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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 01/08/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 01-08-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      NASDAQ holds gain as S&P 500 and Dow slip
Market Sentiment: Mixed signals produce mixed markets.
Play-of-the-Day:  Another Bad News Break

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
        1-8-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10150.55 - 46.50 10211.23 10121.35  1.2 bln   1630/1518
NASDAQ   2055.74 + 18.64  2060.23  2027.34  1.8 bln   1993/1600
S&P 100   592.50 -  1.91   596.24   590.64   Totals   3623/3118
S&P 500  1160.71 -  4.10  1167.60  1157.46
RUS 2000  497.90 +  4.72   497.90   491.21
DJ TRANS 2823.34 +  1.95  2838.43  2800.41
VIX        22.55 +  0.38    23.09    21.87
VXN        47.45 -  0.44    48.87    47.33
TRIN        1.92
Put/Call Ratio       .64
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

NASDAQ holds gain as S&P 500 and Dow slip

The NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) managed to eek out a gain of 18 
points lead by software stocks, while the S&P 500 (SPX.X) and Dow 
Industrials (INDU) slipped lower as Argentina worries weighed on 
financials.

Software stocks got a boost today after Kronos Inc. (NASDAQ:KRON) 
$57.27 (+6% ) said it expected to post fiscal first-quarter 
earnings above analysts' estimates, due in part to increased 
market penetration.  Kronos executives said it expects to report 
earnings of 27-30 cents a share on revenue of $74-$76 million.  
Earnings estimates ranged from 16-25 cents, with an average 
estimate of 19 cents.

Kronos Incorporated Chart - Daily Interval




I know that I've talked about shares of Kronos (KRON) at some 
point (perhaps it was on OptionInvestor.com) and the strong 
technicals that had me thinking this stock looked to be of 
several leaders (including MSFT and PSFT) in the software sector.  
At the time, I had "rolled up" retracement as the stock was 
breaking to new relative highs and we needed some levels to 
monitor for targets.  As you can see, this stock sure has a habit 
of rallying to a retracement level, then pulling back and finding 
support at a past level of retracement.  Look for pullbacks in 
the $50-$54 range should the stock bounce off retracement near 
$60.  First sign of trouble would be a break back below $50.

Microsoft Corporation Chart - Daily Interval




Shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) have been bumping against the 
$70 level the past three sessions.  Last week we noted the GSTI 
Software Index (GSO.X) broke above the 192 level and the index 
traded up 1% today.  If MSFT can break above the $70.02 level a 
rally to the $73.50 level isn't out of the question.  In late 
November, shares of MSFT pulled in and bounced off its 200-day MA 
and recently found support at its 50-day MA.  This is a 
"favorite" among many institutions and a stock that often times 
can spark a technology rally.

Yesterday and today, MSFT founder Bill Gates unveiled the 
company's newest offerings of an operating system (CE.NET) for 
next-generation wireless smart devices and PC-based home 
entertainment systems at the Consumer Electronics show in Las 
Vegas.  Microsoft hopes to take a bite out of Apple's 
(NASDAQ:AAPL) consumer market share where Apple has had a lead 
with traditional Internet video.

Argentina's move to devalue puts pressure on U.S. Banks

Banking stocks with an "international flavor" were under some 
selling pressure today after Argentina said it may end up 
devaluing its peso currency and allow borrowers to repay smaller 
dollar loans with pesos.  Today, analysts felt such a move could 
cost banks like FleetBoston Financial (NYSE:FBF) $34.60 (-2.56%) 
and Dow component Citigroup (NYSE:C) $49.50 (-3.67%) hundreds of 
millions of dollars. 

FleetBoston (FBF) could take a $500-$600 million charge on its 
$1.9 billion consumer loan portfolio if people repay dollar loans 
of under $100,000 in pesos instead of US dollars.  In essence, 
banks would get less money back if U.S. dollar loans were 
converted to pesos.  Plus, a devaluation of would mean struggling 
Argentinean companies will have to find more cash to repay dollar 
debts, in the country's widening fiscal crisis.  FleetBoston is 
one of the biggest players in the region and wants to take the 
charge in the 4th quarter, which could delay the reporting of 
results by one week past its January 16th date in order to sort 
out Argentina's impact on earnings.

Citigroup (C) could also take losses on retail loans in Argentina 
because of the government move to devalue its currency.  
Citigroup (C) has said in the past that its exposure to the 
region is too small to itemize separately and declined comment on 
today's stock price action.

Merrill Lynch analyst, Judah Kraushaar said, "The dramatic events 
in Argentina including the rise of populist president and an 
economic program that could especially burden the local banks 
have forced us to reevaluate our estimates on the two U.S. Banks 
with the most exposure (C and FBF)."  Kraushaar cut his 2002 
earning's estimate on Citigroup by 5 cents to $3.30 a share and 
his 2002 estimates on FleetBoston by 10 cents to $3.15 a share.  
This assumes a 20% loss rate on the banks' retail loans and an 
additional 3%-5% loss on commercial loans.

Both Citigroup and FleetBoston are components of the KBW Bank 
Sector Index (BKX.X) with Citigroup making up a 27% weighting in 
the index and FleetBoston making up a 3.79% weighting.  These two 
stocks not only impacted the BKX.X negatively today, but also had 
other financial stocks finding some selling pressure simply based 
on "sector association."

In recent weeks, it has been widely "publicized" that both 
companies had exposure to Argentina, but today's earnings 
revisions by Merrill Lynch seemed to be a newfound "revelation" 
that the MARKET didn't like.

FleetBoston Financial Chart - Daily Interval




Shares of FleetBoston (NYSE:FBF) look quite bearish and recent 
volume indicates that many are looking for the door until a 
chaotic Argentine government makes some type of decision what it 
is doing with its currency.  Bearish traders looking to short the 
stock may want to wait for a break below the $34.30 level.  This 
one is best left for more aggressive bears.  On December 19th, 
shares of FleetBoston jumped above their 50% retracement of 
$37.87 to a post-terrorist attack high of $38.80.  That was the 
day FBF said it would take a $150 million charge in the 4th 
quarter against earnings to write off some of its Argentine debt.  

I get the distinct impression that the MARKET doesn't know what 
to make of things as it relates to Argentina and who can blame 
it!  Will they devalue or won't they?  If they do, then by how 
much?  Will they stop pegging the Argentine peso to the U.S. 
dollar?  There are a lot of questions that have yet to be 
answered and as long as this uncertainty looms, I'd expect 
volatility.  Bearish traders can look to short FBF, but I'd 
follow with a tight stop just above the $36.50 level and look to 
play the prevailing trend.

Gold hasn't budge... yet.

As Citigroup and FleetBoston fell on worries in Argentina, I was 
keeping a close eye on the February 2002 Gold Futures (gc02g).  
The future rose fractionally today, but are creeping higher at 
$280 as I write.  This may play into Friday nights observations 
that the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) and some gold stocks might be 
this week's upside surprise.  Today, the Gold/Silver Index 
(XAU.X) gave back all of Monday's gains, but now the commodity is 
starting to creep higher.  A move above the $282.10 level in the 
February Gold Futures contract could spark a rally in gold 
stocks.

February Gold Futures Contract - Daily Interval




The February Gold futures contract finished today's trading at 
$279.20, but are creeping higher at $280 for January 9th trading.  
It's very difficult to say what type of impact, if any, today's 
Argentine "revelation" could have on things here.  If nothing 
else, a move above the $282.10 level could create a brief yet 
powerful short-squeeze in the commodity on a move above the 
$282.10 level.

In Friday's wrap I mentioned shares of Placer Dome (NYSE:PDG) 
$11.64 which closed today right at Friday's close of $11.64.  I 
have retracement resistance at $12.01, which correlates rather 
well with the February Gold futures chart and resistance there at 
$282.10.  Any bullish trades in PDG can be followed with a stop 
just below the recent pullback near the 200-day moving average of 
$10.63.

Factory orders fell 3.3% in November

Taking a backseat to today's Argentina news was the 3.3% decline 
in factor orders for November.  The decline was mostly attributed 
to orders for defense related equipment to more normal levels.  
Transportation orders fell 17.3%, largely because defense 
aircraft orders plunged 82.4% in November, after rising a 
staggering 491.6% in October.

Excluding the volatile transportation segment, factor orders fell 
just 0.2% after a 1.8% rise in October.

Inventories of factory goods dropped by 0.9% in November, marking 
10 months in a row of declines.  Shipments of goods fell 0.6% 
after rising 2.3% in October.

One of the best gauges for forecasting trends in business 
investment are orders for non-defense, non-aircraft capital 
goods.  Today's numbers showed a rise of 3.2% after an October 
gain of 5.8%.  Shipments of these so-called core capital goods 
dropped 1.6% in November after rising 2.1% in October.

All in all, today's economic numbers had very little impact on 
the financial markets and perhaps reflect just how mixed the 
numbers are.  A bull or bear could point to any of today's 
numbers and make their case for future market direction.

What I take from it all is that the economy looks to be in a 
recovery mode, but not depicting an economic boom by any means.  
The continued decline in factory orders gives a glimmer of hope 
that businesses may be ready to increase their capital spending 
and boost production to fill orders.  Some analysts feel that 
many producers will not want to risk loss of market share that 
could result from getting caught short on inventories.

Looking ahead

You never know what to expect day to day.  Today's "Argentina 
news" did seem to weigh on the financials and that had an impact 
on the broader market averages.  I do think that the Argentina 
news has been factored into things, but it is an ever-evolving 
story that has yet to reach a final chapter.  That in itself will 
most likely keep some of the multinational banks in check near-
term and may put a damper on things until we get the full story 
on how this debacle plays out.

The software sector looks as if it is best positioned to be the 
catalyst for a bullish move in the NASDAQ, but I feel Microsoft 
(NASDAQ:MSFT) is going to have to make a move above the $70 level 
to make it happen.  I do NOT think the Argentina "crisis" will 
have a high impact on this sector or other technology sectors, 
but only the psychology of the market.

I'm still keeping an eye on shares of General Electric (NYSE:GE) 
that have dipped back below the $40 level (closed at $38.95) and 
violated their rounding higher 50-day moving average to the 
downside at $39.35.  This to me is a negative and has me cautious 
on the broader market, as any further decline will most likely 
put some pressure on the Dow Industrials and perhaps investor 
psychology.  I'm not looking to trade/invest in GE at this time, 
but do feel we need to continue to monitor things here.  
Risk/reward for bulls or bears is 50/50 in this one as support 
looks firm at the $36 level and resistance firm at $42.

Stocks could trade just as they did today ahead of Thursday's 
jobless claims number for the week ending December 29th.  
Economists expect a number near 426,000, which would be lower 
than the previous report of 447,000.

Then on Friday, we'll get a look at some "inflation" numbers with 
the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) where economists 
expect a decline of 0.2% and a core rate for a slight increase of 
0.1%.  In all, economists aren't expecting any type of 
inflationary numbers here.

I don't see any "blockbuster" earnings on the horizon.  Clayton 
Homes (NYSE:CMH) and KB Home (NYSE:KBH) are expected to report 
earnings on Thursday before the opening of trading.  Analysts 
expect CMH to report earnings of 20 cents a share, and KBH to 
report earnings of $1.83.  It would most likely take some type of 
big miss or upside surprise to have a meaningful impact on the 
broader markets.  After the close of trading technology stocks 
Cree Research (CREE), Rambus (RMBS) and Rational Software (RATL) 
will report earnings.  Cree and Rambus both are considered 
"semiconductor" stocks, while Rational is obviously software.  
Results from these three could impact sector action Friday.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Mixed signals produce mixed markets.
by Russ Moore

Investors were given a basket of mixed information to sift 
through resulting in a win for the tech team and a loss for the 
blue chips.

The NASDAQ ended with a +0.9 percent gain while the NDX added 
+1.0 percent. The DOW closed lower for the second day in a row, 
posting a loss of -0.5 percent. The big board saw 1.23 billion 
shares change hands while the NASDAQ moved 1.86 billion. Winners 
inched past losers by a 16/15 count on the NYSE and 20/16 on the 
tech index.

Concern’s over Argentina’s impact on the U.S financials, 
specifically Citigroup (C), and FleetBoston Financial (FBF) took 
its toll on the entire group. Other sectors under pressure 
included oil, oil service, utility and cyclical. Retailers were 
up after Tiffany (TIF) announced its’ fourth quarter earnings 
would come in at the upper end of its’ previously reported range 
and, that it was encouraged by rising consumer confidence. Tech 
action saw chips moving north on the heels of Altera’s (ALTR) 
"modest growth" forecast. BMC software (BMC) provided the 
catalyst for the software sector after Monday’s comment that it 
expects to beat analyst’s expectations for its’ third-quarter 
earnings.

Factory orders were off -3.3 percent for November versus the -2.9 expected.

Earnings announcements will kick in to overdrive next week and 
the actual earnings may not be as bad as some people think. 
Remember that these are earnings based on drastically reduced 
expectations. The real focus will be directed towards 
"visibility". As I said last night, investors have moved past the 
"on faith" earnings, and are ready to hear some real guidance. 
More "fluff" is unlikely to satisfy the average investor’s 
appetite and may spark a significant sell-off.


Tuesday 01/08 close: 22.55


VXN
Tuesday 01/08 close: 47.45


30-yr Bonds
Tuesday 01/08 close: 5.49


Total Put/Call Ratio: .64


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .50


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 2.28


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 41.49

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/128,603
Maximum puts : 40/102,148

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 40
 20 DMA 40
 50 DMA 39
200 DMA 40

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 592.50

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 590/4,781
Maximum puts : 580/5,291
Moving Averages
 10 DMA  590
 20 DMA  585
 50 DMA  581
200 DMA  599

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1160.71

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/40,029
Maximum puts : 1150/40,653
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1157
 20 DMA 1147
 50 DMA 1134
200 DMA 1166

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close: 10,150.55

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/13,796
Maximum Puts   100/29,194

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA 10,126
 20 DMA 10,026
 50 DMA  9,832
200 DMA 10,095

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 559.80

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 660/  354
Maximum Puts:  580/1,150

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 576
 20 DMA 576
 50 DMA 580
200 DMA 540

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 583.82

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 440/ 847
Maximum Puts:  500/2,328

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 551
 20 DMA 550
 50 DMA 529
200 DMA 555

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 374.33

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/525
Maximum Puts:  360/835

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 380
 20 DMA 381
 50 DMA 389
200 DMA 390

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/04. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/18/01     391,995   456,968   (64,973)    4.3%
12/25/01     412,581   471,239   (58,658)   (9.7%)
01/01/02     338,288   407,107   (68,729)   17.1% 

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/18/01       158,300    80,507    77,793     8.4%
12/05/01       152,521    79,444    73,077    (6.1%)
01/01/02       127,419    55,576    71,843    (1.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/18/01      55,276    58,433    (3,157)  (46.7%)
12/25/01      55,250    47,476     7,774   
01/01/02      29,801    37,497    (7,696)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/18/01       17,649    18,626     (977)   
12/25/01       15,810    25,687   (9,877)
01/01/02       10,649     5,913    4,736   

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/18/01      21,919    13,810    8,109    (23.2%)
12/25/01      15,492     7,335    8,157       .6%
01/01/02      15,820     7,553    8,267     1.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/18/01       6,790    10,943    (4,153)    (25.8%)
12/25/01       4,293     9,086    (4,793)     15.4%
01/01/02       3,368     8,668    (5,300)     10.6%
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +71,843     +73,077        -68,729     -58,658

Total Open
Interest %       (+39.26%)  (+31.50%)      (-9.22%)   (-6.64%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -5,300     -4,793          +8,267    8,157
Total Open
interest %       (-44.03%)    (-35.82%)      (+35.37%)  (+35.73)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +4,736      -9877         -7,696    +7,774

Total Open
Interest %        (+28.60%)   (-23.80%)     (-11.44%) (+7.49%)
                 net-short   net-short      net-short  net-long


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Interesting changes this week as the Commercials 
increased their net-shorts on the S&P 500 (bearish) while the 
Small Specs added to their net-long percentage. Increasing 
divergence is what we’re looking for and we’ll be watching this 
one closely over the coming weeks. Elsewhere, Commercials did a 
flip-flop on the NASDAQ 100 with a change to net-short contracts. 
Once again we see increasing divergence between the Commercials 
and the Small Specs as the Small Specs went net-long on the tech 
index.

Gold: No significant changes this week.

12/04  2,534 contracts net-short
12/11 13,626 contracts net-long
12/18 15,198 contracts net-short
12/25 11,976 contracts net-short
01/01 14,555 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 01/01 by the CFTC.



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================

Metro One Telecom. - MTON - cls: 28.40 chg: -1.65 stop: 31.51

Company Description:
Metro One Telecommunications, Inc. is the leading developer and 
provider of Enhanced Directory Assistance and other enhanced 
telecom services. The Company operates a network of call centers 
located strategically throughout the U.S. Metro One handled 
approximately 343 million requests for information during the 
first nine months of 2001 and approximately 302 million requests 
for the entirety of 2000. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The same downgrade that knocked us out of NOK also knocked shares 
of MTON below its support at the $30 level.  The stock was 
already in a steady downtrend and was trying to hold at the $30 
despite trading below its 200-dma.  With Merrill's comments that 
the wireless section will likely see declining sales in 2002, 
investors have taken this negative sentiment and applied it to 
MTON, a company that services all those wireless customers and 
providers.  As a short, we like the breakdown today and volume 
was almost double the average.  It is possible that shares could 
rally back up to $30, but if they roll over under $30 we would 
see it as just a better entry point.  Our initial target will be 
$25 but the stock could drop to $22.50.  Earnings are expected in 
February.  Confirm stock direction before committing any capital.

Picked on January 8th at $28.40
Change since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date          02/07/02 (unconfirmed)







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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 01-08-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Play:      MTON
  Bullish Play Updates:  SFA
  Closed Bullish Play:   NOK

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  APA, BGP, LAB, NCOG, PDG, UVN
  Bearish Play Updates:  ADRX
  Closed Bearish Plays:  SEIC

High Risk / High Reward
  New Bullish Play:      APCC
  Bullish Play Updates:  ADCT

Split Trader
   - none -

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

===============
NB New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bearish Play
  ----------------

Metro One Telecom. - MTON - cls: 28.40 chg: -1.65 stop: 31.51

Company Description:
Metro One Telecommunications, Inc. is the leading developer and 
provider of Enhanced Directory Assistance and other enhanced 
telecom services. The Company operates a network of call centers 
located strategically throughout the U.S. Metro One handled 
approximately 343 million requests for information during the 
first nine months of 2001 and approximately 302 million requests 
for the entirety of 2000. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The same downgrade that knocked us out of NOK also knocked shares 
of MTON below its support at the $30 level.  The stock was 
already in a steady downtrend and was trying to hold at the $30 
despite trading below its 200-dma.  With Merrill's comments that 
the wireless section will likely see declining sales in 2002, 
investors have taken this negative sentiment and applied it to 
MTON, a company that services all those wireless customers and 
providers.  As a short, we like the breakdown today and volume 
was almost double the average.  It is possible that shares could 
rally back up to $30, but if they roll over under $30 we would 
see it as just a better entry point.  Our initial target will be 
$25 but the stock could drop to $22.50.  Earnings are expected in 
February.  Confirm stock direction before committing any capital.

Picked on January 8th at $28.40
Change since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date          02/07/02 (unconfirmed)






===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Scientific Atlanta - SFA - cls: 26.88 chg: +0.06 stop: 24.73

Fortunately for the bulls, shares of SFA have been able to hold 
onto Friday's gains with the possibility that $26.50 might hold 
as new support.  However, today's activity makes us believe 
shares might still dip to $26 before trading higher.  The good 
news for investors was the upgrade from "hold" to a "buy" by ABN 
AMRO.  The broker believes SFA's sales should improve and gave 
the stock a $35 price target.  We're enthusiastic that SFA has 
weathered the recent pull back in the market but still expect a 
dip soon.  Confirm stock direction or look for the bounce before 
considering new plays.  Our exit price at $29.00 still stands.

Picked on December 28th at $24.73
Change since picked:        +2.15
Earnings Date            01/17/02 (confirmed)





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Nokia Corp - NOK - close: 23.87 change: -1.43 stop: 24.39

A downgrade from Merrill Lynch on the wireless sector was NOK's 
undoing.  Merrill's analyst believes that the mobile 
infrastructure market will be down five percent in 2002.  While 
they felt that ERICY would be most vulnerable they did reiterate 
their "neutral" stance on Nokia.  Shares of the stock gapped down 
this morning and traded towards the $23.50 level (not the $20.40 
seen on many quote services).  We would have been stopped out at 
$24.39.  

Picked on January 3rd at $26.90
Gain since picked:        -2.51
Earnings Date          10/19/01 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Apache Corp - APA - close: 49.05 change: -0.69 stop: 45.99

Our Apache trade was off to a good start on Monday with shares 
rallying higher to the $50 level.  The stock appeared to see some 
profit taking today as the price of oil has drifted lower this 
week.  On a positive note, APA said they made another significant 
discovery in Egypt again and this may have mitigated some of the 
selling pressure APA felt.  A dip to $48 looks buyable or if you 
prefer a breakout over $50.  Confirm stock and market direction 
before considering new investments.

Picked on January 4th at $48.54 
Change since picked:      +0.51
Earnings Date          10/25/01 (confirmed)




---

Borders Group Inc - BGP - cls: 21.10 chg: +0.36 stop: 19.99*new*

News has been quiet for the Borders Group.  This has not deterred 
investors and a positive Tuesday in the retail sector helped push 
the fourth positive close in a row for shares of BGP.  Short-term 
traders willing to take a 3% to 4% gain should adjust their stops 
to protect one.  The close above $21 is positive for BGP and puts 
the move at 5% from our picked price.  Those who bought the dip 
on Jan. 2nd could have a bigger gain.  At this point we would 
expect another dip.  A bounce might occur near the $20.50 area.  
We are going to plan on exiting at the $22.00 mark.  More 
conservative traders may want to aim for $21.80 to beat the 
crowd.  Keep an eye on the RLX.X.  If the sector can power higher 
then it may be able to postpone any profit taking in BGP for 
another day or two.  We have adjusted our stop to $19.99, which 
should reduce our risk to six cents.

Picked on December 27th at $20.05 
Change since picked:        +1.05
Earnings Date            03/14/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Labranche & Co Inc - LAB - close: 35.21 change: -0.65 stop: 33.74

As we expected, the big move in the broker/dealer sector (XBD.X) 
last week has met with profit taking this week.  The index has 
slipped two days in a row which in turn has led shares of LAB 
down towards the $35.00 level we saw as a potential entry.  
Continue to watch the XBD.  Another 10-point loss would bring it 
back to what should be support.  If the sector does slip again, 
LAB might fall to $34 but we would prefer to see the stock 
consolidate near $35 (a sign of relative strength).  The company 
released news that they would release earnings on January 18th, 
2002, which is a week and a half away.  Now would be a good time 
for any sort of earnings run to start.  Readers should confirm 
the direction of the index and the stock before considering new 
long positions.

Picked on January 4th at $36.11 
Change since picked:      -0.90
Earnings Date          01/18/02 (confirmed)




---

NCO Group, Inc. - NCOG - close: 24.74 change: -1.02 stop: 22.87

We did mention a pull back between $24.50 and $24.00 in our 
weekend write up which is exactly what we got on Tuesday.  
Monday's positive move put the stock just below potential 
resistance at $26.  The weakness in the financial sector on 
Tuesday led traders to take profits in NCOG before buyers stepped 
in to lift shares off their intraday lows.  This looks like a 
good entry point for new long positions once you confirm the 
stock is moving your direction.  Very conservative traders could 
try and put their stop just under $24 but we are going to leave 
ours under $23.  

Picked on January 3rd at $24.17 
Change since picked:      +0.57
Earnings Date          11/06/01 (confirmed)




---

Placer Dome - PDG - close: 11.64 change: -0.21 stop: 10.90

We're right back where we started with PDG.  The stock traded 
higher on Monday but seemed to struggle at the 11.90 level.  
Tuesday produce some selling in the XAU.X Gold/Silver index and 
PDG slipped to 11.53 intraday before bouncing near the close.  In 
our play-of-the-day update last night we mentioned that PDG might 
pull back to the 11.60 to 11.50 level and interested bulls might 
use that as an entry point.  The stock needs to confirm its 
upward trend now that we've got a pull back from the original 
breakout over the 11.50 level.  

Picked on January 4th at $11.64 
Change since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date          10/24/01 (confirmed)




---

Univision - UVN - close: 40.09 change: -0.70 stop: 38.99 

Shares of UVN have followed the Dow's lead with two negative 
trading sessions to start the week.  The stock has pulled back to 
the $40 support level it bounced off of late last week.  It is a 
potential entry point for new long plays but we would be cautious 
here and really look for some sort of bounce higher.  A move 
under $40 would be disappointing and probably make me wait before 
committing any capital.  More conservative traders might be able 
to shave another 50 cents off the stop price but we're going to 
leave ours at $38.99.

Picked on December 28th at $40.89 
Change since picked:        -0.80
Earnings Date            11/06/01 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Andrx Group - ADRX - close: 64.18 change: -1.35 stop: 67.02*new*

What do you want to hear first?  The bad news or the bad news.  
As we suspected on Friday, something appeared sour over at ADRX 
and the company confessed on Tuesday that this quarterly earnings 
report would be "significantly lower" than analysts estimates.  
It was quite a confession.  ADRX has said that sales of their 
asthma inhaler, albuterol, have dropped substantially to $7M in 
the 4Q from $21M in the 3Q.  Tough competition from Schering-
Plough (NYSE:SGP) has been eroding sales.  ADRX also confessed 
that litigation with AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) over a generic 
version of anti-ulcer medicine Prilosec has been slow and costly.  
Third, ADRX announced that their estimated launch of a generic 
version of Glucophage, a diabetes treatment created by Bristol-
Meyers Squibb, has been delayed by the drug's creator through 
legal action and FDA arguments.  We were surprised to see that 
only one broker, Gruntal & Co, released a downgrade on the news.  
What surprises us more was the strong rebound in the stock price 
today.  Shares gapped down to 61.76 and then rallied all the way 
back above the $64 level.  We suspect that tomorrow may be the 
day of truth for ADRX.  The stock remains under price support of 
$65 and its 200-dma (64.67).  Investors will either choose to buy 
the stock believing that there is no more bad news left, or they 
will sell the stock and our short play will finally kick into 
high gear.  Bears will want to confirm the stock direction first 
but we expect more weakness.  We are going to lower our stop to 
$67.02, or just above Monday's high.  

Picked on January 4th at $64.14 
Change since picked:      -0.04
Earnings Date          10/25/01 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

SEI Investments - SEIC - cls: 42.24 chg: -1.96 stop: 42.99 

Two big down days with strong volume doesn't paint a very positive 
picture for SEIC.  Shares rallied on Friday with the rest of the 
broker/dealer sector, which the stock tends to follow, but the two 
big down days this week have out performed the XBD.X to the 
downside.  At this point in the game we would suspect that SEIC 
may need to retest support at $40 again.  We were unable to 
uncover any news or comments that may have affected the stock 
negatively, which makes the breakdown even more ominous.  We are 
closing the play with a 42-cent loss.

Picked on December 15th at $43.41
Change since picked:        -0.42
Earnings Date               10/16 (unconfirmed)







==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bullish Play
  ----------------

American Power Conversion Corp - APCC - cls: 16.02 chg: +0.37 
stop: 15.19

Company Description:
Founded in 1981, American Power Conversion is a leading provider 
of global, end-to-end availability enhancement solutions which 
include surge suppressors, uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), 
DC-based power systems, precision cooling equipment, cabling and 
connectivity solutions, power conditioning equipment, related 
software, professional and consulting services for Nonstop 
Networking(TM), as well as power purchasing solutions through 
energyOn.com, The World's Online Energy Store(SM). APC's 
comprehensive products, services and accessory offering, which is 
designed for both home and corporate environments, improves the 
availability, manageability and performance of sensitive 
electronic, network, communication and industrial equipment of 
all sizes. APC, which is headquartered in West Kingston, Rhode 
Island, reported sales of $1.48 billion for the year ended 
December 31, 2000. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
There appears to be a surge in electronic equipment stocks and 
one of them is APCC.  Shares have bounced strongly from their 
base of support near $14 and the close over $16 was a technical 
victory for the bulls.  With earnings only three weeks away, the 
current rally may be able to keep the momentum rolling.  We would 
look for a pull back to the $15.75 to $15.50 level or a 
confirmation of the breakout over $16.00 as a potential entry 
point.  We are placing this in the high-risk section for a couple 
of reasons.  First, the stock has been up a few sessions in a row 
and could be due for a pull back.  Second, the stock looks like 
it has been trading in an ascending channel and currently shares 
are near the top of that channel.  If this is true, then the 
stock should pull back to the $14.50 level or bottom of the 
channel.  Some of us believe the rising volume and rising MACD 
may be a good indication that shares can keep the rally moving.  
Traders will want to confirm stock direction before committing 
any capital.  We will start the play with a stop at $15.19 or a 
few cents below Friday's low.  Our initial target is $18 but 
expect resistance at $17.

Picked on January 8th at $16.02
Change since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date          01/31/02 (unconfirmed)






===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

ADC Telecommunications - ADCT - cls: 5.50 chg: -0.18 stop: 5.06

Nothing new to report for ADCT from our Monday update.  The stock 
pulled back to $5.35 intraday before bouncing near the close.  
The newsletter's exit price is $5.90 and we'll close the play if 
the stock trades there intraday.  

Picked on January 3rd at $ 5.06
Change since picked:      +0.44
Earnings Date          11/28/01 (confirmed)






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

GMT     Gatx Corp                  34.47     +0.87
NVR     Nvr Inc                   199.00     +3.25
TOM     Tommy Hilfiger Corp        16.00     +0.86
BOBE    Bob Evans Farms Inc        25.94     +0.91
FTO     Frontier Oil Corp          17.75     +0.85
HOC     Holly Corp                 20.00     +0.72

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DDS     Dillard's Inc              17.74     +1.20
RNWK    Realnetworks Inc            7.11     +1.06
PLUG    Plug Power Inc             12.04     +3.38
HELE    Helen Of Troy Ltd          15.00     +2.70
MDTH    Medcath Corp               17.05     +1.26
HYGS    Hydrogenics Corp            9.50     +1.51

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AFL     Aflac Inc                  25.54     +2.42
INFY    Infosys Technologies       75.26     +3.05
RJR     RJ Reynolds Tobbaco        58.50     +1.04
TIF     Tiffany & Co               34.84     +1.95
NCR     Ncr Corp                   43.45     +1.79
JWN     Nordstrom Inc              22.37     +1.56
BLDP    Ballard Power Systems Inc  34.96     +4.55

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

C       Citigroup                   49.50     -1.89
NOK     Nokia Corp                  23.87     -1.43
HMC     Honda Motor Co              79.50     -1.05
CAT     Caterpillar Inc             51.35     -1.80
AT      Alltel Corp                 59.10     -1.90
GP      Georgia Pacific Corp        25.66     -2.05

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

COF     Capital One Financial Corp 54.41     -0.89
ORI     Old Republic Intl          27.15     -0.75
NST     Nstar                      44.40     -0.73
GRMN    Garmin Ltd                 20.25     -0.68






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