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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 03/05/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 03-05-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Warning on earnings has tech under pressure.
Market Sentiment: Taking a breather.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      03-05-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10433.41 -153.41 10596.09 10425.05 1.53 bln   1586/1544
NASDAQ   1866.30 +  6.98  1886.15  1849.75 2.04 bln   1900/1689
S&P 100   581.95 -  4.57   588.64   581.40   Totals   3486/3233
S&P 500  1146.14 -  7.70  1157.74  1144.78             
RUS 2000  487.59 -  0.41   490.95   486.08
DJ TRANS 2980.60 - 69.36  3050.30  2979.63
VIX        21.81 -  0.27    23.02    21.46
VXN        42.28 +  1.49    42.81    40.76
TRIN        1.33 
PUT/CALL    0.71
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Warning on earnings has tech under pressure

Stocks traded mixed today as the major market averages had 
trouble extending the recent two-day's gains.  Only the broader 
NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) managed to put in an upside performance 
with a 7-point gain at 1,866 (+0.37%), while the Dow Industrials 
(INDU) gave back 153 points to 10,433 (-1.44%), the S&P 500 
(SPX.X) edged down 7 points to 1,146 (-0.66%) and the smaller cap 
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) fell less that one point to 487 
(-0.08%).

Tonight's earning's warning from storage maker McData 
(NASDAQ:MCDT) $15.93 -12% has many hardware-related technology 
stocks under some pressure in after-hours trading and begins to 
paint a rather bleak picture for tomorrow's open.  McData (MCDT) 
said it would have to lower its first-quarter 2002 forecast to a 
loss of 2 to 4-cents a share, which was lower than previous 
guidance given of break-even to 2-cent a share gain.  MCDT also 
lowered guidance on revenues to a range of $73-$78 million from 
previous guidance of $85-$95 million.  McData cited the 
continuing cautious approach to IT storage related infrastructure 
investment in the early months of 2002 as the reason for this 
quarter's revisions.

Sector peers Emulex (NASDAQ:EMLX) $37.27 -1.92% saw its shares 
fall to $34.20 (-8.23%) in after-hours trading, QLogic 
(NASDAQ:QLGC) $47.73 +3.64% fell to $44.70 (-6.3%), Brocade 
(NASDAQ:BRCD) $26.31 -1.6%, declined to $23.85 (-9.3%) and 
Network Appliance (NASDAQ:NTAP) $21.74 +5.94% fell to $20.36 
(-6.3%) after McData's warning.

Back to reality

It can be rather amazing how a nice two-day rally in some 
technology stocks can have "old bulls" coming out of the 
woodwork, but tonight earnings warning from McData (MCDT) seems 
like old news to many.  Even our play list saw some success from 
the bearish side be quickly erased if disciplined stops weren't 
used over a two-day span as bears stepped up their short-
covering.  The risk for bulls in the technology space is what 
happens when some "bad news" hits the group and the short-
covering comes to and end.  It's still our thought, and somewhat 
confirmed by McData, that a true turnaround for many technology 
stock's bottom-lines won't be seen for several months.  

Of the stocks mentioned above, shares of Network Appliance (NTAP) 
look rather bullish, but I'd prefer a pullback to the $17.50 
level for entry.  Tonight's "bad news" from McData (MCDT) now 
becomes the news we test against.  We will want to monitor the 
stock on any pullback, but if volume is lighter on the pullback 
than it was on the advance, then that sets up a rather handsome 
risk/reward trade to the upper band of retracement.

Network Appliance Chart - Daily Interval




The "current market environment" may well be identical to what 
traders found in late October of last year.  The internals for 
the NASDAQ-100 as indicated by the NASDAQ-100 Bullish Percent 
($BPNDX) were turning bullish, yet there was still some negative 
earnings announcements.  At that time, shares of NTAP had made a 
strong move off the bottom, but pulled back from the $18.75 level 
on rather light volume into support at $14.90, then rocketed to 
the upper-end of retracement.  If the economic data we're 
currently seeing is not just a reflection of inventory building, 
then we'll want to keep an eye on NTAP near-term.  We will also 
monitor shares of McData (MCDT) near-term to see how bad the 
selling is over the next couple of sessions.  If that stock can 
firm up near the $10 level and not break to new lows, then that 
would be a plus for NTAP and the storage networking stocks.  

Economic data still strong

While the economic data continues to come in strong, many feel 
that much of the "good news" may have been factored into stocks 
near-term and for further bullishness to prevail, some of the 
employment data needs to start showing signs of recovery.

Today's much stronger than expected ISM non-manufacturing reading 
of 58.7% was a strong showing at the consumer level, but the 
MARKET wanted to sell the strength of that number in the 
retailing stocks as depicted by the S&P Retail Index (RLX.X), 
which closed right on its upward trending 50-day moving average 
at 928 (-3.32%).

Retail Index Chart - Daily Interval




Today's "close at the lows" for the retailers doesn't bode well 
near-term.  While the recent economic data at the manufacturing 
level has been more robust, the more consumer sensitive retail 
sector didn't fair well with today's more "consumer-related" ISM 
non-manufacturing report and market participants seemed rather 
eager to sell into the strength of that report.  I'll be watching 
the still trending higher 50-day moving average tomorrow and any 
break of that could see a decline to the 900 level of 
retracement.

On Thursday and Friday, the MARKET will get some jobs data to 
look at.  Strong numbers and signs of a rebound in employment 
should bode well for the retail sector, and today's selling may 
simply be a squaring of positions and some profit taking ahead of 
those numbers to lock in some gains just in case the jobs data is 
weak.  In recent market commentary, we've mentioned that the 
MARKET may question the stronger-than-expected economic data at 
the industrial level as a knee-jerk inventory re-building 
phenomena.

One of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's concerns was if the consumer 
would continue to spend and drive demand for product.  The 
employment data later this week will give some important insight 
into the potential strength of the consumer.

Last week we profiled a bullish trade in shares of Costco 
Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) when the stock was trading just above its 
longer-term 200-day moving average at $40.75 and since that time 
we were stopped out for a small loss and the stock did violate 
that key moving average on a closing basis today with a close at 
$39.04 -4.75%.  This is bearish in my book.

Shares of Home Depot (NYSE:HD) $47.50 -4.8% are sitting just 
above its still trending higher 200-day MA of $46.92 and should 
this stock violated its 200-day MA, then we'll get more concerned 
on this sector.  Both Goldman Sachs and UBS Warburg downgraded 
building products retailers Home Depot (HD) and Lowes (NYSE:LOW) 
$41.65 -3.81% today, both feeling that there was little that 
either company could do on the earnings front to surprise the 
market on the upside for earnings.

Maybe UBS Warburg likes the "earnings surprises" that McData 
(MCDT) had for investors tonight?

I'll monitor some of the retailing stocks near-term.  It's still 
one of the sectors that has had "more predictable" earnings of 
late.  There may be some downside near-term, but I don't think 
big money is going to just abandon the group and throw money at 
every technology stock looking for a surprise.

Vote "yes" for H-P/Compaq merger

Late today, Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) is telling 
investors to "vote yes" in regards to voting their shares on 
March 19th toward the Hewlett Packard (HWP) and Compaq (CPQ) 
merger scheduled for vote on March 19.  The ISS advises more than 
700 clients on how to vote on corporate-governance issues and 
tonight's decision by the ISS could swing 23% more of the votes 
toward the H-P/Compaq merger.

While tonight's ISS decision has little impact on technology 
stocks, other than those in the personal computer/server space, 
Hewlett Packard (HWP) $20.06 +0.24% is a component of the Dow 
Industrials.  In late-night trading, shares of HWP fell about 3% 
to $20, while shares of Compaq (CPQ) $10.58 -0.65% rose 5% in 
after-hours trading to $11.10.

"We recommend that H-P shareholders vote for the H-P/Compaq 
combination," said the ISS.  "While Mr. Hewlett makes a credible 
case that the risks associated with the transaction are real and 
material, we believe that management's upside scenario is 
achievable."

Hewlett Packard (HWP) management has said that the merger will 
make HWP No. 1 in the personal computer market, the Linux and 
Unix server markets, and the high-end storage market.  It is 
supposed to result in $2.5 billion in cost savings, add 13% to 
per-share earnings by 2003, and raise the value of HWP shares.

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Taking a breather.
by Russ Moore

Not a big surprise on Wall Street today, as investors decided to 
take some profits off the table and give the markets a chance to 
catch their breath.

The blue chips took most of the heat with the DOW dropping -1.4 
percent while the NASDAQ escaped with a fractional gain of +0.4 
percent. The big cap NDX added +0.3 percent.

Volume was solid for the second day in a row with 1.53 billion 
shares trading on the big board and 2.04 billion on the tech 
index. Despite the negative action on the DOW, market breadth was 
actually positive. Winners edged losers by a 16/15 count on the 
big board and 19/17 on the NASDAQ.

Chips and networkers provided the upside support for the NASDAQ 
while utility, brokerage and natural gas sectors were riding high 
on the broad markets.

Today’s economic news added another nail to the bear’s coffin 
with the service sector component of the ISM coming in at a 
surprisingly strong 58.7 reading. In addition, planned job cuts 
fell 40 percent in February to the lowest level since June.

The current bullish optimism will be short lived unless the 
corporate side can deliver the goods on the earnings/guidance 
front. Stock prices are ramping up on speculation, and that’s 
okay, provided we see some hard evidence that business’s are 
actually experiencing growth.

Friday’s closing may turn out to be an important barometer of 
future market action. Market participants hoping the two steps 
forward, one step backward scenario is in play will be 
disappointed if the week ends on a sour note, and may decide this 
was just another head-fake.


VIX
Tuesday 03/05 close: 21.81


VXN
Tuesday 03/05 close: 42.28


10-yr Bonds
Tuesday 03/05 close: 5.01


Total Put/Call Ratio:  .71


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio:  .57


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.56


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 37.42

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/126,839
Maximum puts : 37/133,461

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 35
 20 DMA 35
 50 DMA 37
200 DMA 39

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 43.24 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  34.97 (02/08/02)
38% 38.13
50% 39.11
62% 40.10

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 581.95

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 580/6,651
Maximum puts : 510/6,882

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  565
 20 DMA  561
 50 DMA  573
200 DMA  590

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 600.80 (01/04/02)
Relative Low:  546.13 (01/30/02)
38% 567.00
50% 573.44
62% 579.99

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1146.14

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1100/47,888
Maximum puts : 1100/54,709

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1113
 20 DMA 1106
 50 DMA 1126
200 DMA 1151

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1176.97 (01/07/02)
Relative Low:  1077.78 (02/06/02)
38% 1115.67
50% 1127.37
62% 1139.27

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close: 10,433.41

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/18,283
Maximum Puts    96/41,494

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA 10,162
 20 DMA  9,986
 50 DMA  9,963
200 DMA 10,030

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 10,300.15 (01/07/02)
Relative Low    9,529.46 (01/30/02)
38%  9,823.86
50%  9,914.80
62% 10,007.28

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 487.31

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/953
Maximum Puts:  520/931

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 487
 20 DMA 489
 50 DMA 523
200 DMA 541

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 625.15 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  450.20 (02/07/02)
38% 517.03
50% 537.67
62% 558.66

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 613.90

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 550/1,176
Maximum Puts:  500/1,581

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 545
 20 DMA 545
 50 DMA 545
200 DMA 545

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 606.88 (01/09/02)
Relative Low:  499.09 (01/22/02)
38% 540.26
50% 552.98
62% 565.91

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 384.12

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/550
Maximum Puts:  380/800

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 384
 20 DMA 380
 50 DMA 379
200 DMA 389

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 403.83 (11/26/01)
Relative Low:  365.22 (02/08/02)
38% 379.93
50% 384.51
62% 389.17

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 03/01. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/12/02     355,276   412,868   (57,592)    6.6%
02/19/02     355,905   772,569   (60,759)    5.5%
02/26/02     366,258   432,258   (66,000)    9.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/12/02       126,730    59,902    66,828     4.7%
02/19/02       130,856    63,311    67,545     1.1%
02/26/02       139,183    62,087    77,096    14.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/12/02      32,712    34,841    (2,129)    (30.1%)
02/19/02      33,871    35,690    (1,819)    (14.6%)
02/26/02      33,589    34,091      (502)    (72.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/12/02        9,009     7,415    1,594    (29.0%)
02/19/02        9,966     8,073    1,893     18.8%
02/26/02        9,517    11,416   (1,899)  

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/12/02      26,811    16,488   10,323      5.3%
02/19/02      29,606    17,953   11,653     12.9%
02/26/02      33,322    21,110   12,212      4.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/12/02       4,562    10,038    (5,476)     15.0%
02/19/02       4,654    10,431    (5,777)      5.5%
02/26/02       6,333    12,547    (6,214)      7.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +77,096     +67,545        -66,000    -60,759

Total Open
Interest %       (+38.30%)  (+34.79%)      (-8.26%)   (-7.86%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -6,214     -5,777          +12,212   +11,653
Total Open
interest %       (-32.91%)    (-38.29)      (+22.43%)  (+24.50)
                 net-short   net-short       net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         -1,899      +1,893       -502    -1,819

Total Open
Interest %        (-9.07%)   (+10.49%)     (-.74%) (-2.61%)
                 net-short   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Commercials and Small Specs were moving in opposite 
directions this week as the big players added to their net-short 
positions while the Small Specs increased their long exposure. 

With bullish economic data becoming more prevalent, it’ll be 
interesting to follow Commercial activity over the coming weeks. 
If we don’t see some commitment from these players I would be 
extremely suspect of a sustained rally taking place.

Gold:.. 

02/05 58,180 contracts net-short
02/12 62,223 contracts net-short
02/19 60,054 contracts net-short
02/26 56,409 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 02/26 by the CFTC.



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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 03-05-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/c05b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates: BBH

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates: APA, CNF, COL, DOL, USFC
  Closed Bullish Play:  IBI, ZLC

High Risk / High Reward
  Bullish Play Updates: CTX
  Closed Bullish Plays: AMZN

Split Trader
  - none -

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Biotech HOLDRs - BBH - close: 120.22 chg: -2.23 stop: 114.00

While many tech sectors saw enormous rallies on Monday, the 
biotechs were somewhat tepid.  The BTK.X biotech index did show a 
decent gain but was unable to crack stubborn resistance at 500.  
Today, the largest components of the BBH all saw the same orderly 
selling that was the theme for the day across the broader market: 
some of the leaders in the group AMGN -1.56%, BGEN -1.20%, DNA 
-0.60%, and IDPH -2.70%.  The BBH continues to have trouble with 
resistance near $123, a level that has frustrated bulls for 
almost two months.  With the 200-dma also overhead at 124.65 
traders may instead want to target dips to the $118 or $115 level 
when considering new positions.  The last two or three weeks have 
allowed nimble investors the chance to play the trading range on 
the BBH without much variance.  Until these holders move through 
the top or bottom of the range there is no reason to do 
otherwise.

Picked on February 20th at $120.00
Gain since picked:           +0.22
Earnings Date                  N/A





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Apache Corp - APA - close: 53.88 change: -0.12 stop: 49.95

The oil group followed the broader market higher on Monday, 
pushing the OIX.X oil index above resistance at 313.  The price 
of oil also continued higher in anticipation of the OPEC meeting 
next week and closed at $23.35/barrel, just above the 200-dma.  
APA mirrored the Dow Jones by trading to new near-term highs on 
Monday, and then fell back slightly today on decreased volume.  
With the $55 resistance level looming overhead and the market 
digesting a huge move, traders may want to target dips to $52 
before initiating new long positions.  If oil stocks continue to 
be strong and APA resumes its journey higher some traders may 
want to wait for a close above $55 to confirm a break over 
resistance.  FYI, we noticed that intraday today the $54 level 
was tough resistance for APA but volume was not that significant 
overall.  If we don't get a dip to $52, consider a dip to its 10-
dma at $52.50 as a potential entry point.

Picked on February 22nd at $51.57
Gain since picked:          +2.31
Earnings Date            01/31/02 (confirmed)




---

CNF Inc. - CNF - close: 33.12 change: -0.43 stop: 31.94

The Dow Transports (TRAN) had a stellar run over the past two 
weeks and were definitely overdue for a breather.  Yesterday’s 
close over 3000 was a positive development, but the temptation 
for profit-taking was just too much and the index lost 2.27% or 
almost 70 points to close at 2980.  CNF actually outperformed the 
TRAN, and only shed 1.28%.  This relative strength bodes well for 
our play, and if bullishness returns to the group tomorrow we’d 
be looking for shares to move over recent highs at $33.95.  If 
the selling continues, investors could take a low-risk position 
if CNF bounces from the 50-dma at $32.21, which is just above our 
stop at $31.94.  Short-term traders may actually want to consider 
taking profits since our original profit targets were resistance 
at $34 and then a move to $36.  Premier is currently up 8.9% in 
CNF.

Picked on February 22nd at $30.41
Gain since picked:          +2.71
Earnings Date            01/28/02 (confirmed)




---

Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 23.06 change: -0.47 stop: 20.49

Defense stocks took a break today to consolidate some of their 
recent gains.  HON, LMT, and GD all suffered some profit-taking, 
and COL traded in a similar fashion as it lost 2% on very light 
volume of 284K versus the 525K average.  The lack of bearish 
conviction is encouraging, but we're going to need to see some 
serious sector strength to move COL above its all-time high of 
$23.88.  We think the more likely scenario would be for shares to 
pull back some more before attempting to crack that level, and 
would look for a dip to $22.50 to offer a possible entry.

Picked on February 15th at $22.50
Gain since picked:          +0.56
Earnings Date            04/17/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Dole Food CO. - DOL - close: 30.55 change: -0.65 stop: 28.49

In Friday’s write-up for this play we discussed the likelihood of 
DOL pulling back to consolidate some of that day’s 5% gains.  
That’s exactly what happened today, as shares dropped from 
Monday’s highs of $31.46 until finding support near $30.50.  We 
think this small move down is a positive development for our 
play, especially considering that it took place on very light 
volume of 175K versus the average of 298K.  Now that we’ve gotten 
the pullback we were looking for, entries can be evaluated if DOL 
bounces from $30.00-$30.50.  However, be sure to keep an eye on 
the broader market to confirm bullish sentiment before opening 
new positions.  We would probably turn cautious if DOL actually 
traded under the $30 level again.

Picked on March 1st at $30.94
Gain since picked:      -0.39
Earnings Date        01/31/02 (confirmed)




---

USFreightways - USFC - close: 38.35 change: -0.60 stop: 36.49

As mentioned above, transportation-related issues saw some 
selling today and USFC was no exception.  Shares fell from recent 
highs of $39.20 and closed exactly at Monday's low of $38.35.  
We're encouraged by both its relative strength versus the Down 
Transports (TRAN) and the way it seems to have found near-term 
support at current levels.  As was the case last week, new 
economic data that indicates an economic upturn could power the 
transports higher.  The schedule for economic reports this week 
is relatively light, but the Jobless Claims release on Thursday 
and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday are potential market-moving 
numbers.  Renewed bullishness in the sector could push USFC above 
$39.20, making way for a move to $40.  On the other hand, if the 
selling continues from current levels, we'd consider new 
positions if USFC bounces from former resistance at $37.  Please 
note that our stop was moved up last night, due to the fact that 
our play was triggered at a higher level than we had anticipated.  
Traders should not be surprised if USFC trades down to the $37.85 
level to fill the gap created on Monday's open.  A bounce there 
would not be a bad entry either, of course a dip to $37 would 
allow for a smaller amount of capital at risk with our stop at 
$36.49.

Picked on March 4th at $39.01
Gain since picked:      -0.66
Earnings Date        01/30/02 (confirmed)






===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Intimate Brands - IBI - close: 19.10 change: -0.85 stop: 18.89

We were looking for IBI to continue its move over resistance at 
$20, but the market had other plans.  The first signs of trouble 
appeared yesterday, when the retail index (RLX.X) only managed a 
small half-percent gain on a day when the Dow rallied 217 points.  
IBI closed under $20, which apparently scared the bulls away.  
Shares were weak from the get-go this morning, and sold off until 
finding support just under our stop of $18.89.  We were also 
looking for a move higher in parent company LTD, which has been 
trading in tandem with IBI.  Shares of that retailer saw a 
similar selloff from its own resistance at $19 but settled near 
its 30-dma for a 4.87% loss.  The major catalyst in the retail 
sector today was a number of downgrades by Credit Suisse First 
Boston.  CSFB claims that higher valuations and slowing earnings 
growth may make retailers a group to avoid at these levels.  Some 
of the stocks mentioned were ANF, BBBY, FDO, JCP and ZLC, which 
leads us to our next closed play.

Picked on March 1st at $20.17 
Gain since picked:      -1.28
Earnings Date        02/28/02 (confirmed)




---

Zale Cp - ZLC - close: 42.21 change: -2.78 stop: 42.89

Well, this one didn’t turn out like we hoped.  Although it 
appeared that yesterday’s close just under $45 was a precursor to 
a move over that level, shares gapped down slightly this morning 
and sold off sharply until finally bouncing near $42.  This high-
volume move violated our stop at $42.89, but fortunately our 
trigger at $45.05 wasn’t hit and we never entered the play.  The 
purpose of this trigger was to confirm bullish conviction and 
avoid a sell-off such as the one that occurred this morning.  ZLC 
has almost doubled since September, and some profit-taking at 
this point certainly isn’t surprising.  The cause of the profit 
taking for Zales was a downgrade from CSFB prior to the open.  
CSFB's retail analyst hit several stocks with a downgrade, many 
were moved from buy to hold but Zales was demoted from a "strong 
buy" to a "buy".  The analyst actually had positive things to say 
about the company but cited valuation concerns for the rating 
adjustment.  A Reuters article made an interesting observation: 
ZLC is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 12.8 compared with a P/E 
of 8.0 in November of 2000.  They also noted that ZLC trades at a 
46% discount to the S&P 500 currently up from a 66% discount back 
in Nov. 2000.  Near-term we’d look for $42 to continue to offer 
support, but with the RLX.X retail index looking weak after 
dropping 3.3% today, a move back to $40 isn’t out of the 
question.  Take note that the RLX has fallen to its 50-dma, which 
has been support recently and a breakdown below it would be 
pretty negative.  

Picked on March xth at $xx.xx <- See text
Gain since picked:          N/A
Earnings Date            May /02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Centex Corp - CTX - close: 59.90 change: -1.42 stop: 57.39
 
We were hoping to see CTX continue to rise after breaking through 
resistance at $60, but shares fell back below that level after 
traders decided to take some money off the table today.  
Considering that CTX has risen sharply in the past week, some 
profit taking is to be expected.  Its homebuilding counterparts 
traded in a similar fashion:  BZH, DHI, PHM, and TOL all saw some 
selling today.  We're not too thrilled with the close below $60, 
but with this level already broken once, shares shouldn't have a 
difficult time bouncing back.  Traders targeting new bullish 
positions may want to wait for CTX to close back above the $60 
level.  However, we wouldn't be surprised to see another day of 
selling in the group.  If this turns out to be the case a bounce 
from Friday's high of $59 could provide a favorable entry point.  
If the stock really pulls back then shares could dip to the $58 
level, which should be decent support.

Picked on March 4th at $61.32
Gain since picked:      -1.42
Earnings Date        01/23/02 (confirmed)






===============
HR Closed Plays
===============

  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 15.97 change: -0.51 stop: 15.84 

AMZN has performed quite nicely since we picked it last week but 
alas, all good things must come to an end.  Nimble traders may 
have been able to exit on strength this morning when the stock 
bounced from $15.90 to almost $16.70, but shares quickly topped 
out at $16.68 and sold off again until bouncing just under our 
stop, which we raised last night in order to protect recent 
gains.  This took us out of our play at $15.84 for a 10% move. 
The Internet index (IIX.X) added about 15% during the last two 
sessions, which helped fueled the move in AMZN.  At this point, 
it appears some consolidation may be in order before the Internet 
index and the Nasdaq can continue heading higher.  We would not 
be surprised to see AMZN consolidate near the $14.75 to $15.00 
levels but bulls should be cautious while the broader market 
pulls back a bit.  Of course the BIG news for AMZN came after the 
bell when news hit Wall Street that CFO Warren Jenson would be 
leaving the .com firm.  AMZN immediately began to trade lower in 
after hours while investors and analysts scurried to find out if 
there were any underlying reasons for his departure they needed 
to know about.  Jenson didn't offer much reason for his 
resignation, which will take place later this year.  He did say 
that he was brought on board to bring AMZN to profitability and 
now that this has been accomplished it's time he moved on.

Picked on February 26th at $14.40
Gain since picked:          +1.44
Earnings Date            12/13/01 (unconfirmed)






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

WMB     Williams Companies Inc     19.10     +2.49
DYN     Dynegy Inc                 29.40     +0.67
MTG     M G I C Investments        69.56     +0.53
CVC     Cablevision Systems        37.74     +0.99
PMI     The PMI Group Inc          73.37     +0.76

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

ISLE    Isle of Capris Casinos     19.40     +1.50
NTBK    Net.B@nk Inc               15.97     +1.14
RBMG    Resource Bancshares        18.00     +1.20
SYXI    IXYS Corp                  11.45     +1.15
ORB     Orbital Sciences Corp       8.08     +1.29
SWTX    Southwall Technologies     10.50     +2.38

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

FOX     Fox Entertainment Group    24.71     +1.55
LLTC    Linear Technology Corp     46.15     +1.70
AFL     Aflac Inc                  28.17     +1.62
SDS     Sungard Data Systems       34.65     +1.35

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TGT     Target Corp                41.50     -1.90
COST    Costco Wholesale           39.04     -1.95
MCK     McKesson Corp              30.81     -1.38
ODSY    Odyssey Healthcare Inc     26.64     -2.16

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

WMT     Wal-Mart Corp              60.76     -2.22
SCHS    School Specialty Inc       26.98     -0.82
SAFM    Sanderson Farms Inc        22.00     -2.31




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