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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 12/27/2001

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Thursday 12-27-2001
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap: If you're not confused yet, just wait...     
Market Sentiment: Techs on top.
Play-of-the-Day:  Confirming the Bounce

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       12-27-2001           High     Low    Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10131.31 + 43.17 10147.23 10080.87   .9 bln   2084/1066
NASDAQ   1976.42 + 15.72  1982.73  1962.12  1.2 bln   2156/1519
S&P 100   590.87 +  3.37   590.87   587.31   Totals   4240/2585
S&P 500  1157.13 +  7.76  1157.13  1149.37
RUS 2000  492.62 +  2.43   493.28   490.19
DJ TRANS 2637.25 +  7.03  2647.19  2625.43
VIX        22.28 -   .65    23.05    22.04
VXN        47.46 -  1.60    49.03    47.35
TRIN         .77
Put/Call Ratio       .62
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

If you're not confused yet, just wait...

"Buy... buy... buy" I thought to myself when I saw Apache 
Corporation (NYSE:APA) trading $49 at the opening of trading.  
But wait... the stock's down 10% from yesterday's close, yet my 
bar chart says the stock is unchanged.  What the heck is going 
on?

In a way, I guess that type of "confusion" is part of what 
happens when you're not reading every single headline and perhaps 
just "listening" to the market and looking at charts.  

Yesterday, shares of Apache Corporation (NYSE:APA) closed at 
$53.85 and this morning opened for trading at $48.78.  This was 
because the shareholders of record yesterday received a 10% stock 
dividend (10 shares for every 100 owned) and the stock's price 
reflected this stock dividend today at the opening of trading.  
In essence, today's close at $49.63 actually had the stock 
closing up 1.38%.  Confused?  Hopefully not.  If we reduce 
yesterday's close by 10% ( 90% times $53.85) we come up with an 
"opening" stock price today of $48.46.  This is fair because a 
trader/investor that owned 100 shares of stock yesterday now owns 
110 shares (100 shares + (100 shares times 10% stock dividend)).  

I usually don't call executives to pry on things, but sometimes 
they give you some guidance on things.  I called Apache's offices 
in Houston and talked with their Vice President of Investor 
Relations, Robert Dye (he was on vacation, but was kind enough to 
take my call).  The first question I asked after normal 
introduction was about today's stock dividend price action and 
how things were going to be handled on the shareholder's end (see 
above) and also with option.  Mr. Dye seemed like a pretty nice 
guy so I then turned aggressive and asked him how things were 
looking, that I've been rather bullish on their stock in recent 
weeks.  He gave me the answer I was looking for.  "Well... it all 
depends on oil and gas commodity prices and right now they're 
down."

"The answer I was looking for" you say?  That was no answer!  
You're right, but that keeps us on our toes and perhaps wondering 
why the point and figure chart is looking bullish.  It's no fun 
if you know the answer ahead of time.  What's fun and most 
rewarding is when your right, the answer becomes known to the 
broader market in the form of a press release and you're 
hopefully holding a nice fat profit.  That's what is fun and 
rewarding!

I also asked Mr. Dye how Apache was positioned as it relates to 
cash flows from their commodity mix.  He said that given current 
prices of natural gas and crude that their cash flow was derived 
by about 55% natural gas and 45% crude oil.  The bulk of their 
cash flow here in the U.S. is derived from natural gas production 
and the bulk of oil production is derived from operations outside 
of the U.S.  He was on vacation, so I didn't pry further as to 
the breakdown of where certain production was coming from.

The chicken or the egg?

For the market technician that looks at charts, today's stock 
dividend for APA is very similar to that of "the chicken or the 
egg."  Do we adjust all prior price levels lower by 10% to 
reflect the 10% stock dividend?  Or do we leave things as they 
stand, figuring the market knows about the 10% stock dividend?  
Either way is suitable in my thinking, but it may cause some 
confusion/inconsistency between charting services.

For instance.... www.stockcharts.com has adjusted their stock 
charts to reflect a 10% stock price DECREASE to make up for the 
10% stock dividend.  Conversely, some other charting services 
like Q-charts (which we use their bar charts) leaves all other 
historical prices where they've been, and from this morning going 
forward will simply begin charting the stock going forward.

In the future, if you see a stock chart of Apache Corporation 
(APA) that "looks different" you'll now know why.

Tomorrow's economic data could spice things up

Since the first hour of trading, stocks have traded in a sideways 
range and backed off their early morning highs.  While many 
traders are taking the week off, tomorrow's economic data will 
most likely be watched closely, even if it is from the relative's 
family room.  Perhaps the person that invented that 
"last/previous" button on the TV remote control invented it so 
he/she could flip over from the football game to the financial 
channel for an update of what the latest economic data is saying 
about the economy.

Tomorrow morning at 08:30 AM EST, traders will get two economic 
numbers.  The first will be weekly jobless claims where 
economists are expecting jobless claims to grow to 402,000, which 
is roughly 18,000 higher than the previous week's number of 
384,000.  Durable goods orders are also due at and economists 
expect a decline of 4.1%.

Then later at 10:00 AM EST, new home sales will be released.  
Here economists expect new home sales to be 870,000, which is 
just less than October's reading of 880,000.  Existing home sales 
will be released at the same time and much like the new home 
sales number, economists are expecting a slight decline from 
October's level of 5.17M to 5.11M.  

Perhaps the most WIDELY WATCHED number will be the consumer 
confidence numbers released at 10:00 AM EST.  Economists are 
expecting a slight increase in November from October levels of 
confidence.  Current estimates are for consumer confidence to 
come in at a reading of 82.7.

A little help from our friends

Today we "pushed" shares of SEI Investments (NASDAQ:SEIC) into 
the spotlight with the thinking that a break above the $44.85 
level could get have this stock on the move.  Today's 2% gain 
from this "brokerage related" stock is just what the doctor 
ordered and near-term, I look for some help from our friends in 
the Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X).  Let's take a look at 
shares of SEIC as they begin breaking out of recent 
consolidation.

SEI Investments' Chart - Daily Interval




Last night we were looking at the bar chart of SEIC and thought a 
break above the $44.85 level (50% retracement) could get the 
stock moving to the upside.  There doesn't seem to be a lot of 
volume in the market this week, but bulls will take what they 
can.  I like the break above recent consolidation just under the 
50% retracement level and today's move higher gives some hint 
that market makers may be seeing enough "buy side" order flow 
that they'll back off to the $48.83 level of retracement.

From here, I think a bull in SEIC wants some help from the group.  
The index we want to see catch some fire now is the Securities 
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X).  The chart pattern here in the XBD.X 
is very similar to that found in SEIC, with SEIC now getting a 
bit of a head start.  

Broker Dealer Index Chart - Daily Interval




While SEIC is not a component of the Securities Broker/Dealer 
Index (XBD.X) we like to monitor the sector to get a feel for the 
markets perception of some brokerage related stocks.  As you can 
see, the XBD.X chart is sitting right at its longer-term downward 
trend on our bar chart and just below 50% retracement (from 
09/11/00 high to recent 09/20/01 closing low).  With SEIC moving 
up today, we get the feeling we're bullish a good stock with a 
"brokerage" flavor and now want to see the "group" confirm our 
belief with a move higher.  MACD on the above chart of the XBD.X 
has been slowly drifting lower.  I'm thinking it will take a move 
above $525 to get MACD to cross above its "signal" line and bring 
some momentum players into the group.  Should that happen, then a 
near-term rally to the $566 level is certainly possible.  That 
type of move may be just the push an SEIC bull needs to hit 
his/her near-term bullish target near $48.83.

Conversely, a pullback in the XBD.X fro current levels should 
find support near the $475-480 range and that might find SEIC 
pulling right back into its recent consolidation range $41-$44.

Here is a list of the Securities Broker/Dealer components.  
(AMTD, BSC, ET, AGE, GS, JEF, LM, LEH, MER, MWD, RJF, SCH)

Tomorrow

This week has not been all that eventful, but it wasn't really 
expected to be.  There have been no earnings reports issued this 
week and that's usual for this time of year.  Tomorrow's 
excitement will come from the plethora of economic data that is 
due to be released.

The light volume in recent sessions isn't a surprise, but I'm 
willing to bet there will be a close eye by even those 
institutional money managers and traders that are currently on 
vacation.

There are a lot of indexes and stocks for that matter that are 
trading just on top of or just below their longer-term moving 
averages.  Tomorrow's economic data may not be acted on 
immediately, but a large surprise one way or the other in any of 
the data could move a sector or two.

The number that will most likely have the greatest impact will be 
that of consumer confidence.  Of all the economic data being 
released, that number is the "future expectation" number.  All 
the other numbers are "what was" type of numbers.  A weak jobless 
number or housing starts number could be "shrugged off" if we get 
a good consumer confidence number.  The thought being.... "OK, so 
they didn't buy houses in November, but confidence is high and 
December numbers will be stronger."

The opposite could also be true.  It will most likely be a 
"weight of evidence" type of trading session.

There is just two day's left in the trading year for losses to be 
locked in.  So far this week, we've seen very little "bearish 
impact" on the broader market averages from this end of year 
activity.  It could be that all the losses were booked back in 
mid-late September after the terrorist attacks when the tax-loss 
selling was done.  Not because people were trying to lock in 
losses, but that they were beginning to get a little edgy as the 
broader market indexes continued to sink to new multi-years lows 
and the "get me out at any price" capitulation took the decision-
making process of what to sell as a tax-loss out of the picture.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Techs on top.
by Russ Moore

Tech stocks were painting the boards green, pushing the NASDAQ to 
a gain of +0.8 percent and the NDX +1.0 percent. The bullish move 
was sparked by an A.G. Edwards upgrade to ATMEL Corp. (ATML) and 
an elevated Q4 estimate on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), courtesy 
Merrill Lynch.

The blue chip DOW put in another winning session with a gain of 
+0.4 percent. Volume was weak with only 875 million shares 
trading on the big board and 1.23 billion on the NASDAQ. 
Advancers led decliners by a 21/11 margin on the NYSE and 21/15 
on the tech index.

The broader markets saw forest and paper, utility, and retail 
issues leading the way while gold, chemicals, drug, oil service 
and insurance sectors slipped. Chip, networker and hardware 
sectors powered the tech team.

The job market continues to retreat according to the Conference 
Board with the November help-wanted index falling to 45 from 46.

Although we expect another light volume day on Friday, tomorrow’s 
basket of economic goodies could set the stage for an exciting 
beginning to 2002. On tap tomorrow we have consumer confidence, 
durable goods orders, new, and existing home sales and the weekly 
jobless claims. The key number should be the confidence data. 
Expectations are for a slight increase.


Thursday 12/27 close: 22.28


VXN
Thursday 12/27 close: 47.46


30-yr Bonds
Thursday 12/27 close: 5.49


Total Put/Call Ratio: .62


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .49


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 2.50


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 40.01

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/116,809
Maximum puts : 40/ 90,641

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 39
 20 DMA 40
 50 DMA 38
200 DMA 40

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 590.87

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 590/4,493
Maximum puts : 520/4,855
Moving Averages
 10 DMA  582
 20 DMA  584
 50 DMA  577
200 DMA  600

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1157.13

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/37,881
Maximum puts : 1150/33,212
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1140
 20 DMA 1143
 50 DMA 1123
200 DMA 1167

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close: 10,131.31

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/13,921
Maximum Puts   100/27,762

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,981
 20 DMA  9,956
 50 DMA  9,714
200 DMA 10,094

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 591.55

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 650/  231
Maximum Puts:  580/1,281

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 581
 20 DMA 586
 50 DMA 572
200 DMA 537

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 530.61

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 440/1,426
Maximum Puts:  500/2,296

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 534
 20 DMA 544
 50 DMA 512
200 DMA 555

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 384.55

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/525
Maximum Puts:  360/305

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 381
 20 DMA 387
 50 DMA 391
200 DMA 390

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 12/21. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/04/01     360,315   420,919   (60,604)   21.0%
12/11/01     367,397   429,640   (62,243)    2.6%
12/18/01     391,995   456,968   (64,973)    4.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/04/01       159,336    86,534    72,802    24.4%
12/11/01       158,490    86,717    71,773    (1.4%)
12/18/01       158,300    80,507    77,793     8.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/04/01      42,191    51,426    (9,235)  (16.5%)
12/11/01      45,468    51,392    (5,924)  (35.9%)
12/18/01      55,276    58,433    (3,157)  (46.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/04/01       11,808     8,311    3,497     (16.4%)
12/11/01       12,425    11,754      671     (81.0%)
12/18/01       17,649    18,626     (977)   

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/04/01      22,703    10,739   10,739    (15.7%)
12/11/01      23,135    12,576   10,559     (1.7%)
12/18/01      21,919    13,810    8,109    (23.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/04/01       3,677     9,799    (6,122)     (4.4%)
12/11/01       3,469     9,065    (5,596)     (8.6%)
12/18/01       6,790    10,943    (4,153)    (25.8%)
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +77,793     +71,773        -64,973     -62,243

Total Open
Interest %       (+32.58%)  (+29.27%)      (-7.65%)   (-7.81%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -4,153     -5,596          +8,109    10,559
Total Open
interest %       (-23.42%)    (-44.65%)      (+22.70%)  (+29.57)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         -977      +671         -3,157    -5,924

Total Open
Interest %        (-2.69%)   (+2.78%)     (-2.78%) (-6.12%)
                 net-short   net-long      net-short net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Commercials held steady on the SPX while continuing to 
reduce their net-short positions on the NASDAQ 100. Small Specs 
were headed the other way on the NDX as they turned net-short. 
Increasing divergence is of key importance and something we’ll be 
watching closely on the tech index.

Gold: It’s easy to see why gold is so difficult to play. After 
two weeks of building net-long positions, Commercial players 
decided to take the opposite side and are now sitting with net-
short contracts. Looking at the charts we see that the XAU hit a 
high point on 12/18.before heading south.

11/20  2,489 contracts net-short
11/27  1,738 contracts net-long
12/04  2,534 contracts net-short
12/11 13,626 contracts net-long
12/18 15,198 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 12/11 by the CFTC.



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

Itron Inc - ITRI - close: 30.80 change: +1.20 stop: 28.79

Company Description:
Itron Inc., is a leading technology provider and source of 
knowledge to the energy and water industry for collecting, 
analyzing, and applying critical data about electric, gas, and 
water usage. Itron technology touches more than $200 billion in 
energy and water transactions annually. Today, Itron systems are 
installed at approximately 2,000 utilities in over 45 countries 
around the world and are being used to collect data from 275 
million electric, gas, and water meters. Of those, more than 700 
customers use Itron's radio and telephone-based technology to 
automatically collect information from more than 19 million of 
those meters. Itron technology is also in use at a number of the 
newly created wholesale energy markets in the U.S. and Canada to 
provide critical billing and settlement systems for the power 
flowing into and out of those deregulating markets. 
(source: Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
We highlighted ITRI on the watch list a few days ago.  Shares had 
retraced back to its 50-dma after breakout above tough resistance 
of $30 two weeks before.  The last couple of sessions have shown 
the 50-dma to be strong enough support that the stock is 
attempting to bounce back.  Today's move was a victory for the 
bulls as ITRI closed above its 10-dma and price resistance at 
$30.  The MACD is still negative but this looks like a chance to 
get in on the beginning of the next move.  We're going to start 
the play with a stop just under the 50-dma, which has held up 
well so far.  A dip back to $30 might be buyable and we are going 
to target the $35 as our first target.  Our stop is set at 
$28.79.

Picked on December 27th at $30.80
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date            02/06/02 (unconfirmed)







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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Thursday 12-27-2001
                                                     section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/2164_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bullish Play:     ITRI
  Closed Bullish Play:  XMSR

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Play:     BGP
  Bullish Play Updates: BRL, JCP, SEIC

High Risk / High Reward
  Closed Bullish Play:  MICT

Split Trader
  - none -

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) / Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===========
NB New Play
===========

  ----------------
  New Bullish Play
  ----------------

Itron Inc - ITRI - close: 30.80 change: +1.20 stop: 28.79

Company Description:
Itron Inc., is a leading technology provider and source of 
knowledge to the energy and water industry for collecting, 
analyzing, and applying critical data about electric, gas, and 
water usage. Itron technology touches more than $200 billion in 
energy and water transactions annually. Today, Itron systems are 
installed at approximately 2,000 utilities in over 45 countries 
around the world and are being used to collect data from 275 
million electric, gas, and water meters. Of those, more than 700 
customers use Itron's radio and telephone-based technology to 
automatically collect information from more than 19 million of 
those meters. Itron technology is also in use at a number of the 
newly created wholesale energy markets in the U.S. and Canada to 
provide critical billing and settlement systems for the power 
flowing into and out of those deregulating markets. 
(source: Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
We highlighted ITRI on the watch list a few days ago.  Shares had 
retraced back to its 50-dma after breakout above tough resistance 
of $30 two weeks before.  The last couple of sessions have shown 
the 50-dma to be strong enough support that the stock is 
attempting to bounce back.  Today's move was a victory for the 
bulls as ITRI closed above its 10-dma and price resistance at 
$30.  The MACD is still negative but this looks like a chance to 
get in on the beginning of the next move.  We're going to start 
the play with a stop just under the 50-dma, which has held up 
well so far.  A dip back to $30 might be buyable and we are going 
to target the $35 as our first target.  Our stop is set at 
$28.79.

Picked on December 27th at $30.80
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date            02/06/02 (unconfirmed)





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Play 
  --------------------

XM Satellite Radio - XMSR - cls: 18.25 chg: -0.21 stop: 17.99 

Profit taking from Wednesday continued today as shares of XMSR 
slowly drifted lower.  This drift began to pick up speed in late 
afternoon and the stock slipped through our stop at $17.99.  
Shares of XMSR bounced at $17.24 and rebounded to close back over 
the $18 mark.  This bounce was a nice rebound off the stock's 10-
dma, which it hasn't seen in quite a while.  It's very possible 
that the up trend continues from here or the stock could 
consolidate sideways and digest its recent gains.  Aggressive 
players may want to keep an eye on it for further entry points. 
At $17.99, we are able to close the play with a gain of $4.93 or 
more than 37%.  

Picked on December 10th at 13.06
Gain since picked:         +4.93
Earnings Date                N/A






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

   ----------------
   New Bullish Play
   ----------------

Borders Group Inc - BGP - close: 19.95 change: +0.46 stop: see text

Company Description:
Borders Group, Inc., is a leading global retailer of books, 
music, video and other information and entertainment items with 
stores in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, New 
Zealand, Singapore, and the commonwealth of Puerto Rico. A 
FORTUNE 500 company headquartered in Ann Arbor, Mich., Borders 
Group employs 30,000 employees worldwide and operates over 360 
Borders domestic superstores, 22 international Borders stores, 33 
Books etc. locations and approximately 850 Waldenbooks stores. 
Teamed with Amazon.com, the company also offers online shopping 
through Borders.com. (Source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
BGP has produced a string of new store openings this fall and 
investors must approve as the stock price has risen dramatically 
from its November lows.  After BGP rallied up to the $20 level 
profit taking set in and shares fell back to $18.  Slowly, the 
bulls have been bidding it higher and once it again it rests 
below price resistance at $20.  However, today's close at $19.95, 
its high for the day, put the stock price back over its 200-dma.  
Volume has been light all week but that is to be expected during 
the holidays.  We suspect that if BGP can trade above $20 it 
might produce some short covering in addition to new momentum 
traders playing the breakout.  However, we're going to make BGP 
prove itself first.  Our trigger to go long the stock is $20.05.  
Once that occurs we'll target overhead resistance at $22 and 
start with a stop at $18.99.  Those traders who think BGP might 
have enough gas to get to $24 may want to consider a slightly 
wider stop.

Picked on December 27th at $xx.xx <-- see trigger
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date            03/14/02 (unconfirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Barr Labs - BRL - close: 80.21 change: -0.04 stop: 76.99 *new*

Shares of BRL confirmed the breakout move on Monday with a close 
over potential resistance of $80 on Wednesday.  Regular readers 
know that we had a trigger to hypothetically go long if BRL 
traded to $79.05.  This occurred on Monday, which started the 
play with a stop at $75.99.  There hasn't been much news for BRL 
this week but we noticed the DRG.X drug index has encountered 
some resistance.  Actually, the DRG sector began to sell-off on 
Wednesday afternoon and that dip continued into Thursday.  
Fortunately, BRL's participation in this pull back was limited to 
a dip on Thursday morning from which it quickly bounced back.  
The weakness in the drug sector is something to keep an eye on 
but if BRL can remain above its 10-dma we should be okay.  You 
may want to confirm BRL's direction with the DRG.X before 
committing any new capital.  We are choosing to raise our stop to 
$76.99, which is under both the 10 & 15-dmas.  Plus, the stock 
hasn't traded below $77 since Tuesday, Dec. 18th. 

Picked on December 24th at $79.05 
Change since picked:        +1.16
Earnings Date               10/23 (confirmed)




---

JC Penney - JCP - close: 26.21 change: +0.03 stop: 25.59

The RLX.X retail index and JCP post yet another gain on Thursday.  
More media coverage of the potentially not-so-bad holiday shopping 
season may be temporarily inflating interest in the retailers.  
Strangely, the media is quick to note that apparel did not do so 
great this year and yet JCP, like other department stores, sell a 
lot of apparel.  The sector is looking a bit extended despite its 
breakout over stiff resistance a couple of days ago.  Likewise, 
shares of JCP may be getting tired but as long as we keep inching 
our stops higher we'll let it run.  We would probably not suggest 
any new plays in JCP at this time.  Currently, the newsletter is 
up about 13.5% in the play.

Picked on December 13th at $23.08
Change since picked:        +3.13
Earnings Date               02/12 (unconfirmed)




---

SEI Investments - SEIC - cls: 45.35 chg: +0.89 stop: 42.99 *new*

Hopefully, this is the start of the next leg higher.  We picked 
SEIC several sessions ago because it looked like it might breakout 
above the bullish wedge it was forming.  We didn't expect it to 
take so long to actually occur.  The move today was very 
encouraging as SEIC closed above the $45 level, which had been 
plaguing it for three weeks.  Even though we would expect it to 
trade higher from here, SEIC could just as easily dip back to the 
$44 level again.  Now that resistance has been broken, aggressive 
traders may want to look for new entry points in the next bounce.  
The 15-dma is still acting as support (currently 43.57) and thus 
we are raising our stop to $42.99.  Besides, SEIC hasn't traded 
below $43 since Monday, Dec. 17th.  

Picked on December 15th at $43.41
Change since picked:        +1.94
Earnings Date               10/16 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Play 
  --------------------

Microcell Telecomm. - MICT - close: 2.32 change: -0.20 stop: 2.38

The pull back on Thursday for MICT was not a surprise despite our 
hopes that the rally might continue to its 100-dma near $3.00.  
The stock had enjoyed a 20% gain in just two days this week so it 
was natural that shares might see some profit taking.  If MICT 
can redefine support at the $2.30 it might offer traders a new 
entry point.  We would look for a bounce here.  If the profit 
taking continues we would look for a possible bounce at the $2.00 
level.  The dip this morning stopped us out at $2.38, the new 
stop from Wednesday's newsletter.  This is a 13.3% gain from the 
picked price.

Picked on December 21st at $ 2.10
Gain since picked:          +0.28
Earnings Date               11/12 (confirmed)






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CVX     ChevronTexaco Corp         90.31     +1.11
NVS     Novartis                   35.75     +0.52
DUK     Duke Energy Corp           39.45     +0.83
AXA     Axa                        20.60     +0.56
TXU     Txu Corp                   46.91     +1.02
CI      Cigna Corp                 91.42     +0.77

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TWTC    Time Warner Telecom        18.85     +1.36
ADS     Alliance Data              18.70     +1.55
FCEL    Fuelcell Energy Inc        17.90     +2.65
SSSS    Stewart & Stevenson Svs    19.94     +2.78
PLUG    Plug Power Inc              9.08     +1.33

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

IGT     Intl. Game Technology      71.03     +1.77
COGN    Cognos Inc                 24.90     +2.00
BOL     Bausch & Lomb Inc          36.50     +1.17
SCHL    Scholastic Corp            49.99     +1.48
HRS     Harris Corp                30.11     +1.44
MTEC    Meridian Medical Tech      28.50     +2.25

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

IMCL    Imclone Systems Inc        58.30     -5.32
SLAB    Silicon Laboratories Inc   34.18     -5.88
WFSI    Wfs Financial Inc          24.90     -1.10
ESST    Ess Technology Inc         20.68     -1.80
CPG     Chelsea Property Group     48.25     -1.05

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

- none today -



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