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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 03/14/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 03-14-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Oracle says, "visibility remains poor".
Market Sentiment: Expiration week?
Play-of-the-Day:  From Watch List to Play List.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
      3-14-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10517.14 + 15.29 10551.11 10474.72  1.2 bln   1742/1384
NASDAQ   1854.14 -  7.89  1873.01  1851.38  1.4 bln   1986/1580
S&P 100   584.33 -  0.37   587.15   583.26   Totals   3728/2964
S&P 500  1153.04 -  1.05  1157.83  1151.08
RUS 2000  497.76 +  2.31   499.48   494.90
DJ TRANS 2950.91 +  1.07  2956.36  2926.72
VIX        22.02 +  0.05    22.27    21.38
VXN        42.33 -  0.93    44.15    42.13
TRIN        1.72
Put/Call Ratio       .84
-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Oracle says, "visibility remains poor"

Stocks finished today's session mixed with the Dow Industrials 
edging higher by 15 points as gains in deeper cyclicals Eastman 
Kodak (NYSE:EK) $32.35 +4.3%, Caterpillar (CAT) $58.66 +2.03 and 
International Paper (NYSE:IP) $44.27 +2.19% helped offset losses 
in technology related stocks like Hewlett Packard (NYSE:HWP) 
$19.40 -3.5%, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $30.97 -1.18% and Microsoft 
(NASDAQ:MSFT) $61.22 -1.4%.  

The broader S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) fell just 1 point to 1,153 with 
sector strength in the Forest/Paper Products Index (FPP.X) 
trading higher by +2.4% and Healthcare Index (RXH.X) +1.47% being 
negated by weakness in software stocks as depicted by the GSTI 
Software Index (GSO.X) -1.5% and Internet (INX.X) -2.07%.

Part of today's weakness in the software and Internet space was 
partially due to hesitancy among traders to enter positions ahead 
of tonight earnings from software giant Oracle Corporation 
(NASDAQ:ORCL) $13.45 -3.16%.

After the close of trading, Oracle (ORCL) announced 3rd-quarter 
earnings that met lowered guidance of $0.09 a share and revenues 
of $2.23 billion, which was slightly less than consensus of $2.42 
billion.

During the company's conference call the company said, "While 
economic data shows an improving economy, technology spending 
will continue to lag the overall economy."  The company provided 
little guidance going forward and "assuming conditions are not 
getting better" license growth was forecasted to be down 25%-30% 
versus last year, meaning EPS should be a penny or two below last 
year's Q4 earning of $0.15, so guidance going forward looks to be 
$0.13-$0.14, which is pretty much what analysts have been 
expecting.

Oracle Corporation Chart - Daily Interval




Shares of Oracle (ORCL) were trading lower in after-hours trading 
at $13.16.  After warning on earnings the evening of March 1, the 
stock gapped lower the next day and traded HUGE volume of 200 
million shares.  With end of quarter reports due to be sent out 
to shareholders at the end of the month, it was probably easier 
to just get the stock out of the portfolio than to try and 
explain the position.  With little visibility or guidance going 
forward, I'd expect ORCL to make a slow drift lower into the end 
of the month.  Then maybe, just maybe, some fund managers might 
start trying to sneak back into the stock and accumulate shares 
longer-term basis and see if things improve before the next 
quarterly update to shareholders is due the end of June.

Speaking of the economy

Tomorrow morning, investors will get bombarded with a barrage of 
economic data.  Before the opening bell, traders that are keeping 
an eye on potential inflation will be watching the producer price 
index reading, where economists are looking for a modest rise of 
0.2%.  The core rate, which excludes the more volatile food and 
energy components, is expected to rise just 0.1%.

More of a pulse for the economy will be the 09:15 AM EST release 
of February industrial production where economists are looking 
for a rise of 0.2% and a slight increase in capacity utilization 
of 74.3% (previous was 74.2%).

Today's January inventories data reported rise of 0.2%, which was 
a bit of an upside surprise compared to estimates looking for a 
decline of -0.3%.  With that observation made, I'd expect that 
the industrial production numbers might also be a little stronger 
as businesses may have had to step up some production to replace 
depleted inventories.  

At this point of the economic cycle (early recovery), the 
capacity utilization numbers won't be that important as there is 
plenty of capacity in the system.  I don't expect this number to 
drive market action, but a higher than expected number will 
simply confirm any thought that producers are perhaps pushing 
some product through a few more production lines.

Trader's may have noted that shares of Kohls (NYSE:KSS) $69.97 
+1.49% traded strong today, despite yesterday's weaker than 
expected retail sales numbers.  Watch our action point above the 
$70.50 level on KSS as tomorrow's University of Michigan Consumer 
Sentiment will be reported during market hours at around 09:45 AM 
EST.  Economists are looking for a March reading of 92.7, which 
would be higher than the previously reported 90.7.

Last night I talked briefly about how well the Retail Index 
(RLX.X) 959 +0.28% traded despite the weaker retail sales numbers 
and they edged higher today.  There's something "fishy" going on 
here and it may be that some bulls know something going forward 
and tomorrow's consumer sentiment may be strong.  If so a bull 
will want to have KSS on his/her possible list.

A couple other "retail" oriented stocks to keep an eye on have a 
"seasonal" theme to them.

Oakley (NYSE:OO) $18.31 +7.83% may be trying to run ahead of the 
summer season when sales tend to be robust.  This may be a play 
for swing-traders on a bullish consumer confidence number and a 
summer-time price target above $23 looks like a possibility.  
Bulls entering long can start with a stop just below the $16 
level.

Oakley Inc. Chart - Daily Interval




Here's a "retail" stock that held tough yesterday and bucked the 
market action in a major way today.  Looks like the stock is 
getting ready to put on a show and make a run into the early 
summer.  Perhaps consumers are going to spend the summer close to 
home and limit travel plans.  The money saved by not traveling to 
far away destinations may be spent on a stylish pair of Oakley's 
sunglasses so you look good at the beach this summer.

Harley Davidson Chart - Daily Interval




Need a new pair of sunglasses to go with that Harley Davidson 
(NYSE:HDI) this summer?  Similar looking chart pattern developing 
in HDI as found last spring.  Nice little pullback in early part 
of year, then a move off the bottom.  Not until the July 11th 
earnings were reported did the stock leap to final exhaustion.  
Smart bulls most likely sell the strength, then move on to other 
investment ideas until the spring summer run next year.  An 
investor eyeballing a trade in HDI might do it with a pair of 
Oakleys.  Would use the 200-day MA as a stop to start out with, 
and look to sell strength in July near $64.  The point/figure 
chart of HDI is bullish with a vertical count currently at $66.

OK.  A Harley is a little more expensive that a new pair of 
Oakley's, so I might be more inclined to be a little more bullish 
on a sunglass manufacturer than a maker of a rather expensive 
motor bike considering the past economic environment.  

You never know though do you.  When the YIELD on the 30-year fell 
sharply lower back in October, there's no telling how many people 
refinanced their mortgages and raised some cash.  If that very 
consumer is now growing more confident and they believe that 
their employment is secure, then there's some cash in the bank 
that may well be slated for a new hog with summer fast 
approaching.

What would you rather have?  A new outfit from Kohls?  Maybe a 
new set of sunglasses or a shiny new motorcycle?  I don't know 
about you, but I'm not in the market for a new fiber optic 
telecom switch from Lucent (LU) $4.83 -1.82%!

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


================
Market Sentiment
================

Expiration week?
by Russ Moore

Today’s action was downright dull, especially when you consider 
we’re in expiration week and a “triple withcher” no less.

The major indices spun their wheels for the entire session with 
the DOW scratching out a miniscule gain of +0.1 percent. The 
NASDAQ was buried under a mountain of negative analysts’ comments 
but held the losses to -0.4 percent. The big cap NDX was off -0.6 
percent.

Volume levels were anemic with the NYSE moving 1.20 billion 
shares and the NASDAQ 1.48 billion. Investors were probably more 
interested in “March madness” hoops than buying baskets of 
stocks. Market breadth was positive as winners slid past losers 
by a 17/14 margin on the big board and 20/16 on the tech index.

Software, Internet and hardware sectors faced the most intense 
selling pressure on the tech side while oil, oil service, drug 
and airline sectors were the broad markets biggest losers. Green 
arrows were seen in the paper, utility, cyclical and consumer 
arenas.

Without much in the way of positive corporate news i.e. strong 
earnings and growth prospects, investors have had to rely on 
economic numbers as their trading guide. Recent data has been 
surprisingly strong however the last few reports have been 
average at best, and is probably one reason why the markets have 
flattened out of late. 

Tomorrow’s PPI, consumer sentiment, and industrial 
production/capacity reports are the next market catalysts. 
Investors will be looking for a return to the juicy numbers seen 
over the last couple of weeks. Anything short of that will 
probably leave the markets with more red ink.

The other day we gave you Trim Tabs bearish commentary on the 
markets. Today we give you the other side. The S&P policy 
committee believes the intermediate term trend has reversed to 
bullish despite plenty of overhead supply. The committee noted 
that “some of the up-down volume indicators have turned bullish 
for the first time since last October.”


VIX
Thursday 03/14 close: 22.02


VXN
Thursday 03/14 close: 42.33


10-yr Bonds
Thursday 03/14 close: 5.40


Total Put/Call Ratio:  .84


Equity Option Put/Call Ratio:  .78


Index Option Put/Call Ratio:  1.07


===

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX/QQQ)
52-Week High: 103.51
52-Week Low:   28.19
Current close: 36.86

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 40/128,648
Maximum puts : 37/126,842

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 37
 20 DMA 36
 50 DMA 37
200 DMA 38

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 43.24 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  34.97 (02/08/02)
38% 38.13
50% 39.11
62% 40.10

===

S&P 100 Index (OEX)
52-Week High:  834.93
52-Week Low:   491.70
Current close: 584.33

Volume/Open Interest
Maximum calls: 600/7,109
Maximum puts : 560/7,684

Moving Averages
 10 DMA  586
 20 DMA  572
 50 DMA  573
200 DMA  588

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 600.80 (01/04/02)
Relative Low:  546.13 (01/30/02)
38% 567.00
50% 573.44
62% 579.99

===

S&P 500 (SPX)
52-Week High:  1530.01
52-Week Low:    965.80
Current close: 1154.09

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum calls: 1100/46,655
Maximum puts : 1100/53,885

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 1155
 20 DMA 1128
 50 DMA 1128
200 DMA 1147

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 1176.97 (01/07/02)
Relative Low:  1077.78 (02/06/02)
38% 1115.67
50% 1127.37
62% 1139.27

==

DJIA (INDU)
52-Week High:  11,518.83
52-Week Low:    8,235.81
Current close: 10,517.14

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 100/18,092
Maximum Puts   100/36,669

Moving Averages:
 10 DMA 10,532
 20 DMA 10,260
 50 DMA 10,033
 200 DMA 10,009

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 10,300.15 (01/07/02)
Relative Low    9,529.46 (01/30/02)
38%  9,823.86
50%  9,914.80
62% 10,007.28

==

Biotech Index (BTK)
52-Week High:  811.61
52-Week Low:   383.28
Current close: 517.24

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 520/962
Maximum Puts:  520/926

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 504
 20 DMA 497
 50 DMA 513
200 DMA 538

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 625.15 (12/06/01)
Relative Low:  450.20 (02/07/02)
38% 517.03
50% 537.67
62% 558.66

==

Semiconductor Index (SOX)
52-Week High: 1280.84
52-Week Low:   362.00
Current close: 578.84

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 630/  535
Maximum Puts:  500/1,580

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 602
 20 DMA 567
 50 DMA 557
200 DMA 544

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 606.88 (01/09/02)
Relative Low:  499.09 (01/22/02)
38% 540.26
50% 552.98
62% 565.91

==

Pharmaceutical Index (DRG)
52-Week High:  455.28
52-Week Low:   339.49
Current close: 388.22

Volume / Open Interest
Maximum Calls: 400/550
Maximum Puts:  380/800

Moving Averages
 10 DMA 387
 20 DMA 384
 50 DMA 379
200 DMA 388

Fibanocci Retracements
Relative High: 403.83 (11/26/01)
Relative Low:  365.22 (02/08/02)
38% 379.93
50% 384.51
62% 389.17

*****

CBOT Commitment Of Traders Report: Friday, 03/08. 
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts on the 
Chicago Board Of Trade. 

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs are not. 
Extreme divergence between each signals a possible market turn in 
favor of the commercial trader’s direction.   

S&P 500
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/19/02     355,905   772,569   (60,759)    5.5%
02/26/02     366,258   432,258   (66,000)    9.0%
03/05/02     361,254   445,989   (84,735)   28.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: (41,144)  - 5/1/01

Small Traders   Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/19/02       130,856    63,311    67,545     1.1%
02/26/02       139,183    62,087    77,096    14.1%
03/05/02       161,711    60,941   100,770    30.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 100,770 - 3/05/02

NASDAQ-100
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/19/02      33,871    35,690    (1,819)    (14.6%)
02/26/02      33,589    34,091      (502)    (72.0%)
03/05/02      37,549    35,419    (1,870)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  (1,825) - 1/02/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/19/02        9,966     8,073    1,893     18.8%
02/26/02        9,517    11,416   (1,899)  
03/05/02       11,961    11,214      747

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,028) - 1/02/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  - 3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials   Long      Short      Net     %Change 
02/19/02      29,606    17,953   11,653     12.9%
02/26/02      33,322    21,110   12,212      4.8%
03/05/02      37,036    25,554   11,482     (6.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year:  8,925  - 5/22/01

Small Traders  Long      Short      Net      %Change
02/19/02       4,654    10,431    (5,777)      5.5%
02/26/02       6,333    12,547    (6,214)      7.5%
03/05/02       6,589    13,057    (6,468)      4.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (7,572) - 5/08/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  - 1/16/01


                    Small Specs               Commercials
S&P 500         (Current)  (Previous)     (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value        +100,770     +77,096        -84,735    -66,000

Total Open
Interest %       (+45.26%)  (+38.30%)      (-10.50%)   (-8.26%)
                 net-long   net-long       net-short  net-short


                     Small Specs             Commercials
DJIA futures     (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value          -6,468     -6,214        +11,482   +12,212
Total Open
interest %       (-32.92%)    (-32.91)      (+17.59%)  (+22.43)
                 net-short   net-short       net-long    net-long


                     Small Spec              Commercials
NASDAQ 100      (Current) (Previous)    (Current) (Previous)
Open Interest
Net Value         +747      +1,899       -1,870     -502

Total Open
Interest %        (+3.22%)   (-9.07%)     (-2.71%) (-.74%)
                 net-long   net-short      net-short  net-short


What COT Data Tells Us
----------------------
Indices:.Last week I mentioned that a lack of commitment from the 
Commercial players i.e. a move in to accumulation mode, would 
make any rally suspect. Well folks, we got the move all right, 
but it’s not in the direction many people would expect. This week 
we have the Commercials adding substantially to their net-short 
positions. More importantly, the Small Specs were also adding 
large positions however; they were in long contracts. 

Remember we are looking for increased divergence between the 
big/small players. This week’s move should have anyone that is 
currently long the markets looking over their shoulder.

Gold:.It’s taken awhile, but maybe we’re finally starting to see 
why the Commercial players have maintained their short positions. 
The gold index (XAU) is starting to give back a little after 
enjoying a very nice run over the last couple of months. 

02/12 62,223 contracts net-short
02/19 60,054 contracts net-short
02/26 56,409 contracts net-short
03/05 58,666 contracts net-short

Data compiled as of Tuesday 03/05 by the CFTC.



===============
Play of the Day
===============
(( new Tech stock Short play ))

Check Point Software - CHKP - cls: 33.28 chg: -0.58 stop: 35.51

Company Description:
Check Point Software Technologies is the worldwide leader in 
securing the Internet. It is the confirmed market leader of both 
the worldwide VPN and firewall markets. The company's Secure 
Virtual Network (SVN) architecture provides the VPN and security 
infrastructure that uniquely enables secure and reliable Internet 
communications. SVN solutions, as delivered in the company's Next 
Generation product family, secure business communications and 
resources for corporate networks, remote employees, branch 
offices and partner extranets. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
It is no secret that the software sector has been one of the 
leaders to the downside during the last three sessions.  Sector 
leaders like MSFT have also been trading lower and this trend 
continued today.  A closer look of the last several sessions of 
the GSO.X software index shows how the sector rallied up to its 
50 & 200-dma's and promptly rolled over.  Today's trading ended 
with the index breaking under the 170 support level and is likely 
headed for a test of the 160 support level.  More negative news 
from the likes of ORCL is not going to inspire buyers in the 
group either.  We've had our eye on CHKP for a few days and put 
it in the watch list on Wednesday (yesterday).  CHKP had also 
rallied to its 200-dma before rolling over and closing back under 
its own 50-dma.  We have been using some fitted retracement 
levels from CHKP's September lows to its January highs and our 
trigger point was a move under $33.80.  A glance at the point-
and-figure chart also shows how CHKP had rallied near its 
descending bearish trend line before profit taking hit the share 
price.  MACD on the stock is starting to roll over just under the 
zero line, which helps confirm our bearish perspective.  We would 
expect some support near the $30 level but our goal is a retest 
of the February lows near $27.50.  We're going to start the play 
with a stop just above Wednesday's high at $35.51.  If you 
considering entry points you may want to look for any failed 
rally at $35.00 or a move under $33.00.  We're willing to enter 
the play here.  FYI, we don't think it has any affect on the 
stock price but we believe CHKP is based out of Israel and any 
increase in violence in the Mid East could be just one more 
sentiment factor hanging over CHKP's head.  

Editor's note: some traders may find it interesting or confusing 
that we have a short play on CHKP and a long play on MERQ, 
another software stock.  We like MERQ and it has been showing a 
decent amount of relative strength against the sector and the 
Nasdaq while CHKP has not and continues to violate levels to the 
downside.  We actually like the strategy of hedging our 
investments so if the market goes up we can benefit with 
leadership in MERQ and if the market goes down we can benefit 
from a lack of leadership in CHKP.  Be sure to maintain good stop 
losses!

Picked on March 14th at $33.28
Change since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date         01/15/02 (confirmed)
 





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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 03-14-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/c14b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Plays:    CHKP, EMLX
  Bullish Play Updates: BBH, MERQ, MONE, RIMM
  Bearish Play UPdates: BRCD, CLS

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates: COL, DOL, GE, KSS, OHP

High Risk / High Reward
  Bullish Play Updates: HIG, PVN
  Bearish Play Updates: ADLAC

Split Trader
                         IFNY: 2-for-1 split announcement
                         ADSK: 2-for-1 split announcement


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

============
NB New Plays
============

  ----------------
  New Bearish Play
  ----------------

Check Point Software - CHKP - cls: 33.28 chg: -0.58 stop: 35.51

Company Description:
Check Point Software Technologies is the worldwide leader in 
securing the Internet. It is the confirmed market leader of both 
the worldwide VPN and firewall markets. The company's Secure 
Virtual Network (SVN) architecture provides the VPN and security 
infrastructure that uniquely enables secure and reliable Internet 
communications. SVN solutions, as delivered in the company's Next 
Generation product family, secure business communications and 
resources for corporate networks, remote employees, branch 
offices and partner extranets. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
It is no secret that the software sector has been one of the 
leaders to the downside during the last three sessions.  Sector 
leaders like MSFT have also been trading lower and this trend 
continued today.  A closer look of the last several sessions of 
the GSO.X software index shows how the sector rallied up to its 
50 & 200-dma's and promptly rolled over.  Today's trading ended 
with the index breaking under the 170 support level and is likely 
headed for a test of the 160 support level.  More negative news 
from the likes of ORCL is not going to inspire buyers in the 
group either.  We've had our eye on CHKP for a few days and put 
it in the watch list on Wednesday (yesterday).  CHKP had also 
rallied to its 200-dma before rolling over and closing back under 
its own 50-dma.  We have been using some fitted retracement 
levels from CHKP's September lows to its January highs and our 
trigger point was a move under $33.80.  A glance at the point-
and-figure chart also shows how CHKP had rallied near its 
descending bearish trend line before profit taking hit the share 
price.  MACD on the stock is starting to roll over just under the 
zero line, which helps confirm our bearish perspective.  We would 
expect some support near the $30 level but our goal is a retest 
of the February lows near $27.50.  We're going to start the play 
with a stop just above Wednesday's high at $35.51.  If you 
considering entry points you may want to look for any failed 
rally at $35.00 or a move under $33.00.  We're willing to enter 
the play here.  FYI, we don't think it has any affect on the 
stock price but we believe CHKP is based out of Israel and any 
increase in violence in the Mid East could be just one more 
sentiment factor hanging over CHKP's head.  

Editor's note: some traders may find it interesting or confusing 
that we have a short play on CHKP and a long play on MERQ, 
another software stock.  We like MERQ and it has been showing a 
decent amount of relative strength against the sector and the 
Nasdaq while CHKP has not and continues to violate levels to the 
downside.  We actually like the strategy of hedging our 
investments so if the market goes up we can benefit with 
leadership in MERQ and if the market goes down we can benefit 
from a lack of leadership in CHKP.  Be sure to maintain good stop 
losses!

Picked on March 14th at $33.28
Change since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date         01/15/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Emulex Corp. - EMLX - close: 29.25 change: -1.83 stop: 32.31

Company Description:
Emulex Corp. is a leading supplier and developer of storage and 
server networking host bus adapters based on both Fibre Channel 
and IP networking technologies. Storage networks provide data 
centers with high-speed, scalable and highly available storage 
access. Server networks enable the creation of high-performance 
server clusters for database and transaction processing. 
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Premier readers know that we've had our eyes on EMLX for days.  
One way or the other it looked like the bears were going to take 
control again.  We wanted to see a breakdown or a failed rally 
emerge and the stock finally broke down under both the $30 level 
and its 200-dma in Thursday's session.  We already have one play 
in the storage networks arena with BRCD on the play list but BRCD 
has yet to trade through our trigger point.  Individual traders 
may not want to have exposure to both stocks and should choose 
the one they like best.  The same concerns over IT spending and 
lower earnings going forward as evidenced by the MCDTA warnings 
and the lowered guidance on EMC will also affect EMLX.  These 
concerns have resulted in a few downgrades.  EMLX was recently 
downgraded from a "strong buy" to a "market perform" and today 
Juniper Networks was downgraded from a "add" to a "hold".  
Traders should also note that shares of EMLX have been a bit 
volatile lately and they should place their stops carefully.  The 
point-and-figure chart on EMLX shows a fresh double-bottom 
breakout (sell signal).  The concern on the PnF chart is the 
rising bullish support near $26.00, which is 11% from current 
levels.  Fortunately, this is only one indicator as our 
retracement levels appear to be showing the next level of support 
at $24.75 to $24.00.  While we are encouraged by the breakdown of 
support and a set up for what could be a quick trade in EMLX we 
still urge caution as there have been a few bear traps sprung by 
the markets on a few of these breakout moves.  Thus, you may want 
to confirm stock and market direction before committing any 
capital.  Since this is an end-of-day newsletter we have to 
outline our strategy now.  We will initiate the play with a stop 
at $32.31, which is six cents above Wednesday's high.

Picked on March 14th at $29.25
Change since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date         01/22/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Biotech HOLDRs - BBH - close: 123.25 chg: +0.41 stop: 114.00

Is an action point coming up soon for these HOLDRs?  That just 
might be the case.  If you've been following along with our 
updates you're aware that the BBH has been range-bound.  Shares 
bounced between 116 and 123 for a few weeks, but lately have 
moved into a more narrow (and higher) range between 125 and 120.  
It's going to take some strong movement to push the BBH out of 
this range, and that could be tough if the market continues to 
trade sideways.  On the other hand, positive sector news from 
once of the biotech heavy hitters could get things moving.  In 
any case, we like the trend of higher highs and higher lows since 
early February.  As far as new positions, we'll continue to wait 
for the BBH to break higher.  Today's trading saw most biotechs 
trade without any real direction: AMGN, BGEN, CHIR, DNA, IDPH, 
and SEPR all posted fractional gains or losses.  A close over 
$124.50 would be a break above the 200-dma for the HOLDRs.

Picked on February 20th at $120.00
Gain since picked:           +3.25
Earnings Date                  N/A




---

Mercury Interactive - MERQ - cls: 39.44 chg: -0.26 stop: 37.75

The software index (GSO.X) hasn't performed so well over the past 
three sessions, following its failure at the 200-dma.  MERQ has 
held up relatively well, but shares weren't able to maintain the 
$40 level.  Before going any further in this update we should 
mention the ORCL news that came out in after-hours.  Their Q3 
earnings and revenue both fell short of estimates.  While that 
alone probably shouldn't have a large impact on the tech sector 
(like it may have had in the past), the forward-looking guidance 
was negative.  To quote Oracle CFO Jeff Henley: "Despite the fact 
that economic data suggest that the U.S. economy is starting to 
improve, it appears to us improvement in tech spending will 
continue to lag the overall economy...For the fourth quarter, 
we're going to assume things don't get any better."  Now if tech 
bears are looking for a reason to go short, this could be it.  
Whether or not the market blows off the news remains to be seen, 
but we're obviously expecting a downward bias for the software 
sector in tomorrow's trading.  Look for MERQ to find support 
between $39 (where it was trading in after-hours) and $38.  Dips 
to this level may prove to be a good entry point, but exercise 
extreme caution in light of the ORCL news.

Picked on March 11th at $41.58 
Change since picked:     -2.14
Earnings Date         01/22/02 (confirmed)




---

MatrixOne Inc - MONE - close: 12.95 chg: -0.19 stop: 12.75 *new*

Software weakness has been the theme for the last three trading 
sessions on the NASDAQ as MSFT (down another 1.41% today) led the 
sector lower.  The GSO.X software index had a nice run in recent 
weeks and its failure to trade above the 200-dma seemed to be the 
catalyst for some profit taking.  MONE was triggered as a long 
play on Monday after the stock traded above our action point at 
$14.05.  Unfortunately it was unable to buck the overall software 
trend and dropped back below the $14 level.  The failed rally has 
us nervous, but we're downright defensive after tonight's ORCL 
news (outlined in the MERQ updates and in the Market Wrap).  
We're raising our stop tonight to last Tuesday's low of $12.75.  
This doesn't allow much more breathing room, but the prospect of 
getting caught in a sector-wide sell-off isn't something we're 
going to risk.

Picked on March 11th at $14.05
Gain since picked:       -1.10
Earnings Date         01/23/02 (confirmed)



--- 

Research In Motion - RIMM - close: 27.87 change: -0.43 stop: 26.49

RIMM pegged a near-term high at $29.55 on Tuesday, but wasn't 
able to maintain those levels.  Although shares posted losses for 
the past two sessions we like what we see.  The selling came on 
decreasing volume, and the stock is still safely above support at 
$27.  If the NASDAQ drops tomorrow on the ORCL news, RIMM could 
retest that support.  Traders looking to open new bullish 
positions may want to wait for a bounce from that level.  With 
two levels of resistance (recent highs at $29.55 and 
psychological resistance at $30) the dip-buying strategy could be 
the most favorable from a risk/reward standpoint.  Our current 
stop at $26.49 is close enough to $27 to avoid getting caught in 
a breakdown, but more conservative traders could move their stop 
higher.

Picked on March 6th at $27.32 
Change since picked:    +0.55
Earnings Date        04/09/02 (unconfirmed)





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Brocade Comm. - BRCD - close: 27.02 change: -0.82 stop: see text

Nothing in the news today for BRCD but the industry continues to 
slide as investors move to the sidelines or short stocks in the 
group as reporters and analysts raise concerns over lowered IT 
spending affecting earnings.  We just added BRCD on Wednesday and 
while the stock is moving our direction it has not yet traded 
through our trigger point to short it.  Watch for BRCD to trade 
at or below $26.90.  Once that occurs we'll enter the play with 
an initial stop at $30.05.  You might notice we added EMLX to the 
play list tonight which also provides hardware and services for 
the storage networks business.  Traders may not want to have 
exposure to both if there is a reversal so pick the one you like 
best and fits your trading criteria.  Speaking of other stocks in 
the group, Juniper Networks (JNPR) which is more heavily focused 
in networking, was hammered with a downgrade from "add" to 
"hold".  The analyst at ABN AMRO did not have many positives to 
say about JNPR and shares quickly fell.  We wouldn't be surprised 
to see JNPR drop to $10 tomorrow and then struggle to maintain 
its old support levels at $9.00 in the near future.

Picked on March 13th at $xx.xx <- see text
Change since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---


Celestica - CLS - close: $38.00 change: +0.02 stop: 41.25

We were surprised that CLS managed to hug the $38 level despite 
the negative comments surfacing about other stocks with exposure 
in the electronics arena.  On the bigger picture, a CSFB analyst 
cut his growth forecasts on PC sales due to lack of improvement 
in the commercial sector.  They also cut earnings numbers on a 
handful of other electronics companies like SLR, JBL, SANM and 
more.  We doubt the outlook for CLS can be that rosy and 
investors are likely to continue taking money off the table from 
the early March rally.  The MACD is still looking bearish and 
rolling over at the zero line.  Traders may want to look for a 
move under $37.50 before initiating a play.  Shares of CLS did 
post a lower high due to selling pressure.

Picked on March 13th at $37.98
Change since picked:     -0.02
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (unconfirmed)
 





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Rockwell Collins - COL - cls: 24.03 chg: +0.05 stop: 23.24 *new*

Defense-related issues seem to be taking a breather after the 
recent run-up.  HON, LMT, UTX, and BA have all been consolidating 
in a small range.  COL actually hit new 52-week highs on Monday, 
but has seen similar consolidation over the past few sessions.  
Although shares gained fractionally today, a couple developments 
have us feeling defensive on COL.  Extending a regression channel 
back to September shows that Monday's rise pierced the top of an 
ascending channel.  Shares were unable to maintain any break out 
and the MACD looks overbought.  The consolidation has brought 
shares to the bottom of the channel, or maybe more correctly the 
bottom of the channel has caught up with COL's sideways 
consolidation.  Volume has been drying up which is what you would 
want to see on a pull back.  With this in mind, we're tightening 
our stop to $23.24, just below last Thursday's low and the 
current 10-dma.  This should be sufficient to lock in a $0.74 
gain from our original entry point but hopefully this is just a 
defensive measure we won't have to exercise. 

Picked on February 15th at $22.50
Gain since picked:          +1.53
Earnings Date            04/17/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Dole Food CO. - DOL - close: 30.11 change: +0.34 stop: 28.49

Well, there's that close over $30.  We've been waiting a week to 
see if DOL could trade back over resistance at that level.  The 
1.14% gain came on extremely low volume of 94K...That's the 
lowest reading since November.  We wouldn't read too much into 
that, because of the general lack of volume in the broader market 
today.  In any case, we're looking for DOL to move higher from 
current levels and trade though recent highs at $31.46.  The 
oscillators offer some encouragement that this may happen: Daily 
stochastics have turned back up.  Tomorrow's market action will 
largely be dictated by the spate of economic data being released.  
If the reaction is favorable then traders could consider taking a 
long position if DOL moves higher on the news, but this stock is 
a relatively slow mover.  However, since it has been basing along 
the bottom of its ascending channel this makes a good risk/reward 
entry point.  Conservative traders could actually use a tighter 
stop than the one we have suggested. 

Picked on March 1st at $30.94
Gain since picked:      -0.83
Earnings Date         01/31/02 (confirmed)




---

General Electric - GE - close: 40.41 change: +0.41 stop: see text

There wasn't much action to speak of on the Dow Jones today.  GE 
reflected the broader market and traded an "inside day," with the 
low exactly at $40.  A break under this support level tomorrow 
could lead to some sharp selling.  Whether or not this occurs may 
depend on how the market reacts to Friday morning's economic 
data.  Shares could head higher towards a test of resistance at 
$42, although the declining 200-dma overhead at 41.06 may act as 
resistance before the stock has a chance to attack that level.  
Our strategy for entries remains the same:  If GE trades at or 
above $42.05, we'll go long with a stop at $39.79.

Picked on March xth at $xx.xx <- See text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        01/17/02 (confirmed)




---

Kohls - KSS - close: 69.97 change: +1.03 stop: see text

We added KSS as a long play on Tuesday night in an attempt to 
capitalize on favorable retail numbers the following morning.  
Those numbers didn't turn out as positive as expected, but we 
were nonetheless surprised at the retail sectors' response - or 
lack thereof.  Some profit taking could've been expected in the 
RLX.X retail index after last week's gains, and the unimpressive 
economic numbers would've been the perfect excuse.  The lack of 
selling is positive for the sector and KSS.  Today the stock 
outperformed the broader market with a 1.49% gain and briefly 
traded over resistance at $70.  While shares pulled back from 
this level, the move was enough to create a bullish triangle 
breakout on the p-n-f chart.  Tomorrow morning is full of another 
round of economic numbers, including Consumer Sentiment.  Because 
this number usually rises with the NASDAQ (which has traded 
higher over the past few weeks), we're expecting a strong 
reading.  If this is the case then KSS could quickly trade above 
our trigger at $70.50, at which point we'd go long with a stop at 
$66.75.
 
Picked on March xth at $ xx.xx
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date 03/05/02 (confirmed)

---

Oxford Health - OHP - close: 40.22 change: +0.52 stop: 37.49*new*

OHP has been strong all week but really showed some upside 
momentum today.  Shares moved back over resistance at $40 and hit 
a new 52-week high at $40.98.  The 1.30% move outperformed the 
broader market, reflecting sector bullishness.  The HMO.X 
healthcare index is threatening to break to all-time highs, but 
faces significant resistance at 500.  A move over $41 would not 
only be a break to new highs, but also produce a double-top 
breakout on the p-n-f chart.  The MACD has also produced a 
bullish crossover and is heading higher from near the baseline.  
Thus, a move over $41 could be a good time to consider new long 
entries.  However, watch how the HMO behaves around 500.  This 
level has kept a lid on the index on three previous rally 
attempts over the past two years.  Traders may also want to note 
that OHP has been stair-stepping up over the past week with a 
trend of shooting up in the morning and consolidating those gains 
in the afternoon.  Keep this in mind if considering entries later 
in the day.  Given the length of the rally in the healthcare 
sector and OHP we wouldn't be surprised to see some profit 
taking.  This means a bounce near $39 might be another entry 
point as well.  We are going to raise our stop to $37.49 as we 
see the $38 level as support.  In the news today, OHP completed 
its $18 Million acquisition MedSpan Inc.

Picked on March 8th at $38.55
Gain since picked       +1.67
Earnings Date        02/05/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Hartford Financial Svc - HIG - cls: 66.87 chg: +1.13 stop: 64.45

It appears that we were not the only ones that noticed the entry 
point in HIG at the bottom of its channel yesterday.  Shares of 
the insurance-financial giant took off at a fast pace this 
morning and didn't slow down until they had crossed the $67.50 
level.  The rest of the session was spent trading sideways much 
like the Dow Jones.  We're obviously encouraged by the move and 
still feel that the stock is offering short-term bullish traders 
a chance to capture the move up to $70 and potentially $72.  If 
the market falls tomorrow we would look for a dip to $66 in HIG 
but it may not offer any weakness.

Picked on March 13th at $65.74
Change since picked:     +1.13
Earnings Date         01/28/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Providian Financial - PVN - close: 5.80 change: +0.30 stop: 4.85

Checking the sector indices first revealed that the BIX.X and the 
BKX.X are both battling with overhead resistance.  Truthfully, 
they are holding up rather well given the market weakness 
yesterday but still look a bit over extended.  Be sure to keep an 
eye on them as a breakdown in the group could easily become a 
lead weight around any individual financial stock's neck.  
However, since we're talking about groups, PVN's competitors COF, 
MBI and HI are doing well but appear to have charts similar to 
the indices.  HI is looking the weakness but may just be 
experiencing profit taking before its brethren.  MBI actually 
looks pretty strong and bounced up today as did PVN.  Among the 
four, PVN is the dark horse in this race but probably has the 
best upside since expectations are already so beaten down.  In 
Tuesday's update we anticipated a potential pull back to the 
$5.50 level for PVN and that's exactly where the stock traded to 
during the Wednesday market weakness.  Shares dipped to $5.40 
early today but managed a strong 5.45% move by the close.  
Remember that this is a high-risk play and volatility is expected 
with this stock.  While we are looking for PVN to trade higher 
from here you need to be diligent with your stop losses.  A more 
conservative high-risk trader (sounds like an oxymoron) might 
want to consider putting a stop under today's low or a bit lower 
under the 10-dma at $5.30.  We are leaving our stop at $4.85 for 
the moment.

Picked on March 8th at $5.71
Change since picked:   +0.09
Earnings Date       02/07/02 (confirmed)
 





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Adelphia Comm. - ADLAC - cls: 22.51 chg: -0.59 stop: 24.76 *new*
 
Finally we are getting some confirmation of weakness we had been 
anticipating all along.  Not only has the stock moved through our 
trigger last Tuesday but it has retraced back to bottom of its 
trading channel from early February at $21.50.  Aside from a late 
day bounce in the stock price the bears look pretty good.  We 
would anticipate resistance to be the $24.00 level.  Thus we will 
lower our stop to $24.76, which is just above the Wednesday high.  
This play does indeed look encouraging as the MACD is beginning 
to roll over right at the zero line.  For those traders doing 
their homework on ADLAC I have to give some credit to Bambi 
Francisco on the CBSMW website for her reports on the ADLAC/CMCSK 
cable swap deal that looked so suspicious.  Her latest update 
goes into the problem of trying to find a fair value for this 
swap with all the company information available (like the 10Qs).  
There was such a difference between what CMCSK valued the swap at 
and what ADLAC valued it at we were wondering if we had another 
Global Crossing bandwidth scam going on.  Her conversations with 
an analyst in the industry was rather interesting and (for me) it 
only reinforces the need for individuals to do their own research 
in addition to what you get from analysts when you're investing 
in a company.  Since we're just trading ADLAC we get to play the 
swings in the stock price caused by such misconceptions and 
temporary price fluctuations.  Our target price will be the 
February bottom near $19.00.  Traders looking for new entries 
might want to look for a failed rally at $24 or a new move under 
$22 or $21.50.

Picked on March 12th at $23.99 
Gain since picked:       +1.48
Earnings Date         03/29/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
Split Trader (ST) section
==================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------


Heads Up On 2-for-1 at INFINITY.

Before the bell, INFINITY, Inc. (Nasdaq:IFNY) announced both the 
financial results for its fiscal transition period ending Dec. 
31st, 2001 and a 2-for-1 stock split.

The company was reporting its fiscal performance today in an 
effort to change its fiscal year to Dec. 31st versus its previous 
fiscal year end of March 31st.

The Board of Directors approved a 2-for-1 stock split but the 
company did not offer any dates.  The split is planned for mid-
April.  

The stock has been very volatile lately and shares have 
appreciated $6.40 or 56% in March 2002 alone.

The stock closed at $17.79 on Wednesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=IFNY


About the company
Infinity, Inc. is an independent energy exploration and 
development company with a specific focus upon coalbed methane 
projects. The Company has obtained the rights to develop 
approximately 70,000 acres for prospective coalbed methane 
production in its three projects that are located in the Greater 
Green River Basin in Wyoming and the Piceance Basin in 
Northwestern Colorado. Infinity's Consolidated Oil Well Services, 
Inc. subsidiary provides oilfield services (including well 
enhancement, fracturing, cementing, acidizing and nitrogen 
pumping) in Kansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming. (source: company press 
release)


--------


After The Bell: ADSK declares 2-for-1 Split

After the closing bell today, Autodesk, Inc. (Nasdaq:ADSK) 
released news that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 
stock split and a quarterly cash dividend.  

This 2-for-1 split of ADSK's common stock will be a 100% stock 
dividend for shareholders on record as of April 4th, 2002.  The 
distribution date will be Thursday, April 18th, 2002.  The stock 
split will increase shares outstanding to almost approximately 110 
million shares.

The quarterly cash dividend will be $0.06 per share on a pre-split 
basis and is payable on April 18th for shareholders on record as 
of April 4th, 2002.

The stock has appreciated 20% from its January 2nd, 2002 close and 
more than 50% from its September lows.  Volume has been trailing 
off lately as the stock looks to be forming a pennant pattern with 
both higher lows and lower highs.  A breakout one way or the other 
looks imminent.

The stock closed at $44.60 on Thursday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=ADSK


About the company
Founded in 1982, Autodesk, Inc., is the world's leading design and 
digital media creation, management, and distribution company. The 
company serves a diverse portfolio of markets, including building 
design, geographic information systems, manufacturing, digital 
media, and wireless data services. By delivering tools that foster 
innovation and creativity, Autodesk helps customers throughout the 
value chain leverage digital design data to work better, faster, 
and smarter. (source: company press release)




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

NVS     Novartis Ag                39.02     +1.10
AHG     Apria Healthcare Group     24.00     +0.99
SKE     Spinnaker Exploration      43.44     +1.14
CMTL    Comtech Telecomm.          12.90     +1.02

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

OO      Oakley Inc                 18.31     +1.33
PAX     Paxson Communications      11.79     +1.19
MWY     Midway Games Inc           13.70     +2.00
ENDO    Endocare Inc               16.96     +1.56

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

WY      Weyerhaeuser Co            65.17     +2.87
NKE     Nike Inc                   62.76     +2.06
MBI     M B I A Inc                58.60     +1.83
SSP     E.W. Scripps Co            80.20     +1.20
HSC     Harsco Corp                39.01     +1.09

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MU      Micron Technology          32.02     -2.08
TECD    Tech Data Corp             43.83     -1.85
URBN    Urban Outfitters Inc       22.72     -1.56
CSGS    CSG Systems Intl. Inc      30.14     -5.31

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BA      Boeing Co                  47.61     -1.61
TSG     Sabre Holdings Corp        45.50     -2.00
MHO     M I Schottenstein          58.81     -1.79



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