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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 04/02/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 04-02-2002
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Words To Live By
Market Sentiment: Tech Wreck
Play-of-the-Day:  Drug-induced Weakness

-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
-----------------------------------------------------------------  
     04-02-2002          High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10313.71 - 48.99 10352.46 10264.86 1.17 bln   1506/1651
NASDAQ   1804.40 - 58.22  1839.37  1804.40 1.52 bln   1366/2147
S&P 100   571.48 -  5.28   576.68   570.67   Totals   2872/3798
S&P 500  1136.76 -  9.78  1146.54  1135.71
RUS 2000  500.49 -  4.01   504.50   500.49
DJ TRANS 2790.19 - 77.39  2867.00  2790.19
VIX        20.81 +  0.76    21.21    20.51
VXN        39.15 +  2.70    39.54    38.24
TRIN        1.75
PUT/CALL    0.85


-----------------------------------------------------------------

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Words to live by

I stopped counting and responding to the number of e-mails from 
subscribers wondering if today's 32.67% drubbing in shares of 
PeopleSoft (NASDAQ:PSFT) was "overdone."  Yes, I think it was 
overdone, but this is what can happen when revenues wane and 
disappointment becomes realized.

I have no clue who Al Rizzo is, but in 1986 he said, "When a 
falling stock becomes a screaming buy because it cannot 
conceivably drop further, try to buy it 30% lower."

Ouch!  That's harsh.  Today, shares of PeopleSoft (PSFT) were the 
3rd most actively traded stock with over 66.5 million shares 
traded.  We would have to go back to October of 1998 to find the 
next most active trading day for this stock at 44.7 million when 
the stock fell from a previous night's close of $32.50 to the 
next day's close of $24.31.  Six months later (04/20/99), PSFT 
had been cut nearly in half before trading the $11.50 level and 
finding a bottom.

I'm not saying that PSFT can't rebound and that the selling was 
indeed overdone, but generally speaking, stocks that get a $3 
billion dollar market capitalization "haircut" in one day, don't 
show up on my radar screen for at least a couple of months and 
often times don't show up on institutional radar screens for more 
aggressive accumulation either.

I have no clue who Justin Mamis is, but he said, "Institutions 
tend to dump stock in a single transaction and buy, if possible, 
in smaller lots, gradually accumulating a position.  Therefore, 
many more big blocks are traded on downticks than on upticks."

I'm guessing that today's 66.5 million shares traded saw a lot of 
large blocks hitting the bid.  Even from the opening of trading 
at $27.85, the stock declined some 9.6% into the close.

In all, the point I'd try and make in PSFT is that the "bad news 
is out" and a lot of damage was done in a single session.  I 
think there's more damage still to be done to the downside as the 
stock has now become "out of favor" near-term.  Unfortunately our 
play list hadn't profiled the stock as a bearish play.  
Fortunately our play list hadn't profiled the stock as bullish.  
Simply stated, we missed the move and will just monitor for now 
and look for an entry point at a later date. 

First hour of trading will be interesting 

You can bet that software bulls will have some thinking to do 
tonight.  The broader GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 155.31 -6.56% 
was today's sector loser and tonight's close was smack dab on the 
mid-point of our downward regression channel.  The close below 
upward trend is bearish and the first hour of trading in this 
sector could decide how many software stocks trade over the next 
week or so.  A break lower and the GSO.X looks "sure" to test the 
February 22nd lows of 149.  You can bet some analysts are calling 
around at other software makers to see how business is going and 
if they don't like what they hear, then the 140 level may not be 
too far off.

GSTI Software Index Chart - Daily Interval



If nothing else, the regression channel gives hint that any trade 
initiated in the group at this point is a 50/50 proposition.  The 
bears look to have the upper hand as the bullish trend has been 
violated and overriding trend from regression is now down.

I can't remember who said, "The trend is your friend so trade 
it," but that saying has helped me over the years.

Assessing risk

The markets never cease to amaze me.  Right now, I want to 
preserve gains when I've got them.  If the software sector is 
going to lay a "golden egg" for our play list tomorrow in 
software-related stocks Check Point Software (NASDAQ:CHKP) $28.01 
-5.05% and Internet Security Systems (NASDAQ:ISSX) $21.81 -0.41% 
then tomorrow should be the day.  If not, proper trade management 
has us lower a tight stop in Check Point Software (CHKP) as the 
play list carries a 15% gain into the close.  See tonight play 
updates.

I would have thought that Internet Security (ISSX) would have 
gotten clobbered today, but it didn't.  This hints that some 
shorts were covering in the stock today and buying weakness found 
in the group.  Near-term, a bear in ISSX wants to see the short-
covering stop and have the stock getting sold to a retracement 
target of $17.26.

Internet Security Systems Chart - Daily Interval



A bearish trader in ISSX finds the stock attracting some buyers 
on lower lows near the middle-point of our downward regression.  
The stock looks to have about a 4-day head start on the GSTI 
Software Index (GSO.X) as it relates to a similar break of upward 
trend.  If the stock is going to fall to my 19.1% retracement 
level of $17.26, I'd sure like to see it happen in the next 
couple of days.  If the sector (GSO.X) will cooperate, then I 
feel a bear has that much better of a chance for lower prices in 
ISSX.  

But I feel I'm covering too soon!

I don't know who Barron Rothchild is, but his success formula 
stated, "I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon."  

This is a statement for a "buy side" trader/investor.  A bearish 
trader from Barron Jeff Bailey's school would say, "I never cover 
at the bottom and I always buy too soon."

Still cautious on technology

Last night I was listening to Erik Gustafson, fund manager of 
Libery Growth Fund's "Liberty Growth Investor Fund." 

I don't know Erik, but have grown to like the guy.  I remember 
him getting rather "emotional" on CNBC back sometime ago when a 
stock named Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) $16.41 -6.33% was trading 
just above the $50 level.  He was rather vehement that Cisco 
(CSCO) would hold above $50 and if the MARKET wanted to sell it 
to him below $50, he'd be a buyer.

Well... time heels all wounds and now Erik Gustafson is saying 
that he feels it is just too early to be buying technology 
stocks.  He feels there day will come, but thinks it is just a 
little early.

I think today's "warning" from PeopleSoft (PSFT) really did catch 
a lot of institutions off guard.  I really didn't see anything in 
the technicals other then a bearish vertical count from the point 
and figure chart hinting at $29 that would have given anyone the 
"heads up" on the revenue disappointment.

What today's action in PSFT is most likely going to do is have 
tech bulls pulling in the reins a bit.  "Maybe the tech recovery 
isn't upon us!" will become the mantra.  

Now, there will be those that wonder why I'm mentioning a fund 
manager that called Cisco completely wrong at $50 when the stock 
now trades $16.41.

I'm not saying the Erik Gustafson is anymore right than we've 
been in the past couple of months when cautioning on technology 
stock, but I do give him some credit as he just doesn't find a 
fundamental catalyst at this point.  If anything, his fundamental 
observations today, somewhat confirm what the charts have been 
saying for the past several months.

It's when a tech stock like PSFT "blows up" and there was little 
in the technicals hinting that something was wrong, that will 
keep most bulls on the sidelines and looking for stocks in 
sectors where earnings seem to be a little more predictable.

I think Erik knows there still plenty of time to be getting long 
some technology stock.  Good call Erik!

Jeff Bailey


================
Market Sentiment
================

Tech Wreck
By Eric Utley

Our cautious, or bearish, stance on tech stocks was justified
in Tuesday's session.  Since the reversal in the Nasdaq-100
Bullish Percent ($BPNDX), we've been urging readers to take
defensive measures in technology.  We hope that the aggressive
readers took action in the recent weeks to benefit from
Tuesday's decline in tech shares.

The sector scorecard finished with a decided trend of weakness
in tech shares.  The Software Sector Index (GSO.X) carried the
day with its 6.56 percent decline.  Other notable moves in the
tech space included the 4.97 percent drop in the Optical Sector
Index (FOP.X), the 3.71 percent drop in the Semiconductor
Sector Index (SOX.X), and the 3.66 percent decline in the
Internet Sector Index (INX.X).

The day's best performing stocks were confined to the energy
space.  All four of the energy-related sectors that I track
finished well into positive territory, led by the 1.70 percent
pop in the Natural Gas Sector Index (XNG.X).

In the fear department, both major measures finished higher in
Tuesday's session.  The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX.X)
broke above what I consider its short-term descending trend.
That move leads me to believe that fear is on the rise, and
that the bears may be gaining some conviction.

Elsewhere, Treasuries rallied across the curve on what appeared
to be a mix of short covering and defensive positioning.  The
benchmark 10-Year Yield (TNX.X) finished at 5.348%, lower by
1.47 percent.

These are the indicators to trade off of in the coming days.
Further strength in bonds could take capital away from stocks.
And heightened fear levels will have the bulls running for the
door.

Finally, the most recent COT data is updated in this column.
We see a further divergence in the market that matters, the
S&P 500 (SPX.X), between commercial interests and small traders.
The commercials are decidedly bearish while the small traders
adopted their most bullish position in more than a year.  Watch
out bulls!

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages


DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     : 10314

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10419
 50-dma: 10133
200-dma:  9974

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1137

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1149
 50-dma: 1128
200-dma: 1141


Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1410

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1461
 50-dma: 1477
200-dma: 1534


Natural Gas ($XNG)

Spot prices (NG02K) rallied for the second straight day Tuesday,
sending equities sharply higher.  The XNG earned the day's best
performing sector spot with its 1.70 percent gain.

Sector leaders included Dynergy (NYSE:DYN), El Paso (NYSE:EP),
EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Questar (NYSE:STR), and Apache
(NYSE:APA).

52-week High: 264
52-week Low : 157
Current     : 200

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 195
 50-dma: 178
200-dma: 192


Software ($GSO)

The GSO was the worst performing sector in Tuesday's session,
knocked down by a one-two punch from Peoplesoft (NASDAQ:PSFT)
and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).  The GSO finished a painful 6.56
percent lower.

Leading to the downside included shares of Peoplesoft, Rational
(NASDAQ:RATL), Broadvision (NASDAQ:BVSN), and E Piphany
(NASDAQ:EPNY).

52-week High: 246
52-week Low : 112
Current     : 155

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 164
 50-dma: 171
200-dma: 174

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX spiked higher in Monday's session and continue higher
during Tuesday's session.  I consider the last two days of
strength a reversal of the short-term descending trend.  I'm
looking for a trade past 23.50 to break the intermediate-term
trend.

In the VXN, I'm looking for a spike above 40 to break the
short-term descending trend.  Such a move would signal a rise
in fear on the part of NDX options market participants.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 20.68 +0.63
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 39.32 +2.87

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.73        373,543       274,168
Equity Only    0.60        328,832       197,819
OEX            1.58          8,859        13,993
QQQ            2.01         26,978        54,106
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          64      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    54      - 1     Bull Correction
DOW           77      + 3     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       74      + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       76      + 1     Bull Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.34
10-Day Arms Index  1.19
21-Day Arms Index  1.08
55-Day Arms Index  1.22

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1506           1651
NASDAQ    1366           2147

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE      150             54
NASDAQ    125             51

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,174
NASDAQ   1,525

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/26/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercial traders grew more bearish during the most recent
reporting period by dropping a number of long positions while
maintaining their number of shorts.  Meanwhile, small traders
reached their most bullish net position in more than a year.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
03/12/02      396,050   483,606   (87,556)   (9.9%)
03/19/02      322,938   410,494   (87,556)  (11.9%)
03/26/02      317,671   410,186   (92,515)  (12.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/12/02      179,825     75,025  104,800     42.6%
03/19/02      145,262     43,066  102,196     54.3%
03/26/02      148,111     40,409  107,702     57.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials didn't do much in the last week.  The group's
net bearish position dropped by only 300 contracts.  Small
traders added a small number of longs.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
03/12/02       37,415     42,942    (5,527)   (6.9%)
03/19/02       24,792     33,699    (8,907)  (15.2%)
03/26/02       25,275     33,880    (8,605)  (14.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
03/12/02       14,571    13,045     1,526      5.5%
03/19/02       11,637     5,527     6,110     35.6%
03/26/02       12,760     6,264     6,496     34.1% 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders shed a significant number of long positions,
while dropping a small number of short positions.  The result
was a drop in the group's net bullish position.  Small traders
added longs and dropped shorts for a drop in the group's net
bearish position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/12/02       35,080    23,204   11,876     20.4%
03/19/02       20,858    13,283    7,575     22.2%
03/26/02       17,973    12,539    5,434     17.8% 

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
03/12/02        6,400    13,070    (6,670)   (34.3%)
03/19/02        4,651    10,367    (5,716)   (38.1%)
03/26/02        5,818     9,308    (3,490)   (23.1%) 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------


===============
PLAY-of-the-Day  ((New BEARISH play))
===============

Teva Pharmaceutical - TEVA - cls: 51.90 chg: -1.09 stop: 54.18

Company Description:
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., headquartered in Israel, is 
among the top 40 pharmaceutical companies and among the largest 
generic pharmaceutical companies in the world. Over 80% of Teva's 
sales are in North America and Europe. The company develops, 
manufactures and markets generic and branded human 
pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients (source: 
company press release)

Why We Like It:
The DRG.X drug index has been looking weak ever since negative 
news from BMY tanked the sector on March 20th.  While the index 
has found support at 375, shareholders of TEVA have had no such 
luck.  The stock has seen a precipitous decline since failing to 
move over resistance at $58.  On Monday shares gapped below 
support at $53.50 as nervous investors dumped this Israeli-based 
company.  Technically speaking, TEVA looks very weak.  The p-n-f 
chart is showing a fresh double-bottom breakdown and the MACD 
just gave a bearish crossover on Monday.  Volume has also been 
steadily increasing over the last few days.  Now that shares have 
fallen below the September lows, we think the bearish vertical 
count at $42 could be within reach.  Entries can be considered on 
continued weakness from current levels.  More cautious traders 
may want to first wait for support at 375 to fail on the DRG.X, 
although TEVA may head lower with or without a weak sector.  
We're starting this play with a stop at $54.19, just above 
Monday's high.  

Picked on April 2nd at $51.90 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        02/14/02 (confirmed)
 




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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Tuesday 04-02-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/d02b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  New Bearish Play:     RETK
  Bullish Play Updates: NVLS
  Bearish Play Updates: BCE, BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, CVG, ISSX
  Closed Bearish Play:  NVDA

Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  New Bullish Play:     TEVA
  Bullish Play Updates: CAH, DOL, HC, KSS, OHP, PSS
  Closed Bullish Play:  HRB

High Risk / High Reward
  Bullish Play Updates: HIG
  Bearish Play Updates: QCOM

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) section
==================================================================

===============
NB New Plays
===============

  -----------------
  New Bearish Play
  -----------------

Retek Inc. - RETK - close: 25.28 change: -1.03 stop: see text

Company Description:
Retek Inc. is a leading provider of software solutions and 
services to the retail industry. Retek's collaborative solutions 
help the retail industry create, manage and fulfill consumer 
demand. The RIS News Leaderboard 2001 ranked Retek the #1 
software vendor for retail. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It: 
Internet stock or software stock, whatever the case the weakness 
in the Nasdaq is not a good sign for shares of RETK.  The strong 
volume decline helped confirm the bearish crossover in the MACD 
and shares appear precariously perched at the $25 level.  While 
the 50-dma appears like it could offer some support, the point-
and-figure chart is showing a fresh triple bottom breakdown.  We 
feel that the stock could pull back to the $20 level, which just 
happens to be the PnF support line.  However, we are feeling a 
bit cautious and want shares to trade back under the $25.00 
level.  Our entry price will be $24.99 and if we're triggered 
we'll start the play with a stop at $26.41, which is just above 
Monday's high.  If shares trade to $20.49 we'll close it out.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- See text 
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        01/22/02 (confirmed)
 




===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Novellus Systems - NVLS - cls: 52.06 chg: -1.72 stop: *text*

That's why we like to use trigger points.  The SOX closed back 
under the 600 level after a very bullish showing on April 1st.  
NVLS closed down 3% but remains in its sideways consolidation 
pattern.  We will continue to wait and see if NVLS can trade at 
or above our trigger point of $55.05.  More aggressive traders 
might want to consider bounces at the $50 level but if shares 
trade that low we'd be concerned about the overall sector 
strength.  

Picked on March xth at  $xx.xx
Change since picked:     +0.00 <- see text
Earnings Date         04/15/02 (unconfirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

B C E Inc. - BCE - close: 18.15 change: +0.60 stop: 18.61*new*

Tuesday's 3.4% bounce in BCE is either a late reaction to 
Monday's bounce in the IXTCX combined telecom index or some of 
the short-covering we had expected a couple of days ago.  On a 
very short-term basis the move over $18.00 today looks bullish 
and shares could rally.  The next question is how high.  
Optimistically, bulls might be hoping for a move to its 10-dma 
near $19.40 (our entry price) or even a move back to $20, which 
should be tough resistance.  However, we're going to see if the 
$18.50 level can turn back any advance.  We're going to place our 
stop at $18.61, which only protects a move of 80 cents but that's 
still 4% at these prices.  Since nothing moves in a straight line 
the recent bounce is not unexpected.  Reuters had a good article 
recently highlighting some of the issues that investors may have 
been using as an excuse to sell the stock.  One of the issues is 
the general malaise affecting all large telecom networks but BCE 
also has a couple of other enterprises, Teleglobe, Inc. and BCE 
Emergis Inc., that appear to be a large drain on cash flow.  
Furthermore, SBC (NYSE:SBC) has a right to sell back its 20% 
stake in Bell Canada, which could run near $2.4 billion in 
Canadian dollars.

Picked on March 22nd at $19.40
Gain since picked:       +1.25
Earnings Date         04/23/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Broadcom Corp - BRCM - close: 34.49 change: -2.71 stop: 38.45

We may be on the verge of a move after shares of BRCM have 
traveled sideways for the last two weeks.  Shares preformed their 
second failed rally attempt at the $38 level on Monday as the 
chip sector helped lead the tech sector higher.  It was all a big 
April fools joke as analysts came out with negative comments on 
multiple tech industries today that ate up the majority of 
Monday's gains across the market.  Traders looking to move in on 
momentum can wait for BRCM to trade under $34.35 or for more 
confirmation wait for a move under $34.  Our initial target is 
still the $30 level.  FYI: BRCM just confirmed their Q2 earnings 
date as April 17th, 2002.

Picked on March 25th at $35.75
Gain since picked:       +1.26
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Check Point Software - CHKP - cls: 28.01 chg: -1.49 stop: 28.75*new*

We already knew there were concerns over the security software 
group but CHKP is getting hit hard due to more focused questions 
over its relationship with one so called subsidiary or was that 
an affiliate.  As investors and investigators continue to pay 
close attention to the accounting question the lack of 
transparency in CHKP's relationship with privately held SofaWare 
has come under the gun.  Pessimists feel that CHKP may have 
created SofaWare as an agent to offload a significant part of 
their expenses, which would allow CHKP to keep its high profit 
margins.  Nay-sayers point to PeopleSoft as an example, who 
created publicly traded Momentum Business Applications with only 
one employee.  This allowed PSFT to slide a lot of its research 
and development costs to this shell of a company.  With the lack 
of hard data on CHKP's relationship with SofaWare, which has been 
called both an affiliate and a subsidiary, some investors are 
choosing to hit the sell button.  According to the news, CHKP has 
an exclusive license to sell SofaWare's products and while they 
already own 20% of the company they also hold warrants for up to 
66% of the company.  There seems to be a difference of opinion 
among Wall Street's elite on whether this should be a concern or 
not but it appears the market is voting with its money.  Today's 
negative comments on software giant MSFT and the warning by PSFT 
only add more pressure to the stock in an already weak group.  If 
CHKP trades at or below $27.00 it would be a triple bottom sell 
signal on its point-and-figure chart.  While we are encouraged by 
the breakdown under the $30 level of support we are going to get 
rather conservative with our stop placement.  More aggressive 
traders may want to move their stop to just above $30 and see how 
far CHKP can drop.  We are going to tighten our stop to $28.75 
and protect a $4.50 move or 13%.  If shares trade under $27.00 
we'd expect the stock to test support at $25.00 soon thereafter.


Picked on March 14th at $33.28
Gain since picked:       +5.27
Earnings Date         01/15/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 16.41 change: -1.11 stop: see text

We were about this close to calling it quits on CSCO and just 
letting it go.  While we have yet to be triggered on this 
potential short play the stock just continued to trade sideways.  
That was until Monday, April 1st when shares finally broke out 
through the top of its recent trading channel between $16.00 and 
$17.15.  The stock even managed to close over its 50-dma and was 
poised for a breakout above its 200-dma, the real clincher on our 
bearish outlook.  Now it appears to have been nothing but a 
possible bull trap.  The stock lost 6.3% as a number of negative 
comments from large brokers hit the tech sector today.  The NWX.X 
networking sector looks like it has rolled over at the 250 level 
and is liable to retest the 232 support level where it has 
bounced four times since late February.  If shares of CSCO do 
break down and trade through our trigger at $15.90 then its MACD 
is poised perfectly to roll over right at the zero line.  You may 
have heard that Quest (Q) was hit hard today because they might 
have to take a SEC-inspired $30 billion write down for goodwill 
from previous acquisitions.  If the SEC is going to get tough on 
accounting for acquisitions they're probably already looking at 
CSCO who's been a huge aggregator of smaller companies over the 
years.  This could be bad news for the networking giant but only 
time will tell if they can escape the asset writedown whiplash.  
A quick glance at CSCO's PnF chart shows that the upside breakout 
last night merely allowed the stock to test its overhead 
resistance between $17.50 and $18.00.  If we do get triggered we 
might be tempted to adjust our profit target but for the moment 
we're still looking for a move to $14.25.

Picked on March xth at $xx.xx <- See text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        05/07/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Convergys - CVG - close: 28.55 change: -0.35 stop: 30.51

So far so good.  CVG confirmed the downside breakdown from 
Thursday with a sharp drop on Monday morning.  This triggered our 
move into the play as shares dropped through $28.99.  However, 
the tech sector was on fire Monday and CVG bounced back from its 
lows but hit a wall at the $29.00 level and began to sag right 
before the closing bell.  Monday's decline came on very strong 
volume of 2.6 million shares versus the average of just 875K.  
Today's tech weakness did not give CVG much chance to bounce but 
the stock did find support again near the $28.30 level.  Now that 
we are hypothetically in the play, we are going to target a quick 
exit above the $25.00 mark.  If shares trade to $25.51 we'll 
cover and exit for a $3.48 move or 12%.  More aggressive players 
can gamble on a move to $25.00 or potentially $24.00.  

Picked on April 1st at $28.99 
Change since picked:    +0.44
Earnings Date        01/24/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Internet Security - ISSX - cls: 21.81 chg: -0.09 stop: 24.06 *new*

The bearish trend is still strong but shares of ISSX seemed 
rather resilient in the face of broader tech stock weakness on 
Tuesday.  Shares gapped lower to $21.09 and traded to $20.65 
before rebounding to close for a small loss of 9 cents.  One 
might have suspected that the negative comments on MSFT, the 
earnings warning by PSFT, and the questions over accounting 
issues with CHKP would have cast more of a pall over shares of 
ISSX.  We've always suspected the $20 level to be potential 
support but traders need to be careful that the bulls don't 
launch a rally when you're not looking.  We're going to lower our 
stop to reduce our current exposure.  The new stop will be 
$24.06, which is just above last Wednesday's highs.  The MACD is 
still growing strong for the bears but we'd confirm the stock and 
sector direction if you were looking for new positions.  

Picked on March 26th at $22.58 
Gain since picked:       +0.77
Earnings Date         04/16/02 (unconfirmed)
 





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  -----------
  Closed Short
  ------------


NVIDIA Corp - NVDA - close: 42.49 change: -1.14 stop: 44.01

Six measly cents!  That's how close NVDA came to reaching our 
profit target at $40.50 yesterday.  The stock had slumped after 
an article in Barron's over the weekend that claimed NVDA was in 
danger of losing market share to INTC.  We lowered our stop last 
night after the stock managed a decent rally from yesterday's 
lows.  Another reason we were getting itchy to take profits is 
that the stock had reached its bearish vertical count and 61% 
retracement at $42.  The strong bounce from yesterday continued 
this morning and violated our stop at $44.01.  Although we 
would've loved to be stopped out at our profit target, we're 
certainly not going to complain about a 9.4% gain.  The 
continuing SEC investigation could continue to weigh on the 
stock.  Traders still interested in shorting NVDA might consider 
today's failed rally at $45 as another opportunity.  We would be 
looking for a move to $40 in no time if this trend keeps up.  
Stochastics are obviously oversold.  

Picked on March 22nd at $48.57 
Gain since picked:       +4.56
Earnings Date         05/15/02 (unconfirmed)





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

===============
AT New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bearish Play
  ----------------


Teva Pharmaceutical - TEVA - cls: 51.90 chg: -1.09 stop: 54.18

Company Description:
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., headquartered in Israel, is 
among the top 40 pharmaceutical companies and among the largest 
generic pharmaceutical companies in the world. Over 80% of Teva's 
sales are in North America and Europe. The company develops, 
manufactures and markets generic and branded human 
pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients (source: 
company press release)

Why We Like It:
The DRG.X drug index has been looking weak ever since negative 
news from BMY tanked the sector on March 20th.  While the index 
has found support at 375, shareholders of TEVA have had no such 
luck.  The stock has seen a precipitous decline since failing to 
move over resistance at $58.  On Monday shares gapped below 
support at $53.50 as nervous investors dumped this Israeli-based 
company.  Technically speaking, TEVA looks very weak.  The p-n-f 
chart is showing a fresh double-bottom breakdown and the MACD 
just gave a bearish crossover on Monday.  Volume has also been 
steadily increasing over the last few days.  Now that shares have 
fallen below the September lows, we think the bearish vertical 
count at $42 could be within reach.  Entries can be considered on 
continued weakness from current levels.  More cautious traders 
may want to first wait for support at 375 to fail on the DRG.X, 
although TEVA may head lower with or without a weak sector.  
We're starting this play with a stop at $54.19, just above 
Monday's high.  

Picked on April 2nd at $51.90 
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        02/14/02 (confirmed)
 





===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cardinal Health - CAH - close: 71.47 change: -0.36 stop: 67.49

Tenet HealthCare (THC) announced earnings today.  We were hoping 
that solid numbers combined with a positive reaction from Wall 
Street would help to push CAH above resistance at $72.  THC came 
though and beat estimates by four cents.  Although both THC and 
the HMO.X health provider index traded higher on the news, CAH 
never even attempted to break over $72 and finished with a 0.50% 
loss.  We would've been concerned if shares had sold off sharply, 
but we think today's loss is indicative of bears defending 
resistance rather than relative weakness versus the sector.  The 
strategy for new entries remains unchanged:  Consider going long 
if CAH closes over $72 or bounces from $70.  More aggressive 
traders may want to jump on if the stock trades above $72 
intraday.  The HMO.X posted another all-time high at 518 today.  
This is obviously positive for our play, but we think the index 
may pause near 520.

Picked on March 22nd at $70.05
Gain since picked:       +1.42
Earnings Date         04/23/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Dole Food CO. - DOL - close: 30.80 change: -0.08 stop: 28.99

DOL has been in a decent uptrend recently, and we were hoping 
that the stock would make a run at recent highs near $31.50.  
With two negative days on the Dow, shares haven't been able to 
attempt a breakout over the past two sessions.  Although we'd 
been looking for DOL to stay over the $31 level, we're encouraged 
by the declining volume over the past few days of consolidation.  
Look for entries if DOL trades over the near-term high of $31.46.  
More conservative traders can wait for a close above $31.50.  
Shares are currently trading near the bottom of its ascending 
channel so we would expect a break up or down soon.

Picked on March 1st at $30.94
Gain since picked:      -0.14
Earnings Date        01/31/02 (confirmed)




---

Hanover Compressor - HC - close: 19.11 change: +0.90 stop: 16.74
 
Not a bad start!  We were triggered on HC yesterday after an 
intraday move above $18.26.  Today the stock added nearly 5% and 
closed above $19.  Not only did this set a near-term high, but a 
triple-top buy signal was also created with the move over $18.50.  
Today's strength might be attributed to a similar rise in natural 
gas futures (ng02k), which have added almost 10% this week.  
Aggressive traders who are still looking for an entry may want to 
buy at current levels, while conservative traders could wait for 
a pullback to anywhere between $18.50-$19.00.  Our initial profit 
target is $20-$21, but we'll evaluate our exit strategy as HC 
approaches that level.

Picked on April 1st at $18.26 
Gain since picked:      +0.85
Earnings Date        03/28/02 (confirmed)




---

Kohls - KSS - close: 69.10 change: -1.32 stop: 66.75

You can thank Merrill Lynch for that sharp decline in the RLX.X 
retail index.  The firm came out with a report on Monday morning 
that questioned whether the sector could continue to outperform 
the market.  Several retail companies were downgraded as well.  
KSS wasn't specifically implicated in the report, but two of its 
competitors (DSS and MAY) were downgraded.  The stock actually 
held up surprisingly well yesterday considering the sector 
negativity.  Unfortunately the selling spilled over to today's 
session and shares lost another 1.87% to close well under 
resistance/support at $70.  The RLX had been consolidating over 
950 but that level has been left in the dust after the 
downgrades.  We'd look for the selling in the sector to abate 
near 918, which is the location of both historical support and 
the 100-dma on the RLX.X.  Traders may want to consider buying a 
dip to $68 in KSS, which coincides with both the 50-day and 100-
dma's.  Conservative traders could minimize their risk with a 
stop just under this level.  Entries could also be considered on 
moves over $70 or $72.  

Picked on March 15th at $70.50
Gain since picked:       -1.40
Earnings Date         03/05/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Oxford Health - OHP - close: 41.51 change: -0.11 stop: 39.90

The HMO.X health provider index set yet another all-time high 
today, fueled by positive earnings from Tenet HealthCare (THC).  
It stands to reason that OHP would also be headed higher, but it 
seems that the stock has run into solid resistance at $42.  This 
level turned back two intraday rally attempts late last week and 
has continued to pressure the stock despite the strong sector.    
The PI newsletter is currently up 7.7% on this play and traders 
who entered at $38.55 may want to consider taking profits now.  
However, as long as the sector remains strong we think OHP should 
be able to crack resistance.  Bullish positions can be evaluated 
if OHP closes above $42 or trades above its all-time high at 
$42.75.  Dips to $40 aren't a bad place to consider positions 
either but watch those stops!

Picked on March 8th at $38.55
Gain since picked       +2.96
Earnings Date        02/05/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Payless Shoesource - PSS - close: 60.00 change: +0.25 stop: 58.75

Retailers started off the week on the wrong foot after Merrill 
Lynch cut ratings on several retail stocks.  The RLX.X retail 
index gave up nearly 2% after downgrades on sector giants WMT and 
TGT, as well as PSUN, ROSS, RL, DSS, and MAY, to name a few.  PSS 
followed the group lower and dropped 2.1% on strong volume of 
373K versus the 152K average.  Today's trading was much more 
encouraging.  Despite another negative day on the RLX, PSS 
recouped some of yesterday's losses and closed at $60.  This is 
the sort of relative strength we'll need to see if PSS is going 
to make a run at its recent high of $61.33.  We would be very 
cautious on new entries and probably take a stop back.  Shoe 
giant Nike (NKE) is sinking fast after breaking down under its 
50-dma.  If NKE can stabilize soon it might give bulls in PSS a 
chance to do something.

Picked on March 15th at $61.74
Gain since picked:       -1.74
Earnings Date         02/22/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  -----------
  Closed Long
  ------------

H&R Block Inc - HRB - close: 42.85 change: -0.22 stop: 42.75

The bears sure didn't waste any time jumping on yesterday's break 
of the 100-dma.  This level had acted as support over the past 
two weeks and defined the lower end of a tight range.  We were 
looking for HRB to break over $45, but the stock was never able 
to close over its 10-dma, which has acted as resistance for 
almost a month.  Yesterday the 100-dma gave way but HRB still 
managed to stay above our stop at $42.75.  Shares dropped below 
that level today, stopping us out with a 5.5% loss.  Support may 
show up near the January lows of $41.40, but the stock is 
downtrending and we wouldn't recommend going long at this time.  
After the market today HRB reaffirmed guidance and was trading 
slightly higher in after-hours.  Optimistic bulls may want to 
wait and see if HRB drifts to $40 and then look for support near 
its 200-dma.

Picked on March 22nd at $45.23
Change since picked:     -2.48
Earnings Date         05/29/02 (unconfirmed)






==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Hartford Financial Svc - HIG - cls: 68.36 chg: +0.31 stop: 64.45

Despite two consecutive negative days on the Dow, HIG has broken 
over near-term resistance at $68.  Shares bounced near $67 on 
Monday morning and proceeded to steadily climb higher before 
succumbing to some profit-taking this afternoon.  The MACD just 
gave a bullish crossover and HIG is now within striking distance 
of the near-term high of $69.45.  However, due to the overhead 
psychological and historical resistance ($70 and $71, 
respectively) we would wait for shares to actually close over $70 
or maybe a dip to $68.  If HIG can finally break $70 we can see 
out reaching our initial profit target near $72.50 but then we 
might be tempted to bump that to $75.00.  In the mean time we're 
going to snug up our stop on the play to $65.74, which is just 
under the 50-dma and our entry point.


Picked on March 13th at $65.74
Change since picked:     +2.62
Earnings Date         01/28/02 (confirmed)
 





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 37.27 change: -2.07 stop: 40.41

QCOM managed a decent rally yesterday, but wasn't able to touch 
previous support at $40.  Monday's move was in part due to a 
bounce in the sector.  The IXTCX combined telecom index bounced 
off the 170 level but it now looks like it was only an oversold 
bounce.  Monday's performance by QCOM created a bullish 
candlestick but it appears it was nothing more than the first 
part of a failed rally.  The overhead resistance at $40 coincides 
with the 50-dma and it's going to take a real effort on the part 
of the bulls to push shares above it.  Today's loss for QCOM was 
just over 5% and while volume was moderate the MACD continues to 
roll over.  If the NASDAQ breaks support at 1800, QCOM could 
quickly drop to the $35 level.  Traders looking for an entry 
could target either another failed rally to $40 or a move under 
the $37 level.  Look for a break below support at 170 in the 
IXTCX to confirm sector weakness.  We are still targeting the $33 
area.

Picked on March 25th at $39.47
Change since picked:     +2.20
Earnings Date         04/24/02 (unconfirmed)






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change  

TOT     Total Fina Elf             78.44     +0.71
CI      Cigna Corp                104.54     +2.51
BR      Burlington Resources       41.68     +0.66
TLM     Talisman Energy Inc        42.93     +0.57
PMI     The PMI Group Inc          77.80     +1.37

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

MEE     Massey Energy Co           18.39     +1.17
RML     Russell Corp               16.79     +2.07
STEC    Simple Technology Inc       9.57     +1.01
IMCO    Impco Technologies Inc     14.29     +1.14
MEDC    Med-Design Co              15.00     +1.01

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BLDP    Ballard Power Systems Inc  33.26     +2.26
PDS     Precision Drilling Corp    34.54     +1.25
ACI     Arch Coal Inc              24.40     +1.85
EVG     Evergreen Resources Inc    43.50     +1.25

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BMY     Bristol-Myers Squibb       38.24     -2.16
SAP     SAP Ag                     35.65     -2.65
PSFT    PeopleSoft Inc             25.16     -12.21
TEVA    Teva Pharmaceuticals       51.90     -1.09
CVC     Cablevision Systems        30.25     -2.55

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BBY     Best Buy Co Inc            75.01     -4.47
DGX     Quest Diagnostics          79.44     -3.35
HYSL    Hyperion Solutions         25.32     -1.33



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