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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 02/13/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 02-13-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      I would if I could, but I can't so I won't
Watch List:       NTAP, IP, KLAC, CMNT, WMAR, AL, PGR
Market Sentiment: Spending on retail, not on stocks.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
02-13-2002               High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9989.67 +125.93  9998.25  9856.99 1.09 bln   1520/1560
NASDAQ   1859.16 + 24.95  1862.42  1844.12 1.59 bln   1708/1804
S&P 100   567.79 +  5.28   569.64   562.51   Totals   3228/3364
S&P 500  1118.51 + 11.01  1120.56  1107.50
RUS 2000  476.33 +  4.32   476.33   472.01
DJ TRANS 2711.59 - 19.17  2744.14  2702.93
VIX        22.44 -  1.07    23.60    22.14
VXN        44.17 -  1.28    45.59    44.08
TRIN        0.93
PUT/CALL    0.76
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

I would if I could, but I can't so I won't

It's so true that a good trader or investor's best attribute is 
patience.  Patience should not be misconstrued as complacency as 
complacency by a trader or investor can be harmful if an 
investment gets too far away from you.

Today's market action looks bullish on the surface and I'd really 
like to say that some type of break took place, but things still 
look range bound with many technicals still yet to give bulls or 
bears any hint that the markets are willing to extend any type of 
move up or down.

In essence, I would love to say that something meaningful 
happened today, but I can't, so I won't.  Unfortunately, you and 
I can't dictate the outcome of a market trend.  Instead, we play 
the hand that is dealt, try to put ourselves on the bullish side 
of strength or shorting areas of weakness.

In last night's wrap, we talked quite a bit about some of the 
"inside days" that had developed in several stocks.  Only two of 
those actually saw some type of move from their inside days at 
action points, the others whipped around and even on a very 
short-term basis once again solidifies the thought that market 
direction will most likely be mixed near-term.  The two stocks 
that actually showed some type of move from their inside days 
were Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) $41.90 +3.45%, but the gain from the 
action point of $41.25 (just above yesterday's high) to the close 
would have resulted in a 1.5% gain.  That would have matched the 
gain found in the NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X), which QCOM is a component 
of.  On the downside, shares of Tyco International (NYSE:TYC) 
$29.35 -3.77%, may have found a trader taking action early this 
morning on the break just below yesterday's low of $30.15, and by 
sessions end a bearish trader would be holding a small gain of 
2.6%.

Shares of Tyco International (NYSE:TYC) actually traded in 
positive territory ahead of the company's 01:00 EST conference 
call with investors, but turned negative when the company gave 
March-quarter earnings per share guidance of $0.65-$0.68.  That 
looked to be below consensus estimates of $0.78 a share.  Shares 
of Tyco (TYC) traded as low as $28.10 on the session, but did 
recover some ground after Merrill Lynch noted that TYC said it 
had not recognized any revenues from the swapping of capacity in 
its sub sea fiber optic cable business.  In respect to the 
company's guidance of $0.65-$0.68 per share earnings in Q2, 
Merrill said those numbers were inline with its expectations as 
Merrill had not factored in any "sub sea cable revenue" to begin 
with.  Merrill felt investors could buy the stock at current 
levels, but expect negative news flows to hinder the shares.

In my opinion, I don't know how any of these accountants, 
financial analysts, or investors can grasp the concept for 
"recognition" of sub sea fiber optic cable to begin with.  I 
still feel that any money put to work in Tyco (long or short) had 
better be done with discipline and the only way I would be able 
to do it is using some technical analysis techniques like the 
"inside day."  Other than that, there are several thousand other 
stocks to choose from that don't necessarily have some of the 
"negative news flows" impacting your investment.  
Trading/investing in Tyco (TYC) at this point is not for the 
faint at heart.

Challenges still ahead

Today's 125 point gain in the Dow Industrials (INDU) was 
impressive and perhaps gives even the bearish of bears some idea 
that even they need to be doing some trading or be willing to see 
some decent gains slip away in a relatively short amount of time.  
I don't expect bulls to have an easy time of things at the 
$10,077 level as there we find two potential levels of technical 
resistance.

Dow Jones Industrials Average (INDU) - Daily Interval




There's a nice wedge forming on the bar chart of the Dow 
Industrials, and we see a starting-to-round-lower 200-day moving 
average just ahead at $10,077 and that would also correlate with 
our downward trend from the summer highs.  I would expect this to 
be some formidable resistance near-term.  A close above the 
$10,077 level will most likely see a run to the $10,300 level or 
close to our 61.8% retracement level.  In today's 01:30 update, 
we made note of the triple-top buy signal and today's close above 
the $9,950 level is promising for the bulls near-term.

To get to the $10,300 level, bulls are going to need some type of 
participation that just wasn't found today from the Dow 
Transportation Average (TRAN).  We mentioned last night that this 
group did manage to get back above its 200-day moving average, 
but today 0.70% decline to $2,711 lacks the bullishness I feel an 
optimistic bull wanted to see.  

Dow Transportation Average Chart - Daily Interval




Today's action in the transports shouldn't necessarily deflate an 
economic bull's ideas of recovery, but the continued hovering at 
downward trend dating back to May of 1999 and lack of 
participation in today's broader market rally isn't filling any 
party balloons with helium.  This group had better get a move on 
or to get some bears off of things.

Today's retail sales number and mention that higher gasoline 
prices accounted for the bulk of the 1.2% rise in retail sales 
probably had a negative impact on the transports today.  In this 
morning's 09:00 update we mentioned that sales at gas stations 
rose 5.1% due to higher fuel prices.  The bears are going to 
point to the 1.2% rise as a falsehood of any underlying economic 
strength and who can argue with that?  If we take out the 
gasoline sales, overall retail sails (which includes food stores 
and restaurants) would have fallen 0.6% in January.

The bullishness found in today's retails sales number was that 
spending was rather well diversified across several "categories" 
of stores and retail sales compared to a year ago were up 2.8%.  
Economists have been barking that the consumer has continued to 
spend at a relatively healthy level despite the economy having 
stumbled into a recession last March, but may now be exhibiting 
some very early signs of a recovery.

Lehman Brothers' economist Drew Matus felt the 1.2% rise in 
today's retail sales number now means that most economists will 
be looking for a 1.5% rise in the gross domestic product (GDP) 
for the first quarter of the year.  The GDP numbers are not 
scheduled for release until April 26th and market consensus prior 
to today was for a Q1 rise in GDP of just 0.7%.

If Mr. Matus is correct and GDP is thought to be running at 
nearly double the consensus estimates, then those Transports 
should see business picking up and helping offset some of the 
higher fuel prices found in January.  

A transport with a "hidden" catalyst

On February 9th, we added shares of Airborne Inc. (NYSE:ABF) 
$16.02 +1.39% to our bullish play list.  The stock managed to 
buck the transportation blues today and this stock still offers 
what I feel is a relatively "low risk/ high potential return" 
type of trade (see play description).  The "hidden catalyst" may 
be partially found in Teamster union negotiations that are 
currently underway with United Parcel Services (NYSE:UPS) $56.68 
-0.03%.  In 1997, a two-week strike by 185,000 Teamsters cost UPS 
millions of dollars, crippling the Atlanta-based package delivery 
giant.  A 5-year contract was eventually agreed upon and that 
contract expires July 31st.  Teamster President James P. Hoffa 
said the union intends to negotiate a historic agreement that 
will increase wages, maintain a high level of health care 
benefits, increase pensions and create 3,000 full-time jobs from 
part-time position.

I don't know about you, but I'm thinking that UPS doesn't turn 
over the pocket book of benefits in a still relatively stagnant 
economic environment.  Should contract talks reach a stalemate, 
customers of UPS may set up some shipping agreements away from 
UPS just in case things end in a strike.  This type of thinking 
can be tested going forward and perhaps will give a buy side bias 
toward our Airborne (ABF) play going forward.  

Airborne Inc. Chart - Daily Interval




I don't think "overhead" supply is an excuse for shares of 
Airborne Inc. (ABF) to stay held in check from a nice bullish 
move.  I didn't have enough room on the chart to show it, but 
you'd have to go back to July 21, 2000 to find overhead supply 
above the $15.92 level (50% retracement).  If the Transports 
(TRAN) break free of that downward trend, then I'm looking for 
shares of ABF to lead a charge.  I like the way retracement seems 
to fit current and past ranges of trading.  With the stock 
closing above the 50% retracement level, that gives bulls some 
targets to shoot for at $17.73.  Better yet, it gives some bears 
a level to assess risk against.  In a mixed market, we're looking 
for anything we can get in a bullish trade.  Now ABF bulls just 
need a little help from their friends.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


==========
Watch List
==========

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

----------

Network Appliance - NTAP - close: 19.34 change: +2.89

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of NTAP exploded higher today after 
announcing earnings last night after the market close.  Analysts 
responded positively and shares gained almost 18% by the end of 
the day.  We see the $20 level as strong resistance on both the 
daily and the point-and-figure charts bolstered by the 50-dma 
overhead.  While over the next couple of weeks, if the markets 
cooperate, we would expect NTAP to trade towards the $25 mark 
some profit taking at $20 would not be out of the question.  
Thus, we'd look for a potential entry if shares pull back to the 
$18 level.  On the other hand, if bulls keep the momentum rolling 
then the high-volume breakout today may not stop until share 
reach $22.00 - $22.50 and then we'd look for a pull back to the 
$20 level.  What we're saying is don't chase it and wait for a 
dip.




---

International Paper - IP - close: 44.50 change: +1.03

WHAT TO WATCH: With all the recent positive economic reports 
hitting the streets lately, it is not a surprise to see investors 
buying up shares of IP.  The big breakout over the $42 level was 
a key move for IP.  However, before you get too excited, IP is 
not a "big mover" and the +$3 gain in the last several sessions 
is a lot and shares may need to consolidate.  We'd look for a 
pull back to the $43 level as a potential entry point with a 
tight stop but realize it may take a few weeks to garner any sort 
of move worthwhile.




---

KLA-Tencor Corp - KLAC - close: 61.29 change: +3.88

WHAT TO WATCH: The earnings report by AMAT last night helped the 
entire semiconductor sector move higher on Wednesday.  Within 
that move we noticed that KLAC gained 6.75% to breakout above the 
$60 resistance level.  Shares still have some congestion under 
$61 but the high volume rally was pretty impressive and we think 
shares will continue to make gains.  We're pretty cautious about 
playing tech stocks long in this environment but traders may want 
to keep an eye on KLAC for the right entry point.




---

Computer Network Technology - CMNT - close: 15.71 change: -1.23

WHAT TO WATCH: We really wanted to play CMNT short on Tuesday and 
we're upset that we didn't.  The company had come out with some 
earnings news early this week that said Q4 earnings would be 
lower despite a 29% increase in revenues.  That's not what 
investors want to hear and shares have fallen quickly from the 
$19-$20 level it was trading near on Monday.  The close below $16 
today is pretty bearish and we would look for shares to fall to 
their 200-dma near $13.50.




---

West Marine, Inc - WMAR - close: 19.10 change: +1.79

WHAT TO WATCH: This specialty retailer for boating supplies is 
expected to announce earnings tomorrow on Feb. 14th.  It would 
appear that the earnings are likely to be positive and just maybe 
someone already knows about it.  The stock powered ahead over 10% 
today and broke through overhead resistance at the $18 level.  
Shares had already been building on a bullish trend and while 
we'd like to look for the right pull back to consider a long play 
we don't want to get caught in a sell-the-news sort of event 
after the earnings are released.  Traders may need to put this on 
their watch list and check on it for the next few days to see how 
the market reacts to its earnings report.  The high-volume move 
today is impressive and aggressive bulls might want to look for a 
dip back to $18.




---

Alcan, Inc - AL - close: 39.20 change: +1.02

WHAT TO WATCH: Metal stocks have been coming into investors' 
focus for a couple of weeks now.  There's been a lot of interest 
in gold stocks with the price of the metal trading back over the 
$300 mark. However, there has also been a lot of interest in 
other metal-related equities and Premier is already doing well 
with its play on PD.  Another metal stock you may want to watch 
is AL.  The stock has just pierced its bearish resistance line on 
the point-and-figure chart and the daily shows the stock moving 
higher from its 200-dma.  We still see the $40 level as potential 
resistance but a close over $40 may be a signal to consider a 
long play.




---

Progressive Corp - PGR - close: 152.90 change: +4.91

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this insurance giant have been range 
bound between $140 and $150 for weeks but the stock produced an 
upside breakout today on strong volume.  The point-and-figure 
chart also shows and upside breakout so it looks like a "buy".
The problem is shares are mighty expensive at $150/share and 
traders might want to look at playing options on it.







================
Market Sentiment
================

Spending on retail, not on stocks.
by Russ Moore

Consumer spending was responsible for a green arrow day on Wall 
Street. This morning’s retail report provided strong evidence 
that the public has not lost its’ appetite for shopping. However, 
the robust retail action doesn’t seem to be carrying over on to 
Wall Street, as volume levels remain very weak.

The DOW closed with a gain of +1.3 percent while the NASDAQ added 
+1.4 percent and the NDX +1.5 percent. Volume on the NYSE was 1.2 
billion shares. The NASDAQ saw 1.58 billion shares change hands. 
Advancers lead decliners by a margin of 20/11 on the big board 
and 20/15 on the tech index.

Broad market action saw retail, finance, cyclical and oil service 
sectors finish with strong gains. Over on the tech side chips and 
hardware were the top performers.

Volatility levels continue to slide but still have a ways to go 
before the warnings bells go off.

We’ll probably be hearing lots of talk about the psychological 
10,000 level on the DOW. Yes, a break through that level may 
provide a little more umph behind the current uptrend however, 
until we see commitment in the form of dollars, significant 
headway will be a major challenge. 


VIX
Wednesday 02/13 close: 22.44


VXN
Wednesday 02/13 close: 44.17


30-yr Bonds
Wednesday 02/13 close: 5.46


Total Put/Call Ratio: .76


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .60


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.40


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 36.95

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 37/59,231
Maximum puts : 35/60,066

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 36
 20 DMA 37
 50 DMA 39
200 DMA 39

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 43.24 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  34.97 (02/08/02)
38% 38.13
50% 39.11
62% 40.10

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 567.79

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 575/7,369
Maximum puts : 500/9,477

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  559
 20 DMA  566
 50 DMA  578
200 DMA  596

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 600.80 (01/04/02)
Relative Low:  546.13 (01/30/02)
38% 567.00
50% 573.44
62% 579.99

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1118.50

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/23,344
Maximum puts : 1100/20,878
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1103
 20 DMA 1114
 50 DMA 1134
200 DMA 1161

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1176.97 (01/07/02)
Relative Low:  1077.78 (02/06/02)
38% 1115.67
50% 1127.37
62% 1139.27

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,989.67

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls:  96/12,019
Maximum Puts    90/20,342

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,796
 20 DMA  9,781
 50 DMA  9,920
200 DMA 10,077

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 10,300.15 (01/07/02)
Relative Low    9,529.46 (01/30/02)
38%  9,823.86
50%  9,914.80
62% 10,007.28

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 518.70

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 460/372
Maximum Puts:  560/530

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 492
 20 DMA 507
 50 DMA 548
200 DMA 545

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 625.15 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  450.20 (02/07/02)
38% 517.03
50% 537.67
62% 558.66

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 569.30

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 580/1,257
Maximum Puts:  540/  735

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 545
 20 DMA 538
 50 DMA 548
200 DMA 551

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 606.88 (01/09/02)
Relative Low:  499.09 (01/22/02)
38% 540.26
50% 552.98
62% 565.91

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 380.99

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 390/690
Maximum Puts:  380/825

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 374
 20 DMA 375
 50 DMA 380
200 DMA 390

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 403.83 (11/26/01)
Relative Low:  365.22 (02/08/02)
38% 379.93
50% 384.51
62% 389.17

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/08. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/22/02     342,841   394,041   (51,700)   (9.3%)
01/29/02     345,583   401,923   (56,340)    9.0%
02/05/02     347,583   401,569   (53,986)   (4.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/22/02       125,451    65,423    60,028    (8.6%)
01/29/02       128,826    63,127    63,127     5.1%
02/05/02       128,235    64,404    63,831     1.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/22/02      30,671    34,103    (3,432)     23.0%
01/29/02      31,577    33,651    (2,974)    (13.3%)
02/05/02      32,357    35,405    (3,048)       2.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/22/02       11,885     8,787    3,098  
01/29/02        9,709     8,293    1,416    (54.2%)
02/05/02       10,416     8,173    2,243     58.2%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/22/02      18,152    11,013    7,139      6.6%
01/29/02      19,956    12,171    7,785      9.0%
02/05/02      21,868    12,068    9,800     25.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/22/02       5,424     8,969    (3,545)     (5.9%)
01/29/02       5,872     9,709    (3,837)     11.1%
02/05/02       5,764    10,528    (4,764)     24.2%
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +63,831     +65,699        -53,986    -56,340

Total Open
Interest %       (+33.13%)  (+34.23%)      (-7.21%)   (-7.54%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -4,764     -3,837          +9,800   +7,785
Total Open
interest %       (-29.24%)    (-24.63%)      (+28.88%)  (+24.48)
                 net-short   net-short       net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +2,243      +1,416         -3,048    -2,074

Total Open
Interest %        (+12.07%)   (+7.86%)     (-4.50%) (-3.18%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Very little change in Commercial activity. Keep in mind 
that we are looking for an increase in diversion between 
Commercials and Small Specs. 

Gold: Commercials were busy adding to their net-short positions 
this week while gold continued to move higher. The precious metal 
seems to be attracting a lot of attention these days perhaps as a 
result of the growing weakness in the Japanese markets. 

01/08 24,042 contracts net-short
01/15 53,938 contracts net-short
01/22 50,959 contracts net-short
01/29 31,515 contracts net-short
02/05 58,180 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 02/05 by the CFTC.




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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Wednesday 02-13-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/3700_2.asp
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In section two:

NetBulls (tech stocks)
  Closed Bullish Play:   COGN

Stock Bottom (non-tech stocks)
  Stop Adjustments:      PD
  Closed Bearish Plays:  C, SIVB
  
Split Trader (stock splits)
  Announcements:         CUB announces 3-for-1

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  -------------
  Bullish Plays
  -------------

Cognos Inc. - COGN - close: 29.45 change: +0.78 stop: 27.98 

Markets rallied higher again and this time technology stocks 
joined them.  The GSO.X software index doesn't tell the whole 
story as it continues to trade sideways.  Fortunately for 
software investors the industry leader started seeing buying 
pressure again and MSFT added 2.67% with a strong rally off 
support.  Of course this play was on COGN, not MSFT, which has 
been out performing both MSFT and the GSO.X.  Shares of COGN 
sprinted higher on very strong volume of 942K shares.  COGN 
traded to 29.65, which pushed it through our exit price of 
$29.50.  Therefore we are closing the play with a move of $4.03 
or +15.8%.  We still like COGN as a bullish play and fully expect 
shares to surpass the $30 level but right now the stock looks a 
bit extended and due for a pull back.  Odds of it seeing profit 
taking as it approaches the $30 resistance level are high.  
Interested traders may want to keep an eye on it and wait to see 
if shares pull back to rebuild new higher support at $28.

Picked on January 25th at $25.47
Gain since picked:         +4.03
Earnings Date           04/10/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
StockBottom/Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

STOP adjustments
----------------

   ------------
   Bullish Play
   ------------

Phelps Dodge - PD - close: 38.08 change: +1.72 stop: 34.75 *new*

Yesterday we talked about how traders should watch the copper 
futures for a move over to the $0.74 cent level.  We also 
mentioned that a breakout over it would be very bullish for PD.  
Bullish traders were rewarded with a 4.73% gain in PD as copper 
futures rocketed to 75-cents on Wednesday.  This jumped PD over 
its 200-dma to close over potential resistance at $38.  Jeff and 
I do think PD will continue to trade higher but a pull back to 
$36.50 would not be out of the question and a possible entry 
point for traders looking for a new position.  We are raising our 
stop to $34.75.  However, and probably more important, we are 
setting our exit price on PD to $39.85.  If shares trade at or 
above this price we'll close the play for a profit.  Volume was 
pretty strong today so we could see another up day before short-
term profit taking hits the share price (but that's being 
hopeful).

Picked on February 11th at $36.07
Change since picked:        +2.01
Earnings Date            01/30/02 (confirmed)






===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  -------------
  Bearish Plays
  -------------

Citigroup Inc - C - close: 45.35 change: +0.20 stop: 46.15 

Last night we lowered our stop on Citigroup to a more 
conservative $46.15 to protect us from an upside breakout should 
the banks and the markets rally higher.  If you noticed, the 
banks (BIX.X and BKX.X) did rally higher as did the markets.  
However, Citigroup did not significantly make gains and remains 
below the $46 resistance level.  Unfortunately, earlier in the 
day, the stock did trade to $46.15 (what a coincidence) and thus 
we have been stopped out of the play.  Citigroup's lack of 
participation in the market's and the banking sector's rally is 
probably indicative of investor's lack of faith in the company's 
short-term prospects.  It would not surprise us to see C trading 
near $40 in the next few weeks but for the time being we'll be 
watching from the sidelines.  

Picked on January 29th at $46.71
Gain since picked:         +0.56
Earnings Date           01/17/02 (confirmed)


 

---

Silicon Valley - SIVB - cls: 23.77 chg: +1.37 stop: 23.01 

Unlike Citigroup above, Silican Valley Bancshares did rally with 
the banking sector and they rallied strongly with a 6% gain.  
Shares powered higher on strong volume and closed near their high 
for the day.  SIVB actually closed above its 200-dma, which is a 
bullish indicator.  Shares still remain under resistance of $24 
but the strength of today's rally may be strong enough to break 
through it.  We were stopped out when shares traded through 
$23.01 for an eight cent loss.  

Picked on January 18th at $22.93
Gain since picked:         -0.08
Earnings Date           01/16/02 (confirmed)


 




==================================================================
Split Trader - Stock Split (ST) section
==================================================================

==============
Announcements
==============

Intraday Breakout On 3-for-1 Split for CUB

During a bullish session on Wall Street today, the Cubic Corp 
(AMEX:CUB) announced that at its annual shareholder meeting, its 
Board of Directors had approved a semi-annual dividend of 19-cents 
a shares plus a 3-for-1 stock split.

Shares immediately jumped higher on the news.

The dividend is payable on March 16th, 2002 for shareholders on 
record of February 18th.  The payable date for the stock split was 
not set as it needs to be approved by shareholders.

Management will set a special shareholder meeting to approve the 
split and set a payable date.

The stock closed at $49.75 on Tuesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=CUB


About the company
The Cubic Transportation Systems Group designs and manufactures 
automatic fare collection systems for public mass transit, 
including rail and buses throughout the world. The Cubic Defense 
Group provides instrumented air and ground combat training 
systems, battle command training simulations, and simulation 
support for U.S. and allied military forces. The group also 
produces high technology avionics, data links and communications 
products for government and commercial customers and provides a 
wide range of technical and logistics services. (company press 
release)




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BA      Boeing Co                  44.90     +1.75
NSANY   Nissan Motor Co Ltd        11.93     +0.78
DYN     Dynegy Inc                 23.20     +0.86
AYE     Allegheny Energy Inc       35.37     +0.63
NBR     Nabors Industries Inc      32.49     +0.70

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ODP     Office Depot Inc           18.49     +2.30
NTAP    Network Appliance Inc      19.34     +2.89
IDCO    Interactive Data Corp      16.50     +1.15
EVC     Entravision Comm.          14.85     +2.65
INRG    Inrange Technologies       15.39     +1.49

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AVE     Aventis                    72.49     +3.26
AMAT    Applied Materials Inc      47.96     +3.25
MU      Micron Technology          39.01     +1.21
CSG     Cadbury Schwepps           26.46     +1.03
AL      Alcan Inc                  39.20     +1.02
PGR     Progressive Corp          152.90     +4.91

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

RTRSY   Reuters Group              47.05     -1.46
ICST    Intergrated Circuit Sys    20.15     -2.20
AHG     Apria Healthcare Group     22.29     -1.33
FHRX    First Horizon Pharma.      26.00     -2.90

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

        ...n/a...



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