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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 01/29/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 01-29-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Consumer confidence up, investor confidence down.
Market Sentiment: "Enronitis" takes its toll.
Play-of-the-Day:  Targeting Weakness (bearish)

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       1-29-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9618.24 -247.55  9908.16  9616.65  1.7 bln    943/2164
NASDAQ   1892.99 - 50.92  1959.05  1883.49  1.8 bln   1178/2429
S&P 100   557.28 - 17.63   577.16   556.65   Totals   2120/4593
S&P 500  1100.64 - 32.42  1137.47  1098.74
RUS 2000  473.98 -  7.30   482.38   472.13
DJ TRANS 2738.65 - 66.19  2813.56  2731.01
VIX        26.26 +  4.49    26.68    21.74
VXN        45.90 +  2.94    46.53    43.24
TRIN        2.63
Put/Call Ratio       .90
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Consumer confidence up, investor confidence down

While today's consumer confidence number showed a gain to 97.3, 
which was above economist's forecast of 96 and better than 
December's reading of 93.7, investor confidence didn't seem 
nearly as strong as stocks traded lower on worries of accounting 
practices and some dismal earnings outlooks from some consumer 
credit lenders.

By session's end, investors were left at the proverbial "fork in 
the road."  One fork leads to the higher ground as consumer 
confidence maps out a path toward shoppers spending money as 
unemployment claims appear to be abating and some stability is 
being found at the durable goods level with today's reading of 
+2%.

The other fork maps out a direction of a still struggling economy 
that bears say is analogous to a 4-wheel drive road laden with 
bumps and potholes as corporate and personal bankruptcies 
continue to rise, an inability for companies to raise prices to 
build their bottom lines and what some say is a relatively 
overpriced U.S. Dollar that helps on the inflation front, but 
makes it difficult for U.S.-based multinationals to sell products 
in foreign markets.  The struggling Euro fell to $0.86 on the 
dollar and is at its lowest point since July of last year.

5-years and $15 billion later

After spending 5-years and roughly $15 billion to build a 
worldwide network of high-speed Internet and telephone lines, 
Bermuda based Global Crossing (NYSE:GX) filed for bankruptcy 
protection yesterday, as it just couldn't find enough customers 
to make its network profitable.  The company never did turn a 
profit since coming public in August of 1998, but that didn't 
keep the stock from soaring some 540% to its pinnacle of $64.25 
in May of 1999, to now trade a measly $0.30.  Not unlike the 
company's impressive fiber optic cable traversing the floor of 
the Atlantic Ocean that connects 27 countries in the Americas, 
Europe and Asia; many investors were left underwater despite the 
company listing assets of nearly $22.4 billion.

Global Crossing's main banking relationship lies with J.P. Morgan 
Chase (NYSE:JPM) $32.05 -6.58% and Citigroup (NYSE:C) $46.71 
-5.27%.  Both JPM and C are Dow Industrial (INDU) components and 
both have direct exposure to Global Crossing, which at this time 
is not yet clear.

Cause for rumor and speculation

Bears are interesting creatures.  Sometimes I wonder if a bear 
sits around all day thinking about the next animal (stock) that 
might be as tasty as its last meal.  If so, then today's downside 
in shares of JPM and C along with that found in fellow telecom 
WorldCom shares of WCOM sure looked to attract some sellers, not 
only from bearish traders, but also from bulls that have seen 
stocks like Enron (NYSE:ENE) and Kmart (NYSE:KM) succumb to 
bankruptcy.

WorldCom Chart - Weekly Interval




There were a number of "rumors" in the market today and several 
of them were directed toward WorldCom (NASDAQ:WCOM).  The rumors 
ranged from being removed from the S&P 500 (that rumor was shot 
down as untrue) to further margin calls for the company's CEO 
Bernard Ebbers (the company does not issue comments on behalf of 
its employees investments).  Some argue that WorldCom (WCOM) may 
be a longer-term benefactor as competitor Global Crossing deals 
with bankruptcy, but others worry a continued global economic 
slowing and overbuilding of many high-speed networks has turned 
the communications business into a commodity where supply is 
currently plentiful and demand remains soft.

Bond market found buyers

Bonds traded fractionally lower at the beginning of today's 
trading as the durable goods orders showed some longer-term signs 
that improvement was seen at the industrial level, but as the 
trading session progressed, buyers showed up as investors became 
more uncertain about potential fallout in the banking sector.  By 
sessions end, the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) fell back below the 5.0% 
level to close with a YIELD of 4.975%.

One of the several consumer finance stocks that helped fuel some 
banking worries was PNC Financial Services (NYSE:PNC).  This is a 
stock we profiled as bullish in our play list on January 24th and 
$52.63 and should have been stopped out today for a loss at 
$59.99 after the financial services company said it has 
consolidated three subsidiaries of a third party financial 
institution in which it has a preferred interest.  PNC warned 
that the move will reduce its 2001 net income by approximately 
$155 million, or 53 cents a share, but would also reduce 
liabilities by over $100 million.  By session's end, PNC shed 
8.9% to close at $56.08.

On Friday, I did feel that last week's action in the banks ahead 
of tomorrow's FOMC meeting was looking bullish.  Today's 5% 
declines in both the S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) and KBW Bank Index 
(BKX.X) looks to have had many investors second guessing recent 
bets on the thought that there may be further bankruptcies 
(corporate and individual) still in the pipeline.

KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) - Daily Interval chart




Yesterday's bankruptcy announcement from Global Crossing put 
pressure on Citibank (C) and JP Morgan (JPM) today.  Throw in an 
earnings warning from sector component PNC Financial (PNC) and 
there was plenty of reason for investors to be skittish toward 
many of the major banking stocks today.  This group of stocks had 
been finding support at our retracement of $848, but today's 
break of that level, combined with the breaking of an upward 
trend now has this group looking weak.  Look for sellers near-
term on rallies back near the $848 level.

"Financial" related stocks like banks, brokers and insurance 
stocks make up approximately 18% of the S&P 500.  That 
"financial" component weighed heavily on the S&P 500 today as the 
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) fell 2.8%.  With the BKX.X and many of its 
components making up a portion of the S&P 500, our bearish trade 
in the SPDRS (AMEX:SPY) got very close to our original target of 
$110.  Please read tonight play update for those still short the 
SPY from January 9th profile at $115.57.

Tonight's Presidential address

Many eyes and ears will be tuned to tonight's speech from 
President Bush.  I'd expect a full plate of his thoughts on the 
state of the U.S. economy along with an update on the countries 
war against terrorism and potential laws dealing with various 
accounting issues as it relates to the recent Enron debacle.  I 
don't think investors will be looking for a "quick fix" to what 
happened with Enron, but a realization that the government will 
most likely have to revamp some accounting standards and perhaps 
some Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) moves to try and 
prevent other Enron debacles from happening again.

President Bush isn't going to talk about the various bullish 
percent charts that we have talked about that spell of a cautious 
market environment where internals continue to weaken.  But the 
guidance he does give should be direct and to the point.

We should understand that the President is the captain of the 
ship.  He can only do so much, but his main job is to lay out an 
action plan, explain it clearly and delegate his wishes to 
Congress and the Senate.  Democratic lawmakers are more likely to 
give President Bush a virtual "blank check," as the war against 
terrorism has broad backing among the American people.

The economic situation will be the most heavily contested between 
Republican's and Democrats and this is perhaps the greatest 
challenge the President will have before him.

Perhaps today's "banking issues" and continued bumps in the 
banking sector is indeed a sign of just how important the 
consumer currently plays into things.  As much as the Fed has cut 
rates to try and flood the U.S. economy with liquidity, it is 
still the consumer that drives the bottom line.  Consumer 
confidence is at the highest levels it has been in over a year, 
but investor confidence is another thing.  

The stock market plays an important role toward consumer 
confidence.  If investor confidence becomes damaged due to 
continued bankruptcies, and that lack of confidence spill over to 
consumer confidence and drags it lower, then the stock market 
becomes vulnerable.

Tonight, I'm taking the phone off the hook and tuning in to the 
President's speech.  A well received message and a decisive 
action plan by the President could bode well for stocks tomorrow.  
We'll have to see, but I do feel tonight's speech may well get 
more attention than tomorrow's FOMC decision on interest rates.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

"Enronitis" takes its toll.
by Russ Moore

In the wake of the Enron scandal investors have taken the 
opportunity to sharpen their pencils and clean off their 
magnifying glasses as they search for more “accounting 
irregularities” on Wall Street.

Positive economic data i.e. durable goods orders up +2.0 percent 
and consumer confidence moving to 97.3 from 94.6 was completely 
ignored thanks to increasing concerns over the TYCO affair, a 
dismal earnings report from ChevronTexaco, a warning from 
Williams Cos., and a pessimistic outlook from FleetBoston 
Financial. CFO Eugene McQuade stated, "The U.S. economy continues 
to deteriorate. We don’t see much sign of a recovery at this 
point".

Selling accelerated as the session progressed with DOW ending -
2.5 percent lower at the close. The NASDAQ dropped -2.6 percent 
and the NDX -2.9 percent. Needless to say, losers trounced 
winners by a 22/9 margin on the NYSE and 24/12 on the tech index. 
Volume picked up with 1.75 billion shares trading on the big 
board and 1.86 billion on the NASDAQ.

If it wasn’t gold, it wasn’t green. The XAU (gold and silver 
index) +3.64 percent, was the only positive sector in the 
markets. 

We’ve been talking about the volatility indices of late, noting 
that current levels were sitting at very low levels and that 
historically speaking, these levels often signal a market turn. 
Today’s action warranted that concern as the VIX moved from 21.74 
to 26.26. The VXN went from 43.24 to 45.90. These contrarian 
tools are a great way to play potential market reversals or, at 
the very least, protect you from getting caught on the wrong side 
of the market with a large position. I would urge everyone to 
pull up the long-term charts of these indices and take note of 
their performance against all major indices. It’s worth the 
effort.

Tonight’s “State of the Union address”, coupled with Greenspan’s 
probable shift to neutral, could usher in a decent market bounce. 
After that, it’s back to focusing on earnings and more 
specifically, how they were arrived at. Stay tuned for the next 
installment of “accounting 101” on Wall Street.



VIX
Tuesday 01/29 close: 26.26


VXN
Tuesday 01/29 close: 45.90


30-yr Bonds
Tuesday 01/29 close: 5.40


Total Put/Call Ratio: .90


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .76


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 2.04


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 37.98

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/47,668
Maximum puts : 38/78,378

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 38
 20 DMA 39
 50 DMA 40
200 DMA 40

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 51.95 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  27.00 (09/21/01)
38% 36.60
50% 39.57
62% 42.59

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 557.28

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 580/5,659
Maximum puts : 520/8,662

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  574
 20 DMA  582
 50 DMA  584
200 DMA  599

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 680.03 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 556.14
50% 579.65
62% 603.55

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1100.64

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/27,617
Maximum puts : 1150/23,306
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1128
 20 DMA 1142
 50 DMA 1143
200 DMA 1166

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1315.93 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1086.75
50% 1130.62
62% 1175.23

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,618.24

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls:  98/11,867
Maximum Puts    90/17,193

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,782
 20 DMA  9,936
 50 DMA  9,939
200 DMA 10,105

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 11,350.05 (05/22/01)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (05/21/01)
38%  9,308.92
50%  9,693.99
62% 10,085.60

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 500.89

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/306
Maximum Puts:  560/607

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 525
 20 DMA 543
 50 DMA 571
200 DMA 546

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 811.61 (09/25/00)
Relative Low:  383.28 (03/22/01)
38% 546.22
50% 596.57
62% 646.71

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 532.79

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 570/976
Maximum Puts:  540/476

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 531
 20 DMA 550
 50 DMA 542
200 DMA 554

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 710.78 (05/22/01)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 484.50
50% 527.18
62% 570.57

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 369.64

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 390/ 500
Maximum Puts:  300/1075

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 376
 20 DMA 377
 50 DMA 385
200 DMA 390

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 448.43 (12/29/00)
Relative Low:  339.49 (03/22/01)
38% 382.22
50% 395.69
62% 409.03

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/25. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/08/02     333,742   398,283   (64,541)   (6.1%)
01/15/02     340,005   397,024   (57,019)  (11.7%)
01/22/02     342,841   394,041   (51,700)   (9.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/08/02       130,335    60,780    69,555    (3.1%)
01/15/02       129,987    64,311    65,676    (5.5%)
01/22/02       125,451    65,423    60,028    (8.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/08/02      30,786    37,457    (6,671)    (13.3%)
01/15/02      32,068    34,859    (2,791)    (58.1%)
01/22/02      30,671    34,103    (3,432)     23.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/08/02       10,073     6,404    3,669    (22.5%)
01/15/02       10,230     9,782      448    (87.8%)
01/22/02       11,885     8,787    3,098  

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/08/02      15,921     7,981    7,940     (3.9%)
01/15/02      15,866     9,175    6,691    (15.7%)
01/22/02      18,152    11,013    7,139      6.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/08/02       4,380     9,188    (4,808)     (9.3%)
01/15/02       4,979     8,747    (3,768)    (21.6%)
01/22/02       5,424     8,969    (3,545)     (5.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +60,028     +65,676        -51,700    -57,019

Total Open
Interest %       (+31.45%)  (+33.80%)      (-6.95%)   (-7.74%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -3,545     -3,768          +7,139    +6,691
Total Open
interest %       (-24.63%)    (-27.45%)      (+24.48%)  (+26.72)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +3,098      +448         -3,432    -2,791

Total Open
Interest %        (+14.99%)   (+2.24%)     (-5.30%) (-4.17%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Commercials continued their gradual reduction in net-
short positions this week. Over the last couple of months we have 
seen the big players move as low as 4 percent net-short and then 
gradually increase their positions. So far, we’ve yet to see any 
evidence of an accumulation phase (bullish) beginning.

Gold: Anyone following the behavior of gold or the XAU.X (gold 
and silver index), better have a whiplash collar on. The XAU hit 
a low of 56.85 during the week however, Friday saw the index take 
off and close at 59.10. Commercial activity does not seem to 
coincide with this type of a move but keep in mind that these 
figures are as of Tuesday. I’ll be interested to see what next 
week’s numbers show.

12/25 11,976 contracts net-short
01/01 14,555 contracts net-short
01/08 24,042 contracts net-short
01/15 53,938 contracts net-short
01/22 50,959 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 01/22 by the CFTC.



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================

Citigroup Inc - C - close: 46.71 change: -2.60 stop: 49.25

Company Description:
Citigroup, the preeminent global financial services company with 
192 million customer accounts in more than 100 countries, 
provides consumers, corporations, governments and institutions 
with a broad range of financial products and services, including 
consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, 
insurance, securities brokerage, and asset management. Major 
brand names under Citigroup's trademark red umbrella include 
Citibank, CitiFinancial, Primerica, Smith Barney, Banamex, and 
Travelers. (source: company press releases)

Why We Like It:
The Banking sectors recent gains have come undone as the Enron 
backlash washes across the NYSE and the Nasdaq markets.  
Accounting concerns has propelled investor fears to the forefront 
whether they are real or imaginary.  Companies with any sort of 
weakness on or off the balance sheet are under the gun.  Caught 
squarely in this sell-off is Citigroup.  First of all, Citigroup 
and FleetBoston Financial (FBF) are seen as the two U.S. banks 
with the biggest exposure to Argentina.  FBF was hammered today 
for a 6% loss over more Argentina concerns.  Citigroup has 
already reported its Q4 numbers but in that report was a $470M 
loss in its exposure to the Argentina crisis.  Citigroup is also 
seen at risk due to its exposure to the Global Crossing 
bankruptcy.  Citigroup is one of the senior creditors to this GX 
bankruptcy and we'll likely see more weakness as investors flee 
the stock.  The loss today for C puts the stock price below the 
200-dma and below the recent support at the $48.50 level.  The 
stock should have support at the $45 level but we would expect 
shares to see weakness to its point-and-figure bullish support 
line near $42.  We wouldn't be surprise to see it trade to $40 as 
Wall Street tends to overdue any correction or rally.  We'll 
start the play with a stop at $49.25, which makes it a bit 
aggressive.  A failed rally at $48 might be an entry point if 
shares do bounce from today's close.

Picked on January 29th at $46.71
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           01/17/02 (confirmed)


 



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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 01-29-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/3301_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  COGN

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bearish Play:      C
  Bullish Play Updates:  CHS, FDX, PBY, QMDC, TGH, UNH
  Bearish Play Updates:  SIVB, SPY
  Closed Bullish Plays:  PNC, WCS

High Risk / High Reward
  Bearish Play Updates:  MMS

Split Trader
  split announcement:    CCBN, 5-for-4 split
  split announcement:    HTLD, 3.15-for-2 split


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cognos Inc. - COGN - close: 26.10 change: -0.16 stop: 23.70

Our play of the day for Monday did well with a 3% gain yesterday 
following a rebound that began last week.  However, probably more 
impressive was how shares of COGN put on a display of strength 
this Tuesday by maintaining the $26 level amidst heavy selling 
across Wall Street.  The company has put out a couple of press 
releases regarding new product developments and an alliance with 
WhileLight but we don't see any of them as major movers for the 
stock price.  The MACD is still moving into a bullish position 
but has yet to actually signal a bullish crossover.  The $27 
level is the next obstacle for bulls to overcome.  Any rebound in 
the GSO.X software index will be welcome support for COGN's climb 
higher.  Keep an eye on the GSO.X as it closed right on its 200-
dma.

Picked on January 25th at $25.47
Gain since picked:         +0.63
Earnings Date           04/10/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bearish Play
  ----------------

Citigroup Inc - C - close: 46.71 change: -2.60 stop: 49.25

Company Description:
Citigroup, the preeminent global financial services company with 
192 million customer accounts in more than 100 countries, 
provides consumers, corporations, governments and institutions 
with a broad range of financial products and services, including 
consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, 
insurance, securities brokerage, and asset management. Major 
brand names under Citigroup's trademark red umbrella include 
Citibank, CitiFinancial, Primerica, Smith Barney, Banamex, and 
Travelers. (source: company press releases)

Why We Like It:
The Banking sectors recent gains have come undone as the Enron 
backlash washes across the NYSE and the Nasdaq markets.  
Accounting concerns has propelled investor fears to the forefront 
whether they are real or imaginary.  Companies with any sort of 
weakness on or off the balance sheet are under the gun.  Caught 
squarely in this sell-off is Citigroup.  First of all, Citigroup 
and FleetBoston Financial (FBF) are seen as the two U.S. banks 
with the biggest exposure to Argentina.  FBF was hammered today 
for a 6% loss over more Argentina concerns.  Citigroup has 
already reported its Q4 numbers but in that report was a $470M 
loss in its exposure to the Argentina crisis.  Citigroup is also 
seen at risk due to its exposure to the Global Crossing 
bankruptcy.  Citigroup is one of the senior creditors to this GX 
bankruptcy and we'll likely see more weakness as investors flee 
the stock.  The loss today for C puts the stock price below the 
200-dma and below the recent support at the $48.50 level.  The 
stock should have support at the $45 level but we would expect 
shares to see weakness to its point-and-figure bullish support 
line near $42.  We wouldn't be surprise to see it trade to $40 as 
Wall Street tends to overdue any correction or rally.  We'll 
start the play with a stop at $49.25, which makes it a bit 
aggressive.  A failed rally at $48 might be an entry point if 
shares do bounce from today's close.

Picked on January 29th at $46.71
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           01/17/02 (confirmed)


 



===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Chico's F A S Inc - CHS - close: 29.50 change: -0.62 stop: 26.49

The market sell-off did not discriminate on Tuesday and the 
retail sector felt selling pressure to the tune of 18 points or 
nearly -2%, which brought the RLX.X down to 907.  Bullish 
investors are probably hoping that the 50-dma at 903 and 
potential price support at 900 will stop any further losses.  
Leaders in the group like WMT and TGT lost 1.2% and 2.9% 
respectively.  Closer to home, clothing retailers like AEOS lost 
4.7% and GPS lost 4%.  Thus, Chico's loss of only 2% doesn't look 
so bad today.  Shares actually traded to $28.82 before bouncing 
back into the last hour of trading.  This looks like an 
attractive entry point if it weren't for fears that the market 
drop will continue tomorrow.  We would be very cautious given the 
overall market sentiment and we see no rush to take bullish 
positions.  

Picked on January 25th at $29.55 
Change since picked:       -0.05
Earnings Date           03/05/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 52.48 change: -1.17 stop: 49.99 

Transports stocks fell after a nice rally in the Dow Jones 
Transportation Index up from its 200-dma last week.  This was due 
to overall market weakness as the price of oil per barrel also 
closed lower today.  Likewise, shares of FDX slipped 2% to bounce 
near the $52 level.  We would normally see this as a potential 
entry point for short-term traders but given the overall 
bearishness in the market we would take a wait and see approach 
for new positions.  We're only aiming for a move to $55 for 
shares of FDX.  In the news, FDX came up as one of the major 
corporations that have chosen to drop or are re-evaluating their 
relationships with accounting firm Arthur Andersen.  Andersen is 
the accounting firm currently embroiled in the Enron diaster.

Picked on January 18th at $50.82 
Gain since picked:         +1.66
Earnings Date           03/20/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Pep Boys Man Moe - PBY - close: 15.95 change: -0.10 stop: 14.99

The consolidation in PBY continues to move the stock sideways.  
Yet on days like today, a little sideways trading doesn't sound 
so bad.  We are still waiting for shares to breakout above this 
resistance level between $16 and $16.20.  More conservative 
traders might want to evaluate tighter stops but we are leaving 
ours at $14.99.

Picked on January 18th at $16.00 
Gain since picked:         -0.05
Earnings Date           02/14/02 (unconfirmed)




---

QuadraMed Corp. - QMDC - close: 10.47 change: +0.01 stop: 9.98

Shares of QMDC came close to our tight stop on Monday but a press 
release from the company on Monday afternoon helped keep the 
stock trading above the $10 level.  The press release was a 
reaffirmation of QMDC's 2002 forecast.  The company said that 
their Q4 revenues would be about $34.9 million, up 22 percent 
from a year ago.   They also mentioned that they would release 
earnings shortly after the market close on Feb. 28th, 2002.  The 
stock traded to 11.20 early Tuesday but pulled back during the 
broader market weakness.  We maintain that dips to the $10 level 
might be entry points but given the current market bearishness we 
would be very patient and take a wait and see approach to new 
positions.  

Picked on January 25th at $10.33 
Change since picked:       +0.14
Earnings Date           02/28/02 (confirmed)




---

Trigon Healthcare - TGH - cls: 72.46 chg: -0.23 stop: 69.99 

After the strong move on Friday, TGH has retraced back to the 
$72.25 level.  We don't mind as long as the stock can maintain 
this as new support.  The RXH.X Morgan Stanley Healthcare 
Provider Index hasn't been that strong the last two days but then 
neither has the rest of the market.  We would be cautious in 
entering any new positions.

Picked on January 11th at $71.42 
Gain since picked:         +1.04
Earnings Date           02/08/02 (confirmed)




---

UnitedHealth Group - UNH - cls: 72.95 chg: -1.05 stop: 70.99

Overall market weakness is also affecting the healthcare sector 
and UNH has slipped back under the $73 level during Tuesday's 
session.  Given the current market environment we might look for 
UNH to pull back to $72 before finding support again.  This may 
be a good entry point for new positions but enter cautiously and 
play with a stop.  Personally, we'd take a wait and see approach.  
We see no reason to rush into a long play.

Picked on January 11th at $71.75 
Gain since picked:         +1.20
Earnings Date           01/24/02 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Silicon Valley - SIVB - cls: 22.84 chg: -0.20 stop: 24.00 

Despite 5% drops in both the BKX.X banking index and the BIX.X 
S&P banking index shares of SIVB managed keep its losses to less 
than a quarter.  The stock has been drifting lower after repeated 
failed attempts to conquer its 200-dma but the move lately do not 
inspire our bearish perspective.  Traders should tread carefully 
and keep their stops fresh.

Picked on January 18th at $22.93
Gain since picked:         -0.11
Earnings Date           01/16/02 (confirmed)


 

---

SPDRS S&P 500 - SPY - cls: 110.28 chg: -3.58 stop: 110.60 *new*

Some market pundits would label today's drop as another round of 
Wall Street reaction to the Enron scandal.  Combine that with the 
earnings delay from Williams Energy, the Fed/accounting changes 
pointed at PNC, and the Global Crossing bankruptcy and we have a 
lot more than just Enron (although two of those are definitely a 
ripple effect from Enron's demise).  We came within a nickel of 
our target exit price of $110.00 for this bearish play on the S&P 
500 SPDRS but just not close enough.  We are therefore moving our 
stop down to $110.60 to protect our gains.  However, given the 
overall bearishness in the markets we're going to lift our exit 
price of $110.00 and see just how far the markets might run.  
Conservative investors can leave their exit price at $110.00 or 
consider taking profits now.  More aggressive traders might aim 
for the $108.00 level as a potential exit point for this short 
play, although $110 "should" be significant support.  If I had to 
look into our crystal ball for tomorrow, I would expect to be 
stopped out at $110.60 in a brief market oversold bounce.  
Whether or not it will hold or give way to new selling pressure 
is beyond the power of our scrying device.

Picked on January 9th at $115.57
Gain since picked:         +5.29
Earnings Date                n/a 






===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

P N C Financial Services - PNC - cls: 56.08 chg: -5.79 stop: 59.99

In a post-Enron world, accounting changes can carry a hefty price 
tag.  PNC was advised by the Federal Reserve that the bank needed 
to change its accounting practices concerning PNC's stake in some 
of its subsidiaries.  This move would re-align 2001 earnings by 
reducing its 2001 net income by $155 million, or 53 cents a 
share.  The company wanted to reaffirm that this change would not 
affect 2002 forecasts and still claimed that they would earn 
$4.60 a share.  PNC also claimed that there was no "off balance 
sheet" debt or liabilities.  When this news hit the wires, shares 
of PNC were halted around 11:15 a.m.   When shares started 
trading again the stock opened near $60 and quickly traded lower.  
Thus, we are fortunate that we can close the play at our stop 
loss of $59.99.  PNC ended the day down 9.38%.  It is incidents 
like these that mandate the use of stop losses.

Picked on January 24th at $62.63 
Change since picked:       -2.64
Earnings Date           01/17/02 (confirmed)




---

Wallace Computer Svcs. - WCS - cls: 19.30 chg: -0.88 stop: 19.49

Traders hit the "sell" button during the first half of the day 
for WCS as the broader market gave into earnings and accounting 
rumors running rampant across professional trading desks.  Any 
time rumors surface it can be havoc for retail investors but in a 
post-Enron, post-K-Mart stock market no one wants to be the last 
one holding the bag, or in this case the stock.  WCS only fell 
4.36% but it was enough to erase all of last week's gains.  We 
have not heard of any rumors or negative news for WCS so this 
looks like profit taking during a market-wide sell-off.

Picked on January 25th at $20.35 
Gain since picked:         -0.86
Earnings Date           12/11/01 (confirmed)






==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Maximus Inc - MMS - close: 33.45 change: +0.21 stop: 35.01 *new*

We are seeing new intraday lows for MMS but the stock has been 
resilient and managed to rebound by the close each day this week.  
Considering the weakness in the market today and MMS' strength we 
are going to lower our stop to $35.01 and try to reduce our 
exposure.  The trend is still down but the drop late last week 
was so severe the stock might continue to consolidate sideways 
for a few more days before its next leg down.  Pick your entry 
carefully.  FYI, in the news, MMS picked up another couple of 
smaller contracts worth $4M to $6M each.  It never hurts to add 
more business but in the scope of MMS' yearly sales of more than 
$480M we didn't expect much of a pop in the stock price.

Picked on January 25th at $33.10
Gain since picked:         -0.35
Earnings Date           02/05/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Split Trader - Stock Split (ST) section
==================================================================

=============
Announcements
=============

16th Stock Split for CCBN

California-based Central Coast Bancorp (NASDAQ:CCBN) announced 
that its Board of Directors recently met on Jan. 28th and approved 
a 5-for-4 stock split, or a 25% stock dividend.  

According to CCBN's President and CEO this will be the 16th stock 
dividend (as a split) in the nineteen years of the Company's 
existence (source: press release).  After the split CCBN will have 
8.9 million shares outstanding.

The shareholder record date is February 14th, 2002 with the 
payable date set for February 28th.  Thus, we would expect shares 
to trade at their post-split price on Friday, March 1st.

The stock closed at $23.60 on Monday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=CCBN


About the company
Central Coast Bancorp operates as a holding company for Community 
Bank of Central California. Community Bank, headquartered in 
Salinas, has branch offices located in the Monterey County 
communities of Salinas, North Salinas, Monterey, Seaside, Marina, 
Castroville, Gonzales and King City, in the Santa Cruz County 
community of Watsonville and in the San Benito County community of 
Hollister. The Bank provides traditional deposit, lending, 
mortgage and commercial products and services to business and 
retail customers throughout the California Central Coast area. 
(source: company press release)


---

A Little Extra in HTLD Stock Split.

Squeezing the split phenomenon for all they can, the management of 
Heartland Express, Inc. (NASDAQ:HTLD) has approved a 3.15-for-2 
stock split.  We think accounting must have a penchant for round 
numbers as the new number of outstanding shares, post-split, will 
be 50 million.  

The split, to be enacted as a 58% stock dividend, will be payable 
on February 18th, 2002 to share holders on record of February 8th.
Fractional shares will be paid in cash, according to the press 
release.

The stock closed at $35.05 on Monday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=HTLD


About the company
Incorporated in Nevada, Heartland Express Inc. is the holding 
company that owns Heartland Express, Inc. of Iowa, Heartland 
Equipment, Inc. and A& M Express, Inc.  These business mainly 
operate as a short to medium-haul truckload carriers.
(source: company press release)




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DHI     D.R. Horton Inc            37.45     +0.84
MDC     M.D.C Holdings Inc         39.83     +1.28
RHB     Rehabcare Group            22.80     +0.70
FFCH    First Financial Holdings   26.00     +1.50

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

STAR    Lone Star Steakhouse       18.39     +1.83

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TXN     Texas Instruments Inc      29.96     +1.56
USAI    USA Networks Inc           29.20     +1.56
ROOM    Hotel Reservations Network 54.84     +2.59
EXPE    Expedia Inc.               55.86     +5.10
ISSX    Internet Security System   39.19     +1.20
RIMM    Research In Motion Ltd     23.87     +1.60
TVLY    Travelocity.com            27.77     +1.17

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UN      Unilever                   54.07     -1.06
C       Citigroup                  46.71     -2.60
WFC     Wells Fargo & Co           45.72     -1.43
BAC     Bank Of America            59.20     -4.44
TYC     Tyco Intl. Ltd             33.65     -8.35
IBM     Intl. Business Machines   103.00     -5.15

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PFE     Pfizer Inc                 40.98     -0.59
FITB    Fifth Third Bancorp        61.38     -1.53
KEY     Keycorp                    24.13     -1.12
OHP     Oxford Health Plans Inc    36.55     -1.11
CYN     City National Corp         48.43     -2.49
HHS     Harte-Hanks Inc            28.77     -0.48




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