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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 02/07/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Thursday 02-07-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Technicals looking DEFENSIVE
Market Sentiment: Confidence crumbling.
Play-of-the-Day:  Imminent Breakout

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
       2-7-2002            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9625.44 - 27.95  9743.05  9624.12  1.4 bln   1403/1681
NASDAQ   1782.10 - 30.61  1824.07  1781.73  2.0 bln   1384/2124
S&P 100   548.69 -  1.51   555.82   547.24   Totals   2787/3805
S&P 500  1080.17 -  3.34  1094.03  1078.44
RUS 2000  458.40 -  4.01   463.14   458.09
DJ TRANS 2604.60 - 17.38  2633.08  2604.60
VIX        27.33 -  0.87    28.53    26.52
VXN        50.90 +  1.84    51.11    49.14
TRIN         .68
Put/Call Ratio       .85
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Technicals looking DEFENSIVE

Despite some economic data that continues to show some improvement 
or stability on the economic front, the technicals of the major 
market averages still look very defensive and suspect to lower 
prices ahead.  Tonight we're going to take a look at the major 
market averages, discuss the potential downside risks and identify 
levels where things may turn more bullish.  For now, our stance 
would be for any bullish traders to stay very short-term focused 
and bearish traders to continue to pick away at stocks in the tech 
arena that break critical support levels or have bearish chart 
patterns associated with their charts.

Lets start with the most widely follow market average in the Dow 
Jones Industrials (INDU).  The current bearish vertical count that 
traders/investor should be assessing downside to is the $9,050 
level and resistance looks firm at the $9,950 level.  Today, the 
Dow Industrials shed 28 points to close at $9,625.  Current 
risk/reward assessment for a bullish trade would be $-575 risk, to 
$325 reward.  In my book, this is not favorable for any type of 
bullish trades except shorter-term traders that can quickly adapt 
to a changing market environment.

Dow Industrials Chart - $50 box




The double bottom sell signal back in January (O column falling 
below a prior O column) at the $9,900 level as seen two failed 
rally attempts at that level and currently looks to be firm 
resistance.  With investor confidence somewhat shaky due to all of 
the Enron hearings being broadcast on television and other media 
outlets, brief intra-day rallies are still finding sellers.  
Longer-term trend remains bullish at the $9,350 level, but if we 
were to see a break of that trend, then further downside would 
most come to the $9,050 level.  We will note that retracement 
we've been using on our bar chart would show a retracement support 
level at $9,460, which also correlates pretty close with the 
bullish support trend of the point and figure chart.

Dow Industrials Chart - Daily Interval




Bar chartists may find very close correlation with support and 
resistance levels identified in the point and figure chart, with 
levels found from conventional retracement.  The past three 
sessions, the Dow Industrials have been able to hold the $9,600 
level.  If we were to see a trade below that level, I do believe a 
rather quick decline to the $9,460 level is possible.  Near-term, 
I feel that bears are going to press the issue and try to push the 
Dow Industrials lower and further put pressure on investor 
psychology and get the bulls to cave in.

As harsh as this may seem, I do feel that bulls were warned back 
in December when the bullish percent charts were at or above 
"overbought levels."  

The broader NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) now looks to be in free-fall 
mode and yesterday's "lack of visibility" from Cisco Systems 
(CSCO) is starting to have technology investors looking for the 
door.

NASDAQ Composite Chart - Daily Interval




The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite continues to have trouble holding 
a previous sessions low and the "external" technicals continue to 
look weak.  It seems so evident now how our warnings back in 
December that the NASDAQ-100 Bullish Percent ($BPNDX) was 
signaling "overbought" and how important it was for traders of 4-
lettered stocks to be tightening up their stops in bullish trades.  
That was very close to the $1,973 level and here we are at $1,782.  
What is rather concerning is how the NASDAQ Composite Bullish 
Percent ($BPCOMPQ) from www.stockcharts.com is nowhere close to 
what would be considered "oversold" levels based on historical 
readings.  

Unless there is some type of bullish market event like the capture 
of terrorist Osama Bin Laden, I do not see a near-term catalyst 
for a meaningful move much above the $1,868 level.  I would once 
again exercise extreme caution for stock in this index, 
particularly those with loftier valuations.

What bothers me most for bulls trying to swim against what is 
looking more and more like a powerful river current running south 
is the still rather high levels of the NASDAQ Composite Bullish 
Percent ($BPCOMPQ).  As of tonight, roughly 44.10% of the stocks 
in this market currently hold a buy signal on their point and 
figure charts.  The internals look week and are still at a 
relatively high level.  In late January, this indicator turned 
back into a column of O's and as history has shown, followed the 
faster moving NASDAQ-100 Bullish percent into "bear confirmed" 
status.

NASDAQ-Composite Bullish % Chart - 2% box 




I still here some analysts in the media saying that the NASDAQ 
Composite is "oversold."  According to the above point and figure 
"bullish percent" chart, an "oversold" reading wouldn't come until 
a reading of 30% or lower.  Today's action has the bullish % 
reading on the broader NASDAQ at 44.10% so there is still 
substantial internal weakening that could occur.  The bullish 
percent for the NASDAQ Composite still dictates a very defensive 
posture.  Very short-term trading rallies can be found, but until 
we see some type of upward (X column) reversal, the defensive team 
should be on the playing field.

Only the broader New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Composite ($BPNYA) 
finds its bullish percent chart in a bullish phase.  The Bullish 
Percent for the NYSE ($BPNYA) currently has a reading of 50.22% of 
the stocks in that market holding a buy signal on their point and 
figure charts.  Should we see a reading of 48%, this part of the 
market would then turn back into a "bear confirmed" status.

On hold

Right now, I like our play list as it is and am wanting to move 
more into a "preservation" of capital mode from the bullish side 
of things.  I am very pleased with the recent decision of trading 
out of one "HMO stock" in Trigon Healthcare (NYSE:TGH) $77.23 
+0.29, and rolling to "HMO stock" PacifiCare Health Systems 
(NASDAQ:PHSY) $21.26 +4.98%.  

Tomorrow, I think bearish traders should have a very close eye on 
our "tech short" play in Celestica (NYSE:CLS).  Today's trading 
was an "inside day" and I believe a break below yesterday's low 
could have the stock seeing some hefty downside action.  

Please!  Do not over leverage.  Stay within your discipline and do 
not trade abnormally short in any one stock.  Celestica (CLS) is 
an OEM for Cisco (CSCO).  I do think some short-term bulls may 
decide to exit their positions near-term as Cisco (CSCO) basically 
gave flat guidance for the upcoming quarter and did not give 
further guidance.  Shares of CLS did rally from the $23 level in 
September and looks to be rolling over.  Bulls in the stock are 
undoubtedly looking at other technology stocks take a beating and 
a break of today's low could have bulls in the stock looking for 
the exits.

As you can see from our play list, all of our "tech long" plays 
have been stopped out and losses kept rather small.  We have one 
technology long still in play in Cognos (NASDAQ:COGN) $27.10 
+2.65%, but we are going to move our stop up under the trade as 
the broader NASDAQ market action dictates.  If the market loves 
the stock, then we won't get stopped out, but if the broader 
NASDAQ negativity prevails, we'll let the stock sell itself as it 
triggers our stop.  This takes the emotion out of our trade under 
current market conditions; this is a very good thing.

For educational information on the "inside day" or "bullish 
percent" understanding, please visit the "Bailey's Basics" section 
of the site.  The "inside day" trading technique is at the top of 
the list and the bullish percent educational piece is near the 
bottom under the heading "Understanding risk is key."

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician

To view these two Bailey Basic's articles click below:

Understanding Risk Is Key
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/education/baileysbasics/110800_6.asp

The "Inside Day" Trading Technique
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/education/baileysbasics/092701_1.asp


================
Market Sentiment
================

Confidence crumbling.
Russ Moore

Investors are having a tough time determining in whom they should 
place their trust. Who can blame them? After all, the Enron 
scandal has brought to light an apparent "web of deceit" which 
stretched from the boardroom down to Wall Street.

What’s it going to take to restore investor confidence? There’s 
no easy answer however, a visible improvement in the economy and 
time are the likely candidates. We’re already seeing signs of, 
dare I say it, "bottoming" in the economy and once the Enron dust 
has settled, many of the disenchanted investors will start to 
test the waters again. In the meantime, we’re probably in for the 
same type of action witnessed over the last three months. Since 
November 1, 2001, the S&P 500 has spent 31 days going up, and 32 
days going down.

Today’s performance was more of the same with a modest rally 
attempt on the DOW getting trampled on late in the day. The index 
finished with a loss of -0.3 percent. The NASDAQ struggled 
throughout the session, giving up -1.7 percent. The NDX slipped -
2.2 percent. Volume was solid with 1.42 billion shares trading on 
the NYSE and 1.96 billion on the NASDAQ. Losers outpaced winners 
by a 17/14 margin on the big board and 21/14 on the tech index.

Today’s economic data had a positive slant, with initial jobless 
claims continuing their descent, and consumer credit falling $5.1 
billion dollars. The encouraging data was offset by the "limited 
visibility over the short-term" comment from Cisco CEO, John 
Chambers. Investors chose to focus on the negative, rather than 
the positive, understandable, given the current market 
environment. We can expect that trend to continue until the Enron 
issue is put to bed.


VIX
Thursday 02/07 close: 27.68


VXN
Thursday 02/07 close: 51.01


30-yr Bonds
Thursday 02/07 close: 5.42


Total Put/Call Ratio: .85


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .77


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.15


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 35.19

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/56,136
Maximum puts : 35/55,721

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 37
 20 DMA 38
 50 DMA 39
200 DMA 40

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 43.24 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  27.20 (09/21/01)
38% 37.22
50% 35.31
62% 33.37

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 548.69

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 580/7,973
Maximum puts : 520/9,420

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  561
 20 DMA  570
 50 DMA  580
200 DMA  597

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 600.80 (01/04/02)
Relative Low:  480.07 (09/21/01)
38% 554.05
50% 539.83
62% 525.37

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1080.19

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/26,862
Maximum puts : 1100/24,846
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1108
 20 DMA 1122
 50 DMA 1137
200 DMA 1163

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1176.97 (01/07/02)
Relative Low:   944.75 (09/21/01)
38% 1087.63
50% 1060.54
62% 1032.99

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,625.44

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls:  98/12,208
Maximum Puts    90/20,484

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,756
 20 DMA  9,800
 50 DMA  9,916
200 DMA 10,091

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 10,300.15 (01/07/02)
Relative Low    8,062.34 (09/21/01)
38%  9,445.31
50%  9,181.25
62%  8,912.71

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 457.21

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/326
Maximum Puts:  520/606

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 494
 20 DMA 515
 50 DMA 556
200 DMA 545

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 625.15 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  410.54 (09/21/01)
38% 543.17
50% 517.85
62% 494.09

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 515.96

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 580/2,137
Maximum Puts:  500/2,175

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 542
 20 DMA 541
 50 DMA 546
200 DMA 553

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 606.88 (01/09/02)
Relative Low:  343.93 (09/27/01)
38% 506.43
50% 475.40
62% 443.85

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 367.28

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 390/690
Maximum Puts:  380/825

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 372
 20 DMA 375
 50 DMA 381
200 DMA 390

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 407.83 (11/26/01)
Relative Low:  353.67 (09/21/01)
38% 384.78
50% 378.88
62% 372.87

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/01. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/15/02     340,005   397,024   (57,019)  (11.7%)
01/22/02     342,841   394,041   (51,700)   (9.3%)
01/29/02     345,583   401,923   (56,340)    9.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/15/02       129,987    64,311    65,676    (5.5%)
01/22/02       125,451    65,423    60,028    (8.6%)
01/29/02       128,826    63,127    63,127     5.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/15/02      32,068    34,859    (2,791)    (58.1%)
01/22/02      30,671    34,103    (3,432)     23.0%
01/29/02      31,577    33,651    (2,974)    (13.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/15/02       10,230     9,782      448    (87.8%)
01/22/02       11,885     8,787    3,098  
01/29/02        9,709     8,293    1,416    (54.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/15/02      15,866     9,175    6,691    (15.7%)
01/22/02      18,152    11,013    7,139      6.6%
01/29/02      19,956    12,171    7,785      9.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/15/02       4,979     8,747    (3,768)    (21.6%)
01/22/02       5,424     8,969    (3,545)     (5.9%)
01/29/02       5,872     9,709    (3,837)     11.1%
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +65,699     +60,028        -56,340    -51,700

Total Open
Interest %       (+34.23%)  (+31.45%)      (-7.54%)   (-6.95%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -3,837     -3,545          +7,785    +7,139
Total Open
interest %       (-24.63%)    (-24.63%)      (+24.23%)  (+24.48)
                 net-short   net-short     net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +1,416      +3,098         -2,074    -3,432

Total Open
Interest %        (+7.86%)   (+14.99%)     (-3.18%) (-5.30%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.On a percentage basis we saw little change in the S&P 
Commercial activity. The Commericals have been fluctuating 
between 4 and 9 percent net-short for months, while the Small 
Specs float between 28 and 38 percent net-long. .

Gold: The gold index (XAU) continued its bullish move this week 
closing at 62.80. We did see the Commercials unload 40 percent of 
their short contracts while still remaining in a net-short 
position.

01/01 14,555 contracts net-short
01/08 24,042 contracts net-short
01/15 53,938 contracts net-short
01/22 50,959 contracts net-short
01/29 31,515 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 01/29 by the CFTC.




=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================

UnitedHealth Group - UNH - close: 75.10 change: +0.50 stop: 71.75

Company Description:
UnitedHealth Group is a diversified health and well-being company 
that provides a broad spectrum of resources and services to help 
people improve their health and well-being through all stages of 
life. (source: company press release)

- ORIGINAL WRITE UP: January 11th, 2002 -

Why We Like It:
Another healthcare player that some of the analysts in our office 
think might be a winner is UNH.  Shares have been working through 
a lot of congestion near the $70 level but at the same time it 
looks like it has been building support between $68 and $68.50.  
MACD has bottomed near the zero line and is about to turn 
bullish.  We also like the bullish pattern on the point-and-
figure chart for UNH.  More conservative players may want to wait 
for shares to actually conquer the $72.50 level but we think dips 
back to $70 may be entry points as well.  We're also going to 
play this one with a relative tight stop at $68.49.  We don't 
have an earnings date yet but we expect an announcement in late 
January.

- Most Recent Update: February 7th, 2002 -

Another healthcare play, UNH continues to coil under the $75 
level.  We are expecting an upside breakout very soon.  Shares 
have been trading so tightly that conservative players can look 
at a move under the 10-dma (near $74) as a short-term breakdown.  
Longer-term players may still want to look for a pull back to $72 
but it may not occur in the near future.  We would consider a 
bounce at $74 a strong potential entry for a short-term play.  
There are a couple of more healthcare companies announcing 
earnings next week and they might add a little more emphasis to 
any upside moves if they are as positive as the last round of 
announcements.

- Play-of-the-Day Comments: February 7th, 2002 -

With investors fleeing to defensive issues and shares of UNH 
coiling in a way that makes us believe a breakout is imminent it 
shouldn't be a surprise to see the stock as our play of the day 
for Friday.  Once shares breakout above $75, its next level of 
resistance will likely be near the $77.50 area.  Our ultimate 
goal is currently the $80 mark.

Picked on January 11th at $71.75 
Gain since picked:         +3.35
Earnings Date           01/24/02 (confirmed)






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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Thursday 02-07-2002
                                                     section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/8881_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  COGN
  Bearish Play Updates:  CLS

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  CHS, HRB, PHSY, UNH
  Bearish Play Updates:  C, SIVB
  Closed Bullish Play:   FDX

High Risk / High Reward
  Bearish Play Updates:  QCOM
  Closed Bearish Play:   GE

Split Trader
  announcement:          TRR, 3-for-2 stock split

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) / Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cognos Inc. - COGN - close: 27.10 change: +0.70 stop: 26.37*new*

Time and again in our play write ups and our market commentary we 
discuss how even a good stock can fall if the market or sector 
comes under selling pressure.  We believe this may begin to occur 
in COGN.  Shares of the software company have been very strong 
the last couple weeks when in contrast the GSO.X software index 
has fallen eight out of the last ten sessions.  When a sector is 
sinking it can become a lead weight around the neck of even the 
strongest swimmers.  COGN looks like it's about to run out of 
strength.  It hasn't happened yet but we are going to raise our 
stop to just under today's low.  This should protect a very small 
gain in the play but more importantly it should protect capital.  
If and when the software sector can find a bottom then COGN might 
be a good stock to watch for an entry point.  At this time, we 
would expect COGN to find some support at its 30-dma near $26.00 
but if that fails then the $24 level might support it.  Looking 
at the GSO.X, we see that it is very short-term oversold and 
overdue for a bounce but it may continue to fall to the 160 level 
(another four points) before finding any strength.

Picked on January 25th at $25.47
Gain since picked:         +1.63
Earnings Date           04/10/02 (unconfirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Celestica - CLS - close: 38.82 change: -0.74 stop: 42.85

The market's reaction to CSCO's earnings report is not a good 
sign for CLS or for the market as a whole for that matter.  As we 
mentioned in the initial write up, CLS is an OEM for CSCO and 
several of the largest tech companies in business.  With the 
Nasdaq gunning for six down days in a row it is easy to see that 
investors are running from tech issues.  The last couple of 
sessions have shown CLS fail twice at a rally attempt back over 
the $40 level.  We feel that today's move merely confirms the 
breakdown from Tuesday and we should see CLS trading to $35 over 
the next week or two.  If you're still looking for confirmation 
then a close under $38 would be another possible entry point but 
we'd prefer to short it here now that is has failed at $40 again.  
More conservative traders could use a tighter stop near the 
$40.00 to $40.50 area if they want to reduce risk.

Picked on February 5th at $39.40
Gain since picked:         +0.58
Earnings Date           01/31/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) Non-tech stock section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Chico's F A S Inc - CHS - cls: 32.01 chg: +0.73 stop: 28.98 *new*

While we have already received the January sales numbers for CHS, 
the majority of the retail world released their January sales 
numbers today and they were good.  A few retailers are raising 
their guidance due to the strength of business.  Since the 
consumer is such a large part of GDP this should be a very 
positive sign for the economy.  However, despite the great report 
investors still hit the sell button and WMT, S, and TGT were all 
trading lower while ANN and even the beleaguered GPS posted 
gains.  Chico's also posted a nice gain but ended well off its 
intraday high of $32.99.  We are going to bump up our stop to 
$28.98 but more conservative traders can certainly play with a 
tighter stop.  We're also going to add an exit price of $34.75 
and if shares trade there intraday over the next week or two 
we'll close the play.  Traders still looking for an entry point 
might consider a dip to the $31 level.  FYI, keep an eye on the 
RLX.X.  It has slowly been drifting down to its 50-dma, which has 
been a rally point for bulls in the recent past.

Picked on January 25th at $29.55 
Gain since picked:         +2.46
Earnings Date           03/05/02 (unconfirmed)




---

H R Block - HRB - close: 46.79 chg: -0.16 stop: 44.25

HRB keeps trying to post gains but the stock seems to have 
trouble holding on to them by the close.  Shares reached to 
$47.88 today but failed to hold even the $47 level.  Nevertheless 
we are still optimistic on the play and feel the high lows that 
HRB has been building is indicative of current buying 
interesting.  On Wednesday, HRB came out with a positive press 
release that should help boost revenues as well as strengthen 
their weaker quarters.  The tax preparation giant is branching 
out to offer more services.  This year when Americans begin to 
stream into their local HRB office to file their taxes they'll 
see a host of new services like financial planning, mortgages, 
brokerage services and wealth management.  A dip to $46 might be 
a good entry point and conservative investors might want to 
consider adjusting their stops under the 15-dma to reduce their 
risk.  We're leaving ours at $44.25.

Picked on February 5th at $47.01 
Gain since picked:         -0.21
Earnings Date           02/27/02 (unconfirmed)




---

PacifiCare Health - PHSY - cls: 21.26 chg: +1.01 stop: 18.75*new*

Our new addition to the long play list is off to a strong start 
today.  Shares of PHSY powered higher for a 4.98% gain after 
breaking out above the $20 resistance level.  If you missed the 
Wednesday write up we would encourage you to check it out as we 
discuss why the stock is climbing and while also discussing the 
additional risks associated with PHSY.  A pull back to $20 should 
be buyable but closing near the high of the day is a strong side 
for another rally attempt tomorrow morning.  We are considering 
an exit point near $23.25, which is just under the early November 
high.  We have bumped out stop up 50 cents to $18.75.

Picked on February 6th at $20.25  
Change since picked:       +1.01
Earnings Date           02/13/02 (confirmed)




---

UnitedHealth Group - UNH - cls: 75.10 chg: +0.50 stop: 71.75

Another healthcare play, UNH continues to coil under the $75 
level.  We are expecting an upside breakout very soon.  Shares 
have been trading so tightly that conservative players can look 
at a move under the 10-dma (near $74) as a short-term breakdown.  
Longer-term players may still want to look for a pull back to $72 
but it may not occur in the near future.  We would consider a 
bounce at $74 a strong potential entry for a short-term play.  
There are a couple of more healthcare companies announcing 
earnings next week and they might add a little more emphasis to 
any upside moves if they are as positive as the last round of 
announcements.

Picked on January 11th at $71.75 
Gain since picked:         +3.35
Earnings Date           01/24/02 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Citigroup Inc - C - close: 44.14 change: +0.14 stop: 47.01 *new*

Citigroup and both the banking indices (BIX.X and BKX.X) all 
posted small gains today but don't let the numbers fool you.  All 
three of them appear to have actually signaled a failed rally at 
their 5-dma's.  Additionally, C is developing resistance at the 
$45.25 level.  We still believe that C will continue its descent 
and just one of the reasons that may help it trade lower is its 
involvement in the Enron scandal.  According to reports hitting 
the newswires today, Citigroup along with a "who's who of 
finance" including J.P. Morgan, Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse 
First Boston were all limited partners in what will surely become 
known as the infamous LJM2 Co-Investment Fund.  If you were 
watching the Enron hearings on T.V. today you may have heard 
about the LJM2 deal.  This was the Enron partnership that was 
producing an annual return of almost 60% for its investors.  We 
doubt that Citigroup as a corporation will have any liability 
from the LJM2 deal but public opinion and investor confidence can 
be hard to regain.  Remember that two of the major reasons were 
are playing C is the backlash to C's exposure to Enron, which is 
about $1 billion, and its exposure to the Argentina crisis, which 
is worth about $1.3 billion in capital and $6 billion in assets 
and loans.  However, of its Enron risk about $650 million was 
secured debt to Enron.  There were also a number of unsecured 
loans to the energy giant.  Citigroup has already taken a write 
down to the tune of $228 million in Enron losses but this only 
represents 50% of its unsecured exposure.  And let's not forget 
about C's exposure to the Global Crossing bankruptcy.  We are 
going to lower our stop to $47.01 but wouldn't be against a 
tighter stop.  The $46.50 or $46.00 level look like good ideas.

Picked on January 29th at $46.71
Gain since picked:         +2.57
Earnings Date           01/17/02 (confirmed)


 

---

Silicon Valley - SIVB - cls: 21.80 chg: +0.63 stop: 23.01 *new*

It has finally occurred.  The breakdown under the $22 support 
level has finally happened for SIVB.  The stock dropped early on 
Wednesday morning and spent most of the day trading near $21.20.  
Shares rebounded with the banking sectors today but traded right 
to previous support at $22 before rolling over again.  Very 
conservative traders may consider a tight stop near $22.20.  We 
are going to be a bit more aggressive and moves ours down to 
$23.01.  We're still looking for a drop to $20 and our exit price 
of $20.05 is still good.

Picked on January 18th at $22.93
Gain since picked:         +1.13
Earnings Date           01/16/02 (confirmed)


 



===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Play 
  --------------------

Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 51.78 change: -1.48 stop: 51.89

Seeing an easy mark, Morgan Stanley decided to hit FDX with a 
downgrade while the Dow Transports index continues to fall from 
its failed rally at the 2800 level.  Fedex had been holding up 
rather well during the last couple of session where the 
Transports had been showing weakness.  Well Wednesday showed that 
traders were willing to take some profits after the recent run up 
from the last bounce off the 50-dma.  The Premier newsletter came 
within ten cents of hitting our exit price of $55.00 on Tuesday 
but today's gap down stopped us out.  Morgan Stanley issued a 
"neutral" rating from an "out perform" and stated they felt all 
the short-term good news was in the stock.  In response, FDX 
gapped down to $52.45 and then traded shortly thereafter through 
our stop at $51.89.  This closes the play with a positive move of 
$1.07.  At this point we wouldn't be surprised to see FDX trade 
to the $50 level.  

Picked on January 18th at $50.82 
Gain since picked:         +1.07
Earnings Date           03/20/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 39.11 change: -1.49 stop: 42.05 

Has the next leg down for QCOM started again?  Both the IXTCX 
combined telecom index and the YLS.X wireless index posted 
marginal gains while QCOM lost yet another 3.6%.  This is the 
first close under the $40 level since its October closing low of 
$38.46.  A glance at the 30-minute interval chart shows how the 
stock has been struggling with the $41 level the last three days 
and today's session shows selling pressure picking up into the 
close.  Today's drop comes after two pieces of positive news hit 
the wires today.  One was word that QCOM struck a deal with 
Verizon Wireless (VZ) for VZ to launch new applications on QCOM's 
BREW platform.  Secondly, there was a positive article about QCOM 
by BusinessWeekOnline, which tried to make the argument that QCOM 
may be a buy for long-term investors.  The author proceeded to 
make several positive observations about QCOM's future business.  
We don't doubt that QCOM will be a major player in the wireless 
market for the foreseeable future and the market environment will 
eventually turn around.  However, in the meantime, short-term 
traders like ourselves should be able to benefit by playing the 
trend.  At the moment, that trend is down.  If you're looking at 
a possible bearish play but want more confirmation wait for QCOM 
to drop under the $39 level.  We would expect a possible move to 
the $35 level but October's low could act as support.  Currently, 
the newsletter is up about 7.8% on the play.

Picked on February 1st at $42.46 
Gain since picked:         +3.35
Earnings Date           01/24/02 (confirmed)





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Play 
  --------------------

General Electric - GE - close: 37.20 change: +0.24 stop: 37.51

We have to say that GE's quick reaction to the mere suggestion 
that they might be next on the accounting questions list has 
worked - at least temporarily.  Remember, we never actually 
suspected that GE may have accounting issues but were merely 
trying to play the suggestion that the largest conglomerate in 
the world might have some tough to understand accounting issues.  
Shares have rallied right to overhead resistance at the previous 
support between $37.50 and $38.00.  We had our stop on the lower 
end of that range and have been stopped out.  The stock my still 
be susceptible to weakness if the broader markets continue to 
drop out from under GE.

Picked on February 4th at $35.00 
Gain since picked:         -2.51
Earnings Date           01/17/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
Split Trader - Stock Split (ST) section
==================================================================

=============
Announcements
=============

TRR Adds 3-for-2 Split with Earnings 

After the close of the market today, TRC Companies, Inc (NYSE:TRR) 
announced their Q2 earnings report for 2002.  The company boasted 
strong revenue and earnings growth and announced a 3-for-2 stock 
split.

TRR's Board of Directors approved the 3-for-2 stock split for 
shareholders on record of February 19th, 2002.  The payable date 
for the split will be March 5th, which means we can probably 
expect TRR to trade at its new post-split price on Wednesday, 
March 6th.

The stock closed at $37.35 on Thursday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=TRR


About the company
TRC provides technical, financial risk management and construction 
services to industry and government, primarily in the United 
States market. The Company's main focus is in the areas of 
infrastructure improvements and expansions, environmental 
management and power development and conservation. (source: 
company press release)



==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

JNY     Jones Apparel Group Inc    34.18     +2.08
PNW     Pinnacle West Capital      41.63     +0.64
TGIC    Triad Guaranty Inc         41.60     +1.10

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AG      Agco Corp                  16.56     +1.55
IDXC    IDX Systems Corp           12.66     +1.13
AVID    Avid Technology Inc        12.70     +1.18
WNC     Wabash National Corp       10.07     +1.44
IDN     Intelli Check Inc          14.46     +1.38

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

NVS     Novartis                   36.09     +1.05
JNY     Jones Apparel Group Inc    34.18     +2.08
WON     Westwood One Inc           33.22     +1.12
OHP     Oxford Health Plans Inc    39.60     +1.86
STZ     Constellation Brands Inc   49.92     +1.92
ANN     Ann Taylor Stores Corp     40.94     +2.86

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DNA     Genentech Inc              46.90     -1.08
LEH     Lehman Brothers            58.47     -1.38
TJX     TJX Companies Inc          37.00     -2.97
IDPH    IDEC Pharmaceuticals       51.95     -1.35
WHR     Whirlpool Corp             63.46     -2.04
ADRX    Andrx Corp                 50.27     -4.78

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

LOW     Lowe's Companies Inc       43.58     -1.58
FDX     Fedex Corp                 51.78     -1.48
JCI     Johnson Controls Inc       80.85     -3.28
CDN     Cadence Design Systems     22.81     -0.74
CTX     Centex Corp                56.00     -1.49



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