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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 04/03/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter              Wednesday 04-03-2002
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Warnings and surprises.
Watch List:       HD, IGT, MU, NOK and more!
Play of the Day:  Rising Sun, Rising Stock. (bullish)


************************************************************
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
************************************************************      
      04-03-2002          High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10198.29 -115.42 10339.86 10139.48 1.21 bln   1161/1984
NASDAQ   1784.35 - 20.05  1813.36  1770.61 1.55 bln   1361/2117
S&P 100   566.03 -  5.45   573.00   562.67   Totals   2522/4101
S&P 500  1125.40 - 11.36  1138.85  1119.68
RUS 2000  496.60 -  3.89   501.53   495.87
DJ TRANS 2747.31 - 42.88  2795.30  2736.02
VIX        21.59 +  0.91    22.13    21.01
VXN        41.10 +  1.78    41.39    39.86
TRIN        2.07
Put/Call    0.64
************************************************************

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Warnings and surprises

You can tell its quarter earnings season as the news wires are 
starting to light up with pre-announcements on quarterly 
corporate earnings.  Nobody wants to dump an earnings surprise on 
the market (up or down) and risk penalty of prosecution by 
unforgiving shareholders after the recent Enron debacle.

It's not just company executives that are issuing some alerts to 
the market if numbers aren't lining up with consensus.  Analysts 
seem to be active with upgrades and downgrades in the sectors 
they cover.  Though Arthur Andersen is an accounting firm, plenty 
of scrutiny has been cast among analysts that have turned the 
other cheek and issued a blanket "buy" ratings on stocks and have 
been complacent with their earning's forecast.  Now we seem to be 
getting more "cautious" outlooks toward various sectors where 
other downside warnings are found.

Software stocks as depicted by the GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 
fell another 2.2% today after yesterday's drubbing when 
PeopleSoft (PSFT) $24.76 -1.58% warned that revenues, due a 
shortfall in licensing revenues, would have the company missing 
the Street's estimates.

Bringing on today's software declines was research firm First 
Analysis downgrading shares of Siebel Systems (NASDAQ:SEBL) 
$29.00 -8.86% to "neutral" form "accumulate."  The firm cited 
continued weak technology spending environment and valuation.  
First Analysis lowered their quarterly earnings estimates to 
$0.12 a share, which is now right inline with consensus at $0.12.

Siebel Systems Chart - Daily Interval




Action in Siebel (SEBL) looks to have been a "sell now" and ask 
questions later.  A break much below the $27.50 level looks to 
have the stock vulnerable to the $20.50 level.  I'd be rather 
cautious with a short in shares of Siebel and wait for a break 
below the $27.59 level.  While the software sector bulls are just 
edgy enough to sell any type of "bad news" one has to wonder just 
how bad today's downgrade was by First Analysis.  After all, it 
looks like their estimates were above the Street's estimates.  
Any shorts established on the break at $27.58 would follow with a 
tight stop at $28.60 (just above retracement) or above 50% 
retracement and the rolling 50-day MA near $33.60.  Near-term 
target for a bearish trade would be near the 19.1% retracement 
level of $20.40.

A mind of its own

Analysts weren't entirely negative today, but one has to wonder 
if anyone listens anymore.  Prudential got bullish on the 
semiconductor equipment stocks raising their bullish price 
targets on their "buy-rated" favorites.  Those chosen few and 
raised targets were; AMAT to $70 from $59, KLAC to $87 from $70, 
KLIC to $27 from $25, LRCX to $37 from $32, NVLS to $67 from $55, 
RTEC to $53 from $47, and TER to $48 from $41.

Those on the list saw their prices decline today as the 
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) fell 2.2% to 574.  Applied Materials 
(AMAT) $53.19 -1.55%, KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $64.60 -1.6%, Kulicke and 
Soffa (KLIC) $19.85 -3.17%, Lam Research (LRCX) $28.00 -3.34%, 
Novellus (NVLS) $50.25 -3.45%, Rudolph Technologies $39.79 -2.97% 
and Teradyne (TER) $37.55 -1.85% all saw their stock prices pull 
back a bit.

Last week we highlighted shares of Novellus (NVLS) in our bullish 
play list, but set the play up with a bullish trigger that has 
yet to be hit.  I'd love to see NVLS pull back near the $46 level 
and get a "reduced downside risk" trade entry point.  The semi-
conductor equipment stocks have all traded strong.  They traded 
strong into the end of the year last year, but a short-term spent 
of weakness looks to have been the "buying opportunity."  With 
the NASDAQ looking a little spooked right now, we might just get 
another chance for a pullback in shares of NVLS.  If not, we've 
got a trigger to the upside to play any momentum.

Novellus Systems Chart - Daily Interval




Despite some bullish comments from Prudential and the raising of 
a bullish price target to $67, shares of NVLS traded lower.  
Interesting that the stock seems to have found a ceiling near 
$55.  What "frustrates" me about some of these analysts is this.  
If your stinking price target was $55 to begin with (say at $38) 
do you expect me to now sit on the stock near $55 when your 
original price target is achieved?  Or do I let you lead me along 
with the proverbial "carrot" thinking I'm a horse and now wait 
for $67?  What happens "if" I get to $67, do I wait for $90?  I 
think there's some profit taking happening in Novellus (NVLS) and 
thank goodness we set a more disciplined trigger on this bullish 
play that wasn't triggered.

Dell Reaffirms guidance, while Western Digital guides higher

Dell Computer (NASDAQ:DELL) $26.56 -0.03% showed good relative 
strength against broader tech weakness and tonight after the 
close of trading, Dell reaffirmed guidance for Q1 for earnings of 
$0.16 a share and says that revenues may be down only 2% to $7.9 
billion (Dell had previously forecasted revenues down 3.5%).  The 
EPS guidance is in line with consensus and revenue guidance is 
better than estimates of $7.7 billion.  The stock edged up 34-
cents to $26.90 in after-hours trading.

While Dell's reaffirmed guidance is soothing to some bulls in the 
computer space, perhaps more bullish for the space is disk drive 
maker Western Digital (NYSE:WDC) $6.00 +0.16% issuing an upside 
pre-announcement for Q3.  WDC says it sees earnings per share of 
$0.08 versus current consensus of $0.04 a share.  The company 
also said it sees revenues of $590 million for the quarter versus 
consensus estimates of $562.5 million.  Shares of WDC gained 
$0.86 (+14% from close) to $6.86 in late trading.

As far as I'm concerned, disk drives are to computers as oil is 
to an engine.  It's hard to run one without the other.

Western Digital Corporation Chart - 




I wouldn't throw a full position into a bullish trade for Western 
Digital (WDC) tomorrow, but you've got to be impressed with this 
stocks ability to put in such a long column of X's from $2.25 to 
$7.50 before a 3-box reversal finally took place.  That's some 
committed buying.  Does somebody know something that we don't 
know about the future for this disk drive maker?  If you were 
trading like I was back in 1996-1998 you'll remember that bulls 
couldn't get enough of this stock despite a rise from the $10 
level to an all-time high of $54.75!  

Some will giggle and some will laugh, but you just never know.  
I'm not laughing at a recently profiled bearish play in fellow 
storage stock Storage Technology (STK) $22.44 +2.93%.

Storage Technology Chart - Daily Interval




Storage Technology's (NYSE:STK) $22.44 +2.93% point/figure chart 
shows some similarities to what we see in the p/f chart of WDC.  
A loooong column of X that depicts committed buying.  What's up 
with that?  

Is it a top and now we're going to just see a longer-term 
distribution in these two storage device manufacturers?  Or is 
something bullish taking place on a longer-term basis?  One can 
perhaps think of all those company's out there that have been 
putting off computer upgrades for many employees as the purse 
strings have been tightened.  Some analysts say that the PC 
sector will be the first area of technology to see spending 
increases as many systems haven't been updated in over 18-months.  
Heck, you can't buy a computer today that doesn't run faster or 
process more information faster 6 months from now.  

I'd be more willing to ease into a bullish position in WDC than I 
would in STK.  If I simply measure risk to a "sell signal" and 
assess that risk against a longer-term bullish count, then a 
bullish trade in WDC from $7.00 has me risking $2.10 with 
potential reward of $18.75.

Now, a $2.10 risk on a $7 stock is a whopping 30% risk of 
capital.  There's no way a good trader or investor would risk a 
FULL position on such a trade.  However, by scaling back to 1/2 
position, the risk to the account gets cut in half to 15%.  A 1/4 
position to begin with has risk cut further to 7.5%.  

This is how institutions trade and perhaps a very good lesson to 
investors and other traders in risk management.

What did we say about institutions last night.  Justin Mamis 
said, "Institutions tend to dump stock in a single transaction 
and buy, if possible, in smaller lots, gradually accumulating a 
position."

Good advice if looking to leg into the more volatile technology 
stocks that exhibit some longer-term bullishness!

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician
PremierInvestor.net


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have 
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background 
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's 
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Home Depot - HD - close: 46.95 change: -0.56

WHAT TO WATCH: Is HD in the early stages of a breakdown?  By the 
looks of today's trading action, it sure seems that way.  The 
stock lost 1.17% and closed under support at $47.  HD has 
followed the RLX.X retail index lower this week, and if the index 
breaks support at 918 it may not find support until 900.  The 
recent downtrend in shares of HD has also mirrored similar moves 
in homebuilding stocks, reflecting the growing consensus on Wall 
Street that the new home market may have topped out.  Entries can 
be considered on a move below the 200-dma at $46.69 or a closed 
under today's low of $46.  Some traders may want to wait and see 
if the $45 level will act as support or not.
  



---

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 58.13 change: -3.02

WHAT TO WATCH: IGT had spent most of the past month trading in a 
range between $60-$63.  That all changed today, when the stock 
gapped sharply lower after a downgrade from Merrill Lynch.  In 
addition to cutting its rating, the brokerage also reduced IGT's 
12-month price target to $68 from $80.  Shares traded higher 
after opening at $56.35 but were unable to close over the 200-dma 
at $58.37.  The selling came on very high volume of 4M (the 
average is 1.1M) and also triggered a double-bottom selling 
signal on the p-n-f chart.  Daily stochastics are looking bearish 
as well.  It is possible that low-risk entries can be considered 
on renewed weakness at current levels with a stop just above the 
200-dma.  However, we suspect that IGT may be able to trade back 
to the $60 level and then rollover.  We'll consider short 
positions if this failed rally occurs.




---

Micron Technology - MU - close: 30.78 change: -1.62

WHAT TO WATCH: Unlike some of its semiconductor brethren, MU has 
shown no signs of positive momentum in recent weeks.  Now that 
the SOX.X is headed back down, bears have enthusiastically piled 
on.  Today's 5% decline can be attributed to Morgan Stanley, who 
downgraded MU to underweight based on their opinion that the 
stock will continue to be under pressure.  Interestingly, 
Prudential just raised price targets on several chips based on 
their forecast of double-digit order growth.  Regardless of what 
the dueling analysts say, MU is looking very weak form a 
technical standpoint.  Shares broke below near-term support at 
$32, which was supported by the 100-day and 200-day MA's.  MU has 
also broken its ascending support on the p-n-f chart.  Although 
this is bearish, we'd like to see some further downside 
confirmation.  Some stocks have a way of sucking in shorts on the 
very first break of the PnF bullish support and then shooting 
higher.  Traders can consider entries on a failed rally to $32 or 
a break below $30, but keep those stops tight to avoid getting 
caught in a bull trap.  We'll probably jump on the bears' 
bandwagon if MU loses the $30 level.




---

Nokia Corp - NOK - close: 20.21 change: +0.23

WHAT TO WATCH: The IXTCX combined telecom index has been steadily 
declining over the past three weeks and we think a retest of 
support at 160 is in the cards.  Whether the index actually 
bounces from this level may depend on the strength of the NASDAQ, 
which just broke its own support at 1800.  Much like QCOM 
(currently on our Play List), NOK is threatening to violate its 
near-term lows.  The stock is currently resting just above 
bullish p-n-f support at $20.  Traders could think about going 
short on a move below today's low of $19.96.  An alternate 
strategy would be to target a failed rally to the 200-dma at $21.  
This moving average has acted as resistance since the stock 
gapped below it on March 20th.






=============
MORE TO WATCH
=============

AEOS - This retailer has gotten slaughtered over the past week
       and broke support at $22 today.  Shares have broken below
       bullish support on the p-n-f chart.  We wouldn't be      
       surprised to see AEOS drop to $20 or even retest the Sept.
       lows near $17.00.

LAB  - Shares dropped below the 200-dma today and closed just
       above the January low.  Volume was high and the p-n-f is 
       showing a fresh double-bottom alert.  Entries could be 
       considered if LAB drops below today's low of $28.51. 

CVC  - We considered adding CVC as a short on Tuesday and with
       4.6% drop today, we're sad we didn't.  More importantly,
       the move below $30.00 today looks like a terrible 
       development for the bulls.  There is absolutely no support
       on the PnF chart so who knows where the bottom is.  We
       would look for a move to $25.00 soon.



===============
Play-of-the-Day  (bullish)
===============

Sony Corp (ADR) - SNE - close: 52.46 change: +1.31 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Sony is a leading manufacturer of audio, video, communications 
and information technology products for the consumer and 
professional markets. Its music, motion picture, television, 
computer entertainment, and online businesses make Sony one of 
the most comprehensive entertainment companies in the world. 
(source: company website)

Why We Like It:
We've had our eye on SNE for almost a month.  The ADR first 
attracted our attention in early March, as shares shot over 
resistance at $50.  The move reflected similar buying enthusiasm 
on the Nikkei index, which was based on a positive economic 
forecast for Japan.  Although we were hesitant to chase the 
breakout, we believe now is the time to go long.  The stock 
successfully retested support at $50 and has been distancing 
itself from that level on increasing volume.  On the same token, 
the Nikkei has pulled back to 11,000 and has thus far maintained 
that level.  The oscillators indicate that a return to $55-$57 
might be in store but our target is the $60 level or higher. 
Daily stochastics are heading higher, and the MACD histogram is 
offering a hint of bullish divergence.  In order to confirm 
bullish conviction we're going to initiate this play with a 
trigger about a quarter above today's high.  If SNE trades at or 
above $53.01 we'll go long with a stop at $47.99.  The stock will 
need to break both the 200-day and 50-day MA's before we stopped 
out.  More conservative traders who prefer to reduce their risk 
could try and place their stop under the $50.00 mark, which has 
been tested as support for the past week.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (unconfirmed)
 





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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
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only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
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of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
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Copyright  2001  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 04-03-2002
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/d03b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

NetBulls Tech Stocks
  Stop Adjustments:    CHKP
  Triggered Bearish:   RETK
  New Bullish Play:    SNE
  
Active Trader Non-Tech Stocks
  Stop Adjustments:    HC
  New Long-term Play:  HC
  Long-term Updates:   PETM, SPLS
  Closed Bullish Play: KSS

High Risk/Reward Plays
  Stop Adjustments:    HIG


Split Trader Stock Splits
  Split Announcement:  PFCB: 2-for-1 split announcement


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Net Bulls - Tech Stocks (NB) section
==================================================================

NB Bearish Play Stop Adjustments
--------------------------------

Check Point - CHKP - cls: 27.46 chg: -0.55 stop: $28.46 *new*

This is it!  We have achieved our original objective of hitting 
the $27.50 level for CHKP.  Another ugly day for the GSO.X 
software index was good for a 2% loss in CHKP and shares closed 
at $27.46.  Short-term traders who have not yet taken profits 
should consider doing so now.  Although it remains weak, the 
stock seems to be firming up near $27 and the GSO.X has some 
support at current levels.  Despite the current support levels we 
don't see any reason for investors to buy CHKP so we're going to 
see if the bears can keep the rout going even though the stock is 
oversold.  We're going to tighten our stop tonight to protect 
recent gains.  Our new stop is at $28.46, just above today's 
high.  This should protect a gain of almost 14.5%.  The risk for 
bears now is that CHKP gaps up at the open.  The reward for 
hanging on to it is a breakdown under $27.00 which should lead to 
a test of the $25.00 level.
 





NB Triggered Short Play
-----------------------

Retek Inc. - RETK - close: 23.57 change: -1.71 stop: 26.41

Bulls were running scared after RETK broke below $25 today.  En 
route to the stock's 6.76% loss, shares dropped below our action 
point at $24.99.  Now that we've been triggered, we have an 
initial stop at $26.41.  Our profit-target is $20.49.  If the 
stock trades at or below that level we'll close this one out.





============
NB New Plays
============

  ----------------
  New Bullish Play
  ----------------

Sony Corp (ADR) - SNE - close: 52.46 change: +1.31 stop: *text*

Company Description:
Sony is a leading manufacturer of audio, video, communications 
and information technology products for the consumer and 
professional markets. Its music, motion picture, television, 
computer entertainment, and online businesses make Sony one of 
the most comprehensive entertainment companies in the world. 
(source: company website)

Why We Like It:
We've had our eye on SNE for almost a month.  The ADR first 
attracted our attention in early March, as shares shot over 
resistance at $50.  The move reflected similar buying enthusiasm 
on the Nikkei index, which was based on a positive economic 
forecast for Japan.  Although we were hesitant to chase the 
breakout, we believe now is the time to go long.  The stock 
successfully retested support at $50 and has been distancing 
itself from that level on increasing volume.  On the same token, 
the Nikkei has pulled back to 11,000 and has thus far maintained 
that level.  The oscillators indicate that a return to $55-$57 
might be in store but our target is the $60 level or higher. 
Daily stochastics are heading higher, and the MACD histogram is 
offering a hint of bullish divergence.  In order to confirm 
bullish conviction we're going to initiate this play with a 
trigger about a quarter above today's high.  If SNE trades at or 
above $53.01 we'll go long with a stop at $47.99.  The stock will 
need to break both the 200-day and 50-day MA's before we stopped 
out.  More conservative traders who prefer to reduce their risk 
could try and place their stop under the $50.00 mark, which has 
been tested as support for the past week.

Picked on April xth at $xx.xx <- see text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (unconfirmed)
 





=================================================================
Active Trader/Non-tech Stocks (AT) section
=================================================================

AT Bullish Play Stop Adjustments
--------------------------------

Hanford Compressor - HC - cls: 19.81 chg: +0.70 stop: 19.48*new*

You can't argue with an 8% gain in two days.  HC has shot higher 
despite the broader market negativity and looks to be headed for 
a test of resistance at $20.  We'd love to see a move over this 
level but at this point short-term traders may strongly want to 
consider locking in profits.  We're inching our stop up to 
$19.48, which should protect a gain of over 6%.  We think HC has 
much more upside potential in the long-term, and we plan to add 
it as a long-term play on a pull back.  Check tonight's 
newsletter for further details.






=====================
AT New Long-Term Play
=====================

  --------------------------
  New Bullish Long-Term Pick
  --------------------------

Hanover Compressor - HC - close: 19.81 change: +0.70 stop: see text

Company Description
Hanover Compressor Company is the global market leader in full 
service natural gas compression and a leading provider of 
service, financing, fabrication and equipment for contract 
natural gas handling applications. Hanover provides this 
equipment on a rental, contract compression, maintenance and 
acquisition leaseback basis to natural gas production, processing 
and transportation companies that are increasingly seeking 
outsourcing solutions. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Attentive readers know that we recently added HC as a short-term 
play this week.  We were triggered on the positive rally this 
Tuesday and we're already up about 8% in the move.  Shares closed 
just under historical and psychological resistance of $20, which 
also happens to have the 100-dma just overhead.  What readers 
don't know is that the research team in the office debated over 
whether to originally add HC as a short-term play or a long-term 
play.  We opted for the short-term based on the trend in the 
natural gas futures (ng02j).  As we discussed our current short-
term strategy tonight (04/03/02) the argument went round and 
round about how do we cover HC for both active short-term traders 
versus more patient longer-term traders.  The compromise was a 
new tighter stop to protect some gains for the short-term guys 
while we offer HC as a new long-term candidate tonight with a 
lower price level as our trigger to go long.  Jeff voiced some of 
his comments and observations about HC in a recent wrap and you 
can check them out here (we would encourage you to check out his 
two charts on HC):
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/markets/marketwrap/032802_1.asp

We do feel positive that HC could make a great longer-term hold 
and based off the point-and-figure and daily chart analysis our 
upside price target for the next three to six months is between 
$30 and $35.  Investors will probably want to make note of 
several hurdles the bulls will have to overcome on the way up but 
once conquered they will probably become levels of support.  
First and foremost is the immediate resistance at the $20 level 
and the 100-dma at $20.40.  This happens to coincide closely with 
the point-and-figure chart bearish resistance between $20.50 and 
$21.00.  More patient investors may want to actually wait for 
shares of HC to close above the $21 level before considering 
positions.  The good news is that the recent rallies accompanied 
by rising volume is a good sign that investor interest may be 
able to overcome this first hurdle.  Other hurdles that HC is 
likely to encounter on the way up are the $25.00 to $28.00 level, 
which saw a lot of congestion back in Nov/Dec of 2001.  In 
addition the 200-dma is currently near $25.00 but this is likely 
to drop lower as HC rises up to meet it.  Beyond this is the 
$30.00 level, which will also act as overhead resistance but 
psychological and historical (look to Oct/Nov 2001).  

A lot of the discussion in the office was how to play the entry 
point for a long-term position in HC.  The month-long top between 
$18.00 and $18.25 that the stock has recently broken should now 
become support for the share price.  I suspect that the breakout 
from $18.00 to $20.00 is now due for a pull back and it is very 
common for stocks to retest the breakout level as new support.  
So my preferred entry price would be between $18.00 and $18.25.  
However, there are others on the Premier research team that feel 
HC may "get away" from investors before ever pulling back that 
low again.  Therefore, we have compromised, which is probably a 
good idea since the more opinions we can discuss will help bring 
a consensus on a viable strategy.  While I would look for at 
least a pull back to the $18.50 area the newsletter's official 
position will be to consider any move back to the $18.01 to 
$18.99 area as our entry.  Thus the most likely entry price will 
be $18.99 as the stock dips intraday but we will allow for a 
possible gap down (just not too low of a gap down).  With our 
long-term perspective and exit strategy we're going to initiate 
the play with a stop at $15.99 once we are triggered since the 
$16.00 level should be a secondary level of support.  

Picked on April Xth at $xx.xx <-- see trigger
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date         June/02 (not confirmed)






Non-Tech Long-Term Updates
==========================

Editor's Note!  
--------------

Now that we have added the Long-term plays to the PremierInvestor.net
website play list, we will begin to routinely provide updates once
a week in the weekend newsletter.  However, you can check the play
section of the newsletter or the play profiles themselves for any
new comments or stop adjustments that may occur throughout the week.

--------------


PETsMART - PETM - close: 13.87 change: +0.23 stop: 12.99 *new*

Our play in PETM may have gotten off to a slow start back in 
January but shares roared higher in March and quickly traded 
above our initial price target of $12.00.  After the technical 
breakout, shares saw some profit taking but managed to build a 
new base of support at the $12 level.  Since then shares 
consolidated sideways along the $13.00 mark for a couple of weeks 
and now appear to be starting another leg up.  The point-and-
figure chart is absolutely vertical and nothing goes up in a 
straight line forever.  Therefore we are moving our stop from its 
recent adjustment of $12.38 to our new stop at $12.99.  The April 
trend of higher lows make it look like PETM is itching for a 
breakout above $14.00.  We're certainly not going to complain 
with the broader market in a funk.  If you have not taken profits 
yet, you may want to consider doing so - at least on half your 
position.  We're going to let the stock run and see just how far 
it will go.  In the meantime the stop at $12.99 should protect a 
move of 25%.  Currently, Premier is up about 34% in the play.  
The next earnings report for PETM is not expected until June.

Picked on January 25th at $10.32
Gain since picked:         +3.55
Earnings Date            June/02 (not confirmed)





---

Staples, Inc - SPLS - cls: 19.70 chg: +0.36 stop: 18.44 *new*

It's been a rocky road for SPLS these last couple of months and 
despite the lack of inspiring performance we're still optimistic.  
After adding SPLS as a long-term pick in January, the stock took 
the first part of February as a chance to retest support near its 
200-dma, which at the time was near the $16.00 level.  
Fortunately, buyers stepped in to support it and shares quickly 
rebounded.  The end of February was much more encouraging but 
March has been a month of further consolidation.  In the mean 
time, SPLS' competitors have also been all over the map.  
Officemax (OMX) rally very strongly in early March after its 
earnings announcement.  OMX posted a wider Q4 loss but investors 
took heart with the upbeat outlook going forward.  Since then OMX 
has been consolidating most of its early March gains.  Rival 
Office Depot (ODP) rallied strongly on its earnings release in 
mid-February but since then has traded relatively sideways.  
While Ikon Office Solutions (IKN) was hammered in March when 
shares fell from $14.00 to almost $10.00 (with its 200-dma 
nearby) on what appeared to be concerns about the company's 
Chairman and CEO stepping down later this year.  SPLS was able to 
post a profit for the Q4 with stronger cost cutting measures and 
management claims they have positioned the company to grow its 
profit margins with or without an economic recovery in the 
states.  We have yet to see much of a reaction from Wall Street 
but the point-and-figure chart is still bullish with the stock 
currently working on a triple top breakout.  We see the recent 
consolidation on the daily chart as nothing to be concerned 
about.  The stock has been extremely strong when compared against 
the S&P 500.  Traders can probably feel comfortable as long as 
the share price remains above the $19.00 level.  In the meantime, 
we are going to cinch up our stop to breakeven at $18.44.  More 
conservative traders who feel the need may want to place theirs 
closer to the $19.00 level.  One might think that with all the 
positive economic reports out the last few weeks this whole 
industry would be posting stronger moves.  We suspect that larger 
investors are merely waiting to see what the Q2 earnings numbers 
look like and if any recovery has begun for corporate profits.  
SPLS is not expected to announce earnings until June.  Premier is 
currently up about 6.8% in the play.

Picked on January 4th at $18.44
Gain since picked:        +1.26
Earnings Date           June/02 (unconfirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  --------------
  Closed Bullish
  --------------

Kohls Corp - KSS - close: 67.27 change: -1.83 stop: 66.75

Before we begin, a rather large "mea culpa" is in order.  On 
March 22nd we raised our stop on this play to 67.45.  
Unfortunately, an error on the website led to the original stop 
at 66.75 being used in subsequent updates.  As you may be aware, 
we have a policy of never lowering stops.  We apologize to those 
who may have had that impression.  For the purposes of this 
play's results we'll assume a stop-loss of $66.75.
As it turned it, both stops were violated today.  KSS had come 
tantalizingly close to cracking resistance at $72.  However, 
despite repeated attempts to break though, the bulls only managed 
to push the stock two cents above that level.  Things began to 
get ugly on Monday when Merrill Lynch downgraded several retail 
stocks.  The double-whammy of sector weakness and overall market 
negativity was enough to hit the RLX.X retail index for three 
straight days of losses.  KSS had been holding above its 50-dma 
and 100-dma, but today's 2.64% decline.  Shares dropped as low as 
$66.75 intraday, which stopped us out for a $3.75 loss.  Although 
the retail sector looks oversold, we'd be very cautious in buying 
this dip.

Picked on March 15th at $70.50
Gain since picked:       -3.75
Earnings Date         03/05/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
High Risk / High Reward (HR) section
==================================================================

HR Bullish Play Stop Adjustments
--------------------------------

Hartford Financial - HIG - cls: 68.13 chg: -0.23 stop: 66.04*new*

HIG is trading sideways and could be coiling for a big move up or 
down.  To avoid getting caught in a breakdown we're moving our 
stop to $66.04, just under the 50-dma.  This should be sufficient 
to lock in a small gain if it turns against us.  






=================================================================
Split Trader Stock Splits (ST) section
=================================================================

Split Announcements
-------------------

P.F Chang's serves up 2-for-1 Stock Split

Word came today from the P.F. Chang's China Bistro (NASDAQ: PFCB) 
Annual Shareholders' Meeting that the board of directors had 
approved a 2-for-1 stock split.  The number of authorized shares 
of common stock will increase from 20 million to 40 million.

The split will come in the form of a 100% stock dividend and will 
be distributed on May 1, 2002 to stockholders of record on April 
17, 2002.

Like many other restaurant stocks, PFCB has risen sharply since 
bottoming out in September.  Shares have nearly doubled over that 
time period, which likely gave the board of directors a compelling 
reason to offer the first split since the company began trading in 
1998.

PFCB closed at $66.24 on Tuesday.  For a current quote,
click here:
http://user.financialcontent.com/pin1/quote.cgi?account=pin1&ticker=PFCB


About the company
P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc. owns and operates two restaurant 
concepts in the Asian niche. P.F. Chang's China Bistro features a 
blend of high-quality, traditional Chinese cuisine and American 
hospitality in a sophisticated, contemporary bistro setting. 
(source: company press release)




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change  

CI      Cigna Corp                105.15     +0.61
BSC     Bear Stearns Co            65.15     +2.41
RNR     Renaissance Holdings      103.75     +0.94
SPF     Standard Pacific Corp      29.59     +1.37
CTAC    1-800 Contacts Inc         12.21     +1.13

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

NTT     Nippon Telephone           19.44     +1.04

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

BSC     Bear Stearns Co            65.15     +2.41
IMDC    Inamed Corp                33.12     +1.42
JLL     Jones Lang Lasalle Inc     23.25     +1.15
SKX     Skechers USA Inc           21.64     +2.73
ALOG    Analogic Corp              45.31     +2.55

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

UNP     Union Pacific Corp         57.37     -1.58
SEBL    Siebel Systems             29.00     -2.82
MEL     Mellon Financial           37.35     -1.17
PH      Parker Hannifin Corp       46.70     -2.08
CVC     Cablevision Systems        28.85     -1.40
IGT     Intl. Game Technology      58.13     -3.02

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

RKY     Adolph Coors Co            64.19     -2.55
LTRE    Learning Tree Intl         22.00     -2.71



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