PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 12-24-2001 section 1 of 1 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/122401_1.asp ================================================================= ************************* MERRY CHRISTMAS *********************** Market Wrap: Dear Santa... - Play Updates - Net Bulls (Tech Stocks) Bullish Play Update: XMSR Closed Bullish Play: ACRT StockBottom (Non-tech Stocks) Bullish Play Update: BRL High Risk/High Reward Stop Adjustments: MICT Closed Bullish Play: TDSC ----------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Market Numbers ----------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 12-24-2001 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10035.30 - 0.00 10072.90 10034.40 443 mln 1742/1200 NASDAQ 1944.40 - 1.40 1953.90 1942.07 555 mln 1786/1653 S&P 100 585.19 - 1.22 587.33 585.18 totals 3528/2853 S&P 500 1144.65 - 0.24 1147.83 1144.62 RUS 2000 485.81 + 1.79 485.93 483.54 DJ TRANS 2605.57 + 0.34 2609.37 2588.25 VIX 23.23 - 0.08 23.67 22.79 Put/Call Ratio 0.54 ----------------------------------------------------------------- =========== Market Wrap =========== Dear Santa Thanks for stopping in! I've put some milk and cookies on the table by the tree. I'm a bit surprised you stopped by this year as I didn't get my list to you in time. I do however wish to thank you for last year's stock pick. I doubted your "intuition" at first, but later that spring, the stock did break above downward trend and gave a buy signal at $63. Today that stock just traded a new 52-week high at $82.46. I'm kind of surprised that stock has done so well. The Drug Index (DRG.X) has had a tough year, but that stock (Forest Labs NYSE:FRX) has really bucked the sector trend. If you ever need a second income let me know. While some may actually doubt that you exist, I must say you're one heck of a stock picker. Hope you don't mind that I did check the relative strength of that stock back in May, and when I saw the relative strength turning up and giving a buy signal when the stock was moving through bearish resistance, I could envision you in your sleigh, being pushed to the back of the bench as Rudolf and crew headed higher. On a somber note. I lost a dear friend of mine this past year. His name was Steve. He was killed in a car crash by a drunk driver. It's a very sad story. He was headed back home in his daughter's small-sized pickup truck when some guy hit him from behind and pushed the truck he was in down the hill. He had just been to the gas station to fill her truck up with gas, just before her trip back to school in Nebraska. Fortunately for Steve's family, he was a very good investor and his family is secure in their future. Steve and I always looked forward to going goose hunting together this time of year. I remember one time it was a sunny afternoon and we were lying in a cornfield. We were just looking up in the sky and talking about stocks, family and other stuff. Then we heard a distant "skoooo-eek" sound. We knew it was the sound of a snow goose, but we couldn't see anything. We just laid there in the corn with the sun beating down on us. Pretty soon we saw the geese way up in the air. We both were amazed at just how high those darned things could fly. I started blowing on my goose call and Steve started chuckling. "There's no way you're calling those things down here, they've got their oxygen masks on and they're headed south." Well Santa, you should have seen the look on Steve's face about 10-minutes later when we had that flock of 200 "snows" with their wings locked and coming to the decoys. To tell you the truth, I never really thought those geese would come down from that altitude, but sometimes things do come down and much farther than we ever think imaginable. While I feel like I'll never experience that event again, I can reflect on what took place that day and appreciate it. On days when Steve and I would go hunting together, there were quite a few times we wouldn't harvest anything. Steve used to say in a kidding way, "Jeff... gooses are like stock profits. They're where you find 'em. And when I'm with you, they're both hard to find." He'd start laughing in his "hee, hee, heeee" type of way. Well Santa, I've taken enough of your time. I don't feel that I "deserve" any kind of gift from you this year. I know not to ask for the impossible, but if you could bring my friend back, I'd sure ask for that. Not sure what kind of pull you have with the powers that be, but I'd also ask that everyone I know have a pleasant and safe holiday season. If you've got a stock pick I'd appreciate it. I understand that there are no guarantees. As you said last year, follow with a stop and sell at my target, or at least move my stop up to profitability when the target has been achieved to help assure profitability. Thanks again for stopping in and have a safe trip! Jeff Bailey Senior Market Technician Premier Investor ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) / Tech Stock section ================================================================== =============== NB Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- XM Satellite Radio - XMSR - cls: 19.16 chg: +1.28 stop: 17.49 *new* Santa left us a Christmas present today and it sounded a lot like XMSR. Shares gapped up to $18.85 and almost made it to $20 before pulling back to the $19 level. This puts the newsletter up over 46% in the play. Bulls should strongly consider taking profits if you have not already. Many traders will sell half their winning positions and play with tight stops on the second half to try and maximize their gains. However, each trader should use his or her own style of money management. There was no news for the stock so we could be witnessing more short- covering. We're going to raise our stop to $17.49, which should protect a gain of $4.43 or almost 34%. Feel free to adjust to your own liking. We would not be surprised to see the stock trade back to $18 before bouncing higher but then shares never touched $16 after gapping up last Monday. Picked on December 10th at 13.06 Change since picked: +6.10 Earnings Date N/A =============== NB Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bullish Play -------------------- Actrade Fincl. Tech - ACRT - cls: 28.42 chg: -2.36 stop: 29.95 Among the few surprises that unwrapped themselves this Christmas eve was the breakdown in ACRT. Friday we mentioned that the stock could see some volatility but we weren't expecting it on Monday. There wasn't any news we could discern but shares of ACRT fell below support of $30.50 just after 11:00 a.m. ET and then fell through stronger support of $30 about 45 minutes later. The second breakdown came on strong volume as if one big shareholder wanted to liquidate their position but we are just speculating. Fortunately, we raised our stop to $29.95 over the weekend and will close the play for a small loss. Picked on December 9th at $30.96 Change since picked: - 1.01 Earnings Date 01/24 (confirmed) ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== =============== AT Play Updates =============== -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Barr Labs - BRL - close: 79.59 change: +1.60 stop: 75.99 We didn't have to wait long for shares of BRL to cross our trigger point of $79.05 to go long. The stock turned in a strong day gaining two percent. Odds are the attention was due to the media focus on Schering-Plough (SGP) and BRL's stake in a generic form of Claritin. We were not surprised to see $80 act as a first obstacle for BRL. Let's hope it remains only a temporary hurdle. Today's attention to SGP and other drug stocks should also serve as a warning that any negative news for the generic drug makers or the drug industry as a whole might be our undoing down the road. Right now investors are betting on BRL to follow through with their earlier comments for stronger earnings results and if they don't then beware the wrath of disappointed traders. We would look for the bulls to confirm the new upside breakout in the stock price. If they don't do so on Wednesday then players may want to tighten their stops. Picked on December 24th at $79.05 Change since picked: +0.54 Earnings Date 10/23 (confirmed) ================================================================== High Risk / High Reward (HR) section ================================================================== =================== HR Stop Adjustments =================== ------------------- Bullish Play Updates ------------------- Microcell Telecomm. - MICT - cls: 2.30 chg: +0.20 stop: 1.99*new* Shares of MICT closed up 9.5% on Christmas Eve and appear poised to make it to $2.50 shortly. Monday's move was nice confirmation to Friday's close over $2.00. We strongly considered moving our stop to cost at $2.10 and more conservative traders may want to follow this strategy. Yet as a "high-risk" play we're going to give it a bit more room to move but we're still raising our stop. Picked on December 21st at $ 2.10 Change since picked: +0.20 Earnings Date 11/12 (confirmed) =============== HR Closed Plays =============== -------------------- Closed Bullish Play -------------------- 3-D Systems - TDSC - close: 13.95 change: -0.19 stop: 13.75 Support at $13.65, near the 200-dma, did hold on Monday but not before shares dipped down to $13.25 soon after the open. The quick descent stopped us out at $13.75, our new stop from the weekend. Thus, we are closing the play with a move of $2.23 or a little more than 19%. We didn't see any news on the day and if shares can build on support above $13 and $13.65, TDSC might offer new long opportunities but it will remain a high-risk strategy. Trade carefully. Picked on December 7th at $11.52 Gain since picked: +2.23 Earnings Date 10/17 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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