Option Investor
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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 01/11/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 01-11-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Signs of economic recovery, but...
Play-of-the-Day:  Triple Bottom Breakdown
Watch List:       LGTO, VRTS, EPNY, MDT, ODP and more!
Market Sentiment: "Significant risks" weigh on markets.

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U.S. Market Numbers
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MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
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        WE 1-11           WE 1-4         WE 12-28         WE 12-21 
DOW     9987.53 -272.21 10259.74 +122.75 10136.99 +101.65  +224.19
Nasdaq  2022.46 - 36.92  2059.38 + 72.12  1987.26 + 41.92  -  7.34 
S&P-100  584.20 - 14.41   598.61 +  6.86   591.75 +  5.34  + 14.03 
S&P-500 1145.60 - 26.91  1172.51 + 11.49  1161.02 + 16.13  + 21.82 
W5000  10698.22 -234.10 10932.32 +113.75 10818.57 +173.64  +201.37 
RUT      489.94 -  9.36   499.30 +  5.68   493.62 +  9.60  + 12.73 
TRAN    2706.77 -123.43  2830.20 +187.15  2643.05 + 37.82  + 28.13 
VIX       23.98 +  1.96    22.02 -   .31    22.33 -   .96  -  2.68 
VXN       48.37 +  1.51    46.86 +   .92    45.94 -  5.02  -  1.83 
TRIN       1.44              .94              .73             1.08  
TICK       +290             +996            +1098            +1184 
Put/Call    .68              .67              .69              .69  
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WE= week ended

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Signs of economic recovery, but...

Stocks hovered near unchanged levels for the bulk of today's 
trading session.  Then Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan 
began giving a prepared speech in California and stocks began to 
drift lower and Treasury bonds rallied as cash moved to safety.

"There are sound reasons for concluding that the long-run picture 
remains bright, and even recent signals about the current course 
of the economy have turned from unremittingly negative through 
the late fall of last year to a far more mixed set of signals 
recently," Mr. Greenspan said.  The he followed with, "But I 
would emphasize that we continue to face significant risks in the 
near term."

Bond YIELD comparison for 10-year and 5-year





The 10-year Treasury (upper chart) is riskier than the 5-year 
Treasury (lower chart).  This makes sense based on risk/reward as 
the 10-year YIELDS 4.859%, while a buyer of the 5-year gets just 
4.06% (based on today's close).  In Wednesday's market wrap, we 
new we must monitor the bond market closely and try and track a 
move by the market on where cash might be flowing.  Yesterday we 
witnessed a move lower in bond YIELDS (buying in bonds) and today 
we got a follow through rally.  In the past, this has caused some 
near-term liquidity problems for stocks as cash moves to the 
perceived safety of bonds or stays on the sidelines.

This morning's PPI data showed little pricing pressure at the 
producer level, which was a very benign inflation number.  That 
number is backward looking, but it does help eliminate a 
"negative" reason from the Fed's checklist of reasons why they 
shouldn't cut rates further if needed to help further stimulate 
the economy.  The Fed's main job is to try and provide monetary 
policy for a strong economy, but also keep a lid on inflation, 
which can damage prolonged bullish economic activity.  With 
little inflation, the Fed has one less thing to worry about.

However, as we've said before, SOME inflation is a good sign.  It 
hints of some type of economic stimulus or growth.  Today's PPI 
number sure didn't set off any alerts that producers at the 
wholesale level have to pay a higher prices for commodities or 
raw materials.  The supply/demand economists undoubtedly looks at 
the low PPI numbers and doesn't see a lot of demand occurring at 
the producer level as prices remain flat.

With that, the recent two-day buying spree in Treasuries begins 
to make sense.

So what about those gold prices?  The February Gold futures 
(gc02g) were up about $0.30 to $287.80 today and recent action 
their along with today's PPI number now has me thinking that the 
action there was indeed some type of short-covering or there is 
still some type of "surprise" ahead that I don't know about.  The 
crystal ball just isn't working and I'm not seeing the future.

This is why we've been stressing to broader market equity bulls 
to tighten up some stops near-term, take some profits off the 
table and perhaps cut back on some trade sizes on stocks that 
still look bullish or breaking out.  There's been a large amount 
of money (as indicated by the bond YIELD charts) flow into the 
bond market and it looks like it's going there not for the high 
YIELDS, but for safety.

Don't think equity bears are sitting back in their lounge chairs 
right now and sipping a cold one.  When you look at the 10-year 
YIELD right now, it's still sitting right on a key moving average 
(the 50-day) and a retracement level.  All you and I have to do 
is monitor these levels.  I view the recent action in the bond 
market as worrisome for broader equities, but right now I don't 
see enough of a flee into bonds that would create a disparate 
liquidity problem for stocks.

The sharper move lower in the 5-year YIELD does tell me that 
there was some "umph" and aggressive buying in the shorter-end, 
but note how the 10-year is lagging.

Right now, this action makes sense.  Just like Alan Greenspan 
said.  There are signs that the longer-term is looking better, 
but there remains near-term uncertainty.  In all, the bond market 
action yesterday and then today mimics Mr. Greenspan's comments 
identically.  Especially when you measure the range of these 
bonds by retracement.  Note that the 5-year YIELD is already down 
at 38.2% retracement, while the 10-year YIELD is still up at 50% 
retracement.  The bond market is acting very rational and 
orderly.  The recent decline in YIELD does tell us though that 
money is gravitating toward safety, thus I feel a more defensive 
posture should be taken toward many equities/stocks.

SPDRS (AMEX:SPY) - Daily Interval




A trader that likes to use bond YIELDs to help him/her monitor 
where cash may be moving may want to set up their retracement 
bracket like I have in the SPDRS (AMEX:SPY).  We profiled a short 
play (bearish) in the SPDRS Wednesday evening and so far, the 
action in the SPY is starting to mimic what we're seeing in bond 
YIELDS.  I'm wanting to correlate the action in the 10-year YIELD 
with that of the SPY trade.  Note that the 10-year YIELD closed 
right on its 50-day MA and the SPRDS have yet to trade its 50-day 
MA of $114.35.  It's close, but not there yet.

I think an equity bear or bull for that matter can still make 
their case for being bearish or bullish.  I would not consider 
the current $0.63 gain (+0.54%) for our SPDRS trade a huge 
success.  Should money continue to flow toward bonds and 
liquidity dries up for stocks, bearish traders should make some 
money.  Even a longer-term bull that still wants to hold some 
stocks they bought significantly lower than current levels that 
does not want to sell, may have wanted to short some S&P SPDRS to 
help hedge a pullback in stocks.  If we were to see a SPY trading 
near $120, and the right things are taking place in the S&P 500 
bullish percent and bond markets, then we may well turn to cover 
and look to set up a bullish trade at a lower level, with an 
upside target of $117.  A lot has to happen between now and then 
and we will take it one day at a time.

As it always is and always should be.  Trade the underlying 
security on its own merits.  My scenario is that continued buying 
in Treasuries is a sign that the MARKET is defensive and cash is 
flowing into Treasuries.  When cash flows into Treasuries it 
can't flow into stocks at the same time.

This week's action

Last Friday we felt that gold stocks and oil stocks might be this 
week's best upside performers.  Well we got one right, but not 
necessarily the other.  We did try and play the gold move with 
shares of Placer Dome (NYSE:PDG), but today we would have been 
stopped out for break-even in that play.  This morning's PPI 
number sure seemed to be the wild card that just didn't come up 
in our favor.  The Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) fell fractionally 
today, but did manage to post this week's biggest sector gain of 
4.6%.  Here again, we see a more "defensive" sector outperform 
the market.  I will want to keep an eye on things here.  With the 
PPI indicated no inflation, the upward move in the commodity 
futures along with the stocks needs to be monitored.  If 
inflation is not present, then the move in gold futures is one of 
two things previously pointed out.  Simply a near-term "short-
squeeze" in that underlying commodity, or the MARKET is thinking 
there are some type of currency, geopolitical or debt troubles 
ahead.  The "short-squeeze" scenario would have little impact on 
the broader equity markets, but some type of trouble brewing in 
the geopolitical or debt/currency markets would have a negative 
impact.

Weekly Index/Sector Performance




As you can see, there wasn't a whole heck of a lot of bullishness 
in the equity markets this week.  Gold/Silver (XAU.X) was the 
clear standout.  I've highlighted a section of red that we want 
to talk about tonight.  In past commentary we've talked about the 
Airline Index (XAL.X), Dow Transportation Average (TRAN), Oil 
Index (OIX.X), Oil Service Index (OSX.X) and Natural Gas Index 
(XNG.X).

All 5 of these indexes were lower and much like the buying in 
bonds yet buying in gold that we saw this week that didn't make 
"economic" sense, some of the action we see in the energy and 
transportation sectors doesn't make sense.  Not on the surface 
anyway.

Fuel prices are the second largest expense next to labor for the 
airlines.  We all have seen lower gasoline prices at the pump in 
recent months and we know that oil prices are still hovering near 
$20/barrel.  OPEC has recently announced production cuts (whether 
they are cheating or not is another issue) and the slower global 
economy isn't creating excessive demand at this point.  Last 
Friday, Oil (OIX.X) was one sector I felt might be poised for a 
move higher, but that was wrong.  The sector performed relatively 
better than many technology sectors and slightly under performed 
the broader market averages.  Our bullish play in shares of 
Apache Corporation was stopped out today and subscribers that 
traded that stock should have been stopped out on the break back 
below the 200-day moving averages.  I hate losses, but I'm not 
going to dwell on it.  This stock remains my bullish candidate in 
the energy group, I think we were just too early.  I will monitor 
this stock and now look for support near the $45 level.  If she 
will pull back to that level and consolidate over the next week 
or two, and oil firms near $20/barrel, then expect to see this 
one back on the play list.

With a lower fuel cost, airlines and transportation stocks should 
benefit at the cost level.  It's the economy that needs to show 
improvement to create the catalyst for revenue growth to then 
drive earnings and keep bulls interested in the group.  I'm not 
immediately thinking that this week's in-unison move lower is all 
that startling, but airline bulls can't blame this weeks decline 
on high energy prices.  The transportation stocks have had nice 
moves and current action looks like profit taking.  However, this 
weeks weakness is noted and should be monitored.  One of my 
scenarios for a strengthening economy included bullishness in the 
Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN).  I've tried to "remove", 
but not ignore, the Airlines Index (XAL.X) from the scenario, 
because I do think there is a bit of concern for that group still 
lingering from the terrorist attacks.  

Dow Jones Transportation Average - Daily Interval




Today, the TRAN fell back below its long-term moving average.  
This week I will be keeping a close eye on how this index trades 
near its 200-day MA.  If institutions are thinking bullish 
economy going forward, we should expect support in the $2590-
$2655 area.  The current pattern looks very similar to that of 
July.

This is where BOND YIELDS become so important!!!!  I don't think 
I can stress this enough.  In July you can see how the MARKET 
rolled back into bonds, the cash that rolled there avoided stocks 
and the rest is history.  Now we're seeing similar action.  Study 
these charts.  What broader market equity bulls want to see is 
DIVERGENCE from the past.  What equity bears want to see is a 
repeat of history!

Hopefully every subscriber understands why I am taking a more 
defensive posture this week toward the broader stock market.  
There are some other reasons too.

S&P 500 Bullish Percent




Our key indicator for underlying technicals of 
bullishness/bearishness and assessing true market risk is the S&P 
500 bullish percent.  If you understand what a "buy signal" and a 
"sell signal" is from a point and figure chart, this is a very 
simple indicator to understand.  Levels of 70% or higher are 
considered "overbought" as 70% of the 500 stocks would show their 
point and figure chart currently on a buy signal.  Just remember, 
in October (red A at 22%) the S&P 500 turned to "bull alert" 
status and hinted that a bull market could be in the making.  The 
street light had turned from red to green and bulls could begin 
buying some stocks.  Now we're up at 68% and close to an 
"overbought" condition.  The internals as of tonight are still 
quite BULLISH, but we are getting near a higher risk level for 
bullish trades.  With some of the action we're seeing in the 
indexes (outward appearance) we look to the bullish percent to 
tell us about the internals.  Right now, the internals remain 
healthy, but we do no some stocks are starting to slip back a 
bit.  I consider current levels as "risky" for bulls and stops on 
many bullish positions should be tight.

At the same time it is VERY EARLY to be aggressively implementing 
bearish positions.  An account should not be holding an entirely 
short account.  There is NOTHING that says the S&P 500 bullish 
percent can't go all the way to 100%.  You can see how this 
indicator reached the 74% level in May (red 5) of last year.

Currently, I would only be implementing new bullish trades with a 
shorter-term trade in mind.  Conversely, I would ease into 
bearish trades with a 2 to 3 week timeframe in mind.  If the 
stock you short drops rapidly after initiating the trade, I would 
not hesitate to lock in a gain or move my stop lower.

ANY trade (long or short) should immediately be followed with a 
firm stop!

If you need to get some education on the bullish percent chart 
and buy/sell signals on point and figure charts, you can find an 
educational piece in the "Bailey's Basics" section of the site 
titled "Understanding Risk is Key."  

http://www.PremierInvestor.net/education/baileysbasics/110800_6.asp

Next week

We've been just about right on the money the past three Fridays 
on what the strong sectors will be.  This week I would be looking 
bullish on some healthcare stocks.  This week's strong 
performance by Oxford Health (NYSE:OHP) sure looks to have 
sparked some bullishness in the group.  It is entirely possible 
that a more "defensive" market environment does see some equity 
capital rotate out of some technology stocks and into this group.  
The Morgan Stanley Health Care Index (RXH.X) gained 0.37% today, 
but finished down 1.3% on the week.  On a relative strength 
basis, this group did outperform the broader market averages.  
Look for a few bullish plays to show up in this week's play list.  
I'd start out with 1/2 position to begin with and add to 
positions if we find success.

I'm going to shy away from technology on the bullish side this 
week and look for some technology related shorts.  Here too, I'd 
rather start out with some smaller positions and be willing to 
trade for profits near-term.  If we were to see a reversal back 
into O's in the S&P 500 bullish percent ($BPSPX) from 
www.stockcharts.com I would then get a little more aggressive.  
If a subscriber took our short trade in the SPDRS from January 
9th, I'm not sure we need to be getting overly bearish at this 
point.  If the S&P 500 bullish percent reverses into O's, then 
our SPY trade should be performing, we'll have a little breathing 
room and can then begin using that success to build on.

I want to touch on our short play in Metro One Telecom 
(NASDAQ:MTON) and go back to Wednesday night's market wrap.  

Wednesday Night's comments on MTON

One sector that did show marked weakness today was the 
telecommunication sector.  I have to give credit to James 
and his pick last night on the short-side in shares of Metro One 
Telecommunications (NASDAQ:MTON).  As it is with any trade, 
success/failure can only be measured once the trade is closed, 
but today's action in the broader telecom group did look bearish.  
As of tonight's close, this stock is sitting right on some 
support levels.  One comes from the point and figure chart with 
the bullish support trend at $26.  This is right at a level where 
the stock shot higher in late October.  FOLLOW THE STOP as 
outlined by James in the play.  The stock is also sitting right 
near a level of retracement support at $26.43 and may be very 
close to a level where shorts are looking to cover.  Keep a tight 
stop on this one.  If she breaks the $26 level, we could see a 
test of the recent lows near $22-$23.

Friday January 11th resumption

I should have probably put up a chart of MTON on Wednesday night, 
but as is usually the case, I have deadlines to meet and get 
things out on time, especially mid-week.  Here's the bar chart of 
MTON.  You can get a free point and figure chart of MTON at 
www.stockcharts.com and compare the notes from Wednesday night to 
the point and figure chart.  I think you will see exactly what I 
was "warning" against from Wednesday and can perhaps use that in 
future trades and know what to be looking for.  The stock didn't 
break the $26 level and the stock rallied off support.

Metro One Telecom Chart - Daily Interval




We've all had trades where we felt "If she breaks this level 
she's going to crater."  As pointed out in Wednesday night's 
wrap, MTON was sitting right on a retracement level of support.  
A trader that did move down their stop "keep a tight stop" (we 
didn't do it in the play list) is probably glad they did.

I'm not showing you this chart to "scare you away from shorting!"  
I'm showing it to you so that BEARISH traders don't get 
complacent with profits, ESPECIALLY when a stock is sitting right 
on a support level.  Remember, MTON was not only sitting on 
retracement support, it was also sitting on its bullish support 
trend on the point and figure chart!

Metro One Telecom Chart - $1 and $0.50 box




Just like that, the point and figure chart of Metro One Telecom 
(MTON) looks very bullish.  Think about it.  Bullish support 
trend held.  An institution may be bullish this stock and was a 
buyer from $26.01 to $30 and may still be a buyer.  With a 
bullish vertical count of $64 current risk for a bull suddenly 
becomes ... risking a stop at $26 with a longer-term target of 
$64!  That's a risk/reward of $4/$34.  The point and figure chart 
shows that this stock could easily rally to the $37 level.  If 
still short and using retracement from the bar chart like I've 
had it, I would not be willing to give this stock too much room 
above the $31 level.  It's way to easy for bulls to be assessing 
risk and making bets right now.  We took our shot at it from the 
bearish side and lost.  Will avoid near term.  MACD on the daily 
is starting to round a bit.  Too uncertain on this one and since 
it hit our stop, will stay on the sidelines.

Support levels don't always hold, but sometimes when you get two 
or three levels of support, there are too many traders 
(institutional and retail) watching a level.  We should have 
moved our stop down tight in the play list.

Well... I'm way past deadline again.  It's a Friday night and we 
worked hard this week.  Rest up and be sharp next week.  I think 
we're going to need our mental energy!

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================

Pharmaceutical Res. - PRX - close: 27.30 change: -0.71 stop: 29.51

Company Description:
PRI, a holding company, develops, manufactures, and distributes a 
broad line of generic pharmaceutical products primarily through 
its wholly owned subsidiary, Par Pharmaceutical. (source: company 
press releases)

Why We Like It:
The bears are probably drooling all over this one.  PRX was one 
of the best performers of 2001 after climbing from $6.26 in 
January 2001 to $42 in early August.  However, the last five 
months have seen the stock consolidate sideways with a very drawn 
out bearish wedge pattern.  The stock has been producing lower 
highs while support has held between $29 and $30.  That support 
just gave out and the daily chart confirms a triple bottom 
breakdown on the point-and-figure chart.  With fresh new sell 
signal and no support on the p-n-f chart until $20, we think PRX 
may have a tough time stopping the descent.  The daily chart 
shows a breakdown below its 200-dma on Thursday and a failed 
rally at it again on Friday.  Normally, investors turn to the 
drug and healthcare sector as possible "safe havens" when the 
broader market is weak.  This was seen again as many stocks in 
those two groups did well Thursday and Friday.  Not so for PRX 
who seems to be turning a deaf ear to any leadership from its 
sector-mates.  We're going to start the play with a stop at 
$29.51 but more conservative traders could try a stop near 
Friday's high.  Recent news about them buying a chemical 
operation ISP FineTech from International Specialty Products 
(NYSE:ISP) did not seem to have any positive affect on the stock.  
Short-term traders can target the $25 level but potential support 
at $22.50 from mid-June might be a possibility as well.  

Picked on January 11th at $27.30
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           10/25/01 (confirmed)






==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Legato Systems Inc. - LGTO - close: 16.70 change: +0.58

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of LGTO were pretty strong on Friday with a 
3.5% gain.  The stock has had a great run and the bulls don't 
look like they are ready to quit just yet.  We really like the 
dip to $15.40 on Thursday and the quick intraday rebound.  The 
chart is telling us LGTO wants to breakout over resistance at 
$16.80.  Unfortunately, we think there is tougher resistance at 
$18 from its high back in May.  Very short-term traders willing 
to scalp a point may want to try it but for the rest of us it 
looks like one to keep an eye on.  Earnings are expected on Jan. 
29th.  Keep an eye on the GSO.X software index.




---

VERITAS Software - VRTS - close: 46.48 change: -0.95 

WHAT TO WATCH: VRTS is another software stock that has a very 
bullish trend on it.  Bears have got to keep wondering just when 
it will stop to finally pull back.  Aside from a couple of 
volatile dips, VRTS has been ascending in a nice channel higher 
from early October.  The last several sessions have shown $50 to 
be tough resistance.  However, this has allowed VRTS to work on 
building support at $46 just above its 200-dma.  While a 
breakdown below $46 would be negative and a strong caution flag, 
the ascending channel would need a break below $44.50 to really 
worry the bulls.  Aggressive buyers might want to try entry 
points near the 200-dma but don't forget your stop.  Earnings are 
expected on Jan. 29th.




---

E.Piphany, Inc. - EPNY - close: 10.97 change: +1.24

WHAT TO WATCH: Wow!  A 12.7% move on Friday with volume five 
times higher than normal.  That's a very bullish signal for this 
Internet stock, excuse me, software stock.  This big move came on 
top of the big gains from Wednesday.  This is a clear breakout 
over resistance at $10 and bulls are probably excited about the 
prospects.  We'd be excited too but the bears may have a big 
bucket of cold water to splash on everyone.  First of all, EPNY 
has a lot of congestion near $12 from June.  This could come into 
play.  More importantly, Friday's rally stopped dead at the 
descending bearish resistance line on EPNY's point-and-figure 
chart.  The question now is whether the bears will be able to out 
power the bulls who just opened up with a big move.  Will weak 
bears try to cover shorts or will small time bulls try and take 
profits?  We would not chase this but it's definitely one to 
watch.




---

Medtronic - MDT - close: 49.36 change: +0.62

WHAT TO WATCH: We really like the pattern on shares of MDT for a 
potential bullish trade.  You'll notice that this weekend we 
started two new healthcare stocks expecting the sector to rally 
higher next week.  MDT could join them.  The pull back to support 
at $48 and the leisurely consolidation just above it followed by 
Thursday and Friday's positive moves looks like a great set up.  
We would consider a long play here with a stop at $47.99.  More 
conservative traders may want to wait for shares to trade over 
$50 again.




---

Office Depot Inc - ODP - close: 16.84 change: +0.06

WHAT TO WATCH: Believe it or not, we think ODP is also offering a 
great set up.  We strongly considered adding it as a high-risk 
play for the weekend but just ran out of time.  Shares are still 
in a long-term bullish trend and the recent weakness has brought 
it back to a great entry point.  Chart readers may want to try 
this approach.  Draw a trendline from the low in September 
through the low in November and extend it through this week.  
Late October and mid-November shows several days where the stock 
bounced at this bullish support line.  The last two sessions show 
the stock trading near it again.  We would consider it a long 
play here with a stop at $16.49 or even $15.99 if you're willing 
to take 5% heat.  Earnings are expected in February.





=============
MORE TO WATCH
=============

Potential Bullish
-----------------

TECD - rallied back to resistance at $48.  look for breakout.
WEBM - building short-term bullish wedge for break over $22.
CRUS - great breakout on big volume, look for pull back.
LIN  - nice big volume breakout.  look for pullback, aim for $30.
CMNT - strong rally. short-term overbought, wait for pullback.
GMST - possible bottom on Thursday, high risk buy now. Use stop.
VIP  - nice breakout with volume.  Look for support $28 - $28.50.

Potential Bearish
-----------------

ACF  - big breakdown on big volume.  Aim for $22 or $20.
MSCC - big breakdown under 200-dma. Aim for $22.50 or $20.
NBR  - big volume break under support of $30, aim for $26.
NMTC - two big volume down days, break under support at $30.
LOW  - will probably trade to $40, wait for bounce or breakdown.
THQI - potential short. look for $45 to fail.  Aim for $40.
RYL  - nice breakdown, possible short to $62.50 or $60.00.
KBH  - recent sector weakness, break under support of $38.


One Way or the Other
--------------------

ASIA - pulled back to support at $20.  Great aggressive entry for
       a long play with a tight stop.  Under $20, aim for $18.
FDX  - reaction to downgrade on Friday.  will support at $50 
       hold?  will it bounce?  Under $50 would aim for $45.	
     



================
Market Sentiment
================

"Significant risks" weigh on markets.
by Russ Moore

Mr. Greenspan’s mid-afternoon speech failed to give investors the 
green light they were looking for, sparking a broad-based market 
decline.

The DOW was off -0.8 percent while the NASDAQ shed -1.2 percent 
and the NDX -1.4 percent. Volume was light with most of the 
action taking place in the late going. The NYSE saw 1.19 billion 
shares change hands and the NASDAQ 1.63 billion. Losers outpaced 
winners by an 18/13 margin on the big board and 21/15 on the 
NASDAQ.

Plenty of red ink on the boards today with oil service, airline, 
natural gas and retail leading the pack on the broader markets. 
Software and networker sectors were the worst performers on the 
tech side.

The Producer Price Index fell -0.7 percent versus the -0.2 
percent expected. A steep decline in energy prices was the 
catalyst for the drop.

Trim Tabs reported inflows of 5.9 billion dollars for the week 
ending January 9. Trim Tabs noted that individual and corporate 
investors have been net sellers over the first six days of this 
year, giving the fund flow tracker no reason to change its’ 
bearish posture.

The DOW’s fall below 10,000 and failure to stay above its’ 200DMA 
will not sit well with the bulls. The bulls were looking for a 
positive tone to the Greenspan speech, and Mr. G. disappointed. 
Of course, positive surprises over the earnings season could turn 
the sagging sentiment around, however, a more likely scenario is 
more cautious, sideways action until the next major catalyst 
arrives.


Friday 01/11 close: 23.98


VXN
Friday 01/11 close: 48.44


30-yr Bonds
Friday 01/11 close: 5.41


Total Put/Call Ratio: .68


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .57


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.43


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 40.85

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/124,903
Maximum puts : 40/103,250

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 40
 20 DMA 40
 50 DMA 39
200 DMA 40

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 584.20

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 590/5,431
Maximum puts : 580/5,647

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  591
 20 DMA  586
 50 DMA  583
200 DMA  599

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1145.60

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/39,278
Maximum puts : 1150/35,970
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1158
 20 DMA 1149
 50 DMA 1139
200 DMA 1167

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,987.53

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/13,730
Maximum Puts   100/29,379

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA 10,116
 20 DMA 10,048
 50 DMA  9,876
200 DMA 10,102

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 561.98

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 660/ 354
Maximum Puts:  540/974

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 568
 20 DMA 574
 50 DMA 580
200 DMA 542

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 568.89

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 440/ 847
Maximum Puts:  470/2,084

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 567
 20 DMA 551
 50 DMA 536
200 DMA 555

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 380.06

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/ 525
Maximum Puts:  360/1035

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 378
 20 DMA 380
 50 DMA 388
200 DMA 390

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/11. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/25/01     412,581   471,239   (58,658)   (9.7%)
01/01/02     338,288   407,107   (68,729)   17.1% 
01/08/02     333,742   398,283   (64,541)   (6.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/05/01       152,521    79,444    73,077    (6.1%)
01/01/02       127,419    55,576    71,843    (1.6%)
01/08/02       130,335    60,780    69,555    (3.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/25/01      55,250    47,476     7,774   
01/01/02      29,801    37,497    (7,696)
01/08/02      30,786    37,457    (6,671)    (13.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/25/01       15,810    25,687   (9,877)
01/01/02       10,649     5,913    4,736   
01/08/02       10,073     6,404    3,669    (22.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/25/01      15,492     7,335    8,157       .6%
01/01/02      15,820     7,553    8,267      1.3%
01/08/02      15,921     7,981    7,940     (3.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/25/01       4,293     9,086    (4,793)     15.4%
01/01/02       3,368     8,668    (5,300)     10.6%
01/08/02       4,380     9,188    (4,808)     (9.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +69,555     +71,843        -64,541     -68,729

Total Open
Interest %       (+36.39%)  (+39.26%)      (-8.82%)   (-9.22%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -4,808     -5,300          +7,940    8,267
Total Open
interest %       (-35.44%)    (-44.03%)      (+33.22%)  (+35.37)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +3,669      +4,736         -6,671    -7,696

Total Open
Interest %        (+22.27%)   (+28.60%)     (-9.78%) (-11.44%)
                 net-short   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.No significant changes this week as Commercials continue 
to sit net-short on the SPX with little change over last week’s 
numbers.

Gold: Despite a red-hot week for the gold market, Commercial 
players were busy adding to their net-short positions. This may 
be an early signal that the bullish run is coming to an end. 

12/11 13,626 contracts net-long
12/18 15,198 contracts net-short
12/25 11,976 contracts net-short
01/01 14,555 contracts net-short
01/08 24,042 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 01/08 by the CFTC.




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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 01-11-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Play:     NXTL
  Bullish Play Updates: SFA 
  Closed Bearish Plays: MTON

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Plays:     IKN, TGH, UNH
  New Bearish Plays:     PRX
  Bullish Play Updates:  BGP, NCOG
  Bearish Play Updates:  ADRX, SPY, VGR
  Closed Bullish Plays:  APA, LAB, PDG, UVN

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     ALTR
  Bullish Play Updates:  ADCT, APCC

Split Trader
  - none -


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB New Plays
===============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Nextel Comm. - NXTL - close: 10.00 change: -0.19 stop: see text

Company Description:
Nextel Communications Inc., based in Reston, Va., is a leading 
provider of fully integrated wireless communications services and 
has built the largest guaranteed all-digital wireless network in 
the United States covering thousands of communities across the 
United States. Nextel and Nextel Partners, Inc., currently serve 
195 of the top 200 U.S. markets.  Through recent market launches, 
Nextel service is available today in areas of the U.S. where 
approximately 230 million people live or work. In addition, 
through Nextel International, Inc., Nextel has wireless 
operations and investments primarily in selected Latin America 
markets. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Everyone seems to agree that telecom and now wireless stocks have 
been weak and will continue to be weak as the market waits for 
the economic environment to improve.  Despite this, we've had 
some tough luck on telecom plays lately.  Therefore we're going 
to make NXTL trigger out entry point before opening the play.  
Looking at NXTL's chart might make one think shares could easily 
pull back to the $8 or $9 range.  The last couple of sessions the 
stock has rolled over at the 50-dma just overhead.  MACD is 
rolling over again but with Friday's close right at $10.00 we 
want some confirmation before we (hypothetically) go short.  
Thursday's low was near $9.80.  Therefore, if NXTL trades $9.79 
we'll go short and open the play with a stop at $10.22.  We want 
to keep the stop close because we're not willing to risk a lot if 
shares reverse on us.  This should keep our initial risk near 4%.  
Very short-term traders may want to try for $9.00, which would be 
an 8% drop from 9.79.  Looking at the point-and-figure chart we 
don't see any possible support until the $8.00 to $8.50 area.  
Therefore we're going to start the play with an actual exit price 
of $8.01 but we might adjust it higher as the play progresses.  
Earnings are expected in late January but part of the risk is any 
surprisingly positive earnings announcements or conference calls 
from other players in the group.

Picked on January 11th at $xx.xx <-- see play notes above
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           01/28/02 (unconfirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Scientific Atlanta - SFA - cls: 26.02 chg: -0.73 stop: 24.73

Our gains in SFA continue to slip away as the Dow Jones marks its 
fifth loss in a row.  For SFA it was an unhappy Friday with the 
stock under selling pressure throughout the session.  Shares did 
dip below support at $26 near the close but managed a last gasp 
attempt to trade back over it and succeeded.  We are cautious on 
the stock given current market conditions and new positions 
should only be considered with great care.  Preferably, the stock 
and the market should both be moving up before we'd commit new 
capital.  Look for earnings on next Thursday.

Picked on December 28th at $24.73
Change since picked:        +1.29
Earnings Date            01/17/02 (confirmed)





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bearish Play
  -------------------

Metro One Telecom. - MTON - cls: 29.80 chg: +0.30 stop: 30.21

The MTON rebound continued into Friday morning and shares traded 
through our stop price closing the play.  Optimistic investors 
could be looking at this as a potential turnaround but shares of 
MTON still remain under its 15-dma, which have been shadowing the 
descent since early December.  Fundamentally, we don't see a 
reason for the turnaround so it looks like a technical bounce.  
The close under $29 should be an encourage for bears who are 
still in or looking to enter a short play.

Picked on January 8th at $28.40
Gain since picked:        -1.81
Earnings Date          02/07/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT New Plays
===============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Ikon Office Solutions - IKN - cls: 12.31 chg: +0.27 stop: 11.69

Company Description:
IKON Office Solutions is one of the world's leading providers of 
products and services that help businesses communicate. IKON 
provides customers with total business solutions for every 
office, production and outsourcing need, including copiers and 
printers, color solutions, distributed printing, facilities 
management, imaging and legal document solutions, as well as 
network design and consulting, e-business development and 
technology training. IOS Capital, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary 
of IKON, provides lease financing to customers and is one of the 
largest captive finance companies in North America. With Fiscal 
2001 revenues of $5.3 billion, IKON has approximately 600 
locations worldwide.  (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We are returning to a long play in IKN as the stock is showing 
great relative strength against the market.  Readers can double 
check with a relative strength point-and-figure chart versus the 
S&P 500.  With the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq trading lower on 
Friday, shares of IKN were hitting new highs and even tested new 
support at $12 intraday before bouncing higher into the close.  
This is a new 52-week high for the stock and the bounce off of 
$11.75 on Thursday came on very strong volume of 1.1M shares.  
The stock has a great bullish trend and the recent sideways 
consolidation may be enough of a base to allow it to build its 
next leg higher.  Given the current market conditions as somewhat 
bearish or cautious, we are going to play with a pretty tight 
stop.  Thursday's low was 11.73.  We're going to start with a 
stop at $11.69.  Our risk should only be 62 cents.  Earnings are 
expected on Friday, January 25th, 2002.  This gives us two weeks 
to see if bulls can push it up ahead of earnings.  Confirm stock 
direction before playing.

Picked on January 11th at $12.31 
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           01/25/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Trigon Healthcare - TGH - close: 71.42 change: +1.03 stop: 68.49

Company Description:
Trigon is Virginia's largest managed health care company, 
providing a broad range of health, wellness and health care 
financing programs and services to 2 million members. (source: 
company press release)

Why We Like It:
One group that seems unfazed by the recent market weakness are 
healthcare stocks.  Historically, the drug and healthcare sectors 
are industries that attract investor money during times of 
weakness or worry as they tend to have pretty steady earnings.  
This doesn't always happen at every bearish market move but it is 
common enough that many investors remember its occurrence. This 
is also another relative strength play as TGH has really been out 
performing the market.  Shares had recently been consolidating 
under long-time resistance at $70 and Wednesday of this week lead 
the breakout over it.  The technical upside breakout was also 
confirmed on the point-and-figure chart so the stock doesn't have 
any near-term overhead resistance.  Dips to $70 should be buyable 
but we're going to play with a relatively tight stop of less than 
five percent at $68.49.  TGH has earnings in early February.

Picked on January 11th at $71.42 
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           02/08/02 (unconfirmed)




---

UnitedHealth Group - UNH - close: 71.75 change: +1.15 stop: 68.49

Company Description:
UnitedHealth Group is a diversified health and well-being company 
that provides a broad spectrum of resources and services to help 
people improve their health and well-being through all stages of 
life. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Another healthcare player that some of the analysts in our office 
think might be a winner is UNH.  Shares have been working through 
a lot of congestion near the $70 level but at the same time it 
looks like it has been building support between $68 and $68.50.  
MACD has bottomed near the zero line and is about to turn 
bullish.  We also like the bullish pattern on the point-and-
figure chart for UNH.  More conservative players may want to wait 
for shares to actually conquer the $72.50 level but we think dips 
back to $70 may be entry points as well.  We're also going to 
play this one with a relative tight stop at $68.49.  We don't 
have an earnings date yet but we expect an announcement in late 
January.

Picked on January 11th at $12.31 
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           10/26/01 (confirmed)





  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Pharmaceutical Res. - PRX - close: 27.30 change: -0.71 stop: 29.51

Company Description:
PRI, a holding company, develops, manufactures, and distributes a 
broad line of generic pharmaceutical products primarily through 
its wholly owned subsidiary, Par Pharmaceutical. (source: company 
press releases)

Why We Like It:
The bears are probably drooling all over this one.  PRX was one 
of the best performers of 2001 after climbing from $6.26 in 
January 2001 to $42 in early August.  However, the last five 
months have seen the stock consolidate sideways with a very drawn 
out bearish wedge pattern.  The stock has been producing lower 
highs while support has held between $29 and $30.  That support 
just gave out and the daily chart confirms a triple bottom 
breakdown on the point-and-figure chart.  With fresh new sell 
signal and no support on the p-n-f chart until $20, we think PRX 
may have a tough time stopping the descent.  The daily chart 
shows a breakdown below its 200-dma on Thursday and a failed 
rally at it again on Friday.  Normally, investors turn to the 
drug and healthcare sector as possible "safe havens" when the 
broader market is weak.  This was seen again as many stocks in 
those two groups did well Thursday and Friday.  Not so for PRX 
who seems to be turning a deaf ear to any leadership from its 
sector-mates.  We're going to start the play with a stop at 
$29.51 but more conservative traders could try a stop near 
Friday's high.  Recent news about them buying a chemical 
operation ISP FineTech from International Specialty Products 
(NYSE:ISP) did not seem to have any positive affect on the stock.  
Short-term traders can target the $25 level but potential support 
at $22.50 from mid-June might be a possibility as well.  

Picked on January 11th at $27.30
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           10/25/01 (confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Borders Group Inc - BGP - cls: 21.02 chg: +0.67 stop: 20.99*new*

As reported in Thursday's newsletter, Borders reported great 
sales numbers and strong same store sales numbers after the bell 
last night.  The company raised their earnings estimates and 
shares of the stock were trading higher after hours.  When the 
market opened this morning, BGP was able to gap higher and trade 
to $21.90 while the rest of the market suffered losses in 
reaction to the PPI numbers.  The bulls tried to keep the rally 
alive but by midday the Greenspan comments were out and the stock 
pulled back into the close.  Reporters continued to follow up on 
the BGP numbers last night and analysts believe that bookstores 
were/are among the few businesses benefiting from the cocooning 
effect in America after Sept. 11th.  One Reuters story said the 
"price is right" for books given the fallen economy.  We're 
obviously encouraged by BGP's strength but it is disappointing 
that it could not hold on to its gains.  Given that many 
investors may have been buying BGP during the holiday season in 
hopes of positive news, now that Christmas is over and the pre-
announcement is out, there may not be much more reason to hold on 
to it.  It's possible that buyers may still try to run it up into 
the actual earnings announcement but we're going to play it safe 
and put a very tight stop under today's low.  Our new stop will 
be $20.99, which should protect a gain of 4.6%.

Picked on December 27th at $20.05 
Change since picked:        +0.97
Earnings Date            01/31/02 (confirmed)




---

NCO Group, Inc. - NCOG - cls: 24.25 change: -0.80 stop: 23.75 *new*

It is encouraging for bullish traders that shares of NCOG have 
been able to hold above the $24 level of support during the 
current market weakness.  Yet at the same time, given the current 
market conditions and resistance at $25, we are turning cautious 
on the stock.  We would not suggest new plays unless NCOG bounced 
convincingly at the $24 level or closes back above $25.  As it 
stands now we are going to tighten our stop to $23.75 in a plan 
to reduce our exposure should NCOG see more selling pressure.  

Picked on January 3rd at $24.17 
Change since picked:      +0.08
Earnings Date          11/06/01 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Andrx Group - ADRX - close: 63.82 change: -0.34 stop: 66.02 

Running contrary to the rest of the market, shares of ADRX 
actually traded higher midday to $65.59 before pulling back as 
investors headed into the weekend.  This was the fourth and most 
aggressive test of new overhead resistance at its 200-dma 
(between $65.50 and $66.00) in the last four sessions.  Our view 
from Thursday hasn't changed and we would wait for a close under 
$62 or $60 before starting new short positions.

Picked on January 4th at $64.14 
Change since picked:      +0.32
Earnings Date          10/25/01 (confirmed)




---

SPDRS on the S&P 500 - SPY - cls: 114.94 chg: -1.14 stop: 118.25

That's more like it.  The SPY SPDRS spent the majority of the day 
in negative territory.  Selling pressure in the overall market 
lead the SPY to close below $115 but now bears face potential 
support at $114, where the SPY bounce twice in the last three 
weeks as well as the 50-dma at $114.35.  Given the market 
reaction today, this play could be a winner.

Picked on January 9th at $115.57
Change since picked:       +0.63
Earnings Date                n/a 




---

Vector Group - VGR - close: 27.43 change: -0.37 stop: 30.01 *new*

Another down day for our tobacco short on VGR.  Shares bounced 
higher in early morning trading, which was contrary to the 
majority of the market action Friday morning.  Fortunately for 
the bears, selling pressure held the VGR advance to $28.25 and 
kept it there most of the day.  When VGR began to fade again in 
the afternoon $27 continued to act as support.  We're still 
aiming for an active exit price of $25.00.  Shorts looking for 
new entries may want to wait for the stock to breakdown under $27 
again.  We are going to pull our stop down to $30.01.  More 
conservative traders have plenty of room to tighten their stops 
if ours is too wide.  One alternative would be to use Thursday's 
high near $28.50 as a guide to place your stop.

Picked on January 9th at $28.80
Change since picked:      +1.37
Earnings Date          11/14/01 (confirmed)






===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bullish Play
  -------------------

Apache Corp - APA - close: 46.75 change: -1.38 stop: 46.99 

It was a poor day all around for the oil sector on Friday.  
Reaction to the PPI and Greenspan's comments had the price of 
crude trading lower.  This affected the OIX, oil index, which 
fell through potential support at 295 and the OSX, oil service 
index, which fell 3.9% through both its 50-dma and potential 
support at 80.  Likewise, shares of APA traded below Jan. 3rd's 
low near $47.40 and closed under the $47 mark.  This stopped us 
out with a $1.55 loss.

Picked on January 4th at $48.54 
Gain since picked:        -1.55
Earnings Date          10/25/01 (confirmed)




---

Labranche & Co Inc - LAB - close: 34.38 change: -0.98 stop: 33.74

We are calling it quits on our LAB play.  The overall market 
weakness was enough to pull the stock under support at $35.  
Another factor in our decision was the perilous pattern 
developing on the XBD.X broker/dealer index.  It looks like the 
group is building a short-term bearish wedge.  Earnings for LAB 
are next Friday so there may still be some bulls willing to hitch 
a ride.  Technical traders may not be willing to give up just yet 
and give LAB one more day.  If you connect the lows from the late 
November low then LAB has pulled back to that trendline and 
stopped.

Picked on January 4th at $36.11 
Change since picked:      -1.73
Earnings Date          01/18/02 (confirmed)




---

Placer Dome - PDG - close: 11.77 change: -0.05 stop: 11.64 

Gold's reaction to the economic data this morning was initially 
negative.  The XAU.X, Gold & Silver index, dipped sharply in 
early morning trading but rebounded for a small loss.  This move 
was reflected in shares of PDG with a similar morning spike down 
to the $11.50 level of support.  Both the XAU and PDG both 
rebounded quickly but it was enough to stop us out at the 
breakeven point of $11.64.  Those traders with a longer time 
frame may want to keep their eye on the gold sector.  The bounce 
in PDG was a perfect dip to its 10-dma and which may set up for a 
stronger move higher.  However, one thing to keep in mind is that 
the PPI numbers today do not reflect any inflation concerns.  The 
absence of inflation worries is one less reason for investors to 
buy gold.

Picked on January 4th at $11.64 
Gain since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date          10/24/01 (confirmed)




---

Univision - UVN - close: 39.93 change: -0.87 stop: 38.99 

Two new positive broker comments for UVN and its affiliates were 
not enough to keep the stock above $40 and shares sold off with 
the market.  First off, Lehman Brothers came out with new 
coverage of a "buy" rating on Entravision Communications 
(NYSE:EVC) which is an affiliate of UVN.  The analyst felt that 
EVC had strong growth potential for the domestic market.  The 
second broker comment came from UBS Warburg who started UVN with 
a "strong buy".  Unfortunately, the cheerleading by brokers were 
not enough to support the stock price.  UVN fell throughout most 
of the day and lost almost three percent by the close.  We did 
note the very strong volume and saw one very large trade for 250K 
shares near 11:23 a.m. at $39.44.  We'd love to know which 
broker/mutual fund that sold their stake in UVN after these 
positive comments.  At this point, with support broken we would 
expect UVN to fall back to the $37 level of support or $36 where 
its 200-dma currently resides.  

Picked on December 28th at $40.89 
Gain since picked:          -1.90
Earnings Date            11/06/01 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR New Plays
===============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Altera Corp. - ALTR - close: 24.20 change: -0.69 stop: 25.56

Company Description:
Altera Corporation is the world's pioneer of system-on-a-
programmable-chip (SOPC) solutions. Combining programmable logic 
technology with software tools, intellectual property, and 
technical services, Altera provides high-value programmable 
solutions to approximately 14,000 customers worldwide. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
On Tuesday, Altera offered positive comments that the bottom for 
the chip sector may have been found but the good news and all the 
hype wasn't enough to keep shares over its 200-dma.  
Additionally, the SOX.X chip index has had trouble with the 600 
level and may be looking for another pull back of its own.  There 
is a lot of congestion for ALTR between $20 and $26 so it's hard 
to pick a target but short-term traders might want to aim for 
$22.  If you have more conviction about a pull back in the 
semiconductor group then aim for support at $20, which is support 
both on the daily chart and the point-and-figure chart.  We are 
going to start the play with a stop at Friday's high ($25.56).  
Part of the risk with this short play is Intel's earnings 
announcement this coming Tuesday.  If INTC produces some really 
positive results or really talks up the conference call then ALTR 
might rally with it on Wednesday.  

Picked on January 11th at $24.20
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date                n/a





===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

ADC Telecommunications - ADCT - cls: 5.15 chg: -0.27 stop: 5.06

We're a bit surprised that our ADCT play is still open.  With the 
broad market weakness on Friday we had expected ADCT to stop us 
out at $5.06.  Shares did close near their low for the day but 
bulls were able to stop the decent at ADCT's 10-dma.  Odds are 
very good that Monday morning will stop us out but we're going to 
leave the play open just in case the weekend gives buyers a new 
fresh perspective.  The company came out with their new earnings 
date, which will be Feb. 19th, 2002.

Picked on January 3rd at $ 5.06
Change since picked:      +0.09
Earnings Date          02/19/02 (confirmed)




---

American Power Conversion - APCC - cls: 15.52 chg: -0.21 stop: 15.19

There hasn't been any new signficant news for the company but 
buyers were able to support the stock at support.  This marks the 
third day this week that $15.35 has held up under selling 
pressure.  The 10-dma also supports this level but bullish 
traders may want to wait for the stock to display some strength 
by closing back above $16 before considering new plays.  We don't 
have a lot of room between support (15.35) and our stop (15.19).  
Any new weakness in the markets next week could stop us out.

Picked on January 8th at $16.02
Change since picked:      -0.50
Earnings Date          01/31/02 (unconfirmed)







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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 01-11-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
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In section three:

Market Watch for Week of January 14th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      

=================================================================


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of January 14th
==================================================

  ------------------------
  Major Earnings This Week
  ------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est   

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

ADTN   ADTRAN                 Mon, Jan 14  Before the Bell  0.16
ET     E*TRADE                Mon, Jan 14  After the Bell   0.04
NTRS   Northern Trust         Mon, Jan 14  Before the Bell  0.54
SPOT   PanAmSat               Mon, Jan 14  -----N/A-----    0.02

------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ALS    Alstom SA              Tue, Jan 15  -----N/A-----     N/A
ASO    AmSouth Bancorporation Tue, Jan 15  -----N/A-----    0.38
BBOX   Black Box Net. Serv.   Tue, Jan 15  Before the Bell  0.79
COF    Capital One Financial  Tue, Jan 15  After the Bell   0.80
DCLK   DoubleClick            Tue, Jan 15  After the Bell  -0.05
EBAY   eBay                   Tue, Jan 15  -----N/A-----    0.12
FITB   Fifth Third Bancorp    Tue, Jan 15  Before the Bell  0.65
FRX    Forest Laboratories    Tue, Jan 15  Before the Bell  0.44
GSB    Golden State Bancorp   Tue, Jan 15  Before the Bell  0.76
GMH    Hughes Electronics     Tue, Jan 15  -----N/A-----   -0.12
IEX    Idex                   Tue, Jan 15  Before the Bell  0.23
INTC   Intel                  Tue, Jan 15  After the Bell   0.11
JNC    John Nuveen            Tue, Jan 15  Before the Bell  0.60
JNPR   Juniper Networks       Tue, Jan 15  After the Bell   0.05
LLTC   Linear Technology      Tue, Jan 15  After the Bell   0.14
MEL    Mellon Bank            Tue, Jan 15  -----N/A-----    0.38
PLT    Plantronics            Tue, Jan 15  -----N/A-----    0.15
PCP    Precision Castparts    Tue, Jan 15  Before the Bell  0.64
PMTC   PTC                    Tue, Jan 15  Before the Bell  0.03
RJF    Raymond James          Tue, Jan 15  -----N/A-----    0.48
RFMD   RF Micro Devices       Tue, Jan 15  After the Bell   0.02
RDC    Rowan Companies        Tue, Jan 15  Before the Bell -0.08
LUV    Southwest Airlines     Tue, Jan 15  -----N/A-----   -0.01
TER    Teradyne               Tue, Jan 15  After the Bell  -0.42
TKS    Tomkins                Tue, Jan 15  -----N/A-----     N/A
TSS    TSYS                   Tue, Jan 15  -----N/A-----    0.15
TYC    Tyco International     Tue, Jan 15  Before the Bell  0.72
USB    US Bancorp             Tue, Jan 15  -----N/A-----    0.40
WM     Washington Mutual      Tue, Jan 15  After the Bell   0.95
WFC    Wells Fargo            Tue, Jan 15  Before the Bell  0.68

-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

ABT    Abbott Laboratories    Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.52
AMD    Advanced Micro Devices Wed, Jan 16  After the Bell  -0.19
ATI    Allegheny Technologies Wed, Jan 16  Before the Bell  0.02
APH    Amphenol               Wed, Jan 16  Before the Bell  0.43
AMR    AMR                    Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----   -4.83
SLOT   Anchor Gaming          Wed, Jan 16  After the Bell   1.19
AAPL   Apple Computer         Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.11
CBCF   Citizens Banking       Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.56
CYN    City National          Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.76
CMA    Comerica               Wed, Jan 16  Before the Bell  1.16
CBSH   Commerce Bancshares    Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.68
CNXT   Conexant Systems       Wed, Jan 16  After the Bell  -0.44
CAL    Continental Airlines   Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----   -4.67
DORL   Doral Financial        Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.79
DUK    Duke Energy            Wed, Jan 16  After the Bell   0.48
EXTR   Extreme Networks       Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.01
FAST   Fastenal               Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.34
FTN    First Tennessee Nat.   Wed, Jan 16  Before the Bell  0.64
FVB    First Virginia Banks   Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.80
DNA    Genentech              Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.20
GM     General Motors         Wed, Jan 16  During the Market0.50
HRS    Harris                 Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.28
HIB    Hibernia Corporation   Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.35
IIVI   II-VI                  Wed, Jan 16  After the Bell   0.14
INKT   Inktomi                Wed, Jan 16  After the Bell  -0.11
JPM    J.P. Morgan Chase & Co Wed, Jan 16  Before the Bell  0.35
KEY    KeyCorp                Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----   -0.41
KMI    Kinder Morgan          Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.55
KMP    Kinder Morg Enrgy Ptnr Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.39
MACR   Macromedia             Wed, Jan 16  After the Bell  -0.15
MCAF   McAfee.com             Wed, Jan 16  After the Bell   0.05
MXT    Metris Companies       Wed, Jan 16  Before the Bell  0.70
NMTC   Numerical Technologies Wed, Jan 16  After the Bell   0.07
PH     Parker Hannifin        Wed, Jan 16  Before the Bell  0.33
PFGI   Provident Finan Grp    Wed, Jan 16  Before the Bell  0.44
SOTR   SouthTrust             Wed, Jan 16  Before the Bell  0.42
SYMC   Symantec               Wed, Jan 16  After the Bell   0.64
SNV    Synovus Financial      Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.28
SYY    Sysco                  Wed, Jan 16  Before the Bell  0.23
TCB    TCF Financial          Wed, Jan 16  Before the Bell  0.71
TTEK   Tetra Tech             Wed, Jan 16  After the Bell   0.21
TVLY   Travelocity.com        Wed, Jan 16  After the Bell   0.10
VLY    Valley National Banc   Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.46
YHOO   Yahoo!                 Wed, Jan 16  -----N/A-----    0.01

------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

ANDW   Andrew Corporation     Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.09
ARM    ArvinMeritor Inc.      Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.24
ASML   ASM Lithography Hldg   Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell -0.13
ADP    Automatic Data Proc    Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.41
BXS    BancorpSouth           Thu, Jan 17  After the Bell   0.30
BK     Bank of New York       Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.47
BCC    Boise Cascade          Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell -0.06
BRE    BRE Properties         Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.69
BRO    Brown & Brown          Thu, Jan 17  After the Bell   0.20
ELY    Callaway Golf          Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----   -0.02
POS    Catalina Marketing     Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.30
C      Citigroup              Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.73
CFBX   Community First Bank   Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.46
ED     Consolidated Edison    Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.57
DPH    Delphi Automotive Sys  Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.10
DAL    Delta Air Lines        Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell -3.83
ETH    Ethan Allen Interiors  Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.51
FMBI   First Midwest Bancorp  Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.43
F      Ford Motor Company     Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell -0.50
FCX    Freeport-McMoRan Co/GldThu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----   -0.01
GNSS   Genesis Microchip      Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.33
GDW    Golden West Financial  Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    1.32
GPT    GreenPoint Financial   Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  1.15
HDI    Harley-Davidson        Thu, Jan 17  After the Bell   0.37
HU     Hudson United Bancorp  Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.54
HBAN   Huntington Bancshares  Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.29
IBM    Inter Bus Machines     Thu, Jan 17  After the Bell   1.32
ITG    Investment Tech Group  Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.42
JEC    Jacobs Engineering     Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.87
MI     Marshall & Ilsley      Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.97
MSFT   Microsoft              Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.45
NCF    Nat Comm Fin Corp      Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.31
NETA   Network Associates     Thu, Jan 17  After the Bell   0.08
NT     Nortel Networks        Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----   -0.17
NFB    North Fork Bancorp     Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.54
NWAC   Northwest Airlines     Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----   -3.06
PBCT   People`s Bank          Thu, Jan 17  After the Bell   0.20
PLXS   Plexus                 Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.01
PPG    PPG Industries         Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.44
RSLN   Roslyn Bancorp         Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.35
TSG    Sabre Holdings Corp    Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.02
SFA    Scientific-Atlanta     Thu, Jan 17  After the Bell   0.20
S      Sears Roebuck          Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  1.90
SIVB   Silicon Valley Banc    Thu, Jan 17  After the Bell   0.33
STU    Student Loan           Thu, Jan 17  After the Bell    N/A
SU     Suncor Energy          Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----     N/A
TE     TECO Energy            Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.50
UPC    Union Planters         Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.83
UB     UnionBanCal            Thu, Jan 17  After the Bell   0.77
UIS    Unisys                 Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.11
UTX    United Technologies    Thu, Jan 17  Before the Bell  0.67
WTNY   Whitney Holding        Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.72
WLL    Willamette Industries  Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.41
WL     Wilmington Trust       Thu, Jan 17  -----N/A-----    0.95
XLNX   Xilinx                 Thu, Jan 17  After the Bell   0.04

------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

FPL    FPL Group              Fri, Jan 18  Before the Bell  0.68
JCI    Johnson Controls       Fri, Jan 18  Before the Bell  1.04
WIT    Wipro Limited          Fri, Jan 18  -----N/A-----    0.22


  -------------------------------
  Upcoming Stock Splits This Week
  -------------------------------

Upcoming Stock Splits This Week...

Symbol  Company Name         Splits  Payable    Executable
  
VAR     Varian Medical        2:1     01/15      01/16
CPRT    Copart                3:2     01/15      01/22
FCN     FTI Consulting        3:2     01/16      01/17
LIZ     Liz Claiborne         2:1     01/16      01/17
CHS     Chicos FAS Inc        3:2     01/18      01/21
CVBF    CVB Financial         5:4     01/18      01/21


  --------------------------
  Economic Reports This Week
  --------------------------

Earnings season will come into full bloom on Tuesday with the
likes of Intel for the chip sector and Microsoft on Thursday
for the software sector.  There are hundreds of other big name
companies that will be reporting but analysts will still be
watching the retail sales numbers on Tuesday and the CPI
report on Wednesday.


Monday, 01/14/02
----------------
None


Tuesday, 01/15/02
-----------------
Retail Sales           Dec  Forecast:  -1.1%  Previous:   -3.7%
Retail Sales ex-auto   Dec  Forecast:   0.0%  Previous:   -0.5%


Wednesday, 01/16/02
-------------------
CPI                    Dec  Forecast:   0.1%  Previous:    0.0%
Core CPI               Dec  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:    0.4%
Business Inventories   Nov  Forecast:  -0.5%  Previous:   -1.6%
Industrial Production  Dec  Forecast:   0.0%  Previous:   -0.3%
Capacity Utilization   Dec  Forecast:  74.6%  Previous:   74.7%
Fed’s Beige Book


Thursday, 01/17/02
------------------
Initial Claims       01/12  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:    395K
Housing Starts         Dec  Forecast: 1.610M  Previous:  1.645M
Building Permits       Dec  Forecast: 1.570M  Previous:  1.564M
Philadelphia Fed       Jan  Forecast:    0.0  Previous:   -12.6


Friday, 01/18/02
----------------
Trade Balance          Nov  Forecast:-$28.5B  Previous: -$29.4B
Mich Sentiment-Prel.   Jan  Forecast:   89.6  Previous:    88.8




==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MTG     Mgic Investments Corp      64.48     +2.28
URS     Urs Corp                   29.86     +1.46

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CRUS    Cirrus Logic Inc           19.15     +1.12
EPNY    E.Piphany Inc              10.97     +1.24
GERN    Geron Corp                 10.15     +1.14

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

LIN     Linens 'n Things Inc       27.50     +1.63
CYMI    Cymer Inc                  34.79     +2.67
IGEN    Igen Intl. Inc             42.15     +4.06
CTIC    Cell Therapeutics Inc      24.54     +1.58
PQE     Proquest Company           38.31     +1.30
CMNT    Computer Network Tech      23.75     +2.10
MIMS    Mim Corp                   20.63     +1.42

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TYC     Tyco Intl. Ltd             50.25     -4.67
LOW     Lowe's Companies           42.03     -1.15
EMR     Emerson Electric Co        55.00     -1.08
GD      General Dynamics Corp      77.40     -1.87
FDX     Fedex Corp                 50.41     -2.59
JCI     Johnson Controls Inc       75.00     -3.19

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MCD     McDonalds Corp             26.34     -0.47
AMAT    Applied Materials Inc      45.01     -0.98
TXT     Textron Inc                41.25     -2.17
ARW     Arrow Electronics Inc      29.95     -1.40
FHR     Fairmont Hotels            23.86     -0.69



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of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




DISCLAIMER

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