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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 02/05/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 02-05-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      No deal for economic stimulus package had stocks
                  faltering
Market Sentiment: Defense.
Play-of-the-Day:  No Foreseeable Turnaround Yet

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       2-5-2002            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9685.43 -  1.66  9773.72  9603.99  1.7 bln   1309/1774
NASDAQ   1838.52 - 17.01  1867.94  1828.67  2.0 bln   1417/2117
S&P 100   552.38 -  1.05   558.13   547.32   Totals   2726/3891
S&P 500  1090.02 -  4.42  1100.96  1082.58
RUS 2000  468.82 -  1.27   470.60   465.70
DJ TRANS 2702.43 -  8.81  2717.13  2684.87
VIX        26.91 +  0.06    27.74    25.68
VXN        46.75 -  0.91    47.87    44.99
TRIN        1.80
Put/Call Ratio       .99
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

No deal for economic stimulus package had stocks faltering

Stocks traded in the red for the bulk of today's session with 
healthcare and gold stocks bucking the broader market trend with 
handsome gains.  With about two hours left in the trading 
session, the broader market averages had managed to get back in 
the green and then it happened.  Senate Majority Leader Tom 
Daschle said that neither Democrats nor Republicans would be 
likely to muster the 60 votes needed to pas their stimulus 
proposals.

"With great regret, I will pull the bill tomorrow with the offer 
that should (Republicans) choose at any time to sit down and to 
sincerely want to find some solutions, I'm ready.  We're ready," 
said Daschle.

With that, it took about 15-minutes for the market to get that 
upset stomach feeling and toss back the gains that seemed to take 
such great effort to build late in the day.  By session's end, 
the Dow Industrials (INDU) finished the session down 1 point at 
$9,685, the S&P 500 (SPX.X) buoyed by healthcare and gold stocks 
fell 4 points to $1,090 and the broader NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 
traded lower by 17 points to $1,838 as telecom and wireless 
stocks traded to 52-week lows.

President Bush said he was disappointed in the outcome and 
appeared to blame Senate Democrats for the breakdown.  "I still 
think we need to pass a stimulus bill that will help workers and 
help stimulate the economy.  And you know, we got a good bill out 
of the House and I believe that we had a good change to get a 
good bill out of the Senate last fall," bush told reporters 
outside the White House.

Last year, the Republican-controlled House passed tow separate 
versions of stimulus legislation, but the Senate, where Democrats 
hold a 50-49 edge, failed to agree on its own measure.  President 
Bush included the House-passed version of economic stimulus 
legislation in his fiscal 2003 budget proposal, which was sent to 
Congress Monday.  the package includes accelerated personal 
income tax cuts and other tax relief, which administration 
officials contend would help guarantee a robust U.S. economic 
recovery.

Most active are most down

Tyco International (NYSE:TYC) was the most actively traded stock 
in the market today with over 174 million shares trading hands.  
In yesterday's market wrap we thought that Tyco (TYC) was 
climbing in the proverbial hole win Enron and today's 22.7% 
decline to $23.10 has us rolling down retracement once again.  We 
will take a moment to bow our heads and point out that this one 
did trade the bearish vertical count of $24 from the point and 
figure chart.

Tyco International Chart - Daily Interval




Bulls aren't sticking around for long when shares of TYC undercut 
a previous day's low.  Today's 174 million shares comes close to 
matching recent volume comparisons when the stock was trading 
$30-$35.  With the stock having achieved the bearish vertical 
count from our point and figure chart, I'd be moving stops down 
to $24 (the bearish count) or placing stop just above retracement 
at $29.  The next target for bears looks to be the $19.19 level.

In after hours trading, shares of TYC remained active and are 
trading lower at $22.06.  Yesterday, Tyco said it would replace 
$4.5 billion of its short-term debt with $5.9 billion in bank 
loans to give it more flexibility and shore up its balance sheet.  
The move came after Tyco Capital officials acknowledged they have 
been shut out of the corporate bond market in recent days because 
of accounting worries.  Late today, Tyco Capital said that it, 
too, is tapping its $8.5 billion credit line to buy back 
outstanding short-term corporate debt.  Standard and Poor's along 
with Fitch greeted that move by downgrading the debt of Tyco 
International and its wholly-owned financial subsidiary, Tyco 
Capital.

Also active and not pretty

Almost as if we're reliving Friday's market wrap and things to be 
looking for on the earnings front, earnings played out today and 
for telecom it wasn't pretty.  Telecom stocks WorldCom 
(NASDAQ:WCOM) was the second most active stock traded today and 
fell 14% to yet another 52-week low at $6.97.  Also active in the 
#3 slot were shares of Nextel (NASDAQ:NXTL) slicing to a 52-week 
low and trading as low as $4.31, but finishing the session down 
$25.51% at $5.05.

Investors could get out of Sprint PCS (NYSE:PCS) $10.99 -20.13% 
fast enough today.  Earlier this morning, the company reported an 
earnings loss of $515 million or $-0.32 a share for its 4th 
quarter on revenues of $2.76 billion.  That compared with a loss 
of $515 million, or $-0.53 a share, a year earlier.

Band news for contractors?

Shares of contract manufacturer for some of the "who's who" in 
the telecom equipment segment, Celestica (NASDAQ:CLS) $39.40 -
3.3%, gave the "bearish triangle" pattern on its point and figure 
chart today with a trade at $40 and has us looking bearish toward 
the stock at today's close.  This one may be a good play on the 
broader weakness in telecom and weakness in the networking 
sector.

Celestica Chart - $1 box




Back in August, shares of CLS gave a buy signal at the $29 level 
and completed column of X (demand, upward price movement) gave 
the chart a bullish vertical count of $50.  Shares of CLS came 
close to that bullish vertical count in early December when the 
stock traded a high of $48.40, but today's trade at $40 and 
resulting sell signal "invalidates" the bullish count and has the 
chart looking more bearish near-term with a vertical count of $35 
(could grow if further O's placed in the column).  The "bearish 
triangle" was identified by Professor Earl Davis and has 
probabilities assigned with the pattern.  In a bear market 
environment, the bearish triangle pattern is profitable for the 
bearish trader 87.5% of the time, for an average gain (to the 
downside) of 33.3% in approximately 2.5 months.

The longer-term trend for Celestica (NYSE:CLS) remains bullish 
with bullish support at $38.  A break of that level would have 
the stock breaking bullish support and triggering a triple-bottom 
sell signal.

According to Professor Davis' study, the spread-triple bottom is 
profitable for a bearish trader 86.5% of the time, for an average 
gain of 24.9% in approximately 4.6 months.  With those kinds of 
odds for a bearish trade, we feel this is a stock to have on a 
traders watch list.  

I think shares of CLS are attractive for a 1/2 position short at 
the market, and would add to full position on a break at $38 or 
$37.  For now, would follow with a stop at $45 and target the $29 
level (approximately 23% of $38).

Cisco after the bell

Tomorrow, networking giant Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) reports 
earnings after the close.  Analysts as polled by Multex are 
looking for earnings of $0.05 a share.  Shares of Cisco (CSCO) 
traded up $0.19 or 1.03% today to finish the session at $18.50.  
After-hours trading has been light at the $18.52 level.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Defense.
by Russ Moore

Accounting issues provided the catalyst for a move in to the more 
defensive gold and healthcare sectors as anxious investors listen 
to the Enron saga unfold.

The markets flirted with both sides of breakeven before ending 
with fractional losses. The DOW closed flat while the NASDAQ 
dropped -0.9 percent and the NDX -1.1 percent. Volume was heavy 
with 1.75 billion shares changing hands on the big board and 2.10 
billion on the NASDAQ. Losers triumphed over winners by an 18/13 
margin on the NYSE and 2.10 on the tech index.

Early economic data provided little support for the bounce 
players. January layoff announcements rose +32 percent from 
December as reported by Challenger, Gray and Christmas and the 
ISM non-manufacturing index slipped from 50.1 to 49.6.

In an attempt to distance itself from the Tyco’s and Enron’s, 
General Electric released an unexpected re-affirmation of 02’ 
earnings expectations. The surprise move seemed to spark a modest 
rally however, mid-afternoon news that the economic stimulus 
package would be a no go put a crimp in the upside momentum, 
leaving the markets with an uninspiring performance.

Let’s be realistic, a sustained rally against a backdrop of 
ongoing congressional hearings, a growing list of "suspect" 
earnings announcements, improving but still inconclusive economic 
data, and the "absentee" corporate investor will be extremely 
difficult to achieve. Looks like it’s full chop ahead.


VIX
Tuesday 02/05 close: 26.77


VXN
Tuesday 02/05 close: 46.75


30-yr Bonds
Tuesday 02/05 close: 5.37


Total Put/Call Ratio: .99


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .92


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.49


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 36.31

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/57,678
Maximum puts : 35/59,168

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 38
 20 DMA 39
 50 DMA 39
200 DMA 40

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 43.24 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  27.20 (09/21/01)
38% 37.22
50% 35.31
62% 33.37

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 552.38

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 580/7,582
Maximum puts : 520/9,285

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  566
 20 DMA  574
 50 DMA  581
200 DMA  598

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 600.80 (01/04/02)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 554.05
50% 539.83
62% 525.37

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1090.02

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/26,218
Maximum puts : 1100/27,144
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1117
 20 DMA 1129
 50 DMA 1140
200 DMA 1164

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1176.97 (01/07/02)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1087.63
50% 1060.54
62% 1032.99

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,685.43

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls:  98/12,064
Maximum Puts    90/17,102

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,780
 20 DMA  9,848
 50 DMA  9,929
200 DMA 10,099

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 10,300.15 (01/07/02)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (09/21/01)
38%  9,445.31
50%  9,181.25
62%  8,912.71

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 481.95

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/326
Maximum Puts:  520/532

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 509
 20 DMA 525
 50 DMA 562
200 DMA 546

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 625.15 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  410.54 (09/21/01)
38% 543.17
50% 517.85
62% 494.09

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 540.92

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 660/780
Maximum Puts:  540/505

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 541
 20 DMA 547
 50 DMA 545
200 DMA 554

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 606.88 (01/09/02)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 506.43
50% 475.40
62% 443.85

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 374.07

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 390/690
Maximum Puts:  380/825

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 375
 20 DMA 376
 50 DMA 383
200 DMA 390

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 407.83 (11/26/01)
Relative Low:  353.67 (09/21/01)
38% 384.78
50% 378.88
62% 372.87

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/01. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/15/02     340,005   397,024   (57,019)  (11.7%)
01/22/02     342,841   394,041   (51,700)   (9.3%)
01/29/02     345,583   401,923   (56,340)    9.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/15/02       129,987    64,311    65,676    (5.5%)
01/22/02       125,451    65,423    60,028    (8.6%)
01/29/02       128,826    63,127    63,127     5.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/15/02      32,068    34,859    (2,791)    (58.1%)
01/22/02      30,671    34,103    (3,432)     23.0%
01/29/02      31,577    33,651    (2,974)    (13.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/15/02       10,230     9,782      448    (87.8%)
01/22/02       11,885     8,787    3,098  
01/29/02        9,709     8,293    1,416    (54.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/15/02      15,866     9,175    6,691    (15.7%)
01/22/02      18,152    11,013    7,139      6.6%
01/29/02      19,956    12,171    7,785      9.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/15/02       4,979     8,747    (3,768)    (21.6%)
01/22/02       5,424     8,969    (3,545)     (5.9%)
01/29/02       5,872     9,709    (3,837)     11.1%
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +65,699     +60,028        -56,340    -51,700

Total Open
Interest %       (+34.23%)  (+31.45%)      (-7.54%)   (-6.95%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -3,837     -3,545          +7,785    +7,139
Total Open
interest %       (-24.63%)    (-24.63%)      (+24.23%)  (+24.48)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +1,416      +3,098         -2,074    -3,432

Total Open
Interest %        (+7.86%)   (+14.99%)     (-3.18%) (-5.30%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.On a percentage basis we saw little change in the S&P 
Commercial activity. The Commericals have been fluctuating 
between 4 and 9 percent net-short for months, while the Small 
Specs float between 28 and 38 percent net-long. .

Gold: The gold index (XAU) continued its bullish move this week 
closing at 62.80. We did see the Commercials unload 40 percent of 
their short contracts while still remaining in a net-short 
position.

01/01 14,555 contracts net-short
01/08 24,042 contracts net-short
01/15 53,938 contracts net-short
01/22 50,959 contracts net-short
01/29 31,515 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 01/29 by the CFTC.




=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================

Celestica - CLS - close: 39.40 change: -1.36 stop: 42.85

Company Description:
With 2001 revenues in excess of US $10 billion, Celestica is a 
global operator of a highly sophisticated manufacturing network, 
providing a broad range of services to leading OEMs (original 
equipment manufacturers) in the information technology and 
communications industries. Unrivaled in quality, technology and 
supply chain management, Celestica provides competitive advantage 
to its customers by improving time-to-market, scalability and 
manufacturing efficiency. Celestica has more than 40,000 
employees in over 40 locations in the Americas, Europe and Asia. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The company recently announced earnings at the end of January and 
the No. 3 contract electronics manufacturer in the world didn't 
have a lot of positive comments.  The earnings numbers were lower 
and management tried to be positive with comments about demand 
stabilizing but they were clear that there was no indication of a 
business turnaround yet.  Further comments revealed that they 
expected revenues to continue to slide due to weak demand.  This 
shouldn't be a surprise when you look at their list of customers.  
CLS supplies electronics to hardware guys like Dell Computer 
(DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HWP) and International Business Machines 
(IBM).  They also supply to telecom companies like Lucent 
Technologies (LU) and Nortel Networks (NT).  Other big technology 
customers include Cisco Systems (CSCO), EMC Corp (EMC), and Sun 
Microsystems (SUNW).  Given the state of business for most of 
those corporations one would expect CLS to show some weakness.  
This weakness showed up on Monday with the rest of the market's 
dash for cash and continued today with the stock falling below 
the $40 support level.  Our initial target would be the $35 area 
but we're not going to set an exit point yet and see just how far 
CLS can run, or in this case fall.  We'll start the play with a 
stop a few cents above Monday's high at $42.85.

Picked on February 5th at $39.40
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           01/31/02 (confirmed)






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The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 02-05-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/3920_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Play:      CLS
  Bullish Play Updates:  COGN
  Closed Bullish Play:   NETA

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  CHS, FDX, HRB, PBY, TGH, UNH
  Bearish Play Updates:  C, SIVB

High Risk / High Reward
  Bearish Play Updates:  GE, QCOM

Split Trader
   - none -

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

===============
NB New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bearish Play
  ----------------

Celestica - CLS - close: 39.40 change: -1.36 stop: 42.85

Company Description:
With 2001 revenues in excess of US $10 billion, Celestica is a 
global operator of a highly sophisticated manufacturing network, 
providing a broad range of services to leading OEMs (original 
equipment manufacturers) in the information technology and 
communications industries. Unrivaled in quality, technology and 
supply chain management, Celestica provides competitive advantage 
to its customers by improving time-to-market, scalability and 
manufacturing efficiency. Celestica has more than 40,000 
employees in over 40 locations in the Americas, Europe and Asia. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The company recently announced earnings at the end of January and 
the No. 3 contract electronics manufacturer in the world didn't 
have a lot of positive comments.  The earnings numbers were lower 
and management tried to be positive with comments about demand 
stabilizing but they were clear that there was no indication of a 
business turnaround yet.  Further comments revealed that they 
expected revenues to continue to slide due to weak demand.  This 
shouldn't be a surprise when you look at their list of customers.  
CLS supplies electronics to hardware guys like Dell Computer 
(DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HWP) and International Business Machines 
(IBM).  They also supply to telecom companies like Lucent 
Technologies (LU) and Nortel Networks (NT).  Other big technology 
customers include Cisco Systems (CSCO), EMC Corp (EMC), and Sun 
Microsystems (SUNW).  Given the state of business for most of 
those corporations one would expect CLS to show some weakness.  
This weakness showed up on Monday with the rest of the market's 
dash for cash and continued today with the stock falling below 
the $40 support level.  Our initial target would be the $35 area 
but we're not going to set an exit point yet and see just how far 
CLS can run, or in this case fall.  We'll start the play with a 
stop a few cents above Monday's high at $42.85.

Picked on February 5th at $39.40
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           01/31/02 (confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cognos Inc. - COGN - close: 27.37 change: +0.33 stop: 25.47

Not a bad performance this week for COGN.  The software group has 
been under a lot of pressure and the GSO.X has fallen through 
significant support levels.  Surprisingly, COGN has been strong 
enough to shrug off this negative peer pressure.  This is exactly 
the kind of leadership we like to see.  Hopefully, if the GSO.X 
can bounce or reverse course then any upside move in COGN will be 
magnified.  While we are feeling positive about COGN's strength 
we do feel that it may be best to add an exit point.  We 
mentioned that $29.50 looks like a good exit point in the weekend 
letter and we're going to make that official.  Chart watchers 
should note that COGN might be dealing with some price congestion 
in this area from the previous January/February time frame in 
2001.  Although there is a strong camp of investors who would 
dismiss this possible resistance as being way to old to affect 
current prices.  

Picked on January 25th at $25.47
Gain since picked:         +1.90
Earnings Date           04/10/02 (unconfirmed)





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Network Associates - NETA - cls: 27.11 chg: -1.54 stop: 27.98

The breakdown in the software sector (GS0.X) this week has 
weighed heavily on shares of NETA.  Last night we raised our stop 
loss to $27.98 to try and reduce our exposure but still give NETA 
a chance to rebound.  Unfortunately, the stock quickly fell this 
morning and stopped us out early in the day.  NETA is quickly 
approaching its 50-dma at $26.23 and if that doesn't hold as 
support then shares will likely trade to $25.  We had expected a 
lot more strength for a stock hitting new highs but investors are 
taking profits off the table during this "crisis of confidence" 
the media keeps harping about.

Picked on February 1st at $30.26
Gain since picked:         -2.28
Earnings Date           01/17/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Chico's F A S Inc - CHS - cls: 31.15 chg: +1.93 stop: 27.95

The 6.6% gain today in shares of CHS today were fueled by a very 
robust January sales report.  According to the Chico's press 
release their January sales for the four-week period ending 
February 3rd, 2002 rose 26.8% over the five-week period for last 
year's January sales.  That's a pretty strong move for a retail 
store in an economy coming off the bottom of a recession.  The 
news also said that January's same store sales were up 22.4% 
while fiscal year comparable store sales were up 17.1%.  Numbers 
like these will give investors confidence that the company should 
be able to follow through on their earnings projections.  In 
times where Wall Street and Main Street are worried about 
earnings this is good news indeed.  The stock actually traded 
near $32 late in the afternoon before slipping back from its 
highs.  This is a new high for the stock putting it above recent 
resistance.  Yesterday we raised our stop to 27.95 to reduce any 
exposure with the market looking weak and for the moment we're 
going to leave it there.  However, more conservative traders 
might consider adjusting their stops below the $28.75 area.

Picked on January 25th at $29.55 
Gain since picked:         +1.60
Earnings Date           03/05/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 54.50 change: +1.37 stop: 51.89

Fedex is another stock that has been able to weather the recent 
market weakness like a champ.  The stock merely traded sideways 
Friday and Monday while continuing to bump up against resistance 
at $54.00.  Today's move of +2.57% puts shares above this 
resistance on strong volume of 2.4 million shares.  Part of the 
boost could have been reaction to FDX's press release that they 
now have 90% coverage of the U.S. homes for their Home Delivery 
service.  This is possible with 31 new home delivery offices 
opening up this month.  FDX's relative strength is good 
encouragement for the bulls in the face of the sudden drop in the 
Dow Transports the last three sessions.  The stock came within a 
dime of our exit price of $55.00.  Individual investors may want 
to adjust both their stops and their target if you feel 
comfortable with FDX's performance.  We are going to leave our 
target at $55.00 and if shares trade there tomorrow we'll close 
the play for a $4.18 move or +8.2%.

Picked on January 18th at $50.82 
Gain since picked:         +3.68
Earnings Date           03/20/02 (unconfirmed)




---

H R Block - HRB - close: 46.50 chg: +0.65 stop: 44.25

Did you see their commercial during the Superbowl?  It wasn't the 
most entertaining but it made sense.  Americans are all about 
ease and comfort.  We did feel a lot more comfortable come Monday 
since we had a trigger point that HRB had to trade to before we 
were hypothetically long the stock.  Aggressive traders could 
have used Monday's dip as an entry, which was not that bad and 
actually produced a new higher low above its rising 15-dma.  
Tuesday's trading was a continuation of that Monday afternoon 
rebound.  Late in the session today shares of HRB traded to 
$47.10 which triggered our entry at $47.01.  Now we are in the 
play with a stop at $44.25.  We're not excited that the stock 
retreated back under the $47 level but we're not concerned.  
Actually a dip to anywhere above $45 might be a good entry for 
more active traders.  

Picked on February 5th at $47.01 
Gain since picked:         -0.51
Earnings Date           02/27/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Pep Boys Man Moe - PBY - close: 15.56 change: -0.34 stop: 15.35

We are apprehensive about the recent trading action for PBY.  The 
stock's inability to hold the $16 level is understandable given 
the broader market weakness.  However, the weakness in the last 
hour of trading today looks pretty negative.  PBY dipped to 
within five cents of our stop before bouncing into the close.  If 
shares trade back above the $16.00 level we might be interested 
in new positions but we fully expect to be stopped out tomorrow 
for a loss.  

Picked on January 18th at $16.00 
Gain since picked:         -0.44
Earnings Date           02/14/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Trigon Healthcare - TGH - cls: 76.99 chg: +2.60 stop: 73.95 *new*

As you know, market weakness tends to push investors into 
defensive stocks or "safe havens" as they are sometimes called.  
Typically one of those sectors is healthcare.  We are finally 
starting to see an accelerated move into the group this week with 
two very strong volume days for TGH.  Additionally, we think 
TGH's 3.49% gain today was in part influenced by Oxford Health's 
positive earnings report (OHP) as we predicted.  OHP's earnings 
beat estimates and they raised their guidance for 2002.  We did 
not hear anything about TGH CFO Tom Byrd's appearance on Monday 
so his statements were probably not that surprising for analysts.  
It is easy to see that shares of TGH are overbought short-term 
but we feel that shares may eventually trade near $80.  Short-
term or conservative traders may want to look into raising their 
stop very tight or actually taking profits and trying to pocket 
the +5.50 or +7.5% move.  We are going to raise our stop but not 
so high we might get stopped out before TGH trades $80.  Keep in 
mind, after today's move, the odds of a pull back Wednesday are 
pretty high.  We would look for a possible dip to $75.00 before 
shares trade higher again.  Yet just in case we are going to 
apply an exit price of $79.75.  If shares trade there for any 
reason we'll close the play assuming we haven't been stopped out 
first. Our new stop will be $73.95.

Picked on January 11th at $71.42 
Gain since picked:         +5.57
Earnings Date           02/08/02 (confirmed)




---

UnitedHealth Group - UNH - cls: 75.00 chg: +1.10 stop: 71.75

UNH is also benefiting from the flight to defensive sectors like 
healthcare.  Monday's pull back was not that deep for UNH and the 
stock quickly moved higher today with positive earnings news from 
Humana (HUM).  HUM announced its earnings last night after the 
bell.  The company, which is another managed health provider like 
UNH, reported Q4 profits that were up 32% over the year before.  
It looks like UNH will be able to conquer the $75 level this 
week.

Picked on January 11th at $71.75 
Gain since picked:         +3.25
Earnings Date           01/24/02 (confirmed)






  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Citigroup Inc - C - close: 44.80 change: +0.50 stop: 48.01

Our bearish play in Citigroup is working out as expected.  The 
stock fell 5% on Monday as investors ran for cover in a market-
wide dash.  The weakness we saw in the banking sectors on Friday 
has continued into Tuesday although C did rebound off its low 
today.  Don't forget that the stock has bullish support at the 
$42 level on its point-and-figure chart.  Short-term traders may 
want to look for an exit there (FYI, the stock hit a lot of 
$43.15 today).  The rest of us will follow our stops down and see 
if C can trade to the $40 level.  On Monday we lowered our stop 
to $48.01.  If shares can close back under the $44 level we'll 
probably lower the stop again.  It wouldn't hurt to consider an 
exit price of $40.50 or $40.25 at this time.

Picked on January 29th at $46.71
Gain since picked:         +1.91
Earnings Date           01/17/02 (confirmed)


 

---

Silicon Valley - SIVB - cls: 22.01 chg: -0.32 stop: 23.51 *new*

The $22 support level is proving to be a hard nut to crack for 
the bears.  SIVB has bounced there multiple times over the last 
three weeks and the bears just can't get past it.  Lack of 
conviction from the sellers during a volatile week and weakness 
in the banking sector has encouraged us to lower our stop.  We're 
adjusting it to $23.51, which should reduce our exposure to 58 
cents.  New positions might be consider at a failed rally near 
$23.30 or a breakdown under $21.80 or a close under $22.

Picked on January 18th at $22.93
Gain since picked:         +0.92
Earnings Date           01/16/02 (confirmed)


 



==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

General Electric - GE - close: 36.21 change: +1.21 stop: 37.51

We have to give credit to the Public Relations/Investor Relations 
team(s) at GE.  They immediately recognized that GE was a target 
for the rumor mill since they are the biggest conglomerate on the 
planet.  So what do they do?  They immediately come out with 
positive remarks and with their trained parrot, CNBC, to spread 
the word they had a ready audience.  Truthfully, it was a pretty 
smart move.  GE's management commented on the Q1's first few 
weeks saying business is right on track.  They reaffirmed their 
confidence in the 2002 numbers and one press release said they 
would meet or beat Q1 estimates.  The secondary round of investor 
relations stories were focused on GE's financial controls in an 
effort to soothe any investor fears that GE isn't the next Enron.  
Thus, with the largest company in the world on guard against the 
rumormongers we would take a big step back before pressing 
forward with a short-play on the stock.  We're still going to 
watch it for any weakness under the $37 level but the close over 
$36 was a positive sign for the bulls.  

Picked on February 4th at $35.00 
Gain since picked:         -1.21
Earnings Date           01/17/02 (confirmed)




---

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 39.81 change: -0.98 stop: 42.05 *new*

In the last two days the IXTCX, combined telecom index, has 
collapsed from 202 to 180 while the YLS.X wireless index has 
dropped from 79 to 70.  QCOM has dropped as well but at a slower 
velocity.  Even though we were expecting more of a move for QCOM 
we're are encouraged that shares did close below the round-number 
psychological level of $40.  Additionally, QCOM's relative 
strength point-and-figure chart against the S&P 500 has just 
moved into a column of O's (another bearish sign).  QCOM is 
quickly approaching its October lows near $38.  Short-term 
traders may want to consider taking profits when shares trade to 
this support level.  On the other hand, we feel that QCOM and the 
wireless sector could continue to fall a lot farther.  We are 
going to protect our capital by lowering the stop to $42.05.

Picked on February 1st at $42.46 
Gain since picked:         +2.65
Earnings Date           01/24/02 (confirmed)






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

GTIV    Gentiva Health Services    25.05     +0.65
ESE     Esco Technologies Inc      36.03     +1.22

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

         ...none.. 

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SYK     Stryker Corp               60.86     +2.01
NEM     Newmont Mining             25.07     +1.17
AU      Anglogold Ltd              23.68     +1.37
ESRX    Express Scripts Inc        47.80     +2.50
OHP     Oxford Health Plans Inc    38.02     +1.99
CPS     Choicepoint Inc            54.56     +1.02
HB      Hillenbrand Industries     61.40     +4.41

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

NOK     Nokia Corp Ads             21.50     -1.14
TYC     Tyco Intl. Ltd             23.10     -6.80
V       Vivendi Universal          39.62     -1.73
JPM     JP Morgan Chase & Co       29.02     -1.54
DUK     Duke Energy Co             33.00     -1.10
BK      Bank Of New York           37.70     -1.01

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

EMR     Emerson Electric Co        54.55     -2.03
NETA    Network Associates         27.11     -1.54
VAL     The Valspar Corp           40.34     -1.19
BWA     Borg Warner Inc            54.00     -0.78




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