Option Investor
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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 03/06/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 03-06-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Are bears getting e-"motional?"
Watch List:       BRCM, VRTS, ATK, MMM, RYL, ED, PSS, SNE
Market Sentiment: Do I, or don’t I?.
Play of the Day:  Bullish Triangle Breakout.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      03-06-2002          High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10574.29 +140.88 10601.51 10425.80 1.53 bln   2297/ 867
NASDAQ   1890.39 + 24.10  1891.83  1841.31 1.88 bln   2270/1279
S&P 100   590.21 +  8.26   591.73   581.90   Totals   4567/2146
S&P 500  1162.77 + 16.63  1165.29  1145.11             
RUS 2000  494.80 +  7.21   494.80   485.21
DJ TRANS 3014.53 + 33.93  3019.63  2980.21
VIX        22.06 +  0.25    22.21    21.43 
VXN        42.90 +  0.62    44.32    42.54
TRIN        0.61 
Put/Call    0.50
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Are bears getting e-"motional?"

Stocks traded higher today as the bulk of sectors we monitor on a 
daily basis oozed green.  Only the CBOE Semiconductor Index 
(SOX.X) finished in the red at 607.97 -0.96, but even here we saw 
a rally into the close after an earlier-session 3.5% deficit.  
Are bears starting to get emotional and perhaps getting a little 
nervous?

I can't answer for every bear, but we've taken our shots at some 
bearish trades in the past week and have had very mixed results 
in our play list.  Aside from our bearish play in shares of PMC-
Sierra (NASDAQ:PMCS) $19.08 +1.92% that was dropped from our play 
list at $16.05 with a nice gain on March 1st, our last 4 bearish 
trades have seen 3-losses (MSFT, MXIM, ALTR) and 1 break even.  
Add to that a couple of stocks we had profiled with bearish 
triggers where the stocks never hit those downside triggers and 
you get the distinct feeling the market has a bit of a "buy side" 
bias.

One stock in the technology space that looks like bears might be 
getting ready to show some "e-motion" and perhaps capitulate are 
shares of Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) $27.32 +4.95%.  Today 
the stock has done something it hasn't been able to do since 
August 2, 2001, and that "something is close above the $27 level.  
While $27 is a rather obscure number, today's trade at $27 was 
enough to give the point and figure chart the "bullish triangle" 
pattern and also get the stock above a level where we might now 
see market makers in the stock start getting more of a "buy side" 
bias.

Research In Motion Chart - Daily Interval





Gulp!  Wireless?  Telecom?  What the heck is going on?  It's 
strong stocks in weak sectors where you can find some surprises.  
I wouldn't advise a squeamish bull to be loading the boat on 
shares of Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM), but this stock has 
found its supporters despite a pummeling that has been delivered 
to many stocks that are "wireless-related."  Aggressive 
technology bulls can look to trade RIMM as this one looks to be a 
favorite in the wireless group.  The large volume spike on 
January 24th ($21.03 to $24.63) came on news that the company had 
signed an agreement with Motorola (NYSE:MOT) $14.82 +0.13% to 
produce the Nextel (NASDAQ:NXTL) $6.26 +14.23% handheld with 
voice and data capabilities.  (see tonight play write-up).

Research In Motion Chart - $0.50 and $1 box




Shares of RIMM broke their longer-term bearish resistance trend 
back in December (red C) and have been trading sideways in the 
past several months.  That's been plenty of time for some bears 
to be shorting the stock with broader weakness in many wireless 
technology stocks.  It's interesting to note however, that shares 
of RIMM have NOT given a "sell signal" (O column going below a 
previous O column) since giving an early "buy signal" (X column 
above a previous X column) in October of last year (after red A).  
The bullish vertical count remains $30.50 and a trade at $28 
tomorrow would well have bears capitulating in their positions.  
I've also "highlighted" a second column of X from $16.50 to $26 
that hints of some institutions "topping of their tanks" on an 
extended move higher.

More economic numbers ahead

There were few negative surprises in today's economic data.  This 
morning's factory orders number came pretty much inline with 
expectations with a 1.6% rise, while shipments rose 2% and 
inventories fell -0.60%.  In Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's latest 
testimony before Congress, he said he felt that some of the 
economic data showed that sales were outpacing remaining 
inventory and today's numbers sure seem to have backed up his 
observations.  The report showed that the inventory-to-sales 
ratio dropped to 1.33 from 1.37 in December, suggesting that 
inventories have been pared close to the bone.  The inventory-to-
sales ratio is the lowest since July 2000, which was the 
beginning of the slowdown in the factor sector.

As Mr. Greenspan noted, this type of pull on inventories will 
most likely have manufacturers gearing up some production to 
replenish these drawn down inventories and help boost some of the 
economic data in the first-half of this year, but once the 
inventories are restocked, a sustainable recovery depends on 
increased demand from consumers and business.

Also released late this afternoon at 02:00 PM EST was the Beige 
Book report and it too hinted that economic recovery was indeed 
in the making.  The Beige Book is simply a report that is issued 
by the Federal Reserve Board that is an accumulation of 
information obtained by the various district banks and business 
contacts from New York to San Francisco whereby business activity 
can be monitored.  The Beige Book is not a statement by the 
Federal Reserve, but simply a report that discusses its findings 
and observations.

I won't go into great detail, but today's MARKET response was 
that of "no terribly negative news" and not necessarily a 
response to any "overly bullish" economic observations.  If you'd 
like to read the Summary of this report, you can view it at 
http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/2002/20020306/default.htm

I read the report and it really talks about various dynamics that 
seem to be taking place various sectors and geographic locations 
around the country.  One of the pronounced negatives in the 
report was the theme of "weakness" in the commercial real estate 
market as business just weren't looking to expand or upgrade 
their office space.  Improvements were noted from business 
contacts at temporary employment firms in several districts that 
suggested a "bottoming out" and new hires in selected occupations 
were said to be in short supply.  This "employment" observation 
at the temporary hire level could play into tomorrow morning's 
jobs data and provided a bit of a boost for stocks into the close 
of today's trading.

Tomorrow, before the opening of trading at 08:30 AM EST, we will 
get some more economic data.  On the employment front, economists 
will be looking for jobless claims to come in at around the 
380,000 level.  A "strong" number much below the 375,000 level 
could give a more bullish tint toward the economy at the jobs 
level.  The previous week's reading was 378,000.

Before the U.S. markets open for trading we'll also get a look at 
the revised productivity numbers for the fourth-quarter.  The 
preliminary report showed a 3.5% gain and economists are looking 
for a revision higher near the 4.4% level.  I'm not expecting too 
much of an impact on the market here, but current thought is that 
a higher productivity number may have the Fed at ease on near-
term interest rate hikes.  Productivity is a "key component" for 
Mr. Greenspan's inflation equation and a higher reading may have 
him less concerned about inflation and perhaps willing to leave 
rates where they are.  For equity bulls, they'll take all they 
can get at this point.

Also due out is consumer credit, which economists look for a 
number close to $3.2 billion.  This number may not necessarily 
impact the broader market averages, as much as it may have an 
impact on how the financials trade.  In recent session, many of 
the banking stocks have shown good upside gains and that has 
helped the S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,162 +1.45% show a strong 
performance.  Dow Components American Express (NYSE:AXP) $39.92 
+2.22%, Citigroup (NYSE:C) $48.70 +2.09% and J.P. Morgan Chase 
(NYSE:JPM) $34.05 +4.73% all traded strong today.

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) - Weekly Interval




The weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) shows a couple of 
bullish technical achievements by the bulls.  The true test 
remains the 1,175 to 1,180 level, which served as resistance in 
December and January.  For a couple of weeks the SPX made several 
rally attempts at that level, but buyers never had the conviction 
or help from any economic data that we've started to see in 
recent weeks.

I don't feel a move above the 1,175 level is going to be a piece 
of cake, but tomorrow's employment data could weigh in the 
balance.  I don't expect a break of 1,175-1,180 will bring an 
immediate surge to the 1,300 level either, but progress by the 
bulls looks to be in the making.

The Dow Transportation Average (TRAN) 3,014 +1.13% was able to 
battle back and recoup some of yesterday's losses and I think 
broader-market bulls want to see this group continue to trade 
strong.  If I have one concern for this group, it's that the 
bullish percent for the transports from Dorsey/Wright and 
Associates (a much broader sampling of transportation stocks that 
Stockcharts.com transportation bullish percent) is currently 
reading 72% bullish.  Levels above 70% are considered 
"overbought" and I do not want to be "chasing" stocks in the 
group that are overextended.  However, I will note that this 
sector did achieve a lofty 90% bullish reading in August of 1997, 
and I won't be surprised if we were to see those types of levels 
again this early in an economic recovery phase.

Currency watch!

This morning's commentary regarding Merrill Lynch's bullish call 
on Japan got my interest.  Sony Corporation (NYSE:SNE) $53.40 
+6.16% did indeed trade the $51 level as the stock opened "hot" 
at $51.77 and traded strong into the close.  Sony (SNY) is an 
American Depository Receipt "ADR" and these ADRs have a habit of 
gapping up and down as their shares are heavily traded in the 
markets where the corporation is based.  However, Merill's call 
did have me snooping around and different things to try and see 
where they might be "coming from."

One place I "snooped" was in the currency markets.  I noticed 
today was that the U.S. dollar was notably weak versus the major 
foreign currencies.  Currently, I do not view this as a negative, 
but perhaps may help explain, or add some credence to the 
bullishness we've seen in the Dow Industrials of late.  You know, 
those multinational company's that derive a great deal of their 
sales from overseas markets?

Late last year, you couldn't read an earnings report from one of 
these behemoths where they didn't mention "the strength in the 
U.S. $ continues to make our products less competitive on price 
in foreign markets and have sales under pressure."

The U.S.$ was weak against the Japanese Yen and this may actually 
bode well for many multinationals based here in the U.S.  Japan 
is the worlds second largest economy and a strengthening in that 
currency would help a multinational based here in the U.S. with 
exports to that country.

The broader weakness in the U.S.$ can also be a positive for the 
multinationals that export to other parts of the world, notably 
Europe.  What this currency action can actually do is help drive 
some top line growth for the US-based multinationals, as it can 
help make their products more attractive if a foreign currency 
gains some purchasing power.

As always, the rate of change, is what is important to monitor 
going forward.  A gradual decline in the US$ would be preferred, 
not a sharp decline in US$ strength.  

This observation of "weakness" in the US$ is preliminary, but may 
also provide a near-term catalyst that other MARKET participants 
are observing and perhaps building into some of their fundamental 
models for "predicting" growth rates.

The "strength" in the Japanese Yen versus the US$ may also be 
some "firming" in belief by other market participants that Japan 
is indeed poised for an economic recovery of its own.  Perhaps 
money that began fleeing the Japanese economy and currency years 
ago, may now be making its way back to Japan on thoughts of 
economic recovery.

I'm not going to put this as a "front and center" type of 
observation, but we will monitor this from time to time.  We may 
also want to be on further alert for this to perhaps provide 
further catalyst for multinationals based here in the U.S.

Hey!  Did you see that Dow component General Electric (NYSE:GE) 
$41.55 +2.59% closed above its 200-day moving average today?  
That's bullish!  And I'd consider General Electric (GE) to be a 
HUGE multinational.

Jeff Bailey
Premier Investor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Broadcom Corp - BRCM - close: 40.04 change: -0.46  

WHAT TO WATCH: Talk about a V-bottom!  BRCM finally found support 
at $30 after declining steadily for nearly two months.  The 
recent rally in the semiconductor index (SOX.X) ignited a monster 
bounce from this level, and shares added about 30% in three days.  
Needless to say, we're not looking to chase this one higher.  As 
a matter of fact, we noticed how BRCM stopped dead in its tracks 
at the 100-dma over the past two sessions.  With the 50-dma also 
looming directly overhead, a short position could be considered 
if shares rollover from current levels.  We're definitely 
anticipating some possible profit-taking after the huge Friday-
Tuesday move.  On the other hand, if shares do sell off a bullish 
entry could be evaluated on dips to previous resistance at $35-
$35.50.




--- 

VERITAS Software - VRTS - close: 42.58 change: +0.72

WHAT TO WATCH:  Shares of this software stock also exploded over 
the past week, which may have some questioning if it's 
overextended.  We won't argue that VRTS may be due for some 
consolidation after the recent move, but today's trading has us 
thinking that shares may continue to rise in the near-term.  We 
like how this morning's dip to $40 was used as an entry point for 
eager bulls.  The way shares pulled back and bounced strongly to 
recent highs suggests that there is still a strong buy-side bias 
on this stock.  Additionally, VRTS closed above its 100 and 200 
dma's.  It's not that pretty but today's candlestick looks like a 
bullish engulfing pattern, which is another positive indicator.  
It is tempting to look for bullish entries at current levels.  
However, if VRTS pulls back once again, long entries could be 
considered on dips to $40.




--- 

Alliant Tech Systems - ATK - close: 100.49 change: +5.59

WHAT TO WATCH: Like most defense-related issues, ATK has been 
moving higher over the past month.  We like how it recently moved 
above October highs at $93, briefly consolidated, and headed 
higher.  Today's 5.9% move powered shares to an all-time high of 
101.00 on very high volume of 800K versus the average of 295K.  
The break of the $100 psychological resistance level could have 
remaining shorts running scared, but what we'd like to see is a 
pullback and bounce from $95-$96.  If sector sentiment (as 
measured by the DFX.X defense index) remains strong, ATK may 
continue to head higher without much consolidation.




--- 

Minnesota Mining - MMM - close: 121.57 change: +1.42

WHAT TO WATCH:  MMM has risen over 20% since putting in a near-
term bottom in January.  The way shares have behaved at $120 is 
encouraging.  After breaking this resistance level on Friday, MMM 
spent the next three days consolidating its gains above $120.  If 
the broader market remains strong, we'd be looking for a move 
over congestion between $123-$125 to clear the way for a test of 
the 52-week high at $127.00. 




--- 

Ryland Group Inc. - RYL - close: 96.65 change: +4.35

WHAT TO WATCH: The recent positive economic data has fueled a 
dramatic rise in shares of many home-building companies.  Such is 
the case with RYL, which has shot up almost 20% since breaking 
the $82 resistance level in late February.  Today's high-volume 
move of 4.71% could portend a test of psychological resistance at 
$100.  Super-aggressive traders could try to catch this move, but 
we'd rather wait for a dip to the $90-$91 level to target new 
long positions.




--- 

Cons Edison Inc - ED - close: 42.50 change: +0.52

WHAT TO WATCH: We like the relative strength ED has displayed 
versus other energy companies in recent sessions.  Volume has 
been rising steadily over the past four sessions of gains and 
shares are within striking distance of the 52-week high at 
$43.37.  A break over $43 would also complete a double-top 
breakout on the p-n-f chart.  However, after four straight up-
days, a dip back to $41.50 or $42 could be in the cards.  We'd be 
looking for a bounce from those levels to consider possible 
bullish positions.  Be aware that ED is not a vast mover with 
recent sessions as the exception.




--- 

Payless Shoes - PSS - close: 60.90 change: +1.40

WHAT TO WATCH: PSS outperformed the RLX.X retail index today, 
adding 2.35% versus the RLX's 1.12%.  More importantly, shares 
closed well over previous resistance at $60.  PSS could continue 
to move higher if the market reaction to tomorrows jobs report is 
positive.  We like the strength in today's move and would 
consider long plays with a tight stop (consider Tuesday's low as 
a potential stop placement).  Alternatively, a successful retest 
of the $60 level would be a good time to evaluate a long 
position.  The strong performance lately could be explain by 
Goldman Sachs, who reiterated PSS's market perform rating on 
Monday.




---

Sony Corp - SNE - close: 53.40 change: +3.10 

WHAT TO WATCH: This is a last minute addition to the watch list 
to it will be brief.  Shares have consolidated sideways for 
months in a trading range between $40 and $50.  The recent market 
bullishness both here and in Japan has pushed shares of SNE over 
the $50 level and above its 200-dma, which occurred today.  
Volume has been very strong the last few sessions which normally 
indicators conviction.  The point-and-figure chart is showing a 
double-top breakout.  We're not recommending you chase it but a 
pull back to the $50 or $51 level may be an attractive entry 
point to consider bullish plays.  






================
Market Sentiment
================

Do I, or don’t I?
by Russ Moore

A question that’s on many an investor’s mind these days. No one 
wants to miss the beginning of the next bull market. On the other 
hand, didn’t we see a similar rally begin last March?

It seems for now at least, investors are willing to give it 
another shot as the DOW notched one more in the win column with a 
gain of +1.4 percent. The NASDAQ made it four positive sessions 
in a row, adding +1.3 percent. The NDX was up +1.4 percent.

Volume was a little softer but still decent with 1.52 billion 
shares trading on the NYSE and 1.90 billion on the NASDAQ. 
Winners outpaced losers by a margin of 23/9 on the big board and 
23/13 on the tech side.

Sector action was generally positive with star performances 
turned in by the airline, biotech, gold, natural gas and telecom 
sectors. Chips and hardware gave back a little.

The current rally has been based on surprisingly strong economic 
data and an absence of accounting headlines. The real test of 
this rally will be its ability to handle adversity. That test 
could come this Friday if the employment number comes in above 
expectations.


VIX
Wednesday 03/06 close: 22.06


VXN
Wednesday 03/06 close: 42.73


10-yr Bonds
Wednesday 03/06 close: 5.03


Total Put/Call Ratio:  .65


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio:  .50


Index Option Put/Call Ratio: 1.92


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 37.60

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/126,242
Maximum puts : 37/145,820

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 35
 20 DMA 35
 50 DMA 37
200 DMA 39

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 43.24 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  34.97 (02/08/02)
38% 38.13
50% 39.11
62% 40.10

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 590.21

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 580/6,751
Maximum puts : 510/6,849

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  568
 20 DMA  563
 50 DMA  573
200 DMA  590

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 600.80 (01/04/02)
Relative Low:  546.13 (01/30/02)
38% 567.00
50% 573.44
62% 579.99

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1162.76

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1100/47,595
Maximum puts : 1100/56,127

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1120
 20 DMA 1110
 50 DMA 1127
200 DMA 1151

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1176.97 (01/07/02)
Relative Low:  1077.78 (02/06/02)
38% 1115.67
50% 1127.37
62% 1139.27

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close: 10,574.29

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/18,272
Maximum Puts    96/41,459

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA 10,226
 20 DMA 10,030
 50 DMA  9,974
200 DMA 10,028

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 10,300.15 (01/07/02)
Relative Low    9,529.46 (01/30/02)
38%  9,823.86
50%  9,914.80
62% 10,007.28

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 513.69

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/953
Maximum Puts:  520/931

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 489
 20 DMA 491
 50 DMA 522
200 DMA 541

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 625.15 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  450.20 (02/07/02)
38% 517.03
50% 537.67
62% 558.66

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 607.97

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 550/1,123
Maximum Puts:  500/1,581

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 551
 20 DMA 548
 50 DMA 547
200 DMA 545

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 606.88 (01/09/02)
Relative Low:  499.09 (01/22/02)
38% 540.26
50% 552.98
62% 565.91

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 388.18

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/550
Maximum Puts:  380/800

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 385
 20 DMA 380
 50 DMA 379
200 DMA 389

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 403.83 (11/26/01)
Relative Low:  365.22 (02/08/02)
38% 379.93
50% 384.51
62% 389.17

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 03/01. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/12/02     355,276   412,868   (57,592)    6.6%
02/19/02     355,905   772,569   (60,759)    5.5%
02/26/02     366,258   432,258   (66,000)    9.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/12/02       126,730    59,902    66,828     4.7%
02/19/02       130,856    63,311    67,545     1.1%
02/26/02       139,183    62,087    77,096    14.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  91,122 - 3/06/01

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/12/02      32,712    34,841    (2,129)    (30.1%)
02/19/02      33,871    35,690    (1,819)    (14.6%)
02/26/02      33,589    34,091      (502)    (72.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/12/02        9,009     7,415    1,594    (29.0%)
02/19/02        9,966     8,073    1,893     18.8%
02/26/02        9,517    11,416   (1,899)  

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/12/02      26,811    16,488   10,323      5.3%
02/19/02      29,606    17,953   11,653     12.9%
02/26/02      33,322    21,110   12,212      4.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/12/02       4,562    10,038    (5,476)     15.0%
02/19/02       4,654    10,431    (5,777)      5.5%
02/26/02       6,333    12,547    (6,214)      7.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +77,096     +67,545        -66,000    -60,759

Total Open
Interest %       (+38.30%)  (+34.79%)      (-8.26%)   (-7.86%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -6,214     -5,777          +12,212   +11,653
Total Open
interest %       (-32.91%)    (-38.29)      (+22.43%)  (+24.50)
                 net-short   net-short       net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         -1,899      +1,893       -502    -1,819

Total Open
Interest %        (-9.07%)   (+10.49%)     (-.74%) (-2.61%)
                 net-short   net-long      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Commercials and Small Specs were moving in opposite 
directions this week as the big players added to their net-short 
positions while the Small Specs increased their long exposure. 

With bullish economic data becoming more prevalent, it’ll be 
interesting to follow Commercial activity over the coming weeks. 
If we don’t see some commitment from these players I would be 
extremely suspect of a sustained rally taking place.

Gold:.. 

02/05 58,180 contracts net-short
02/12 62,223 contracts net-short
02/19 60,054 contracts net-short
02/26 56,409 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 02/26 by the CFTC.



===============
Play-of-the-Day  (bullish)
===============
(( new tech stock play ))


Research In Motion - RIMM - close: 27.32 change: +1.29 stop: 25.60

Company Description:
Research In Motion Limited is a leading designer, manufacturer 
and marketer of innovative wireless solutions for the mobile 
communications market. Through development and integration of 
hardware, software and services, RIM provides solutions for 
seamless access to time-sensitive information including email, 
messaging, Internet and intranet-based applications. RIM 
technology also enables a broad array of third party developers 
and manufacturers in North America and around the world to 
enhance their products and services with wireless connectivity. 
RIM's portfolio of award-winning products includes the Rim 
Wireless Handheld product line, the Blackberry wireless email 
solution, embedded radio modems, and software development tools. 
(source: company website)

Why We Like It:
If you read the Market Wrap tonight, you already know that we're 
feeling bullish on RIMM.  The recent move up may be attributed 
not only to recent tech strength, but also Monday's launch of 
their voice-enabled Blackberry e-mail device.  What really caught 
our attention was the way shares managed to close over resistance 
at $27 today.  That level had thwarted the stock on two previous 
rally attempts this year, and today marks the first time since 
August that it was able to actually close above $27.  Although 
buying breakouts can be risky business, we feel that RIMM is a 
good candidate for such a strategy.  In addition to the close 
over resistance, the p-n-f chart is showing a bullish triangle 
breakout and the electronics sector is at 40% bullish confirmed.  
The stubborn resistance at $27 also coincides with a key 
retracement level.  We suspect shorts using this level to manage 
risk may begin to cover now that shares closed above it.  Traders 
can consider entries at current levels, while more conservative 
players may want to wait for either a successful retest of the 
$27 or $26 level or a close over the $27.50 or $28.00 marks as 
confirmation.  Our initial profit target is $32, although we 
wouldn't be surprised to see some consolidation at psychological 
resistance at $30, which coincides with the next retracement 
level.  We're starting this play with stop just below today's low 
at $25.60.  Note that shares of Research In Motion also trade on 
the Toronto exchange (TSM: RIM).  

Picked on March 6th at $27.32 
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        04/09/02 (unconfirmed)





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of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 03-06-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/c06b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

NetBulls Tech Stocks
  New Bullish Play:   RIMM

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls Tech Stocks (NB) section
=================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Research In Motion - RIMM - close: 27.32 change: +1.29 stop: 25.60

Company Description:
Research In Motion Limited is a leading designer, manufacturer 
and marketer of innovative wireless solutions for the mobile 
communications market. Through development and integration of 
hardware, software and services, RIM provides solutions for 
seamless access to time-sensitive information including email, 
messaging, Internet and intranet-based applications. RIM 
technology also enables a broad array of third party developers 
and manufacturers in North America and around the world to 
enhance their products and services with wireless connectivity. 
RIM's portfolio of award-winning products includes the Rim 
Wireless Handheld product line, the Blackberry wireless email 
solution, embedded radio modems, and software development tools. 
(source: company website)

Why We Like It:
If you read the Market Wrap tonight, you already know that we're 
feeling bullish on RIMM.  The recent move up may be attributed 
not only to recent tech strength, but also Monday's launch of 
their voice-enabled Blackberry e-mail device.  What really caught 
our attention was the way shares managed to close over resistance 
at $27 today.  That level had thwarted the stock on two previous 
rally attempts this year, and today marks the first time since 
August that it was able to actually close above $27.  Although 
buying breakouts can be risky business, we feel that RIMM is a 
good candidate for such a strategy.  In addition to the close 
over resistance, the p-n-f chart is showing a bullish triangle 
breakout and the electronics sector is at 40% bullish confirmed.  
The stubborn resistance at $27 also coincides with a key 
retracement level.  We suspect shorts using this level to manage 
risk may begin to cover now that shares closed above it.  Traders 
can consider entries at current levels, while more conservative 
players may want to wait for either a successful retest of the 
$27 or $26 level or a close over the $27.50 or $28.00 marks as 
confirmation.  Our initial profit target is $32, although we 
wouldn't be surprised to see some consolidation at psychological 
resistance at $30, which coincides with the next retracement 
level.  We're starting this play with stop just below today's low 
at $25.60.  Note that shares of Research In Motion also trade on 
the Toronto exchange (TSM: RIM).  

Picked on March 6th at $27.32 
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        04/09/02 (unconfirmed)






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

WMB     Williams Companies Inc     20.28     +1.18
ED      Consolidated Edison Inc    42.50     +0.52
TLM     Talisman Energy Inc        41.20     +0.94
ELN     Elan Corp                  15.41     +0.62
UCU     Utilicorp United Inc       23.98     +0.58

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PCS     Sprint Corp PCS            11.47     +1.92
CC      Circuit City Stores Inc    19.94     +1.19
MIR     Mirant Corp                12.00     +1.09
CPN     Calpine Corp               10.87     +1.72
GNTA    Genta Inc                  15.62     +1.53

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BMY     Bristol-Myers Squibb Co    50.22     +1.79
SNE     Sony Corp                  53.40     +3.10
D       Dominion Resources Inc     61.97     +1.76
CVS     CVS Corp                   31.13     +1.23
BGEN    Biogen Inc                 57.07     +2.30

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

GDT     Guidant Corp               40.50     -1.25
HRH     Hilb Rogal & Hamilton      33.96     -1.32
ODSY    Odyssey Healthcare Inc     25.01     -1.63

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BRO     Brown & Brown              32.25     -2.38
MBG     Mandalay Resort Group      30.00     -1.50




=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




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