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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 03/13/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 03-13-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Retail sales were the news, but tech lead declines
Watch List:       SYMC, NVDA, IGT, HGSI, WAG and much more!
Market Sentiment: Retail surprise sours sentiment.
Play of the Day:  Bearish tech revisited.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      03-13-2002          High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10501.85 -130.50 10620.17 10474.17 1.35 bln   1398/1767
NASDAQ   1862.03 - 35.09  1886.27  1858.45 1.65 bln   1503/2013
S&P 100   589.84 -  1.25   591.09   582.75   Totals   2901/3780
S&P 500  1164.31 -  1.27  1165.58  1151.01             
RUS 2000  495.45 -  3.45   498.90   494.40
DJ TRANS 2949.84 - 44.97  2995.93  2948.67
VIX        21.97 +  0.66    22.58    21.55 
VXN        43.26 +  0.25    44.17    42.55
TRIN        1.55 
Put/Call    0.67
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Retail sales were the news, but tech lead declines

This morning's lower than expected and disappointing retail sales 
number were a good excuse to sell as some bears came out of the 
woods saying "I told you so."  While one day doesn't prove a bull 
or bear right, one has to wonder why the S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 
fell just 0.11% if retail sales were the "cause" for today's 
decline.

Nowhere in the retail sales numbers did I see "Lucent (NYSE:LU) 
reported that telecom service providers continue to delay 
increases in capital expenditure budgets and the store at 5th and 
Main reported that retail sales rose just 0.3%."  Shares of 
Lucent traded to a fresh 52-week and all-time low today to close 
at $4.92 (-12.95) and today's retails sales numbers were simply 
an excuse to sell.  Some Lucent bulls might feel fortunate for 
sales to have risen 0.3% in the latest month.

Last night, we placed shares of retail department store Kohls 
(NYSE:KSS) $68.94 -0.36% in our bullish play list with a trigger 
to go long on a trades above $70.50 (yellow flags in play list 
have trading triggers).  Again, one day doesn't make a market or 
determine a longer-term economic forecast, but this is a 
retailing stock that held up rather well if one thinks today's 
retail sales report should have bearish economic forecasters 
beating their chest.  It wasn't just Kohls (KSS) either.  The S&P 
Retail Index (RLX.X) traded strong RELATIVE to the MARKET and 
gives hint that the basket of major retailers weren't being 
flushed from portfolios on the thought that the economy was going 
down the drain.

The Networking Index (NWX.X) 249 -4.7%, Fiber Optic Index (FOP.X) 
94.5 -4.4% and Wireless Telecom Index (YLS.X) 73 -3.2% saw the 
bulk of the session's selling.  Not a surprise considering how 
far they are from the money pot as it relates to further economic 
recovery.

In recent weeks we talked about portfolio managers perhaps doing 
some "window dressing" where they add to the good stuff and dump 
the stocks that could raise question as to where they fit into 
making money for the faithful investors.  The meaningful "window 
dressing" that took place today were some mannequins being 
stripped of stocks that went out of fashion 

I would once again look short shares of Celestica (NYSE:CLS) 
$37.98 -2.26%.  This stock treated our play list very well on the 
decline from $39.05 to $34.05 as profiled from February 5 to 
February 25.  The stock is about $1.07 below our last bearish 
entry and with Lucent (LU) trading a fresh 52-week low, I still 
wonder just how robust business is going to be at Celestica (CLS) 
anytime soon.

Celestica Chart - Daily Interval




A bear will keep going back to the same food source as long as 
his/her most recent meal tasted good.  Shares of CLS have rallied 
back near our first profiled short entry (marked on chart as 
short) and subscribers got a tasty profit (marked as covered) a 
couple of weeks later.  A smart bear isn't complacent.  I've 
added a new upward trend on the chart.  While that trend looks 
longer that the downward trend, reality is that this new upward 
trend is just 13 sessions old if we are counting the days since 
the trend was attached to the relative lows.  If the stock falls 
sharply to that trend (about $33.50) a bearish trader short above 
$37 might lock in his/her quick 9% gain, constantly measuring 
against broader market and sector action (see tonight's play 
write up).

Tonight, subscribers will be treated to some thoughts/
observations from our newest member of the PremierInvestor.net 
network and Chief Market Strategist Leigh Stevens.  Leigh worked 
for Cantor Fitzgerald with an office on the 105th floor of the 
WTC when the terrorist attacks of September 11th occurred.  
Fortunately, Leigh was out on leave finishing his new book 
"Essential Technical Analysis" when the attacks took place.  May 
we never forget that terrible day.  

Jeff Bailey

Senior Technical Analyst
Premier Investor


Here are some thoughts from Leigh Stevens, who has just joined 
us this week:  

A Waiting Game

The S&P 500 (SPX) has behaved in a predictable 
fashion in terms of the unfolding of what I see as a 
gradually unfolding bull market trend. This trend 
should see back and forth price swings.  The market 
is in a corrective phase now overall.  Corrections 
often have a down-up-down sequence after the first up 
“leg” which was the Sept to early-Jan advance. I 
believe we are seeing another pullback underway here. 
I would be waiting to buy this pullback, on balance, 
rather than shorting heavily or doing a lot with 
puts. I just think the easier money will be made this 
way. 

By the time SPX got back up into the 1170-1175 zone, 
the market was overbought and vulnerable to profit 
taking.  This price action formed a triple top, which 
is at the red level line in the chart below.  
Moreover, the rally started from the low end of the 
typical range that the S&P trades in; in terms of its 
percentage below (or above) it’s 21-day moving 
average.  

The S&P currently and typically trades in a range 
that takes prices about 4-4.5 percent above or below 
the 21-day average, as per the chart below.  Now, the 
index can keep going up and “hug” that line as it did 
in the fall.  The pullbacks were TO the 21-day moving 
average only, which is at the middle (red) line in 
the chart below.  (The blue lines float 4.4% above 
and below the moving average.) 

Once the moving average was penetrated to the 
downside, the next likely target was to the lower 
envelope line.  The subsequent double bottom, coupled 
with a rising RSI and Stochastic, along with extreme 
bearish sentiment (lots of put buying - 1 equities 
put bought for every equities call on 2/15), was the 
buy “signal”, basis the S&P.  

The other moving averages to watch, per the SPX chart 
below, are the 200-day (heavy magenta line at 1148), 
and the 50-day moving average at the gray line, 
coming in at 1128.  I believe that the 200-day moving 
average will be penetrated to the downside, and this 
will turn market “sentiment” back to more bearish.  
Institutional money managers are not overly technical 
in their approach but they do watch the 200-day 
moving average.  

It is more likely that we could see a pullback taking 
the SPX back to the 1125-1130 area, where it should 
bounce at or from just below the two moving averages 
that come in in this area.  However, two consecutive 
closes under this 1125-1130 zone, would suggest that 
the index could head back to the 1100 area again.  
This seems the least likely scenario right now.  

SPX Daily chart 




At any rate, one does not have to necessarily believe 
in the bull case and buy the dips, but simply wait 
for the market to prove itself, so to speak, and 
break out above the aforementioned 1170-1175 area.  
It is VERY likely that the 4th move above this area, 
will suggest that the next up “leg” (another 
intermediate rally, say to the 1240-1250 area) is under 
way.  The next up leg will likely be a very strong move.  
At that time, profit taking and rotation out of the 
current blue chip cyclical stocks should be apparent.  
And, significant money should then move into the tech 
stocks. 

In terms of other levels to watch, look at the 38%, 
50% and 62% retracement levels of the last rally.  
First is 1135, then 1123, and finally 1112, per the 
hourly SPX chart below.   


SPX hourly chart




That should do it for tonight.  I look forward to working 
with Jeff and the rest of Premier Investor Network team.

Leigh Stevens

Chief Market Strategist
OptionInvestor.com



==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Symantec - SYMC - close: 42.24 change: +0.51

WHAT TO WATCH:  The GSO.X software index has faltered over the 
last two sessions.  MSFT has led the decline after topping out at 
$65, but that's understandable considering it had a nice run from 
$55.  SYMC grabbed our attention because of its refusal to join 
its software brethren in the recent sell-off.  The stock has 
firmly broken the $40 resistance levels and pegged another 52-
week high today.  If the GSO.X reverses course and heads higher 
we'd look for SYMC to lead the way.  From a p-n-f perspective, a 
trade over $43 would be a double-top buy signal, with the bullish 
vertical count at $63.  A more conservative entry might be 
waiting for shares to test support at $40 but the recent trend is 
showing bulls building on its higher lows, which points to 
support at $41.




---

NVIDIA Corp - NVDA - close: 53.60 change: -0.99

WHAT TO WATCH: Like most semi stocks, NVDA bounced sharply higher 
recently.  However, NVDA has already sold off many of those 
gains.  After trading up to resistance at the $60 level, shares 
broke back below the 100-dma.  This rally failed at the bearish 
resistance line on the P-n-F chart, which gives a near-term 
target of $50.  The fast line on the MACD is also heading lower 
and a bearish crossover could be imminent.  Ultra-aggressive 
traders could try to short the stock at current levels if the 
SOX.X continues to be weak, but we'd prefer to wait for two 
alternative entries: a rebound to $56-57 or a breakdown under $50 
and its 200-dma (more likely) to target new short positions.  
Don't forget that NVDA is still under the SEC shadow cast a few 
weeks ago.




---

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 61.67 change: -1.21

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this gaming company are threatening to 
break below support.  A recent rally was stopped abruptly at $70 
and IGT quickly reversed course.  Volume has been steadily rising 
over the past three days of selling.  Today's 1.9% decline 
dropped shares below the 100-dma at $61.67.  The last time the 
100-dma level failed (last July) turned out to be a precursor to 
some rapid losses.  Support at $60 has held since the stock moved 
above that level in November, which makes for a fairly straight-
forward approach to targeting new bearish positions.  A volume-
backed move below $60 could open the door to a move down to the 
next support level at $55.  Those of you who use p-n-f charts may 
be interested to know that a break under $60 would also create a 
double-bottom sell signal.  Note that the 200-dma is at $58.50, 
which could offer some additional support for the bulls.  




--- 

Human Genome Sciences - HGSI - close: 24.05 change: -0.06

WHAT TO WATCH: We profiled this stock on Monday's Watch List 
because of the relative strength it was displaying versus the 
biotech sector.  Does the market know something we don't know?  
There hasn't been any news to explain it, but HGSI continued to 
be strong on Tuesday.  Shares jumped higher after breaking over 
the 20-dma, which had held down the stock on two other previous 
rally attempts.  The biotech index (BTK.X) gained 1.14% today, 
helping HGSI to a high of $25.19.  Yet Profit taking set in at 
this level and pushed shares back to the $24 level.  If the stock 
continues to outperform a move back over $25 could offer a 
bullish entry.




--- 

Walgreen Co - WAG - close: 39.70 change: -0.24

WHAT TO WATCH: Today's retail sales numbers didn't come in as 
strong as hoped, but the RLX.X retail index took the news in 
stride.  After the strong move higher last week the weak numbers 
could've been a perfect excuse for some profit taking.  Given the 
lack of selling today (the RLX.X was down only 0.11%), we think 
the index could break over recent highs near 960.  WAG has been 
consolidating under $40 for most of this month and could break 
over that level if the retail sector continues to be strong.  A 
close over $40.24 could be a good time to consider a bullish 
entry.  More conservative traders may want to wait for a close 
over near-term highs of $40.70.  There is still potential 
resistance between $41 and $42 from last summer and bulls may 
want to keep an eye on it.  More aggressive traders could look 
for positions here with a tight stop under $39 or $38.50.
 




=============
MORE TO WATCH
=============

PSS  - Looks to be consolidating recent breakout over the $60
       level.  Aggressive traders could go long with a stop
       under $60 (or somewhere close).  The rest of us may want
       to look for the beginnings of its next leg higher.

BRCM - We would look for potential short plays if BRCM closes
       under $40 and/or its 200-dma near $38.50.

AMAT - Bailey has been following this one for awhile.  We will
       continue to look for more of a pull back near $45 - $46
       as a potential bullish entry point.

QCOM - Telecom is still in the toilet so a move under $40 may
       be a good place to short QCOM.

CHKP - Software has not been that strong lately and CHKP's 
       failed rally at its 200-dma doesn't look good.  We 
       strongly consider this a short play tonight and a move
       under $33.80 (10-dma) will probably convince us to commit.

HDWR - This metal stock broke out strongly today on very strong
       volume.  We've not checked the news yet but a pull back 
       to $13.50 might be an entry.

BLUD - Another breakout during today's market slide.  Volume was
       strong and we'd look for a pull back near $12.00.

DGX  - We strongly considered DGX as a play tonight but we 
       suspect that the $80 level might be resistance and thus a
       pull back to $75 - $76 may be our bullish entry.

TSS  - This was another strong high-volume breakout and traders
       may want to keep it on their watch list.

OSI  - Renewed concerns about foot-and-mouth disease or was it
       hoof and mouth disease could have steak restaurants seeing
       red.  OSI looks like a potential short on the grill.

SNE  - We continue to look for that pull back to the $50 level 
       and it's getting closer.

EMLX - This stock has been on the watch list recently and it is
       quickly approaching our trigger point to short it with a
       move under $30.



================
Market Sentiment
================

Retail surprise sours sentiment.
by Russ Moore

Economic news has been pleasing to the pallet over the last 
couple of weeks but today, investors were forced to swallow a 
bitter pill when the retail sales data came up short of 
expectations.

The negative tone was compounded by several downbeat analysts’ 
comments on the tech sector. When it was all said and done the 
DOW had shed -1.2 percent while the NASDAQ dropped -1.8 percent 
and the NDX -2.1 percent.

The bulls can take some solace in the fact that today’s volume 
was on the light side with 1.34 billion shares changing hands on 
the NYSE and only 1.66 billion moving on the tech index. Losers 
smashed winners by a margin of 20/12 on the big board and 20/15 
on the NASDAQ.

Investors sought refuge in the biotech and drug sectors while 
shedding shares in airlines and gold. Tech action was red across 
the board with networking, telecom and chip sectors suffering the 
largest declines.

The NASDAQ’s failure to hold above its’ 50 and 200DMA’s has to be 
discouraging for the tech bulls. This index will need to climb 
over these hurdles to attract serious buying interest. The DOW 
has managed to maintain most of its’ recent gains and is holding 
a course just above its’ major moving averages while trading in a 
narrow range. Holding these levels will be critical to any 
further upside on the markets as a whole. 

Tomorrow’s initial jobless claims along with Friday’s consumer 
sentiment and industrial production data will be looked upon to 
restore investor confidence and stabilize the markets.


VIX
Wednesday 03/13 close: 21.97


VXN
Wednesday 03/13 close: 43.26


10-yr Bonds
Wednesday 03/13 close: 5.26


Total Put/Call Ratio:  .90


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio:  .73


Index Option Put/Call Ratio:  1.56


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 37.08

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/132,714
Maximum puts : 37/131,725

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 37
 20 DMA 36
 50 DMA 37
200 DMA 38

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 43.24 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  34.97 (02/08/02)
38% 38.13
50% 39.11
62% 40.10

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 584.70

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 600/6,961
Maximum puts : 560/7,350

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  584
 20 DMA  571
 50 DMA  573
200 DMA  588

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 600.80 (01/04/02)
Relative Low:  546.13 (01/30/02)
38% 567.00
50% 573.44
62% 579.99

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1154.09

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1100/46,971
Maximum puts : 1100/55,607

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1151
 20 DMA 1126
 50 DMA 1128
200 DMA 1148

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1176.97 (01/07/02)
Relative Low:  1077.78 (02/06/02)
38% 1115.67
50% 1127.37
62% 1139.27

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close: 10,501.85

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/17,978
Maximum Puts    96/41,141

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA 10,491
 20 DMA 10,234
 50 DMA 10,023
 200 DMA 10,013

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 10,300.15 (01/07/02)
Relative Low    9,529.46 (01/30/02)
38%  9,823.86
50%  9,914.80
62% 10,007.28

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 517.75

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/992
Maximum Puts:  520/924

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 500
 20 DMA 497
 50 DMA 514
200 DMA 539

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 625.15 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  450.20 (02/07/02)
38% 517.03
50% 537.67
62% 558.66

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 581.55

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 630/  535
Maximum Puts:  500/1,584

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 595
 20 DMA 567
 50 DMA 556
200 DMA 544

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 606.88 (01/09/02)
Relative Low:  499.09 (01/22/02)
38% 540.26
50% 552.98
62% 565.91

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 389.36

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/550
Maximum Puts:  380/800

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 387
 20 DMA 384
 50 DMA 379
200 DMA 388

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 403.83 (11/26/01)
Relative Low:  365.22 (02/08/02)
38% 379.93
50% 384.51
62% 389.17

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 03/08. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/19/02     355,905   772,569   (60,759)    5.5%
02/26/02     366,258   432,258   (66,000)    9.0%
03/05/02     361,254   445,989   (84,735)   28.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/19/02       130,856    63,311    67,545     1.1%
02/26/02       139,183    62,087    77,096    14.1%
03/05/02       161,711    60,941   100,770    30.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 100,770 - 3/05/02

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/19/02      33,871    35,690    (1,819)    (14.6%)
02/26/02      33,589    34,091      (502)    (72.0%)
03/05/02      37,549    35,419    (1,870)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/19/02        9,966     8,073    1,893     18.8%
02/26/02        9,517    11,416   (1,899)  
03/05/02       11,961    11,214      747

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/19/02      29,606    17,953   11,653     12.9%
02/26/02      33,322    21,110   12,212      4.8%
03/05/02      37,036    25,554   11,482     (6.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/19/02       4,654    10,431    (5,777)      5.5%
02/26/02       6,333    12,547    (6,214)      7.5%
03/05/02       6,589    13,057    (6,468)      4.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +100,770     +77,096        -84,735    -66,000

Total Open
Interest %       (+45.26%)  (+38.30%)      (-10.50%)   (-8.26%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -6,468     -6,214        +11,482   +12,212
Total Open
interest %       (-32.92%)    (-32.91)      (+17.59%)  (+22.43)
                 net-short   net-short       net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +747      +1,899       -1,870     -502

Total Open
Interest %        (+3.22%)   (-9.07%)     (-2.71%) (-.74%)
                 net-long   net-short      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Last week I mentioned that a lack of commitment from the 
Commercial players i.e. a move in to accumulation mode, would 
make any rally suspect. Well folks, we got the move all right, 
but it’s not in the direction many people would expect. This week 
we have the Commercials adding substantially to their net-short 
positions. More importantly, the Small Specs were also adding 
large positions however; they were in long contracts. 

Remember we are looking for increased divergence between the 
big/small players. This week’s move should have anyone that is 
currently long the markets looking over their shoulder.

Gold:.It’s taken awhile, but maybe we’re finally starting to see 
why the Commercial players have maintained their short positions. 
The gold index (XAU) is starting to give back a little after 
enjoying a very nice run over the last couple of months. 

02/12 62,223 contracts net-short
02/19 60,054 contracts net-short
02/26 56,409 contracts net-short
03/05 58,666 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 03/05 by the CFTC.



===============
Play-of-the-Day  (bearish)
===============
(( new tech stock play ))


Celestica - CLS - close: $37.98 change: -0.88 stop: 41.25

Company Description:
Celestica is a world leader in electronics manufacturing services 
(EMS) for industry leading original equipment manufacturers 
(OEMs). With facilities in North America, Europe, Asia and Latin 
America, Celestica provides a broad range of services including 
design, prototyping, assembly, testing, product assurance, supply 
chain management, worldwide distribution and after-sales service. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
As outlined by Jeff Bailey in tonight's Market Wrap, Premier 
Investor successfully shorted CLS earlier this year.  The stock 
has seen a sharp rally a week ago and we think now is the time to 
pull the trigger on the short side again.  Fundamentally, CLS 
also doesn't have much going for it.  The company is a large 
supplier for fallen tech angels CSCO, NT, LU just to name a few.  
With the latter two trading in the single-digits due to their 
current business outlook, it's hard to imagine they're going to 
be giving CLS any large orders in the near future.  Shares 
rallied to bearish resistance on the p-n-f chart (near $41) and 
rolled over from there.  The oscillators paint a bearish picture 
as well: the MACD is curling at the baseline, and the daily 
stochastics are headed down after giving a sell signal on Monday.  
Given enough time we're looking for CLS to trade down to $29, but 
the bulls will likely defend the $31.50 level, site of recent 
lows.  As far as targeting entry points, we'd look for a failed 
rally at $39 or more weakness in the morning to consider new 
short positions.  Keep in mind that if the NASDAQ heads back to 
1800 over the next couple of days then CLS could continue lower 
unabated.  We're initiating this play with a stop at $41.25

Picked on March 13th at $37.98
Change since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (unconfirmed)
 






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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright © 2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 03-13-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright © 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/c13b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

NetBulls Tech Stocks
  New Bearish Play:     BRCD, CLS

StockBottom Non-Tech Stocks
  Closed Bullish Play:  USFC

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Play:     HIG

Split Trader
                        DKWD: 2-for-1 split announcement
                        ONFC: 3-for-2 split announcement


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls Tech Stocks (NB) section
=================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Brocade Comm. - BRCD - close: 27.84 change: -0.54 stop: see text

Company Description:
Brocade offers the industry's leading intelligent platform for 
networking storage. The world's leading systems, applications, 
and storage vendors have selected Brocade to provide a networking 
foundation for their SAN solutions. The Brocade SilkWorm® family 
of fabric switches and software is designed to optimize data 
availability and storage and server resources in the enterprise. 
Using Brocade solutions, companies can simplify the 
implementation of storage area networks, reduce the total cost of 
ownership of data storage environments, and improve network and 
application efficiency. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The specter of lower IT spending continues to raise its ugly head 
and recently it has been spooking investors in the storage-
networks industry.  The leader in the group, EMC, has recently 
had its earnings guidance lowered by a broker and MCDTA was 
hammered when it had to alter its Q1 forecast of breakeven to 2 
cents a share down to a new forecast of a 2 cent to 4 cent loss 
per share.  These two bearish developments are more than enough 
to weigh on shares of BRCD but MCDTA has now levied a patent 
infringement lawsuit against BRCD for its Frame Filtering switch.  
Of course BRCD claims the lawsuit is without merit and plans to 
defend itself.  Whatever the outcome, shares of BRCD have failed 
to rally through resistance at the $30 level and now appear to be 
slipping lower.  We are going to use a trigger point strategy to 
open the play, which will help make the decision process easier.  
If BRCD trades at or below $26.90 we are going to open our 
hypothetical short position.  We'll start the play with a stop 
loss at $30.05 and then readjust it as the stock moves lower.  
Our initial target exit will be $22 but we'll adjust it as 
needed.

Picked on March 13th at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Celestica - CLS - close: $37.98 change: -0.88 stop: 41.25

Company Description:
Celestica is a world leader in electronics manufacturing services 
(EMS) for industry leading original equipment manufacturers 
(OEMs). With facilities in North America, Europe, Asia and Latin 
America, Celestica provides a broad range of services including 
design, prototyping, assembly, testing, product assurance, supply 
chain management, worldwide distribution and after-sales service. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
As outlined by Jeff Bailey in tonight's Market Wrap, Premier 
Investor successfully shorted CLS earlier this year.  The stock 
has seen a sharp rally a week ago and we think now is the time to 
pull the trigger on the short side again.  Fundamentally, CLS 
also doesn't have much going for it.  The company is a large 
supplier for fallen tech angels CSCO, NT, LU just to name a few.  
With the latter two trading in the single-digits due to their 
current business outlook, it's hard to imagine they're going to 
be giving CLS any large orders in the near future.  Shares 
rallied to bearish resistance on the p-n-f chart (near $41) and 
rolled over from there.  The oscillators paint a bearish picture 
as well: the MACD is curling at the baseline, and the daily 
stochastics are headed down after giving a sell signal on Monday.  
Given enough time we're looking for CLS to trade down to $29, but 
the bulls will likely defend the $31.50 level, site of recent 
lows.  As far as targeting entry points, we'd look for a failed 
rally at $39 or more weakness in the morning to consider new 
short positions.  Keep in mind that if the NASDAQ heads back to 
1800 over the next couple of days then CLS could continue lower 
unabated.  We're initiating this play with a stop at $41.25

Picked on March 13th at $37.98
Change since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (unconfirmed)
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

   ----------------
   Closed Bullish
   ----------------


USFreightways - USFC - close: 36.63 change: -2.17 stop: 36.49

USFC had been performing well, but we began to get worried when 
shares abandoned the $38 support level this morning.  With the 
TRAN rolling over from 3000 and dropping 1.50% today some selling 
in our trucking play could be expected.  What was surprising was 
the severity of USFC's decline.  Shares dropped 5.6% and in the 
process stopped us out at $36.49, for a loss of $2.52.  One might 
expect the move could be attributed to some bad news, but that 
wasn't the case.  In fact, USFC actually received a reiterated 
buy from J.P. Morgan this morning.  Given the sharp decline and 
coming MACD bearish crossover that is developing, we wouldn't 
look to go long again until the stock firms up above $36.

Picked on March 4th at $39.01
Gain since picked:      -2.52
Earnings Date        01/30/02 (confirmed)





==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

============
HR New Plays
============

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Hartford Financial Svc - HIG - cls: 65.74 chg: +0.32 stop: 64.45

Company Description:
The Hartford is one of the nation's largest insurance and 
financial services companies, with 2001 revenues of $15.1 
billion. As of Dec. 31, 2001, The Hartford had assets of $181.2 
billion and shareholders' equity of $9.0 billion. The company is 
a leading provider of investment products; life insurance and 
group benefits; automobile and homeowners products; commercial 
property and casualty insurance; and reinsurance. (source: 
company press release)

Why We Like It:
Financial stocks may not have been the hottest sector this week 
but we feel the recent weakness may have given us a very 
attractive entry point on some short-term long plays.  HIG, a 
massive insurance company, has been in a strong upward trend from 
last November.  In the last couple of months the stock has traded 
through its pre-9/11 lows and re-conquered its 200-dma.  Now that 
the group has seen some selling in the last several sessions the 
stock is resting near the bottom edge of its ascending channel.  
HIG's relative strength today in the face of a triple digit loss 
in the Dow Jones is encouraging.  The recent pull back in HIG 
corresponds with the trend we see on the point-and-figure chart 
where shares will retrace three or four rows (O's) before bulls 
push it higher again.  Currently the bullish price objective for 
HIG is near $82.  We're only aiming for a quick short-term move 
to $70.  If our short-term objective is achieved we'll re-
evaluate.  Traders should note that the last two sessions have 
seen buyers support the stock at its 50-dma near $64.50.  We're 
going to initiate a stop just under this level at $64.45, which 
should limit our exposure to only 1.9-%.  Some traders may want 
to wait and see HIG trade back over $66 before committing any 
capital.

Picked on March 13th at $65.74
Change since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date         01/28/02 (confirmed)
 






==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

D&K Healthcare announces 2-For-1 Split

During the market on Wednesday, D&K Healthcare Resources (NASDAQ: 
DKWD) announced that a 2-for-1 split had been approved by the 
company's Board of Directors.  The payable date for the split will 
be April 11, 2002 to shareholders of record on March 29, 2002.

This split will be the company's first since it began trading in 
1992.  Shares had quite a run over the past year, and have nearly 
tripled from last March's levels.  

The stock closed at $58.20 on Tuesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=DKWD


About the company
D&K Healthcare Resources, Inc., is a wholesale distributor of 
pharmaceutical and related healthcare and beauty aid products to 
independent and regional pharmacies, national pharmacy chains and 
other healthcare providers. (source: company press release)


--------


Oneida Financial declares 3-For-2 Split

During the market on Wednesday, Oneida Financial Corp (NASDAQ: 
ONFC) released word from their President and CEO, Michael Kallet, 
that the company would offer a 3-For-2 stock split.  This split 
will be paid in the form of a 50% stock dividend.

The split will be payable on of April 23rd, 2002 to stockholders 
of record as of April 9, 2002.

ONFC has not split since it began trading in 1998.  Note that the 
stock trades on extremely light average volume of 727 shares/day.  
That's right, less than 1,000 shares a day.  The split will help 
increase liquidity but we would continue to avoid trading the 
stock due to volume issues.

The stock closed at $21.30 on Tuesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=ONFC


About the company
Oneida Financial Corp. reported total assets at December 31, 2001 
of $352.7 million and shareholders' equity of $45.0 million. The 
Company's wholly owned subsidiaries include; The Oneida Savings 
Bank, a New York State chartered FDIC insured stock savings bank, 
and the Bailey, Haskell & LaLonde Agency, an insurance and 
financial services company. (source: company press release)




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

SFN     Spherion Corp              11.81     +0.51
FLYA    CHC Helicopter             16.56     +0.67
STSA    Sterling Financial         20.79     +0.54

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

TTN     Titan Corp                 19.45     +1.10
HDWR    Headwaters Inc             14.50     +1.53
TREE    LendingTree Inc             9.75     +1.30
BLUD    Immucor Inc                13.45     +1.95

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

NKE     Nike Inc                   60.70     +2.21
DGX     Quest Diagnostic Inc       78.28     +1.65
SSP     E.W. Scripps Co            79.00     +1.89
TSS     Total System Services      26.81     +1.31
LE      Land's End Inc             54.69     +2.27
CTB     Cooper Tire & Rubber       21.89     +2.05

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

RTRSY   Reuters Group              44.80     -2.03
AVY     Avery Dennison Corp        58.90     -2.33
DOX     Amdocs Ltd                 26.60     -2.37
HRH     Hilb Rogal & Hamilton      31.40     -1.65

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

INTC    Intel Corp                 31.34     -1.65
KLAC    Kla-Tencor Corp            63.25     -2.86
REY     Reynolds & Reynolds Co     29.72     -0.08
MNI     The Mcclatchy Company      56.23     -1.23




=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

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Copyright © 2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




DISCLAIMER

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