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Daily Newsletter, Friday, 03/01/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 03-01-2002
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Early March winds filled the sails.
Play-of-the-Day:  Looking For Something Fresh?
Watch List:       ADBE, FDX, AMAT, WY and Much More!
Market Sentiment: Resistance broken.

------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
------------------------------------------------------------------
        WE 3-01          WE 2-22          WE 2-15           WE 2-8
DOW    10368.86 +400.71  9968.15 + 65.11  9903.04 +158.80  -163.02
Nasdaq  1802.74 + 78.20  1724.54 - 80.66  1805.20 - 13.68  - 92.36
S&P-100  576.16 + 22.12   554.04 -  5.61   559.65 +  2.37  - 12.07
S&P-500 1131.78 + 41.94  1089.84 - 14.34  1104.18 +  7.96  - 25.98
W5000  10560.01 +380.72 10179.29 -136.19 10315.48 + 66.16  -240.85
RUT      478.34 + 13.27   465.07 -  4.18   469.25 +  2.58  - 13.37
TRAN    2897.13 +171.48  2725.65 + 41.42  2684.23 + 24.29  - 99.39
VIX       22.13 -  2.76    24.89 +   .80    24.09 -  1.38  +  2.60
VXN       41.94 -  6.63    48.57 +  3.58    44.99 -  4.29  +  6.20
TRIN       0.74             1.33             1.89              .64
TICK      +1029            +1044             -128             +957  
Put/Call    .94              .90              .73   
------------------------------------------------------------------
WE= week ended

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Early March winds filled the sails

Bulls staged an impressive rally today as stronger than expected 
economic data at the nation's manufacturers picked up at a 
healthy pace in February.  Today's stronger than expected ISM 
data served as a steady wind to fill the sails of many stocks and 
have them closing near their session highs.  While there was 
undoubtedly some bulls in the marketplace doing some buying, some 
strong gains in recently battered sectors also hints that bears 
were doing some of the buying and closing out some positions.

By session's end, there was a lot of "green on the computer 
screen" as the major market averages and various indexes showed 
solid gains.  If only not for some disappointing news on the 
earnings front from biotech Protein Design Labs (PDLI) $14.94 -
5.8%, might the Biotech Index (BTK.X) 477.09 -0.43% have made it 
a gusty one-day victory for the bulls.

If you had told me yesterday that the Institute for Supply 
Management Index (ISM) was going to show a healthy 54.7% reading 
for February compared to January's reading of 49.9%, I would have 
placed some short-term bets on some beaten down technology 
stocks, but picking some bottoms in recent months has left many a 
bull looking at a new one not too long after.

For traders and investors that have been around awhile, it is 
also a fear that you will have sold a bottom and that too can 
cause investors/traders to get a little frantic.  After closing 
at a new 52-week low yesterday, the Fiber Optic Index (FOP.X) 
found the early March wind lifting its boat to a 6.2% gain.  The 
rise came despite news from Sprint (NYSE:FON) that it would 
further reduce capital expenditures in the coming months.  The 
stronger economic data had bears running to lock in some gains 
that soon evaporated as the session unfolded.  Yesterday, our 
bearish "fiber-related" and Fiber Optic Index component, PMC-
Sierra (NASDAQ:PMCS) actually turned an early morning loss into a 
10% gain by session's end.  While it would have been nice to keep 
that extra 10%, we understood the risk, but a 22.5% gain from 
profiled isn't too bad either.

Unfortunately our play list needed that gain as our 
semiconductor-related bearish play in Maxim Integrated Products 
(NASDAQ:MXIM) gapped higher at the open to $46.65, traded through 
our stop of $48.67 and pegged a session high at the close at 
$50.58 +10.75, and kept pace with the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 
gain of 11%.  There are worse things in live than shorting a 
stock that gaps higher and then strengthens on some type of 
bullish news.  One that comes to mind is shorting a stock that 
gaps higher and then strengthens on some type of news and a stop 
was never placed on the trade.  That creates uncertainty going 
forward and brings into play emotion.  

Maxim Integrated Products Chart - Daily Interval




I had a sinking feeling in my stomach this morning when Maxim's 
(MXIM) stock gapped marginally higher at the open and we hadn't 
placed a trigger on this trade.  The 30-minute chart seems to 
show how market makers may have let the stock rally to 
retracement of $47.11 just prior to the 10:00 AM release of the 
ISM report.  When the report came in as "economically bullish" 
then market makers undoubtedly assessed their risk to the next 
level of retracement at $51.30.  So did most other market 
participants interested in the stock as bullishness carried on 
into the close.  Had the ISM data been a disappointment things 
may have turned out different.  From here we'll monitor the stock 
near-term, but at present we would look to avoid the stock.  If 
MXIM looks to have problems at the $51.30 area in coming 
sessions, we may give the stock another trade from the bearish 
side, but will take a seat on the sidelines for now.

What we did wrong in our play list on Maxim (MXIM) by not setting 
a trigger point, we did right on Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) 
as that stock didn't hit our trigger and it too rallied from 
recent relative low.

Should we have been looking long these technology high flyers?  
Have we missed the move in technology?  For those that have been 
following along for the past several weeks, that question is a 
resounding no.  Our weekly spreadsheet makes it clear that a 
patient bull won't need to "buy a bottom" to make money in the 
future.

Let's take a look at the weekly change and compare it to the 
yearly changes to see what may be some areas to trade near-term.

Weekly market averages/sector performance




I've made one change to our weekly market spreadsheet.  I've now 
changed the yearly benchmark "Since 12/31/01" to reflect the 
closes found on the December 31st, 2001 instead of Friday, 
December 28th.  From here on out, we will use that as a point to 
help us see just where things are on a weekly change basis and a 
truer year 2002 change.

As you can see, it was a bullish week for many of the indexes.  
Sector weakness on the week was Healthcare and Biotech.  It may 
be interesting to note that the Biotech Index (BTK.X) fell -2.1% 
this past week, yet the Biotech HOLDRS (AMEX:BBH) which we have 
profiled as bullish in our play list rose fractionally this week 
with a 1.2% gain.  Last Friday the BBH closed at $117.85 and 
finished today's session with a 1.24% gain at $119.38 (see play 
update).  The BBH looks range-bound right now from $115 to $125, 
but any break from that range could be exciting.  We've got our 
stop firm at $114 to keep us from participating in any excitement 
to the downside.  It was a wild week for the biotechs with some 
good news and bad news in the sector, which helped bring on a Dr. 
Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde type of environment.  If you own the Biotech 
HOLDRS (AMEX:BBH) then this is how your "basket of biotechs" 
looked today.

Biotech HOLDRS - # of representative shares




Just as we've looked at the Dow Industrials components as a 
hypothetical portfolio, we can look at the Biotech HOLDRS (BBH) 
an analyze the various components, then look to see what may be 
bullish or bearish within a narrower sector.  The basis, cost and 
P/L% are hypothetical values from the February 20th close when we 
profiled the BBH as bullish.  In essence, that's our benchmark 
and we can take a snapshot look to see what has taken place.

If you did trade long the BBH, then you're monitoring those 
stocks that make up the "bulk" of your investment dollar.  I've 
place blue Up/Down arrows by those stocks that really represent 
the "bulk" of the BBH.  The good news so far as that all the "red 
down arrows" at the far right (profit/loss) are concentrated in 
the "smaller positions" and their declines since the February 
20th close has had a negative impact on things, but not to a 
large extent.  The "bulk" of the exposure to a BBH bull has 
shares of Genzyme (GENZ) down -5.56%, while the rest of the 
weighted exposure has most upper tier stocks showing mixed 
results.  The two stocks that stand out right now are Genzyme 
(GENZ) which has been underperforming, while IDEC Pharmaceutical 
(IDPH), Chiron (CHIR) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) have been 
pulling their weight and acting more bullish since February 20th.  

From those stocks listed above, I think a bull in the group finds 
an attractive bullish play in shares of IDEC Pharmaceutical 
(NASDAQ:IDPH) and waits for a trade at $66.

IDEC Pharmaceuticals Chart - $1 box




Next week I'd have an alert set on shares of IDPH at $66, which 
would be a spread triple-top buy signal.  This stock looks to 
have made a rather major reversal from the $51 level and has 
started setting a series of higher highs and higher lows.  The 
stock looks like it is under accumulation and institutions are 
working her patiently up the scale.  With a longer-term bullish 
vertical count of $76, a trade at the $66 level could bring some 
substantial buyers to the table and provide for a nice move 
higher.  Support should be firming at the $60 level, which also 
coincides with a trending higher 200-day moving average.  If 
you're a Biotech HOLDRS (BBH) this may be one stock to look for 
some near-term leadership from.

The week ahead

On Monday, I'll be tuned in and watching Treasuries very closely.  
This past week, the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) moved higher (selling 
in the bond) and finished the week with a 4.971% YIELD.  As Eric 
Utley pointed out in today's 01:30 update, it looks like 
something is about to "give" in the bond market.  A break out of 
the recent YIELD range in this bond could send the market in the 
directional break of YIELD.  Today's 10-year YIELD close came 
right at its flattening out 200-day moving average and beginning 
to roll-over 50-day moving average.  We've seen the bond market 
action have some significant impact on stock market action in the 
past so keep your eyes peeled.  Billions of dollars have rotated 
to the perceived safety of Treasuries in the past 18-months.

10-year YIELD Chart - Weekly Interval




This could be the week that we get some type of further 
meaningful message from the bond market.  Billions, make that 
trillions, of dollars rotated into Treasuries starting in January 
of 2000 and looks to finally have found selling in November of 
last year.  With strong economic data this week, the 10-year 
found some selling and stocks also responded to the upside.

The groups that look to be attracting the cash from our weekly 
sector watch are Gold/Silver stocks, Airlines/Transports, 
Forest/Paper, Oil/Oil Service and Semiconductor.  I need to add 
the Defense Index (DFI.X) to our list as it has shown a 13% gain 
since the December 31st close.

Gold stocks can be quite "fickle," but with the economic data 
showing strength, it is not out of the question that market 
participants and "smart money" may have been playing this group 
as an "inflation" play all along.  Today's jump in the ISM data 
was quite strong and much stronger than many had expected.  As 
explained in previous commentary, the question that remains to be 
answered, and will eventually be answered as more economic data 
come out, is "is the growth sustainable, or just a near-term blip 
due to replenishing of inventories?"  

The answer may come from the bond market this week.  Treasuries 
can be a terrible investment relative to stocks if economic 
growth is robust.  Who wants to own a lower YIELDING Treasury 
bond if economic growth is strong?  The weekly 10-year YELD chart 
above tells us that from October 5, 1998 to January 21, 2000, 
bonds saw a lot of selling as that cash rotated to stocks as the 
economy boomed and earnings (in some cases hopes of earnings) 
were strong.

We're going to continue to place the bulk of our bullish bets on 
stocks in those groups that have been attracting the bulk of the 
capital.  We're looking for stocks with good relative strength 
versus the broader market (S&P 500) and within their appropriate 
sectors.

As you can see from the weekly spreadsheet data, there is plenty 
of time to get long many technology areas and we don't need to 
try and pick bottoms.

The semiconductors are looking better and today's upgrade and 
revised higher earnings for Micron Technology (NYSE:MU) $36.29 
+12.87% was rather astounding.  Thomas Weisel Partners 
dramatically increased its firms earnings estimates on the stock 
for fiscal 2002 and forecasted the MU to earn $1.55 a share, up 
from prior estimate for a loss of $-0.05 a share, and raised 
fiscal 2003 to $4.00 a share, from $1.35.  The firm also raised 
its 12-months price target to $60 from $45.

One stock I've commented on in recent weeks in this group to be 
looking long are shares of Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) $47.98 
+10.37.  The point figure chart has been rather bullish in recent 
weeks and I feel this is one of the "safer" bets for bulls 
looking for exposure to the group.  Subscriber's may remember how 
I was "hoping" for a pullback to the $37-$38 level in January as 
an entry point, but the stock never did cooperate.  The recent 
two pullbacks to $42 have found buyers and a break above $49 
would be a rather powerful longer-term buy signal and spread-
quadruple-top.

I'd like to get a chance to buy the stock on a pullback, but if 
Treasuries see selling (higher YIELD as a result) then some cash 
from the bond market may flow toward AMAT and I'd be looking long 
at $49, or a pullback at $44-$45 and stop at $41.

If Micron Technology (MU) is going to be earning $4.00 a share in 
2003 as Thomas Weisel Partners believes, then Micron may be in 
the market for some semiconductor equipment in order to meet the 
demand for its memory chip manufacturing!

Have a great weekend.  I think next week will be quite 
interesting.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================
(( this is a new non-tech play for the weekend ))

Dole Food Co. - DOL - close: 30.94 change: +1.41 stop: 28.49

Company Description:
Founded in Hawaii in 1851, Dole Food Company, Inc. (NYSE: DOL), 
with 2001 revenues of $4.5 billion, is the world's largest 
producer and marketer of high-quality fresh fruit, fresh 
vegetables and fresh-cut flowers, and markets a growing line of 
packaged foods. The Company does business in more than 90 
countries and employs approximately 61,000 people worldwide. 
(source: company website)

Why We Like It:
Dole ended the week by exploding almost 5% on high volume and 
closing above resistance at $30.  We searched for some news 
explaining this strong move, but came up empty-handed.  The close 
over $30 is a positive technical development, and with the daily 
stochastics heading up and MACD on the verge of giving a buy 
signal, we’re adding DOL to the Play List tonight.  We like the 
way shares have traded since November and given the many positive 
technical developments, we think DOL will continue to trade 
higher in the near-term.  Our initial profit target is near $34, 
at which point we’d take a juicy 10% profit.  We’re starting this 
play with a stop at $28.49.  Readers should take note that the 
bottle-rocket rise on Friday is not sustainable.  The best way to 
play this is to look for a pull back to $30.50 or $30.25 and then 
evaluate a bullish entry when shares begin to tick higher again.

Picked on March 1st at $30.94 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        01/31/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 35.54 change: +2.16

WHAT TO WATCH: This one almost made our play list tonight.  We’ve 
been keeping an eye on ADBE because of its recent relative 
strength versus the GSO.X software index.  What we’ve been 
anticipating is for shares to close above $38.25.  The $38 level 
is a key level that has acted as support during the middle of 
last year and has been staunch resistance since.  It also 
corresponds to a key retracement level from its summer 2001 highs 
to September lows.  Well, we finally got that close over $38.25 
on Friday and with MSFT also heading higher we find ADBE a very 
attractive play candidate.  However, following ORCL’s profit 
warning after the market Friday evening, we decided it would be 
more prudent to first wait and see how ADBE reacts to this news 
on Monday.  If shares are able to maintain strength in the face 
of the negative sector news, we’ll likely be adding this on to 
our play list on Monday night.  Honestly, we don’t think the ORCL 
news will weigh too heavily on ADBE but we'd rather be patient.  
The group has seen its share of bad news for quite some time and 
Friday’s announcement was just more of the same albeit from a 
bellwether. 




---

FedEx Corp - FDX - close: 58.45 change: +0.59

WHAT TO WATCH: If you’ve followed along with Jeff Bailey’s 
commentary over the past week, you know that the Dow Transports 
(TRAN) have been strong.  Friday’s bullishness saw the index 
close at levels not seen since August.  FDX has traded in a 
similar fashion and closed on Friday at a new 52-wk high on 
strong volume of 2 million shares.  At this point, we’d be 
reluctant to chase FDX, since $60 may act as resistance.  
However, a pullback to $55-$56 could afford a nice entry.  On the 
same note, we’re also watching FDX rival, Airborne Inc 
(NYSE:ABF).  ABF also managed to close at a 52-week high on 
Friday ($18.70) and looks to be heading towards $20.  A pullback 
to $18 would be a good time to consider an entry with a tight 
stop since ABF is short-term overbought.




---

Applied Materials - AMAT - close: 47.98 change: +4.51

WHAT TO WATCH: Another stock we like is AMAT.  While specialized 
chip companies have taken a beating recently, this semiconductor 
equipment manufacturer hasn’t seen that type of dramatic sell-
off.  As a matter of fact, shares are now threatening to break 
over resistance at $48, which has held since last August.  If the 
semiconductor index (SOX.X) manages to build on today’s gains, 
AMAT could finally crack that level.  We’d be looking for a close 
over $48 for confirmation.  From a fundamental perspective, AMAT 
seems well positioned to benefit from the sort of increased 
productivity implied by yesterday’s MU and NVLS news.  Additional 
signs of increased demand in the sector could easily see AMAT 
challenging last year’s high of $59.  Charts readers will note 
that a move above $49.00 will be a triple-top breakout on the 
point-and-figure chart.  More conservative traders may want to 
wait for shares to close over $50 since it is a potential 
psychological level for investors.




---

Weyerhaeuser Co - WY - close: 62.23 change: +0.41

WHAT TO WATCH:  Shares of this forest products company have 
really been moving lately.  We like how WY moved up to resistance 
at $62.50 in February, pulled back, and traded right back to this 
level.  A glance at the Forest & Paper index (FPP.X) reveals the 
strength of the sector - its up 9.1% for the year and closed at 
levels not seen for over two years.  This strength mirrors 
similar moves in the Dow Transports (TRAN) and the cyclical index 
(CYC.X), which also reflect improving expectations for the 
economy.  In targeting entries on WY, we like trigger points at 
$62.76 and $63.01 (just over recent highs of $62.75) to initiate 
new bullish positions.  By waiting for a move over $63.00 traders 
can get confirmation with a triple-top breakout on the PnF chart.






=============
MORE TO WATCH   (additional candidates)
=============

Bullish Candidates
------------------

IDPH - Look for shares to break over $66 again.  Would be a break
       out on the point-and-figure.  Possible move to $72.50.

BAC  - Look for move over $65. Would be a quadruple top breakout 
       on the p-n-f chart and a breakout on the daily chart.

AHP  - Not a fast mover but should have reduced risk.  Look for 
       move over $65.  MACD just produced bullish crossover.

ABT  - Another drug company that looks good but failed to really
       participate in the DRG.X rally on Friday.  Wait for move over
       resistance at $58.  

APD  - Has broken out over $49.00.  Looks like a potential bullish
       play.  P-n-f bullish price target is currently $70.

YUM  - several stocks in the restaurants look attractive.  YUM is
       at resistance.  Look for pull back to $56 and then consider
       bounce for potential entry.

DRI  - Another restaurant stock with incredible strength.  We would
       wait for pull back to $40 or its 30-dma then confirm the bounce
       before considering a play.

PCAR - We wanted to play this one on the break over $70.  Now we'd
       rather wait for pull back to $70 before chasing it.

NAV  - Same industry as PCAR.  Short-term oversold.  Look for pull
       back and bounce at $41.

AVP  - Breakout over $50 on decent volume the last few days.  We'd
       keep an eye on it for a pull back to $50.  Not a fast mover.

KLAC - Don't know how much faith to put into the chip rally on Friday
       but a pull back to $60.00 or $61.00 might be a decent entry.

EDS  - Friday produced a break in the short-term bearish trend and a 
       close above the $60 resistance level.  Lots of overhead 
       resistance still above it but it bears watching.

EMR  - Really like this one!  p-n-f already showing a triple-top 
       breakout.  We'd wait for a close over $60, which would break
       resistance from the gap down in July that has already been 
       filled but not broken.  

AMWD - We're mad at ourselves for letting this one get away from us.
       The breakout on Monday was perfect and the rally all week long
       has been on huge volume.  Should be the start of a new trend.
       Hard to chase with a +10% gain but shows no weakness.


Bearish Candidates
------------------

X    - Metal stocks fell out of favor just recently although this 
       one hasn't been that strong to begin with.  Could fall to
       $16.00 quickly.

NKE  - Stock is looking tired.  MACD already bearish.  Inability to
       reclaim $60 level is bad sign.  A close under the 50-dma 
       might be the signal to short.

RBK  - Similar play as NKE but looks more negative.  Approaching
       the 200-dma quickly.  Friday's decline on strong volume.

HMA  - Ugly chart is showing another breakdown...this time under
       $17.50.  could fall to $16.00.

MCK  - Bearish candlestick pattern and failed rally at 10-dma
       plus the close back under $34 all sound like a recipe for
       a short play.  Watch for move under $33.

ANPI - We didn't read the news on the gap down Monday but shares
       have failed to recover even with Friday's rally.  A close
       under $40 may be worth a new bearish entry.

CYH  - The breakdown under $22 looks very bearish and volume was
       decent.  Shares could potentially rally back to $22 and a
       rollover there could offer a low risk short.  Otherwise, 
       look for move under $21.



================
Market Sentiment
================

Resistance broken.
by Russ Moore

After two days of seeing early gains evaporate today’s big time 
move was a welcome relief for the bulls.

Bolstered by a very bullish ISM report, the major indices took 
off and never looked back. The DOW was able to breakthrough its 
long-standing barrier of 10,300 finishing with a gain of +2.6 
percent. The NASDAQ fared even better with a +4.1 percent 
advance. Big cap techs were on the move and that powered the NDX 
to a +5.6 percent performance.

Volume was decent but still not at a level indicative of 
Commercial support. The NYSE traded 1.43 billion shares while the 
NASDAQ saw 1.89 billion shares change hands. Winners pummeled 
losers by a margin of 22/9 on the big board and 23/12 on the tech 
index.

All sectors finished in the green with the Biotechs being the 
lone exception. Chips, Internet and airlines turned in star 
performances.

The ISM number was the "catalyst du jour", giving investors and 
fund managers another sign that things may be improving. The 
other piece of data released today was the Michigan Sentiment 
number. The index fell to 90.7 from last month’s 93.0.

With an economic recovery seemingly underway and a major 
resistance area broken, we could be in for a near-term rally. 
Sustainability becomes the big issue now. If the markets can hold 
current levels without collapsing, investor confidence will grow. 
A month of positive growth on Wall Street will go a long way 
toward bringing more money into the market.

Evidence that this rally is for real will come from volume 
levels. Next week’s numbers need to show at least a couple of +2 
billion dollar days in order to convince the “I don’t want to 
miss the train” crowd to get on board.

VIX
Friday 03/01 close: 21.61


VXN
Friday 03/01 close: 42.03


10-yr Bonds
Friday 03/01 close: 4.97


Total Put/Call Ratio:  .66


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio:  .53


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.25


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 35.74

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/128,708
Maximum puts : 35/114,263

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 34
 20 DMA 35
 50 DMA 38
200 DMA 39

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 43.24 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  34.97 (02/08/02)
38% 38.13
50% 39.11
62% 40.10

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 576.16

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 580/7,561
Maximum puts : 510/6,605

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  559
 20 DMA  559
 50 DMA  573
200 DMA  591

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 600.80 (01/04/02)
Relative Low:  546.13 (01/30/02)
38% 567.00
50% 573.44
62% 579.99

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1131.78

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1150/39,271
Maximum puts : 1100/52,120

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1102
 20 DMA 1102
 50 DMA 1126
200 DMA 1152

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1176.97 (01/07/02)
Relative Low:  1077.78 (02/06/02)
38% 1115.67
50% 1127.37
62% 1139.27

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close: 10,368.86

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/18,500
Maximum Puts    96/38,149

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA 10,025
 20 DMA  9,914
 50 DMA  9,944
200 DMA 10,033

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 10,300.15 (01/07/02)
Relative Low    9,529.46 (01/30/02)
38%  9,823.86
50%  9,914.80
62% 10,007.28

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 477.09

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/959
Maximum Puts:  520/931

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 487
 20 DMA 490
 50 DMA 527
200 DMA 541

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 625.15 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  450.20 (02/07/02)
38% 517.03
50% 537.67
62% 558.66

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 510.83

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 550/1,213
Maximum Puts:  500/1,292

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 532
 20 DMA 539
 50 DMA 543
200 DMA 546

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 606.88 (01/09/02)
Relative Low:  499.09 (01/22/02)
38% 540.26
50% 552.98
62% 565.91

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 391.68

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/550
Maximum Puts:  380/500

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 383
 20 DMA 378
 50 DMA 379
200 DMA 389

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 403.83 (11/26/01)
Relative Low:  365.22 (02/08/02)
38% 379.93
50% 384.51
62% 389.17

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 03/01. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/12/02     355,276   412,868   (57,592)    6.6%
02/19/02     355,905   772,569   (60,759)    5.5%
02/26/02     366,258   432,258   (66,000)    9.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/12/02       126,730    59,902    66,828     4.7%
02/19/02       130,856    63,311    67,545     1.1%
02/26/02       139,183    62,087    77,096    14.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/12/02      32,712    34,841    (2,129)    (30.1%)
02/19/02      33,871    35,690    (1,819)    (14.6%)
02/26/02      33,589    34,091      (502)    (72.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/12/02        9,009     7,415    1,594    (29.0%)
02/19/02        9,966     8,073    1,893     18.8%
02/26/02        9,517    11,416   (1,899)  

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/12/02      26,811    16,488   10,323      5.3%
02/19/02      29,606    17,953   11,653     12.9%
02/26/02      33,322    21,110   12,212      4.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/12/02       4,562    10,038    (5,476)     15.0%
02/19/02       4,654    10,431    (5,777)      5.5%
02/26/02       6,333    12,547    (6,214)      7.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +77,096     +67,545        -66,000    -60,759

Total Open
Interest %       (+38.30%)  (+34.79%)      (-8.26%)   (-7.86%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -6,214     -5,777          +12,212   +11,653
Total Open
interest %       (-32.91%)    (-38.29)      (+22.43%)  (+24.50)
                 net-short   net-short       net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         -1,899      +1,893       -502    -1,819

Total Open
Interest %        (-9.07%)   (+10.49%)     (-.74%) (-2.61%)
                 net-short   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Commercials and Small Specs were moving in opposite 
directions this week as the big players added to their net-short 
positions while the Small Specs increased their long exposure. 

With bullish economic data becoming more prevalent, it’ll be 
interesting to follow Commercial activity over the coming weeks. 
If we don’t see some commitment from these players I would be 
extremely suspect of a sustained rally taking place.

Gold:.. 

02/05 58,180 contracts net-short
02/12 62,223 contracts net-short
02/19 60,054 contracts net-short
02/26 56,409 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 02/26 by the CFTC.



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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 03-01-2002
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates: BBH
  Closed Bearish Plays: ALTR, MXIM, MRVL, PMCS, MSFT

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Plays:    DOL, IBI, USFC
  Bullish Play Updates: APA, CNF, COL
  Bearish Play Updates: LEH
  Closed Bullish Plays: FRX, PD

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates: AMZN
  Closed Bearish Plays: ADLAC

Split Trader
  - none -


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Biotech HOLDRs - BBH - close: 119.45 chg: +1.54 stop: 114.00

One would expect the BTK.X biotech index to have taken part in 
the tech rally on Friday, but that just wasn’t the case.  Moves 
lower in stocks such as PDLI (-5.86%) contributed to a down day 
for the sector, and the index shed -0.43%.  Thus, we were please 
to see the BBH actually manage a gain.  The difference in 
performance can be explained by the fact that the 20 stocks 
representing the BBH traded better than the broader biotech 
sector.  If the Dow and Nasdaq continue higher next week, the BBH 
may have a chance at breaking out above $123, but if not we’ll 
likely see shares continue to vacillate between $122 and $115.  
Leading the BBH higher today were GILD (+4.66%) and BGEN (+
2.59%), offsetting losses by AFFX (-4.75%) and SHPGY (-5.80%).  
FYI:  The largest holdings the in BBH are AMGN, DNA, IMNX, IDPH, 
CHIR, and BGEN.

Picked on February 20th at $120.00
Gain since picked:           -0.55
Earnings Date                  N/A





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Altera Corp - ALTR - close: 20.76 change: +1.69 stop: 20.55 

Ouch, ouch, ouch!  The chip sector exploded on Friday with the 
SOX.X semiconductor index gaining 11% to close at 566 (and this 
is an index!).  The big move was fueled by a number of positive 
developments almost overnight in the group.  Topping the 
headlines was a mid-quarter update from NVLS, which claimed it 
continues to see signs of an industry recovery and management had 
raised their Q1 bookings and revenue guidance. Naturally, they 
claim this will help them post a narrower-than-expected loss.  
Another earnings mover was fellow short-play candidate, MRVL.  
MRVL ended the day up 15% after its Thursday evening earnings 
report.  The numbers didn't seem that strong but Merrill Lynch, 
JP Morgan and CIBC World Markets all upgraded the stock.  And if 
that wasn't enough, Micron rocketed higher with a 12.9% gain 
after Thomas Weisel analysts raised estimates on the company 
based on belief that DRAM pricing would be increasing.  It didn't 
matter that just a week ago ALTR did not offer any guidance while 
their competitor XLNX raised theirs.  Even though ALTR is 
probably underperforming the group when it comes to business the 
stock price reacted strongly and stopped us out at $20.55.  The 
meteoric rise in the stock price Friday morning would have been 
pretty tough to short with any sort of confidence.  

Picked on February 28th at $19.07
Gain since picked:          -1.48
Earnings Date            04/23/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 50.68 change: +4.92 stop: 48.76

If you read the ALTR update then most of this is a repeat.  A 
virtual blizzard of good news swirled around the semiconductor 
group today, quickly burying our MXIM short play.  Upbeat 
comments from NVLS, wildly positive comments from Thomas Weisel 
on MU, and positive news from INTC all served to fuel an 11.04% 
rise in the semiconductor index (SOX.X).  We weren’t surprised to 
see MXIM also bounce higher on this news, but had expected to see 
more resistance near yesterday’s highs of $48.60.  Although our 
stop at $48.76 was left in the dust, we’re still cautious on this 
chip stock.  Today’s sharp rally smacks of short-covering, and 
we’d look for shares to roll over again near $51 as the near-term 
stochastics turn down from overbought.  However, we’d wait for 
sector sentiment to simmer down before reconsidering a short 
position.

Picked on February 28th at $45.76
Gain since picked:          -3.00
Earnings Date            02/05/02 (confirmed)


 

--- 

Marvell Technology - MRVL - close: 35.39 change: +4.70 stop: N/A

As outlined in our other short updates, semiconductor bears 
didn’t stand much of a chance today after multiple positive news 
stories in the sector.  Fortunately for this short play, our 
trigger for new positions at $29.25 was never reached.  Its 
difficult to tell how much of today’s 15.31% move can be 
attributed to last night’s earnings release, but the multiple 
upgrades MRVL received today certainly didn’t help this short.  
The purpose of our trigger was to avoid getting caught in this 
sort of sharp post-earnings move.  MRVL has some resistance 
directly overhead at $36, but for now we’ll be stepping aside to 
avoid getting gored by the bulls.

Picked on February Xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:          +0.00
Earnings Date            02/28/02 (confirmed)




--- 

PMCS Sierra - PMCS - close: 16.09 change: +1.48 stop: 16.05

It had to happen eventually.  PMCS finally managed a large enough 
bounce to trigger our new stop at $16.05.  Like most 
semiconductor stocks, PMCS rallied strongly today on the positive 
sector news.  However, brief weakness this morning was enough to 
move shares within 20 cents of our bearish target of $14.15, 
which afforded nimble traders a better exit point.  While we 
would have preferred to be stopped out at our profit target, 
we’ll gladly close the play with a 22.5% move and start looking 
for the next high-odds play.  PMCS could easily resume its 
downtrend on Monday, but today’s trading illustrates the 
importance of continually tightening stops to avoid losing 
profits on a sudden short squeeze. If the rally continues for the 
chips we would look for resistance between $17 and $17.25 for 
PMCS.

Picked on February 15th at $20.71
Gain since picked:          +4.66
Earnings Date              01/24/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Microsoft - MSFT - close: 61.37 change: +3.03 stop: 61.01

In last night’s update we discussed the way MSFT had been coiling 
between $58-$60.  Shares finally broke out of that range today, 
but not in the direction we had hoped.  With the Dow Jones and 
NASDAQ both sporting large rallies, it isn’t hard to see how MSFT 
was able to tack on about 3%.  Despite this rally, our stop 
wasn’t hit until some heavy buying kicked in during the final 
half hour of trading.  There is plenty of overhead resistance for 
MSFT, but these levels could be quickly overpowered if broader 
market bullishness continues.  Even though the GSO.X software 
index added 5% today, near-term resistance is directly overhead 
at Thursday’s highs of 164 and its 15-dma.   

Picked on February 21st at $58.05
Gain since picked:          -2.96
Earnings Date              01/17/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT New Plays
===============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Dole Food Co. - DOL - close: 30.94 change: +1.41 stop: 28.49

Company Description:
Founded in Hawaii in 1851, Dole Food Company, Inc. (NYSE: DOL), 
with 2001 revenues of $4.5 billion, is the world's largest 
producer and marketer of high-quality fresh fruit, fresh 
vegetables and fresh-cut flowers, and markets a growing line of 
packaged foods. The Company does business in more than 90 
countries and employs approximately 61,000 people worldwide. 
(source: company website)

Why We Like It:
Dole ended the week by exploding almost 5% on high volume and 
closing above resistance at $30.  We searched for some news 
explaining this strong move, but came up empty-handed.  The close 
over $30 is a positive technical development, and with the daily 
stochastics heading up and MACD on the verge of giving a buy 
signal, we’re adding DOL to the Play List tonight.  We like the 
way shares have traded since November and given the many positive 
technical developments, we think DOL will continue to trade 
higher in the near-term.  Our initial profit target is near $34, 
at which point we’d take a juicy 10% profit.  We’re starting this 
play with a stop at $28.49.  Readers should take note that the 
bottle-rocket rise on Friday is not sustainable.  The best way to 
play this is to look for a pull back to $30.50 or $30.25 and then 
evaluate a bullish entry when shares begin to tick higher again.

Picked on March 1st at $30.94 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        01/31/02 (confirmed)




---

Intimate Brands Inc - IBI - close: 20.17 change: +0.84 stop: 18.89

Company Description:
Intimate Brands, Inc. is a specialty retailer of women's apparel, 
lingerie and personal care products. IBI operates primarily under 
the Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works brand names.  IBI is 
84% owned by Limited Inc. (NYSE:LTD).

Why We Like It:
It has been a very interesting month for Intimate Brands.  
Monday, Feb. 4th, 2002, IBI said it expected Q4 earnings to be 58 
to 60 cents a shares versus the then analysts estimates of 49 
cents a share.  Part of the huge guidance higher was due to 
Victoria's Secret "Very Sexy Miracle Bra" which was the company's 
most successful holiday bra launch ever.  According to reports, 
the new bra outsold the seamless satin bra the year before with 
almost double the sales.  As an investor, I would have been 
surprised when the stock failed to respond to the raised guidance 
but then the Dow Jones dropped over 200 points on the 4th of 
February throwing a wet blanket on the positive news.  The next 
day, Feb. 5th, the Limited (LTD) announced an offer to buy back 
the 16% of the company it did not own.  For many on Wall Street 
and Main street, owning one was like owning the other.  They 
traded very closely in tandem.  The Limited had spun off 16 
percent of IBI back in 1995 to increase shareholder growth.  Now 
they want it back.  LTD offered 1.046 shares of LTD for each 
share of IBI.  Before you whip out your calculator let me tell 
that yes, IBI is trading above this buyout offer but not by much.  
Shortly after the news came out more than a dozen lawsuits sprung 
up by IBI shareholders that claimed LTD was not making a fair 
offer.  With shares of Intimate Brands trading above the buyout 
ratio investors are betting with their money that LTD might raise 
their offer.  Unfortunately for shareholders, since the LTD 
already owns so much of the company I'm not sure they will be 
rewarded by their litigation efforts.  

This does not mean that the stock doesn't offer us some short-
term upside.  The recent earnings report on Thursday showed that 
IBI did indeed have a great quarter with profits up 32%.  IBI 
actually came in above their own estimates with 61 cents per 
share or net income of $299.9 million for the quarter.  While 
yearly sales were basically flat and management was somewhat 
cautious in their conference call the trend in the stock has not 
changed.  We readily admit that the stock looks extended but its 
parent company the LTD is not quite as overbought (still 
overbought though).  The idea is that with retail stocks doing 
rather well and LTD about to breakout over $19.00 from a bullish 
wedge, then IBI looks like an easy play since it has already 
cleared psychological resistance at $20.  We have two profit 
targets for IBI.  Short-term we think it can get to $22, 
especially if LTD breaks out over $19.  Longer-term we think IBI 
might be able to trade near $24 but we're going to play with 
relatively tight stops to save us from any violent profit taking.  
We'll begin with a stop at $18.89, which is just below Thursday's 
low.

Picked on March 1st at $20.17 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        02/28/02 (confirmed)




---

USFreightways - USFC - close: 37.84 change: +1.84 stop: 35.95

Company Description:
USFreightways provides comprehensive supply chain management 
services, including high-value next-day, regional and national 
less-than-truckload (LTL) transportation, logistics, domestic and 
international freight forwarding and premium regional and 
national truckload transportation. (source: company press 
release)

Why We Like It:
Its no secret that we’ve been bullish on the transport sector and 
the Dow Transports (TRAN) have been very strong.  The recent move 
over resistance at 2800 certainly didn’t change our minds.  With 
that index approaching 3000, we’re adding another freight company 
to our Play List.  USFC added over 5% during Friday’s session, 
and closed above $37.25.  This level had been resistance since 
last July, and with that obstacle now out of the way we think 
shares are headed to $40 or higher.  The transports have been 
large contributors to the Dow's gains and if this pattern 
continues USFC could trade to the $43-$44 area.  Our trigger for 
bullish entries is $38.26, one cent above the highs for 2001.  
Why are we using a trigger point?  The point-and-figure chart 
shows USFC just created a triple-top breakout.  However, the 
$37.00 to $38.00 level has been resistance so long that it would 
create another triple top buy signal if it trade above $38.00 and 
by waiting until it trades above the old high we have some 
measure of conviction by the bulls.  Personally, it wouldn't hurt 
to look for a pull back to the $37.00 level and then jump in on 
the bounce but the stock has been looking for a breakout for so 
long, that there could be a ton of shorts (who have probably done 
well always shorting near $37.00) that may decide to cover when 
the stock moves over $38.00.  Once we are triggered we'll start 
the play with a stop under Friday's lows at $35.95.

Picked on March Xth at $xx.xx <- see trigger.
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        01/30/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Apache Corp - APA - close: 53.25 change: +0.50 stop: 49.95 

A powerful rally to end the week and start off the month of March 
had bulls cheering on Wall Street.  The broad-based rise was also 
seen in the oil group and the OIX.X index broke through its 200-
dma, a resistance level that had been a lid on the sector for the 
last few sessions, only to have the OIX stop at October's highs 
near 313.  Moving notably higher was the price of oil per barrel 
and the April contracts shot through price resistance at $22.00 
to close at $22.40.  A few analysts suspect that the Russia's 
cooperation or lack there of will once again move oil prices with 
only two weeks before OPEC's next meeting.  Shares of APA rallied 
higher but remains in its recent trading range from $52.00 to 
53.50.  We were surprised that the stock didn't move higher with 
the strength in the OIX and the price of oil.  Traders might want 
to wait for shares to break through resistance at $55 or look for 
its next bounce at $52.00 before considering new long positions.  
Conservative investors looking to protect capital might want to 
consider tighter stops just south of $52 as well.  We are leaving 
ours at $49.95 for the time being.

Picked on February 22nd at $51.57 
Change since picked:        +1.68
Earnings Date            01/31/02 (confirmed)




---

CNF Inc. - CNF - close: 32.40 change: +1.39 stop: 29.99 *new*

The transport sector really took off today and the Dow Transports 
(TRAN) added 3% or 86 points to close at 2897.  The group looks 
like it could trade to the 3000 level pretty easily, especially 
if the rally has any follow through next week.  Shares of CNF 
bounced off the $31 level and quickly traded to $32 before 
finally breaking above its 50-dma.  Bulls can be more optimistic 
now that the stock has moved through the top of its descending 
channel.  Another positive observation can be noted in the MACD, 
which is starting to look more bullish even though it technically 
crossed over three days ago.  A pull back to $32 would not be out 
of the question but the stock looks like it might trade higher 
before pausing to consolidate again.  We're inching our stop up 
to $29.99 but more conservative traders seeking to preserve 
capital might be able to sneak in a stop close to the $31 level.

Picked on February 22nd at $30.41 
Gain since picked:          +1.99
Earnings Date            01/28/02 (confirmed)




---

Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 22.80 change: -0.45 stop: 20.49

If you looked at the DFX.X defense index, it would be natural to 
think the more common defense names would have traded higher on 
Friday.  The index added almost 2% but the larger players in the 
group showed mostly flat to down performances.  This doesn't 
really surprise us.  The broad-based rally across the market 
sectors had investors doing rotating some money from winners in 
the defense sector to other groups that had been trying to rally 
but just couldn't (until today).  We see this weakness in COL as 
temporary and an opportunity for traders to look for a dip to the 
$22 level as the next potential entry point.  Obviously, we'd 
prefer to see COL hold the $23 mark as new support but with the 
limelight currently shining on other sectors then defense issues 
may lag for a few days.  Take your time and be patient and we'll 
see how this new strength in the markets play out.  There is no 
rule that says the defense stocks can't rally with the rest of 
the market but they have been the leaders recently and doesn't 
hurt to see some profit taking.  However, we do note that the 
pattern today looks very much like a bearish engulfing 
candlestick, which is typically a short-term indicator for 
further weakness.  If COL closes under $22 we'll start to get 
concerned.  

Picked on February 15th at $22.50 
Gain since picked:          +0.30
Earnings Date            04/17/02 (unconfirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 57.22 chg: +0.72 stop: 58.03

Just about every sector participated in Friday’s broad-based 
rally, and the XBD.X broker/dealer index followed along with a 
gain of almost 2%.  LEH managed a small gain of its own, but that 
only tells half of the story.  This morning’s trading saw shares 
fall all the way down to $54.67, near the lows for the week.  It 
wasn’t until the Dow Jones really started picking up steam that 
LEH was lifted back over $55.  We like how prior to this rally, 
LEH had been trading slightly lower lows over the course of the 
week and has been unable to crack resistance at $58.  The XBD 
managed to mirror the Dow with a 3.9% move this week, but is 
still down 7.4% YTD.  Both the 200 and 20-dma’s lie just above 
current levels at 476 for the index and we’d expect some 
resistance there for the group.  Traders may want to consider new 
bearish positions if LEH rolls over again near $58, but consider 
the broader market strength first as a rising tide tends to lift 
all boats.

Picked on February 15th at $58.03 
Gain since picked:          +0.81
Earnings Date            12/20/01 (confirmed)






===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Forest Labs - FRX - close: 78.64 change: -0.88 stop: 77.49

FRX’s decline on Friday didn’t violate our stop at $77.49, but 
nonetheless we’re giving this drug stock the boot.  Quite simply, 
we’re disappointed with the way shares failed to rally today.  
With the DRG.X pharmaceutical index gaining nearly 2%, we were 
expecting at least a positive day from FRX.  We searched for news 
that may have been weighing the stock down, but couldn’t find 
any.  If anything the stock should have been trading higher 
Thursday and Friday after the U.S. FDA granted FRX and partner 
Merck KGaA an expedited review to pursue a promising drug 
treatment for alcoholism.  Unfortunately, analysts seem to feel 
that approval would do little to boost FRX's bottom line since 
the American population isn't very active in seeking drug 
treatments for alcoholism (Reuters).  Relative weakness in a 
strong sector on a strong market day isn’t something we like to 
see in our long plays.  An argument can be made for buying on a 
pullback to recent support at $78, but we’re not waiting around 
to see if it bounces.  There just isn’t any evidence to indicate 
that FRX will be breaking out of its sideways trading range 
anytime soon, and we believe our time is better spent on more 
promising plays.

Picked on February 15th at $82.58
Gain since picked:          -3.94
Earnings Date            04/16/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Phelps Dodge - PD - close: 38.21 change: +0.30 stop: 37.43

At first glance, it appears our PD play performed reasonably well 
today.  Unfortunately, a morning gap pushed shares slightly below 
our break-even stop at $37.43 before PD had a chance to rally 
with the broader market.  This gap can be attributed to 
Prudential, who downgraded PD from hold to sell, based on a 
slower recovery for demand than they had anticipated.  We have to 
admit we’re a bit puzzled by their position on both PD and AA, 
who also received a downgrade.  All signs seem to be pointing to 
an economic rebound, which metal stocks should directly benefit 
from.  Does PRU know something we don’t?  Is the "slower recovery 
in demand" an indication that the rebound may not be as strong as 
expected?  Or are they just playing the tried-and-true "downgrade 
and accumulate" game?  In any case, PD has been unable to break 
the $39 level since we initiated this play, and we’d probably 
wait for a close above that level before reconsidering any 
bullish positions.  Due to the gap down to $37.25 we have to 
close the play at that level and not our stop at $37.43.

Picked on February 26th at $37.43
Gain since picked:          -0.18
Earnings Date            01/30/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amazon.com Inc. - AMZN - close: 15.39 change: +1.29 stop: 13.89 *new*

I'm sure it is just a one-day coincidence but Friday's (1-day, 
5-minute interval chart) of AMZN looks extremely close to the 
(1-day, 5-minute interval) chart of the Dow Jones Industrials.  
We were positive on the stock Thursday and had expected the 
online retailer to rebound from the $14 level (from Thursday's 
newsletter, "Overall we're still bullish on the play and the pull 
back to the $14.00 area looks like a good entry point").  As it 
turns out, shares of AMZN really out-performed their retail 
cousins with a 9.1% gain today.  The RLX.X retail index only 
managed a tepid eight point gain to close at 955 but it did close 
back over 950, which is positive.  We did see several brick and 
mortar retailers that looked very appetizing but AMZN outshone 
the majority today.  The close over $15 is very strong indicator 
for the bulls but now the test will be if it can clear $15.77 
(essentially $16), which was the high on January 28th, 2002.  The 
point-and-figure chart still looks very bullish and we've added 
another X with the move above $15.00.  We wondered why AMZN out-
performed the other retailers by so much and considered if some 
of the "Internet" stigma may still be lingering over it.  If so, 
it was a positive influence since shares of YHOO rallied strongly 
on a fresh pre-market upgrade from SoundView on comments about an 
online advertising recovery.  In the news we also noticed that 
Lehman Brothers is going to have an online analyst conference 
call with Amazon.com management via a webcast on Wednesday, March 
6th, 2002 at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.  It may be worth listening to if 
you're a long term investors or we're still in the play by then.  
We didn't receive any more email on the AMZN play so we hope 
Thursday's update answered some of your questions.  Please note 
that we are raising our stop to $13.89, which is a few cents 
under Thursday's low.

Picked on February 26th at $14.40 
Gain since picked:          +0.99
Earnings Date            12/13/01 (confirmed)





===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Adelphia Communications - ADLAC - cls: 23.10 chg: +1.15 stop: 22.55

That's it!  We give up.  We're throwing in the towel, waving the 
white flag, calling it quits.  We've been fighting the trend in 
ADLAC for two weeks.  What first looked like a little oversold 
bounce has now become a full fledged reversal.  Friday's 
performance was the killing blow when ADLAC gained 5.2% with the 
broad-market rally.  Even though we feel the longer-term trend in 
ADLAC is bearish and the $23.25 to $23.50 level "should" still be 
overhead resistance (see mid-February) we can't fight the tape 
anymore.  Fortunately, I feel we have played our bias somewhat 
intelligently by using a trigger point to wait and let ADLAC 
prove itself.  We were never triggered and thus never at risk.  
Considering the news on Thursday about ADLAC and CMCSK we're very 
surprised the stock was even green today.  Another negative news 
story came out today but it was for ADLAC's subsidiary and spin-
off Adlephia Business Solutions Inc. (ABIZ) who said it will not 
make its $15.3 million dollar interest payment due today.  It has 
until March 31st before it is in default for its 12.25% senior 
secured notes due 2004.  We don't know what liabilities ADLAC 
might have, if any, on this development in ABIZ but obviously 
Wall Street didn't see it as an issue today.  We are removing 
ADLAC from the play list.

Picked on February Xth at $xx.xx <-- see trigger 
Change since picked:       +0.00
Earnings Date           03/08/02 (unconfirmed)






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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 03-01-2002
                                                   Section 3 of 3
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of March 4th
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)      
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)      
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================


==================================================
Market Watch for the week of March 4th
==================================================

  ------------------------
  Major Earnings This Week
  ------------------------

Symbol  Company               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

BLDP   Ballard Power Systems  Mon, Mar 4  -----N/A-----     -0.30
ABV    Companhia Bebidas Ame  Mon, Mar 4  -----N/A-----      0.38
HBC    HSBC Holdings plc      Mon, Mar 4  -----N/A-----       N/A
JWa    John Wiley & Sons      Mon, Mar 4  Before the Bell     N/A
PSO    Pearson plc            Mon, Mar 4  -----N/A-----       N/A

------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

BJ     BJ's Wholesale Club    Tue, Mar 5  Before the Bell    0.77
CHS    Chico`s FAS            Tue, Mar 5  Before the Bell    0.20
COST   Costco Wholesale Corp  Tue, Mar 5  -----N/A-----      0.41
CRHCY  CRH plc ADR            Tue, Mar 5  -----N/A-----       N/A
FMS    Fresenius Medical Care Tue, Mar 5  -----N/A-----      0.22
KSS    Kohl`s                 Tue, Mar 5  After the Bell     0.66
SPLS   Staples                Tue, Mar 5  -----N/A-----      0.26
TLS    Telstra                Tue, Mar 5  After the Bell      N/A
UNEWY  United Business Media  Tue, Mar 5  Before the Bell     N/A
V      Vivendi                Tue, Mar 5  -----N/A-----       N/A

-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AEOS   American Egl Outfit    Wed, Mar 6  Before the Bell    0.58
ANN    AnnTaylor Stores       Wed, Mar 6  After the Bell     0.33
ENT    Equant NV              Wed, Mar 6  After the Bell      N/A
GLH    Gallaher Group PLC     Wed, Mar 6  -----N/A-----      1.31
MIK    Michaels Stores        Wed, Mar 6  After the Bell     0.95
PAA    Plains Am Pipeline     Wed, Mar 6  Before the Bell    0.36
RA     Reckson Ass Realty     Wed, Mar 6  After the Bell     0.64

------------------------- THURSDAY -----------------------------

AEG    AEGON N.V.             Thu, Mar 7  -----N/A-----      0.42
DYS    Dist y Serv D&S SA.    Thu, Mar 7  -----N/A-----      0.18
ICCI   Insight Communications Thu, Mar 7  -----N/A-----     -0.41
MDZ    MDS                    Thu, Mar 7  -----N/A-----       N/A
NSM    National Semiconductor Thu, Mar 7  -----N/A-----     -0.27
NXL    New Pln Excl Rlty Trst Thu, Mar 7  Before the Bell    0.43
REXMY  Rexam PLC ADR          Thu, Mar 7  -----N/A-----       N/A
AHO    Royal Ahold N.V.       Thu, Mar 7  -----N/A-----      0.53
SKS    Saks                   Thu, Mar 7  After the Bell     0.50
SCO    Scor ADS               Thu, Mar 7  -----N/A-----       N/A
VDM    Van Der Moolen         Thu, Mar 7  Before the Bell     N/A

------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

KKD    Krispy Kreme Doughnut  Fri, Mar 8  Before the Bell    0.13
LVMHY  LVMH Met-Hen Luis Vttn Fri, Mar 8  -----N/A-----       N/A


  -------------------------------
  Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
  -------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

NJR     New Jersey Resources      3:2      03/01       03/04
RMCF    Rcky Mtn Chocolate Factry 4:3      03/04       03/05
TRR     TRC Companies             3:2      03/05       03/06
GILD    Gilead Sciences           2:1      03/07       03/08
WERN    Werner Enterprises        4:3      03/14       03/15
GNWR    Genesee & Wyoming         3:2      03/14       03/15
WLP     WellPoint Health Network  2:1      03/14       03/15
SMD     Singing Machine           3:2      03/15       03/18


  --------------------------
  Economic Reports This Week
  --------------------------

The week ahead of us still has a number of economic reports but
none as market moving as last week's.  Economists will be interested
in the Factory Orders and the Fed's Beige book on Weds. plus the
Unemployment number and the Avg. workweek and hourly earnings on
Friday.


                       -For-           

Monday, 03/04/02
----------------
Auto Sales               Feb Forecast:   n/a   Previous:    5.3M
Truck Sales              Feb Forecast:   n/a   Previous:    7.1M


Tuesday, 03/05/02
-----------------
ISM Services (DM)        Feb  Forecast:   51.0  Previous:    49.6


Wednesday, 03/06/02
-------------------
Factory Orders(DM)       Jan  Forecast:   1.0%  Previous:    1.7%
Fed’s Beige Book


Thursday, 03/07/02
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)    03/02  Forecast:   380K  Previous:    378K
Productivity-Rev. (BB)    Q4  Forecast:   4.2%  Previous:    3.5%
Consumer Credit (AB)     Jan  Forecast:  $3.2B  Previous:  -$5.1B


Friday, 03/08/02
----------------
Nonfarm Payrolls (BB)    Feb  Forecast:    N/A  Previous:    -89K
Unemployment Rate (BB)   Feb  Forecast:   5.8%  Previous:    5.6%
Average Workweek (BB)    Feb  Forecast:   34.1  Previous:    34.0
Hourly Earnings (BB)     Feb  Forecast:   0.3%  Previous:    0.0%


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell



==================
  Trading Ideas 
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AXA     Axa                        19.02     +0.58
OXY     Occidental Petroleum       27.57     +0.73
BMO     Bank of Montreal           23.15     +0.62
UST     UST Inc                    35.54     +0.68
HP      Helmerich & Payne Inc      35.00     +1.26

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AMKR    Amko Technology Inc        16.65     +2.77
CCI     Crown Castle Intl. Corp     7.90     +1.69
SNDK    Sandisk Corp               17.17     +2.46
CMOS    Credence Systems Corp      17.94     +2.26
GSPT    Global Sports Inc          17.25     +1.30

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

DEO     Diageo                     49.40     +1.11
UNP     Union Pacific Corp         62.75     +2.08
A       Agilent Technologies       32.99     +1.84
NSC     Norfolk Southern Corp      25.19     +1.40
ASML    ASML Holdings              22.65     +2.30

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MCK     McKesson Corp              33.70     -1.55
KG      King Pharmaceuticals       29.30     -1.76
DOX     Amdocs Ltd                 26.25     -2.00
WAT     Waters Corp                29.38     -1.87
IVGN    Invitrogen Corp            34.12     -11.52

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

EVG     Evergreen Resources        41.10     -0.70
RMCI    Right Mgmt Consultants     22.82     -2.22




=================================================================
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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*****************************************************************


Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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