -0.09
MANU    Manugistics           Thu, Dec 20  After the Bell   -0.16
NKE     Nike                  Thu, Dec 20  After the Bell    0.46
RIMM    Research In Mot. Lim. Thu, Dec 20  After the Bell   -0.08
SLR     Solectron             Thu, Dec 20  -----n/a-----     0.05
SCS     Steelcase             Thu, Dec 20  Before the Bell   0.03

------------------------ FRIDAY ------------------------

CCR     Cntrywd Credit Ind.   Fri, Dec 21  Before the Bell   1.25


  -------------------------------
  Upcoming Stock Splits This Week
  -------------------------------

Upcoming Stock Splits This Week...

Symbol  Company Name          Splits  Payable    Executable
  
TTEK    Tetra Tech           5:4     12/17      12/18
SASR    Sandy Spring Bancorp 3:2     12/20      12/21
KIM     Kimco Realty         3:2     12/21      12/24


  --------------------------
  Economic Reports This Week
  --------------------------

These days it seems like every economic report is either 
the harbinger of doom or the angel of light on the coming
recovery.  Wall Street will be watching the housing starts
on Monday as well as the Personal Income and Spending reports
on Friday.  Don't forget that we still haven't seen much
December tax-loss selling which could show up this week.


Monday, 12/17/01
----------------
None


Tuesday, 12/18/01
-----------------
Housing Starts         Nov  Forecast:  1.53M  Previous:   1.55M
Building Permits       Nov  Forecast:  1.47M  Previous:   1.47M


Wednesday, 12/19/01
-------------------
Trade Balance          Oct  Forecast:-$27.5B  Previous: -$18.7B
Leading Indicators     Nov  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:    0.3%


Thursday, 12/20/01
------------------
Initial Claims       12/15  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:    394K
Philadelphia Fed       Dec  Forecast:  -17.5  Previous:   -20.2
Treasury Budget      12/08  Forecast:-$47.5B  Previous: -$23.7B


Friday, 12/21/01
----------------
Personal Spending      Nov  Forecast:  -0.5%  Previous:    2.9%
Personal Income        Nov  Forecast:   0.0%  Previous:    0.0%
GDP-Final               Q3  Forecast:  -1.1%  Previous:   -1.1%
Chain Deflator-Final    Q3  Forecast:   2.1%  Previous:    2.1%
Mich Sentiment-Rev     Dec  Forecast:   85.7  Previous:    85.8



==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CCR     Countrywide Credit Ind     41.32     +0.83
BJS     Bj Services Co             29.65     +0.80
TBL     Timberland Co              36.70     +1.25
PII     Polaris Industries         56.00     +2.25
RYL     Ryland Group               68.69     +0.68

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ACXM    Acxiom Corp                15.63     +1.53
SONE    S1 Corp                    17.46     +1.65
XMSR    XM Satellite Holdings      16.24     +2.20
NEV     Neuvo Energy Co            13.80     +1.25
SFNT    Safenet Inc                17.55     +1.12

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CC      Circuit City Stores        24.16     +2.16
DRI     Darden Restaurants         36.36     +2.12
BLK     Blackrock Inc              41.50     +2.25
ESST    Ess Technology Inc         23.08     +2.88
DGIN    Digital Insight Corp       22.81     +1.36

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

JPM     JP Morgan Chase & Co       36.04     -1.05
AMGN    Amgen Inc                  56.03     -4.16
DHR     Danaher Corp               56.20     -3.13
CLX     Clorox Co                  38.30     -2.07
JBL     Jabil Circuit Inc          26.90     -1.01

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 

RY      Royal Bank of Canada       31.35     -0.42
ASD     American Standard Cos      66.18     -0.92
BSYS    Bisys Group Inc            58.60     -1.90
PCP     Precision Castparts        26.99     -0.62




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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright © 2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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