PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 02-13-2002 section 1 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/3700_1.asp ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: I would if I could, but I can't so I won't Watch List: NTAP, IP, KLAC, CMNT, WMAR, AL, PGR Market Sentiment: Spending on retail, not on stocks. ----------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Market Numbers ----------------------------------------------------------------- MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 02-13-2002 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 9989.67 +125.93 9998.25 9856.99 1.09 bln 1520/1560 NASDAQ 1859.16 + 24.95 1862.42 1844.12 1.59 bln 1708/1804 S&P 100 567.79 + 5.28 569.64 562.51 Totals 3228/3364 S&P 500 1118.51 + 11.01 1120.56 1107.50 RUS 2000 476.33 + 4.32 476.33 472.01 DJ TRANS 2711.59 - 19.17 2744.14 2702.93 VIX 22.44 - 1.07 23.60 22.14 VXN 44.17 - 1.28 45.59 44.08 TRIN 0.93 PUT/CALL 0.76 ----------------------------------------------------------------- =========== Market Wrap =========== I would if I could, but I can't so I won't It's so true that a good trader or investor's best attribute is patience. Patience should not be misconstrued as complacency as complacency by a trader or investor can be harmful if an investment gets too far away from you. Today's market action looks bullish on the surface and I'd really like to say that some type of break took place, but things still look range bound with many technicals still yet to give bulls or bears any hint that the markets are willing to extend any type of move up or down. In essence, I would love to say that something meaningful happened today, but I can't, so I won't. Unfortunately, you and I can't dictate the outcome of a market trend. Instead, we play the hand that is dealt, try to put ourselves on the bullish side of strength or shorting areas of weakness. In last night's wrap, we talked quite a bit about some of the "inside days" that had developed in several stocks. Only two of those actually saw some type of move from their inside days at action points, the others whipped around and even on a very short-term basis once again solidifies the thought that market direction will most likely be mixed near-term. The two stocks that actually showed some type of move from their inside days were Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) $41.90 +3.45%, but the gain from the action point of $41.25 (just above yesterday's high) to the close would have resulted in a 1.5% gain. That would have matched the gain found in the NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X), which QCOM is a component of. On the downside, shares of Tyco International (NYSE:TYC) $29.35 -3.77%, may have found a trader taking action early this morning on the break just below yesterday's low of $30.15, and by sessions end a bearish trader would be holding a small gain of 2.6%. Shares of Tyco International (NYSE:TYC) actually traded in positive territory ahead of the company's 01:00 EST conference call with investors, but turned negative when the company gave March-quarter earnings per share guidance of $0.65-$0.68. That looked to be below consensus estimates of $0.78 a share. Shares of Tyco (TYC) traded as low as $28.10 on the session, but did recover some ground after Merrill Lynch noted that TYC said it had not recognized any revenues from the swapping of capacity in its sub sea fiber optic cable business. In respect to the company's guidance of $0.65-$0.68 per share earnings in Q2, Merrill said those numbers were inline with its expectations as Merrill had not factored in any "sub sea cable revenue" to begin with. Merrill felt investors could buy the stock at current levels, but expect negative news flows to hinder the shares. In my opinion, I don't know how any of these accountants, financial analysts, or investors can grasp the concept for "recognition" of sub sea fiber optic cable to begin with. I still feel that any money put to work in Tyco (long or short) had better be done with discipline and the only way I would be able to do it is using some technical analysis techniques like the "inside day." Other than that, there are several thousand other stocks to choose from that don't necessarily have some of the "negative news flows" impacting your investment. Trading/investing in Tyco (TYC) at this point is not for the faint at heart. Challenges still ahead Today's 125 point gain in the Dow Industrials (INDU) was impressive and perhaps gives even the bearish of bears some idea that even they need to be doing some trading or be willing to see some decent gains slip away in a relatively short amount of time. I don't expect bulls to have an easy time of things at the $10,077 level as there we find two potential levels of technical resistance. Dow Jones Industrials Average (INDU) - Daily Interval There's a nice wedge forming on the bar chart of the Dow Industrials, and we see a starting-to-round-lower 200-day moving average just ahead at $10,077 and that would also correlate with our downward trend from the summer highs. I would expect this to be some formidable resistance near-term. A close above the $10,077 level will most likely see a run to the $10,300 level or close to our 61.8% retracement level. In today's 01:30 update, we made note of the triple-top buy signal and today's close above the $9,950 level is promising for the bulls near-term. To get to the $10,300 level, bulls are going to need some type of participation that just wasn't found today from the Dow Transportation Average (TRAN). We mentioned last night that this group did manage to get back above its 200-day moving average, but today 0.70% decline to $2,711 lacks the bullishness I feel an optimistic bull wanted to see. Dow Transportation Average Chart - Daily Interval Today's action in the transports shouldn't necessarily deflate an economic bull's ideas of recovery, but the continued hovering at downward trend dating back to May of 1999 and lack of participation in today's broader market rally isn't filling any party balloons with helium. This group had better get a move on or to get some bears off of things. Today's retail sales number and mention that higher gasoline prices accounted for the bulk of the 1.2% rise in retail sales probably had a negative impact on the transports today. In this morning's 09:00 update we mentioned that sales at gas stations rose 5.1% due to higher fuel prices. The bears are going to point to the 1.2% rise as a falsehood of any underlying economic strength and who can argue with that? If we take out the gasoline sales, overall retail sails (which includes food stores and restaurants) would have fallen 0.6% in January. The bullishness found in today's retails sales number was that spending was rather well diversified across several "categories" of stores and retail sales compared to a year ago were up 2.8%. Economists have been barking that the consumer has continued to spend at a relatively healthy level despite the economy having stumbled into a recession last March, but may now be exhibiting some very early signs of a recovery. Lehman Brothers' economist Drew Matus felt the 1.2% rise in today's retail sales number now means that most economists will be looking for a 1.5% rise in the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of the year. The GDP numbers are not scheduled for release until April 26th and market consensus prior to today was for a Q1 rise in GDP of just 0.7%. If Mr. Matus is correct and GDP is thought to be running at nearly double the consensus estimates, then those Transports should see business picking up and helping offset some of the higher fuel prices found in January. A transport with a "hidden" catalyst On February 9th, we added shares of Airborne Inc. (NYSE:ABF) $16.02 +1.39% to our bullish play list. The stock managed to buck the transportation blues today and this stock still offers what I feel is a relatively "low risk/ high potential return" type of trade (see play description). The "hidden catalyst" may be partially found in Teamster union negotiations that are currently underway with United Parcel Services (NYSE:UPS) $56.68 -0.03%. In 1997, a two-week strike by 185,000 Teamsters cost UPS millions of dollars, crippling the Atlanta-based package delivery giant. A 5-year contract was eventually agreed upon and that contract expires July 31st. Teamster President James P. Hoffa said the union intends to negotiate a historic agreement that will increase wages, maintain a high level of health care benefits, increase pensions and create 3,000 full-time jobs from part-time position. I don't know about you, but I'm thinking that UPS doesn't turn over the pocket book of benefits in a still relatively stagnant economic environment. Should contract talks reach a stalemate, customers of UPS may set up some shipping agreements away from UPS just in case things end in a strike. This type of thinking can be tested going forward and perhaps will give a buy side bias toward our Airborne (ABF) play going forward. Airborne Inc. Chart - Daily Interval I don't think "overhead" supply is an excuse for shares of Airborne Inc. (ABF) to stay held in check from a nice bullish move. I didn't have enough room on the chart to show it, but you'd have to go back to July 21, 2000 to find overhead supply above the $15.92 level (50% retracement). If the Transports (TRAN) break free of that downward trend, then I'm looking for shares of ABF to lead a charge. I like the way retracement seems to fit current and past ranges of trading. With the stock closing above the 50% retracement level, that gives bulls some targets to shoot for at $17.73. Better yet, it gives some bears a level to assess risk against. In a mixed market, we're looking for anything we can get in a bullish trade. Now ABF bulls just need a little help from their friends. Jeff Bailey Senior Market Technician ========== Watch List ========== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. ---------- Network Appliance - NTAP - close: 19.34 change: +2.89 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of NTAP exploded higher today after announcing earnings last night after the market close. Analysts responded positively and shares gained almost 18% by the end of the day. We see the $20 level as strong resistance on both the daily and the point-and-figure charts bolstered by the 50-dma overhead. While over the next couple of weeks, if the markets cooperate, we would expect NTAP to trade towards the $25 mark some profit taking at $20 would not be out of the question. Thus, we'd look for a potential entry if shares pull back to the $18 level. On the other hand, if bulls keep the momentum rolling then the high-volume breakout today may not stop until share reach $22.00 - $22.50 and then we'd look for a pull back to the $20 level. What we're saying is don't chase it and wait for a dip. --- International Paper - IP - close: 44.50 change: +1.03 WHAT TO WATCH: With all the recent positive economic reports hitting the streets lately, it is not a surprise to see investors buying up shares of IP. The big breakout over the $42 level was a key move for IP. However, before you get too excited, IP is not a "big mover" and the +$3 gain in the last several sessions is a lot and shares may need to consolidate. We'd look for a pull back to the $43 level as a potential entry point with a tight stop but realize it may take a few weeks to garner any sort of move worthwhile. --- KLA-Tencor Corp - KLAC - close: 61.29 change: +3.88 WHAT TO WATCH: The earnings report by AMAT last night helped the entire semiconductor sector move higher on Wednesday. Within that move we noticed that KLAC gained 6.75% to breakout above the $60 resistance level. Shares still have some congestion under $61 but the high volume rally was pretty impressive and we think shares will continue to make gains. We're pretty cautious about playing tech stocks long in this environment but traders may want to keep an eye on KLAC for the right entry point. --- Computer Network Technology - CMNT - close: 15.71 change: -1.23 WHAT TO WATCH: We really wanted to play CMNT short on Tuesday and we're upset that we didn't. The company had come out with some earnings news early this week that said Q4 earnings would be lower despite a 29% increase in revenues. That's not what investors want to hear and shares have fallen quickly from the $19-$20 level it was trading near on Monday. The close below $16 today is pretty bearish and we would look for shares to fall to their 200-dma near $13.50. --- West Marine, Inc - WMAR - close: 19.10 change: +1.79 WHAT TO WATCH: This specialty retailer for boating supplies is expected to announce earnings tomorrow on Feb. 14th. It would appear that the earnings are likely to be positive and just maybe someone already knows about it. The stock powered ahead over 10% today and broke through overhead resistance at the $18 level. Shares had already been building on a bullish trend and while we'd like to look for the right pull back to consider a long play we don't want to get caught in a sell-the-news sort of event after the earnings are released. Traders may need to put this on their watch list and check on it for the next few days to see how the market reacts to its earnings report. The high-volume move today is impressive and aggressive bulls might want to look for a dip back to $18. --- Alcan, Inc - AL - close: 39.20 change: +1.02 WHAT TO WATCH: Metal stocks have been coming into investors' focus for a couple of weeks now. There's been a lot of interest in gold stocks with the price of the metal trading back over the $300 mark. However, there has also been a lot of interest in other metal-related equities and Premier is already doing well with its play on PD. Another metal stock you may want to watch is AL. The stock has just pierced its bearish resistance line on the point-and-figure chart and the daily shows the stock moving higher from its 200-dma. We still see the $40 level as potential resistance but a close over $40 may be a signal to consider a long play. --- Progressive Corp - PGR - close: 152.90 change: +4.91 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this insurance giant have been range bound between $140 and $150 for weeks but the stock produced an upside breakout today on strong volume. The point-and-figure chart also shows and upside breakout so it looks like a "buy". The problem is shares are mighty expensive at $150/share and traders might want to look at playing options on it. ================ Market Sentiment ================ Spending on retail, not on stocks. by Russ Moore Consumer spending was responsible for a green arrow day on Wall Street. This morning’s retail report provided strong evidence that the public has not lost its’ appetite for shopping. However, the robust retail action doesn’t seem to be carrying over on to Wall Street, as volume levels remain very weak. The DOW closed with a gain of +1.3 percent while the NASDAQ added +1.4 percent and the NDX +1.5 percent. Volume on the NYSE was 1.2 billion shares. The NASDAQ saw 1.58 billion shares change hands. Advancers lead decliners by a margin of 20/11 on the big board and 20/15 on the tech index. Broad market action saw retail, finance, cyclical and oil service sectors finish with strong gains. Over on the tech side chips and hardware were the top performers. Volatility levels continue to slide but still have a ways to go before the warnings bells go off. We’ll probably be hearing lots of talk about the psychological 10,000 level on the DOW. Yes, a break through that level may provide a little more umph behind the current uptrend however, until we see commitment in the form of dollars, significant headway will be a major challenge. VIX Wednesday 02/13 close: 22.44 VXN Wednesday 02/13 close: 44.17 30-yr Bonds Wednesday 02/13 close: 5.46 Total Put/Call Ratio: .76 Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: .60 Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.40 === NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ) 52-Week High: 103.51 52-Week Low: 28.19 Current close: 36.95 Volume/Open Interest Maximum calls: 37/59,231 Maximum puts : 35/60,066 Moving Averages 10 DMA 36 20 DMA 37 50 DMA 39 200 DMA 39 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 43.24 (12/06/01) Relative Low: 34.97 (02/08/02) 38% 38.13 50% 39.11 62% 40.10 === S&P 100 Index (OEX) 52-Week High: 834.93 52-Week Low: 491.70 Current close: 567.79 Volume/Open Interest Maximum calls: 575/7,369 Maximum puts : 500/9,477 Moving Averages 10 DMA 559 20 DMA 566 50 DMA 578 200 DMA 596 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 600.80 (01/04/02) Relative Low: 546.13 (01/30/02) 38% 567.00 50% 573.44 62% 579.99 === S&P 500 (SPX) 52-Week High: 1530.01 52-Week Low: 965.80 Current close: 1118.50 Volume / Open Interest Maximum calls: 1150/23,344 Maximum puts : 1100/20,878 Moving Averages 10 DMA 1103 20 DMA 1114 50 DMA 1134 200 DMA 1161 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 1176.97 (01/07/02) Relative Low: 1077.78 (02/06/02) 38% 1115.67 50% 1127.37 62% 1139.27 == DJIA (INDU) 52-Week High: 11,518.83 52-Week Low: 8,235.81 Current close: 9,989.67 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 96/12,019 Maximum Puts 90/20,342 Moving Averages: 10 DMA 9,796 20 DMA 9,781 50 DMA 9,920 200 DMA 10,077 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 10,300.15 (01/07/02) Relative Low 9,529.46 (01/30/02) 38% 9,823.86 50% 9,914.80 62% 10,007.28 == Biotech Index (BTK) 52-Week High: 811.61 52-Week Low: 383.28 Current close: 518.70 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 460/372 Maximum Puts: 560/530 Moving Averages 10 DMA 492 20 DMA 507 50 DMA 548 200 DMA 545 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 625.15 (12/06/01) Relative Low: 450.20 (02/07/02) 38% 517.03 50% 537.67 62% 558.66 == Semiconductor Index (SOX) 52-Week High: 1280.84 52-Week Low: 362.00 Current close: 569.30 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 580/1,257 Maximum Puts: 540/ 735 Moving Averages 10 DMA 545 20 DMA 538 50 DMA 548 200 DMA 551 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 606.88 (01/09/02) Relative Low: 499.09 (01/22/02) 38% 540.26 50% 552.98 62% 565.91 == Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) 52-Week High: 455.28 52-Week Low: 339.49 Current close: 380.99 Volume / Open Interest Maximum Calls: 390/690 Maximum Puts: 380/825 Moving Averages 10 DMA 374 20 DMA 375 50 DMA 380 200 DMA 390 Fibanocci Retracements Relative High: 403.83 (11/26/01) Relative Low: 365.22 (02/08/02) 38% 379.93 50% 384.51 62% 389.17 ***** CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/08. Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the Chicago Board Of Trade. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in favor of the commercial trader’s direction. S&P 500 Commercials Long Short Net %Change 01/22/02 342,841 394,041 (51,700) (9.3%) 01/29/02 345,583 401,923 (56,340) 9.0% 02/05/02 347,583 401,569 (53,986) (4.3%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01 Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144) - 5/1/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 01/22/02 125,451 65,423 60,028 (8.6%) 01/29/02 128,826 63,127 63,127 5.1% 02/05/02 128,235 64,404 63,831 1.1% Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 91,122 - 3/06/01 NASDAQ-100 Commercials Long Short Net %Change 01/22/02 30,671 34,103 (3,432) 23.0% 01/29/02 31,577 33,651 (2,974) (13.3%) 02/05/02 32,357 35,405 (3,048) 2.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01 Most bullish reading of the year: (1,825) - 1/02/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 01/22/02 11,885 8,787 3,098 01/29/02 9,709 8,293 1,416 (54.2%) 02/05/02 10,416 8,173 2,243 58.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,028) - 1/02/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/01 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercials Long Short Net %Change 01/22/02 18,152 11,013 7,139 6.6% 01/29/02 19,956 12,171 7,785 9.0% 02/05/02 21,868 12,068 9,800 25.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,925 - 5/22/01 Small Traders Long Short Net %Change 01/22/02 5,424 8,969 (3,545) (5.9%) 01/29/02 5,872 9,709 (3,837) 11.1% 02/05/02 5,764 10,528 (4,764) 24.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (7,572) - 5/08/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 Small Specs Commercials S&P 500 (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value +63,831 +65,699 -53,986 -56,340 Total Open Interest % (+33.13%) (+34.23%) (-7.21%) (-7.54%) net-long net-long net-short net-short Small Specs Commercials DJIA futures (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value -4,764 -3,837 +9,800 +7,785 Total Open interest % (-29.24%) (-24.63%) (+28.88%) (+24.48) net-short net-short net-long net-long Small Spec Commercials NASDAQ 100 (Current) (Previous) (Current) (Previous) Open Interest Net Value +2,243 +1,416 -3,048 -2,074 Total Open Interest % (+12.07%) (+7.86%) (-4.50%) (-3.18%) net-long net-long net-short net-short What COT Data Tells Us ---------------------- Indices:.Very little change in Commercial activity. Keep in mind that we are looking for an increase in diversion between Commercials and Small Specs. Gold: Commercials were busy adding to their net-short positions this week while gold continued to move higher. The precious metal seems to be attracting a lot of attention these days perhaps as a result of the growing weakness in the Japanese markets. 01/08 24,042 contracts net-short 01/15 53,938 contracts net-short 01/22 50,959 contracts net-short 01/29 31,515 contracts net-short 02/05 58,180 contracts net-short Data compiled as of Tuesday 02/05 by the CFTC. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 02-13-2002 section 2 of 2 Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded charts and graphs, click here: http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/3700_2.asp ================================================================= In section two: NetBulls (tech stocks) Closed Bullish Play: COGN Stock Bottom (non-tech stocks) Stop Adjustments: PD Closed Bearish Plays: C, SIVB Split Trader (stock splits) Announcements: CUB announces 3-for-1 Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Net Bulls (NB) section ================================================================== =============== NB Closed Plays =============== ------------- Bullish Plays ------------- Cognos Inc. - COGN - close: 29.45 change: +0.78 stop: 27.98 Markets rallied higher again and this time technology stocks joined them. The GSO.X software index doesn't tell the whole story as it continues to trade sideways. Fortunately for software investors the industry leader started seeing buying pressure again and MSFT added 2.67% with a strong rally off support. Of course this play was on COGN, not MSFT, which has been out performing both MSFT and the GSO.X. Shares of COGN sprinted higher on very strong volume of 942K shares. COGN traded to 29.65, which pushed it through our exit price of $29.50. Therefore we are closing the play with a move of $4.03 or +15.8%. We still like COGN as a bullish play and fully expect shares to surpass the $30 level but right now the stock looks a bit extended and due for a pull back. Odds of it seeing profit taking as it approaches the $30 resistance level are high. Interested traders may want to keep an eye on it and wait to see if shares pull back to rebuild new higher support at $28. Picked on January 25th at $25.47 Gain since picked: +4.03 Earnings Date 04/10/02 (unconfirmed) ================================================================== StockBottom/Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== STOP adjustments ---------------- ------------ Bullish Play ------------ Phelps Dodge - PD - close: 38.08 change: +1.72 stop: 34.75 *new* Yesterday we talked about how traders should watch the copper futures for a move over to the $0.74 cent level. We also mentioned that a breakout over it would be very bullish for PD. Bullish traders were rewarded with a 4.73% gain in PD as copper futures rocketed to 75-cents on Wednesday. This jumped PD over its 200-dma to close over potential resistance at $38. Jeff and I do think PD will continue to trade higher but a pull back to $36.50 would not be out of the question and a possible entry point for traders looking for a new position. We are raising our stop to $34.75. However, and probably more important, we are setting our exit price on PD to $39.85. If shares trade at or above this price we'll close the play for a profit. Volume was pretty strong today so we could see another up day before short- term profit taking hits the share price (but that's being hopeful). Picked on February 11th at $36.07 Change since picked: +2.01 Earnings Date 01/30/02 (confirmed) =============== AT Closed Plays =============== ------------- Bearish Plays ------------- Citigroup Inc - C - close: 45.35 change: +0.20 stop: 46.15 Last night we lowered our stop on Citigroup to a more conservative $46.15 to protect us from an upside breakout should the banks and the markets rally higher. If you noticed, the banks (BIX.X and BKX.X) did rally higher as did the markets. However, Citigroup did not significantly make gains and remains below the $46 resistance level. Unfortunately, earlier in the day, the stock did trade to $46.15 (what a coincidence) and thus we have been stopped out of the play. Citigroup's lack of participation in the market's and the banking sector's rally is probably indicative of investor's lack of faith in the company's short-term prospects. It would not surprise us to see C trading near $40 in the next few weeks but for the time being we'll be watching from the sidelines. Picked on January 29th at $46.71 Gain since picked: +0.56 Earnings Date 01/17/02 (confirmed) --- Silicon Valley - SIVB - cls: 23.77 chg: +1.37 stop: 23.01 Unlike Citigroup above, Silican Valley Bancshares did rally with the banking sector and they rallied strongly with a 6% gain. Shares powered higher on strong volume and closed near their high for the day. SIVB actually closed above its 200-dma, which is a bullish indicator. Shares still remain under resistance of $24 but the strength of today's rally may be strong enough to break through it. We were stopped out when shares traded through $23.01 for an eight cent loss. Picked on January 18th at $22.93 Gain since picked: -0.08 Earnings Date 01/16/02 (confirmed) ================================================================== Split Trader - Stock Split (ST) section ================================================================== ============== Announcements ============== Intraday Breakout On 3-for-1 Split for CUB During a bullish session on Wall Street today, the Cubic Corp (AMEX:CUB) announced that at its annual shareholder meeting, its Board of Directors had approved a semi-annual dividend of 19-cents a shares plus a 3-for-1 stock split. Shares immediately jumped higher on the news. The dividend is payable on March 16th, 2002 for shareholders on record of February 18th. The payable date for the stock split was not set as it needs to be approved by shareholders. Management will set a special shareholder meeting to approve the split and set a payable date. The stock closed at $49.75 on Tuesday. For a current quote, click here: http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=CUB About the company The Cubic Transportation Systems Group designs and manufactures automatic fare collection systems for public mass transit, including rail and buses throughout the world. The Cubic Defense Group provides instrumented air and ground combat training systems, battle command training simulations, and simulation support for U.S. and allied military forces. The group also produces high technology avionics, data links and communications products for government and commercial customers and provides a wide range of technical and logistics services. (company press release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. --------------------------------- Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change BA Boeing Co 44.90 +1.75 NSANY Nissan Motor Co Ltd 11.93 +0.78 DYN Dynegy Inc 23.20 +0.86 AYE Allegheny Energy Inc 35.37 +0.63 NBR Nabors Industries Inc 32.49 +0.70 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change ODP Office Depot Inc 18.49 +2.30 NTAP Network Appliance Inc 19.34 +2.89 IDCO Interactive Data Corp 16.50 +1.15 EVC Entravision Comm. 14.85 +2.65 INRG Inrange Technologies 15.39 +1.49 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change AVE Aventis 72.49 +3.26 AMAT Applied Materials Inc 47.96 +3.25 MU Micron Technology 39.01 +1.21 CSG Cadbury Schwepps 26.46 +1.03 AL Alcan Inc 39.20 +1.02 PGR Progressive Corp 152.90 +4.91 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change RTRSY Reuters Group 47.05 -1.46 ICST Intergrated Circuit Sys 20.15 -2.20 AHG Apria Healthcare Group 22.29 -1.33 FHRX First Horizon Pharma. 26.00 -2.90 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change ...n/a... ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. 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