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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 01/22/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 01-22-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      "Strong signal" recession may soon be over.
Market Sentiment: Where’s Johnny Nash when you need him?.
Play-of-the-Day:  Green on a Red Day.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       1-22-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9713.80 - 58.05  9842.84  9696.57  1.3 bln   1374/1758
NASDAQ   1882.53 - 47.81  1947.41  1882.14  1.8 bln   1333/2306
S&P 100   570.63 -  4.61   579.22   569.68   Totals   2707/4054
S&P 500  1119.31 -  8.27  1135.26  1117.91
RUS 2000  469.43 -  4.94   476.96   469.42
DJ TRANS 2659.70 -  7.55  2684.04  2652.40
VIX        25.10 +  0.76    25.24    23.97
VXN        50.37 +  1.48    50.76    49.31
TRIN        1.33
Put/Call Ratio       .65
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

"Strong signal" recession may soon be over

Despite today's tech drubbing by Wall Street that found sellers 
in many technology stocks, today's economic number has the index 
of leading economic indicators rising 1.2% in December, with 10 
of the 12 indicators showing gains.  The Conference Board said, 
"The economy, barring any unexpected shock, is gather momentum."

December's 1.2% gain is the strongest increase in the index since 
February 1996.  The biggest contributors were the decline in 
initial jobless claims, the wide interest-rate spreads and the 
growing money supply.  The only negatives found in the Conference 
Board's report were continued weakness in new orders for capital 
goods and consumer goods.  Economists continue to advise caution 
toward the scenario of a "v-bottom" type recovery as the economic 
measurements tell the Conference Board very little about the 
strength of the recovery.

"Easy money and falling energy prices are providing essential 
boost to the economy," said Conference Board economist Ken 
Goldstein.  "Steep retail discounting also stimulated demand" he 
said.

In the past four months, only 4 of the 10 indicators have risen 
during that time -- an indication of the "dual personality" of 
the recession, with financial indicators like money supply and 
stock prices showing more improvement than "real" economic 
indicators like factory orders.  This type of "counting of the 
cards" has many stock traders feeling that stocks may have moved 
too far too fast and gotten ahead of themselves.

S&P 500 now at "bull correction"

Almost as if writing a script that is read time and time again, 
the S&P 500 Bullish Percent ($BPSPX) from www.stockcharts.com has 
reversed into a column of O's and now reads "bull correction," 
and is following the NASDAQ-100 Bullish Percent ($BPNDX) in "bear 
confirmed" lower.  The bull's defensive team had better be on the 
field as the bear's are marching down the football field and 
getting within field goal range.  That's football terminology, 
but as it relates to market terminology, the MARKET is 
efficiently removing risk as stocks begin giving sell signals on 
their supply/demand charts.  

As of tonight close, only 40% of the 100 stocks that comprise the 
NASDAQ-100 currently show a buy signal on their point and figure 
charts, while 61.4% (307 out of 500) of the stocks in the S&P 500 
Index (SPX.X) currently show a buy signal on their point and 
figure chart.

S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) - 2% box




Equity bulls and bears have come to "love" the bullish percent as 
it seems to do such a good, yet simple, job of explaining market 
risk.  In September (just before the red A) the bullish percent 
reached a level not seen since September 1998 (during the Asian 
flue and Russian debt crisis).  The recent rally in the S&P 500 
bullish percent came very close to the 70% level, which is 
considered "overbought" and now the MARKET is beginning to digest 
its excesses and profit taking is beginning to pick up.  I think 
Tom Dorsey, author of "Point and Figure Charting" sums it up when 
he says "The bull correction phase is telling us that the market 
leaders will likely drop in price due to profit taking."

Microsoft and Applied Materials giving sell signals

"The bull correction phase is telling us that the market leaders 
will likely drop in price due to profit taking."  One might 
consider Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) a leader in the software group 
and Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) a leader in the semiconductor 
equipment sector.  Today, both of these stocks fell just enough 
to generate "sell signals" on their point and figure charts, and 
effectively take away at least two stocks that had previously 
generated "buy signals" and contributed positively to the bullish 
percent indicators.

One subscriber was perhaps right on the money when he said "It 
probably doesn't matter what kind of earnings this semiconductor 
stock has tonight, as it's a tech stock and the market just wants 
to sell technology."  Well, that's kind of harsh, but what the 
subscriber may really have been saying is "the ODDS of a bullish 
reaction to the reported earnings may be stymied due to the stock 
being computer/semiconductor/technology related.

Microsoft Chart - $1 box




Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is a great stock for traders and 
investors to understand and at least monitor.  The stock is a 
component of the Dow Industrials, NASDAQ-Composite, S&P 500 and 
NASDAQ-100.  It's no "coincidence" that shares of MSFT found 
their bottom in late September (after red 9) and began reversing 
higher and giving a "buy signal" in early October (red A), just 
when the S&P 500 bullish % ($BPSPX) reversed course higher during 
that same time period.  Its not a coincidence that MSFT gave a 
sell signal today at $65, just when the S&P 500 bullish percent 
reversed lower either.  Look for MSFT to offer some short-term 
bullish rallies to the $67 level as I don't think this one will 
simply slice through longer-term bullish support trend.  If we 
eventually see a NASDAQ-100 bullish percent fall below the 30% 
level, coupled with an S&P 500 bullish percent near the 50% 
level, look for a bullish trade in "Mr. Softy" near $59.

I would not be an "aggressive" short in Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).  
I feel the current action is MARKET related and simply a good 
round of profit taking.  A future bull wants to take advantage of 
the selling and let it run its course.  A bear is simply trying 
to take advantage of some "late bulls" that perhaps ignored the 
MARKET risk as indicated by the bullish percent charts and tried 
squeezing another $1 or $2 to their bullish target of $72.  
Today's trade at $65 now has that one X-box at $70 looking like a 
"bull trap" where momentum players got caught and if still stuck, 
will gladly sell a rally back near $67-$68.

It's not looking like a bear raid

Fundamentalists that believe in economic numbers and earnings may 
be wondering just what the heck is going on.  Finally they're 
getting some bullish undertones in the economic numbers, and the 
plethora of downside earnings surprises are starting to abate.  

Well, we would expect that analysts have undercut earnings so 
much, that many companies can't help but beat some of the slashed 
estimates.  After all, the analysts had many technology company's 
earnings ballooning to the upside, are the same ones running the 
numbers today, so its only fair that they have now undercut the 
earnings estimates to the downside.

If we take Microsoft (MSFT) as an example, we'd see that the 
stock was trading $60 at this time last year.  Earnings were 
right inline in the year-ago period and revenues grew a modest 
7.7%.  In the latest quarterly earnings, the bottom-line number 
was inline with estimates and revenues have grown 18.2% versus 
the year ago period.  There's still the "anti-trust" concerns 
that keep showing up, and I don't think this is a whole lot 
different than what has been the case for a couple of years.

I think Microsoft (MSFT) is a great bellwether for technology and 
especially the software sector, but I don't think an economic 
bear can hang his/her hat on the stock.  Yes, people will buy 
more PC's that have Microsoft software on them, but don't expect 
this one to see the lows found in September.

The Treasury market has been holding tough.  Even though stocks 
got punished again today, we're not seeing a rush of capital back 
into the Treasury bond market.  As simple as it may sound, 
current stock action is what we were warning about in December 
and January when the NASDAQ-100 bullish percent was above the 70% 
level.  Right now, the MARKET is simple digesting its excesses 
from the nice run off the bottom.  The money hasn't rushed to the 
bond market so I think bearish traders in tech stocks still need 
to be trading for profits.

This evening's earnings

As I look over the 60-some earnings from tonight, I don't see any 
major surprises that could drive tomorrow's open.  

Traders that took our bearish "High Risk/Reward" trade in Altera 
(NASDAQ:ALTR) will note this evening's earnings of $0.03 a share, 
which was inline with estimates.  We didn't think there would be 
any surprise in this one as its major competitor Xilinx 
(NASDAQ:XLNX) reported inline earnings last week.  Both stocks 
have sold off from there.  However, Altera (ALTR) did say that 
they feel they've seen the "bottom in the cycle."  Today, ALTR 
did trade our first bearish target of $22 (that's where the stock 
closed tonight), but I still think there's a chance that the 
stock could trade $20 before all is said and done.  This trade 
has gone pretty much to plan and should not turn into a loss.  
James will be setting a lowered stop on the trade, but 
subscribers should review their accounts and act accordingly.  If 
you're in need of a profit, then don't try and squeeze every last 
drop of water from the sponge.

Tomorrow's earnings are full again

Tomorrow's calendar for earnings holds some of the "who's who" 
once again.  With some of the major technology stocks having 
already given us the early preview, I'm not expecting any "market 
moving" earnings.

Drug stocks as depicted by the Pharmaceutical Index (DRG.X) found 
bidders today and this sector bucked the broader market with a 
1.49% today.  Drug maker Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is scheduled to 
report earnings tomorrow morning of $0.60 a share, and any type 
of upside surprise there could get a nice move going in this 
group.  When technology stocks are under some selling pressure, 
the more defensive drug stocks can find cash rotating to them as 
well as some of the healthcare stocks.  Subscribers have a nice 
profit going in our bearish play in shares of Andrx Group 
(NASDAQ:ADRX) so check tonight's play update as we're moving down 
our stop just in case the sector gets too bullish, which can 
sometimes create a tide that lifts all boats.  A stock I've 
mentioned before that I like as the "drug leader" are shares of 
Forest Labs (NYSE:FRX).  This one's been bumping its head at $83 
since last summer and a break above that level has the stock at 
new 52-week highs with no overhead supply in the way.

Remember to check the "Market Watch" section of the newsletter 
for a snapshot view of major earnings due out this week.
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/indexes/marketwatch.asp

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Where’s Johnny Nash when you need him?
by Russ Moore


Mr. Nash, for those that don’t remember, was the gentleman who 
gave us the tune "I can see clearly now", a song which few CFO’s 
have had on their lips and the primary reason for the market’s 
performance of late.

Earnings estimates continue to be met or exceeded, but we’ve yet 
to hear much in the way of growth prospects. Lack of positive 
guidance continues to be the missing factor in the bull market 
equation.

The day started out with green arrows before turning red by the 
lunch-hour. The DOW ended with a loss of -0.6 percent while the 
NASDAQ dropped -2.5 percent and the NDX -2.9 percent. Volume was 
moderate with 1.30 billion shares trading on the NYSE and 1.80 
billion on the tech index. Losers triumphed over winners by an 
18/14 margin on the big board and 23/13 on the NASDAQ.


Despite the bearish tone, several sectors managed decent gains. 
Drug, bank, biotech, paper and retail were among the winners 
while brokerage, natural gas, utility and oil service sectors 
were headed lower. Tech action was weak across the board with 
hardware, networking and chip stocks facing stiff selling 
pressure.

Investors seemed indifferent to a surprisingly strong piece of 
economic data. December’s leading economic indicator number 
increased by +1.2 percent, the strongest number since February 
96’. The positive data prompted the Conference Board to state “ 
the recession could be over soon”.

Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch’s chief U.S. strategist, told 
clients in a research note that a re-allocation of funds would be 
advisable. Mr. Bernstein noted "the tech sector is selling at the 
highest P/E ratio in the history of our data, while the drug 
industry is selling at one of its lowest". He went on to say that 
tech stocks had reached "bubble-like" valuations. Coupled with 
good numbers from Johnson and Johnson, the drug index enjoyed a 
nice move of +1.49 percent

Funds flow tracker, Trim Tabs remains in the bearish camp. The 
company said corporate liquidity has set another negative record 
with an absence of cash takeovers and a small amount of new stock 
buybacks.

As more and more company’s report limited growth prospects, 
investors should begin to lower their expectations. At least, 
that’s what the bulls are hoping for. With lowered expectations, 
and the possibility of better than expected second quarter 
numbers, the markets would be perfectly positioned for a spring 
rally. Sounds good doesn’t it? Of course, the bears have a 
completely different scenario in mind. The bears are counting on 
the tag team of media and analysts to do their bit in pre-
maturely lifting the markets, thereby providing the perfect 
shorting opportunity. Should make for an interesting few months.


VIX
Monday 01/22 close: 25.10


VXN
Monday 01/22 close: 50.37


30-yr Bonds
Monday 01/22 close: 5.37


Total Put/Call Ratio: .65


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .59


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.88


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 37.40

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/28,854
Maximum puts : 38/64,604

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 39
 20 DMA 40
 50 DMA 40
200 DMA 40

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 570.63

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 580/3,504
Maximum puts : 500/5,746

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  582
 20 DMA  586
 50 DMA  585
200 DMA  599

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1119.31

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/27,049
Maximum puts : 1150/25,635
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1141
 20 DMA 1148
 50 DMA 1143
200 DMA 1166

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,713.80

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls:  98/10,507
Maximum Puts    90/16,987

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  Unavailable
 20 DMA 
 50 DMA 
200 DMA 

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 520.88

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/285
Maximum Puts:  600/506

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 542
 20 DMA 560
 50 DMA 576
200 DMA 544

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 499.13

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 570/960
Maximum Puts:  370/638

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 553
 20 DMA 549
 50 DMA 541
200 DMA 553

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 380.27

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 380/  51
Maximum Puts:  380/1300

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 377
 20 DMA 379
 50 DMA 386
200 DMA 390

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/18. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/01/02     338,288   407,107   (68,729)   17.1% 
01/08/02     333,742   398,283   (64,541)   (6.1%)
01/15/02     340,005   397,024   (57,019)  (11.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/01/02       127,419    55,576    71,843    (1.6%)
01/08/02       130,335    60,780    69,555    (3.1%)
01/15/02       129,987    64,311    65,676    (5.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/01/02      29,801    37,497    (7,696)
01/08/02      30,786    37,457    (6,671)    (13.3%)
01/15/02      32,068    34,859    (2,791)    (58.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/01/02       10,649     5,913    4,736   
01/08/02       10,073     6,404    3,669    (22.5%)
01/15/02       10,230     9,782      448    (87.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/01/02      15,820     7,553    8,267      1.3%
01/08/02      15,921     7,981    7,940     (3.9%)
01/15/02      15,866     9,175    6,691    (15.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/01/02       3,368     8,668    (5,300)     10.6%
01/08/02       4,380     9,188    (4,808)     (9.3%)
01/15/02       4,979     8,747    (3,768)    (21.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +65,676     +69,555        -57,019    -64,541

Total Open
Interest %       (+33.80%)  (+36.39%)      (-7.74%)   (-8.82%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -3,768     -4,808          +6,691    +7,940
Total Open
interest %       (-27.45%)    (-35.44%)      (+26.72%)  (+33.22)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +448      +3,669         -2,791    -6,671

Total Open
Interest %        (+2.24%)   (+22.27%)     (-4.17%) (-9.78%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:. Slight shift by the Commercials as they reduced their 
net-short position by a small percentage on the S&P 500. Nothing 
to get too excited about though, remember, we’re looking for 
increased divergence, and this week the Small Specs were also 
lightening up on their net-long positions.

Gold: After peaking at 61.04 on Wednesday, the XAU (gold and 
silver index) has fallen to today’s close of 58.34. The fact that 
the Commercial players were busy loading up on short contracts 
(moving from 24,042 to 53,938) on Tuesday, might have had just a 
little influence on the index’s demise.

12/18 15,198 contracts net-short
12/25 11,976 contracts net-short
01/01 14,555 contracts net-short
01/08 24,042 contracts net-short
01/15 53,938 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 01/15 by the CFTC.



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 50.99 change: +0.17 stop: 48.75

Company Description:
With annual revenues of $20 billion, FedEx Corp. is the premier 
global provider of transportation, e-commerce and supply chain 
management services. The company offers integrated business 
solutions through a network of subsidiaries operating 
independently, including FedEx Express, the world's largest 
express transportation company; FedEx Ground, North America's 
second-largest provider of small-package ground delivery service; 
FedEx Freight, a leading provider of regional less-than-truckload 
freight services; FedEx Custom Critical, the world's largest 
provider of expedited time-critical shipments; and FedEx Trade 
Networks, a provider of customs brokerage, consulting, 
information technology and trade facilitation solutions. 
(source: company press release)

- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: January 18th, 2002 -

Why We Like It:
We think FDX is an attractive trading buy.  What does that mean?  
It means traders might be able to capture a short-term bounce in 
the stock price after the recent selling but to do so with 
diligent stop placement and realistic targets.  As a major air 
freight carrier, shares of the company were obviously hit hard 
during the September tragedy.  However, FDX has risen strongly 
from those September lows hitting new relative highs while 
stopping along the way to consolidate gains and head higher 
again.  Earnings on December 19th were okay but were boosted by 
their portion of the airline bailout package.  Last Friday 
Salomon Smith Barney downgraded FDX to a neutral.  Their concerns 
seemed to stem from current valuations being too high ahead of 
actual economic recovery.  The stock gapped down and fell to 
sellers for the next few days.  On Wednesday of this week shares 
had reached their 50-dma near $48.75 (FDX closed at $48.70).  
Ending the day at its low, FDX had appeared to confirm the new 
downtrend on a high volume break of support at $50.  The very 
next day the stock posted a reversal back above the $50 level on 
even stronger volume.  This bounce off the 50-dma was confirmed 
with a another positive day on Friday made even more bullish by 
the negative market action in the broader indices.  We're being 
optimistic but the MACD is showing a potential bullish divergence 
in its histogram.  We are going to try and play any bounce with 
an initial target of $55.  Our initial stop will be $48.75 or 
Thursday's low.  Given the recent downturn in the Dow Jones, we 
think that a market bounce next week might accelerate any rebound 
in FDX.  

- Play-of-the-Day Comments: January 22nd, 2002 -

The trend in the price of oil continues to slip.  As a large 
provider of transportation services FDX spends a lot of money on 
fuel.  It was also encouraging for the bulls to see shares of FDX 
posting a small gain today despite selling pressure across the 
markets.  A dip to $50 might be an attractive entry point to 
consider a long position.

Picked on January 18th at $50.82 
Gain since picked:         +0.17
Earnings Date           03/20/02 (unconfirmed)






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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 01-22-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/1671_2.asp
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In section two:

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  FDX, IKN, LTR, PBY, TGH, UNH
  Bearish Play Updates:  ADRX, SIVB, SPY

High Risk / High Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  EXPE
  Bearish Play Updates:  ALTR
  Closed Bullish Plays:  PVN

Net Bulls
   - none - 

Split Trader
   - none -

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 50.99 change: +0.17 stop: 48.75

Any day our long plays can post a gain with the broader markets 
in decline sounds like a good day to us.  FDX was one of those 
stocks that ended in the green but shares did show weakness as 
the Dow Jones continued to descend.  Traders might get an 
opportunity to buy on a dip to $50 if the sell-off continues 
tomorrow in the stock market.  We see no need to rush into a long 
position so choose your entry carefully.  

Picked on January 18th at $50.82 
Gain since picked:         +0.17
Earnings Date           03/20/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Ikon Office Solutions - IKN - cls: 12.02 chg: -0.42 stop: 11.69

We are noticing an interesting pattern on some stocks that had 
held up well during the first half of the trading session and 
then suddenly fell to selling pressure midday.  The broader 
indices all traded in similar fashion with steady declines after 
the morning open so we don't know what the catalyst for the 
sudden drop may have been.  Shares of IKN have traded to the $12 
level multiple times in the past several sessions and bulls will 
want to see the stock hold this support level.  A bounce higher 
may offer an attractive entry point.  If shares fall under $12, 
we would expect to be stopped out soon thereafter.  On a side 
note, Ikon's Board of Directors approved the company's normal 
quarterly cash dividend of $0.04.  The shareholder record date to 
receive this dividend is Feb. 18th, 2002.  The dividend is 
payable on March 10th.  Don't forget that earnings are expected 
on Friday, Jan. 25th.

Picked on January 11th at $12.31 
Gain since picked:         -0.29
Earnings Date           01/25/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Loews Corp - LTR - close: 60.67 change: +0.52 stop: 55.99

LTR is another long play that has managed to out perform the 
major indices for the first day of trading this week.  The stock 
gained about 50 cents but the move was not very convincing.  
Volume has been climbing the last few days which is an 
encouraging sign for the bulls.  News of note over the weekend is 
the coming "IPO" for LTR's tobacco division, Lorillard.  LTR 
plans to issue a tracking stock of its tobacco unit under the 
name Carolina Group and the stock symbol "CG", which was the 
previous stock symbol for the Columbia Energy Group.  The 
offering is expected to raise more than $800 million with Salomon 
Smith Barney and Morgan Stanley each selling over 31 million 
shares between $25 and $28.  A dip back to $59.50 or $59.00 in 
LTR would not be a surprise but we would prefer to see the stock 
bounce at the $60 level.  

Picked on January 18th at $60.15 
Gain since picked:         +0.52
Earnings Date           01/31/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Pep Boys Man Moe - PBY - close: 15.60 change: -0.40 stop: 14.99

PBY's battle for the $16 level slid back into the bear's favor on 
Tuesday.  Shares lost 2.5% while the broader markets slipped 
lower.  In contrast, other auto parts retail/service stocks made 
marginal gains.  Traders may want to be patient and wait for PBY 
to rebound back above the $16.00 level before initiating new 
plays considering the current market environment.  Yet a bounce 
at $15.50, as discussed over the weekend, might be an attractive 
entry for more aggressive players as long as you wait for the 
bounce to begin. 

Picked on January 18th at $16.00 
Gain since picked:         -0.40
Earnings Date           02/14/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Trigon Healthcare - TGH - close: 71.42 change: +0.01 stop: 68.49

Our normally bullish healthcare play in TGH languished in a 
sideways trading pattern while the majority of the market 
tumbled.  Investors have about 2.5 weeks before TGH plan to 
announce earnings, which they confirmed, would be Friday, Feb. 
8th, 2002.  

Picked on January 11th at $71.42 
Gain since picked:         +0.00
Earnings Date           02/08/02 (confirmed)




---

UnitedHealth Group - UNH - close: 72.55 change: -0.03 stop: 68.49

More of the same for shares of UNH.  The stock has been holding 
support at the $72 level but the intraday highs have been 
dropping the last couple of days.  UNH did confirm that they 
would announce earnings on Thursday, Jan. 24th, 2002 before the 
market opens.  The estimates are for $0.73 a share.  We are 
choosing to hold over the announcement but doing so does entail a 
higher degree of risk.  If you choose not to, you'll need to 
close your position before the ending bell on Wednesday.  

Picked on January 11th at $71.75 
Gain since picked:         +0.80
Earnings Date           01/24/02 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Andrx Group - ADRX - close: 60.49 change: -0.47 stop: 61.76 *new* 

There has been nothing new to report for ADRX but bears should 
feel a bit more comfortable that the stock did not react to the 
positive move in the DRG.X drug index.  The move higher for the 
drug sector was fueled by a positive earnings report from drug 
giant Merck & Co (NYSE:MRK).  Just in case ADRX decides to 
produce a delayed reaction to the new bullish sentiment for the 
drug sector, which was partially powered by comments from Merrill 
Lynch today, we are going to lower our stop to $61.76.  The 
intraday highs on Friday and today were both near $61.60 to 
$61.65.  Bears are now looking for a breakdown below the $60 
mark.  If it occurs we'll want as much volume as possible to 
emphasize any conviction behind the move.

Picked on January 4th at $64.14 
Gain since picked:        +3.67
Earnings Date          10/25/01 (confirmed)




---

Silicon Valley - SIVB - cls: 22.27 chg: -0.66 stop: 24.00 *new*

Shares of SIVB continue to fall on heavy volume, which is exactly 
what bears want to see.  The move today helps confirm the 
breakdown below the 200-dma on Friday.  This 2.88% drop also puts 
SIVB below the price congestion seen near the end of October and 
early November.  Shares were given an extra push when Merrill 
Lynch downgraded the stock from long-term buy to long-term 
neutral.  It is possible that the stock could produce an oversold 
bounce at $22 but we think the real obstacle was potential 
support at $23.00 and $22.50.  Now that SIVB is past this area 
we're feeling a bit more confident.  Shorts should still expect 
potential bullish support at $22 and $21.  We are going to nudge 
our stop down to one cent over Friday's high ($24.00).  Our exit 
price of $20.05 is still in effect.

Picked on January 18th at $22.93
Gain since picked:         +0.66
Earnings Date           01/16/02 (confirmed)


 

---

SPDRS S&P 500 - SPY - cls: 112.37 chg: -0.78 stop: 115.57 

This is it!  The S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) fell to a low of $112.02 
before bouncing higher towards the close.  For days now we have 
been focusing on support at the $112 level.  Bears need to see 
this level break soon.  There are a growing number of technical 
analysts clamoring that the markets are oversold.  On a short-
term basis we would agree with them but that doesn't mean the 
markets can't slip a little further.  If the SPY trades to 
$110.05 we'll close the play but we're not expecting it to happen 
tomorrow.  The good news, or the bad news depending on your 
perspective, is that today's performance actually produced a 
bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.  It is not terribly 
impressive but it is a bearish pattern and not one we would be 
buying big long positions in front of.  The move conservative 
stop at $114 still looks like a sensible position but we are not 
moving our stop.

Picked on January 9th at $115.57
Gain since picked:         +3.20
Earnings Date                n/a 






===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------




==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Expedia, Inc. - EXPE - close: 43.21 change: -1.28 stop: 41.99

It would have been natural to expect AMZN's strong performance 
(+24%) might have boosted the rest of the Internet sector but no 
such luck for the bulls today.  Instead, shares of EXPE fell 
almost 3% towards its 15-dma.  Volume was light and aggressive 
traders may want to see this move as an entry point.  We did 
mention over the weekend that a dip to $43.00 or $42.50 might be 
a good place to evaluate a new position.  However, we are 
suddenly cautious on the stock for two reasons.  The first and 
most obvious reason is the broader market activity.  The drops in 
the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq do not bode well for long positions 
in general and less active traders may want to sit on the 
sidelines until we find a bottom.  The second reason we are 
turning cautious on EXPE was today's candlestick pattern.  EXPE 
just produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which 
could be forecasting that a new downward trend is in the works.  
Look for confirmation on any bounce before initiating any 
positions.  With out stop at $41.99 there isn't a lot of room for 
EXPE to "play with".  Don't forget that earnings are expected on 
Monday.

Picked on January 18th at $44.49 
Change since picked:       -1.28
Earnings Date           01/28/02 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Altera Corp. - ALTR - close: 22.00 change: -1.01 stop: 23.01 *new*

Another day of weakness hit the technology sectors on Tuesday 
with chip stocks leading the way.  The SOX.X fell 23.91 points or 
4.57% to close below the 500 level, a very bearish move.  The 
semiconductor general, INTC, also fell dramatically with a 5.3% 
loss.  Negative comments from German chipmaker Infineon 
Technologies (NYSE:IFX) did little to inspire investor confidence 
when they stated that any economic or profit recovery was still a 
ways off and probably going to be smaller than expected 
(Reuters).  A lot of the guidance coming out tonight after the 
close seemed to be negative or at least disappointing with many 
companies saying any improvement will be very late 2002 or even 
2003.  At the time of this writing, we have not yet heard about 
the ALTR conference call.  The did post a press release about 
their year-end and 4Q numbers with quarterly earnings coming in 
line with estimates at $0.03/per share (pro forma).  After hour 
trading to this point has shown ALTR moving from $21.97 to 
$22.23.  If you have been following this play then short-term 
traders should have already taken profits at the $22 level (about 
9%).  We are going to move our stop down to $23.01, which should 
protect a 5% move in the stock.  Given the action in the SOX we 
think there could be more downside in the group and ALTR might be 
able to trade to $20.

Picked on January 11th at $24.20
Gain since picked:         +2.20
Earnings Date           01/22/02 (confirmed)





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Providian Financial - PVN - close: 3.90 change: -0.64 stop: 3.99

After trading higher near the open, shares of PVN appeared to 
have fallen off a cliff shortly after 10:00 a.m. this morning.  
The cause of the drop is unclear.  There was no news for the 
company that might explain the sharp reaction.  We did see a 
large trade for more than 70K shares go by at $4.15 as well as a 
ton of trading right at the $4.00 mark.  We would have been 
stopped out at $3.99 for a 34-cent loss.  PVN could still be a 
candidate for an aggressive trade but it would be beneficial to 
know what caused the move today.  Bullish investors willing to 
bet on a long-term move for PVN may want to wait until after 
their earnings report this month.

Picked on January 16th at $ 4.33 
Gain since picked:         -0.34
Earnings Date           01/29/02 (unconfirmed)






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CEO     Cnooc Ltd                  20.45     +0.77
CF      Charter One Financial      28.02     +0.73
KBH     Kb Home                    40.28     +0.76
NX      Quanex Corp                29.11     +0.71
PLMD    Polymedica Corp            19.85     +0.85

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AMZN    Amazon.com Inc             12.60     +2.44
PC      Perez Compac               10.15     +1.28
FLM     Fleming Companies Inc      19.15     +1.88
BUCA    Buca Inc                   18.00     +1.55
BFR     Banco Frances               5.21     +1.66
ENMD    Entremed Inc                7.83     +1.03

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

WFC     Wells Fargo & Co           46.67     +1.29
BAC     Banc of America Corp       62.67     +1.87
CAH     Cardinal Health Inc        67.19     +5.27
WY      Weyerhaeuser Co            53.72     +2.21
MCK     McKesson Corp              38.94     +1.99
AGN     Allergan Inc               74.26     +2.94
RBK     Reebok Intl. Ltd           28.44     +1.13

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

VIA.B	Viacom Inc Class B	38.60	-1.94
NOK     Nokia Corp                 21.15     -1.35
RTRSY   Reuters Group              52.09     -1.07
PSFT    PeopleSoft Inc             33.59     -1.75
KYO     Kyocera Corp               58.75     -2.27
ACS     Affiliated Computer Svc   103.00     -5.08

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

FSH     Fisher Scientific          28.31     -2.44




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