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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 01/24/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Thursday 01-24-2002
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Transports trying to buck recent trend
Market Sentiment: Bullish "spin" helps a little.
Play-of-the-Day:  Banks Looking Bullish

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       1-24-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9796.07 + 65.11  9856.97  9734.21  1.5 bln   1736/1380
NASDAQ   1942.58 + 20.20  1959.93  1936.34  1.8 bln   2037/1530
S&P 100   575.09 +  1.46   579.40   573.63   Totals   3773/2910
S&P 500  1132.15 +  3.97  1139.50  1128.18
RUS 2000  479.73 +  2.28   481.33   477.45
DJ TRANS 2747.21 -  8.42  2797.35  2746.97
VIX        22.77 -  0.89    23.45    22.39
VXN        47.37 -  0.78    48.69    46.84
TRIN        0.81
Put/Call Ratio       .46
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Transports trying to buck recent trend

One group of stocks we've felt that traders and investors should 
at least me monitoring to get a feel for the MARKET's perception 
of the economy going forward are the transports.  Yesterday's 
bounce off the longer-term 200-day moving average perhaps has the 
"economic bull's" scenario for a recovering economy getting some 
upside confirmation.

Dow Transportation Average - Daily Interval




Yesterday's and today's action in the transports as characterized 
by the Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN) looks bullish and 
may help confirm the MARKET's perception that an economic 
recovery is alive and well.  Last summer, the TRAN acted very 
similar at downward trend with a brief break above trend that was 
put in place from the May 1999 highs near $3,800.  

This past summer the break back below the 200-day MA spelled 
"doom" for the group and the recent test of the rounding 200-day 
MA and bounce higher is encouraging for economic bulls.  It's a 
long-held belief that the transports do well in front of an 
economic recovery and we're seeing some DIVERGENCE from the past 
that is bullish here.

The TRAN did try to put in a bullish session today, but by 
session's end finished marginally lower and closed right on our 
downward trend.  Just as Mr. Greenspan testified today to the 
economy showing some early signs of recovery, the TRAN is 
depicting similar signs.  

I think its way too early to take anything away from the action 
in the TRAN as it relates to our scenario that this group will 
give hint to a pending economic recovery.

Near-term we may very well see some "digesting of gains" in this 
group, just as the broader market seems to be digesting some 
gains.  The fact that the TRAN is at least digesting its gains 
near the recent highs and above its 200-day moving average 
(considered a longer-term moving average) is more "bullish" than 
what we saw this past summer when the TRAN sliced back below its 
200-day MA like it wasn't even there.  

I won't be surprised if this index trades sideways for the next 
couple of weeks, but we want to continue monitoring its price 
action.  A sharp move higher may well be a signal that MARKET 
participants (bulls and bears) are getting more aggressive with a 
view of more vibrant economic picture, while any type of move 
back lower would depict that of a more temped economic 
environment.

Mr. Greenspan

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that there 
are some signs of economic recovery and his prepared remarks were 
did not hold some of the more "negative" undertones (words like 
significant risk were left out today).  Two weeks ago the words 
"significant risks" were used in a Greenspan speech and stock 
began to trend lower until the past two sessions.  Today's 
comments from Greenspan have many thinking that next week's FOMC 
meeting and decision on interest rates will have the Federal Open 
Market Committee standing pat.  The futures market at the Chicago 
Board of Trade is pricing in just a 10% chance of a rate cut next 
week, while the federal funds futures markets are now pricing in 
a 40% chance that the Fed will raise rates twice by the end of 
June.

Bond market response

At the 03:00 PM EST close for the bond market, the 2-year 
Treasury note was down 5/32 at $99 22/32 to YEILD 3.16% (up 8 
basis points), and the 5-year Treasury note was down 6/32 at $96 
10/32 to YIELD 4.351% (up 4 basis points).  The Fed's interest-
rate moves have more immediate impact on the shorter-maturity end 
of the YIELD curve.

Action at the longer-end and the 10-year ($TNX.X) and 30-year 
($TYX.X) was less active.  The benchmark 10-year fell 2/32 to $99 
24/32 to YIELD 5.029%, while the 30-year bond actually rose 1/32 
at $98 21/32 to finish with an unchanged YIELD of 5.461%.

10-year YIELD Chart - Daily Interval




Man!  Just as we see such similarity in the TRAN chart to last 
summer, we see some similarity in the 10-year YIELD action.  The 
rounding MACD has yet to cross above the signal, but YIELD does 
look like it is going higher near-term.  I'm still cautious with 
bullish trades in stocks due to what happened last summer on very 
similar technicals.  Just as the Dow Transportation Average 
(TRAN) is battling a long-term downward trend, the 10-year YIELD 
chart is doing the same thing.

The higher lows that are building in the 10-year chart that seem 
to come right at our retracement seem bullish for stocks longer 
term.  That is, if my scenario of higher longer-term YIELDS is a 
sign from the bond market that the economy is indeed recovering 
and the longer-term safety of this bond is no longer as 
attractive at such low YIELDS.  As each higher reversal is found 
(reversal from 4.64% and recent reversal from 4.81%) you and I 
can imagine this is a stock and I'd be moving up alerts under 
each reversal.  A break back below the 4.78% level would be a 
clear negative for stocks.

Just as I'm watching the Dow Transportation Average (TRAN) for 
any type of sharp move away from its longer-term downward trend, 
I'm doing the same for the 10-year YIELD.  The recent move higher 
in this YIELD has been gradual, but stocks have followed the past 
two sessions.  I still believe this is a "trader's market."

I'm trying to turn over as many stones as possible to try and 
uncover some conclusive evidence or hint from the market that 
there is indeed an accelerating economy.  The signs I see are 
that of gradual recovery and when a stock jumps sharply, it most 
often will pull back if its business is more dependent on a 
strong economy.  Some of the stocks that don't seem to be pulling 
back as much are the less economically sensitive healthcare.

I don't get frustrated often

In this morning's 09:00 Update, I answered an e-mail from a 
subscriber that touched on "frustration."  Was today's action and 
"rumor" that JC Penney's (NYSE:JCP) $23 73 -8.2%, Eckerd Pharmacy 
division may have overcharged the government for Medicare 
billing, been a test of my patience?  

I've said before that I HATE rumors!  I HATE it even more when it 
impacts a stock I'm either trading or have mentioned.  I've even 
told subscribers to close out a trade when the "rumor" impacts 
the stock in their favor and a nice gain is at hand.  If the 
"rumor" is unfounded, the stock often times corrects back to 
previous trading levels.

For those that took the trade from last night's commentary and 
had their stop just under the recent low of $24.63, there's not 
much we can do.  This type of junk will happen.  If the rumor is 
true, then perhaps it is best.  Those that had a longer-term view 
and a stop under the $24 level may also be stopped out.  Yes, 
this is very frustrating, but to dwell on it does little good.  

If however, today's "rumor" is not true, I hope they find the 
person that started it, look to see if they were a short in the 
stock, and go from there.  I have not seen any public releases 
from JC Penney and the only information I see is the published 
rumor by Briefing.com when the stock had already fallen below 
$24.  For now, if stopped out, stay on the sidelines.  If still 
long, stick with your trading plan as you had outlined.

I don't think there is anything you or I could have done to 
foresee today's action in JCP.

Tonight's earnings

Once again, I don't see any type of earnings news that looks to 
be market moving.  Here's a brief recap of some of the more 
widely followed and what was taking place in after-hours action.  
The bulk of the guidance looks to be cautious.

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $7.98 +0.38% ... reports loss of $0.19 a 
share, worse than consensus for loss of $0.02 a share.  Revenues 
for Q2 were $286 million, which was better than estimates for 
$280.9 million.  Expects Q3 revenue to be 10-15% below the 
December quarter ($243-$257 million), which would be below 
consensus of $256.6 million.  Stock trading down at $7.41 (-7.1% 
from close).

PeopleSoft (PSFT) $38.43 +5.4% ... reported earnings of $0.18 a 
share, better than estimates for earnings of $0.16.  Stock 
trading down $2.18 (-5.6% from close) at $36.25.

Qualcomm (QCOM) $43.75 +0.48% ... reports Q1 earnings of $0.23 a 
share, inline with consensus.  QCOM warning for Q2; sees 3-6% 
sequential decline in Q2 revenues, or $651-$672 million vs. 
consensus of $723.1 million.  EPS now seen at $0.19-$0.21, which 
is below estimates looking for $0.24.  Stock trading $41.90 in 
after-hours, roughly -4.2% lower than close.

Gateway (GTW) $6.36 -3.6% ... reports Q4 earnings of $0.02 a 
share, penny better than estimates for earnings of $0.01 a share.  
Revenues came in at $1.14 billion, pretty much inline with 
estimates for $1.15 million.  Company says it expects to have 
pre-tax losses, before charges, for the next few quarters while 
it attempts to regain market share in its core PC business.

McDATA (MCDT) $31.00 +3.2% ... reports earnings of $0.03, 3-cents 
better than estimates for break even.  Revenues for quarter were 
$93.5 million versus the estimate for $87.1 million.  Company 
updates future guidance which is pretty much inline with 
consensus.  Company says Q1 revenues look to be in the $85-$95 
million range (consensus $89.8 million) and earnings for Q1 in 
the break even to $0.02 a share range. ($0.01 consensus).  Stock 
trading $28.66 in after-hours trading (-7.5% from close).

Verisign (NASDAQ:VRSN) $36.25 -1.25% ... company reports earnings 
of $0.19 a share, which meets consensus.  Company did guide lower 
for next quarter as they are looking for earnings of $0.20, which 
was substantially lower than consensus of $0.25 by analysts.  
Stock currently trading at $32.20, $4 lower than 4:00 p.m. close.  

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Bullish "spin" helps a little.
by Russ Moore


Mr. Greenpsan delivered his speech this morning with all of the 
usual fanfare that accompanies the Fed chief’s appearances. The 
task could not have been easier for Mr. G; dusting off the 
January 11 speech and changing but a few sentences was all that 
was needed. This time around, Mr. Greenspan spoke of an economy 
that is starting to firm while downplaying some of the risks 
mentioned in his previous speech.

Markets received an additional boost from several positive 
earnings reports and another decline in the jobless rate. The 
major indices hit their peaks around 10:00 EST before giving back 
half of the gains by the closing bell.

The DOW ended with a gain of +0.7 percent while the NASDAQ added 
+1.0 percent and the NDX +1.0 percent. Volume was steady with 
1.48 billion shares trading on the NYSE and 1.88 billion on the 
NASDAQ. Winners outpaced losers by a 17/14 count on the big board 
and 20/15 on the tech index.

Oil service, paper, banks and airlines enjoyed solid gains on the 
broader markets while biotech, drug, gold, retail and brokerages 
suffered losses. Software, hardware and Internet sectors were the 
star performers on the tech side.

For the most part, bottom line numbers in this current round of 
earnings announcements have been in-line, or better, than 
expected. The challenge remains in the top-line data. There are a 
few exceptions like NOKIA, which came out with better than 
expected earnings and positive growth going forward. That type of 
report, repeated several times over is precisely what’s needed 
for a bull market to ensue. On the other hand, Kodak’s report, 
that was also favorable, was not what the bulls need to hear. The 
company said it expects continued economic weakness to depress 
earnings for 2002. Consistency folks, that’s what’s missing.



VIX
Thursday 01/24 close: 22.77


VXN
Thursday 01/24 close: 47.37


30-yr Bonds
Thursday 01/24 close: 5.46


Total Put/Call Ratio: .46


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .39


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.14


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 38.94

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/46,508
Maximum puts : 35/66,546

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 39
 20 DMA 40
 50 DMA 40
200 DMA 40

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 575.09

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 580/4,672
Maximum puts : 520/7,817

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  579
 20 DMA  585
 50 DMA  585
200 DMA  599

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1132.15

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/27,156
Maximum puts : 1150/24,821
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1136
 20 DMA 1147
 50 DMA 1144
200 DMA 1166

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,796.07

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls:  98/11,175
Maximum Puts    90/17,087

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,844
 20 DMA  9,988
 50 DMA  9,935
200 DMA 10,105

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 530.21

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/301
Maximum Puts:  560/717

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 537
 20 DMA 555
 50 DMA 575
200 DMA 545

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 523.62

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 570/976
Maximum Puts:  540/470

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 540
 20 DMA 549
 50 DMA 542
200 DMA 553

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 378.72

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 380/  51
Maximum Puts:  380/1325

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 378
 20 DMA 379
 50 DMA 386
200 DMA 390

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/18. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/01/02     338,288   407,107   (68,729)   17.1% 
01/08/02     333,742   398,283   (64,541)   (6.1%)
01/15/02     340,005   397,024   (57,019)  (11.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/01/02       127,419    55,576    71,843    (1.6%)
01/08/02       130,335    60,780    69,555    (3.1%)
01/15/02       129,987    64,311    65,676    (5.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/01/02      29,801    37,497    (7,696)
01/08/02      30,786    37,457    (6,671)    (13.3%)
01/15/02      32,068    34,859    (2,791)    (58.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/01/02       10,649     5,913    4,736   
01/08/02       10,073     6,404    3,669    (22.5%)
01/15/02       10,230     9,782      448    (87.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/01/02      15,820     7,553    8,267      1.3%
01/08/02      15,921     7,981    7,940     (3.9%)
01/15/02      15,866     9,175    6,691    (15.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/01/02       3,368     8,668    (5,300)     10.6%
01/08/02       4,380     9,188    (4,808)     (9.3%)
01/15/02       4,979     8,747    (3,768)    (21.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +65,676     +69,555        -57,019    -64,541

Total Open
Interest %       (+33.80%)  (+36.39%)      (-7.74%)   (-8.82%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -3,768     -4,808          +6,691    +7,940
Total Open
interest %       (-27.45%)    (-35.44%)      (+26.72%)  (+33.22)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +448      +3,669         -2,791    -6,671

Total Open
Interest %        (+2.24%)   (+22.27%)     (-4.17%) (-9.78%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:. Slight shift by the Commercials as they reduced their 
net-short position by a small percentage on the S&P 500. Nothing 
to get too excited about though, remember, we’re looking for 
increased divergence, and this week the Small Specs were also 
lightening up on their net-long positions.

Gold: After peaking at 61.04 on Wednesday, the XAU (gold and 
silver index) has fallen to today’s close of 58.34. The fact that 
the Commercial players were busy loading up on short contracts 
(moving from 24,042 to 53,938) on Tuesday, might have had just a 
little influence on the index’s demise.

12/18 15,198 contracts net-short
12/25 11,976 contracts net-short
01/01 14,555 contracts net-short
01/08 24,042 contracts net-short
01/15 53,938 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 01/15 by the CFTC.



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

   ----------------
   New Bullish Play
   ----------------

P N C Financial Services - PNC - cls: 62.63 chg: +1.18 stop: 59.99

Company Description:
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc., headquartered in 
Pittsburgh, is one of the nation's largest diversified financial 
services organizations, providing regional community banking, 
corporate banking, real estate finance, asset-based lending, 
wealth management, asset management and global fund services. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Despite a rather dismal earnings report in the middle of January, 
shares of PNC are making headway.  A quick glance at the chart 
and readers can see that PNC had been consolidating sideways 
between $55 and $60 with a very slow trend of higher lows.  Fast 
forward to the first week of January and the company warns that 
they will post a sizeable loss but feel comfortable with 
estimates for 2002.  Shares surge higher in the face of negative 
news and begin to consolidate near the $60 mark.  The recently 
bullish trends in the banking indices have just surged higher 
again which coincides with PNC's move today.  The BKX.X has been 
consolidating near its 200-dma but made positive gains while the 
S&P Banking index (BIX.X) broke out above the 640 level with a 
7.4 point move.  Shares of PNC surged higher and closed over its 
200-dma for the first time in months.  Volume confirmed the move 
and we think traders may want to start looking for an entry 
point.  A dip back to its 200-dma at $62 would be expected a good 
place to evaluate an entry.  We are going to start the play with 
a stop at $59.99.  The point-and-figure chart also shows a 
breakout above its descending bearish resistance as well as price 
resistance at $60.  Given enough time PNC might be able to trade 
to $70.  

Picked on January 24th at $62.63 
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           01/17/02 (confirmed)





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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Thursday 01-24-2002
                                                     section 2 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
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http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/4238_2.asp
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In section two:

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Play:      PNC
  Bullish Play Updates:  FDX, IKN, LTR, PBY, TGH, UNH
  Bearish Play Updates:  SIVB, SPY

High Risk / High Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  EXPE

Split Trader
  BSYS, a 2-for-1 split announcement
  WTFC, a 3-for-2 split announcement

Net Bulls
  - none -


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) Non-tech stock section
==================================================================

============
AT New Plays
============

   ----------------
   New Bullish Play
   ----------------

P N C Financial Services - PNC - cls: 62.63 chg: +1.18 stop: 59.99

Company Description:
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc., headquartered in 
Pittsburgh, is one of the nation's largest diversified financial 
services organizations, providing regional community banking, 
corporate banking, real estate finance, asset-based lending, 
wealth management, asset management and global fund services. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Despite a rather dismal earnings report in the middle of January, 
shares of PNC are making headway.  A quick glance at the chart 
and readers can see that PNC had been consolidating sideways 
between $55 and $60 with a very slow trend of higher lows.  Fast 
forward to the first week of January and the company warns that 
they will post a sizeable loss but feel comfortable with 
estimates for 2002.  Shares surge higher in the face of negative 
news and begin to consolidate near the $60 mark.  The recently 
bullish trends in the banking indices have just surged higher 
again which coincides with PNC's move today.  The BKX.X has been 
consolidating near its 200-dma but made positive gains while the 
S&P Banking index (BIX.X) broke out above the 640 level with a 
7.4 point move.  Shares of PNC surged higher and closed over its 
200-dma for the first time in months.  Volume confirmed the move 
and we think traders may want to start looking for an entry 
point.  A dip back to its 200-dma at $62 would be expected a good 
place to evaluate an entry.  We are going to start the play with 
a stop at $59.99.  The point-and-figure chart also shows a 
breakout above its descending bearish resistance as well as price 
resistance at $60.  Given enough time PNC might be able to trade 
to $70.  

Picked on January 24th at $62.63 
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           01/17/02 (confirmed)






===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 52.50 change: +0.25 stop: 49.99 *new*

Our FDX play is working out well.  The stock traded higher on 
Wednesday as the Dow Transports index added strong gains.  Shares 
of FDX continue to edge higher despite a sudden burst of 
bullishness in the oil sectors and the price per barrel of oil.  
The MACD for FDX is still showing a bullish divergence between 
the moving averages and the histogram.  Don't forget that we are 
only playing FDX for a short-term bounce to the $55 level.  Once 
(if) shares reach our goal the stock could struggle with a lot of 
selling (and shorting) pressure.  Traders might look for some 
resistance at the $53.50 level as seen in late December.  We are 
going to bump our stop to $49.99, which should reduce our 
exposure to 83 cents.  A dip back to $51.50 might be an entry 
point if you're still looking to initiate a long position.

Picked on January 18th at $50.82 
Gain since picked:         +1.68
Earnings Date           03/20/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Ikon Office Solutions - IKN - cls: 12.52 chg: -0.01 stop: 11.69

This is it.  For the last two weeks we've been playing IKN as a 
bullish play as it approached its earnings report.  
Unfortunately, there was not much momentum but shares did managed 
to hold onto support at the $12 level while the broader markets 
gyrated up and down (mostly down).  The stock did tick upwards on 
Wednesday but it would appear that investors are all waiting to 
hear what IKN's earnings numbers are.  The report is expected to 
come out tomorrow morning before the opening bell.  Estimates are 
for 17 cents a share.  If the report is good then shares might 
burst higher.  If this does occur we are going to set our sites 
on an exit price of $13.75.  If IKN trades there intraday 
tomorrow we'll close the play.  Otherwise, if the earnings or the 
post-announcement comments are negative we would expect the stock 
to gap down.  The question then is how low will it open?

Picked on January 11th at $12.31 
Gain since picked:         +0.21
Earnings Date           01/25/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Loews Corp - LTR - close: 60.70 change: +0.07 stop: 57.99 *new*

It would appear that investors are unsure what to make of LTR's 
Lorillard Tobacco Co.'s preliminary decision to file suit against 
the makers of the "Truth" about tobacco ad campaigns.  You've 
probably seen the commercials, which are an effort to discourage 
younger age smokers.  Lorillard says it was prompted to file suit 
as one of the recent radio spots accuses Lorillard, by name, as a 
company that puts urea in their cigarettes.  The radio spot 
alluded to the company using dog urine.  According to Lorillard 
the original agreement that gave birth to the anti-smoking 
campaign prohibited the ads from personal attacks or vilification 
of employees or specific companies.  On a side note, urea is a 
naturally occurring substance in tobacco leaves, claims 
Lorillard.  Some see the move by LTR's tobacco company as 
dangerous.  Other tobacco stocks continue to trade sideways this 
week much like LTR.  We are choosing to bump up our stop to 
$57.99 but more conservative traders can consider tighter stops.  
We would look for the 10-dma near $59.35 to act as support.

Picked on January 18th at $60.15 
Gain since picked:         +0.55
Earnings Date           01/31/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Pep Boys Man Moe - PBY - close: 15.93 change: +0.13 stop: 14.99

The auto-parts/servicing group as a whole hasn't done much this 
week.  Shares of AZO and ORLY look to be drifting lower with AZO 
seeing the worst of it despite its intraday bounce today.  In 
contrast, PBY appears to be drifting higher.  The essential 
action has still be sideways but the internals look more bullish 
for PBY.  We like the intraday bounce at the $15.45 level on 
Wednesday, which we mentioned as an entry on Tuesday night, but 
still want to see the stock back over the $16 level to make us 
more comfortable.  The MACD is about to signal a bullish 
crossover as are the 5-dma vs. the 15-dma.  We would continue to 
be cautious and patient and let PBY prove it self by closing back 
over the important $16 level.  

Picked on January 18th at $16.00 
Gain since picked:         -0.07
Earnings Date           02/14/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Trigon Healthcare - TGH - close: 71.99 change: +0.52 stop: 68.49

Healthcare stocks still look strong and TGH was up fractionally 
on Thursday after a bounce off support of $70 the previous 
session.  Like many stocks, shares of TGH have been stuck in a 
range while traders move from earnings report to earnings report 
among other sectors of the market.  The trend is still bullish 
but we'd like to see TGH actually close above the $72 mark, which 
it has been unable to accomplish.  The positive earnings report 
from our other healthcare play, UNH, might prompt some more 
attention for shares of TGH as we approach its own earnings 
announcement.

Picked on January 11th at $71.42 
Gain since picked:         +0.57
Earnings Date           02/08/02 (confirmed)




---

UnitedHealth Group - UNH - cls: 74.33 chg: +1.93 stop: 70.99*new*

This time around the risk takers won out as Wall Street applauded 
UNH's positive earnings report.  The company turned in 76 cents a 
share or $2.79 for the year.  According to their press release 
full year operating earnings were up 31%, yearly operating 
margins had moved up one full point to 6.7% with the Q4 at 7.0%, 
Q4 earnings per share were up 31% and full year operating cash 
flows were over $1.8 billion, up 21%.  The company also raised 
its guidance for the 2002 earnings forecast claiming that they 
had added new members despite the recession.  This report is a 
big boost for the whole group and shareholders were rewarded with 
a 2.6% gain to a new 52-week high.  Volume was extremely strong 
with 4.3 million shares trading.  The challenge traders have 
before them is trying to discern if this earnings report will 
fuel a more prolonged run up or just a brief burst higher?  A few 
other healthcare stocks that have announced positive earnings 
recently have been blessed with multi-day rallies.  We will look 
for the same from UNH based on their positive outlook for the 
coming year but we will move our stop up to $70.99.

Picked on January 11th at $71.75 
Gain since picked:         +2.58
Earnings Date           01/24/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Play 
  --------------------

Silicon Valley - SIVB - cls: 23.21 chg: +0.00 stop: 24.00 

Wouldn't you know it... as soon as we say SIVB might produce an 
oversold bounce at $22 it happens.  Wednesday saw SIVB trade to 
$22.07 before bouncing all the way to $23.86, within 14 cents of 
our stop.  This was intraday on Wednesday and shares closed below 
its 200-dma.  Thursday saw similar action just on a smaller range 
with a net change of zero.  Considering the light volume on these 
last two sessions we are looking at this activity as an oversold 
bounce and a failed rally at its 200-dma.  New positions could be 
taken and with our stop at $24.00 the risk should only be $79 
cents.  If you prefer more confirmation then look for SIVB to 
trade below the $22 level.  If SIVB trades to $20.05 we will 
close the play.

Picked on January 18th at $22.93
Gain since picked:         -0.28
Earnings Date           01/16/02 (confirmed)


 

---

SPDRS S&P 500 - SPY - cls: 113.58 chg: +0.35 stop: 115.57 

A strong bounce in the technology sector on Wednesday helped the 
S&P rebound from its support level of $112.  Today's move was a 
similar story and comments from Greenspan that the economy looks 
to be improving may have also added to the affect.  Check out 
Bailey's market wrap this evening for more opinion on what 
direction the market might be headed.  We would probably not 
initiate any new short plays until the SPY fell below $112.  Yet 
given our target of $110 the risk/reward may not be enough to 
make it worth your while.

Picked on January 9th at $115.57
Gain since picked:         +1.99
Earnings Date                n/a 






==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Expedia, Inc. - EXPE - close: 46.05 change: +1.90 stop: 42.69 *new*

We had turned cautious on Tuesday after EXPE produced a bearish 
candlestick pattern on what happened to be the same day the 
Nasdaq fell through its 200-dma on a big down draft.  Both the 
Nasdaq and EXPE have managed a recovery and shares of the online 
travel company are making new relative highs.  There was big news 
out yesterday for EXPE when it announced it would purchase rival 
travel company Classic Custom Vacations from the Classic Vacation 
Group Inc. (AMEX:CLV) for about $52 million in cash and stock.  
The breakdown will be about $5 million in cash while using EXPE 
stock to handle $47 million in CLV debt while assuming 
liabilities of $30 million (Reuters).  The Classic Custom 
Vacations company is a wholesaler of vacation packages with gross 
sales near $300 million.  Wall Street didn't seem to approve or 
disapprove of the deal as EXPE's stock price managed a decent 
bounce along with the rest of the tech sector.  That rebound 
continued on Thursday as shares added over 4% to close over the 
$46 level.  We are very encouraged by today's close as it appears 
EXPE has finished consolidating and looks ready for its next leg 
up.  We're still aiming for the $50 level as our target area.  
Traders need to remember that EXPE is expected to announce 
earnings after the bell on Monday, Jan. 28th.  This means we will 
either choose to close the play tomorrow (Friday) or we will 
close the play at Monday's closing bell as we are not willing to 
risk holding over the earnings announcement.  More aggressive 
traders may want to consider closing the majority of their 
position and keeping a small position in hopes of an upside 
blowout in their earnings numbers.  We are adjusting our stop to 
$42.69, which is a few cents below Tuesday's low.  If we don't 
close the play tomorrow, we'll probably raise our stop to protect 
a small gain in the stock price.  

Picked on January 18th at $44.49 
Change since picked:       +1.56
Earnings Date           01/28/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

=============
Announcements
=============

A 2-for-1 Split at the BISYS Group.

The New York-based BISYS Group (NASDAQ:BSYS) announced today 
after the bell that their Board of Directors have approved a 2-
for-1 stock split.  The record date for shareholders will be 
February 1st, 2002 with the payable on or near Friday, February 
22nd.  Expect shares to begin trading at their post split price 
on Monday, February 25th.  

The number of outstanding shares of the BSYS common stock will 
jump to almost 119 million after the split takes affect.

The stock closed at $62.38 on Thursday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=BSYS


About the company
The BISYS Group, Inc., headquartered in New York, N.Y., supports 
more than 20,000 financial institutions and corporate clients 
through three integrated business units. Its Investment Services 
group administers and distributes approximately 120 families of 
mutual funds with more than 1,200 registered and non-registered 
funds, provides retirement services to approximately 15,000 
companies in partnership with 36 of the nation's leading banks 
and investment management companies, and offers regulatory 
consulting services. The Insurance and Education Services group 
provides distribution solutions for annuities and life, long-term 
care, and disability insurance products; offers certification and 
continuing education training for insurance and investment 
professionals; and provides licensing-related software products 
and services. BISYS' Information Services group provides 
information processing and check imaging solutions to more than 
1,150 financial institutions. 
(source: company press release)

---

3-for-2 Stock Split for Wintrust Financial.

Financial holding company, Wintrust Financial Corporation 
(NASDAQ:WTFC) announced after the bell today that its Board of 
Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split of its common stock.  
This is in addition to a semi-annual cash dividend of 9 cents per 
share.

The dividend will take place on February 19th, 2002 for 
shareholders on record as of February 5th.  

The 3:2 stock split, to be enacted as a 50% stock dividend will 
take place on March 14th, 2002 for shareholders on record as of 
Monday, March 4th.  

The stock closed at $29.30 on Thursday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=WTFC


About the company
Wintrust is a financial holding company whose common stock is 
traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market®. Its seven suburban Chicago 
community bank subsidiaries, each of which was founded as a de 
novo bank since December 1991, are located in high income retail 
markets. Additionally, the Company operates three non-bank 
subsidiaries. First Insurance Funding Corporation, one of the 
largest commercial insurance premium finance companies operating 
in the United States, serves commercial loan customers throughout 
the country. Wintrust Asset Management Company, a trust and 
investment subsidiary, allows Wintrust to service customers' 
trust and investment needs at each banking location. Tricom, Inc. 
provides short-term accounts receivable financing and value-added 
out-sourced administrative services, such as data processing of 
payrolls, billing and cash management services, to temporary 
staffing service clients located throughout the United States. 
Currently, Wintrust operates a total of 29 banking offices and is 
in the process of constructing several additional banking 
facilities. (source: company press release)



==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

EK      Eastman Kodak Co           28.24     +1.74
LTD     The Limited Inc            16.92     +0.84
BR      Burlington Resources Inc   34.61     +0.87
ASO     Amsouth Bancorp            20.98     +0.76
HAL     Halliburton Co             13.43     +2.63
LEN     Lennar Corp                52.68     +1.68

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

EMC     Emc Corp                   16.83     +2.27
LSI     LSI Logic Corp             15.59     +1.28
AMZN    Amazon.com Inc             14.01     +1.54
CRUS    Cirrus Logic Inc           19.30     +1.35
SNDK    Sandisk Corp               15.82     +2.19
VITR    Vitria Technology Inc       7.29     +1.18

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

NOK     Nokia Corp                 23.30     +1.09
BAC     Bank Of America            64.00     +1.14
WB      Wachovia Corp              33.56     +1.14
FDC     First Data Corp            81.50     +1.25
AT      Alltel Corp                58.46     +2.39
RTN     Raytheon Co                34.24     +2.14
SEBL    Siebel Systems Inc         36.89     +2.09

----------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

LLY     Eli Lilly & Co             74.10     -1.67
BMY     Bristol-Myers Squibb Co    46.85     -2.53
BAX     Baxter Intl. Inc           52.70     -2.36
GENZ    Genzyme Corp               47.95     -3.10
LXK     Lexmark Intl.              52.75     -5.64
ACS     Affiliated Computer Svcs   92.25     -5.25

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

STZ     Constellation Brands Inc   45.95     -2.40
CWZ     Cable & Wireless Comm.     22.00     -0.26




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