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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 02/15/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-15-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      They're due for a bounce, but when?
Play-of-the-Day:  What Is The Best Defense?
Watch List:       COX, CMCSK, SFA, TLAB, BRCM, BRCD, A & more!
Market Sentiment: Dwindling expectations.

------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
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          WE 2-15          WE 2-8           WE 2-1         
DOW       9903.04 +158.80  9744.24 -163.02  9907.26 + 67.18
Nasdaq    1805.20 - 13.68  1818.88 - 92.36  1911.24 - 26.46
S&P-100    559.65 +  2.37   557.28 - 12.07   569.35 -  5.79
S&P-500   1104.18 +  7.96  1096.22 - 25.98  1122.20 - 11.08
W5000    10315.48 + 66.16 10249.32 -240.85 10490.17 - 86.35
RUT        469.25 +  2.58   466.67 - 13.37   480.04 +  0.69
TRAN      2684.23 + 24.29  2659.94 - 99.39  2759.33 - 20.59
VIX         24.09 -  1.38    25.47 +  2.60    22.87 +   .94
VXN         44.99 -  4.29    49.28 +  6.20    43.08 -  2.59
TRIN         1.89              .64             1.44        
TICK         -128             +957             +652        
Put/Call      .90              .73              .67        
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WE= week ended

===========
Market Wrap
===========

They're due for a bounce, but when?

For weeks we've been cautious and actually avoiding many telecom 
and telecom-related stocks from the bullish side with the 
observation that these groups just didn't seem to offer favorable 
risk/reward characteristics for bullish trades.  For a sixth 
straight week, the Networking Index (NWX.X) traded lower and has 
me thinking they're due for a bounce.  When they bounce, it will 
most likely be attributed to short covering and nothing more.  
Smart money is avoiding the telecom stocks, networking, fiber 
optic and wireless stocks like the plague.  

While our play list didn't concentrate on shorting these sectors, 
or stocks within them, we didn't have to.  The recent two-day 
decline in our bearish play in Time Warner Telecom (NASDAQ:TWTC) 
$6.82 -16.31% should be enough to feed the belly of the hungriest 
bear.  But we aren't the only ones that thought TWTC was an 
attractive bearish position and at some point, the bears will 
cover and when they do the stock will rise.  If you're a bear 
that likes profits, then be ready to lock them in.  

If you've every seen a bearskin rug, the rug was most likely made 
from a complacent bear that didn't check his environment close 
enough and perhaps got a little greedy at a food container that 
wasn't left in the forest by accident.

In today's 01:30 update, we noted that shares of Qwest (NYSE:Q) 
were getting hammered to a new 52-week low at $6.70 and the stock 
was trading down -10.68%.  How much lower do you think that stock 
traded by session's end?  The stock actually finished the session 
with a 1% gain at $7.56 as shorts came in and covered.  I don't 
know about you, but I'm not necessarily willing to give back that 
kind of dough in a range bound market.

At any point, shorts will cover, and when they get in unison, 
weird things can happen and the perceived bullish move can have 
ugly implications if you're complacent.  When a trades going in 
your favor to the downside and the stock looks to be falling 
apart, its easy to get complacent and look for lower prices.  
With that said, we want to be moving down our stop in our bearish 
trade on Time Warner Telecom (NASDAQ:TWTC) and protect our gains 
against a rally.  There will be no bearskin rugs hanging on the 
wall at PremierInvestor.net.  See tonight's play update.

Weekly action

Stocks finished very mixed this week and it was definitely a week 
of haves and have-nots!  Anything that was telecom related most 
likely got hit to the downside.  And companies that make 
equipment for the telecom industry also got hit to the downside.  
If not for Monday's rally, the weekly data for Networking 
(NWX.X), Wireless (YLS.X), Fiber Optic (FOP.X) and both Telecom 
Indexes (IXTCX) (XTC.X) would have been much worse.

Weekly market averages/sector performance




"BIG RED" was concentrated in the groups mentioned above.  As 
heavy as some of the sector losses were, the broader NASDAQ 
Composite (COMPX) and even the NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) didn't do too 
bad by comparison.  The Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) put in a 
bullish weekly performance, though the group did give back 1.8% 
today.  One stock that we have talked about with a 
semiconductor/telecom flavor that looks ready for a plunge lower 
are shares of PMC-Sierra (NASDAQ:PMCS).  We talked about the 
triangle forming in this one back in the January 25th market wrap 
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/markets/marketwrap/012502_1.asp 
and the company serving the telecom industry.  Recent action 
looks like bears have sniffed this one out as "telecom-related" 
and it's starting to break down from its wedge.  This is perhaps 
one of the better-looking shorts I see in the technology area 
right now from a risk/reward perspective.

PMC - Sierra Chart - Daily Interval




Recent negativity in the telecom sector may be catching up with 
shares of PMCS.  The stock is finally breaking down from our 
wedge and a trade at $19.50 would trigger a bearish triangle on 
the point/figure chart.  When we first talked about PMCS as a 
short candidate back on January 25th, we thought market makers 
might have a "buy side bias" at the $18.89 level and this may be 
a hurdle that bears will have to negotiate.  However, market 
makers have seen lots of stock come at them in recent sessions 
and if PMCS takes out the December low, she could fall quickly to 
the $15 level if market makers back away.  The lower highs hint 
that market makers as well as market participants are getting 
more defensive with the stock.  I'm still thinking that telecom 
is going to be hurting for awhile and I don't expect a rush of 
orders form PMCS chips to hit the books for several months.  

One thing I think more attractive about a PMCS short than some 
other telecom related stocks is that PMCS doesn't look 
overextended to the downside so I wouldn't think there would be a 
"rush to cover" situation taking place next week, which may 
happen in some other stocks that got hammered to the downside 
recently.

Energy on the rebound?

Energy stocks are perhaps this week's bullish surprise.  While 
Friday's commentary regarding copper and Phelps Dodge (NYSE:PD) 
panned out well for the bulls, the performance from the Oil 
Service Index (OSX.X) and the Oil Index (OIX.X) does surprise me.

I still feel the best place for energy bulls to be making bets 
are on the producers themselves, with secondary bets on some of 
the service stocks.

Today I was browsing some point/figure charts of the oil service 
stocks and what I took away from them was this.  Those that have 
some type of "offshore" or "oceanic" flavor are the ones that 
look to be most bullish.

For instance, CHC Helicopter (NASDAQ:FLYA) $12.92 +0.15% has been 
a strong stock.  It's way too thinly traded for my liking, but 
this company is a provider of helicopter transportation services 
for the oil and gas sector with operations throughout the world 
and most of them are located near large bodies of water where 
offshore production is common.

Another stock that I had my eye on today was shares of Oceanering 
International (NYSE:OII) $23.79 +5.68%.  This company provides a 
comprehensive range of integrated technical services and hardware 
to customers that operate in harsh environments such as 
underwater environments for the oil and gas industry.  

Schlumberger Ltd. Chart - Daily Interval




Shares of Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) have not given a sell signal 
since the powerful move off the lows in November and the longer-
term bullish vertical count to $74 should have a bull's interest.  
A move above the $57 would have the stock trading a spread-triple 
top and that's a powerful buy signal from the point and figure 
perspective.  I like a 1/2 bullish position long in shares of SLB 
on a trade at $57.  I also like a 1/2 bullish position on a 
pullback at $53.  

The reason I'm not looking at a full position at $57 is what we 
have seen in shares of oil/natural gas producer Apache (NYSE:APA) 
$51.03 +0.41%.  Remember when we first started talking bullish 
about this one back in December near $46 and also mentioned the 
reverse head and shoulders pattern?

Apache Corporation Chart - $1 box




Do you see some of the similarities between the chart of Apache 
(NYSE:APA) and that of Schlumberger (SLB)?  Doesn't it look to 
you like APA may be leading or technically a little more bullish 
than Schlumberger?  This makes some sense as it relates to our 
scenario that an energy producer like APA would lead an energy 
move and that an oil service stocks like SLB might benefit down 
the road.  It's rare that I've seen a stock give multiple bullish 
vertical counts that hint of a longer-term price objective, that 
that price objective isn't eventually met.  I really get the 
feeling that sometimes the "first" buy signal off the bottom is 
created by bears locking in their gains along with some longer-
term bulls beginning to establish a position.  Then as visibility 
clears, the bulls begin getting a little more aggressive with 
their buying, thus creating the lower highs.  That latest little 
dip back below $45 looks like a "bear trap" and a beauty at that!  
Right at the bullish support trend.  While it is obvious now, a 
bull that stuck with the stock and the trend may not have gotten 
duped.  In the early part of a bullish cycle, you'll find bear 
traps galore!  

What's up with that?

What is it with these energy stocks?  Is money flowing here just 
to avoid some of the accounting scares that we are getting in 
other areas of the market?  We could argue that point for some 
time.

Or is there some type of catalyst for higher energy prices that 
the MARKET knows about that we are yet to learn?

Does it matter?  It sure didn't matter last Friday to not "know 
for sure" that copper prices were headed higher.  The charts sure 
looked bullish.  The higher price in copper also had an 
observation from last Friday paying some rewards for bullish 
traders in Phelps Dodge (NYSE:PD) $38.70 +0.12%.  Shares of PD 
gained 10.8% this week.  That handily beat the broader market 
averages or index gain this week.

By the time we figure out why the MARKET seems to be favoring 
some of the energy stocks, some good profits may have been able 
to be had.  We can try and reason through some scenarios and I do 
think it makes sense to put more weight at this point in the 
producers than the service side of the energy sector, but there 
are some very good supply/demand trades to be had on a short-term 
basis for a trader that wants to dodge some of the difficulty and 
volatility that some of the technology stocks sure seem to have.

In the current market environment, it doesn't seem to matter what 
kind of growth rates analysts are projecting for a stock.  If 
there's any type of question as the how those numbers are being 
generated or what they're based off of, the stock is going to get 
hit hard.

My mom used to tell me to "let sleeping dogs alone and don't 
disturb them."  I'm not sure how many sleeping dogs (if any) 
there are in the technology sector where numbers or accounting 
figures are suspect, but I haven't heard any concerns regarding 
the numbers in the oil or oil service stocks.  The only negative 
news in the group has really been in Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) and 
the asbestos claims.  

Shares of HAL gained 11% to $16.27 today on news that its Dresser 
unit was issued a temporary stay by a U.S. Court, regarding more 
than 200,000 pending asbestos claims.  The ruling came in 
connection with the bankruptcy filing by Harbison-Walker 
Refractories, which was spun off from Dresser in 1992.  The 
stayed claims represent a majority of the pending asbestos claims 
against all Halliburton subsidiaries.  Approximately 132,000 of 
the stayed claims are refractory claims that Harbison-Walker 
agreed to be responsible for when it was spun-off.  

I'm not interested in this point of owning any Halliburton.  
Today's "stay" was a near-term catalyst for a move higher in the 
stock and put some fears to rest.  However, mom said to leave 
sleeping dogs alone, and there's still some "asbestos risk" with 
Halliburton that could still bite a bull.  

Some more boring stocks!

Next week I may add the Defense Index (DFI.X) to our weekly 
sector watch.  There are some stock in this group like Northrop 
Grumman (NYSE:NOC) $115.50 +5.01% that can make for some good 
trading.  NOC may be a little pricey, so I'm taking a close look 
at shares of Dow component Honeywell Intl. (NYSE:HON) and Dow 
component United Technologies (NYSE:UTX).  Both of these stocks 
have the aerospace/defense flavor and their supply/demand charts 
are shaping up.  Shares of UTX are looking stronger and that 
silly stock has worked its way out of the cellar of our 
hypothetical Dow portfolio we started back on September 10th.

It's been awhile since we took a quick look at that portfolio so 
here it is.

Hypothetical Dow Portfolio of $1,000 invested on Sept. 10th




The good old Dow portfolio still doesn't look all that bad.  
Since September 10th, perhaps the worst day an investor could 
have put money to work in the market, they'd still be looking at 
a gain of 2.24%.  

It still amazes me with all we hear about a slow economy that 
Wal-Mart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) are at the top of the list of 
Dow performers.  Aren't both of these stocks retailers?

Intel isn't doing to bad for a high flying technology stock.  I 
must admit that Intel and Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) have 
done quite well.  I still think that bodes well for signs that 
the MARKET believes in a chip rebound.

Isn't it interesting that in October, both AT&T (T) and SBC 
Communications (SBC) were at the top of the Dow portfolio, but 
look where they are now!  Ugh... the #28 and #27 spots.  This 
confirms a lot about what we've been observing in the past month 
or so about telecom and networking for that matter.

I've put check marks by United Technologies (UTX) and Honeywell 
(HON).  When you look at the point and figure charts of these two 
and compare each to where they trade in respect to their bullish 
and bearish trends on those charts, it's evident that UTX is the 
stronger chart.  What has me intrigued about HON is the technical 
upside the stock looks to have and the nice base of consolidation 
that it has been building.  

I need to spend a little more time doing some research on HON, 
but a move above the $35 level is going to have this one moving 
way up the scale on my bullish watch list.

Looking ahead

I wish this accounting junk would just go away as it would make 
my day a lot easier.  Right now, that's a landmine that we're 
trying to navigate around and so far I think we have done a 
pretty good job of doing just that.

I'd be telling you a fib if I said we didn't try using some "bad 
news" in the market to take advantage of some things in Qualcomm 
(NASDAQ:QCOM) and Time Warner Telecom (NASDAQ:TWTC) recently, but 
all is fair in love and war.

I think we had our stop on Citigroup (C) set too tight and giving 
up an extra penny would have us holding a good one short I think.  
When I see fellow Dow component JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) at the #29 
slot in our Dow portfolio, I get the feeling that Citigroup (C) 
will work its way lower over time.

That also has me wanting to point out the slight DIVERGENCE that 
we saw this week in the KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) and the S&P Bank 
Index (BIX.X).  Notice that the BKX.X fell 0.1% this week, while 
the BIX.X gained 1.5%.  We even see that type of relative 
performance show up in the year-to-date performance with the 
BKX.X showing a loss of 6.7%, while the BIX.X is down just 1.7%.  
The BKX.X holds more of the multinational banks, whereas the 
BIX.X is comprised of more domestic/regional banks.  The larger 
banks like JMP and C have a lot more exposure to some companies 
that crop up with accounting concerns and for now, that's a place 
bulls should avoid if at all possible.

On a weekly basis, Treasuries didn't see that much buying, but 
today they sure did.  The 10-year YIELD has fallen to 4.863% and 
that has me looking for bullishness in stodgy old blue-chips and 
thinking that any rallies in tech near-term is simply going to be 
a case of short-covering.

There's just enough underpinnings of economic recovery that I 
don't think a short can just go shorting anything.  I'm rather 
eager to book a gain in our TWTC bearish trade, and I'm looking 
for Celestica (NASDAQ:CLS) to break down.  We've been rather 
patient with that tech short.  It looks like its hanging by a 
thread on its bar chart, but I'm impressed by how it has held in 
there.  It's that type of thing that still has me feeling the 
markets aren't falling apart at the seams.

The day after Presidents Day (Tuesday) has a historical habit of 
being a bullish trading day.  I've asked our play writers to not 
load up the play list with a bunch of new bearish plays this 
weekend.

I would still like to see some pullback in the biotechs, but I 
think they are starting to put in a bottom.  The recent action in 
the BTK.X and the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) is starting to look 
like that found in late September and early October.

Despite today's technology drubbing, the NASDAQ-100 bullish % 
didn't give up an inch and remains in "bull alert status" at 38% 
bullish.  Remember, earlier this week it was "bear confirmed" at 
28%.  What this tells me is that the bulk of the weakness has 
been very narrow and recent observations have been telecom, 
networking, fiber, wireless.  Don't expect many bullish trades to 
show up in our play list for these groups for some time.  Let 
sleeping dogs alone!

Have a great weekend!

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================
(( this is a new non-tech play for the weekend ))

Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 22.50 change: +0.79 stop: 20.49

Company Description:
Rockwell Collins is a world leader in the design, production and 
support of communications and aviation electronics solutions for 
government and commercial customers worldwide.  Their mobile 
communications equipment can be found in both commerical and 
military systems with additional systems ranging from navigation, 
display, flight controls, in-flight entertainment, and air, 
ground and shipboard applications for the U.S. Department of 
Defense.  They have locations across the globe. (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It:
If you have been watching the sector performances lately you have 
probably noticed that defense stocks have become pretty popular 
again.  The renewed interest on homeland defense and a rising 
potential for a military engagement against Iraq have investors 
betting on stronger revenues for the lot of them.  Stocks like 
LMT, GD, RTN, and NOC all made nice gains on Friday and many of 
them look attractive for short-term bullish plays but our 
favorite is COL.  The stock's bullish trend looks a lot more 
steady and the recent bounce off its 200-dma near the $20.50 area 
has helped set up a move back above the $22 level of resistance.  
Bulls still have a potential hurdle at $23 but we don't think it 
will be too much of a challenge.  The company has recommitted 
itself to raising its profit potential with a 16 percent cut of 
its workforce.  Management did say that they did not expect a 
return of business in their commercial airline segment until 2004 
but investors are buying shares despite the news.  We are going 
to start the play with a stop at $20.49.  Those traders who can 
take the heat would probably be better served with a stop just 
under $20.

Picked on February 15th at $22.50 
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date            04/17/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

COX Communications - COX - close: 32.92 change: -1.08

WHAT TO WATCH: COX recently announced Q4 results and posted a 
wider loss despite rising revenues.  That is not what investors 
wanted to hear.  Surprisingly, shares didn't react until a day or 
two later.  The stock had been trying to trade back above 
resistance at $36 but failed for the third day in a row on 
Thursday and ended the day at $34.  That sell-off renewed again 
on Friday and even an upgrade couldn't slow the slide.  Volume 
was heavy on these two declines and we strongly considered 
shorting the stock in the newsletter.  The point-and-figure chart 
also shows a new relative low and a triple-bottom breakdown.  
Definitely a stock to watch!




---

Comcast Corp. - CMCSK - close: 31.20 change: -1.29

WHAT TO WATCH: Is it just me or are the telcom-wireless-cable-
broadband-networking sectors all starting to blend together into 
one big heap?  One of those stocks falling towards the bottom of 
the heap (and looking a lot like COX above) is CMCSK.  Shares 
broke down under the $32 support level on Friday on strong 
volume.  It looks like a good short candidate but the $30 level 
might offer some psychological round-number price support.




---

Scientific Atlanta - SFA - close: 22.10 change: -0.87

WHAT TO WATCH: Continuing on a theme of cable and broadband we 
also highlight SFA.  This is another stock in the industry that 
appears to be headed lower and may be a great short candidate.  
Readers might remember that another play on the Premier 
newsletter, GMST, currently has litigation against SFA and recent 
developments have Wall Street thinking that GMST will win.  SFA 
might be a decent short to $20, which could prove to be tough 
support.  




---

Tellabs, Inc. - TLAB - close: 12.03 change: -0.98

WHAT TO WATCH: Yet another optical-networking-broadband stock 
that is screaming for bears to short it is TLAB.  Shares had been 
trading sideways the last several sessions between $13 and $14 
but Friday's move was a clean breakdown but shares stopped at 
support of $12.  The move was on strong volume and we'd expect 
the trend to continue but a bounce back and a failed rally at $13 
would not be out of the question (and a possible entry for a 
short play).  Another way to play it would be to wait for a break 
down under $12.  Traders should then look for the $10 level to 
act as support.




---

Broadcom Corp. - BRCM - close: 35.03 change: -2.07

WHAT TO WATCH: Still working on a theme, we very strongly 
considered adding BRCM as a short play and still think it is a 
great candidate for bears.  This is another chip-stock that 
builds circuits for the broadband-digital transmission group of 
companies.  Shares have failed at the $40 level and collapsed 
again under their 200-dma.  The close at $35 merely looks like a 
pause on the way down.  This may show up on the play list later 
this week.




---

Brocade Communications - BRCD - close: 29.99 change: -2.65

WHAT TO WATCH: As we are writing this watch list we are going to 
branch out from broadband networking stocks and move to storage 
area networking stocks.  Doing so we see that BRCD is also a very 
strong short candidate.  Recently there has been speculation 
regarding BRCD and a patent dispute case with McDATA.  Shares 
have recently rolled over at the $35 level and the Friday close 
under $30 is a very bad sign for the bulls.  The decline would 
appear to have pierced the bullish support on the point-and-
figure chart but it needs to confirm it with a drop to $29.00.  
Maybe I've been staring at too many charts but it almost looks 
like a head-and-shoulders has been formed and broken for BRCD.  
If it is, then a break below the neckline would put a short-term 
bearish target of $20 to $22 for BRCD.  




---

Agilent Technologies - A - close: 27.50 change: +0.20

WHAT TO WATCH: Speaking of head-and-shoulders, Agilent has 
created a beautiful pattern but the breakdown under the neckline 
was thwarted with a rally over the last few sessions.  It's 
possible that the recent strength is do to hope for a positive 
earnings report, which is due out after the close on Tuesday, 
Feb. 19th.  However, given the recent reactions on Wall Street to 
earnings (good, bad or indifferent) we wouldn't be in a buying 
mood.  We would consider a bearish short play on A if the stock 
closed under the $26 level again.  Another close under $26 would 
be a definite break of the neckline (for the second time) and my 
precede a move to the $22-$21 area.  Wait until after earnings 
are announced.






=============
MORE TO WATCH
=============

Bullish Candidates
------------------

SLB  - the energy and oil sector is looking tempting.  We'd consider
       a long play on a move over the $56.50 to $57 level.

ITW  - another stock building on higher lows is coiling for a break
       out.  We'd consider a long play on a move over $72.50.


Bearish Candidates
------------------

EMC  - storage networking is suffering from renewed selling pressure
       and EMC looks like it could trade to $10 again.  One to watch!

LXK  - the breakdown on Friday doesn't look good but there is possible
       support at $50.  We'd consider a short with a tight stop and a
       target near $45.

BLDP - an alternative energy stock that is not responding with the 
       more traditional sector's recent bullishness.  Friday's 8.7%
       decline could be the start of a bearish move to $20. 



================
Market Sentiment
================

Dwindling expectations.
by Russ Moore

The Michigan consumer sentiment index fell for the first time in 
five months as investor confidence continues to erode.

The survey showed the current conditions index actually rose from 
95.7 to 97.2 however the expectations component fell from 93.0 in 
January to 90.6 in February. Markets, already feeling the blues 
from an IBM “accounting story”, took a turn for the worse 
following the report.

Pockets of strength in the oils, transports, paper and drugs were 
not enough to overcome the negative tone. The DOW ended the day 
with a loss of -1.0 percent with the brokerage sector facing 
heavy selling. Tech action was weak throughout the day. The 
NASDAQ closed out the week with a loss of -2.1 percent while the 
NDX shed -2.6 percent. Market breadth was mixed as winners 
slipped past losers by a 16/15 margin on the big board while 
losers outpaced winners by a margin of 21/14 on the NASDAQ.

Volume failed to show any improvement, no doubt a symptom of the 
Enron inspired "confidence crisis". NYSE volume came in at 1.34 
billion shares while the NASDAQ had 1.60 billion shares change 
hands.

Consistent volume should be high up on your watch list. This 
week’s volume has been anemic; giving no indication that a near 
term rally is forthcoming.


VIX
Friday 02/15 close: 24.04


VXN
Friday 02/15 close: 44.99


30-yr Bonds
Friday 02/15 close: 5.37


Total Put/Call Ratio: 1.15


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.08


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.67


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 35.78

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/121,595
Maximum puts : 37/163,193

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 36
 20 DMA 37
 50 DMA 39
200 DMA 39

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 43.24 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  34.97 (02/08/02)
38% 38.13
50% 39.11
62% 40.10

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 559.65

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 580/4,509
Maximum puts : 520/5,039

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  558
 20 DMA  564
 50 DMA  577
200 DMA  595

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 600.80 (01/04/02)
Relative Low:  546.13 (01/30/02)
38% 567.00
50% 573.44
62% 579.99

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1104.18

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1100/38,290
Maximum puts : 1100/45,773
Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1100
 20 DMA 1112
 50 DMA 1133
200 DMA 1159

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1176.97 (01/07/02)
Relative Low:  1077.78 (02/06/02)
38% 1115.67
50% 1127.37
62% 1139.27

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close:  9,903.04

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/17,795
Maximum Puts    98/40,846

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,803
 20 DMA  9,798
 50 DMA  9,925
200 DMA 10,070

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 10,300.15 (01/07/02)
Relative Low    9,529.46 (01/30/02)
38%  9,823.86
50%  9,914.80
62% 10,007.28

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 500.05

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/951
Maximum Puts:  520/885

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 492
 20 DMA 504
 50 DMA 545
200 DMA 545

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 625.15 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  450.20 (02/07/02)
38% 517.03
50% 537.67
62% 558.66

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 554.61

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 550/  410
Maximum Puts:  500/1,067

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 546
 20 DMA 540
 50 DMA 549
200 DMA 551

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 606.88 (01/09/02)
Relative Low:  499.09 (01/22/02)
38% 540.26
50% 552.98
62% 565.91

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 381.04

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/300
Maximum Puts:  380/500

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 375
 20 DMA 375
 50 DMA 379
200 DMA 390

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 403.83 (11/26/01)
Relative Low:  365.22 (02/08/02)
38% 379.93
50% 384.51
62% 389.17

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/15. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/29/02     345,583   401,923   (56,340)    9.0%
02/05/02     347,583   401,569   (53,986)   (4.3%)
02/12/02     355,276   412,868   (57,592)    6.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/29/02       128,826    63,127    63,127     5.1%
02/05/02       128,235    64,404    63,831     1.1%
02/12/02       126,730    59,902    66,828     4.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/29/02      31,577    33,651    (2,974)    (13.3%)
02/05/02      32,357    35,405    (3,048)      2.5%
02/12/02      32,712    34,841    (2,129)    (30.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/29/02        9,709     8,293    1,416    (54.2%)
02/05/02       10,416     8,173    2,243     58.2%
02/12/02        9,009     7,415    1,594    (29.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
01/29/02      19,956    12,171    7,785      9.0%
02/05/02      21,868    12,068    9,800     25.9%
02/12/02      26,811    16,488   10,323      5.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
01/29/02       5,872     9,709    (3,837)     11.1%
02/05/02       5,764    10,528    (4,764)     24.2%
02/12/02       4,562    10,038    (5,476)     15.0%
 
Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +66,828     +63,831        -57,592    -53,986

Total Open
Interest %       (+35.81%)  (+33.13%)      (-7.50%)   (-7.21%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -5,476     -4,764          +10,323   +9,800
Total Open
interest %       (-37.51%)    (-29.24%)      (+23.84%)  (+28.88)
                 net-short   net-short       net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +1,594      +2,243         -2,129    -3,048

Total Open
Interest %        (+9.71%)   (+12.07%)     (-3.15%) (-4.50%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.We mentioned on Thursday that we’ll need to see some 
accumulation by the big players if a rally is going to get 
underway. We’re not seeing any signs yet, as the Commercial 
players held on to their net-short positions while the Small 
Specs added to their net-longs. 

Gold: Commercial activity has been a little puzzling of late. 
Gold has been enjoying a solid run over the last few weeks and 
yet, the big players have been adding to their net-short holdings 
(bearish). We’re going to dig a little deeper and see if we can 
provide an explanation for their behavior. 

01/15 53,938 contracts net-short
01/22 50,959 contracts net-short
01/29 31,515 contracts net-short
02/05 58,180 contracts net-short
02/12 62,223 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 02/12 by the CFTC.




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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-15-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:     PMCS
  Bearish Play Updates:  CCMP, CLS, TWTC


Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Plays:     COL, FRX
  New Bearish Plays:     LEH
  Bullish Play Updates:  ABF, HRB, PD, UNH

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     ADLAC
  Bullish Play Updates:  GMST

Split Trader
  - none -


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB New Plays
===============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

PMC Sierra - PMCS - close: 20.71 change: -0.97 stop: 23.01

Company Description:
PMC-Sierra is a leading provider of high speed broadband 
communications semiconductors and MIPS-based processors for 
Enterprise, Access, Metro Optical Transport, and Wireless network 
equipment that makes up the backbone of the Internet. PMC-Sierra 
is included in the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX). 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The sell-off in the larger telecom stocks has been pretty 
painful.  However, even as investors continue to pound these tech 
equities into low teens and single digit stock prices the 
investing public is starting to spread this hunt for weakness 
into other companies like equipment suppliers.  We're certainly 
not saying that PMCS has been strong lately but it appears that 
traders have ferreted out their relationship to the telecom and 
wireless sectors and PMCS could be next on the bears hit list.  A 
look at the PMCS daily chart show a large pennant formation 
forming from the high in early December from the low in late 
December coming to a head this last week.  Friday's session was a 
breakout to the downside of this pennant.  Therefore we are going 
to short the stock with an initial stop at $23.01, which is a bit 
wider than we would prefer.  However, once shares close under $20 
we'll lower our stop to something more palatable.  Our initial 
target is $18.00 but we'll adjust it as the play progresses.

Picked on February 15th at $20.71 
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date            01/24/02 (confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cabot Microelectronics - CCMP - cls: 58.41 chg: -0.88 stop: 63.01

Shares of CCMP confirmed the breakout from Thursday with another 
strong volume decline on Friday and a loss of 1.48%.  CCMP fell 
to $57.00 before bouncing higher into the close.  This move was 
enough to produce the double-bottom breakout we mentioned would 
occur on the point-and-figure chart.  Overall the tech picture 
doesn't look that strong and the Nasdaq's pull back along with 
some weakness in the SOX has this play looking pretty attractive.  
However, traders should be aware that traditionally, the day 
after President's day has historically been a bullish session.  
Therefore we would not be surprised to see CCMP rally back to the 
$60 level.  A failed rally here would be a great entry point for 
new shorts.  Over $60 and we would not enter new positions.

Picked on February 14th at $59.29 
Change since picked:        +0.88
Earnings Date            01/24/02 (confirmed)




---

Celestica - CLS - close: 37.90 change: -1.10 stop: 40.41 *new*

Traders may want to remember that CLS is a major OEM supplier for 
the likes of DELL, HWP, IBM, LU, NT, CSCO, EMC, and SUNW.  This 
group of tech stocks have been getting hammered lately and the 
market has not reacted well to a number of recent developments.  
DELL's and HWP's earnings have not been received well and new 
accounting woes have hit IBM.  How does this translate to CLS?  
If Wall Street isn't seeing a pick up in earnings or business for 
most of these players why would one expect them to be ordering 
more hardware from CLS?  Honestly, we are very surprised that CLS 
has taken this long to come under more selling pressure.  A look 
at the intraday chart shows the stock falling under the $38 
support level early on but bouncing back into the close.  A 
couple of late or last second trades at $37.90 could be a fluke 
or could be an indication of what might happen on Tuesday when 
the markets reopen.  We are going to be optimistic that this is a 
new breakdown for CLS but traders should confirm stock direction 
before considering any new positions.  We are also going to lower 
our stop to $40.41, which is above the Feb. 11th high.

Picked on February 5th at $39.40
Gain since picked:         +1.50
Earnings Date           01/31/02 (confirmed)




---

Time Warner Telecom - TWTC - cls: 6.82 chg: -1.33 stop: 7.08 *new*

The debt issue raised by Qwest (Q) earlier this week is now 
weighing very heavily on the rest of the group.  Wall Street 
suspects that Sprint will be the next telecom that may have to 
turn to its bank line of credit if big investors aren't 
interested in their short-term paper.  TWTC issued its own press 
release today regarding an objection by the Washington State 
Attorney General's office over TWTC's recent acquisition of GST 
Telecom's assets under GST's Chapter 11 liquidation plan.  TWTC 
said that escrows for tax contingencies were accounted for and 
there would be no favorable or unfavorable result on this 
transaction that occurred over a year ago (to paraphrase their 
release).  It didn't seem to matter what they said or why they 
said it, investors hit the sell button today and TWTC fell 
another 16% on top of Thursday's losses.  Shares fell below the 
$7.50 level we suggested for short-term traders and we were 
surprised to see them fall below the $7.00 level so quickly.  It 
would appear that there was an intraday top or lid of resistance 
at $6.91 for most of the afternoon.  Therefore we are going to 
lower our stop to a tight $7.08.  Currently the newsletter is up 
about 28% in this play but moving our stop to $7.08 should 
protect a move of $2.41 or just over 25%.  Our risk now is a gap 
up above our stop on Tuesday morning.  We would not recommend new 
positions at this time as we are looking for the exits.  For us 
that means being stopped out at $7.08 or an exit at $6.00.

Picked on February 12th at $ 9.49 
Change since picked:        +2.67
Earnings Date            02/05/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT New Plays
===============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 22.50 change: +0.79 stop: 20.49

Company Description:
Rockwell Collins is a world leader in the design, production and 
support of communications and aviation electronics solutions for 
government and commercial customers worldwide.  Their mobile 
communications equipment can be found in both commerical and 
military systems with additional systems ranging from navigation, 
display, flight controls, in-flight entertainment, and air, 
ground and shipboard applications for the U.S. Department of 
Defense.  They have locations across the globe. (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It:
If you have been watching the sector performances lately you have 
probably noticed that defense stocks have become pretty popular 
again.  The renewed interest on homeland defense and a rising 
potential for a military engagement against Iraq have investors 
betting on stronger revenues for the lot of them.  Stocks like 
LMT, GD, RTN, and NOC all made nice gains on Friday and many of 
them look attractive for short-term bullish plays but our 
favorite is COL.  The stock's bullish trend looks a lot more 
steady and the recent bounce off its 200-dma near the $20.50 area 
has helped set up a move back above the $22 level of resistance.  
Bulls still have a potential hurdle at $23 but we don't think it 
will be too much of a challenge.  The company has recommitted 
itself to raising its profit potential with a 16 percent cut of 
its workforce.  Management did say that they did not expect a 
return of business in their commercial airline segment until 2004 
but investors are buying shares despite the news.  We are going 
to start the play with a stop at $20.49.  Those traders who can 
take the heat would probably be better served with a stop just 
under $20.

Picked on February 15th at $22.50 
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date            04/17/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Forest Labs - FRX - close: 82.58 change: +1.84 stop: 77.49

Company Description:
Forest Laboratories develops, manufactures and sells ethical 
pharmaceutical products that are used for the treatment of a wide 
range of illnesses. Forest Laboratories' growing line of products 
includes: Celexa(TM) (citalopram HBr), which has been shown to be 
safe and effective in many large-scale clinical trials and is 
available for the treatment of depression, Tiazac®, a once-daily 
diltiazem, which is indicated for the treatment of angina and 
hypertension, and Aerobid®, an inhaled steroid indicated for the 
treatment of asthma. Forest's products are marketed directly by 
the company's Forest Pharmaceuticals, Forest Therapeutics, Forest 
Healthcare and Forest Specialty Sales forces. (source: company 
press release)

Why We Like It:
The last six weeks have shown FRX to be trading in a range bound 
pattern between $77.50 and $83.00.  We feel that the recent surge 
off the $80 level on strong volume may be an attractive entry 
point for longs to consider taking new positions.  Shares bounced 
near the $77.50 level, which also included a bounce at their 
rising 50-dma on Feb. 7th and 8th, 2002.  We're betting that the 
stock will be able to breakout above resistance at $83 and $84 in 
the next couple of weeks and shares will begin their next leg 
higher.  More conservative traders may want to wait for shares to 
actually confirm the breakout or look for additional dips to the 
$80 level as potential entries.  We will start the play with a 
stop at $77.49.  Investors interested in the company's earnings 
will be happy to note that their last report showed a 33% jump in 
profits lead by a 47% surge in sales of their antidepressant 
drug, Celexa.  The broader DRG.X drug index has been able to 
maintain its gains from the last two weeks while the BTK.X 
biotech index has fallen back to the 500 level, which could act 
as support for the group.  

Picked on February 15th at $82.58 
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date            04/16/02 (unconfirmed)





  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 58.03 change: -3.47 stop: 62.35

Company Description:
Lehman Brothers, an innovator in global finance, serves the 
financial needs of corporations, governments and municipalities, 
institutional clients, and high-net-worth individuals worldwide. 
Founded in 1850, Lehman Brothers maintains leadership positions 
in equity and fixed income sales, trading and research, 
investment banking, private equity, and private client services. 
The Firm is headquartered in New York, London, and Tokyo and 
operates in a network of offices around the world. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Brokerage upgrades and downgrades on the brokerage sector have 
been going back and forth like a tennis match lately.  One of the 
risks of shorting a brokerage stock is they or their buddies 
always seem to upgrade them when their stock is falling.  This of 
course makes us suspicious but the current downtrend in the group 
may not be stoppable, at least for another 10 to 15 percent.  
Other stocks in the group like GS and MWD appear to be rolling 
over which makes the XBD.X brokerage index look pretty weak.  LEH 
actually looks to be one of the weaker stocks in the group and 
Friday's breakdown under the $60 mark again on strong volume of 
3.8 million shares looks bad.  If you look at a point-and-figure 
chart of LEH the picture looks even worse.  Friday's session 
signaled a triple-bottom breakdown.  This makes a move to $55 
almost a given but then every time we think something is a 
guarantee we get pretty suspicious.  We are going to initiate the 
short play with a stop just above Thursday's high at $62.35.  Our 
target exit price will be near the $50 level but will adjust it 
as the play progresses.  

Picked on February 15th at $58.03 
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date            12/20/01 (confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Airborne Inc - ABF - close: 16.19 change: +0.21 stop: 14.95

Traders continue to slowly bid up shares of ABF despite the 
weakness in the markets on Friday.  The stock has been slowly 
working off of higher lows and the last couple of sessions have 
been on rising volume but not enough to show a lot of conviction.  
Friday was the strongest close over the $16 level yet so we're 
encouraged and looking for a positive end to next week.

Picked on February 11th at $16.05 
Change since picked:        +0.14
Earnings Date            02/01/02 (confirmed)




---

H R Block - HRB - close: 46.53 chg: -0.20 stop: 45.95 *new*

As we expected, shares of HRB fell back on Friday but bounced 
above the $46 level before closing for a 20-cent loss.  Technical 
indicators like the MACD are saying the rally looks tired and HRB 
may need to pull back more significantly before moving higher.  
Trying to interpret the strength or HRB leads us to believe that 
shares might fall back to the $44 level before trading higher.  
Therefore we are going to move our stop up to a conservative 
$45.95 and attempt to limit our exposure to $1.06.  Given that 
the day after President's day is historically up, we'll see if 
HRB can rally off the $46 support level.  If not, we'll probably 
be stopped out and can attempt a new entry at a more attractive 
position later on.  Don't forget that earnings for HRB are 
expected at the end of February.

Picked on February 5th at $47.01 
Gain since picked:         -0.52
Earnings Date           02/27/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Phelps Dodge - PD - close: 38.70 change: +0.05 stop: 37.50 *new*

Hmmm... we were hoping that the rally/short-squeeze in copper 
might continue to push shares of PD towards the $40 level before 
stopping to pause.  Unfortunately, the spike in copper futures on 
Wednesday has been hit with two days of profit taking.  It is 
surprising that shares of PD have not fallen back with the drop 
in copper.  Instead, shares have traded sideways on Thursday and 
Friday.  The very short-term move higher may be played out in PD 
even though we feel the bullish trend is still in affect and 
longer-term investors may want to hold on to it.  We are going to 
try and protect some of our profits by moving our stop up to 
$37.50.  This will allow for some maneuvering room but if shares 
fall below our stop they will probably retrace to the 200-dma 
near $36.50 or round-number support $36.00.  Either level might 
be a good entry if you're looking for a new long position with a 
stop under $35.00.  Our exit price of $39.85 is still good.

Picked on February 11th at $36.07
Change since picked:        +2.63
Earnings Date            01/30/02 (confirmed)




---

UnitedHealth Group - UNH - cls: 74.31 chg: -0.22 stop: 73.45 

Another twelve cents and we would have been stopped out of UNH 
during Friday's session.  Shares of the healthcare stock slipped 
to $73.57 before bouncing back above the $74 level by the close.  
Bulls should be encouraged by the bounce off support but we're 
still cautious on the play and want to see more conviction by 
buyers.  We wouldn't be opening new positions but if you are 
inclined this might be a good entry with a tight stop under 
Friday's low (like ours).  We'd prefer to see the stock breakout 
over $76 and see the MACD reverse course again.

Picked on January 11th at $71.75 
Gain since picked:         +2.56
Earnings Date           01/24/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR New Plays
===============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Adelphia Communications - ADLAC - cls: 19.97 chg: -0.91 stop: *note*

Company Description:
Adelphia Communications Corporation, headquartered in 
Coudersport, Pennsylvania, is the sixth largest cable television 
operator in the United States, serving over 5.5 million cable 
subscribers in more than 30 states. (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It:
Cable-operators who run broadband networks like ADLAC have been 
seriously abandoned by bulls in 2002 and shares continue to fall.  
The stock has plummeted from a failed attempt over its 200-dma 
back in early January near $32.50 and just recently bounced near 
its October low in Friday's session.  The selling is not company-
specific to ADLAC, other cable and media players are also under 
pressure and COX, CHTR and CVC all look like short candidates.  
There may have been some confusion for shareholders about the 
ADLAC spin-off of its Adelphia Business Solutions, Inc stock 
(Nasdaq:ABIZ) but we think the selling is more industry related.  
The close under $20 on Friday is very tempting but shares 
produced a strong bounce intraday off its low of $19.01.  The low 
back in October was $18.76.  Therefore we are going to make ADLAC 
a short play on a conditional basis.  Shares have to trade at or 
below our trigger price before we are "in" the play.  That 
trigger will be $18.74.  If we are triggered we'll start the play 
with a stop at $21.01 and adjust it as the play progresses.  
Probably one of the biggest clues to the future of ADLAC's stock 
price and why we think it's a short play is the point-and-figure 
chart.  Currently, the bearish price objective is under $10 but 
we want to see it hit a new low before we enter a play.  We 
realize that we're sacrificing a potential $1.25 here (give or 
take) but would prefer to catch the stock moving lower.  Part of 
the risk is that while shares of these companies continue to 
decline it may spark a new round of consolidation.  ADLAC could 
easily be an acquisition target for a larger cable company.  

Picked on February Xth at $xx.xx <-- see trigger 
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           03/08/02 (unconfirmed)





===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Gemstar-TV Guide Intl. - GMST - cls: 18.30 chg: -0.92 stop: 16.95

The market sell-off on Friday was the perfect excuse for traders 
to take short-term profits in GMST.  Shares dropped almost 5% 
during Friday's sessions and retraced to the $18 level as we 
suspected they would.  Now that GMST has filled the gap we feel 
it is ready to trade higher if the market will cooperate.  
Traditionally, the day after President's day is a bullish one for 
the markets so maybe GMST will be able to take advantage of a 
little history.  Traders can look for potential new long 
positions at this level but confirm stock direction.  For more 
details surrounding the GMST patent-lawsuit check out Thursday's 
update.

Picked on February 8th at $18.11 
Gain since picked:         +0.19
Earnings Date              03/02 (unconfirmed)







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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright © 2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 02-15-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
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http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/897959_3.asp
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In section three:

Market Watch for Week of February 17th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of February 17th
==================================================

  ------------------------
  Major Earnings This Week
  ------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

DA     Groupe Danone          Mon, Feb 18  11:30 am ET        N/A
NZT    Telecom New Zealand    Mon, Feb 18  Before the Bell    N/A

------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ANF    Abercrombie&Fitch      Tue, Feb 19  After the Bell    0.72
ADCT   ADC                    Tue, Feb 19  Before the Bell  -0.05
A      Agilent Technologies   Tue, Feb 19  After the Bell   -0.50
CEPH   Cephalon               Tue, Feb 19  After the Bell    0.14
KOF    Coca-Cola FEMSA,       Tue, Feb 19  Before the Bell   0.42
RE     Everest Reinsurance    Tue, Feb 19  After the Bell    0.75
FMX    FEMSA                  Tue, Feb 19  Before the Bell   0.82
FHCC   First Health Group     Tue, Feb 19  Before the Bell   0.26
GPC    Genuine Parts          Tue, Feb 19  -----N/A-----     0.51
IPCR   IPC Holdings           Tue, Feb 19  After the Bell    0.64
KG     King Pharmaceuticals   Tue, Feb 19  Before the Bell   0.30
MDT    Medtronic              Tue, Feb 19  -----N/A-----     0.30
MTGNY  Modern Times Group     Tue, Feb 19  Before the Bell    N/A
OMC    Omnicom Group          Tue, Feb 19  Before the Bell   0.87
QGENF  QIAGEN                 Tue, Feb 19  -----N/A-----     0.07
SRCL   Stericycle             Tue, Feb 19  After the Bell    0.31
TLTOB  Tele2 AB               Tue, Feb 19  -----N/A-----      N/A
TMPW   TMP Worldwide          Tue, Feb 19  After the Bell    0.24
TRI    Triad Hospitals        Tue, Feb 19  Before the Bell   0.17
WMT    Wal-Mart               Tue, Feb 19  After the Bell    0.49
WTW    Weight Watchers Int’l  Tue, Feb 19  After the Bell    0.04
WTM    White Mntns Ins Grp    Tue, Feb 19  After the Bell     N/A
YRK    York International     Tue, Feb 19  -----N/A-----     0.61

-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AAP    Advance Auto Parts     Wed, Feb 20  -----N/A-----     0.03
AOG    Alberta Energy         Wed, Feb 20  Before the Bell   0.13
ALD    Allied Capital         Wed, Feb 20  Before the Bell   0.45
AIB    Allied Irish Banks     Wed, Feb 20  -----N/A-----      N/A
ARW    Arrow Electronics      Wed, Feb 20  -----N/A-----    -0.03
BFb    Brown-Forman           Wed, Feb 20  Before the Bell   0.81
CYH    Community Health Sys   Wed, Feb 20  After the Bell    0.16
DCX    DaimlerChrysler        Wed, Feb 20  -----N/A-----     0.37
DCI    Donaldson              Wed, Feb 20  After the Bell    0.45
ASR    Grupo Aero Del Sureste Wed, Feb 20  -----N/A-----     0.12
HIW    Highwoods Properties   Wed, Feb 20  After the Bell    0.95
IIT    Indonesian Satellite   Wed, Feb 20  Before the Bell    N/A
JS     Jefferson Smurfit      Wed, Feb 20  -----N/A-----     0.64
MCCC   Mediacom               Wed, Feb 20  Before the Bell  -0.50
PCX    PanCanadian Energy Co  Wed, Feb 20  Before the Bell    N/A
PDCO   Patterson Dental       Wed, Feb 20  Before the Bell   0.36
PRS    Pure Resources, Inc.   Wed, Feb 20  -----N/A-----    -0.13
SNPS   Synopsys               Wed, Feb 20  After the Bell    0.26
TKP    Technip-Coflexip       Wed, Feb 20  After the Bell     N/A
TK     Teekay Shipping        Wed, Feb 20  -----N/A-----     0.84
WPPGY  WPP Group PLC          Wed, Feb 20  Before the Bell   1.07
XTO    XTO Energy             Wed, Feb 20  Before the Bell   0.40

------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

AET    Aetna                  Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell  -0.41
ADSK   Autodesk               Thu, Feb 21  -----N/A-----     0.55
BEAS   BEA Systems            Thu, Feb 21  After the Bell    0.07
BRG    BG Group               Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell    N/A
BVF    Biovail Corporation    Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell   0.43
CBRL   CBRL Group             Thu, Feb 21  During the Market 0.35
CIEN   CIENA                  Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell  -0.20
CKC    Collins&Aikman         Thu, Feb 21  -----N/A-----    -0.10
CNC    Conseco                Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell   0.14
CXR    Cox Radio              Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell   0.03
CEI    Crescent R Est Eq Co   Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell   0.50
DEG    Delhaize Group         Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell    N/A
DEO    Diageo PLC ADS         Thu, Feb 21  -----N/A-----      N/A
ENL    Elsevier NV ADS        Thu, Feb 21  -----N/A-----      N/A
HAN    Hanson PLC             Thu, Feb 21  -----N/A-----      N/A
HCC    HCC Insurance Holdings Thu, Feb 21  After the Bell    0.38
JDEC   J.D. Edwards           Thu, Feb 21  -----N/A-----    -0.01
JCP    JC Penney              Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell   0.30
LIZ    Liz Claiborne          Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell   0.48
CLI    Mack Cali Realty       Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell   0.92
MC     Matsushita Electric    Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell    N/A
NXTL   Nextel Communications  Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell  -0.45
JWN    Nordstrom              Thu, Feb 21  After the Bell    0.31
PCG    PG&E                   Thu, Feb 21  -----N/A-----     0.62
PWG    PowerGen plc           Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell    N/A
PHCC   Priority Healthcare    Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell   0.18
ROIA   Radio One              Thu, Feb 21  -----N/A-----    -0.21
RSH    Radio Shack Corp       Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell   0.66
RUK    Reed International     Thu, Feb 21  -----N/A-----      N/A
ROP    Roper Industries       Thu, Feb 21  After the Bell    0.46
SCRI   SICOR                  Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell   0.17
TD     Toronto Dominion Bank  Thu, Feb 21  -----N/A-----      N/A
TP     TPG NV                 Thu, Feb 21  -----N/A-----     0.33
UBB    Unibanco               Thu, Feb 21  -----N/A-----     0.67
VCI    Valassis               Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell   0.51
WRE    WA Rl Est Invst Trst   Thu, Feb 21  After the Bell    0.51
WGR    Western Gas Resources  Thu, Feb 21  Before the Bell   0.29
WIND   Wind River Systems     Thu, Feb 21  After the Bell   -0.01

------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

AKZOY  Akzo Nobel ADR         Fri, Feb 22  Before the Bell    N/A
DDR    Developer Divers Rlty  Fri, Feb 22  Before the Bell   0.62
ETP    Enterprise Oil PLC     Fri, Feb 22  -----N/A-----      N/A
HSP    Hispanic Brodcstng Co  Fri, Feb 22  Before the Bell   0.05
PSS    Payless ShoeSources    Fri, Feb 22  Before the Bell   0.36
RG     Rogers Communications  Fri, Feb 22  Before the Bell    N/A
RCN    Rogers Wrls Comm Inc.  Fri, Feb 22  Before the Bell  -0.34
RY  Royal Bank of Canada      Fri, Feb 22  -----N/A-----     0.54


  -------------------------------
  Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
  -------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

HIBB    Hibbett Sporting Goods    3:2      02/18       02/19
HTLD    Heartland Express      3.15:2      02/18       02/19
BLL     Ball Corp                 2:1      02/21       02/22
CEBC    Centennial Bank          21:20     02/22       02/25
ACS     Affiliated Computer Svcs  2:1      02/22       02/25
FINB    First India Corp          5:4      02/26       02/27
FBCI    Fidelity Bancorp          3:2      02/28       03/01
CCBN    Central Coast Bancorp     5:4      02/28       03/01
NJR     New Jersey Resources      3:2      03/01       03/04


  --------------------------
  Economic Reports This Week
  --------------------------

Earnings continue to pour in but investor focus has soured as
accounting concerns are popping up in the likes of IBM while
more Enron exposure hits TV during the day.  The big economic
report this week is the CPI.  Don't forget that markets are
closed on Monday.


Monday, 02/18/02
----------------
None                    -- Markets Closed --


Tuesday, 02/19/02
-----------------
Housing Starts (BB)      Jan  Forecast:  1.59M  Previous:   1.57M
Building Permits (BB)    Jan  Forecast:  1.60M  Previous:   1.65M


Wednesday, 02/20/02
-------------------
CPI (BB)                 Jan  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:   -0.2%
Core CPI (BB)            Jan  Forecast:   0.2%  Previous:    0.1%


Thursday, 02/21/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)    02/16  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:     N/A
Trade Balance (BB)       Dec  Forecast:-$28.5B  Previous: -$27.9B
Leading Indicators (DM)  Jan  Forecast:   0.6%  Previous:    1.2%
Philadelphia Fed (DM)    Feb  Forecast:   10.0  Precious:    14.7
Treasury Budget (AM)     Jan  Forecast: $52.0B  Previous:  $76.4B


Friday, 02/22/02
----------------
None

Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell



==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ERJ     Embraer Empresa            25.01     +1.43
COL     Rockwell Collins Inc       22.50     +0.79
NXY     Nexen Inc                  22.60     +1.26
TK      Teekay Shipping Corp       33.66     +0.51
MW      Men's Warehouse Inc        23.02     +0.61

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

HAL     Halliburton Co             16.27     +1.61
NRG     NRG Energy Inc             11.38     +1.38

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ABT     Abbott Laboratories        57.34     +1.07
DD      Dupont                     44.90     +1.40
LMT     Lockheed Martin Corp       54.87     +1.47
NOC     Northrop Grumman Corp     115.50     +5.52
NUE     Nucor Corp                 59.48     +1.78
ITT     ITT Industries Inc         55.33     +1.33
FS      Four Seasons Hotels Inc    46.51     +3.21

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

IBM     Intl. Business Machines   102.89     -5.00
DELL    Dell Computer Corp         25.60     -1.21
FTE     France Telecom             26.58     -1.42
CMCSK   Comcast Special Stock      31.20     -1.29
COX     Cox Communications         32.92     -1.08
LEH     Lehman Brothers            58.03     -3.47

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ADBE    Adobe Systems Inc          35.69     -1.32
NST     Nstar                      43.51     -0.75




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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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Copyright © 2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




DISCLAIMER

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