PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 12-17-2001 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/2613_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Stocks move higher as Treasuries see selling Market Sentiment: Merger Mania Sparks Gains Play-of-the-Day: It's Not Too Late Watch List: KOPN, ABGX, SWFT, CHKP, GT ----------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Market Numbers ----------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 12-17-2001 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 9892.00 + 80.90 9930.90 9798.80 1.24 bln 1783/1368 NASDAQ 1987.40 + 34.30 1994.48 1951.45 1.80 bln 2077/1594 S&P 100 578.97 + 6.59 580.69 571.86 totals 3850/3962 S&P 500 1134.36 + 11.29 1137.36 1122.34 RUS 2000 479.94 + 8.65 479.94 470.73 DJ TRANS 2619.06 + 41.96 2619.88 2576.37 VIX 25.43 - 0.54 26.45 24.83 Put/Call Ratio 0.56 ----------------------------------------------------------------- =========== Market Wrap =========== Stocks move higher as Treasuries see selling Stocks experienced a bullish session today and that bullishness came at the continued expense of Treasury bonds as the YIELD on the 10-year ($TNX.X) shot higher to an intra-session high of 5.385%, before settling back to close with a YIELD of 5.274%. Today's action in the 10-year saw this YIELD jump to levels not seen since earlier this spring. Merger Monday! It was a "merger Monday" as the world's largest biotechnology company Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) solidified its offer to buy Immunex (NASDAQ:IMNX) for $16 billion in stock and cash. Both stocks trade higher on the session with Amgen (AMGN) gaining 6.17% to $59.49, while Immunex surged 13% to $29.06. Terms of the deal call for Immunex (IMNX) shareholders to receive 85% of the exchange in Amgen (AMGN) stock and 15% in cash (roughly $4.50 per share held). News of the deal sent other biotechs higher as the Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) lead sector gainers with a 4% gain to $587. French media giant Vivendi Universal (NYSE:V) said it was buying USA Networks (NASDAQ:USAI) film and television assets in a cash- and-stock deal worth $10.3 billion. Shares of Vivendi (V) jumped 6.4% to close at $52.10, while shares of USA Networks gained 5% on the session to close at $25.02. Today's news from Vivendi (V) follows last week's announcement that the company was investing roughly $1.5 billion in Littleton, Colorado based EchoStar Communications (NASDAQ:DISH) in a cash for stock-swap, in which Vivendi (V) looks to benefit from a major distribution opportunity to provide content through satellite technology in the United States. Shares of P&O Princess (NYSE:POC) closed at a post-terrorist attack high of $22.23 (+5.65%) after Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL) made a hostile outbid attempt of $4.5 billion for P&O Princess. Over the weekend, P&O (PO) rejected the offer with CCL, saying it prefers "love at sea" with previous suitor Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE:RCL) as it feels there are more synergies between the two. While shares of P&O traded higher, both Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Carnival Corp. (CCL) traded lower by 11.69% and 1.72% as investors in those two stocks feared the bidders may begin playing "leap frog" to win over those shareholders of P&O. If it were a game of poker, Carnival has "called and raised the pot," and it may now be Royal Caribbean's turn to sweeten the pot. Tomorrow's economic data Look for tomorrow's Housing Starts number due out at 06:30 AM EST to have an impact on trading. Current estimates are for 1.54 million new starts, which is just shy of October's 1.55 million. If some of the "housing stocks" are any indication that a strong number is expected, we see that shares of KB Home (NYSE:KBH) traded a 52-week high today at $39.72, after recently trading a powerful "quadruple-top" buy signal at $35. KB Home Chart - $0.50 and $1 box Here's one of those "doesn't make sense" type of stock charts we are finding in the market. The supply/demand chart looks quite bullish. What does make sense is the jump higher from the late September lows as mortgage rates fell to multi-year lows. This created a lower cost of borrowing for new homebuyers. At that time however, only those consumers that felt secure in their employment may have upgraded their housing to a new home, or quit renting an apartment and opted for a new purchase. Since October, we've seen mortgage interest rates rise along with Treasury bond YIELDS in the 10 and 30-year Treasury, which many mortgage interest rates are tied. The bullishness found in shares of KBH and other homebuilding stocks sure looks as if the MARKET is counting on some type of economic recovery. The economic recovery scenario may build confidence at the consumer level should consumers feel their jobs are now "safe." That type of confidence could move some consumers to make the leap to a new more expensive home. Keep an eye on KBH and other homebuilding stocks going forward. Here's another sector to help traders/investors get a feel for the MARKET's perception of how the economy is doing. Right now, many of these stocks look to have factored in some type of "good news" coming. Look for entry points in KBH back near the $35 level as a better risk/reward entry point for a bull. Watch tomorrow's housing starts numbers. If we get a strong number above the 1.6 million level and a pullback in some of the housing stocks to some good support levels, I'd look to be a buyer on the dips. If you're patient and can wait for an inside day setup, then that's even better. Transportation upgrade Shares of transportation/logistics firm J.B Hunt (NASDAQ:JBHT) surged 14.9% today to $22.29 after a major "reversal" in its rating to "BUY" from "SELL" by Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB). The firm had rated the stock a "sell" back in February, but analyst Gary Yablon said he upgraded the stock based on his belief that the company is in the midst of a turnaround driven by consistent improvements in its core truck and Dedicated Contract Services unit, which provides dedicated logistics services. J.B. Hunt Transportation Services Chart - Last Friday (December 7th) I was thinking the Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN) might be poised for a move higher. That move higher may have now found a catalyst with today's upgrade of J.B. Hunt and comments from Credit Suisse First Boston. This stock looks bullish to the $25 level near-term. I will point out that the current bullish price objective from the supply/demand chart was/is bullish to $24.50. That price objective can always be exceeded, but something to think about near-term. Here's a "transportation" stock in the same category that might offer a bullish trader a more favorable risk/reward trade near- term. CNF Inc. Chart - Looking to play the "non-air transportation" theme, I find the trade setup in shares of CNF Inc. (NYSE:CNF) compelling. I like the "gapping higher" two sessions in a row on BIG volume back to back. That to me hints that some institutions were scrambling to get a position in the stock. The recent consolidation near our 50% retracement bracket hints that the specialist trading the stock feels some "buy side bias." With a recent upgrade in the sector, I like a bullish trade in shares of CNF, with a stop just under the $30 level at $29.75. The current vertical count and longer-term bullish price objective from the point/figure chart hints of $50. I'll start out with some bullish targets from retracement at $36.21 and $39.87 to begin with, then cross the $50 bridge should the trade unfold in a bull's favor. With our MACD indicator well above zero, I think it would be prudent to perhaps initiate just 1/2 position long. A trader/investor that will do that can actually give the stock a little more room with a stop at $28. Then look to add to the position on a break above $32.60. I'm willing to bet there are some bears that are looking at the extended MACD indicator, betting the stock pulls back like it did in late July. We've talked about the impact that the current selling in Treasuries is somewhat different that what we saw back in June and July. If some shorts are on this one just because MACD is a little overextended and we continue to see selling in bonds and some of that cash gets rotated here, we might well see shares of CNF trading $36 soon. Trucking Stocks - Sorted by volume Here's a quick list of "trucking" stocks from q-charts. I've sorted them by volume traded today. As you can see, there were some "good buddy" gains found in the sector. Will tomorrow's winner be CNF Inc. (NYSE:CNF)? The point/figure chart hints of a longer-term winner and the recent gapping higher above the 200- day moving average is also bullish. Jeff Bailey Senior Market Strategist ================ Market Sentiment ================ Merger mania sparks gains Russ Moore The largest biotech merger in history, coupled with a major media marriage created an upbeat mood on Wall Street and had the major indices adding to Friday’s gains. A potential biotech powerhouse emerged with the joining of Amgen and Immunex. The merger sparked a nice rally on the biotech index (BTK) +4.03 percent, making it the star performer among all sectors. The other significant merger involved media giants Vivendi Universal and USA Networks. Retail, bank, drug and cyclical sectors enjoyed decent gains while gold, utility, airline and natural gas sectors were weak. Tech action saw chips, Internet and software sectors leading the way. The blue chip DOW tacked on +0.8 percent while the NASDAQ added +1.8 percent and the NDX +2.2 percent. Volume was moderate with 1.23 billion shares changing hands on the big board and 1.79 billion shares trading on the tech index. Winners edged losers by an 18/14 margin on the NYSE and 21/16 on the NASDAQ. Trim Tabs reported outflows from U.S equity funds of 1 billion dollars for the five days ending December 13. The fund flow tracker said it remains bearish despite new offerings of 17.6 billion dollars in the first two weeks of December, a record for the month. The company said it will hold on to its’ bearish sentiment until corporate investors show more bullishness by increasing buyback activity and new cash takeovers. End of year re-balancing, triple witching, and lighter volume could make for a volatile-trading week. Traders will have to be quick on the draw for entry/exit, and should be using high-risk capital only. Monday 12/17 close: 25.43 VXN Monday 12/17 close: 51.05 30-yr Bonds Monday 12/17 close: 5.66 Total Put/Call Ratio: .62 Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .54 Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.04 === NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ) 52-Week High: 103.51 52-Week Low: 28.19 Current close: 40.80 Volume/Open Interest Maximum calls: 40/182,367 Maximum puts : 40/134,134 Moving Averages 10 DMA 41 20 DMA 40 50 DMA 37 200 DMA 40 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 27.00 (09/21/01) 38% 36.60 50% 39.57 62% 42.59 === S&P 100 Index (OEX) 52-Week High: 834.93 52-Week Low: 491.70 Current close: 578.97 Volume/Open Interest Maximum calls: 600/6,999 Maximum puts : 500/8,469 Moving Averages 10 DMA 583 20 DMA 585 50 DMA 572 200 DMA 602 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 480.07 (09/21/01) 38% 556.14 50% 579.65 62% 603.55 === S&P 500 (SPX) 52-Week High: 1530.01 52-Week Low: 965.80 Current close: 1136.36 Volume / Open Interest Maximum calls: 1150/51,894 Maximum puts : 1150/56,168 Moving Averages 10 DMA 1143 20 DMA 1142 50 DMA 1114 200 DMA 1171 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 944.75 (09/21/01) 38% 1086.75 50% 1130.62 62% 1175.23 == DJIA (INDU) 52-Week High: 11,518.83 52-Week Low: 8,235.81 Current close: 9,891.97 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 98/26,253 Maximum Puts 90/47,514 Moving Averages: 10 DMA 9,933 20 DMA 9,900 50 DMA 9,604 200 DMA 10,113 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01) Relative Low 8,062.34 (05/21/01) 38% 9,308.92 50% 9,693.99 62% 10,085.60 == Biotech Index (BTK) 52-Week High: 811.61 52-Week Low: 383.28 Current close: 587.13 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 560/ 611 Maximum Puts: 540/1,151 Moving Averages 10 DMA 584 20 DMA 591 50 DMA 558 200 DMA 537 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00) Relative Low: 383.28 (03/22/01) 38% 546.22 50% 596.57 62% 646.71 == Semiconductor Index (SOX) 52-Week High: 1280.84 52-Week Low: 362.00 Current close: 563.87 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 600/ 649 Maximum Puts: 470/1250 Moving Averages 10 DMA 563 20 DMA 540 50 DMA 500 200 DMA 558 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 343.93 (09/27/01) 38% 484.50 50% 527.18 62% 570.57 == Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) 52-Week High: 455.28 52-Week Low: 339.49 Current close: 377.95 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 420/306 Maximum Puts: 360/325 Moving Averages 10 DMA 386 20 DMA 392 50 DMA 393 200 DMA 391 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00) Relative Low: 339.49 (03/22/01) 38% 382.22 50% 395.69 62% 409.03 ***** CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 12/14. Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the Chicago Board Of Trade. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in favor of the commercial trader’s direction. S&P 500 Commercials Long Short Net %Change 11/27/01 371,336 421,405 (50,069) 8.7% 12/04/01 360,315 420,919 (60,604) 21.0% 12/11/01 367,397 429,640 (62,243) 2.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01 Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144) - 5/1/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 11/27/01 151,317 92,807 58,510 9.1% 12/04/01 159,336 86,534 72,802 24.4% 12/11/01 158,490 86,717 71,773 (1.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 91,122 - 3/06/01 NASDAQ-100 Commercials Long Short Net %Change 11/27/01 37,259 48,315 (11,056) 31.5% 12/04/01 42,191 51,426 (9,235) (16.5%) 12/11/01 45,468 51,392 (5,924) (35.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01 Most bullish reading of the year: (1,825) - 1/02/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 11/27/01 12,540 8,359 4,181 (11.1%) 12/04/01 11,808 8,311 3,497 (16.4%) 12/11/01 12,425 11,754 671 (81.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (1,028) - 1/02/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/01 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercials Long Short Net %Change 11/27/01 24,243 11,496 12,747 (5.6%) 12/04/01 22,703 10,739 10,739 (15.7%) 12/11/01 23,135 12,576 10,559 (1.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,925 - 5/22/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 11/27/01 4,228 10,630 (6,402) (8.0%) 12/04/01 3,677 9,799 (6,122) (4.4%) 12/11/01 3,469 9,065 (5,596) (8.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (7,572) - 5/08/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 Small Specs Commercials S&P 500 (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value +71,773 +72,336 -62,243 -60,604 Total Open Interest % (+29.27%) (+29.61%) (-7.81%) (-7.76%) net-long net-long net-short net-short Small Specs Commercials DJIA futures (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value -5,596 -6,122 +10,559 11,964 Total Open interest % (-44.65%) (-45.43%) (+29.57%) (+35.78) net-short net-short net-long net-long Small Spec Commercials NASDAQ 100 (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value +671 +3,497 -5,924 -9,235 Total Open Interest % (+2.78%) (+17.38%) (-6.12%) (-9.86%) net-long net-long net-short net-short What COT Data Tells Us ---------------------- Indices:.No significant changes this week. Gold: Commercials reversed course and went net-long this week. Interesting to note the performance of the XAU (gold and silver index) over the last few days. The index has enjoyed a nice run since Tuesday. 11/13 23,637 contracts net-short 11/20 2,489 contracts net-short 11/27 1,738 contracts net-long 12/04 2,534 contracts net-short 12/11 13,626 contracts net-long Data compiled as of Tuesday 12/11 by the CFTC. ========================= Play-of-the-Day (Bullish) ========================= Mercator Software - MCTR - cls: 8.20 chg: +0.20 stop: 7.45 Company Description: Mercator Software's intelligent business integration solutions unify any internal operations and connect them with partners and customers while leveraging current technology investments. Over 7,000 businesses, including more than 1,100 enterprise customers in financial services, healthcare, utilities, manufacturing, retail, and distribution, use Mercator software to maximize their performance. (source: Company Press Release) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP: Dec. 11th, 2001 - Why We Like It: MCTR is a turnaround success story for the fall 2001. Shares languished for months between $1.50 and $3.00 over most of the summer. When the market crashed in September, the selling brought MCTR to a low near $1.00. However, when the market turnaround began in October, shares of MCTR joined the run and have not looked back. The company announced earnings on October 30th, 2001 and the numbers were positive. Revenue of $35M was a 20% improvement over the previous quarter. The company's net loss narrowed from $6.1M (previous quarter) to only $1.2M. Any CEO is always willing to share positive remarks about their company but investors were happy to hear MCTR's CEO announce that the company had significantly reduced their cash burn and increased their cash balances by the end of the third quarter. It was only a couple of days later that shares of MCTR closed over its 200-dma. Many readers used the 10-dma as a guide for short-term support or resistance. This indicator has worked well for MCTR over the last two months but twice the stock has fallen through it. It has not fallen through its 15-dma since it crossed over the indicator in early October. Buyers were waiting again when MCTR fell to its 15-dma on Monday. Our biggest concern, and the concern of any trader would be MCTR's status of being so overbought. Fortunately, we feel the drop from $9 to $7 from Wednesday last week to Monday this week represents a 22% round of profit taking. This may be enough of a pull back to allow for the next leg up in the stock price. Shares bounced off its 15-dma today helping reconfirm it as support. We are going to add the stock today at 7.68 and start the play with a stop at 6.84, which is a few cents under Monday's low. Our goal is to exit the play near $10. More conservative traders may want to wait for shares to close over the $8.00 level as confirmation of the new trend. We did glance at the point-and-figure chart and long-term investors should aim for a bullish price target north of $20 but don't let that prevent you from applying stops to protect your capital. - Most Recent Update, Friday, December 14th, 2001 - Our bullish high risk/reward play in MCTR has certainly displayed some volatility. Plus 8% one day, down nearly 9% the next and now its back up over 5% gain. We are certainly encouraged by Friday's move and the close near $8.00. It looks like the stock is building a pennant or triangular pattern with lower highs and higher lows. These sort of technical patterns portend a future breakout the closer the stock coils into the apex of the triangle. Unfortunately, this sort of development has a neutral bias as to the coming breakout. Bulls will hope the prevailing upward trend will reassert itself and continue on. Bears will be betting that the breakout is down due to the stock's extended and overbought share price. The support at the stock's 15-dma has continued to hold up but we need to see some help from the software sector. The GSO.X software index dipped lower (-1.87) and is trying to show strength at the price support level of 180. If the index breaks down under 180, MCTR may feel too much bearish pressure and follow suit. We chosen to raise our stop again as the 15-dma climbs higher. This time we are putting it six cents below the moving average to $7.45. If the play turns against us we should be able to limit our exposure to 23 cents. - Play-of-the-Day Comments, Monday, Dec. 17th, 2001 - The positive moves in the GSO.X software index and MSFT were encouraging signs for software traders and MCTR rallied off its Monday low of $7.75. We feel that this is still a decent entry point to try and catch MCTR's next attempt at the $10 level. Our current stop at $7.45 is a few cents below Thursday's low of $7.52. More conservative traders might be able to tighten their stop by placing it a couple of cents below the 15-dma near 7.65. MCTR is in our high risk/high reward section of the play list and may not be appropriate for all traders. Picked on December 11th at $ 7.68 Gain since picked: +0.52 Earnings Date 10/30 (confirmed) ========== Watch List ========== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. ----------- Kopin Corp. - KOPN - close: 15.23 change: +0.41 WHAT TO WATCH: While not overly enthusiastic about KOPN, the stock has caught our attention. As part of the chip industry, shares of the stock have seen a powerful rally through October and November. The stock topped out near $19 and investors decided to do some profit taking. This is natural and buyers have decided to step in again near the $15 level and just above its 50-dma. Part of our curiosity is based on the 2.8M shares in volume today versus the average of just 1.36M shares. It is possible that KOPN's upgrade to a "buy" may have had something to do with it. We would be tempted to consider a bullish play on the stock with a stop under today's or Friday's low and a target near $19 (the highs two weeks ago). KOPN will likely see resistance near $16.75. You'll definitely want to confirm stock direction. Bears might want to look for the stock to close under its 50-dma. If this occurs, shares might fall to its 200-dma near $11. --- Abgenix – ABGX - close: 32.28 change: +1.50 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of biotech company ABGX have followed closely with the rise of the index BTK.X. When the index began to see profit taking, so did ABGX. Now that the group is rebounding, in part to the positive reception of AMGN's bid for IMNX, shares of ABGX are also beginning to make a comeback. The stock has reconfirmed price support near $30, which is underpinned by both its 50 & 200-dma. Bullish traders might want to look for potential entries with the stock above $32 or dips back to $31. Bulls will probably target the $37 - $38 area. Bears will be watching to see if the rally in biotechs fail. If this occurs, watch for ABGX to lose its 200-dma and close below $30. --- Swift Transportation – SWFT – close: 21.97 change: +0.67 WHAT TO WATCH: An upgrade of trucking company JBHT by CS First Boston today reflected well on the entire transport sector including shares of SWFT. The Dow Jones TRAN index has just crossed over its 10-dma and might be ready for its next short- term rally higher. Likewise, SWFT has regained its own 10-dma and bounced higher on very strong volume. We suspect there was stronger institutional buying today and if shares get over the $22 mark we might consider a bullish position. The stock appears to have some tough resistance near $23 but a volume-fueled rally might be able to break through it. --- Check Point Software – CHKP – close: 43.30 change: +2.49 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of CHKP were very active today on word that the Israeli company would strengthen its current relationship with cell phone-maker Nokia. CHKP has been slowly fighting its way higher after hitting its recent low near $36.50. The stock's bounce at $40 on Friday may have solidified that area as support and bulls could be ready to buy the next dip but the bigger challenge is CHKP's 200-dma creeping closer at $44.95. Aggressive traders can look for the dip towards $40, more conservative traders may want to wait for the stock to close over its 200-dma (or the $45 mark). --- Goodyear Tire and Rubber – GT – close: 24.55 change: +0.51 WHAT TO WATCH: We have had our eye on shares of GT for some time but it appeared the stock was about to breakdown below support of $21.60 in late November/early December and fall back to the $20 level which would have been a preferable entry point. This changed when the company and almost the whole industry announced price increases for their products. On the 11th of December, GT said it would raise its prices on Jan. 1st by as much as 5% for many consumer tires and 3% on many of its medium commercial truck tires. This price increase should boost earnings significantly and consumers will see the increase in GT's Goodyear, Dunlop, Kelly and Steelmark brand names. Most other large tire makers have announced similar increases. Analysts cheer the move and one recently upgraded the stock from "market perform" to "strong buy". The stock has now traded above price resistance near $23.65 only to run right into its 200-dma. Closing one cent above the 200-dma doesn't qualify as a huge technical breakout in my book but it is encouraging. The volume for the last two days has been strong so we'll keep our eyes on this stock for future bullish entry points. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 12-17-2001 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/2613_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: Active Trader Closed Bullish Play: TBL Closed Bearish Play: CTIC Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== ================ AT Dropped Plays ================ ------------------- Closed Bullish Play ------------------- Timberland - TBL - close: 35.69 chg: -1.01 stop: 34.85 TBL succumbed to profit taking today after the company was added to the S&P 400 Midcap Index after the close on Friday. Our stop proved to be too tight - by a mere 5 cents, as shares dipped lower in early trading. Considering that the stock closed well off its lows for the day, we're more than a little disappointed that the position was closed out. Two days of gains in the RLX.X has reinforced our belief that a rebound in the sector may be upon us despite negative retail sales numbers. We would still watch shares of TBL for a potential bullish play. Looking at the stock in the short-term, a bounce near $35.00 could provide a nice entry point as bulls target the 200-dma just under $40. Picked on December 15th at $36.70 Change since picked: -1.85 Earnings Date 01/17 (unconfirmed) ------------------- Closed Bearish Play ------------------- Cell Therapeutics - CTIC - close: 25.76 chg: +0.56 stop: 26.16 On Friday we said that Monday could be a pivotal day for the biotech index and our bearish play for CTIC. Shares of CTIC closed higher as biotech rebounded to finish the session just off the best levels of the day. The BTK.X gained over 22 points to close at 587, which is over the previous support level of 580. Though CTIC closed off its best levels, shares saw strong buying volume early in the session, effectively wiping out our short position as the stock traded to $26.40. Interestingly, the last two days of higher closes in CTIC have come on falling daily volume, causing us to wonder if this might be a bull trap. Today's close is only a few cents above the 200-dma so we're still not convinced that the stock is ready for a new leg up. As traders, we might be tempted to look for a potential long position if shares are truly reversing but with so much price congestion between $26 and $31 it could be a tough climb. We are a little skeptical in this rally for the Biotechs and wonder how much of it might just be temporary excitement over the AMGN/IMNX deal. Picked on December 11th at 24.54 Change since picked: -1.62 Earnings Date 10/22 (confirmed) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. --------------------------------- Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change CVS CVS Corp 29.06 +1.79 PII Polaris Industries 56.70 +0.70 WTNY Whitney Holding Corp 45.90 +2.75 AME Ametek Inc 31.58 +0.68 CHZ Chittenden Corp 27.75 +1.35 MTW Manitowoc Co Inc 30.85 +0.65 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change Q Qwest Communications 13.44 +1.11 JDEC J.D.Edwards & Co 15.20 +1.19 ACXM Acxiom Corp 17.14 +1.51 ASIA Asiainfo Holdings Inc 19.52 +1.06 SUPG Supergen Inc 14.50 +1.18 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change IMNX Immunex Corp 29.06 +3.44 FRX Forest Laboratories 79.20 +3.00 APD Air Products & Chemicals 46.55 +1.67 ACS Affiliated Computer Svc 100.51 +1.81 IGT Intl. Game Technology 66.70 +1.85 ORLY O'reilly Automotive 37.62 +2.17 ----------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change GSK Glaxosmithkline 49.35 -1.30 NKE Nike Inc 52.31 -1.54 KTC Korea Telecom Corp 20.49 -1.02 PBI Pitney Bowes Inc 38.07 -1.66 DYN Dynegy Inc 21.70 -3.24 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change BRCD Brocade Communications 35.03 -1.78 TXI Texas Industries Inc 35.83 -1.10 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. 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