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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 01/14/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 01-14-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Valuations leave little room for error
Market Sentiment: "Show me the money".
Play-of-the-Day:  Looking For A Dip
Watch List:       DSL, ACRT, EYE, EMLX, RCII

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      01-14-2002          High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9891.42 - 96.11  9985.38  9889.27 1.26 bln   1250/1904
NASDAQ   1990.74 - 31.72  2018.42  1979.94 1.79 bln   1215/2456
S&P 100   580.86 -  3.34   584.55   580.58   Totals   2465/4360
S&P 500  1138.41 -  7.19  1145.60  1138.15             
RUS 2000  483.01 -  6.93   489.94   482.28
DJ TRANS 2662.43 - 44.34  2705.21  2650.55
VIX        25.02 +  1.04    25.39    24.49 
VXN        49.51 +  1.14    51.44    48.94
TRIN        1.79 
Put/Call    0.66
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Valuations leave little room for error

Earning's season kicks in this week and the broader market rally 
has many stocks at valuation levels, which many feel gives little 
room for error.  Not only will many market participants be 
looking at recent quarterly results, but as is often the case, 
what the company says about the future will most likely drive 
near-term price action.

Today's broader market stock action was to the downside after 
Merrill Lynch recommended an asset allocation shift away from 
stocks and toward bonds.  Today's call from Merrill sure looks 
like it was made more than a couple of days ago as recent action 
in the bond market sure depicted a move toward bonds as YIELD's 
fell rather sharply.  Today's call from Merrill seemed to have 
more of an impact on stocks than it did bonds.  By session's end, 
stocks were broadly lower with the Dow Industrials closing down 
96 points at 9,891, the S&P 500 fell 7 points to 1,138 and the 
NASDAQ Composite dropped 31 points at 1,990.

Treasuries saw the bulk of the buying action take place in the 
shorter-term maturities as the 13-week YIELD ($IRX.X) dropped to 
a new 52-week low of 1.54%.  Many banks money market and shorter-
term savings account interest rates are benchmarked to the 13-
week YIELD and action here indicates that some money is moving to 
the sidelines in the short-end.  Not necessarily looking for any 
type of return on capital, but simply looking for some near-term 
safety.  As we step out in maturity, we actually saw some 
fractional selling.  By session's end, the 5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) 
actually rose to 4.082%, the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) rose to 
4.868% and the 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) rose 5.377%.  Once again, 
the action taking place in the bond market sure hints that the 
market understands there will most likely be some near-term bumps 
on the road to economic recovery (buying of shorter-term 
Treasuries), but the longer-term is shaping up (not seeing as 
aggressive of buying in longer-term at this point).

Earnings on the horizon

One thing I like to do is monitor some of the market's reactions 
to stocks that are reporting earnings right now.  After the close 
of trading tonight, online broker E*Trade (NYSE:ET) $12.20 (-
0.89) reported earnings of $0.07 a shares, which was well above 
estimates of $0.04 a share.  In after-hours trading, we're seeing 
a bit of a muted response, but the stock is trading higher by 50-
cents at $12.70.

E*Trade Group Chart - Daily Interval




It's not just earnings that grew in the latest quarter for the 
online broker E*Trade (ET).  Top-line growth was there too as 
revenues came in at $345.4 million versus estimates of $324.8 
million.  The company followed with future bullish guidance for 
fiscal year 2002, saying earnings should grow to the $0.45-$0.55 
per share range, well ahead of estimates of $0.38 per share.  As 
of December 10th, shares of E*Trade were rather heavily shorted 
with roughly 27.4 million shares shorted.  That equates to a 
short-ratio of roughly 10.7 days to cover, as average daily 
volume is 2.65 million shares.  Support should be firming near 
$10.  The longer-term bullish price objective from our point and 
figure chart is bullish to $29.25.  If E*Trade (ET) can continue 
this recent earnings and revenue growth (year ago earnings were 
$0.02 a share), the stock may indeed fetch a loftier multiple.

One earning's multiplier often used by fundamental analysts is to 
take earning growth rates (in the case of E*TRADE) 250% quarter-
over quarter ($0.07 current vs. year ago $0.02) and multiply be 
quarterly earnings.  This would give us a "fair value" of roughly 
$17.50 (250% time $0.07).  For the year just ended 2001 
(including today's results), E*Trade reported annual earning of 
$0.12.  Considering the company's guidance for $0.45 (lower end 
of guidance), this would represent roughly 275% growth and "fair 
value" might have the stock at $12.37 on year-over-year growth 
rates.  Today's close is pretty close to this valuation model of 
fundamental analysis.

Tomorrow's earnings

On a quick count, I see approximately 30 companies scheduled to 
report earnings tomorrow.  List of earnings are under the "Market 
Watch" section of the site. PLEASE NOTE, these are not ALL the
companies announcing tomorrow or this week, just many of the
largest corporations.

http://www.PremierInvestor.net/indexes/marketwatch.asp

Before the opening bell we'll get ....

Financial stocks may be impacted on earnings from banking stocks 
AmSouth (NYSE:ASO), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and broker Charles 
Schwab (NYSE:SCH).  Both ASO and WFC are expected to show modest 
gains year-over-year on the earnings front, while Charles Schwab 
is expected to earn $0.08 a share, 3-cents less than year-ago 
earnings of $0.11.

This year's pharmaceutical standout, Forest Labs (NYSE:FRX) is 
slated to report earning's before the opening of trading of $0.44 
cents a share.  While earning's are important, drug stocks move 
on what they have slated in their pipeline.  Since shares of FRX 
have bucked the broader Drug Index (DRG.X) index, look for any 
news out of Forest Labs to be stock specific and not necessarily 
impact the sector.  The point and figure chart currently carries 
a longer-term bullish vertical count of $110, and first sign of 
trouble would be a trade at $77.

Then during trading ....

Two more financial-related stocks report as Mellon Bank 
(NYSE:MEL) is slated to report earnings of $0.38, well below 
year-ago earnings of $0.52.  US Bancorp (NYSE:USB) is also 
looking for relatively flat yea-over-year earnings of $0.40 vs. 
year-ago $0.41.

Then after the close ....

Technology investors are going to get a strong dose of earnings 
that could set the stage for Wednesday's action.  DoubleClick 
(DCLK), Handspring (HAND), Intel (INTC), Juniper (JNPR), Linear 
Tech (LLTC), MIPS Tech (MIPS), RF Micro Device (RFMD) to name a 
few are scheduled to report.  Most are expected to report 
earnings well below year-ago-levels, but what they say about the 
future will most likely drive stock price action on Wednesday.

Internet retailer eBay (EBAY) is also scheduled to report 
earnings tomorrow afternoon.  This is a stock bears love to hate, 
but have had a tough time getting the stock to crater.  In early 
December, shares of EBAY traded a new 52-week high of $72.74, but 
were not able to sustain that move.  Today's 1.1% decline to 
$63.16 came after some analysts told investors to take some 
profits ahead of tomorrow's earnings.  U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray 
analyst Safa Rashtchy is predicting that eBay investors who have 
grown accustomed to robust double digit growth could be spooked 
by even a modest downturn.  "At some point, it is pretty obvious 
that we will see some kind of disappointment," said Rashtchy.

eBay Chart - $1 box




Shares of eBay still trade above their bullish support trend, so 
bearish traders need to be careful if short or looking to short 
the stock ahead of earning's tomorrow afternoon.  We do see 
similar technicals presenting themselves like that found back in 
August (red 8) when eBay traded down to bullish support and a 
downward trending channel line.  Until the bullish support rend 
is violated and subsequent sell signal given, I consider this 
stock bullish.  I've drawn some "bearish channels" where a trader 
may expect this stock to channel going forward.  I do feel the 
break below the bearish channel back in September was due to the 
"market event" of the terrorist attacks.  As you can see, once 
the stock broke back above the "bearish channel" it began finding 
support at that channel on the pullback.  Eventually, demand took 
control of the stock, driving price to a new 52-week high.  
Current risk/reward is too tough to figure out at this point, so 
I'm staying on the sidelines.  Current bearish count is $57 and 
any shorting should be followed with a stop at $70.

Most likely, we've seen some profit taking come out of these 
names in recent sessions as investors book some handsome gains 
ahead of what could be a couple of volatile trading sessions.  
Many of these stocks have rallied well off their September lows 
and the MARKET response to earnings will most likely give us some 
heads up on how other stocks will respond in coming weeks.

Jeff Bailey
Premier Investor


================
Market Sentiment
================

"Show me the money".
by Russ Moore

Investors snubbed the official launch of "earnings season", 
choosing instead, to wait and see what corporate America had to 
say before stepping on to the playing field.

The major indices were under pressure from the get-go thanks to a 
bearish shift by Merrill Lynch. Merrill’s chief U.S. strategist, 
Richard Bernstein, lowered his equity portion from 60 to 50 
percent in a model portfolio. Bonds moved from 20 to 30 percent 
while cash remained the same at 20 percent. Mr. Bernstein cited 
"extreme" valuations as the primary reason for the shift.

The DOW ended the session with a loss of -1.0 percent while the 
NASDAQ dropped -1.6 percent and the NDX -1.9 percent. Volume was 
on the light side with 1.25 billion shares trading on the NYSE 
and 1.78 billion on the NASDAQ. Losers came out on top by a 19/12 
margin on the big board and 25/12 on the tech index.

Utilities and gold were the only sectors in positive territory. 
Airline, biotech and oil service were the weakest areas on the 
broader markets while hardware, Internet and networkers took the 
biggest hits on the tech side.

Investor sentiment is going to be tested severely over the coming 
weeks. Earnings, for the most part, will probably meet or exceed 
estimates but so what, I can high-jump over a 1-foot bar too. No, 
it’s not going to be earnings that put bullish sentiment to the 
test, it will be the three most important things in the current 
market environment: Guidance, Guidance, and Guidance.

Words such as "limited", "cloudy", and "guarded", will simply not 
cut it for investors this time around. Investors are looking for 
a significant increase in visibility i.e. something beyond next 
week, failure to do so will probably see the southbound train 
picking up steam.


Monday 01/14 close: 25.02


VXN
Monday 01/14 close: 49.51


30-yr Bonds
Monday 01/14 close: 5.38


Total Put/Call Ratio: .88


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .77


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.66


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 39.96

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/126,400
Maximum puts : 40/113,234

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 40
 20 DMA 40
 50 DMA 39
200 DMA 40

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 580.86

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 590/6,094
Maximum puts : 580/8,603

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  589
 20 DMA  587
 50 DMA  584
200 DMA  599

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1138.41

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/39,302
Maximum puts : 1150/36,556
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1156
 20 DMA 1150
 50 DMA 1140
200 DMA 1167

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,891.42

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/13,814
Maximum Puts   100/29,373

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA 10,091
 20 DMA 10,054
 50 DMA  9,892
200 DMA 10,104

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 541.75

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 660/354
Maximum Puts:  540/979

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 562
 20 DMA 573
 50 DMA 580
200 DMA 542

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 564.41

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 440/ 847
Maximum Puts:  470/2,084

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 570
 20 DMA 552
 50 DMA 538
200 DMA 554

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 379.51

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/ 525
Maximum Puts:  360/1035

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 378
 20 DMA 380
 50 DMA 388
200 DMA 390

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/11. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/25/01     412,581   471,239   (58,658)   (9.7%)
01/01/02     338,288   407,107   (68,729)   17.1% 
01/08/02     333,742   398,283   (64,541)   (6.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/05/01       152,521    79,444    73,077    (6.1%)
01/01/02       127,419    55,576    71,843    (1.6%)
01/08/02       130,335    60,780    69,555    (3.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/25/01      55,250    47,476     7,774   
01/01/02      29,801    37,497    (7,696)
01/08/02      30,786    37,457    (6,671)    (13.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/25/01       15,810    25,687   (9,877)
01/01/02       10,649     5,913    4,736   
01/08/02       10,073     6,404    3,669    (22.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
12/25/01      15,492     7,335    8,157       .6%
01/01/02      15,820     7,553    8,267      1.3%
01/08/02      15,921     7,981    7,940     (3.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
12/25/01       4,293     9,086    (4,793)     15.4%
01/01/02       3,368     8,668    (5,300)     10.6%
01/08/02       4,380     9,188    (4,808)     (9.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +69,555     +71,843        -64,541     -68,729

Total Open
Interest %       (+36.39%)  (+39.26%)      (-8.82%)   (-9.22%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -4,808     -5,300          +7,940    8,267
Total Open
interest %       (-35.44%)    (-44.03%)      (+33.22%)  (+35.37)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +3,669      +4,736         -6,671    -7,696

Total Open
Interest %        (+22.27%)   (+28.60%)     (-9.78%) (-11.44%)
                 net-short   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.No significant changes this week as Commercials continue 
to sit net-short on the SPX with little change over last week’s 
numbers.

Gold: Despite a red-hot week for the gold market, Commercial 
players were busy adding to their net-short positions. This may 
be an early signal that the bullish run is coming to an end. 

12/11 13,626 contracts net-long
12/18 15,198 contracts net-short
12/25 11,976 contracts net-short
01/01 14,555 contracts net-short
01/08 24,042 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 01/08 by the CFTC.



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

Trigon Healthcare - TGH - close: 71.00 change: -0.42 stop: 68.49

Company Description:
Trigon is Virginia's largest managed health care company, 
providing a broad range of health, wellness and health care 
financing programs and services to 2 million members. (source: 
company press release)

- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: January 11th, 2002 -

Why We Like It:
One group that seems unfazed by the recent market weakness are 
healthcare stocks.  Historically, the drug and healthcare sectors 
are industries that attract investor money during times of 
weakness or worry as they tend to have pretty steady earnings.  
This doesn't always happen at every bearish market move but it is 
common enough that many investors remember its occurrence. This 
is also another relative strength play as TGH has really been out 
performing the market.  Shares had recently been consolidating 
under long-time resistance at $70 and Wednesday of this week lead 
the breakout over it.  The technical upside breakout was also 
confirmed on the point-and-figure chart so the stock doesn't have 
any near-term overhead resistance.  Dips to $70 should be buyable 
but we're going to play with a relatively tight stop of less than 
five percent at $68.49.  TGH has earnings in early February.

- Play of the Day comments, Monday, Jan. 14th, 2002 -

With the markets in retreat the healthcare sector "should" 
continue to stand out for bullish traders.  We like TGH's recent 
strength these last few days and believe a dip to $70 may be an 
entry point.  Confirm the bounce.

Picked on January 11th at $71.42 
Change since picked:       -0.42
Earnings Date           02/08/02 (unconfirmed)






==========
Watch List
==========

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

-----------

Downey Financial Corp - DSL - close: 44.30 change: +0.83

WHAT TO WATCH: This bank stock has produced an incredible run up 
for traders.  Last week the stock met with resistance at its 200-
dma near $44 and today's move pushed shares through it.  Very 
short-term traders may want to watch it for potential moves in 
the next couple of days but the rest of us, who move a bit 
slower, should wait for the earnings report on Thursday.  Unless 
earnings are extremely good, the stock could see a sell-the-news 
sort of effect as investors take profits from the two-month run 
up.  




---

Actrade Financial Tech. - ACRT - close: 33.99 change: +1.75

WHAT TO WATCH: Another winner today, despite the down markets, 
was ACRT.  Shares had been battling with strong resistance at 
$32.50 and $33 during the last several weeks and today's 5.4% 
move shot through it.  The close today looks very bullish for the 
short-term trend.  Bullish investors may want to keep an eye on 
it.  The company is expected to announce earnings on Jan. 24th.




---

Visx Inc - EYE - close: 14.35 change: +1.18

WHAT TO WATCH: I found it pretty interesting this morning to hear 
about the VISX when we had just been looking at it over the 
weekend.  The stock had been languishing between $12.50 and 
$14.00 for weeks.  Today's upgrade to a "buy" from Bank of 
America helped power the stock through resistance on volume of 1 
million shares.  Average volume is only 200K.  If the stock 
confirms the new move EYE may be able to trade up to its 200-dma 
near $16.  Yet look for resistance at $15, or the lows from July.  
A dip back to $14 might be an entry point if you have a good 
stop.




---

Emulex Corp - EMLX - close: 42.60 change: -3.00

WHAT TO WATCH: Could it be trouble for the rebound darling of 
investors?  EMLX has had one of the strongest trends in the 
market from its Sept/October lows.  The move from $9 to north of 
$45 is just screaming for a big pull back but each time shares 
start to consolidate they trade sideways as demand eats up 
supply.  It may be that demand is slowing down or supply just 
can't help taking some profits off the table.  Traders should 
keep an eye on it because shares rest near its 15-dma which has 
been bullish support for the last few weeks.  A move down from 
here could be the beginning of a short-term sell-off.  However, 
be very careful if you are bearish.  It has obviously been a 
painful move up for shorts who haven't been willing to cover or 
covered too late.  The company just announced that earnings would 
be Jan. 22nd, 2002 after the market's close.  Who's betting that 
EMLX might see a sell-the-news after they announce?




---

Rent-A-Center Inc. - RCII - close: 30.99 change: -1.81

WHAT TO WATCH: This is an interesting development.  Shares of the 
stock have produced a nice rebound from the fall lows but the 
stock appears to have run out of steam in late December near the 
$34 area.  The 200-dma is overhead and starting to rollover.  The 
last couple of weeks have shown RCII to slowly drift lower.  
Suddenly, today, the stock sees a lot of selling pressure, loses 
5.5% and closes just above its 50-dma.  Then after the bell, RCII 
announces same store sales were up 9.7% and they expect to beat 
current estimates by a wide margin.  Do investors buy the news 
and send shares rallying higher?  Or do they sell it knowing 
there isn't any reason left, now that the news is out, to wait 
for earnings on Feb. 11th, 2002?  There are a few ways to play 
it.  Active bulls could try and trade any rally from here to $35, 
its 200-dma.  Bears could try and short a failed rally at $35 or 
a breakdown under $30.  Longer-term bulls can wait for the stock 
to conquer its 200-dma.







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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Monday 01-14-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/8128_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

NetBulls (Tech Stocks) 
  Bearish Play Updates: NXTL

StockBottom (Non-Tech)
  Closed Bullish Plays: BGP, NCOG

High Risk/High Reward
  Closed Bullish Plays: ADCT
  

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

===================
NB Play Updates
===================

  -------------------
  Bearish Play Update
  -------------------

Nextel Comm. - NXTL - close: 8.36 change: -1.64 stop: 9.41

Ouch!  We knew that the outlook for wireless stocks was 
disappointing but Lehman Brothers has joined Merrill Lynch's Jan. 
8th announcement with a blanket downgrade of the whole sector.  
Lehman actually yanked the carpet out from under NXTL with a 
downgrade from "market perform" to the rarely seen "sell".  To 
pour salt on the wound, Lehman lowered their price target on NXTL 
from $14 to $4.  We're certainly not complaining about the news 
or the reaction but the stock opened at $9.00 - a far cry from 
our expected entry at $9.79.  This puts our entry price at $9.00, 
which isn't so bad if NXTL actually drops to $4.00.  Based on the 
news and the market's reaction we're going to adjust our stop and 
our target exit price.  Our new stop will be $9.41, just a few 
cents above today's high.  Our new exit, whereas if the stock 
trades there we'll close the play for a profit, will be $7.50.

Picked on January 14th at $ 9.00 
Change since picked:       +0.64
Earnings Date           01/28/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Borders Group Inc - BGP - cls: 21.62 chg: +0.60 stop: 20.99

Sometimes it pays to be play it "safe" and other times, well, you 
just have to grin and say next time.  An early morning dip to 
$20.87 in BGP stopped us out at $20.99, which closes the play 
with a +4.6% move.  Traders who were a bit more aggressive with 
their stops should be encouraged by the 2.85% gain today in BGP 
but beware possible resistance at $22.  Hopefully, the positive 
announcement by online book sales rival Books-A-Million (BAMM) 
after the close today might spur more positive reactions for BGP.  
Fortunately, for investors, BGP is a bricks and mortar chain 
(both its Borders and its Waldensbooks line) with a Borders.com 
online presence in partnership with Amazon.com.  

Picked on December 27th at $20.05 
Change since picked:        +0.94 
Earnings Date            01/31/02 (confirmed)




---

NCO Group, Inc. - NCOG - cls: 23.05 change: -1.20 stop: 23.75 

Traders hit the sell button as both the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 
fell to the bear's claw today.  Shares of NCOG joined the crowd 
and slipped almost 5% to close exactly on its 200-dma.  If the 
stock loses the $22 level, active traders might want to try and 
short it to $20 (near its 50-dma) for a quick move.  Otherwise, 
bullish investors can step back and wait for a new entry point to 
emerge.  Unfortunately, recent action in the stock price looks 
pretty negative.  We were stopped out at $23.75 for a 42-cent 
loss.    

Picked on January 3rd at $24.17 
Change since picked:      -0.42
Earnings Date          11/06/01 (confirmed)






=================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===================
HR Closed Plays
===================

  -------------------
  Closed Bullish Play
  -------------------

ADC Telecommunications - ADCT - cls: 5.07 chg: -0.08 stop: 5.06

Still no surprises here with ADCT.  We had actually expected to 
stop out on Friday.  More negative reactions from the telecom 
sector, like our new short NXTL (-16%) for example, had traders 
still worried about the group.  Believe it or not, bulls 
shouldn't turn their backs too long on ADCT.  The intraday bounce 
today may be a sign of strength.  We're not willing to go long 
again but more aggressive traders may want to keep tabs on it.  
Don't be surprised if ADCT trades to $4.50 (more bearish) or 
$4.75 (still keeping the bullish trend of higher lows alive).  
We close the play at breakeven.

Picked on January 3rd at $ 5.06
Change since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date          02/19/02 (confirmed)






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DSL     Downey Financial Corp      44.30     +0.83
PP      Prentiss Properties        28.80     +0.87
NHP     Nationwide Health          19.85     +0.70
ACRT    Actrade Financial Tech.    33.99     +1.75

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CRWN    Crown Media Holdings       12.67     +1.62
EYE     Visx Inc                   14.35     +1.18
FALC    Falconstor Software        11.97     +1.48
HOLX    Hologic Inc                13.29     +1.13
OSIS    Osi Systems Inc            19.84     +2.94

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

HCA     HCA Inc                    41.50     +1.23
BOBJ    Business Objects           39.38     +1.17
LPNT    Lifepoint Hospitals        31.73     +1.31
JEF     Jefferies Group Inc        45.00     +1.80
AXL     American Axle & Mfg        21.50     +1.07
JDAS    JDA Software Group         26.60     +1.35

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

NOK     Nokia Corp                 21.49     -1.32
IBM     Intl. Business Machines   118.05     -2.26
WM      Washington Mutual Inc      33.16     -1.48
UTX     United Technologies Corp   62.24     -1.60
FTE     France Telecom             37.02     -1.63
DOW     Dow Chemical               27.05     -3.20

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MER	Merrill Lynch                55.59     -1.65
AXP	American Express             36.25     -1.17
BRCD	Brocade Communications       36.60     -2.67
SPW	Spx Corp                    139.68     -1.62



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