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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 01/10/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Thursday 01-10-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Mixed session ahead of tomorrow's PPI data
Market Sentiment: Investors play the waiting game
Play-of-the-Day:  none today, see notes below

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       1-10-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10067.86 - 26.23 10101.77 10032.23  1.2 bln   1559/1589
NASDAQ   2047.24 +  2.35  2055.89  2026.05  1.7 bln   1834/1826
S&P 100   590.56 +   .94   592.58   587.01   Totals   3393/3415
S&P 500  1156.55 +  1.41  1159.93  1150.85
RUS 2000  495.31 +  0.57   495.51   493.45
DJ TRANS 2764.78 - 10.37  2782.70  2750.71
VIX        23.13 -  0.22    24.42    22.98
VXN        48.66 +  0.31    50.17    48.29
TRIN        1.30
Put/Call Ratio       .58
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Mixed session ahead of tomorrow's PPI data

Today's divergence in gold and bonds didn't have the impact I 
thought it might.  In the end, the broader market averages ended 
mixed as the Dow Industrials fell 26 points, while the S&P 500 
and NASDAQ composite edged fractionally higher.  

Tomorrow's economic data will be interesting.  At 08:30 AM EST, 
market participants will get a reading on inflation, or lack 
thereof, from the Producer Price Index (PPI) number.  Economists 
are looking for a decline of 0.2% with a core rate that factors 
out food and energy showing a slight up-tick of 0.1%.  In 
essence, very little sign of inflation.

So what gives with the recent move higher in gold futures?  
What's that all about?  As we discussed last night, a higher 
price in gold could be a signal from the market that there might 
be some worry on the inflation front.

But wait!  If that's the case, then today's round of buying in 
the bond market doesn't make much sense.  If inflation is running 
low, then the Fed may be more apt to cut interest rates further 
if it feels the economy needs further stimulus.

Has the recent move in the gold futures market simply been a 
"short-squeeze" as eluded to in Tuesday's market wrap?  We may 
get some further news on the topic of inflation in tomorrow 
morning's PPI data.

Gold stocks were mixed today as the Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 
gained 0.84% to close at $58.56.  An active trader in our bullish 
play in Placer Dome (NYSE:PDG) $11.82 (-2.07%) will want to keep 
a close eye on things tomorrow morning.

Placer Dome Chart - Daily Interval




Tomorrow will most likely be a key day for traders in our Placer 
Dome (NYSE:PDG) trade.  The only thing any of us know for sure is 
that the PPI data is due out tomorrow morning.  While the 
technicals are bullish for PDG and I think traders are positioned 
right, I do think its going to take a higher than expected PPI 
number to get this stock above that $12.21 level and to our 
target near $13.  We put this stock in the "active trader" 
portion of the play list for a reason.  We're not looking to be 
investors in gold right now.  I'd look to sell any move near the 
$13 level for a nice gain.  If the PPI comes in as expected and 
gold stocks open lower, a short-term trader should be open to 
exiting the trade if they've got a profit, break-even or small 
loss.  Retracement support should come in near the $11 level.

Expanding "borders?"

Book retailer Borders Group (NYSE:BGP) issued an UPSIDE earnings 
warning after today's close of trading.  The company said it sees 
Q4 earnings in the range of $1.31-$1.34 per share versus current 
consensus estimates of $1.25.  The stock was trading as high as 
$21.86 in after-hours trading.

Borders Group Chart - Daily Interval




If tonight's after-hours trading at $21.86 is an indication of 
how shares of Borders Group (BG) open for trading, then active 
traders are going to have a nice gain going for them at the open 
of trading.  At the least, I'd raise my stop just under 
retracement of $21.64, but look to sell strength near $22.50 (for 
active traders).  Earnings estimates for next quarter (ending in 
April) are for profits of 1 penny and may dampen enthusiasm.

Can healthcare stocks make a move higher?

The last couple of sessions I've started to see some bullish 
things taking place in some healthcare stocks.  I'd argue that 
his group might not be as economically sensitive than some other 
sectors and some bullish news out of Oxford Health (NYSE:OHP) 
yesterday when the company said enrollment in its commercial 
health plans should be up 2% this year.

Oxford Health Plans Chart - Daily Interval




I've seen charts like this before when a stock "breaks out" of a 
longer-term base on BIG volume.  Often times it is a "sudden 
realization" that longer-term bullishness is still to come.  On 
April 18th, Oxford Health switch to the NYSE from the NASDAQ.  
Not sure if this stock will cooperate, but I'd like to see a 
pullback near the $32-$33 level for a bullish trade.  If you're a 
longer-term investor, I like this stock as a bullish play.  The 
current vertical count from the point and figure chart is 
building and currently has a vertical count of $65.

Oxford Health Plans Chart - historical back to April 2000 gap




Like I said.  I've seen quite a few stocks do well that have 
gapped above a longer-term base on BIG volume and the outcome is 
often times quite bullish.  

What I think happens is that the "good news" near the end of a 
base is a major turning point for a stock and sudden realization 
by the MARKET of what lies ahead.  Bears that are short the stock 
and haven't been making any headway quickly run for the door and 
cover their positions.  At the same time, you get some 
institutional bulls in the stock.  That's what creates the gap 
higher and BIG volume spike.  Then as time passes, institutions 
continue to accumulate and begin building a longer-term position.

Oxford Health Chart - Historical look at year 2000




Not only did Oxford Health gap higher on BIG volume in April of 
2000, but the point and figure chart gave a sextuple top buy 
signal.  That's what I call "breaking out of a base!"

I think one way to play the current move in shares of Oxford 
Health (NYSE:OHP) is to look at a longer-term call option.  I'm 
not sure if the stock will pull back or not, it may keep running.  
An investor can help limit their risk of a near-term downside 
move and look at the August $35 calls (OHPHG) (1 contract gives 
the investor control of 100 shares of stock until August).  At 
the close of trading today, the OHPGH cost $4.30 or $430.  An 
investor that were to buy 100 shares of stock will tie up $3,536 
and a near-term pullback to $32 might make an investor nervous 
and perhaps taking "too much heat."  The call option allows the 
investor exposure to 100 shares until August and the most an 
investor would lose is $430 (plus commission on 1 contract).  

In the year 2000, it took shares of Oxford Health seven months 
from April (April, red 4 to October red A) to achieve its bullish 
vertical count.

Another healthcare stock that looks bullish are shares of 
UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:UNH).  This stock's point and 
figure chart currently has a bullish vertical count of $91.  
First sign of trouble would be a trade at $67.  Bullish support 
is at $66.  Shares of UNH also gave a spread triple top buy 
signal at $70 on November 20th.  Today, shares of UNH looked to 
have started a move higher after trading right into a still 
trending higher 50-day moving average.  I like UNH as a bullish 
trade, stop $67 and longer-term target of $89.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Investors play the waiting game.
by Russ Moore

Better than expected retail sales numbers and improving jobless 
claims data wasn’t enough to overcome investor anxiety.

Rumors that IBM may fall short on sales/earnings targets 
triggered some downside pressure on blue-chip index, leaving the 
DOW with a loss of -0.3 percent. The NASDAQ managed a +0.1 
percent gain while the NDX added +0.2 percent with Microsoft and 
Cisco saving the day.

Volume was moderate with 1.28 billion shares trading on the NYSE 
and 1.75 billion the NASDAQ. Market breadth was virtually flat. 

Apparently, consumers turned it on in the home stretch giving 
retailers a much needed Christmas boost and better than expected 
numbers. The RLX (S&P retail index) was up +0.85 percent on the 
news. Other winners included bank, utility, drug, biotech and 
gold. Cyclical, oil service, natural gas, airline and brokerage 
sectors were all down. Tech action saw the Internet sector with 
the only green arrow.

Jobless claims fell 56,000 to 395,000, much better than expected. 
The seemingly positive data was viewed some skepticism however. 
Seasonal adjustments may produce false signals on the overall 
trend. In addition, the labor department said that some 
California residents might have elected to wait until January 6, 
when a benefit increase comes into affect.

Mr. Greenspan’s upcoming speech was another factor in today’s 
cautious trading. Investors will be listening closely to the Fed 
chief’s words and their possible impact on market direction. Will 
the Fed be moving to a neutral position at the next FOMC meeting, 
or will the easing policy remain intact? Rest assured, the CNBC 
crew will be analyzing every tidbit, to death.

Over extended stock prices, earnings announcements and a healthy 
rumor mill are likely to keep bullish sentiment in check for now. 



Thursday 01/10 close: 23.13


VXN
Thursday 01/10 close: 48.66


30-yr Bonds
Thursday 01/10 close: 5.41


Total Put/Call Ratio: .58


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .50


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.42


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 41.38

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/125,302
Maximum puts : 40/103,838

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 40
 20 DMA 40
 50 DMA 39
200 DMA 40

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 590.56

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 590/5,155
Maximum puts : 550/5,235

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  591
 20 DMA  586
 50 DMA  583
200 DMA  599

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1156.55

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/40,218
Maximum puts : 1150/36,713
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1159
 20 DMA 1149
 50 DMA 1137
200 DMA 1166

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close: 10,067.86

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/13,808
Maximum Puts   100/30,465

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA 10,130
 20 DMA 10,044
 50 DMA  9,859
200 DMA 10,099

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 561.82

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 660/  354
Maximum Puts:  580/1,150

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 571
 20 DMA 574
 50 DMA 580
200 DMA 541

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 574.57

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 440/ 847
Maximum Puts:  470/2,084

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 564
 20 DMA 551
 50 DMA 533
200 DMA 555

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 380.00

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/ 525
Maximum Puts:  360/1035

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 379
 20 DMA 380
 50 DMA 388
200 DMA 390

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/04. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/18/01     391,995   456,968   (64,973)    4.3%
12/25/01     412,581   471,239   (58,658)   (9.7%)
01/01/02     338,288   407,107   (68,729)   17.1% 

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/18/01       158,300    80,507    77,793     8.4%
12/05/01       152,521    79,444    73,077    (6.1%)
01/01/02       127,419    55,576    71,843    (1.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/18/01      55,276    58,433    (3,157)  (46.7%)
12/25/01      55,250    47,476     7,774   
01/01/02      29,801    37,497    (7,696)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/18/01       17,649    18,626     (977)   
12/25/01       15,810    25,687   (9,877)
01/01/02       10,649     5,913    4,736   

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/18/01      21,919    13,810    8,109    (23.2%)
12/25/01      15,492     7,335    8,157       .6%
01/01/02      15,820     7,553    8,267     1.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/18/01       6,790    10,943    (4,153)    (25.8%)
12/25/01       4,293     9,086    (4,793)     15.4%
01/01/02       3,368     8,668    (5,300)     10.6%
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +71,843     +73,077        -68,729     -58,658

Total Open
Interest %       (+39.26%)  (+31.50%)      (-9.22%)   (-6.64%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -5,300     -4,793          +8,267    8,157
Total Open
interest %       (-44.03%)    (-35.82%)      (+35.37%)  (+35.73)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +4,736      -9877         -7,696    +7,774

Total Open
Interest %        (+28.60%)   (-23.80%)     (-11.44%) (+7.49%)
                 net-short   net-short      net-short  net-long


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Interesting changes this week as the Commercials 
increased their net-shorts on the S&P 500 (bearish) while the 
Small Specs added to their net-long percentage. Increasing 
divergence is what we’re looking for and we’ll be watching this 
one closely over the coming weeks. Elsewhere, Commercials did a 
flip-flop on the NASDAQ 100 with a change to net-short contracts. 
Once again we see increasing divergence between the Commercials 
and the Small Specs as the Small Specs went net-long on the tech 
index.

Gold: No significant changes this week.

12/04  2,534 contracts net-short
12/11 13,626 contracts net-long
12/18 15,198 contracts net-short
12/25 11,976 contracts net-short
01/01 14,555 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 01/01 by the CFTC.



=========================
Play-of-the-Day ()
=========================


No Play of the Day tonight as we wait for the PPI numbers
and the market's reaction.  



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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Thursday 01-10-2002
                                                     section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/1583_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  SFA
  Bearish Play Updates:  MTON

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  APA, BGP, LAB, NCOG, PDG, UVN
  Bearish Play Updates:  ADRX, SPY, VGR

High Risk / High Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  ADCT, APCC

Split Trader
  - none -

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) / Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Scientific Atlanta - SFA - cls: 26.75 chg: +0.04 stop: 24.73

The broader market weakness that appeared late in yesterday's 
session and again this morning weighed heavily on shares of SFA.  
The stock sold off late afternoon Wednesday and gapped down to 
$26.01 today before staging a session long comeback from the 
lows.  Our Tuesday update mentioned a dip to $26 and this was as 
close as you could get.  Bullish traders should confirm stock 
direction before committing new capital and we would be very 
cautious if the broader market is weak.  No change to our stop 
but more conservative traders could use today's low as a 
guideline if they want to adjust theirs higher.  Our exit price 
of $29.00 still stands.  Don't forget that SFA should announce 
earnings next Thursday, Jan. 17th.

Picked on December 28th at $24.73
Change since picked:        +2.02
Earnings Date            01/17/02 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Metro One Telecom. - MTON - cls: 29.50 chg: +2.75 stop: 30.21

Ouch!  A no news reversal of ten percent was a bit puzzling 
today.  MTON isn't a pure wireless play but we still glanced at 
the news for other big players and didn't see anything exciting 
that may have fueled the move in MTON.  This leaves us with a 
potential oversold bounce, which the stock could have been 
overdue for.  However, what doesn't sit well with us was the 
session long rally in the shares with the stock closing near its 
high for the day.  In the Wednesday newsletter we mentioned how 
MTON's position on its point-and-figure chart gave us pause for 
concern.  It makes one wonder if shorts were waiting for the 
stock to touch its support level before covering.  Tomorrow is a 
key day for MTON's short-term direction.  If this one-day 
reversal confirms with a close back over $30 then bears might 
want to look elsewhere.  We've already tightened our stop to 
$30.21 and will have to see how the cards are dealt.  

Picked on January 8th at $28.40
Change since picked:      -1.10
Earnings Date          02/07/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) Non-tech stock section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Apache Corp - APA - close: 48.13 change: -0.63 stop: 46.99 *new*

The oil indices have continued to pull back the last couple of 
days but action in the price of oil futures lead us to believe 
the group may be ready for the turnaround we've been looking for.  
Shares of APA drifted to a low of $47.75 before buyers started 
nibbling at the stock price.  The March crude futures look like 
they have bottomed near the lower end of its recent trading 
channel.  The combination of APA's and the future's trading 
action has encouraged us to raise our stop.  If APA doesn't trade 
higher from here then we probably don't want to be in it.  Our 
new stop is $46.99.  New positions could be sought if the stock 
confirms the up trend is still intact.

Picked on January 4th at $48.54 
Change since picked:      -0.41
Earnings Date          10/25/01 (confirmed)




---

Borders Group Inc - BGP - cls: 20.35 chg: -0.50 stop: 19.99

We were starting to worry about BGP.  Positive comments from 
several retailers lifted several stocks in the group on Thursday.  
BGP managed to gap higher at the open but instead of following 
through on the move the stock produced a steady sell-off all day 
long.  Shares closed at their low for the day near its 10-dma.  
It was enough to make us consider just calling it quits and 
looking elsewhere.  Fortunately, after the bell, Borders came out 
with an earnings warning -- a positive upside earnings warning.  
Sales were so strong that management has raised their estimates 
for next year.  In a press release, BGP said that sales for the 
last two months of 2001 rose 13.2 percent over the previous year.  
They also reported that Thanksgiving through Jan. 6th, their same 
store sales grew 5.1% and their Waldenbooks line of stores grew 
same store numbers 3.7%.  Their international stores had an very 
strong quarter with total sales up 28.5% over last year.  They 
also announced that they would report earnings on January 31st, 
2002 with a conference call on February 1st.  This announcement 
had shares of BGP trading above $21.80 in after hours.  We are 
going to set an exit point in hopes of closing the play on any 
excitement tomorrow.  Our exit point will be $22.50 and if shares 
of BGP trade there intraday we'll close the play for a gain.  The 
only pit in this cherry pie is the possibility of a pitiful PPI 
report.  A bad PPI could send an already wavering market much 
lower and BGP would likely follow the crowd despite their good 
news.  We're not going to change our stop at this time but Bailey 
has some alternative strategies for stop placement on this play 
in his wrap tonight.  We encourage you to check it out.

Picked on December 27th at $20.05 
Change since picked:        +0.30
Earnings Date            01/31/02 (confirmed)




---

Labranche & Co Inc - LAB - close: 35.36 change: -0.49 stop: 33.74

The good news for LAB bulls is that shares have been able to hold 
above the support level at $35 while the Dow Jones has pulled 
back most of the week.  The bad news for LAB bulls is that shares 
have been stuck under resistance near $36.35 all week.  
Conservative investors may want to tighten their stops.  Don't 
forget that earnings are expected next Friday, January 18th, 2002 
and we'll probably close the play before they announce.

Picked on January 4th at $36.11 
Change since picked:      -0.75
Earnings Date          01/18/02 (confirmed)




---

NCO Group, Inc. - NCOG - close: 25.05 change: +0.23 stop: 22.87

There has been little change in shares of NCOG since Tuesday.  
We're encouraged that the stock has managed to hold above support 
at $24 but there appears to be some selling pressure just north 
of $25.  All the stock may need is a positive market environment 
to get through this resistance as volume has been retreating.  
Odds are investors are waiting for the PPI report and Greenspan's 
comments on Friday before placing any more bets.  We're going to 
try and reduce our exposure by raising our stop to $23.74.  The 
challenge with this move is that any strong volatility by 
indecision over the PPI report tomorrow could stop us out.  
Hopefully, the 10-dma at $24.22 will be strong enough to resist 
the bears.

Picked on January 3rd at $24.17 
Change since picked:      +0.88
Earnings Date          11/06/01 (confirmed)




---

Placer Dome - PDG - close: 11.82 change: -0.25 stop: 11.64 *new*

We felt encouraged on Wednesday when shares of PDG traded higher 
and closed above potential price resistance of $12.  The move was 
fueled by a strong day in the XAU.X the same day.  What is 
puzzling was Thursday's action.  The XAU continued higher; as did 
the price of gold per ounce but PDG fell back two percent to 
bounce at $11.75.  We suspect that bears are trying to short the 
move ahead of the PPI.  The key will be the PPI report.  If the 
number comes in strong, then Wall Street might worry about 
inflation and that should pull the price of gold higher.  If the 
number is weaker than expected then inflation concerns should not 
be an issue and gold should subside.  We're going to move our 
stop to breakeven at $11.64.  This way we can let it run either 
direction with almost zero risk.  For more comments about the 
gold index and our PDG play, check out tonight's wrap.

Picked on January 4th at $11.64 
Change since picked:      +0.18
Earnings Date          10/24/01 (confirmed)




---

Univision - UVN - close: 39.93 change: -0.87 stop: 38.99 

We are turning cautious on this UVN long play.  This morning 
released an interview with the CEO of Telemundo, UVN's biggest 
rival.  The summary of the article was that 2002 should be "the 
best year in (U.S.) Latin television history", which is a quote 
from Jim McNamara in the interview with Reuters.  If things are 
going to be so great, then why can't the bulls keep UVN above the 
$40 support level.  Shares of UVN have been able to hold this 
support for the last several sessions and today's close under it 
is an ominous sign for Friday.  We would not suggest any new 
positions and traders may want to snug up their stops.

Picked on December 28th at $40.89 
Change since picked:        -0.96
Earnings Date            11/06/01 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Andrx Group - ADRX - close: 64.16 change: +0.90 stop: 66.02 *new*

Is it just me or has there been a real lack of follow through on 
the breakdown for shares of ADRX.  On Tuesday we reported about 
their big confession over earnings, litigation and delayed drug 
launches but the stock continues to hang on.  The $65 level, 
bolstered by the 200-dma, has become new resistance for the share 
price but we're disappointed in the current response from 
investors.  Traders should turn cautious on this short.  Volume 
has dried up but that can be attributed to the big PPI report 
tomorrow as investors take a wait and see approach.  We are going 
to lower our stop to $66.02 in an effort to reduce our exposure.  
More conservative investors can look to the $65 level as a 
guideline.  

Picked on January 4th at $64.14 
Change since picked:      -0.02
Earnings Date          10/25/01 (confirmed)




---

SPDRS on the S&P 500 - SPY - cls: 116.08 chg: +0.51 stop: 118.25

Thursday brought us a partial success from our outline on 
Wednesday.  We were expecting the big investors to buy bonds 
today and sure enough they did.  Unfortunately, the SPY forgot to 
follow through.  We think this may just be a one-day anomaly 
ahead of the big economic data coming out tomorrow.  Everything 
hinges on Wall Street's reaction to the PPI numbers and any clues 
from Greenspan's speech on Friday.  

Picked on January 9th at $115.57
Change since picked:       -0.51
Earnings Date                n/a 




---

Vector Group - VGR - close: 27.80 change: -1.00 stop: 30.51 *new*

So far so good.  VGR produced another high volume down day losing 
3.4% in Thursday's session.  The stock found some support near 
$27 before bouncing higher in the last 30 minutes of the trading 
day.  We're going to lower our stop a dollar to $30.51.  In the 
mean time we're also going to enter an exit price of $25.00.  If 
shares of VGR trade there intraday we'll close the play for a 
gain.  Those investors who think VGR will eventually trade $19, 
its bearish price objective, may want to make other adjustments.  

Picked on January 9th at $28.80
Change since picked:      +1.00
Earnings Date          11/14/01 (confirmed)






==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

ADC Telecommunications - ADCT - cls: 5.42 chg: -0.08 stop: 5.06

Shares of ADCT continue to drift lower as the market waits on the 
economic data expected out tomorrow morning before the bell.  We 
would expect to be stopped out on bad news or to exit the play at 
$5.90 on good news.

Picked on January 3rd at $ 5.06
Change since picked:      +0.36
Earnings Date          11/28/01 (confirmed)




---

American Power Conversion - APCC - cls: 15.73 chg: -0.17 stop: 15.19

The broader market weakness on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday 
morning was enough to pull shares of APCC back from its position 
north of $16.  Today's early morning bounce marks the second time 
in four days that buyers have stepped in near the $15.35 level.  
Like many stocks on the exchanges, volume has dried up ahead of 
the PPI report tomorrow.  Traders should confirm bullish momentum 
before considering new positions.  Look for shares to trade back 
above the $16 level.

Picked on January 8th at $16.02
Change since picked:      -0.29
Earnings Date          01/31/02 (unconfirmed)






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ETR     Entergy Corp               41.10     +1.17
JP      Jefferson-Pilot Corp       46.95     +0.63
PMI     Pmi Group Inc              68.52     +1.45
OHP     Oxford Health Plans Inc    35.36     +2.61
AXL     American Axle & Mfg        20.92     +0.63
BOBE    Bob Evans Farms Inc        27.10     +0.88

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

GPS     Gap Inc                    16.35     +1.83
CRUS    Cirrus Logic Inc           18.03     +2.58
CLE     Claires Stores Inc         17.30     +1.88
UCR     Ucar Intl.                 12.00     +1.20
MIMS    Mim Corp                   19.21     +1.11
BELM    Bell Microproducts Inc     15.55     +1.35
HOLX    Hologic Inc                11.94     +1.34

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BK      Bank of New York           45.35     +1.89
S       Sears                      51.73     +2.28
MEDI    Medimmune Inc              47.33     +1.74
LNC     Lincoln National Corp      51.14     +1.31
BJ      BJ's Wholesale Club        44.36     +1.23
MCAF    Mcafee.com Corp            40.98     +1.06

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MMM     Minnesota Mining & Mfg    113.20     -1.45
DOW     Dow Chemical Co            31.06     -2.94
KYO     Kyocera Corp               65.00     -2.73
TBH     Telecom Brazil             37.29     -2.44
GD      General Dynamics           79.27     -1.73

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MU      Micron Technology          33.75     -1.26
XLNX    Xilinx Inc                 44.01     -0.53
TRB     Tribune Co                 38.10     -0.15
MGA     Magna Intl. Inc            65.65     -2.60
CMVT    Comverse Technology        24.27     -2.10
CREE    Cree Inc                   30.65     -0.57




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