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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 04/04/2002

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                          04-04-2002
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In section one:

Market Wrap:      Bush's Comments Calms Markets and Sends Oil Lower
Play-of-the-Day:  Give Me Some Love
Market Sentiment: Tech Tells

------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Market Numbers
------------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
------------------------------------------------------------------
         4-4-2002           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA  10,235.17  + 36.88 10,261.88 10157.26 1.3 bln   1652/1361
NASDAQ   1789.73 +  5.38  1800.83  1770.16  1.7 bln   1761/1649
S&P 100   566.72 +  0.69   568.69   563.40   Totals   3413/3010
S&P 500  1126.34 +  0.94  1130.45  1120.06
RUS 2000  498.37 +  1.77   498.58   494.74
DJ TRANS 2783.62 + 36.31  2781.51  2741.81
VIX        21.77 +   .13    22.45    21.77
VXN        40.22 -  0.81    42.09    40.17
TRIN         .96
CBOE Put/Call Ratio: .83
------------------------------------------------------------------
WE= week ended

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Bush's comments calms markets and sends oil lower

Stocks recovered from this morning's lows as the major averages 
finished with fractional gains after President Bush called for a 
halt to incursions by Israeli troops into Palestinian-controlled 
areas.  To the Palestinians, bush reiterated his warning that 
nations that help terrorists will be treated the same as 
terrorists.

President Bush urged Yasser Arafat and his Arab neighbors to 
"join us in delivering a clear and unequivocal message to 
terrorists:  Blowing yourself up does not help the Palestinian 
cause.  To the contrary, suicide bombing missions could well blow 
up the best and only hope for Palestinian state."  President Bush 
went on to say, "as Israel steps back, Palestinian leaders and 
Israel's Arab neighbors have responsibility to step forward and 
show the world that they are truly on the side of peace."

President Bush was reported to have made at least two telephone 
calls Thursday morning to locations in the Middle-east, but 
officials did not disclose who Bush had called.

President Bush's comments seemed to provide some stability to 
stocks, with the greatest impact coming in the crude oil markets.  
May Light, Sweet Crude (cl02k) fell 98-cents (-3.5%) after an 
early morning surge higher to $28.35 to finish the day's trading 
at $26.58.  

May Crude Oil futures - Daily Interval



May Crude futures are the current delivery month and helps show 
that oil prices were rather volatile today.  It seems like every 
morning we're faced with some type of news about a bombing or 
military offensive taking place between Israeli forces and 
Palistinian's.  This has traders speculating on oil prices in the 
future's markets as uncertainty regarding potential Middle East 
export disruption builds.  

However, President Bush's comments were stern and directed 
equally at both the Israeli and Palestinian leadership, which 
seems to have some feeling that there may still be hope for some 
type of resolution.

We'll watch tomorrow's news programs to see if things calm down a 
bit.

Transports show some recovery

The calming words of President Bush had oil prices slipping lower 
on the session, and that helped the energy sensitive 
transportations stocks recover from recent declines.

The Airlines Index (XAL.X) lead today's sector gainers with a 
3.32% gain and helped the broader Dow Transportation Average 
(TRAN) gained 1.32%.

"4-bucks, 4-bucks, 4-bucks!"  Remember that pizza commercial from 
years ago that advertised pizza delivered to your door for $4.00?  
That's about the amount of risk a bull would be taking in the 
Airlines Index (XAL.X) as it sits right on upward trending 50-day 
moving average, upward trending support, and the old downward 
trend which is also acting like support.  The bearish impediment 
technically is the still falling 200-day moving average.

Airlines Index Chart - Daily Interval



The airline's sector as a whole looks to be at an attractive 
bullish entry point for a bullish trader that prefers to buy 
stocks in an upward trend on a pullback.  Risk is easily assessed 
to just below yesterday's low of $96.  If that's broken, then the 
upward trend will have been broken.  Near-term resistance is the 
$102-$105 level and may take a few days to get through, but a 
break back above the $106 level then brings $119 into play.  A 
good way to play this sector is to ease into an airline stock (I 
like Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) $18.94, trading ABOVE its 200-
day MA of $18), but keep an eye on your stock and the Airlines 
Index XAL.X.  You always want strength in the stock you're 
trading and it should get better if the group helps.

Paramount to protect gains!

I've gotten a lot of encouraging e-mails from subscribers that 
have been playing some of the bearish plays in our play list.  I 
still want to stress that a trader/investor that maybe "needs" a 
gain to help out their account or even their mental psyche can 
take a gain at anytime prior to one of our stopping levels.

Do what is right for you and your account.  The object of trading 
or investing isn't to necessarily try and "win the most," but to 
simply win!

Don't get complacent with your stops.  Yes, some software stocks 
have gotten "whacked" in recent sessions.  Some look like they 
are going to get "whacked."  It's usually when things start to 
look their worst that institutional bears come in and cover by 
surprise and will erase a nice quick gain in a trade you had on.

After hours news briefs

McData (MCDT) $12.55 -1.95% ... stock got "whacked" in after-
hours to $10.50 after the storage networking company warned on 
earnings. 

This has other storage names like QLGC, EMLX, NTAP and direct 
competitor BRCD trading lower in after hours trading.

Then, later in the evening, the phones must have been ringing at 
EMC Corporation (NYSE:EMC)$11.71 +2.27%, as the storage equipment 
supplier to McData said, "we will not comment on any implications 
the warning by our supplier McData may have on our own business."

After hour's traders then sold the stock of EMC down 31-cents at 
$11.40 in after-hours trading. 

Minnesota Mining (MMM) $114.20 +1.07% ... Stock active in after-
hours for listed NYSE stock after Dow component guides higher. 
MMM saying it expects Q1 EPS to be at or slightly above $1.20 per 
share, versus previously expected range of $1.05-$1.20 and 
consensus of $1.11.  Also saying worldwide sales volumes declined 
about 4.5% in Q1, near the midpoint of expected range.
Trading near the $116.85 in after-hours. 

Jeff Bailey
Senior Market Technician


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (Bullish)
=========================
(( new High Risk/Reward Stock Long play ))

Southwest Airlines - LUV - cls: 18.94 chg: +0.50 stop: 17.99

Company Description:
Southwest Airlines currently serves 59 airports in 58 cities in 
30 states. Based in Dallas, Southwest currently operates more 
than 2,700 flights a day. (source: company website)

Why We Like It:
We have had our eyes on the Airlines sector for a while.  The 
downdraft on Tuesday that took the index under the 100 mark 
really had us worried that a more prolonged bout of profit taking 
or selling was in store.  Fortunately, the 50-dma helped saved 
the index even though the group was already below its 200-dma.  
Today's bounce in the XAL back above the 100 level was fueled by 
the drop in oil prices, which have had a huge run up with the 
conflict in the Mid East.  Since the longer-term up trending 
channel is still in affect for the XAL we are giving shares of 
LUV a chance to do some up trending of its own.  Southwest (LUV), 
like much of the rest of the group has been under selling 
pressure for all of March.  Yet buyers have been supporting the 
stock just above the $18 level and the 200-dma supports this 
level.  LUV also has a longer-term ascending channel and the 
recent lows near $18 are at the bottom of this channel.  We are a 
little bit early in the play as the short-term trend of lower 
highs (a bearish trend) is still in affect but LUV may have 
signaled the first change in that trend today.  Technically, the 
stock has overhead resistance at its 50-dma near $19.00, at 
$20.00, which is historical and round-number price resistance and 
then again at $22, which is February's highs.  Traders will want 
to keep an ear open for news in the Mid East as any resolution or 
even a short-term truce could have the price of oil in retreat.  
This could be a strong catalyst for buyers to rotate back into 
airlines - at least for a few days.  We are going to be a bit 
aggressive with our target and will exit the play if LUV can make 
it to $21.50.  We'll leave the last 50 cents to resistance for 
everyone else.  Our initial stop will be $17.99, just under the 
200-dma.  This is more of a high-risk play because we are early 
on the entry (shares still in a short-term downtrend) and the 
sector is sensitive to any news events overseas.


Picked on April 4th at $18.94
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 





================
Market Sentiment
================

Tech Tells
By Eric Utley

Corporate IT spending is weak, terribly weak.  Is it safe to
assume that much?  The market, specifically the tech sector, is
coming to that realization.  Hopefully readers of this column
were informed ahead of the crowd by the shift in the Nasdaq-100
Bullish Percent ($BPNDX), which seems like it happened forever
ago.  Interestingly, some of the hardest hit tech stocks have
been the components of the Nasdaq-100 (NDX.X).  PeopleSoft
(NASDAQ:PSFT), CheckPoint (NASDAQ:CHKP), and Compuware
(NASDAQ:CPWR) come to mind.

After the bell, McData (NASDAQ:MCDT) warned...again.  The
Emc (NYSE:EMC) spinoff was whacked in the after hours for its
shortfall.  Watch others in the data storage biz tomorrow,
such as Brocade (NASDAQ:BRCD), QLogic (NASDAQ:QLGC), and
Emulex (NASDAQ:EMLX).

End market demand has not returned to the information technology
segment of the market.  That's the space -- the NDX.X -- which
holds the greatest downside risk in my opinion.  If this
economy is truly headed for a rebound, then we need to see
further improvement in those stocks most tied to the business
cycle before even thinking bullish about tech.  It's far too
early in the cycle.

I was encouraged by the rebound in the Dow Jones Transports
($TRAN) Thursday, but want to see some follow-through.  The
transports are type of stocks that are going to carry the
market higher at this point in the cycle, not technology.  The
3Ms (NYSE:MMM) of the world are going to do it.

The only major development in sentiment data over the last two
days was the reversal of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Bullish Percent ($BPINDU) into Bear Alert.  The $BPNDX did
drop five more stocks Thursday.  ARMS numbers are approaching
extreme, while the fear gauges are ticking higher.  The
combination of these events, I think, adds to bearish
conviction over the intermediate-term.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages


DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 11350
52-week Low :  8062
Current     : 10235

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10348
 50-dma: 10152
200-dma:  9967

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1316
52-week Low :  945
Current     : 1126

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1140
 50-dma: 1128
200-dma: 1139


Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 2071
52-week Low : 1089
Current     : 1397

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1440
 50-dma: 1468
200-dma: 1527


Airlines ($XAL)

The XAL bounced back in Thursday's session after several days
of weakness.  The index captured the day's best performing sector
spot with its 3.32 percent gain.  The strength in the Dow Jones
Transports ($TRAN) helped.

Leading gainers included shares of America West (NYSE:AWA), U.S.
Airways (NYSE:U), Northwest (NASDAQ:NWAC), and Continental
(NYSE:CAL).

52-week High: 153
52-week Low :  59
Current     : 100

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 102
 50-dma:  98
200-dma: 102


Software ($GSO)

The GSO won the day's worst performing sector spot once again
Thursday.  Compuware (NASDAQ:CPWR) and CheckPoint (NASDAQ:CHKP)
were to blame.

The worst performing components of the GSO included the
aforementioned two names, along with Inktomi (NASDAQ:INKT),
Rational (NASDAQ:RATL), WebMethods (NASDAQ:WEBM).

52-week High: 246
52-week Low : 112
Current     : 148

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 160
 50-dma: 169
200-dma: 173

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Volatility

The VIX hit another weekly high Thursday morning but pulled back
as the day wore on and stocks gained strength.  I'm watching the
50-dma at 22.72 as a possible pause in fear.

The VXN finally broke above the 40 level in Wednesday's session
and continued higher in Thursday's.  Fear is on the rise among
NDX shares.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) - 20.68 +0.63
Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index  (VXN) - 39.32 +2.87

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume
Total          0.82        463,651       379,790
Equity Only    0.78        410,397       319,390
OEX            0.91         10,822         9,805
QQQ            1.17         47,884        56,053
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          64      + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    45      - 5     Bull Correction
DOW           67      - 3     Bear Alert
S&P 500       72      - 2     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       73      - 1     Bull Confirmed

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-Day Arms Index  1.42
10-Day Arms Index  1.30
21-Day Arms Index  1.15
55-Day Arms Index  1.21

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early, 
but when the do, they can signal significant market turning 
points.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

        Advancers     Decliners
NYSE      1722           1390
NASDAQ    1778           1696

        New Highs      New Lows
NYSE       85             40
NASDAQ    110             51

        Volume (in millions)
NYSE     1,267
NASDAQ   1,544

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/26/02

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercial traders grew more bearish during the most recent
reporting period by dropping a number of long positions while
maintaining their number of shorts.  Meanwhile, small traders
reached their most bullish net position in more than a year.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
03/12/02      396,050   483,606   (87,556)   (9.9%)
03/19/02      322,938   410,494   (87,556)  (11.9%)
03/26/02      317,671   410,186   (92,515)  (12.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -   3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/12/02      179,825     75,025  104,800     42.6%
03/19/02      145,262     43,066  102,196     54.3%
03/26/02      148,111     40,409  107,702     57.1%

Most bearish reading of the year:  36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 107,702 - 3/26/02
 
NASDAQ-100

Commercials didn't do much in the last week.  The group's
net bearish position dropped by only 300 contracts.  Small
traders added a small number of longs.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
03/12/02       37,415     42,942    (5,527)   (6.9%)
03/19/02       24,792     33,699    (8,907)  (15.2%)
03/26/02       25,275     33,880    (8,605)  (14.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) -  3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   7,774  - 12/21/01

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
03/12/02       14,571    13,045     1,526      5.5%
03/19/02       11,637     5,527     6,110     35.6%
03/26/02       12,760     6,264     6,496     34.1% 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (9,877) - 12/21/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,460  -  3/13/01

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders shed a significant number of long positions,
while dropping a small number of short positions.  The result
was a drop in the group's net bullish position.  Small traders
added longs and dropped shorts for a drop in the group's net
bearish position.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/12/02       35,080    23,204   11,876     20.4%
03/19/02       20,858    13,283    7,575     22.2%
03/26/02       17,973    12,539    5,434     17.8% 

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
03/12/02        6,400    13,070    (6,670)   (34.3%)
03/19/02        4,651    10,367    (5,716)   (38.1%)
03/26/02        5,818     9,308    (3,490)   (23.1%) 

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   1,909  -  1/16/01

-----------------------------------------------------------------




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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                          04-04-2002
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright  2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================
To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:
http://www.PremierInvestor.net/htmlemail/d04b_2.asp
=================================================================

In section two:

Net Bulls
  Bullish Play Updates:  SNE
  Bearish Play Updates:  BCE, BRCM, CSCO, CVG, ISSX, RETK
  Closed Bullish Plays:  NVLS
  Closed Bearish Plays:  CHKP


Stock Bottom / Active Trader
  Bullish Play Updates:  CAH, DOL, OHP, PSS
  Closed Bullish Play:   HC

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     LUV
  Bullish Play Updates:  HIG
  Bearish Play Updates:  QCOM

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

                         

==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

===============
NB Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sony Corp (ADR) - SNE - close: 52.71 change: +0.25 stop: 47.99

The Nikkei Index snapped a 3-day winning streak as several major 
issues gave into profit taking.  Despite the pull back shares of 
SNE managed to trade higher and trigger our bullish entry at 
$53.01 before slipping lower.  Now that we are in the play our 
stop is at $47.99, however, more conservative traders might 
attempt to use a stop closer to the $50 mark instead.  If the 
Japanese market is going to pull back for a day or two, traders 
here may want to sit back and wait to see if we can get a better 
entry on SNE.  Dips to $51.50 or $52.00 are probably buyable.

Picked on April 4th at $53.01
Gain since picked:      -0.30
Earnings Date        04/25/02 (unconfirmed)
 



  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

B C E Inc. - BCE - close: 17.87 change: -0.18 stop: 18.61

The telecom sector continues to fall prey to hungry bears and BCE 
is no exception.  On Tuesday we were concerned that BCE might 
make a bid to touch its 10-dma or even try and tackle the $19.00 
level again.  We didn't want to let our current gains evaporate 
to zero so we lowered our stop to $18.61 with the expectation 
that the $18.50 level would act as resistance.  It just so 
happens that shares of BCE traded to $18.53 on Wednesday before 
pulling back with the broader market declines.  The rollover 
today makes the whole three-day performance look like a failed 
rally and bounce attempt by the bulls.  Optimists will claim that 
the recent two day moves have been on low volume, which doesn't 
communicate much conviction but price is the only thing that 
matters at the end of the day.  We suspect more weakness in the 
telecom group as the IXTCX fell under the 170 level of support 
yesterday.  Additionally, there was more bad news scattered 
across the industry today.  Moody's cut fellow Canadian-based 
Nortel Networks (NT) credit rating and shares slipped 2.5% to 
$4.24.  Denver-based Qwest (Q) announced that they were under a 
formal SEC probe regarding its accounting practices. Plus, mobile 
communications QUALCOMM (QCOM) was downgraded by Piper Jaffray 
with the broker claiming the companies estimates were too 
aggressive.  Overall it's a very negative environment and BCE 
could be setting up for a move to the $15.00 level.  Traders 
should be aware that the MACD is showing a divergence in its 
histogram but the indicator is probably reacting to the recent 
consolidation after the large move down in the last three weeks.

Picked on March 22nd at $19.40
Gain since picked:       +1.53
Earnings Date         04/23/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Broadcom Corp - BRCM - close: 34.36 change: +0.61 stop: 38.45

We are a bit surprised at the strength shares of BRCM are showing 
with the relative weakness in the broader market.  The Nasdaq has 
fallen under the 1800 level, which helped BRCM slip to new 
relative lows on Wednesday.  Like the Nasdaq's failed attempt to 
reclaim the 1800 level today, shares of BRCM traded up to the $35 
area before pulling back again.  We continue to target the $30 
level and the failed rally at $35 may have been another entry 
point.  However, traders may want to confirm the stock's 
direction before committing new capital.  

Picked on March 25th at $35.75
Gain since picked:       +1.39
Earnings Date         04/17/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 16.87 change: +0.27 stop: see text

We've come so close to pulling the plug on this open untriggered 
short play for CSCO and each day we consider shelving it 
something else in the news re-ignites our interest.  Today was 
full of bad news for the telecom group and while CSCO is more of 
a hardware supplier the news still affects investor sentiment.  
In the news was a credit downgrade of Nortel Networks (NT), which 
will raise borrowing costs for the CSCO rival.  Plus, there was 
the dramatic earnings warning by Check Point Software (CHKP).  
Check Point is a security software company.  CSCO has become 
somewhat of a competitor against CHKP for security products but 
CHKP may be suffering due to lost marketshare to CSCO (this is 
speculation on our part).  Whatever the case, lower IT spending 
and delayed sales is a variable that is likely to affect CSCO as 
well.  Another significant development was the announcement that 
Qwest (Q) is now under a formal SEC probe for its accounting 
practices.  Again, Q is not a direct competitor with CSCO but the 
news is not a good sign for the industry and CSCO could be on the 
target list for SEC investigation (again, this is speculation on 
our part).  Despite it all shares of CSCO traded up today.  We 
maintain a trigger to go short if shares of CSCO trade at or 
below $15.90 however we are going to add a downside limit to this 
entry.  Our new entry to short CSCO will be if the stock trades 
between $15.90 and $15.50.  We will NOT short the stock if shares 
open below $15.50.  Hopefully, this will protect us if the 
company does announce negative news and shares gap down 
drastically.  

Picked on March xth at $xx.xx <- See text
Gain since picked:      +0.00
Earnings Date        05/07/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Convergys - CVG - close: 29.04 change: +0.59 stop: 30.01 *new*

After three days of lower highs and lower lows shares of CVG 
rebounded today with a 2% gain and a close over the $29.00 level.  
Volume has been dropping after the gap down April 1st and we're 
really not concerned just yet that CVG might be reversing.  The 
$29.50 to $30.00 level should be very strong overhead resistance 
and we suspect the bears will reassert their grip on the stock 
once this oversold bounce is finished.  Traders can look for new 
entry points at failed rallies near the previously mentioned 
resistance.  We're going to lower our stop to $30.01, which 
should reduce our exposure to just a hair over one dollar.  
Remember, our official exit price is $25.51, if shares trade at 
or below this level we'll close the play.

Picked on April 1st at $28.99 
Change since picked:    -0.05
Earnings Date        01/24/02 (confirmed)
 



---

Internet Security - ISSX - cls: 20.90 chg: -1.29 stop: 23.76 *new*

As shares of rival CHKP get a 19% haircut today, ISSX was guilty 
by association and lost 5.8% on its own.  CHKP pre-announced that 
Q1 earnings would be below estimates citing a weak IT spending 
environment.  This should be nothing new to Premier Investor 
readers as we have been talking about how IT budgets have been 
tight and a lot of sales have been pushed back to later in the 
year.  ISSX opened at $19.54 this morning but posted a strong 
bounce before basing along the $20 level for most of the day.  We 
suspect that the end of day rally in ISSX may have been some 
short-covering but we remain encouraged with the stock's 
performance.  Investor fears and uncertainty over Q1 earnings 
will begin to focus on ISSX now that CHKP has warned.  Volume was 
strong today and we suspect the stock might trade to the $22 
level before rolling over again.  Aggressive traders may want to 
look for entries there or a close under the $20 mark.  We're 
going to cinch our stop down another quarter to $23.76.  More 
conservative traders could use yesterday's highs as a guideline.
Readers should also note that our original profit target was the 
$20.00 mark.  Now that this has been achieved, short-term traders 
should have already or begin to take profits.  We have elected to 
keep the play active with the weakness in CHKP and the software 
group as a whole.

Picked on March 26th at $22.58 
Gain since picked:       +1.68
Earnings Date         04/16/02 (unconfirmed)
 



---

Retek Inc. - RETK - close: 23.16 change: -0.41 stop: 25.01 *new*

We were triggered early on Wednesday when shares of RETK traded 
through our entry price of $24.99.  Since then the stock has 
moved below its 50-dma and has now closed below the $24 level.  A 
quick look at the PnF chart shows a triple-bottom breakdown.  
Volume has been heavy on the recent declines but remember we're 
looking for a quick in and out on this play.  Now that we're 
triggered our exit is $20.51 (this is a 2-cent change from the 
original write up that said $20.49).  If shares of RETK trade at 
or below this level we'll close the play.  However, readers 
should remember that we suspect support exits at the $20.00 
level, which is both round-number psychological support and 
rising bullish support on the PnF chart.  We are going to lower 
our stop to $25.01 (pretty much breakeven) but more conservative 
traders might be able to get away with today's high ($24.40).  
Currently Premier is up more than 7% in the play.

Picked on April 3rd at $24.99 
Change since picked:    +1.83
Earnings Date        01/22/02 (confirmed)
 





===============
NB Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bullish Play
  -------------------

Novellus Systems - NVLS - cls: 51.07 chg: +0.82 stop: N/A   

So far so good...yup, we were never triggered in this long play 
so we don't have any (hypothetical) money at risk.  We still 
think NVLS would be attractive with a breakout over the $55 
resistance level.  Yet looking at the PnF chart and the action in 
the SOX.X it will probably look a whole lot better if we get a 
chance to buy it at $46 or $47.  We'll keep it on our internal 
watch list for a potential play.  In the meantime, more 
aggressive traders could attempt to play the bounce here at the 
$50 mark but do so only with a tight stop.  

Picked on March xth at  $xx.xx
Change since picked:     +0.00 <- see text
Earnings Date         04/15/02 (unconfirmed)
 




  -------------------
  Closed Bearish Play
  -------------------

Check Point Software - CHKP - cls: 22.07 chg: -5.39 stop: N/A

Wow!  Talk about being in the right stock at the right time.  
We'd already been successful in this short play, and actually 
lowered our stop last night after CHKP started firming up near 
$27.  Then came this morning's earnings warning, which hit the 
stock like a Mack truck.  The company announced its Q1 results 
would come in at 24-25 cents/share, as opposed to the 29 
cents/share that Wall Street had expected.  Shares gapped down 
over 20% on the news and hit an intraday low of $20.09 before 
rebounding to finish at $22.07.  The selling came on monster 
volume of 56M shares...that appears to be the largest one-day 
volume in the company's history.  In light of the big move, we're 
ending this play as of today's close.  We actually stated our 
decision to close the play tonight in our 3:00 p.m. ET intraday 
update so everyone would get a chance before the market closed.  
It would be ludicrous to look a gift horse in the mouth and try 
to hang out for a few more points, especially considering that 
the stock bounced from its descending regression channel at $20.  
Traders who entered at our original entry price of $33.28 would 
be wise to lock in a 33.7% gain.  Traders still looking to short 
software security stocks might want to take a look at ISSX 
(currently on our Play List) or VRSN.

Picked on March 14th at $33.28
Gain since picked:      +11.21
Earnings Date         01/15/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================


===============
AT Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cardinal Health - CAH - close: 70.09 change: -1.21 stop: 67.49

CAH lost 1.69% on fairly strong volume of 3.2M today.  Shares 
couldn't rally over resistance at $72 when the HMO.X health 
provider index was setting all-time highs, so it wasn't 
surprising to see the stock pull back on a day when the index 
actually lost ground.  $70 was previously resistance, so it's 
encouraging to see a close over that level.  Aggressive traders 
might want to consider entries if CAH bounces from current 
levels.  The HMO has been consolidating in a narrow range above 
510.  A move above 520 could clear the way for another leg 
higher, while a breakdown below 500 would be a negative 
development.

Picked on March 22nd at $70.05
Gain since picked:       +0.04
Earnings Date         04/23/02 (unconfirmed)




---

Dole Food CO. - DOL - close: 30.72 change: -0.13 stop: 30.31*new*

DOL needs to either shape up or ship out.  We've given the stock 
over a month to perform, but thus far it's mostly traded 
sideways.  In all fairness, it's held up reasonably well over the 
last few days of broader market selling and is less than a point 
away from setting new 52-week highs.  We're going to challenge 
DOL with a tight stop at $30.31, just under today's low.  The 
decreasing selling volume this week is promising, but the 
stochastics are looking negative.  Wait for the stock to prove 
itself before considering new entries.

Picked on March 1st at $30.94
Gain since picked:      -0.22
Earnings Date        01/31/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Oxford Health - OHP - close: 40.83 change: -0.21 stop: 39.90

Wednesday saw OHP make yet another attempt to break through 
resistance at $42.  Once again, the bears held firm.  This is 
somewhat vexing, because the HMO.X health provider index set an 
all-time high yesterday.  OHP had been displaying relative 
strength versus the index, but $42 seems to be keeping a lid on 
any bullish momentum.  Traders can consider going long on the 
stock with moves above this level, but be sure to confirm 
positive sentiment on the HMO.  The oscillators indicate that a 
test of support at $40 is almost a sure thing:  Daily stochastics 
are trending down and the MACD just signaled a bearish crossover.  
This doesn't mean that OHP can't head higher, but it's something 
to keep in mind when evaluating possible trades.  A bounce at $40 
wouldn't be a bad place to consider new trades but our stop is 
pretty close at $39.90.

Picked on March 8th at $38.55
Gain since picked       +2.28
Earnings Date        02/05/02 (confirmed)




--- 

Payless Shoesource - PSS - close: 60.09 change: +0.39 stop: 58.75

Like the soles on an old pair of tennis shoes, our patience is 
wearing a bit thin.  PSS has been trading sideways near $60 and 
is showing no signs of heading higher.  Oscillators are mixed, 
with the stochastics looking bullish and MACD looking bearish.  
On a more positive note, the stock managed to weather this week's 
retail storm in fairly strong fashion.  Due to the lack of 
direction we wouldn't recommend new entries at current levels.  A 
move above recent highs at $61.45 might catch our interest, but 
until then the trend is decidedly flat.  If shares don't start 
moving soon we'll likely be taking our money elsewhere.

Picked on March 15th at $61.74
Gain since picked:       -1.65
Earnings Date         02/22/02 (confirmed)





===============
AT Closed Plays
===============

  -------------------
  Closed Bullish Play
  -------------------

Hanover Compressor - HC - close: 19.53 change: -0.28 stop: 19.48

Too bad it's not always this easy.  Just as we had anticipated, 
HC triggered a p-n-f triple-top alert at $18.50 and shot towards 
the $20 level.  A sharp move higher in natural gas futures 
(ng02k) helped to fuel HC's 11% rise in just four days.  Today 
the stock chose to pause after being turned back by the 100-dma 
at $20.33.  The subsequent profit-taking was enough to drop HC 
below our tight stop at $19.48.  This should have been good for a 
6.68% gain.  We're still feeling bullish on this stock, and 
believe it has upside potential far above the $20-$21 resistance 
level.  If you're interested in HC as a long-term play, we'll be 
taking a long-term position if shares pull back between $18.01 
and $18.99.  You can view our long-term play write up on HC on 
the website.  However, it is not yet on the actual play list so 
check the left navigation for the non-tech long-term plays.

Picked on April 1st at $18.26
Gain since picked:      +1.22 
Earnings Date        03/28/02 (confirmed)






==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

===============
HR New Plays
===============

  ----------------
  New Bullish Play
  ----------------

Southwest Airlines - LUV - cls: 18.94 chg: +0.50 stop: 17.99

Company Description:
Southwest Airlines currently serves 59 airports in 58 cities in 
30 states. Based in Dallas, Southwest currently operates more 
than 2,700 flights a day. (source: company website)

Why We Like It:
We have had our eyes on the Airlines sector for a while.  The 
downdraft on Tuesday that took the index under the 100 mark 
really had us worried that a more prolonged bout of profit taking 
or selling was in store.  Fortunately, the 50-dma helped saved 
the index even though the group was already below its 200-dma.  
Today's bounce in the XAL back above the 100 level was fueled by 
the drop in oil prices, which have had a huge run up with the 
conflict in the Mid East.  Since the longer-term up trending 
channel is still in affect for the XAL we are giving shares of 
LUV a chance to do some up trending of its own.  Southwest (LUV), 
like much of the rest of the group has been under selling 
pressure for all of March.  Yet buyers have been supporting the 
stock just above the $18 level and the 200-dma supports this 
level.  LUV also has a longer-term ascending channel and the 
recent lows near $18 are at the bottom of this channel.  We are a 
little bit early in the play as the short-term trend of lower 
highs (a bearish trend) is still in affect but LUV may have 
signaled the first change in that trend today.  Technically, the 
stock has overhead resistance at its 50-dma near $19.00, at 
$20.00, which is historical and round-number price resistance and 
then again at $22, which is February's highs.  Traders will want 
to keep an ear open for news in the Mid East as any resolution or 
even a short-term truce could have the price of oil in retreat.  
This could be a strong catalyst for buyers to rotate back into 
airlines - at least for a few days.  We are going to be a bit 
aggressive with our target and will exit the play if LUV can make 
it to $21.50.  We'll leave the last 50 cents to resistance for 
everyone else.  Our initial stop will be $17.99, just under the 
200-dma.  This is more of a high-risk play because we are early 
on the entry (shares still in a short-term downtrend) and the 
sector is sensitive to any news events overseas.


Picked on April 4th at $18.94
Change since picked:    +0.00
Earnings Date        04/18/02 (unconfirmed)
 





===============
HR Play Updates
===============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Hartford Financial Svc - HIG - cls: 68.50 chg: +0.37 stop: 66.04

HIG has been traded sideways over the past few sessions, but that 
isn't necessarily a bad thing when you consider that broader 
market has been weak.  The ability of shares to maintain support 
at $68 is positive, as is the MACD, which is beginning to curl 
higher.  Aggressive traders can think about going long if shares 
climb above Tuesday's high of $68.87, but be aware that 
resistance may emerge at $70.  Dip-buyers might get a decent 
entry if HIG bounces again from $68.  Note that we tightened our 
stop to $66.04 last night.  This should prevent us from getting 
caught in a breakdown below the 50-dma.

Picked on March 13th at $65.74
Change since picked:     +2.76
Earnings Date         01/28/02 (confirmed)
 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

QUALCOMM - QCOM - close: 36.60 change: -1.04 stop: 39.47 *new*

Things are starting to get ugly for QCOM.  The stock had been 
weak since a failed rally near $40, but in recent sessions found 
support at $37.  That level was abandoned today after a downgrade 
from Piper Jaffray.  In addition to lowering its rating, the firm 
also cut QCOM's price target from $50 to $38, based on overly 
optimistic growth estimates.  Shares gave up 2.8% and closed at 
levels not seen in a month.  Now that QCOM has fallen though $37, 
a move to our target area of $32-$33 is not out of the question.  
Aggressive traders could target entries at current levels, but be 
aware that psychological support at $35 may bolster the stock.  
Also note that we're tightening our stop to break-even, at 
$39.47.  The stock was down slightly in after-hours after QCOM 
said they had detected an error in their chip-sets.  We have 
considered issuing an exit price to close the play on any 
intraday spike down and it is not a bad idea for traders to have 
their exit price plugged in with their broker.  However, as the 
stock might trade lower than the February lows we're going to 
keep our options open for now.  Rest assured that if QCOM does 
trade near our target of $33 we'll tighten our stop 
significantly.

Picked on March 25th at $39.47
Change since picked:     +2.87
Earnings Date         04/24/02 (unconfirmed)






==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.


--------------------------------- 
Value Plays With Bullish Signals 
--------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

WM      Washington Mutual Inc      34.63     +1.03
FRE     Freddie Mac                66.50     +1.37
CAG     Conagra Foods              25.64     +0.84
GSB     Golden State Bancorp       31.51     +0.94
FBAN    FNB Corp                   30.23     +0.98

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

CTAC    1-800 Contacts Inc         14.05     +1.84

--------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) 
--------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AOC     AON Corp                   37.15     +1.18
MON     Monsanto Co                32.76     +1.30
SVU     Supervalu Inc              27.32     +1.52
PIR     Pier 1 Imports             21.75     +1.45
CMOS    Credence Systems Corp      22.26     +1.14
DIAN    Dianon Systems             67.85     +4.42

------------------------------------------- 
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) 
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

AVE     Aventis                    66.60     -1.86
MRK     Merck & Co                 55.80     -1.49
BMY     Bristol-Myers Squibb Co    32.15     -5.55
SGP     Schering-Plough Corp       29.25     -1.52
EDS     Electronic Data Systems    54.05     -1.60

----------------------------------------- 
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
------------------------------------------- 
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change 

PCG     PG&E Corp                  22.41     -0.34
NBR     Nabors Industries Inc      41.62     -0.62
FLS     Flowserve Corp             30.04     -2.10




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