PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 01-07-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/6256_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Monday's Mix Market Sentiment: Streak ends on profit taking. Play-of-the-Day: All That Glitters. Watch List: CERN, NVDA, RYAN, AGE, NCR, AGN, IONA ----------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Market Numbers ----------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 01-07-2002 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10197.05 - 62.69 10300.15 10188.12 1.30 bln 1468/1675 NASDAQ 2037.10 - 22.20 2081.09 2036.86 2.08 bln 1658/2008 S&P 100 594.41 - 4.20 600.65 593.56 totals 3126/3683 S&P 500 1164.89 - 7.62 1176.97 1163.55 RUS 2000 493.18 - 6.12 501.30 493.18 DJ TRANS 2821.39 + 8.81 2838.87 2817.50 VIX 22.09 + 0.07 23.31 21.98 Put/Call Ratio 0.70 ----------------------------------------------------------------- =========== Market Wrap =========== Monday's Mix The market averages finished lower across the board to start the week. After last week's three-day bullish run, a little pullback today wasn't out of the ordinary. Decliners modestly outpaced advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq markets. Trading activity was active with 1.3 billion shares exchanged on the NYSE and 2.1 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) closed at 10197.05, lower by 62.69 points, or 0.61 percent. The S&P 500 (SPX) shed 7.62 points, or 0.64 percent, to close at 1164.89. And the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) dropped by 25.20 points, or 1.50 percent, to settle at the 1649.83 level. Sector Check Despite the weakness in Nasdaq-100, there were three technology sectors that finished higher in Monday's session. Those three included the AMEX Networking Index (NWX), the CBOE Internet Index (INX), and the AMEX Disk Drive Index (DDX). The three finished only fractionally higher, but higher nevertheless. The weakest sectors of technology were the Fiber Optic Index (FOP), the Philly Semiconductor Index (SOX), and the Philly Box Maker Index (BMX). The 2.71 percent drop in the FOP came in light of the aforementioned strength in the broader networking gauge, the NWX. Additionally, the weakness in the SOX and BMX was on the heels of upgrades in shares of Dell Computer (NASDAQ:DELL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). Needless to say, there were a few mixed signals in the technology segment of the market Monday. Elsewhere, a pullback in the financials prevented the SPX from moving higher. The KBW Bank Sector Index (BKX) traded higher early in the day, but then pulled back into the close. Last Friday, the BKX broke out from a six week consolidation. A similar breakout occurred in the AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD) last Friday. But it, too, slightly pulled back in Monday's session. For the day, the BXK finished 0.24 percent lower to 878.64 and the XBD lost 1.44 percent, closing at the 545.68 mark. The best-performing sector Monday was the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU). The gold-bug-loving group of stocks collectively finished 1.64 percent higher at 56.87. The leaders in the group for Monday were Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX) with a 3.77 percent gain, Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) with a 2.52 percent gain, Phelps Dodge (NYSE:PD) with a 2.39 percent gain, and good ole' Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) with a 1.86 percent gain. The XAU broke above an important resistance level Monday with its advance past the 57.00 level. That level had served as resistance on three recent breakout attempts. Monday's move generated a triple-top buy signal and reversed the sell signal that immediately preceded today's breakout. point-and-figure chart (Source: www.stockcharts.com) The breakout Monday further revealed the market's expectations for inflationary pressures in the next six to nine months. Hedging against inflation with the commodity and gold stocks may not be the best means of protecting capital, but don't tell that to the buyers in Placer Dome (NYSE:PDG). An active Premier Investor long play, PDG followed the XAU higher Monday. The stock tacked on 1.80 percent during the day, closing a nickel off of its intraday high. Another of Premier Investor's active long plays in Apache (NYSE:APA) performed well in Monday's session. The stock added 2.47 percent on the back of further strength in the PHLX Oil Service Index (OSX). The OSX finished higher by 0.55 percent Monday. The advance in the OSX could've reflected continued market expectations for a rebound in the trimming of supply and building of demand in the energy space. Turning away from energy, the AMEX Biotechnology Index (BTK) finished lower in Monday's session by 2.07 percent. The BTK has been weak recently, following several disappointing developments in the group. The index did reverse last Friday, after three consecutive days of heavy selling, but didn't follow-through to the upside in Monday's session. The BTK did gap higher Monday morning on an upgrade of Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN), which is the world's biggest biotech company. Even though AMGN finished fractionally higher for the day, the BTK still shed more than 2 percent, which outpaced the NDX's decline. Like Jeff Bailey, I believe that the BTK is important to the broader market averages, specifically the Nasdaq-100. The BTK has lost a significant amount of relative strength versus the NDX since early December, and continued along that trend in Monday's session. Early last fall, the BTK was displaying signs of strength, which lead to a powerful rally off of the September 21 low. The rest of the Nasdaq soon followed. It's too early to draw a similar conclusion about the BTK and whether or not it will lead the Nasdaq lower. But we'll be able to more intelligently reach a conclusion by monitoring support levels in the BTK during this week's trading. The BTK rebounded from the 540 level last week, which is the site of the 38.2 percent retracement level. In addition, the BTK's 200-dma rests at the 540 level. On the chart below, you can see that the BTK rebounded from the 540 three times in the recent past, which reinforces its importance. It's crucial for this level to hold as it relates to the rest of the Nasdaq market because of its inclusion of so many biotech stocks. chart of the Biotech index Earnings Impact Monday's pullback in the averages was partially blamed on jitters over corporate earnings. After all, fourth-quarter earnings season is just around the corner. A number of companies kicked things off after the bell, issuing various updates and warnings. AOL-Time Warner (NYSE:AOL) said that its first-quarter revenue would be flat. The company also said that it was not discounting any economic recovery in its business models for 2002. Despite the warning, which was highly telegraphed, the stock traded higher in the after hours session by about $1. Because of the media reports expecting a warning from the company, the news appeared to be already priced into the stock. Several analysts issued late research notes, stating that much. Chip equipment maker Altera (NASDAQ:ALTR) said that its revenues would come in slightly lighter than expected for its fiscal third-quarter, but a company official said that the bottom of the downturn has been reached. Shares of the SOX component added more than $1 in evening trade. Box maker Gateway (NYSE:GTW) also offered guidance after the bell. The company said that it would achieve profitability during its fourth-quarter, but that revenues would come in lower than previously guided. Unlike the other warnings, Gateway's was not well-received by investors in the after hours session. The stock slid lower by about 25 cents. The earnings calendar is pretty quiet over the next two days, with a small number of financial and housing stocks reporting. The number of earnings reports increase in frequency Thursday. Some of the companies reporting Thursday include Acclaim (NASDAQ:AKLM), Cree (NASDAQ:CREE), Rambus (NASDAQ:RMBS), Rational Software (NASDAQ:RATL), and Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD). This week's economic calendar is light, with the biggest report coming Friday in the producer price index (PPI). The consensus is for a 0.2 percent decline in the PPI and for a 0.1 percent increase in the PPI core. It will be interesting to observe how the XAU trades around the PPI number Friday. It could help to confirm, or deny for that matter, any expectations for future inflation. Eric Utley Premier Investor ================ Market Sentiment ================ Streak ends on profit taking. by Russ Moore After the start we’ve had to this year’s market, it shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise to see investors “lock in” some of those gains. The DOW ended with a loss of -0.6 percent while the NASDAQ dropped -1.1 percent and the NDX -1.5 percent. Volume remained steady with 1.32 billion shares trading on the big board and 2.09 billion moving on the NASDAQ. Losers trumped winners by a 17/15 count on the NYSE and 20/17 on the tech index. Gold was the best performing sector on the day with the XAU adding +1.54 percent. Other winners included oil service, utility and natural gas. On the tech side, networking was the only sector closing in the green. Today’s action featured analyst ratings on both sides of the fence. Downgrades were handed out to Coca-Cola (KO) and General Electric (GE) while upgrades went to Microsoft (MSFT), BEA Systems (BEAS) and Compaq Computer (CCPQ). Nothing in the way of economic reports but we did get some “econo-babble” to help clarify the future. Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley, believes we will lapse back into recession just when recovery is thought to be at hand. He pointed to the "double-dip" of 81’-82’ as an example and thinks we have already seen the first dip. Merrill Lynch’s, Bruce Steinberg, has a completely different viewpoint. He sees GDP growth of 5.0 percent for the second half of 02’ and 4.0 percent growth for 03’, enough to give us reasonable performance on the equity markets. How’s that for clarity? Trim Tabs continues to hold a bearish view of the markets. The funds flow tracker thinks corporate investors are bearish and unless that changes, there won’t be enough cash around to fund the onslaught of new offerings, putting the current rally at risk. Are stock prices getting too far ahead of earnings? That’s the 64-million dollar question. As we stated last week, it’s only a matter of time before buying on faith runs out of steam and investors demand real earnings. Monday 01/07 close: 22.09 VXN Monday 01/09 close: 47.89 30-yr Bonds Monday 01/09 close: 5.49 Total Put/Call Ratio: .70 Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .61 Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.85 === NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ) 52-Week High: 103.51 52-Week Low: 28.19 Current close: 41.21 Volume/Open Interest Maximum calls: 40/129,493 Maximum puts : 40/ 97,235 Moving Averages 10 DMA 40 20 DMA 40 50 DMA 39 200 DMA 40 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 27.00 (09/21/01) 38% 36.60 50% 39.57 62% 42.59 === S&P 100 Index (OEX) 52-Week High: 834.93 52-Week Low: 491.70 Current close: 594.41 Volume/Open Interest Maximum calls: 590/4,819 Maximum puts : 520/4,814 Moving Averages 10 DMA 590 20 DMA 585 50 DMA 581 200 DMA 599 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 480.07 (09/21/01) 38% 556.14 50% 579.65 62% 603.55 === S&P 500 (SPX) 52-Week High: 1530.01 52-Week Low: 965.80 Current close: 1164.89 Volume / Open Interest Maximum calls: 1150/39,410 Maximum puts : 1150/36,948 Moving Averages 10 DMA 1156 20 DMA 1147 50 DMA 1133 200 DMA 1166 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 944.75 (09/21/01) 38% 1086.75 50% 1130.62 62% 1175.23 == DJIA (INDU) 52-Week High: 11,518.83 52-Week Low: 8,235.81 Current close: 10,197.05 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 100/13,851 Maximum Puts 100/29,448 Moving Averages: 10 DMA 10,115 20 DMA 10,021 50 DMA 9,818 200 DMA 10,094 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01) Relative Low 8,062.34 (05/21/01) 38% 9,308.92 50% 9,693.99 62% 10,085.60 == Biotech Index (BTK) 52-Week High: 811.61 52-Week Low: 383.28 Current close: 559.54 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 660/ 354 Maximum Puts: 580/1,150 Moving Averages 10 DMA 579 20 DMA 578 50 DMA 580 200 DMA 539 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00) Relative Low: 383.28 (03/22/01) 38% 546.22 50% 596.57 62% 646.71 == Semiconductor Index (SOX) 52-Week High: 1280.84 52-Week Low: 362.00 Current close: 580.28 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 440/ 847 Maximum Puts: 500/2,401 Moving Averages 10 DMA 545 20 DMA 549 50 DMA 527 200 DMA 555 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01) Relative Low: 343.93 (09/27/01) 38% 484.50 50% 527.18 62% 570.57 == Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) 52-Week High: 455.28 52-Week Low: 339.49 Current close: 375.55 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 400/525 Maximum Puts: 360/835 Moving Averages 10 DMA 382 20 DMA 382 50 DMA 389 200 DMA 390 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00) Relative Low: 339.49 (03/22/01) 38% 382.22 50% 395.69 62% 409.03 ***** CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/04. Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the Chicago Board Of Trade. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in favor of the commercial trader’s direction. S&P 500 Commercials Long Short Net %Change 12/18/01 391,995 456,968 (64,973) 4.3% 12/25/01 412,581 471,239 (58,658) (9.7%) 01/01/02 338,288 407,107 (68,729) 17.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01 Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144) - 5/1/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 12/18/01 158,300 80,507 77,793 8.4% 12/05/01 152,521 79,444 73,077 (6.1%) 01/01/02 127,419 55,576 71,843 (1.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 91,122 - 3/06/01 NASDAQ-100 Commercials Long Short Net %Change 12/18/01 55,276 58,433 (3,157) (46.7%) 12/25/01 55,250 47,476 7,774 01/01/02 29,801 37,497 (7,696) Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01 Most bullish reading of the year: (1,825) - 1/02/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 12/18/01 17,649 18,626 (977) 12/25/01 15,810 25,687 (9,877) 01/01/02 10,649 5,913 4,736 Most bearish reading of the year: (1,028) - 1/02/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/01 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercials Long Short Net %Change 12/18/01 21,919 13,810 8,109 (23.2%) 12/25/01 15,492 7,335 8,157 .6% 01/01/02 15,820 7,553 8,267 1.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,925 - 5/22/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 12/18/01 6,790 10,943 (4,153) (25.8%) 12/25/01 4,293 9,086 (4,793) 15.4% 01/01/02 3,368 8,668 (5,300) 10.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (7,572) - 5/08/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 Small Specs Commercials S&P 500 (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value +71,843 +73,077 -68,729 -58,658 Total Open Interest % (+39.26%) (+31.50%) (-9.22%) (-6.64%) net-long net-long net-short net-short Small Specs Commercials DJIA futures (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value -5,300 -4,793 +8,267 8,157 Total Open interest % (-44.03%) (-35.82%) (+35.37%) (+35.73) net-short net-short net-long net-long Small Spec Commercials NASDAQ 100 (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value +4,736 -9877 -7,696 +7,774 Total Open Interest % (+28.60%) (-23.80%) (-11.44%) (+7.49%) net-short net-short net-short net-long What COT Data Tells Us ---------------------- Indices:.Interesting changes this week as the Commercials increased their net-shorts on the S&P 500 (bearish) while the Small Specs added to their net-long percentage. Increasing divergence is what we’re looking for and we’ll be watching this one closely over the coming weeks. Elsewhere, Commercials did a flip-flop on the NASDAQ 100 with a change to net-short contracts. Once again we see increasing divergence between the Commercials and the Small Specs as the Small Specs went net-long on the tech index. Gold: No significant changes this week. 12/04 2,534 contracts net-short 12/11 13,626 contracts net-long 12/18 15,198 contracts net-short 12/25 11,976 contracts net-short 01/01 14,555 contracts net-short Data compiled as of Tuesday 01/01 by the CFTC. ========================= Play-of-the-Day (Bullish) ========================= Placer Dome - PDG - close: 11.85 change: +0.21 stop: 10.90 Company Description: Placer Dome Inc. is the world's fifth largest gold mining company, producing nearly 3 million ounces of gold and 430 million pounds of copper annually. (Source: company press release) - ORIGINAL WRITE UP: Jan. 4th, 2002 - Why We Like It: This is another play where we are trying to coordinate our strategy with our market outlook in the wrap. Shares of PDG have been slowly building a bullish pattern and the stock recently bounced off its 200-dma a few sessions ago. The close over resistance at $11.50 was encouraging but traders need to keep an eye on the XAU.X gold/silver index as well as the price of gold itself. The MACD has started to tick up again and Thursday's big move was fueled on strong volume. Confirm stock direction before entering any new plays. Watch for overhead resistance at $12.50 and again at $13.00. We'll probably aim for an exit near $13 if the stock moves as planned. We will initiate the play with a stop at $10.90. - Play of the Day comments, Monday, Jan. 7th, 2002 - Traders should keep their eyes on the Gold/Silver index (XAU.X). Monday's close put it above the most recent high in December. The difference isn't very much so we'd like to see confirmation tomorrow. If investors follow through on the move, it may be enough to get PDG above the $12 level. If not, we would look for a potential pull back in shares of PDG to the 11.60-11.50 level. A bounce here may be a potential entry point for a new long play. Picked on January 4th at $11.64 Change since picked: +0.21 Earnings Date 10/24/01 (confirmed) ========== Watch List ========== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. ----------- Cerner Corp - CERN - close: 48.23 change: -0.37 WHAT TO WATCH: Basically a computer networking company, investors have not supported shares of CERN in the recent tech bullishness. Shares topped out near $60 in mid-October and have withered back to its 200-dma near $48 over the last couple of months. Earnings are expected on January 24th, 2002. However, unless they produce some positive press, the bears might maul the stock price before earnings ever come out. A breakdown below the 200-dma (47.50) could be a good trigger point for a short. It is possible the stock could rally from this support level but we wouldn't put any faith in it until it cleared the $53 level. --- NVIDIA corp - NVDA - close: 67.75 change: -1.87 WHAT TO WATCH: The trading maxim is "the trend is your friend" but this bullish trend on NVDA is looking pretty extended. Those willing to trust in the trend could see this two-day pull back to the 15-dma as an entry point. Granted, we would use a pretty tight stop. If you think NVDA needs to do some more serious consolidation, then look for a breakdown under $65. Earnings are expected in February. --- Ryan's Family Steak Houses - RYAN - close: 23.22 change: +1.00 WHAT TO WATCH: We haven't seen any big news but volume for RYAN was off the charts today with almost 2M shares trading. Average volume is only 225K a day. The stock appears to be working on a triple top at $23.50. A breakout could be very powerful, but likewise, failure to do so at a triple top is normally very bearish. MACD just turned bullish but we would still wait for shares to trade above $23.50 before considering a long. Otherwise, a trip back to the $20.50 level is probably in store for RYAN. Interestingly, shares of Outback Steak House (NYSE:OSI) are also doing pretty well. RYAN Earnings are expected near Jan. 30th, 2002. --- A G Edwards Holding - AGE - close: 45.58 change: -0.32 WHAT TO WATCH: The positive comments about the broker/dealer sector on Friday helped lift most of the industry's stock prices. AGE was no exception. Shares gapped up above steep resistance at $45 but fell back a bit heading into the weekend. The profit taking resumed today but we think a bounce near $45 may be a good entry point for a long play. The MACD had slowly been flattening out and now the recent move has pushed it higher. Look for the bounce. --- NCR Corp - NCR - close: 41.66 change: +0.76 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of NCR have been hot for the last five straight sessions. The recent rally began on Dec. 31st with a quick bounce off the late December support of $36.00. From there, shares have been climbing higher with rising volume every day since. We'd love to know what's driving the new interest in the stock. The breakout above resistance at $40 and its 200-dma is very positive. We don't recommend chasing it but a pull back to the $40 level may be a good entry point to consider a long play. --- Allergan Inc - AGN - close: 69.72 change: -0.83 WHAT TO WATCH: Drug stocks haven't been the hottest sector in 2002 and the DRG.X index is about to breakdown below support near 375. In a similar fashion, AGN has been trading lower but shares of this company have actually closed below support at $70. We think shares may have more weakness in store and shorts can be looking for potential entry points. Earnings are expected on January 22nd, 2002. --- IONA Technologies - IONA - close: 26.00 change: +2.20 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of IONA have vaulted higher the last three sessions moving from support near $20 to breakthrough resistance at its 200-dma and price resistance at $25. The MACD has just turned positive and volume has been much stronger the last couple of sessions. The headlines mentioned some sort of new partnership or alliance and investors must approve. Earnings are expected on Jan. 23rd, 2002. The stock looks pretty short-term extended and bulls may want to look for pull backs as potential entry points after finishing their due diligence. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Monday 01-07-2002 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/6256_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: High Risk/High Rewaard Bullish Play Updates: ADCT Closed Bullish Play: INKT Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= High Risk / High Reward (HR) section ================================================================== =================== HR Play Updates =================== ------------------- Bullish Play Update ------------------- ADC Telecommunications - ADCT - cls: 5.68 chg: +0.30 stop: 5.06*new* Shares of ADCT turned in yet another strong day with a +5.5% gain on very strong volume of 17.9M shares. The weakness in the Nasdaq helped bring ADCT back to $5.12 intraday but buyers stepped in and most of the volume showed up in the last couple of hours pushing the share price higher. We are going to adjust our exit price from $5.95 to $5.90, which is just a few cents below its 200-dma. If shares trade there intraday we'll close the play for a profit. We've also adjusted our stop to breakeven at $5.06. Normally, with a play up over 12% we would try and place the stop in a position that would try and ensure a profit of some kind. However, anyone looking at the chart can see the volatility produced today and we don't want to get stopped out too early. More conservative traders may want to consider a stop just under $5.50. Picked on January 3rd at $ 5.06 Change since picked: +0.62 Earnings Date 11/28/01 (confirmed) =================== HR Closed Plays =================== ------------------- Closed Bullish Play ------------------- Inktomi Corp - INKT - close: 7.17 change: -0.13 stop: 6.94 The pull back in the Nasdaq today was enough to let INKT slip to $6.92 and stopping us out a couple of cents above that. If the tech heavy Nasdaq pulls back to 2000 or 1950 then INKT might slip to $6.75 or $6.50. More aggressive traders can look for a bounce but INKT's inability to hold above $7.50-$7.25 makes us skeptical. Don't forget that INKT is expected to announce earnings on Jan. 16th. Also in the news today was a release stating that INKT's CEO will speak at the Morgan Stanley Internet Software and Networking Conference tomorrow morning. If he offers strong enough positive comments, the stock might see a boost. We are closing the play with a +5.9% move. Picked on December 28th at $ 6.55 Gain since picked: +0.39 Earnings Date 01/16/02 (confirmed) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. --------------------------------- Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change BA Boeing Co 41.00 +0.64 CBSS Compass Bancshares Inc 28.81 +0.69 TOM Tommy Hilfiger Corp 15.14 +0.61 COHR Coherent Inc 34.09 +1.49 AMRN Amarin Corp 19.49 +1.10 REHB Rehabilicare Inc 5.45 +0.55 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change BEAS Bea Systems Inc 19.90 +1.05 LGTO Legato Systems 16.35 +1.19 PEGS Pegasus Solutions Inc 17.05 +1.15 MFLO Moldflow Corp 16.75 +1.85 CRDS Crossroads Systems Inc 6.29 +1.33 TRF Templeton Russia Fund 19.95 +1.07 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change BK Bank of New York Co 43.95 +1.34 PNC Pnc Financial Services 60.76 +1.38 FDX Fedex Corp 55.27 +1.19 INFY Infosys Technologies 72.21 +5.55 MGA Magna Intl. Inc 68.46 +1.64 CC Circuit City 29.75 +2.29 CMVT Comverse Technology Inc 26.93 +1.18 ----------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change KO Coca-Cola Co 45.22 -1.21 V Vivendi Ads 52.90 -3.40 FNM Fannie Mae 76.15 -2.30 QCOM Qualcomm Inc 47.20 -3.21 PCS Sprint Corp 21.28 -1.17 VRSN Verisign Inc 34.05 -2.26 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change COST Costco Wholesale Corp 44.12 -0.67 DST Dst Systems Inc 47.45 -2.35 DLTR Dollar Tree Stores Inc 29.74 -0.46 ADVP AdvancePCS 29.75 -1.62 TECH Techne Corp 35.18 -1.19 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright © 2001 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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