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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 02/28/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Thursday 02-28-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Marvell-us, just Marvell-us.
Market Sentiment: Repeat performance.
Play-of-the-Day:  When the Chips Are Down.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      02-28-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10106.13 - 21.45 10238.70 10104.88 1.36 bln   1652/1448
NASDAQ   1731.52 - 20.36  1773.20  1728.65 1.91 bln   1634/1895
S&P 100   562.41 -  0.68   570.51   562.36   Totals   3286/3333
S&P 500  1106.73 -  3.16  1121.57  1106.73             
RUS 2000  469.37 -  3.24   473.40   467.91
DJ TRANS 2810.93 - 50.13  2879.26  2810.93
VIX        23.06 -  0.03    23.79    22.49
VXN        46.19 +  0.43    47.04    44.81
TRIN        1.32 
PUT/CALL    0.83
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Marvell-us, just Marvell-us

An afternoon siesta looks to be the norm in recent trading 
sessions as higher opens have found further bullishness in late 
morning hours spurred by stronger than expected economic numbers, 
but the curtains are then drawn as bulls seemingly fall asleep in 
the latter part of the afternoon.  The inability of the bulls to 
find an extended rally may have some waiting things out and this 
may then give free reign to bearish traders that aren't buying 
the "economy is recovering" scenario.

If you give a bull a bedtime story that depicts lackluster growth 
in earnings, he will surely fall asleep as it becomes a story he 
has heard before and in recent years the story hasn't had a happy 
ending.

In a constant search for stocks that "make sense" or "don't make 
sense" for a mutual fund manager to carry with him/her to the 
upcoming end of quarter review, I think we've found a stock that 
really seems to depict the MARKET's broader perception of what 
carries some downside risk that "doesn't make sense" and may 
therefore be slated for an exit out of a portfolio.

For a bearish trader, this one may look "Marvell-us, just 
Marvell-us."

Marvell Technology Chart - $1 box




If I were a fund manager that held a gain in shares of Marvell 
Technologies (MRVL) I'd be looking for the nearest exit with 
today's trade at $30.  If I were a fund manager that held a loss 
in shares of MRVL, I'd be looking for the nearest exit with 
today's trade at $30.  If I were a fund manager looking a stock 
to buy, I would not be looking at shares of MRVL.  If I were a 
fund manager and had been reading PremierInvestor.net market 
commentary for the past month, I would not be looking long the 
stock of a company that manufactures proprietary COMMUNICATIONS 
mixed-signal and digital signal processing technology for 
COMMUNICATIONS-related markets.

There are so many "odds" against a winning trade from the bullish 
side in shares of MRVL that I don't see anyone (other than a 
short locking in some gains from higher levels) aggressively 
looking to get involved from the bullish side in MRVL.  According 
to Professor Earl Davis' study the triple-bottom sell signal is 
profitable for a bearish trader 93.5% of the time, for an average 
gain of 23% in a 3.4 month average time span.  

If you took anything away from our "word association" update at 
01:00 EST Update, you can further imagine what a fund manager may 
be thinking if he were to be unfortunate enough to continue to 
hold this stock should it break below the 200-day moving average 
of $29.32 and then have to explain this position at his/her 
quarterly review, especially if the cost basis were much higher 
than the $35 level.

Perhaps Wednesday's headline from Morningstar says it all.  
"Investors should marvel at Marvell stock only from a distance, 
in our opinion."  

Tonight, after the bell, Marvell Technologies (MRVL) reported 
earnings of $7.4 million or $0.06 a share and beat estimates by a 
penny.  Including charges, the company would have reported a loss 
of $-0.86 a share, compared to a loss of $-2.85 in the year-ago 
period.  Revenues grew 80% to $82.6 million versus year-ago 
revenues of $45.8 million.

See tonight play write-up on this one as we will place a 
trigger/action point for initiating a trade.

A day of disappointment

Today has to be considered a day of disappointment for bulls.  
For the second consecutive session, some stronger than expected 
economic data was not enough to have stocks holding their gains.

A bull certainly want to believe that the economy is making a 
turn for the better, but market action certainly depicts that of 
a market where bulls lack conviction.

Technology stocks are going to be the greatest disappointment for 
bulls.  However, it has been our view that these weren't the 
stocks that were going to lead any type of economic recovery to 
begin with.  For the past several weeks we've noted weakness in 
many computer-related technology groups and the telecom sector 
and I think it's finally starting to click with other market 
participants that technology has a long way to go before there is 
any type of "trickle-down" benefit from a slowly recovering 
economy.

One thing that is making some sense from yesterday's Greenspan 
testimony that the MARKET seems to be paying close attention to 
is his thought of how suspect some technology sectors are as it 
relates to the telecom industry.  I don't think he's necessarily 
talking about the telephone that we call home on, but the more 
expensive equipment like routers and switches that are now being 
underutilized due to slower business growth, new office hookups 
and any type of build-out of expensive networks.

While today's Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) number was 
very robust at 53.1% signals that the regional Chicago area is 
seeing an emergence at the industrial level from recession, the 
pace of that recovery is yet to be known.  It will take more data 
to get a truer reading.  Why?

In Mr. Greenspan's verbal testimony, I remember him saying 
something about capacity utilization, inventory levels and sales 
volume.  In college, I took a "production management" class and 
found it fascinating.  While some think that "production 
management" is a rather boring subject, it entails a great deal 
of strategy, forecasting, and monitoring of various dynamics.  I 
won't go into great detail, but what looks to be in play is this 
thought.

Inventories are down substantially as manufacturers almost 
brought to a halt their production in the latter part of 2001.  
With the weak economy and inactivity at the industrial level the 
run-rates that had been high in 2000 and early 2001 were quickly 
clogging the supply chain.  As is usually the case with any type 
of overproduction, the cutbacks are too severe and fine-tuning is 
needed to get production running at just the right pace.  What I 
think the MARKET is keying on right now is that the stronger than 
expected Durable Goods Orders from yesterday and today's stronger 
Chicago PMI data are showing is a short-term knee-jerk increase 
created by manufacturers that are stepping up production that had 
almost come to a halt.

Manufactures are able to increase production rather quickly.  As 
Mr. Greenspan pointed out, productivity increases have been 
spectacular and more product can be manufactured with fewer 
workers in a very short-period of time.  His cautioning on 
putting too much weight on current economic data is that he isn't 
sure that the strong GDP and PMI numbers are simply a short-term 
reflection of replenishing of inventories due to severe supply 
cutbacks from the September 11th terrorist attacks (production 
was limited and many company's cut production due to uncertainty 
and inventory buildup from transportation issues).  The caution 
comes from the thought that any weakness in consumer confidence 
(we saw a weaker number on Tuesday in this measure) or spending 
will have inventories piling up again, then production cutbacks 
will follow, and PMI and GDP will be back down again.

Consumer confidence now becomes an important issue once again.  
In fact, right now it is very important.  Many believe that one 
part of consumer confidence is how well the NASDAQ Composite 
performs.  Evidently, many consumers feel that part of their 
wealth is tied to technology stocks and consumer confidence.

To me, the thought that consumer confidence is partially tied to 
the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) is scary.  I'm not saying that I'm 
right and that technology stocks aren't the place to be invested, 
but if I am right then confidence isn't going to get much higher 
than it has been in the past couple of months.

I truly feel that some technology stocks are so far down the food 
chain in the scope of a modest economic recovery that some can't 
even imagine.  This is a generic statement, but some technology 
stocks that depend on the telecom industry may not see any type 
of meaningful growth for the next 18 months assuming a modes 
economic recovery.  It would take a very sharp economic recovery 
for many to see meaningful gains in the next 6-months.

It's not just me

I'm trying to be truthful and unbiased in my thoughts and 
observations.  I'm not an eternal bear, but thing about this.  
Late yesterday, the House approved a bill on high-speed Internet 
access that offers relief to the Baby Bells, but the legislation 
will most likely be fiercely contested and some feel the odds of 
it becoming law are by no means a sure thing.

The Republican-controlled House passed the so-called Tauzin-
Dingell bill by a 273-157 vote, but much like the recent tax-cut 
legislation, support for this bill is weak among Democrats.

Are you depressed yet?  Two major items that Mr. Greenspan 
commented on in his notes THE CONSUMER and TELECOMMUNICATIONS 
have been before the Senate (tax-cuts for consumer) and once 
again are before the Senate (relief for the Baby Bells).  With 
the recent squashing of any tax relief for the consumer, what are 
the chances that there would be any type of relief for the baby 
bells?

North American Telecom Index Chart - Daily Interval




Those investors that are thinking "food chain" may begin to 
understand just why some of the networking and telecom equipment 
stocks have been under such heavy selling in recent weeks.  The 
North American Telecom Index (XTC.X) is comprised of all the baby 
bells and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that this 
group has been under heavy selling for sometime.  Over the past 
two years, I've hears several analysts call a bottom.

These stocks haven't fallen for no reason.  Earnings are under 
pressure as debt levels swelled to finance the build out of huge 
networks that are now hardly being used to full capacity.  Even 
today's "good news" of potential relief for the Baby Bells got a 
muted response from investors.  Those bulls that await some type 
of move above the longer-term 200-day moving average will most 
likely avoid potential disaster.  There has been enough bottoms 
called already.

My thought process as it relates to the "food chain" would then 
have me taking a more serious look at stocks in the telecom 
equipment sector that would eventually benefit from strength at 
the telecom (XTC.X) level.  This is something we talked about 
months ago and I have seen nothing to budge me from that position 
up until now.  To be truthful, if I "had" to own a telecom 
related stock, it would be a telecom provider and NOT a stock 
that is dependent on the telecom-provider's business.  If I'm 
going to own a stock with terrible technicals, then I want to be 
as close to the money pot as it relates to the "food chain" as 
possible.

Do I buy now in hopes of the Senate passing the recent Tauzin-
Dingell bill?  Sure, but only with the money I get from the next 
tax-cut bill I'm still waiting for the Senate to pass.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Repeat performance.
Russ Moore

Another volatile session is in the books, and once again we saw 
the tale of two markets unfold in today’s action.

The major indices began the day with some upside momentum before 
giving way to an increasing amount of selling pressure from the 
post-lunch crowd.

The DOW ended with a loss of -0.2 percent while the NASDAQ shed -
1.2 percent and the NDX -1.4 percent. Volume picked up a bit with 
1.35 billion shares moving on the big board and 1.93 billion on 
the tech index. Winners edged losers by a 16/15 margin on the 
NYSE however, losers outpaced winners on the NASDAQ by a 19/16 
count.

Banks, brokerages, gold, oil service and oil were among the few 
sectors able to post green arrows.

I’m sure many investors are beginning to wonder what it’s going 
to take for the markets to move higher. We’ve been seeing, for 
the most part, significant improvement in the economic data and 
in fact, earnings announcements haven’t been all that bad. So 
what gives? Why can’t the markets make any headway? 

It all comes down to commitment. Investors are looking for 
corporate America to put their money where their mouth is. 
They’re looking for guidance from the company’s they’re being 
asked to invest in. Let’s face it, if everything is as rosy as 
many an analyst is want to tell us, why aren’t we seeing buyback 
levels increasing? 

Investors are fed up with the talk and are ready to see America’s 
CEO’s “walk the walk”. Let’s see those CEO’s who are constantly 
telling us everything if improving, pony up, and start re-
investing in their own companies. Until that happens it’s going 
to be difficult for the markets to make any progress.



VIX
Thursday 02/28 close: 23.06


VXN
Thursday 02/28 close: 46.19


10-yr Bonds
Thursday 02/28 close: 4.86


Total Put/Call Ratio:  .83


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio:  .74


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.29


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 33.78

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/128,755
Maximum puts : 35/137,593

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 34
 20 DMA 35
 50 DMA 38
200 DMA 39

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 43.24 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  34.97 (02/08/02)
38% 38.13
50% 39.11
62% 40.10

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 562.41

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 580/7,203
Maximum puts : 510/6,492

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  558
 20 DMA  559
 50 DMA  573
200 DMA  591

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 600.80 (01/04/02)
Relative Low:  546.13 (01/30/02)
38% 567.00
50% 573.44
62% 579.99

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1106.73

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1100/39,440
Maximum puts : 1100/43,577

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1100
 20 DMA 1102
 50 DMA 1126
200 DMA 1153

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1176.97 (01/07/02)
Relative Low:  1077.78 (02/06/02)
38% 1115.67
50% 1127.37
62% 1139.27

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close: 10,106.13

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/18,438
Maximum Puts    96/38,125

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA  9,988
 20 DMA  9,892
 50 DMA  9,934
200 DMA 10,036

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 10,300.15 (01/07/02)
Relative Low    9,529.46 (01/30/02)
38%  9,823.86
50%  9,914.80
62% 10,007.28

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 479.19

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/955
Maximum Puts:  520/931

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 490
 20 DMA 491
 50 DMA 529
200 DMA 542

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 625.15 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  450.20 (02/07/02)
38% 517.03
50% 537.67
62% 558.66

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 510.83

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 550/1,375
Maximum Puts:  500/1,581

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 532
 20 DMA 539
 50 DMA 543
200 DMA 546

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 606.88 (01/09/02)
Relative Low:  499.09 (01/22/02)
38% 540.26
50% 552.98
62% 565.91

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 384.14

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/300
Maximum Puts:  380/500

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 381
 20 DMA 378
 50 DMA 378
200 DMA 389

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 403.83 (11/26/01)
Relative Low:  365.22 (02/08/02)
38% 379.93
50% 384.51
62% 389.17

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 02/22. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/05/02     347,583   401,569   (53,986)   (4.3%)
02/12/02     355,276   412,868   (57,592)    6.6%
02/19/02     355,905   772,569   (60,759)    5.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/05/02       128,235    64,404    63,831     1.1%
02/12/02       126,730    59,902    66,828     4.7%
02/19/02       130,856    63,311    67,545     1.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/05/02      32,357    35,405    (3,048)      2.5%
02/12/02      32,712    34,841    (2,129)    (30.1%)
02/19/02      33,871    35,690    (1,819)    (14.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/05/02       10,416     8,173    2,243     58.2%
02/12/02        9,009     7,415    1,594    (29.0%)
02/19/02        9,966     8,073    1,893     18.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/05/02      21,868    12,068    9,800     25.9%
02/12/02      26,811    16,488   10,323      5.3%
02/19/02      29,606    17,953   11,653     12.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/05/02       5,764    10,528    (4,764)     24.2%
02/12/02       4,562    10,038    (5,476)     15.0%
02/19/02       4,654    10,431    (5,777)      5.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +67,545     +66,828        -60,759    -57,592

Total Open
Interest %       (+34.79%)  (+35.81%)      (-7.86%)   (-7.50%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -5,777     -5,476          +11,653   +10,323
Total Open
interest %       (-38.29%)    (-37.51%)      (+24.50%)  (+23.84)
                 net-short   net-short       net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +1,893      +1,594       -1,819    -2,129

Total Open
Interest %        (+10.49%)   (+9.71%)     (-2.61%) (-3.15%)
                 net-long   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Commercial and Small Spec positions remain virtually 
unchanged this week.

Gold:.Ditto for the gold market as Commercials continue to hold a 
good supply of net-short contracts. Gold has come off its highs 
but still remains relatively strong. In the past, Commercial 
activity has been reasonably accurate in determining the price 
movement on the precious metal however, this time we're stumped. 

01/22 50,959 contracts net-short
01/29 31,515 contracts net-short
02/05 58,180 contracts net-short
02/12 62,223 contracts net-short
02/19 60,054 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 02/19 by the CFTC.



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bearish)
=========================
((  This is a new NB short play for tonight ))

Altera Corp - ALTR - close: 19.07 change: -0.92 stop: 20.55

Company Description:
Altera Corporation is the world's pioneer in system-on-a-
programmable-chip (SOPC) solutions. Combining programmable logic 
technology with software tools, intellectual property, and 
technical services, Altera provides high-value programmable 
solutions to approximately 14,000 customers worldwide. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Multiple factors are weighing down the semiconductor sector and 
the recent collapse in shares of ALTR have us looking for some 
follow through to much lower levels.  One easily identifiable 
bearish factor for the group was the breakdown in shares of 
Intel, which are commonly seen as a proxy for the chip sector 
since they are the biggest chip stock on the block.  With Intel 
closing under its 200-dma at the $29 level we see immediate 
weakness to the $27 level for the stock.  This might be enough to 
push the already weak SOX.X chip index through its support level 
at 500.  The last few months had seen the SOX trading range-bound 
between 500 and 600 with recent ranges closer to 560 to 500.  
ALTR is actually doing worse than the sector index and today's 
close under the $19.25 level is pretty negative.  In just the 
last few of days, ALTR and rival XLNX had been in the news when 
they gave guidance for the current quarter.  ALTR's was not much 
different than the guidance it gave in January when it said sales 
should rise 3% to 5% from the December quarter.  It's rival 
Xilinx (XLNX) said that they were expecting a 10% growth and this 
prompted a few upgrades for the stock.  While both XLNX and ALTR 
believe that customer inventories have bottomed ALTR's CFO said 
they had limited visibility on when that business will pick up 
again.  As you know, investors have been pretty rough on 
companies offering the "limited" or "no visibility" statements.  

Shares of ALTR have been dropping steadily the last couple of 
days and the down days have been on very heavy volume.  The stock 
moved from $22 to $19.28 last week before bouncing back to $22.  
After failing to re-achieve that support level the stock has now 
fallen through the $19.25 support level and we suspect it will be 
headed towards $17 shortly.  The point-and-figure chart offers a 
very favorable pattern for bears too.  ALTR had built a pennant 
formation but instead of breaking to the upside as it had down 
previously on its p-n-f chart this time the breakout was down.  
The surge downward was strong enough to pierce the rising bullish 
support line and the current bearish price target is near $15 or 
the September lows.  We're going to start the play with a stop at 
$20.55 but once we get more downside confirmation we'll adjust 
the stop lower.  Just in case shares get ahead of themselves 
we're going to add an exit price of $15.15.  

Picked on February 28th at $19.07 
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date            04/23/02 (unconfirmed)







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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Thursday 02-28-2002
                                                     section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Play:      ALTR, MRVL, MXIM
  Bullish Play Updates:  BBH
  Bearish Play Updates:  MSFT, PMCS

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  APA, CNF, COL, FRX, PD
  Bearish Play Updates:  LEH

High Risk / High Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMZN
  Bearish Play Updates:  ADLAC

Split Trader
  - none -


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) / Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------
  New Bearish
  -----------

Altera Corp - ALTR - close: 19.07 change: -0.92 stop: 20.55

Company Description:
Altera Corporation is the world's pioneer in system-on-a-
programmable-chip (SOPC) solutions. Combining programmable logic 
technology with software tools, intellectual property, and 
technical services, Altera provides high-value programmable 
solutions to approximately 14,000 customers worldwide. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Multiple factors are weighing down the semiconductor sector and 
the recent collapse in shares of ALTR have us looking for some 
follow through to much lower levels.  One easily identifiable 
bearish factor for the group was the breakdown in shares of 
Intel, which are commonly seen as a proxy for the chip sector 
since they are the biggest chip stock on the block.  With Intel 
closing under its 200-dma at the $29 level we see immediate 
weakness to the $27 level for the stock.  This might be enough to 
push the already weak SOX.X chip index through its support level 
at 500.  The last few months had seen the SOX trading range-bound 
between 500 and 600 with recent ranges closer to 560 to 500.  
ALTR is actually doing worse than the sector index and today's 
close under the $19.25 level is pretty negative.  In just the 
last few of days, ALTR and rival XLNX had been in the news when 
they gave guidance for the current quarter.  ALTR's was not much 
different than the guidance it gave in January when it said sales 
should rise 3% to 5% from the December quarter.  It's rival 
Xilinx (XLNX) said that they were expecting a 10% growth and this 
prompted a few upgrades for the stock.  While both XLNX and ALTR 
believe that customer inventories have bottomed ALTR's CFO said 
they had limited visibility on when that business will pick up 
again.  As you know, investors have been pretty rough on 
companies offering the "limited" or "no visibility" statements.  

Shares of ALTR have been dropping steadily the last couple of 
days and the down days have been on very heavy volume.  The stock 
moved from $22 to $19.28 last week before bouncing back to $22.  
After failing to re-achieve that support level the stock has now 
fallen through the $19.25 support level and we suspect it will be 
headed towards $17 shortly.  The point-and-figure chart offers a 
very favorable pattern for bears too.  ALTR had built a pennant 
formation but instead of breaking to the upside as it had down 
previously on its p-n-f chart this time the breakout was down.  
The surge downward was strong enough to pierce the rising bullish 
support line and the current bearish price target is near $15 or 
the September lows.  We're going to start the play with a stop at 
$20.55 but once we get more downside confirmation we'll adjust 
the stop lower.  Just in case shares get ahead of themselves 
we're going to add an exit price of $15.15.  

Picked on February 28th at $19.07 
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date            04/23/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Marvell Technology - MRVL - close: 30.69 change: -3.41 stop: *notes*

Company Description:
Marvell, a technology leader in the development of extreme 
broadband system-level IC solutions for Internet connectivity and 
infrastructure, comprises Marvell Technology Group Ltd. and its 
subsidiaries, including Marvell Semiconductor, Inc. (MSI), 
Marvell Asia Pte Ltd. (MAPL), Marvell Japan K.K., Marvell Taiwan 
Ltd., Marvell International Ltd. (MIL), and Galileo Technology 
Ltd. (GTL). On behalf of MIL, MSI designs, develops and markets 
integrated circuits utilizing proprietary Communications Mixed-
Signal Processing (CMSP) and digital signal processing 
technologies for communications signal processing markets. MAPL 
is headquartered in Singapore and is responsible for production, 
distribution and design operations. GTL develops high-performance 
communications Internetworking and Switching products for the 
broadband communications market. (source: company website)

Why We Like It:
If you read tonight's market wrap then you already know Bailey's 
opinion of Marvell Technologies (MRVL).  Forgive me if I repeat 
some of his material for those who choose to read the wrap later.  
Most obvious to readers looking at the point-and-figure chart is 
the downtrend from recent highs.  What they will also notice was 
today's decline produced a triple bottom sell signal and broke 
the rising bullish support line.  If you read the wrap this 
evening then you know that according to Professor Earl Davis' 
study the triple-bottom sell signal is profitable for a bearish 
trader 93.5% of the time, for an average gain of 23% in a 3.4-
month average time span.  This afternoon I showed Jeff a chart of 
MRVL as one of my bearish candidates and he got pretty excited.  
I can certainly understand his enthusiasm but this time I'm a bit 
more reserved and want MRVL to prove itself one more time.  
Instead of writing another four paragraphs about trading 
psychology and traders seeing what they want to in their charts 
versus being neutral I'm just going to keep this brief.  We are 
going to "go short" on MRVL if it trades at or below our trigger 
of $29.25.  This is below the $30 support level and its 200-dma.  
In addition to waiting for another downside confirmation with a 
breakdown of support I have another reason for waiting on the 
stock to move through our trigger.  MRVL just announced earnings 
this evening and earnings can always bring volatility and 
surprises.  Analysts had been expecting MRVL to post a gain of 5 
cents a share with revenue at $80.1M.  MRVL came out with 
earnings of 6 cents a share on revenue of $82.8M but this was 
excluding charges.  How Wall Street will interpret this news is 
unknown.  The first reaction was to bid up the stock and 
currently MRVL is trading near $31.30 in after hours.  Will 
investors take a sell-the-news approach to this report is 
something we need to be looking for.  If we do get triggered at 
$29.25 then we'll start with a stop at $32.21.  I would expect 
MRVL to trade $25 relatively easily (once triggered) but my exit 
price is near $20.

Picked on February  Xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date:           02/28/02 (confirmed)




---

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 45.76 change: -2.07 stop: 48.76

Company Description:
Established in 1983, Maxim Integrated Products is a worldwide 
leader in design, development, and manufacture of linear and 
mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs). Maxim circuits "connect" 
the real world and digital world by detecting, measuring, 
amplifying, and converting real-world signals, such as 
temperature, pressure, or sound, into the digital signals 
necessary for computer processing.  (source: company website)

Why We Like It:
In last night’s Watch List we discussed our bearish suspicions 
concerning INTC.  Those suspicions were confirmed today, as the 
chip giant lost 4.38% and broke under its 200-dma.  This weakness 
weighed heavily on other chip stocks, and the semiconductor index 
(SOX.X) finished the day with a 3.10% decline.  Although near-
term support at $27 convinced us not to add INTC as a play, we 
believe INTC will continue to lead semiconductor stocks lower.  
With this in mind, we’re initiating a short play on MXIM, which 
had previously broken through its own 200-dma.  Displaying even 
more weakness than INTC, MXIM has traded poorly since December, 
and today’s 4.32% decline pushed shares below recent support at 
$47, its 50% retracement level when looking at its September lows 
to its December highs.  Bearish positions could be considered on 
either failed rallies at $47 or a break below today’s low of 
$45.67.  The bearish price objective on its point-and-figure 
chart is pointing to a $42 target.  That's close enough to the 
$40 level that MXIM could overshoot its downside target and trade 
$40, which is a psychological level.  We do expect potential 
support near $43 but do not expect it to hold for very long (but 
shares might bounce).  Bears will probably hoping for a breakdown 
in the SOX under the 500 level, which has been support for 
months.  We will target the $40 level as our target with an 
initial stop loss at $48.76.  

*note*
Please note, that late this evening, MXIM chose to put out a 
press release that their Board of Directors has authorized the 
repurchase of its Common stock in the open market "from time to 
time".  The timing of this press release along with its 
suspicious lack of details like how many shares or what sort of 
dollar amount they plan to contribute to this plan seems very 
odd.  It makes the paranoid side of our brain believe it is a 
thinly veiled attempt by the management to temporarily prop up 
their stock price.  Look for any temporary strength on Friday 
morning before initiating a short position.  Our suggestion to 
consider failed rallies at $47 or $48 may be your best bet.

Picked on February 28th at $45.76 
Change since picked:        +0.00
Earnings Date:           02/05/02 (confirmed)





===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Biotech HOLDRs - BBH - close: 117.91 chg: -1.19 stop: 114.00 

Biotechs just can’t seem to shake broader weakness in the tech 
sector.  We were hoping Monday’s strength would lead to a 
breakout over $123, but those hopes were quickly dashed as the 
NASDAQ began to sink towards 1700.  Although this is frustrating, 
we like how the BBH has traded better than both the NASDAQ and 
BTK.X biotech index, which sold off after a brief jaunt over 
resistance at $500.  Furthermore, we haven’t seen the sharp 
selling that has plagued the networking and semiconductor sectors 
over the last two sessions.  Despite the relative strength of the 
BBH we are somewhat cautious on any bullish technology play.  The 
recent rally attempts have been failing at $123 and the stock 
can't close over the $122 level.  Thus, we don't see any 
compelling reason to enter a new position until the BBH can make 
a convincing move higher again.  While we wait for this to occur 
day trading types will be busy scalping the moves from $115 to 
$123.  Notable movers in the group today were IMCL +9.15%, CIMA 
+2.83%, HGSI +5.08%, and ABGX -12.37%.

Picked on February 20th at $120.00
Gain since picked:           -2.09
Earnings Date                  N/A





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Microsoft - MSFT - close: 58.34 change: -0.05 stop: 61.01

Indecisiveness in the broader market over the last two trading 
sessions has been mirrored by MSFT, which continues to trade in a 
narrow range of $58-$60.  Although we’re encouraged by the failed 
rallies at $60 and today’s lower high of $59.70, shares have also 
been setting higher lows since bottoming at $57 last Friday.  
This consolidation is beginning to look like something close to 
an ugly pennant formation and it suggests that MSFT is coiling 
for a strong move up or down.  New entries can be considered on a 
close under $58, although more aggressive traders may want to 
enter at current levels.  Resistance at $60 makes risk management 
particularly easy.  Keep an eye on the GSO.X software index, 
which was unable to break over resistance at 160. It appears to 
be heading down to test recent support at 148, and a break of 
this level would be a very negative development for the sector.

Picked on February 21st at $58.05 
Gain since picked:          -0.29
Earnings Date            01/17/02 (confirmed)




---

PMC Sierra - PMCS - close: 14.61 change: -1.03 stop: 16.05 *new*

We profiled PMCS as our Play of the Day last night based on both 
its inability to maintain gains from the beginning of the week, 
and the general weakness in networking/chip-related issues.  
While the NWX.X networking index moved down a small amount in 
tandem with the NASDAQ today, semiconductor weakness helped to 
push PMCS down another 6.58%.  This pushed shares below recent 
lows at $15.25, and psychological support at $15.  Frankly, we 
were surprised to see how little the bulls fought to maintain 
that level, but this sort of behavior has been typical of PMCS 
since we started this play.  It's been a fun ride but PMCS is 
fast approaching our bearish target at $14.15.  Considering that 
shares closed just above the lows for the day, we wouldn’t be 
surprised to see this level triggered tomorrow, at which point 
we’d exit with a tidy 31% move.  Note that we’re lowering our 
stop tonight to $16.05 in order to protect the majority of our 
gains.  If you like PMCS but would prefer to catch a trade that 
is still in the middle of its move then check out MXIM, ALTR and 
MVRL, all new plays tonight.

Picked on February 15th at $20.71
Gain since picked:          +6.10
Earnings Date            01/24/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) Non-tech stock section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Apache Corp - APA - close: 52.75 change: +0.45 stop: 49.95 *new*

During the recent market volatility and weakness in the Dow Jones 
and the Nasdaq, the oil sector has been holding up rather well.  
While it appears the OIX.X (closed near 307) has been inching 
higher the last couple of sessions it still has overhead 
resistance at its 200-dma currently at 308.  We believe this 
corresponds very closely with the price of oil.  The April 
contracts for sweet light crude has also been making gains but is 
just under its own price resistance at $22 a barrel.  Therefore, 
investors looking for new positions in the oil group or APA may 
want to wait for the OIX.X or the price per barrel to breakout 
above current resistance.  Fortunately for the bulls, shares of 
APA have been building on new support near the $52 level and a 
dip there looks like a great entry point but don't be surprised 
if the stock dips to its 10-dma at $51.60.  We are raising our 
stop to $49.95, which is just below the $50 level and APA's 200-
dma.

Picked on February 22nd at $51.57 
Change since picked:        +1.18
Earnings Date            01/31/02 (confirmed)




---

CNF Inc. - CNF - close: 31.01 change: -0.49 stop: 29.49 

The transport sector has been a big leader for the bulls this 
week and the Dow Transports closed at 2861 on Wednesday, which 
was a major breakout above the 2800 level of resistance.  
Thursday's performance was not so strong as the group fell to 
profit taking and the Dow Transports slipped 50 points to 2810 
but they remain above the 2800 level that should now become new 
support.  Shares of CNF mirrored the early move in the Transports 
but on Wednesday the stock was unable to overcome resistance at 
its 50-dma and the $32 level.  The profit taking that took place 
in the sector also contributed to the 50-cent drop in CNF.  If 
the Transports can hold above 2800 then we'll look for CNF to 
hold above 31.  Traders looking for new positions might want to 
watch for a bounce up from these levels otherwise a good bet may 
be to wait for the stock to get above its 50-dma.

Picked on February 22nd at $30.41 
Gain since picked:          +0.60
Earnings Date            01/28/02 (confirmed)




---

Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 23.25 change: +0.02 stop: 20.49

We've been keeping an eye on the DFX.X defense index, which has 
had a very bullish performance as investors count on the 
government to spend billions on both homeland defense and keeping 
our current military equipment updated or improved.  The sector 
has been very strong lately and we expect this strength to 
continue as renewed threats and the potential for military action 
in Iraq keep the thought of defense in the front of America's 
mind.  Is the group overbought?  Some stocks probably are, but 
COL looks a lot less extended than a few of its compatriots.  
Shares of Rockwell Collins have been moving higher in a nice 
trading channel but the recent closes over the $23 level of 
resistance might spark a new, sharper incline to the rise.  If 
you prefer to buy on the dip, then look for a dip to $22.  
Otherwise, look for the stock to move higher from the $23 level 
and merely adjust your stop tighter than we have suggested.  A 
close over $24 could have shorts in a panic since there should be 
no overhead supply.

Picked on February 15th at $22.50 
Gain since picked:          +0.75
Earnings Date            04/17/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Forest Labs - FRX - close: 79.52 change: +0.20 stop: 77.49

Our updates for FRX are beginning to sound like a broken record, 
but drug stocks just haven’t been able to rally in the face of 
broader market weakness.  However, the Pharmaceutical index 
(DRG.X) has been able to maintain current levels above 384, and 
should head higher if the market finally turns around.  FRX has 
been trading in a narrow range, and seems to be coiling tighter.  
With no clear indication of a breakout yet, we’d take a wait-and-
see approach to new positions. If you prefer to wait for some 
sign of upside movement then traders could take new positions on 
a close over $81, but lately the best entry has been bounces from 
$78, a level that has acted as support for over a month. 

Picked on February 15th at $82.58 
Gain since picked:          -3.06
Earnings Date            04/16/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Phelps Dodge - PD - close: 37.91 change: -0.15 stop: 37.43 *new*

On Tuesday we initiated this bullish play in anticipation of 
continued economic bullishness on Wednesday morning.  While we 
were looking for positive new homes sales to give an immediate 
boost to cyclicals, the numbers came in somewhat weak.  Thus, we 
were pleasantly surprised to see PD bounce anyway.  This may be 
due to the move in the copper futures (symbol: hg02h) which saw a 
similar bounce.  The bullish action was enough to push PD up to 
near-term resistance near $39, at which point it joined the 
broader market in a round of profit taking.  Although shares 
traded somewhat flat today, we like how it put in a new relative 
high. Traders looking for entries might consider new positions on 
moves above $38, while more conservative traders may prefer to 
wait for PD to trade above $39 or $40.  Note that our stop has 
been raised to break-even, at 37.43.  

Picked on February 21st at $37.43
Gain since picked:          +0.48
Earnings Date            01/30/02 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 56.50 chg: +0.44 stop: 58.03

Today’s market action saw the Broker/Dealer index (XBD.X) move 
higher, only to be thwarted by resistance near 470 and close with 
a meager gain of 2.62 points.  LEH traded in a similar fashion, 
as it moved up but failed to crack resistance at $58 (yet again).  
LEH saw some selling after its failed rally and retreated back to 
the $56.50 area.  We like the fact that shares have been unable 
to break through $58 and aggressive traders may want to consider 
these failed rallies from $58 as entry points.  However, the 
stock has been slowly posting higher lows, which is commonly seen 
as a bullish development.  Traders may want to wait for the stock 
to trade back under $56 or $55 before initiating any new 
positions.

Picked on February 15th at $58.03 
Gain since picked:          +1.53
Earnings Date            12/20/01 (confirmed)






==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amazon.com Inc. - AMZN - close: 14.10 change: -0.17 stop: 11.95

We may have been a bit too optimistic when we added that gap up 
protection clause on Tuesday.  Our initial write up on AMZN 
included a note that said we would not "go long" if AMZN gapped 
up above $14.75.  Shares did indeed open higher on Wednesday at 
$14.55 but the overall weakness in the tech market, specifically 
the Nasdaq, appears to be too much for AMZN to overcome.  The 
last two days have seen the stock peg new short-term overhead 
resistance at the $14.75 area.  Overall we're still bullish on 
the play and the pull back to the $14.00 area looks like a good 
entry point.  However, traders will be well advised to see what 
the broader market conditions are before committing any capital.  
One reader emailed us and asked us about a couple of issues that 
might be plaguing the stock.  We'd tried to reply but the email 
bounced back claiming an unknown address (so whoever you are, 
please double-check your return address).  His questions were 
about the recent earnings "profit" that was so widely debated 
even though shares traded significantly higher on the news.  
According to our reader, story is that some, all or part of the 
AMZN profits last quarter was due to investments/trading in the 
Euro and not from sales.  This may be 100% true but if the 
"market" believes AMZN is doing well and shares are trading 
higher for it, then that is the current investor sentiment.  As 
unfortunate as it is Wall Street is based on perceived reality 
and not hard facts.  It's highly probable that the quick sell-off 
from the earnings profit announcement was due to this news about 
the Euro trading facts coming to light.  We don't know but we 
made a point to say in the write up that we weren't going to 
focus on the "earnings" since we were not investing in AMZN but 
merely trading it.  Whatever the case, shares came back to the 
$11 level, found support, and have now begun to trade higher 
again.  His second question was concerning the recent Bezos sale 
of stock.  Jeff Bezos, the Chairman, President and CEO of AMZN, 
had filed to sell some 2.95 million shares valued at some $38 
million.  I believe the big news was over the size of the sale, 
which apparently was his biggest yet.  I agree that watching and 
monitoring insider selling can be crucial at times.  However, 
this sale only amounted to about 3 percent of his current 
holdings and if it were I, I'd diversify my own portfolio too.  
This news had come out last week but by Tuesday the stock was 
trading higher so we felt Wall Street didn't seem to have a 
problem with the news.  

Picked on February 26th at $14.40 
Gain since picked:          -0.30
Earnings Date            12/13/01 (confirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Adelphia Communications - ADLAC - cls: 21.95 chg: -0.05 stop: 22.55

Honestly, we were about to give up on this bearish play for 
ADLAC.  The stock continues to hover around the $22 level while 
never actually closing over it (it did close at $22 on 
Wednesday).  The bulls will quickly point out that the lows have 
been gaining ground and I would agree that this is a bullish sign 
of strength for the stock.  This had us thinking that we should 
shelve the play.  After all, ADLAC had not traded through our new 
price trigger to actually initiate the short.  Fortunately for 
the bears, fresh news out today may ignite some selling pressure 
in the stock.  Word has it that Adelphia and Comcast recently did 
a cable systems swap.  ADLAC's books say this transaction 
"produced" $519 million.  CMCSK stated the result of the swap 
with a pre-tax gain of $1.19 billion.  Since no cash actually 
traded hands this transaction sounds eerily familiar to the sort 
of swaps and trades that sent Global Crossing and Enron to the 
corporate graveyard.  We're not suggesting that ADLAC and CMCSK 
are going bankrupt but we're betting that investors might take a 
hard look at these transactions and in the meantime they may 
choose to park their money somewhere else.  News like this may 
have bears drooling but we are still going to stick with our 
current trigger of $20.99 before the newsletter is hypothetically 
short.  If we are triggered then our stop will be $22.55.  This 
way we have to see some sort of market reaction to the news.  If 
the market doesn't react then we are not short and we'll probably 
close the play on Friday for lack of favorable movement.

Picked on February Xth at $xx.xx <-- see trigger 
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           03/08/02 (unconfirmed)







==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

C       Citigroup                  45.25     +1.01
NVS     Novartis                   37.96     +0.87
DB      Deutsche Bank              58.84     +0.94
BKNG    Banknorth Group Inc        24.99     +0.82
AME     Ametek Inc                 34.52     +1.34

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PLL     Pall Corp                  19.52     +1.40
NUS     Nu Skin Enterprises        10.00     +1.65
ESL     Esterline Technology       19.90     +1.48
RSTO    Restoration Hardware       12.03     +1.11

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DEO     Diageo                     48.29     +1.71
OMC     Omnicom Group Inc          93.54     +1.36
DISH    Echostar Communications    26.12     +2.52
CEY     Certegy Inc                37.15     +2.04
TOL     Toll Brothers              49.04     +1.40

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TGT     Target Corp                41.90     -2.00
THC     Tenet Healthcare           57.75     -1.55
KMI     Kinder Morgan Inc          41.00     -5.20
SHPGY   Shire Pharmaceuticals      23.78     -8.67

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

GIS     General Mills Inc          46.23     -1.13
MME     Mid-Atlantic Medical Srvcs 26.61     -1.36



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